Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2015 El Niño?  (Read 567393 times)

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 553
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 129
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1450 on: December 17, 2015, 09:57:47 PM »
Whatever comes out of this, there's not much evidence for a La Nina, yet. Maybe a weak one later on. Or maybe nothing...

The mid-December 2015 plume of model predictions for the Nino 3.4 index suggests there is about a 50% chance of La Nina conditions for Autumn 2016:







http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-quicklook

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1451 on: December 18, 2015, 04:09:04 AM »
That's correct, Steven.
46% La Nina, 40% Neutral and 14% El Nino in ASO.
I mainly look at ECMWF and the uncorrected versions from CFSv2, neither of those strech that far as ASO in the IRI ENSO forecast.
In total there are eight models not accounted for in the ASO numbers.

But, they also use the Nino34 region. The Nino4 region should be a better choice to determine, or rather speculate around, a La Nina. Which is why I used that area above.

James Lovejoy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 158
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1452 on: December 18, 2015, 04:53:51 AM »
The SOI has moved further into el nino territory at -12.1.  The odds still are for the el nino to have peaked, but there's a chance that there is still life in it.


James Lovejoy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 158
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1453 on: December 20, 2015, 12:56:18 AM »
SOI has moved slightly up to -12.0

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1454 on: December 20, 2015, 04:44:44 AM »
Records tumble as El Niño peaks.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2015/records-tumble-el-nino-peaks
Quote
The resulting peak in SSTs has broken monthly mean records in the NINO3.4 region:
the highest ever recorded absolute SST value (29.6 °C, breaking the record of 29.4 °C set in January 1983, and the November record of 29.3 °C set in 1997)
and the highest ever anomaly (3.0 °C, compared to 2.8 °C in January 1983)

The monthly mean December SST is also likely to be a record high, ahead of both 1982 and 1997.
And maybe more important.
Quote
Records have also been broken in the western-central Pacific: the monthly mean NINO4 SST exceeded 30 °C for the first time, reaching 30.3 °C and beating the previous record of 29.9 °C set in June this year.

In terms of anomalies, the record prior to 2015 in the NINO4 area was 1.3 °C, set in 2009. The modest size of this previous record underlines how stable ocean temperatures are in this part of the Pacific. The NINO4 anomaly this November was 1.7 °C, a significant increase on the previous record.

SST analyses become less precise going back in time, but the size of the anomalies in NINO4 and NINO3.4 means we are fairly confident that these are record values for the whole of the observational period back to 1860.

Average and observed sea-surface temperatures in NINO3.4. The chart shows the average evolution of sea-surface temperatures in the NINO3.4 region based on the years 1981 to 2010 (red line) and the observed evolution since January 2015 according to two different analyses (dark and light blue lines). The difference between the red and blue lines is the sea-surface temperature anomaly.
Quote
The latest forecasts suggest that SST anomalies in the central Pacific have now reached their peak and will start to decline. Although there is some uncertainty related to the winds, the forecasts do suggest that the amplitude of El Niño is likely to decline fairly rapidly in the early part of 2016, with NINO3.4 cooling to 1 °C by April.
Also interesting is that JMA will join EUROSIP next year.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1455 on: December 21, 2015, 03:41:37 AM »
Per the first attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving up to-11.0:

Edit: Per the second attached NOAA GFS MJO forecast from Dec 20 2015 to Jan 3 2016, the relatively high MJO in the Marine Continent helps to explain why the SOI is current increasing (and to my mind supports the idea that the El Nino/MJO combination could start sending Pineapple Express rain storms to California starting around (or just after) Christmas).
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 03:48:09 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

A-Team

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2391
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 282
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1456 on: December 21, 2015, 12:26:39 PM »
Quote
could start sending Pineapple Express rain storms to California starting around (or just after) Christmas).
I'm keeping an open mind about Jan and Feb but the fact is, there has not been any weather whatsoever the last six weeks in the southern tier of the US (the area always mentioned as the #1 impacted region of the US in terms of heavier el nino rains) and nothing is on the horizon to year-end, the excuse now being a stationary jet stream meander, finger going down west of Rockies this year instead of east. In western Oregon, I can hardly remember a year without multiple pineapple expresses, attribution or even contribution will be a tough call statistically.

