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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #50 on: January 06, 2015, 02:14:31 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has continued moving down and is now -6.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #51 on: January 06, 2015, 07:45:04 AM »
The attached image from Cyclocane.com shows twin areas of invest in the west and south Pacific. Further development of these tropical disturbances would likely enhance an already developing WWB.

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N 160.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING THIS
SYSTEM (GREATER THAN 72 HOURS) AS IT PROCEEDS WEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
     
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1S 155.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW
GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD,
BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FORMATIVE,
ALBEIT BROKEN, CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. NUMERIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48
TO 72 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #52 on: January 06, 2015, 04:19:33 PM »
The first two plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending January 4 2014, with the first plot showing that the Nino 3.4 is down to +0.5 and the second plot shows the IOD is down from last week.

The third image shows that the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom. has stabilized.

These images are consistent with the idea that the strength of El Nino-like conditions will bottom out soon and then may strengthen later in the Boreal Spring.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #53 on: January 06, 2015, 04:22:37 PM »
The attached plots were all issued by the BoM today for the week ending January 4 2015 for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These plots indicate that El Nino-like conditions are about to bottom-out, and may start strengthening in the next few months.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #54 on: January 06, 2015, 05:38:01 PM »
From the 95th AMS Annual Meeting, in Phoenix:
J4.3: Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves on tropical cyclone cyclogenesis over the eastern north Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins

Wednesday, 7 January 2015: 11:00 AM
224B (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings)
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and M. Ventrice
Abstract: "During the past few years, the real-time monitoring of convectively coupled atmospheric Kelvin Waves (CCKWs) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has become an important new tool for operational forecasters making tropical cyclone genesis forecasts. However, many questions remain open regarding the use of these atmospheric waves as a means for genesis prediction. While it is useful information to know the state of the MJO, or if a CCKW is nearing a system, quantifying the impact of these waves has been challenging. For example, a key question is whether the CCKWs in certain phases of the MJO are more effective at initiating tropical cyclones. A more quantifiable impact would be useful to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which now makes probability forecasts of genesis for the next 5 days. The use of these atmospheric waves in a daily operational setting at NHC will be discussed and key case studies of recent storms that may have been influenced by these waves will be presented. In addition, CCKWs will be compared in various states of the MJO to help derive a more probability-based impact of these CCKWs based on the MJO phase and/or strength."

And while talking about Ventrice, MJOs & CCKWs: 

The first attached image gives the MJO forecast issued today by NOAA indicating that the MJO is strengthening & moving towards the International Dateline by Jan 20 2015.

The second attached image shows Ventrice's CCKW forecast, showing activity that could help the possibly cyclones that bigB has cited to produce WWB as indicated by the third image of the surface wind forecast by Albany U. today.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #55 on: January 07, 2015, 11:27:29 PM »
The attached plot was issued by the BoM today indicating that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.7 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #56 on: January 08, 2015, 01:25:38 PM »
The attached plot by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.4:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #57 on: January 08, 2015, 04:59:24 PM »
Giant deep-sea wave in Tasman Sea could help improve climate predictions
Scientists to study impact on the global climate and marine ecosystem of sub-surface wave
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/08/deep-sea-wave-tasman-sea-could-help-improve-climate-predictions
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #58 on: January 08, 2015, 06:41:21 PM »
Something that will be very interesting to watch is what will happen to the warm pool in the far Western Pacific (~130E) hovering at 150-300 m depth. This pool with water temps 1-2,5 above normal has since early November strengthened but only marginally moved eastward. It would certainly take a strong WWB to get this package of water to move eastward.

Another area that has seen warm pool of equal interest is the one at 150E-170E where the water is 1-2C above normal. This pool is now under direct influence of the current WWB and should gather strength if the WWB is to hold for some time.

See the figures at page 12 at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

It's worth to mention that this warm pools are not being seen at the latest ENSO report from BOM.

In any case the first 6 months will be interesting to watch! :D

Btw, hope everyone had a good X-mas!

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #59 on: January 09, 2015, 01:09:18 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average has drifted down to -6.5:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #60 on: January 09, 2015, 08:07:50 PM »
Both GFSs and ECMWFs latest runs favors the formation of a TC in the far Western Pacific by next week. This would clearly help the current WWB to strengthens.. :) How strong is this current WWB in a broader perspective? Just wait and see...

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #61 on: January 10, 2015, 01:37:23 AM »
The following data issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -6.2 (and thus is still neutral):

20141210,20150108,-6.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #62 on: January 10, 2015, 01:41:34 PM »
Latest CFS NOAA run indicates the possibility of a continued WWB for another 4 weeks. In fact, the WWB may strengthens later in the forecast period (see attached figures). By next week most models favors the development of a TC at low latitudes east of Philippinia. This would likely initiate an almost as big Kelvin wave which was seen by spring last year. If so, we will have almost the same situation as by the same time last year. This year, the odds are however better for a final flip of the Walker cell into a full blown El Niño. We've now had SOI-index below -5 for about six months now. The question remains if it would survive the summer. Clearly, something is going to happen and it will be extremely interesting to see if a new big Kelvin wave will be initiated in the far Western Pacific. If so, I won't be surprised if we are going to see a "Goliath" El Niño come true with global temperatures making 2015 an even warmer year than 2014!!





//LMV

Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #63 on: January 10, 2015, 08:28:13 PM »
I've been sat asround waiting for news of another late jan/early feb big KW forming! It seems to me that this is what we haver been seeing the past few years with folk fretting about a Nino over winter followed by a big KW pushing out only for resurgent Traded to squish things and foil atmospheric cooperation. Year on year the trades have been lessening in their intensity as they squish prospects of a Nino ( in June/July) so this year I figure they will fail to foil and atmosphere will come on board?

Then we need look at the 'fuel' at any Nino's disposal. The Pacific warm pool appears to be at both record heights and heat content. Can all this be released in one event? If so then we're looking at a large event surely?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #64 on: January 10, 2015, 10:50:49 PM »
Gray-Wolf & LMV,

The attached NOAA Nino 3.4 projection certainly supports your suggestions that 2015 may well produce a large (or possibly Goliath) El Nino event in 2015.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #65 on: January 11, 2015, 03:27:39 AM »
Per the attached image issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -5.8
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #66 on: January 11, 2015, 01:06:29 PM »
Hi ASLR !

I'd take the graph with a large pinch of salt? I've been watching the site for over a year and it really wants a Big one!!! Last year ( this time) it was showing the same with plenty of members going for a whopping 3C anom. that said we are also constantly being told of the scale of the 'warm pool' over in the west ( and the impacts of it on sea levels around the island nations) so the 'fuel' is there, and a plenty, , to feed, and replenish, any Nino?

All we need is a change in the Trades but any such change will signal wider impacts than just in the nino region? To me it would signal that the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation  is on the move back to its 'surface ocean heating' phase and then we have the potential of 18 years accrued ocean warming to begin to make a reappearance over world oceans ( which we might have been seeing the past 12 months with SST's driving record warm global months?). This would be coupled with a switch to PDO+ve ( we've been seeing a run of positives over the past 12 months ) meaning that , Nino aside, global temps will be seeing forcings from both AGW warming and augmenting Naturals on top ( instead of the Naturals drawing down the AGW side of things?).

Drop on top of that the Summer albedo flip across the Arctic and you have all the ingredients of a warming spurt across the planet.
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #67 on: January 11, 2015, 01:37:51 PM »
Gray-Wolf,

I couldn't agree more that with the chaotic nature of the ENSO phenomenon that over relying on the NOAA forecast on any given day/week/month is just asking to be surprised.  But that said, not only is the IPO/PDO becoming increasingly positive, but several other atmospheric (eg the negative SOI, and also the global warming trend) and oceanic (eg the warming AMO) appear to make an El Nino event more likely this year than last year.  It should be an interesting year to watch unfold.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #68 on: January 12, 2015, 03:49:39 PM »
Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies dropped to 0.4 C over the last week. This point a year ago, this same region was -0.5 C with borderline La Niña-like conditions. From that perspective, this year has a slightly easier launching pad from which to grow into an El Niño.
 
          Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7

wili

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #69 on: January 12, 2015, 05:35:04 PM »
ASLR, that 3.4 El Nino graph seems to have been corrected now, with no models showing any values above +2 any time next year (through August). (Or am I missing something? That seems like a pretty wild set of errors!)


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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #70 on: January 12, 2015, 06:06:56 PM »
ASLR, that 3.4 El Nino graph seems to have been corrected now, with no models showing any values above +2 any time next year (through August). (Or am I missing something? That seems like a pretty wild set of errors!)

wili,

The plot that I posted was without any climatological adjustments/corrections.  The differences between what you posted and what I posted are not due to errors but NOAA's "corrections" are to account for empirical seasonal adjustment.  I prefer to post the uncorrected data as in a non-stationary situation the empirical seasonal adjustment are not likely to be as accurate as they once were (i.e. I believe that climate change is making El Nino events more likely so I like to see the unadjusted plot).

Best,
ASLR
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crandles

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #71 on: January 12, 2015, 07:47:39 PM »
One appears to be monthly and one seasonal (3 month average). Monthly is obviously going to have more variability.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #72 on: January 13, 2015, 01:32:09 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to  -5.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #73 on: January 13, 2015, 02:39:26 AM »
The JISAO PDO index value for December 2014, came in at +2.51. The strongest positive value since 1997. Interestingly, it's also the strongest positive value on record for the month of December (per JIASO that is)!

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #74 on: January 13, 2015, 05:22:53 AM »
The fat lady hasn't sung yet.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #75 on: January 13, 2015, 06:30:32 AM »
Niño 3.4 region SST anomalies dropped to 0.4 C over the last week. This point a year ago, this same region was -0.5 C with borderline La Niña-like conditions. From that perspective, this year has a slightly easier launching pad from which to grow into an El Niño.
 
          Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 03DEC2014     22.3 0.0     25.8 0.7     27.4 0.8     29.4 0.9
 10DEC2014     22.8 0.2     26.0 0.9     27.5 0.9     29.4 0.9
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7

My thoughts exactly!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #76 on: January 13, 2015, 04:14:55 PM »
The first two plots of the Nino 3.4 and the IOD indices, respectively, were issued today by the BoM for the week ending January 11 2015; while the third image shows NOAA's Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. issued Jan. 13 2015.  Taken together then indicate that while still weakening, conditions favoring an El Nino event in 2015 may develop by Spring.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #77 on: January 13, 2015, 04:18:03 PM »
The attached plots of the Nino 1, 2, 3 and 4 indices, respectively, were all issued by the BoM today for the week ending Jan 11 2015, and they all indicate the continued weakening of conditions favorable for an El Nino that might (or might not) have started in 2014:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Csnavywx

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #78 on: January 14, 2015, 12:19:21 AM »
The December PDO number is in: +2.51.

That's the highest DJF (N hem winter) reading in the entire series and the highest reading in general since 1997.

As far as ENSO forecasts go, the CFS is kind of on its own in forecasting a Nino for summer right now. The vast majority of the models are pointing towards warm neutral.


AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #79 on: January 14, 2015, 02:59:07 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -4.3:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

LRC1962

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #80 on: January 14, 2015, 11:03:41 PM »
Just to make sure I got things right. The 'El Nino' has not started because of atmospheric conditions as opposed to SST.
The second part as shown partly by this:
is that because of the north pole warming faster then the equator the atmosphere at the pole is expanding faster then then equator, the speed of the winds which this affects is therefore slowing down. On the other hand because of possibly the ozone hole at the south pole the temps have not climbed and therefore the slope between the equator and the pole are sharper therefore the winds are stronger.
The slopes also influence the exact positioning of the cells.
The question that comes to mind then, if all the above is true could all that not be having a detrimental effect on the atmosphere's capability of setting of the atmospheric conditions necessary to shift between La Nina and El Nino?  Mind you once it does it, could it become much stronger and/or longer in duration?
Although no single weather event can be attributed to  AGW, have we not seen enough rare events in the last decade to change our ways of concluding that because we have A, B, and C, D will happen this way?
My thinking is starting to change that because the last about 10,000 yrs has been more or less stable as far as CO2 and temps are concerned, up until the last 200 yrs, our historical knowledge is becoming more and more irrelevant as far as climate and weather is concerned. As many scientist had said, tipping points are only really those spots where life is normal to life has been radically changed.Example is flooding, the difference can be as little as a couple of inches.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #81 on: January 15, 2015, 01:21:58 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #82 on: January 15, 2015, 05:09:24 AM »
The first attached image (courtesy of Surfline.com) shows the GFS forecast of surface level wind speeds off southern Baja, CA for January 17th. The GFS model has been suggesting possible TC development in the eastern Pacific (east of 140W) for the last several days now. If this were to occur, it would be an extremely rare event. In fact, its never happened before in recorded history. According to all the historical data that I could find, any TC development in the Pacific during the month of January has been confined to either the Western or Central Pacific/near Hawaii.

The second attached image (also courtesy of Surfline.com) shows current SST's off southern Baja. As of right now, SST's in this region (south of the tip of Baja) are about 2 deg C above normal, and just barely warm enough to support TC development (anything below 78.8 deg F/26 deg C is too cool). If a TC were to develop it would likely be very short lived (and weak) as it's projected to quickly track towards the north over cooler SST's. It's something to monitor as it would be quite interesting (and weird). NOTE: The GFS model has been very bullish lately in regards to TC development (over-hyping TC development).

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #83 on: January 15, 2015, 07:11:36 PM »
BigB: very interesting!!! :D As far as I have found there haven't been any formation of a TC in January in the "real" Eastern Pacific. However, there have been a few developments in the Central Pacific during January.

Most recent TAO/NOAA picture shows that it seems like another buoy have been repaired. This one is the one in the far western Pacific. As a result the westerlies there have got new dimension..

« Last Edit: January 15, 2015, 07:32:39 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #84 on: January 16, 2015, 12:14:48 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -4.1:

20141216,20150114,-4.1

Edit: Here is the associated plot
« Last Edit: January 16, 2015, 12:56:44 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #85 on: January 17, 2015, 12:33:35 AM »
The attached image is a snap shot of the earth wind map on Jan 16th, which shows surface level wind and total cloud water. Notice the area of clouds and low level circulation to the southwest of Baja. A tropical depression almost formed during the last 24 hr, but atmospheric and oceanic conditions were just a tiny bit too hostile. Nonetheless, the fact that a TC even got this close to developing in the E PAC during Jan is still unusual. Note the high pressure system off the US west coast. It's like summer here in So Cal right now, but I'd rather see rain.

The Second attached Image is of the latest GOES RGB satellite image (Jan 16 at 22:00 UTC). The red arrow points to the tropical disturbance.

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #86 on: January 17, 2015, 12:45:14 AM »
According to GFS driven models, moderate westerly wind anomalies are to develop between the Dateline and 140W, and potentially persist through Jan 23rd (see attached image courtesy Carl Schreck). This would likely be a bit too far east to aid in any Kelvin wave activity, but it would likely allow warmer SST's to move back into the Nino 3.4 region. I suspect that if this forecast develops as advertised, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region will either stop cooling or even warm back up slightly. However, there is a cool upwelling Kelvin wave just about to begin surfacing in the eastern Pacific. Therefore, any slow down of the cooling process may only be temporary. OF NOTE: It does appear that the recent weak WWB in the western Pacific has initiated at least a weak Kelvin wave, which should become more clear in subsurface data within the next week or so.

Also, according to GFS driven weather models, low pressure associated with the SPCZ is forecast to develop near Tahiti during the next several  days and potentially remain in place through the end of next week. This would lower SLP in that region if it were to occur. Around the same time, SLP at Darwin is forecast to rise some. IF the forecast plays out as advertised, then we could possibly see some moderate-strong negative daily SOI values in the near future.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #87 on: January 17, 2015, 12:59:22 AM »
bigB,

Thanks for all the generally excellent analysis. 

My general impression is that the Nino 3.4 will remain below the +0.5 C threshold for a few months before rising in late Spring to early Summer.  Note that the attached plot issued by the BoM today indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -3.7 and thus stays neutral.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #88 on: January 17, 2015, 08:38:52 AM »
Thank you for your updates guys.
The ECMWF nino plume.


Well, here we do have rain.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.msg43109.html#msg43109
It rained yesterday as well.

And what I also find interesting, trying to understand chaos (which I never will...), is what one of my countrymen has claimed for fifteen years. We don't understand the coriolis effect well enough and how it plays out. It should fit in this thread as well because it certainly affects our understanding of the global circulation. And yes, it does question some authorities of today. And just to be very clear, no, it does not question AGW.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1107.msg43463.html#msg43463

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #89 on: January 18, 2015, 12:44:50 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -4.9:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #90 on: January 18, 2015, 04:46:46 AM »
ASLR,

I'm just talking about the SHORT TERM (like the next few weeks or so). Here's a key excerpt from my post (#88):

Quote
...I suspect that if this forecast develops as advertised, SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region will either stop cooling or even warm back up slightly. However, there is a cool upwelling Kelvin wave just about to begin surfacing in the eastern Pacific. Therefore, any slow down of the cooling process may only be temporary...

Per CDAS data (courtesy Levi Cowan), the Nino 3 and 3.4 region are already warming back up, but agian, this is will likely be short lived. Also, SOI values are about to drop. However, there are a few strong daily SOI values soon to exit the 30 day avg. Therefore, any new strong negative daily SOI values may just cancel out those that are leaving. Lets just watch and see!!

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #91 on: January 18, 2015, 06:18:13 PM »
ASLR,

I'm just talking about the SHORT TERM (like the next few weeks or so).
...

Lets just watch and see!!

bigB,

I agree that we will need to: "... watch and see" whether the Nino 3.4 remains below +0.5 C for only a few weeks, or for a few months (or more).  Nevertheless to me, the attached NOAA image of the Eq. Pac. Subsurface Temp. Anom. for Jan. 13 2015, indicate oceanic conditions that may take months to change into oceanic conditions that could support a true El Nino event in 2015.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #92 on: January 18, 2015, 09:15:03 PM »
ASLR & BigB: first, after a week with positive values, the latest daily SOI has moved down quickly and was -29,72 according to Longpaddock. It remains to see whether this is just temporarily or not. Eyeballing BoMs 30-day moving hints a weak idea that after a time with rising values there have been a push down to even lower minimum values. The question is whether this will come true this time or not.

Second, the pic you have attached ASLR is somewhat ominously too me. I don't know how the very same map did look like last year when the huge WWB emerged but the fact that the temp anomalies in the far Western Pacific are 1-2,5C at 150-250 m depth makes one wonder how big those anomalies will be if a new major WWB will emerge.

Third, the latest TAO/NOAA wind anomalies depicts westerly anomalies covering most of WPAC with the biggest anomalies just east of Philippinia and the Date line. Take a close look at 130E, which is in the left margin of PMEL/TAO/NOAA pic and you will see positive anomalies of 4-6,2 m/s.

Fourth, latest GFS forecast for MJO is showing a possibility of a weak MJO activity over WPAC. Will be interesting to watch! See: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

Finally, eyeballing the OHC pic from NOAA give us a hint of the possibility for a new EKW to emerge. By note, the RRR in NW Pacific should be considerably weaker this year than last year. I think we have pushed the climate to a new realm in which normal rules won't be in charge. That said, we'll have to wait and see. I don't think the ocean is done with us yet, far away! The unpredictable spring barrier should be even more interesting to watch this year!

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #93 on: January 18, 2015, 09:32:04 PM »

Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of January 18th, the daily SOI value was way down at -29.72, the 30 day avg was down at -6.28, and the 90 day avg was down at -7.12. This is indicative of at least El Nino-like conditions. That is, conditions that are STILL NEUTRAL, bordering on weak El Nino. Based on recent observations and weather model forecasts, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values are likely to continue for the next several days. Some of the strongest negative daily SOI values of 2014 (see daily SOI values for Dec 23 and 24) will be exiting the 30 day avg on Thursday and Friday of next week. The 30 day avg may rise as those values exit, but not much.

The second attachment of the CDAS Nino 3.4 index, updated Jan 18th at 12z, shows that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have increased to +0.499 (essentially NOAA's arbitrary El Nino threshold). I'm not so sure that NOAA's weekly ENSO update (for Monday, Jan 19th)  will show that SSTA  in the Nino 3.4 region have increased as this trend just began a few days. It's more likely to show up in NOAA's following weekly ENSO update (for Monday, Jan 26). OF NOTE: I'm NOT saying that the cooling process is temporary (like over the next few months). I'm just saying that any slow down or stoppage of that cooling process is likely temporary (meaning, any stalling or even warming of the Nino 3.4 region will likely only last a few weeks). The cooling process is likely to resume once again as soon as westerly wind anomalies in the central and western edge of the eastern Pacific begin to fade out, and the cool upwelling Kelvin wave in the eastern Pacific begins to surface (and that cool water begins to advect back towards the west). A weak downwelling Kelvin wave has been initiated in the Western Pacific, but whether that Kelvin wave builds and becomes strong enough to help El Nino conditions re-build later in the year, will depend on WWB activity in the coming months.


bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #94 on: January 19, 2015, 04:13:58 AM »
Per the attached CDAS Nino indices, updated Jan 18th at 18z, SSTA in the Nino 3, 3.4, and 4 regions have all continued to warm up. The Nino 3.4 region is now up to +0.536 (slightly above NOAA's El Nino threshold). However, just because SST's have warmed back up over the past few days doesn’t mean much, but the cooling process has at least temporarily stalled, as was expected.....

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #95 on: January 19, 2015, 04:49:30 PM »
Per the following NOAA data, for the week centered on Jan. 14 2015, the Nino 3.4 increased to +0.5 C, which increases the probability that an El Nino event could be declared in April-May 2015 for an event beginning in Sept 2014:

                     Nino1+2       Nino3         Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #96 on: January 19, 2015, 05:20:57 PM »
It would have to stay at or above 0.5 through to the Jan Feb Mar season.

Doesn't the pentad centred on 13 Jan 2015 on the 'Sub-Surface Temperature Departures in the Equatorial Pacific' page look more like a La Nina is coming?

The remaining near surface heat in East Pacific seems to have dwindled so much, won't those negative anomalies just below take over?

But then I know very little and perhaps 7th Jan was the bottom of that oscillation and now the heat will suddenly start becoming much more extensive again.

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #97 on: January 19, 2015, 05:40:22 PM »
Latest SOI value from Longpaddock was down to -43,80 which I think should be among the lowest daily SOI-values since 2010. Anyone who has info about that? These low values should rise soon I think..

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #98 on: January 19, 2015, 08:31:24 PM »
LMV,

The daily SOI value issued by the Long Paddock today is the strongest negative value since February 2nd, 2013 (which was -47.31). Also, 2012 saw few daily values that were in the mid to upper -40's. It appears that today's daily SOI value is the 6th strongest negative value since 2010 (so it's definitely among the lowest since 2010, as you mentioned)! Based on recent observations and forecasts, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values should continue through at least the next few days with high pressure remaining in place over Darwin and low pressure associated with the SPCZ remaining in place over Tahiti. By mid-late this week, the pattern is forecast to moderate some with SLP rising at Tahiti and falling at Darwin, but some flavor of negative daily SOI values are likely to persist through much of this week. The end result, The 30 day avg will likely remain negative through the end of Jan. Provided is a link to the historical daily SOI values under the Long paddocks base period (see day 33 of 2013).

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/soidatafiles/DailySOI1887-1989Base.txt

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #99 on: January 19, 2015, 08:40:07 PM »
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center report for Jan 19 2015 states:

"There is an approximately 50-60% chance of El Niño conditions during the next two months, with ENSO-neutral favored thereafter."

Their report also includes the attached image of the Eq. Pac. Upper-Ocean Heat Anom. circa January 19 2015, that shows a low level of heat in this portion of the Pacific Ocean.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson