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dorlomin

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #100 on: January 19, 2015, 09:56:54 PM »
Take it for granted you are wrong.
Just try to work out what about and why.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #101 on: January 19, 2015, 10:00:33 PM »
Thank you BigB! :)

Btw, I checked out the linked you provided.. The SOI-value of -85,72 from May 31 in 1997 must be one of the absolutely lowest value ever..

And, just I mentioned in earlier post, I do believe that the rise in 30-day avg will be followed by an even lower bottom until a full fledged El Niño emerges..

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #102 on: January 20, 2015, 12:13:30 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM yesterday, and today, indicate that the 30-day moving average SOI dropped down to -5.0 yesterday and then down to -6.1 today (and thus remains neutral):

20141219,20150117,-5.0
20141220,20150118,-6.1


Edit: Attached is today's plot
« Last Edit: January 20, 2015, 03:30:28 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Michael Hauber

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #103 on: January 20, 2015, 04:55:44 AM »
It would have to stay at or above 0.5 through to the Jan Feb Mar season.

Doesn't the pentad centred on 13 Jan 2015 on the 'Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific' page look more like a La Nina is coming?

The remaining near surface heat in East Pacific seems to have dwindled so much, won't those negative anomalies just below take over?

But then I know very little and perhaps 7th Jan was the bottom of that oscillation and now the heat will suddenly start becoming much more extensive again.

In the far east there is almost constant upwelling of cooler water from below, except in extreme el nino conditions such as 97/98 when the trade winds reverse.  In a moderate el nino it is a case that the trade winds are still blowing in a weakened mode and significant upwelling is still trying to bring cooler water to the surface.  In such conditions the warm water near the surface in the east will always be eroded from below unless Kelvin wave activity from the west acts to a) push some warm water from the west towards the east, and b) acts to significantly supress this upwelling, or c) the subsurface anomalies are very strong - i.e. +6 or greater so that upwelling is pulling up water almost as warm as what is already on the surface.

From my investigation of past ENSO events the amount of Kelvin wave activity is the strongest factor in whether the east cools or warms.

There is a lot of warm water below the surface and also just south of the equator in the west to fuel tropical convection while the summer/monsoon is in the SH.  The NH ridge is significantly eroded by a strong warm PDO pattern.  A good set up for westerly wind bursts.  However not much different from the periods around June and November when the westerly wind activity died and this El Nino went backward.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #104 on: January 20, 2015, 04:32:16 PM »
The two attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending January 18 2015.  The first image shows that the Nino 3.4 index is still below the El Nino threshold at +0.49.
The second image shows that the IOD is increasing but is still negative.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #105 on: January 20, 2015, 04:35:19 PM »
The attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending January 18 2015 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  The Nino 1,2 & 3 indices are all down, while the Nino 4 index is up, suggesting the possibility of a Modoki event.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #106 on: January 20, 2015, 07:44:05 PM »
Daily SOI-value at -40,98. This is due to the possible formation of a TC north of Tahiti. 30-day moving average down back to -8 bordering to El Niño conditions.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #107 on: January 20, 2015, 10:29:30 PM »
TS 7 have now formed north of Tahiti and should quickly intensify to a cat 2 hurricane in a day or so, perhaps even reaching major hurricane satus before weakening occurs. should be able to push down the daily SOI index really low.. But of course it depends on how low the SLP will be when the cyclone is at its closest by tomorrow or by thursday.. Given this situation we should see some really low SOI values the next 2-3 days, perhaps it could bottom out at -50, -60 or even as low as -70...

http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #108 on: January 21, 2015, 12:46:25 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.7:

20141221,20150119,-6.7


Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: January 21, 2015, 03:24:16 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #109 on: January 21, 2015, 12:51:03 AM »
Today the BoM also issued the following biweekly ENSO overview, in which they drop their ENSO tracker to neutral:

"Since late 2014, most ENSO indicators have eased back from borderline El Niño levels. As the natural seasonal cycle of ENSO is now entering the decay phase, and models indicate a low chance of an immediate return to El Niño levels, neutral conditions are considered the most likely scenario through into autumn.