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 551
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1457 on: December 21, 2015, 03:58:47 PM »
Per NOAA, over the last week, the Niño 3.4 region rebounded to a 2.9 C anomaly, and the Niño 1+2 regions rebounded to 2.4 C.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7

Attached is the SST anomaly chart by OSPO for December 21st.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1458 on: December 21, 2015, 05:40:37 PM »
The first attached image shows NOAA's Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution through about Dec 20, 2015, showing that the coming upwelling phase of the EKW appears to be relatively weak.

The second attached image shows NOAA's four week SSTA extent plots showing relatively little change in the SSTA's over this period; which might indicate that much of the anomalously warm temperatures are associated with climate change instead of a particularly strong ENSO oscillation.

The third attached NOAA image shows the evolution of the Eq Pacific SSTA history, which also shows that the current downwelling trough appears to be relatively weak indicating that warm Eastern Eq Pacific SSTA's may last longer than many models are currently projecting.

The fourth attached image of the U at Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 21 to 28, 2015, shows significant WWB activity near the Equatorial International Dateline after Christmas, which could both support another phase of downwelling in the EKW and might also trigger a pineapple express to the US West Coast.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1459 on: December 21, 2015, 05:43:46 PM »
The four attached plots were all issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively, all of which are consistent with the idea that we are entering a period of relatively weak upwelling phase of the current EKW.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1460 on: December 21, 2015, 05:51:59 PM »
The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 20 2015, with the first image of the Nino 3.4 index and the second for the IOD index; both of which support the idea that we are currently in somewhat neutral driving conditions that may resulting in the SSTA's not change very rapidly.

The third & fourth plots are from NOAA with the third image showing the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Dec 14 2015 showing that the tough of deep cool water near the Eq International Dateline is weakening (compared to a week earlier), which supports the idea that our current upwelling phase of the EKW may be relatively weak; while the fourth image of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom circa Dec 20 2015 shows that the recent declines in Eastern Eq Pac heat content are flattening-out.  Again this indicates to me that the current SSTA's may not drop as rapidly as many forecasts project.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1461 on: December 22, 2015, 02:44:18 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at -11.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1462 on: December 22, 2015, 05:55:17 AM »
Just trying to display the long term trends, and as a follow up to why one would rather look at the Nino4 region to determine or speculate around future La Ninas, with graphics from OOPC.
http://ioc-goos-oopc.org/state_of_the_ocean/

Nino1+2:

Nino3:

Nino3+4:

Nino4:

PDO:

SOI:
« Last Edit: December 22, 2015, 06:02:34 AM by Sleepy »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1463 on: December 23, 2015, 12:32:41 AM »
The attached University at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 22 to 29, 2015, shows that the forecasted WWB near the Equatorial International Dateline, remains strong, which could help support another phase of downwelling EKW; which could sustain Super El Nino conditions for a longer period than most/all current forecasts:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1464 on: December 23, 2015, 03:21:33 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -11.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

James Lovejoy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 158
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1465 on: December 26, 2015, 04:46:40 AM »
Per the BoM the 30 day  moving average SOI has moved up to-10.0

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1466 on: December 26, 2015, 05:28:20 PM »
The first image from NOAA shows the GFS MJO ensemble forecast from Dec 26 2015 to January 9 2016, showing a projected strong MJO in the Western Tropical Pacific; which should drive the SOI to higher (possibly positive, see the pattern of the 30-day SOI Long Paddock data at the following link) values in the coming two weeks.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

On the other hand the very strong MJO in the Western Tropical Pacific may be related to the forecasted strong WWB near the Equatorial International Dateline shown in the second attached image of the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast Dec 26 2015 to Jan 2 2016.

The third image of NOAA's Dec 19 2015 Subsurface Temp Anom indicates that the timing of the forecast strong WWB could minimize the intensity of the upwelling phase of the current EKW and might possibly support another phase of downwelling that might sustain relatively high Nino 3.4 values for a longer period than recently forecast.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1467 on: December 27, 2015, 02:22:26 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has jumped up to -8.4:

20151126,20151225,-8.4

Edit: Attached is the plot
« Last Edit: December 27, 2015, 02:59:19 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1468 on: December 27, 2015, 06:24:03 PM »
The first image show the Earth 850-hPa Wind and MSLP Map for Dec 27, showing how a high pressure system off the coast of California is blocking the pineapple express from reaching the West Coast (note that it also shows a strong WWB near the Eq Pac International Dateline).

The second NOAA image shows a representation of how a Madden-Julian Oscillation event near the Eq Pac International Dateline can induce either a pineapple express or an atmospheric river directed towards California.

The third NOAA image shows the GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from Dec 27  2015 to Jan 10 2016; indicating that it is conceivable that a very strong MJO (which also means that the SOI should continue increasing rapidly)  event might occur near the Eq Pac International Dateline towards the beginning of the second week in January 2016 (which might trigger either a pineapple express, or an atmospheric river, event towards the West Coast by mid-January).

The fourth image is of the U at Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 27 2015 to Jan 3 2016, forecast strong WWB activity near the Eq Pac International Dateline, with the 2016 activity possibly associated with a strong MJO event.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1469 on: December 28, 2015, 01:24:37 AM »
The linked California Weather Blog by Weather West, concurs with my prognosis that a pineapple express could hit California during the first few weeks of January 2016:

http://www.weatherwest.com/

Extract: "Early season rains soak Northern California; statewide storms likely in January
Filed in Uncategorized by Daniel Swain on December 23, 2015



Even more notable, though, is the current Sierra Nevada snowpack–which currently stands at 112% of the long-term average for this date in December. This is a remarkable milestone in a state where snow was virtually absent even at the highest elevations well into February last winter, and has been consistently far below average for 4 consecutive years.



Southern Californians have understandably been frustrated by the lack of rain so far this rainy season, but (as I’ve emphasized numerous times in previous posts) the main effects of a powerful El Niño event tend not to be felt until the core winter months of January-March. And, as I’ll discuss below, that long-awaited pattern shift (that would bring more storms directly to SoCal) may now be tantalizingly close.



But during the first week in January, the overall Pacific pattern will likely change rather quickly and dramatically. There is presently very strong inter-model ensemble support suggesting that the effects of El Niño and the MJO will combine to produce an impressive extension of the East Asian jet, delivering a parade of low-latitude storms to most or all of California. This kind of storm track would actually favor central and southern California as opposed to more northern parts of the state–in other words, the classic “El Niño pattern” that is in everyone’s minds.
It’s worth noting that seasonal forecasts have strongly hinted at precisely this evolution for many months now–showing a dry autumn, and equivocal December, and subsequently a very wet January-March period for all of California. Right now, model solutions for the first 2 weeks in January are converging on just such an outcome."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1470 on: December 28, 2015, 02:21:52 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved back into the neutral range and is now -7.9:

20151127,20151226,-7.9

Also, per the attached NOAA plot (downloaded today) of the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom, this value is as low as it has been since the Spring of 2015:

Edit: The second attached figure shows the Dec 27 2015 30-day moving average SOI plot
« Last Edit: December 28, 2015, 05:41:30 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1471 on: December 28, 2015, 05:21:45 PM »
The first image shows NOAA's NCPE MJO forecast from Dec 28 2015 to Jan 11 2016, which (if it comes to pass) would present a nearly perfect scenario for both sustained WWBs and for the "Pineapple Express" starting by the beginning of the second week in January 2016.

The second image shows the Earth 250-hPa Wind & Total Precipitable Water (TPW) Map for Dec 28 2015, indicating that a high pressure system is currently blocking the Asian Jetstream from reaching California, which results in the precipitable tropical water being directed towards Central America.

The third image shows the Earth 250-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 1 2016 (forecasted on Dec 28 2015), forecasting that the high pressure system has largely been displaced and that the Asian Jetstream has just barely reached the central coast of California and that the precipitable tropical water is just beginning to more northward, where by the beginning of the second week in January 2016, it might reach Central & Southern California.

The fourth image shows the U at Albany 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 28 2015 to Jan 4 2016, showing strong WWB activity over this entire period (which could help slow the projected drop in Nino 3.4 values).
« Last Edit: December 28, 2015, 05:32:30 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1472 on: December 28, 2015, 05:31:10 PM »
For full disclosure, the first image shows NOAA's GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from Dec 28 2015 to Jan 11 2016; which is slightly less aggressive than NOAA's NPCE MJO forecast for the same period shown in my immediate prior post.

However, the second BoM Eq. Pac International Dateline Cloud Cover (circa Dec 27 2015) shows extensive cloud cover near the Dateline, ready to be advected northward into the Asia Jetstream where this tropical precipitable water might follow the Pineapple Express to Central and Southern California by the second week in January 2016.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2015, 05:40:04 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1473 on: December 28, 2015, 06:25:02 PM »
As DO appears to still be on Holiday leave, I provide the following NOAA Nino index data from both 1997 and 2015, which indicates that for the week centered on Dec 23 2015 all of the indices dropped with the Nino 3.4 dropping to +2.7 (which is comparable to the 1997 value):


                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week             SST SSTA   SST SSTA  SST SSTA   SST SSTA

 05NOV1997     25.0 3.7     28.4 3.4     29.2 2.6     29.2 0.6
 12NOV1997     25.8 4.3     28.5 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.5 0.8
 19NOV1997     25.8 4.1     28.6 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.7 1.1
 26NOV1997     25.9 3.9     28.7 3.7     29.4 2.8     29.7 1.1
 03DEC1997     26.2 3.9     28.6 3.6     29.2 2.6     29.4 0.9
 10DEC1997     26.7 4.2     28.7 3.6     29.2 2.7     29.4 0.9
 17DEC1997     27.0 4.1     28.8 3.6     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.8
 24DEC1997     27.2 4.0     28.8 3.5     29.3 2.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC1997     27.7 4.1     28.9 3.5     29.2 2.7     29.2 0.8

 
 04NOV2015     23.4 2.1     27.8 2.8     29.5 2.8     30.3 1.7
 11NOV2015     23.5 2.0     27.9 3.0     29.7 3.0     30.3 1.7
 18NOV2015     23.8 2.1     28.0 3.0     29.7 3.1     30.4 1.8
 25NOV2015     24.4 2.4     28.0 3.0     29.6 3.0     30.3 1.8
 02DEC2015     24.7 2.4     27.9 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 09DEC2015     24.8 2.3     28.0 2.9     29.4 2.8     30.2 1.7
 16DEC2015     25.2 2.4     28.0 2.9     29.5 2.9     30.2 1.7
 23DEC2015     25.2 2.1     28.0 2.7     29.3 2.7     30.0 1.6

The first NOAA image shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Dec 23, 2015; which shows that the warm downwelling phase of the EKW is weakening, while the deep pool of cool water near the International Dateline is strengthening but that the upwell phase will still be upwelling relatively warm waters indicating a gradual decline in El Nino conditions.

The second NOAA image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom Evolution issued Dec 28 2015, showing that we are currently in the trough of the EKW phase cycle, which raises the prospect that another weaker downwelling phase of the EKW may follow our current condition.

The third NOAA image shows the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution issued Dec 28 2015, showing a reduction in SSTA values across the Equatorial Pacific.

The fourth NOAA image shows the Nino SSTA index history issued Dec 28 2015, showing that these values are currently slowly declining, but that the Nino 4 values are relatively high (as Sleepy pointed out previously), which again raises the prospect that another weaker downwelling phase of the EKW may follow the current upwelling trough.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1474 on: December 28, 2015, 06:27:39 PM »
The attached Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 27 2015, and they are all slight down from last week.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1475 on: December 28, 2015, 06:30:13 PM »
The two attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Dec 27 2015.  The first images shows that the Nino 3.4 index has dropped down to +2.3; while the second image shows that the IOD index has dropped slightly and remains solidly neutral.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

islandraider

  • New ice
  • Posts: 5
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1476 on: December 28, 2015, 11:41:35 PM »
Thank you AbruptSLR!

Great information, graphics & explanations!  Your efforts are very much appreciated!!!!!


AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1477 on: December 29, 2015, 02:52:56 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant (and neutral) at -7.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1478 on: December 29, 2015, 08:15:41 AM »
I made a small animation here,
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg67546.html#msg67546
from the 250hpa layer related to ASLRs posts above regarding the pineapple express.


Might as well add it here too.
Click to start.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1479 on: December 29, 2015, 04:50:43 PM »
To supplement Sleepy's animation:

The first image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TPW Map for Jan 2 2016 (issued Dec 29 2015), showing a stream of moist water from Hawaii to Washington State, which should move southward as the system moves eastward.

The second image shows NOAA's NCPE: National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Ensemble Global Forecast System, MJO forecast from Dec 29 2015 to Jan 12 2015, showing that conditions remain optimal for generating a Pineapple Express in Central & Southern California, sometime in the second week of January 2016.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1480 on: December 29, 2015, 09:50:51 PM »
The first three plots present the BoM's Nino 3.4 Model Summaries for Jan, March and May 2016, respectively.  Note that the NASA model is consistently the most bullish model (with projected El Nino conditions lasting beyond May of 2016); however, as these projections are based on Dec 13 2015 starting conditions, they do not include the influence of the high projected MJO values near the International Dateline, nor the currently high (highest in several years) levels of cloud cover near the Eq Pac International Dateline, indicated by the fourth attached image.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 15618
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 442
  • Likes Given: 212
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1481 on: December 30, 2015, 02:50:14 AM »
NASA:  A Still-Growing El Niño Set to Bear Down on US
Quote
In 2014, the current El Niño teased us -- wavering off and on," said Josh Willis, project scientist for the Jason missions at JPL. "But in early 2015, atmospheric conditions changed, and El Niño steadily expanded in the central and eastern Pacific.  Although the sea surface height signal in 1997 was more intense and peaked in November of that year, in 2015, the area of high sea levels is larger. This could mean we have not yet seen the peak of this El Niño."
...
The water story for much of the American West over most of the past decade has been dominated by punishing drought," said JPL climatologist Bill Patzert. "Reservoir levels have fallen to record or near-record lows, while groundwater tables have dropped dangerously in many areas. Now we’re preparing to see the flip side of nature’s water cycle -- the arrival of steady, heavy rains and snowfall."

In 1982-83 and 1997-98, large El Niños delivered about twice the average amount of rainfall to Southern California, along with mudslides, floods, high winds, lightning strikes and high surf. But Patzert cautioned that El Niño events are not drought busters. "Over the long haul, big El Niños are infrequent and supply only seven percent of California’s water," he said.
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/a-still-growing-el-nino-set-to-bear-down-on-us
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1482 on: December 30, 2015, 03:02:26 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -8.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1483 on: December 30, 2015, 06:25:32 AM »
As this year and El Nino fades off, I started a new thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html

Theta

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
  • Grips
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1484 on: December 30, 2015, 01:52:08 PM »
As this year and El Nino fades off, I started a new thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html

I think it's too early to say that the el nino is fading when there are forecasts for.it's persistence
Can't think of a signature

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1485 on: December 30, 2015, 05:11:06 PM »
As we still have a day and a half of 2015 left:

The first image shows NOAA's NPCE MJO forecast from Dec 30 2015 to Jan 13 2016; which is still very bullish for a gradual (instead of steep) decline in El Nino in the early part of 2016.

The second image shows the U at Albany's 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 30 2015 to Jan 6 2016; which shows strong WWB activity now, which should intensify near the Eq. Dateline over the coming week (which may lead to another downwelling phase of the EKW).

The third and fourth images show the projected Earth 250-hPa Wind and TPW and TCW (total cloud water), respectively, for January 3 2015, indicating a chance of a small amount of Pineapple Express water in Southern California by this date.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1486 on: December 30, 2015, 09:41:10 PM »
As this year and El Nino fades off, I started a new thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html

I think it's too early to say that the el nino is fading when there are forecasts for.it's persistence

To me, everything after a peak, is a fade. It will probably be persistently fading. Not as fast as the corrected forecasts from CFSv2 indicates, but more likely like the uncorrected forecasts. I posted them in the other thread.

There have been speculations around a higher peak to come, but that's not very likely.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1487 on: December 31, 2015, 02:36:44 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped back into the El Nino supporting range at -8.5 (I note that even the Long Paddock daily SOI values, and the daily UatA 850 & 200 hPa wind anoms, support this conclusions):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 431
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1488 on: December 31, 2015, 03:05:26 AM »
Robert Scribbler has posted this analysis NASA: Worst of El Nino Still to Come. With Climate Change in the Mix, 2015-2016 Event May Equal Most Devastating On Record
If he is right then we could be in for a very cranky 2016.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Theta

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 174
  • Grips
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1489 on: December 31, 2015, 03:11:41 AM »
Robert Scribbler has posted this analysis NASA: Worst of El Nino Still to Come. With Climate Change in the Mix, 2015-2016 Event May Equal Most Devastating On Record
If he is right then we could be in for a very cranky 2016.

The weather chaos is going to be crazy and the effect on the sea ice will probably be significant, especially if the el nino lasts into late summer.
Can't think of a signature

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1490 on: December 31, 2015, 06:55:26 AM »
Isn't that headline by NASA is a bit to much? Initally posted by Sigmetnow above and now referred to by RS.

Where's the support for another and higher peak?
The statement from Josh Willis about the sea levels? The 86-87 event which had a short drop and then a second higher peak? That would be a frightening thought, but why would that happen now? The present WWB activity?

This is already a massive event, pimped by AGW.
Depending on how you look at things, one can claim it started in 2014. JMA declared an El Nino in late 2014, the other two use higher tresholds.  Looking at ocean heat content, one can claim it started in 2012.

People will die in the aftermath of this event.

Happy New Year.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1491 on: December 31, 2015, 05:13:32 PM »
As Sleepy points out: "People will die in the aftermath of this event", most notably by starvation:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/dec/30/hunger-threatens-millions-el-nino-drought-floods-humanitarian-disaster

Extract: "Aid agencies have warned that tens of millions of people in Africa, the Caribbean and Asia face severe hunger in the next six months following failed harvests, stunted crops and soaring prices of staple foods.
Droughts and floods have occurred across the world as a result of the strongest recorded El Niño weather event. The natural climate phenomenon is peaking now and leading to a humanitarian disaster, say agencies including Oxfam, ActionAid, Care International, Plan and Catholic Relief Services.
“The effects of the strongest El Niño in several decades are set to put the world’s humanitarian system under an unprecedented level of strain in 2016 as it already struggles to cope with the fallout from conflicts in Syria, South Sudan, Yemen and elsewhere,” said Oxfam in a briefing paper.
According to the UN refugee agency, the number of people forced to flee their homes because of conflict has reached nearly 60 million, a level unknown since the second world war.
But in addition, nearly 39 million people will need food aid because of shortages. “Millions of people in places like Ethiopia, Haiti and Papua New Guinea are already feeling the effects of drought and crop failure. It’s already too late for some regions to avoid a major emergency,” said Jane Cocking, Oxfam GB’s humanitarian director."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1492 on: December 31, 2015, 05:31:32 PM »
The linked article cites that even though the ENSO cycle is one of the most predictable weather events on the planet, it is still chaotic.  People do not like uncertainty, and they particularly do not like paying for results that are uncertain; which makes it particularly difficult to fight climate change because by the time that we know what is happening we will have too much momentum to avoid significant consequences:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/30/el-nino-climate-change-scientists-pacific-ocean-weather

Extract: "El Niño is one of the most predictable climate events on the planet, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but it also has a way of keeping climate scientists guessing.
In March the oceanographers predicted the current event could be the weakest on record, but in August the same agency warned it could be the strongest.
Right now it still looks strong, says Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. Using satellite data, meteorologists keep a steady watch on El Niño because it can play out demurely, or it can bring catastrophe. It has been linked to drought and harvest failures on the African continent, devastating fires in the normally moist rainforests of the Indonesian archipelago, both drought and flood in Australia, damaging floods in the Americas, and unusually mild winters in Europe.


Although researchers are fairly sure that climate change as a consequence of the combustion of fossil fuels, and the release of greenhouse gases, could make El Niño more frequent, or more devastating, or both, it remains a natural, cyclic event. Climate historians have linked it, with sometimes faltering levels of confidence, to historic events, among them the epidemic of Spanish influenza that claimed millions of lives in 1918 and even the Biblical plagues of Egypt linked to the story of Moses.
Sometimes oceanographers watch an El Niño develop, and then fade gently. And sometimes it develops powerfully, with consequences for the rest of the globe. Oxfam has already warned that this time millions could face famine as a consequence."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1493 on: December 31, 2015, 07:36:42 PM »
While I certainly believe that the current El Nino has peaked, that doesn't mean that there could be a shoulder (or lower secondary peak) in the Jan-Feb timeframe.

The first two images are NOAA Ensemble MJO forecast from Dec 31 2015 to Jan 14 2016, for the GFS and NCPE, respectively, both showing very strong MJO activity right near the International Dateline where its convective activity could kick the Walker Cell back into an El Nino supporting condition.

The third image shows the U at Albany 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from Dec 31 2015 to Jan 7 2016, indicating that the current WWB should strengthen by the second week in January.

The fourth image shows the Earth 850-hPa Wind & TWP forecast for Jan 4 2016, which not only confirms the WWB but also confirms that the current SPCZ will last until that time; which will also support El Nino conditions.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 551
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1494 on: December 31, 2015, 08:30:09 PM »
Attached is the final SST anomaly chart of 2015 by OSPO, for December 31st. We may notice a noteworthy shift here, which has been observed elsewhere, which is that the "blob" appears to be dormant off of the Pacific's northeastern shore.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 680
  • Likes Given: 228
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1495 on: January 01, 2016, 02:24:10 AM »
First, per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has move back up to -8.0:

20151201,20151230,-8.0

Second, per the attached image issued around today by the BoM, the Eq. Dateline cloud cover is remaining near a multi-year peak.

Also, as this is the last day of 2015, I will make subsequent posts about the current El Nino in Sleepy's new thread.

Edit: the second attached image is today's 30-day moving average SOI plot
« Last Edit: January 01, 2016, 02:32:06 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7173
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 713
  • Likes Given: 467
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #1496 on: January 06, 2016, 12:44:38 PM »
For those who haven't noticed (like me), new El Niño thread here.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin