The linked article cites that even though the ENSO cycle is one of the most predictable weather events on the planet, it is still chaotic. People do not like uncertainty, and they particularly do not like paying for results that are uncertain; which makes it particularly difficult to fight climate change because by the time that we know what is happening we will have too much momentum to avoid significant consequences:
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/30/el-nino-climate-change-scientists-pacific-ocean-weatherExtract: "El Niño is one of the most predictable climate events on the planet, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but it also has a way of keeping climate scientists guessing.
In March the oceanographers predicted the current event could be the weakest on record, but in August the same agency warned it could be the strongest.
Right now it still looks strong, says Nasa’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California. Using satellite data, meteorologists keep a steady watch on El Niño because it can play out demurely, or it can bring catastrophe. It has been linked to drought and harvest failures on the African continent, devastating fires in the normally moist rainforests of the Indonesian archipelago, both drought and flood in Australia, damaging floods in the Americas, and unusually mild winters in Europe.
…
Although researchers are fairly sure that climate change as a consequence of the combustion of fossil fuels, and the release of greenhouse gases, could make El Niño more frequent, or more devastating, or both, it remains a natural, cyclic event. Climate historians have linked it, with sometimes faltering levels of confidence, to historic events, among them the epidemic of Spanish influenza that claimed millions of lives in 1918 and even the Biblical plagues of Egypt linked to the story of Moses.
Sometimes oceanographers watch an El Niño develop, and then fade gently. And sometimes it develops powerfully, with consequences for the rest of the globe. Oxfam has already warned that this time millions could face famine as a consequence."