Central tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures have fallen by around half a degree from their peak of 1.1 °C above average in late November. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index has weakened to values more consistent with neutral conditions, while recent cloud patterns show little El Niño signature. As all models surveyed by the Bureau favour a continuation of these neutral conditions in the coming months, the immediate threat of El Niño onset appears passed for the 2014–15 cycle. Hence the ENSO Tracker has been reset to NEUTRAL. The Tracker will remain at NEUTRAL unless observations and model outlooks indicate a heightened risk of either La Niña or El Niño developing later this year."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #110 on: January 21, 2015, 06:26:04 AM »
The attached TAO plots show subsurface temperature means and anomalies for data ending Jan 13th (plots on the left), and Jan 19th (plots on the right). As expected, notice that positive subsurface anomalies are starting to increase (up to +2.5 deg C) under central equatorial Pacific. This would be thanks to the recent bout of westerly winds/anomalies in the western Pacific. Also, notice the cool upwelling Kelvin wave located beneath the eastern equatorial Pacific. I suspect that cool anomalies associated with the upwelling Kelvin wave will become evident on the surface within the next few weeks, and that things will begin to cool down at that time, but likely remain within neutral territory. This is why the renewed warming trend is likely to be short lived/temporary (as I've been saying). Based various weather and climate model projections and real time data, it's very unlikely that this relatively weak cool upwelling Kelvin wave will result in, or support La Nina conditions (maybe cool neutral). Especially, with a new downwelling Kelvin wave already on its way east.

OF NOTE: Per CDAS data, updated on Jan 20 at 18z, the Nino 3.4 region is up to +0.613 (See Link).

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

Michael Hauber,

Good response to crandles.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #111 on: January 21, 2015, 09:28:46 PM »
LMV,

Good monitoring! TC Niko is projected to pass by just to the east of Tahiti during the next 24 hours. Due to Niko's small size (34 kt winds only extend outward up to 80 miles from the center as of Jan 21st at 18:00 UTC) and moderate forward speed (10 kts as of Jan 21 at 18:00 UTC), the window of opportunity to lower SLP in that region is during the next 24 hours. After that, Niko will likely be too far away. We can't forget to monitor SLP at Darwin as well, as SLP in that region is the other half of the SOI. SLP at Darwin looks to remain relatively elevated for the next few days (which would set up good conditions for strong negative daily SOI values), but models do suggest that SLP could possibly drop some (reducing the chances of significantly strong negative daily SOI values). It's worth noting that two very strong (near -40) daily SOI values will be exiting the 30 day avg tomorrow (Jan 22) and Friday (Jan 23). Therefore, if strong negative daily SOI values do occur during the next two days, they will likely be canceled out by the daily SOI values exiting the 30 day avg (but at least this would allow the 30 day avg to stay around borderline El Nino territory). Weak high pressure is projected to pass over Tahiti early next week (Jan 26th or 27th). It'll be interesting to see what happens.

SIDE NOTE: Per the latest CDAS data, updated on Jan 21 at 12z, the Nino 3.4 region is up to +0.717

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #112 on: January 22, 2015, 02:09:23 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -7.4:
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #113 on: January 22, 2015, 08:07:02 PM »
Daily SOI value from Longpaddock at -32,07. Seems to be rising the next days. Niko is now east of Tahiti and will move away from Tahiti..

Latest GFS forecast for Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) hints the possibility of a more active MJO-phase by the end of January and the beginning of February. The run before was impinging a very strong phase. This is something to watch for the next couple of days!


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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #114 on: January 23, 2015, 12:25:31 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -7.5 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #115 on: January 23, 2015, 08:19:00 PM »
The attached TAO plots show subsurface temperature means and anomalies for data ending Jan 13th (plots on the left), and Jan 19th (plots on the right).

For comparison with the TAO Jan 19th (plots on the right), the attached NOAA image of the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for the week ending Jan 18 2015, support the idea that a relatively shallow downwelling EKW is moving eastward from the Western Pacific.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #116 on: January 24, 2015, 01:31:49 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI have moved up to -7.2 (and thus remains neutral):

20141224,20150122,-7.2
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #117 on: January 24, 2015, 10:57:16 AM »
30-day moving average from Longpaddock is quickly dropping and was -11,95 for January 23. 90-day moving average continues down and was -8,88 for the date. It remains to see for how long this will continue!

10 days with SOI-values lower than -20 is the reason for this sharp drop in the 30-day moving SOI-average.

Interestingly, latest ECMWF forecast run hints the possibility of a continued negative values for the next 10 days. However, it will likely not be as low values as we have seen the last 10 days but more in a moderate range of -5 to -15.

MJO forecast hints a more active phase in WPAC by the beginning of February.

Of note, it's interseting to see how GFS/NOAA have backed markedly from the idea of a strong El Niño event by fall. Latest runs have been more in the moderate range...

k largo

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #118 on: January 24, 2015, 01:59:29 PM »
30-day moving average from Longpaddock is quickly dropping and was -11,95 for January 23. 90-day moving average continues down and was -8,88 for the date. It remains to see for how long this will continue!

10 days with SOI-values lower than -20 is the reason for this sharp drop in the 30-day moving SOI-average.

Interestingly, latest ECMWF forecast run hints the possibility of a continued negative values for the next 10 days. However, it will likely not be as low values as we have seen the last 10 days but more in a moderate range of -5 to -15.

MJO forecast hints a more active phase in WPAC by the beginning of February.

Of note, it's interseting to see how GFS/NOAA have backed markedly from the idea of a strong El Niño event by fall. Latest runs have been more in the moderate range...

The Long Paddock site has a software glitch. The low values for 21 Jan are repeated three times and those of 22 and 23 January twice. This gives a erroneously low 30 day value. Best to take the BoM reading for now.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #119 on: January 24, 2015, 04:15:25 PM »
k largo: Thx!! I didn't see that earlier! :) Shit happens! But nevertheless, the daily values have been low for a week now. Will be interesting to see for how long this will continue!

The correct values should instead be -8,04 and -7,92 respectively! Thus it, borderline El Niño conditions... At least, those values are more realistic!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #120 on: January 25, 2015, 01:14:15 AM »
The following data was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.3:

20141225,20150123,-7.3
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #121 on: January 25, 2015, 12:35:56 PM »
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00376-013-2260-7

Thought i'd add this link in here as DO phase appears linked to frequency of Nino/ninas?

Last years PDO swung positive and if the cycle is now shortened then we are about right to have it flip to its positive, nino predominant, phase?

Jans PDO figure looks likely to be positive again ( warm horse shoe all month) so the length of this 'interval' is becoming over long (IMHO) for it to be just 'variability' within a phase?

if the Nina run shows this new tendency in PDO then ought we not to expect similar when PDO+ve is established? We seem to have no shortage of ocean heat to fuel a run of Nino's ( or one hell of a Nino!!!!).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #122 on: January 26, 2015, 03:15:49 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -7.4 (and thus remains neutral):
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deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #123 on: January 26, 2015, 03:43:37 PM »
The Niño 3.4 region warmed to 0.6 C over the last week. Fourteen of the last 15 weeks have seen this region at or above 0.5 C, suggesting continued weak El Niño conditions into 2015.

                     Nino1+2       Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #124 on: January 26, 2015, 06:26:43 PM »
In the article shown, a new study finds that the frequency of extreme La Niña events may double in a warmed world. Moreover, please note that this seems to suggest a reaction to more amplified El Niño events: extreme El Niños to be followed by extreme La Niñas. Italics mine form emphasis.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/expect-twice-as-many-extreme-la-nina-events-under-climate-change-study-warns/?utm_content=buffer29d1f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Quote
Expect twice as many extreme La Niña events under climate change, study warns

But El Niño has a lesser-known sister, La Niña, which also has a dramatic impact on global weather. Now a new study suggests that we could see La Niña events occurring twice as often as the climate warms.

...

Scientists judge how strong a La Niña event is by how cold central Pacific Ocean temperatures get. To be an 'extreme' event, sea surface temperatures have to drop over 1.75 degrees Celsius lower than normal, as the map below shows.

Extreme La Niña events can cause havoc with global weather, says lead author  Dr Wenju Cai from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia. He tells Carbon Brief about some of the impacts of the extreme La Niña in 1998-99:

"The southwestern United States experienced one of the most severe droughts in history.  Venezuela endured flash flooding and landslides that killed 25,000 to 50,000 people. In China, river floods and storms led to the death of thousands, and displaced over 200 million people. Bangladesh experienced one of the most destructive flooding events in modern  history, with over 50 per cent of the country's land area flooded. While the 1998 North Atlantic hurricane season saw one of the deadliest and strongest hurricanes in the historical record, claiming more than 11,000 lives in Honduras and Nicaragua."

...

In a separate paper last year, Cai found that extreme El Niño events are also expected to occur more often in the future. Finding increases in both extreme La Niña and El Niño events may seem counterintuitive, Cai says:

"Extreme El Niño and extreme La Niña are opposite phases. If extreme El Niño increases in frequency, one would have thought that extreme La Niña would decrease in frequency. But this is not the case. And the increased frequency of extreme La Niña is in part linked to increased frequency extreme El Niño."

The new study finds that extreme El Niño events create the right conditions for an extreme La Niña to develop. This was seen at the end of the twentieth century when the 1998-99 La Niña followed the 1997-98 El Niño.

The study shows that three-quarters of extreme La Niña events in the future will happen in quick succession after an extreme El Niño event.

Whereas La Niña is often noted for having the impact of a short-term (same year) global cooling impact, it inflicts notorious damage on its spheres of influence. Floods in Queensland in 2010-2011 and the drought in the American southwest in 2011-present, for instance, likely have origins in the recent La Niña events in 2010-2012, and I believe their impacts were amplified by global climate change.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2015, 06:33:45 PM by deep octopus »

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #125 on: January 26, 2015, 09:45:53 PM »
Weak-moderate westerly wind anomalies have been in control of the Dateline and central equatorial Pacific for the better part of two weeks now. This has at least temporarily reversed the cooling process that started up back in mid December 2014. I suspect that SST's in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will likely begin cooling again within the next week. Weak easterly wind anomalies are projected to develop across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific during the next several days. Cool water associated with the upwelling Kelvin wave under the eastern Pacific is beginning to seep to the surface. The projected easterly wind anomalies will only act to help to promote further cooling (but based on current observations and forecasts, things should remain in neutral territory). It's worth noting that a small area/patch of weak-moderate westerly wind anomalies are projected to persist between 150E and 180 at least through very early Feb. This would be of most benefit to the developing downwelling Kelvin wave that's currently located under the Dateline and central equatorial Pacific (which per TAO data has actually strengthened some since the Jan 18th data).

I'm just gonna throw this out there: I suspect that the NOAA's ONI value for the NDJ three month season will likely come in at +0.7. This would be based on the monthly value for November and December coming in at +8.0 respectively, and that I believe the January value will come in at +0.5. Do the addition and division, and you get +0.7. I suspect that SSTA during Feb and March will be what keeps 2014-15 from reaching official El Nino status (per NOAA's definition). Since 1950, there's never been an ONI value to reach +0.7 that was not directly tied to an official El Nino year. If an official El Nino is not called for 2014-15, it will be a very strange to see an ONI value of +0.7, possibly two if the NDJ ONI value comes in at +0.7 as well.

EDIT: Here are the latest TAO subsurface plots of temperature means and anomalies for data through Jan 25th (first attachment), along with the GFS plot of zonal wind anomalies during the last 30 days and the 7 day forecast from Carl Schreck's website (second attachment):
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 01:02:56 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #126 on: January 27, 2015, 01:18:26 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.0:

20141227,20150125,-8.0

Edit: Here is the plot.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2015, 04:04:46 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #127 on: January 27, 2015, 04:12:11 PM »
The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 25 2015, and they indicate that both the Nino3.4 (at +0.5) and the IOD were relatively unchanged from last week.

The third & fourth attached images were issued today by NOAA, with the third image showing the Eq Pac Subsurface Temperature Anomalies indicates the small EKW near the International Dateline that is keeping the surface waters warm there, and the fourth image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. indicating that the small EKW if contributing to a small increase in the heat anomaly.


Also, the following was posted by the BoM today and confirms that the warm surface waters in the Central Tropical Pacific may lead to more cyclones in the coming months:

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued 27 January 2015
Niko, first South Pacific tropical cyclone this season
On 20 January, an area of low pressure near Tahiti developed to tropical cyclone strength and tracked south across French Polynesia. Tropical cyclone Niko was not especially strong nor did the centre of the storm pass over any islands, but it caused flooding and gale force winds over Tahiti from the storm's outer rain bands.
Niko was unusual because tropical cyclones occur less frequently over the southeast Pacific compared with the southwest Pacific and usually only develop in El Niño years when sea surface temperatures in the region are warmer than normal. Sea surface temperatures across the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, including the waters surrounding Tahiti, have been warmer than normal for several months and likely contributed to the cyclone's development. See the Bureau of Meteorology's ENSO Wrap up for official El Niño information.
It is also likely that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) contributed to the favourable conditions for tropical cyclone Niko's development. Over the past week the MJO has been present, but weak, over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This placed the MJO in a location favourable for enhanced convection over the southeast Pacific.
The MJO is forecast to remain subdued for the coming week and is not expected to be a major influence on tropical weather. See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO. The risk of tropical cyclone development across the South Pacific remains high while warmer than normal waters are present in the region.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #128 on: January 27, 2015, 04:15:03 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the week ending Jan 25 2015, showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  This data indicates the possibility of a future (possibly by April, or not) Modoki.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #129 on: January 27, 2015, 06:45:09 PM »
Longpaddocks software glitch has been fixed now. The 30 day average moving SOI has continued down to -9,46 while the 90-day SOI moving average is down to -8,06. Eyeballing latest GFS 12z run (as of 27 Jan) reveals hints of a continuation of low daily SOI values for another week which should be in the range of -5 to -20... The 30 - day moving average of SOI should see a more distinct drop as most values duringthe first 2 weeks of 2015 were rather "high"..

Latest MJO forecast hints the possibility of a rather active phase of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) the next 2 weeks. This should be good news for a warming of the WPAC. See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #130 on: January 28, 2015, 01:15:50 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.7:

20141228,20150126,-8.7
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #131 on: January 29, 2015, 12:23:14 AM »
The following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -8.3:

20141229,20150127,-8.3
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #132 on: January 30, 2015, 12:48:29 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -8.5:

20141230,20150128,-8.5

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: January 30, 2015, 03:20:10 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #133 on: January 30, 2015, 03:49:43 AM »
The first attachment shows the TAO plots of subsurface temperature means and anomalies for data ending January 28. Per this data, the new downwelling Kelvin wave has continued to slowly evolve with a small pocket of positive anomalies now up to +3.0 deg C.

The second attachment shows the GFS forecast of zonal wind anomalies, updated January 29th (courtesy Carl Schreck). A New WWB is projected to develop between ~140E and ~170E around January 31st, and persist through the first week of February. This would support further strengthening of the developing downwelling Kelvin wave under the Dateline and Central equatorial Pacific.

The third attachment shows the CDAS global SSTA 7-day change, updated January 29th at 12z (courtesy Levi Cowan/tropicaltidbits.com). NOTE: This chart does not depict actual SSTA, just the change in SSTA. Per CDAS data, SSTA in the eastern equatorial Pacific have decreased during the past week, likely associated with the upwelling Kelvin wave in that region. SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have generally continued to increase during the past week, likely associated with continued westerly wind anomalies in that region (CDAS Nino 3.4 index is up to just about +0.8 as of Jan 29). However, easterly wind anomalies/enhanced trades are projected to re-develop across the central equatorial Pacific during the next several days, and thus it's very likely that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region will soon begin to decrease (if the forecast develops as advertised). It's interesting to note that most of the BOM's El Nino indicators have at least temporarily returned to borderline El Nino or weak El Nino levels. Such as, cloudiness near the Dateline, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region, SOI values, and trade winds (I suspect that the active MJO has played a large role in this). The only BOM indicators not inline with weak El Nino conditions are subsurface temps and their ENSO model outlooks.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #134 on: January 31, 2015, 12:37:41 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.6:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #135 on: January 31, 2015, 10:26:12 PM »
The linked Mother Jones article entitled: "Something Really, Really Terrible Is About to Happen to Our Coral", warns (see extract and associated attached images) that whether 2015 has an El Nino or not, by about May of 2015 there will likely be a major coral bleaching event comparable to the bleaching event in 1998 triggered by the 1997-98 major El Nino event.  Obviously, if a major El Nino event occurs by the boreal Fall of 2015 we could experience the worst coral bleaching event on record:

http://www.motherjones.com/tom-philpott/2015/01/noaa-globes-coral-reefs-face-massive-bleaching-event-2015

Extract: "He called the warning currently happening in the Indian Ocean (the one on the left in the above charts) "amazingly similar" to the situation in '98, which foretells a warming pattern that could subject coral to a '98-scale bleaching crisis. "If you look at where we were in 1998 and look at where we are now, you see that the ocean is primed to respond with a sustained high temperature during the warm season in a way that previously took a big El Niño, and now doesn't," he said."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #136 on: February 01, 2015, 02:38:24 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -8.2
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #137 on: February 02, 2015, 12:24:28 AM »
The following data including that issued by the BoM today, indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -8.2:

20141231,20150129,-7.6
20150101,20150130,-8.2
20150102,20150131,-8.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #138 on: February 02, 2015, 04:24:56 PM »
As DO may still be recovering from a Super Bowl party, I provide the following NOAA including data for the week centered on Jan 28 2015, indicating that the Nino 3.4 index has dropped back down to +0.5:

                     Nino1+2        Nino3        Nino34       Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA     SST SSTA
  07JAN2015    23.7-0.2    25.9 0.4      27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0
 28JAN2015    24.8-0.3      26.2 0.3     27.2 0.5      29.1 0.9
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #139 on: February 02, 2015, 07:23:39 PM »
As DO may still be recovering from a Super Bowl party, I provide the following NOAA including data for the week centered on Jan 28 2015, indicating that the Nino 3.4 index has dropped back down to +0.5:

                     Nino1+2        Nino3        Nino34       Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA     SST SSTA
  07JAN2015    23.7-0.2    25.9 0.4      27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0
 28JAN2015    24.8-0.3      26.2 0.3     27.2 0.5      29.1 0.9

Haha, in a way. That was a hard loss to process after a play call that's going to leave me nonplussed for a long time. ??? Thanks for updating the SSTs. I want to add that this has a typical Modoki set-up: a strong east-west gradient, but with still warmer than average central Pacific SSTs, something which has been said here before but can be repeated.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #140 on: February 03, 2015, 02:03:42 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -8.3 (and thus is borderline El Nino but the daily SOI's now are neutral):

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #141 on: February 03, 2015, 02:58:23 AM »
The BOM's long range ENSO model (POAMA) is now predicting that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region will reach moderate El Nino levels by late Summer/early Fall of 2015. Also, like NOAA's CFSv2 ENSO model, it suggests that the renewed warming trend may not be as temporary as I thought (but we shall see). Still, there's a small but moderate strength cool upwelling Kelvin wave surfacing in the eastern Pacific. The ENSO update issued by the BOM tomorrow will be interesting, as all of their ENSO indicators have essentially returned to borderline/weak El Nino levels. All except subsurface temps, but the new downwelling Kelvin wave will be approaching the eastern Pacific within 3-4 weeks or so. I wonder if the BOM will flip their ENSO tracker back to “watch”, or whether they will wait it out and monitor conditions for few more weeks (in case this return to borderline El Nino conditions is in fact temporary until later in the year). This ENSO cycle has been tricky (even for the experts). 

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #142 on: February 03, 2015, 03:57:22 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2 3 & 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending Feb 1 2015.  While these indices could accommodate a possible Modoki, in general terms they indicates conditions that are less supportive of an El Nino developing before the end of the Spring barrier.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #143 on: February 03, 2015, 04:02:00 PM »
The two attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 1 2015, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  While these plots indicate a possible Modoki this Spring, if the Nino 3.4 index (currently at +0.39) remains below +0.5 C for the next couple of months then the recent El Nino like conditions will not be recognized as an official Modoki event.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #144 on: February 04, 2015, 01:25:28 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -7.8 (and thus indicates neutral conditions):

20150104,20150202,-7.8

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: February 04, 2015, 03:35:06 AM by AbruptSLR »
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― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #145 on: February 04, 2015, 09:05:23 PM »
The attached image shows NOAA CPC ONI values for 1979-2014 (see link to view ONI values dating back to 1950). As expected, the ONI value for NDJ 2014, came in at +0.7 deg C. It should be noted that ONI values can change up 2 months after the initial real time value is posted. Therefore, the most recent values should be considered an estimate. At this time, I don’t think 2014-15 will reach official El Nino status (Per NOAA's definition), but I also don’t think its completely out of the question.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #146 on: February 04, 2015, 09:26:51 PM »
At this time, I don’t think 2014-15 will reach official El Nino status (Per NOAA's definition), but I also don’t think its completely out of the question.

Agreed. And this guy is what's going probably to snuff that fuse. Subsurface temperatures with anomalies of up to (down to?) -5 C are beginning to surface in the eastern Pacific. I haven't seen cool anomalies this strong in the region in a while. However, warm water in the west is building, and some of it is surfacing as well, but it seems that making it to March is struggling with vanishing odds.

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #147 on: February 05, 2015, 12:22:40 AM »
The NCDC PDO index value for January 2015 came in at +1.74. The second highest value since 1997.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/


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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #148 on: February 05, 2015, 12:32:02 AM »
Thanks, bigB. But would you mind providing a bit of context? What does that kind of value tend to presage? Is there a particular number above (or below) which something is considered to be more likely to happen? Thanks ahead of time for any light you can throw, and apologies if you have already explained this and I missed or forgot it.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #149 on: February 05, 2015, 12:37:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today the 30-day moving average SOI has remained unchanged at -7.8 (and thus remains neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson