Provided in the first attachment are the recent (preliminary) southern oscillation index (SOI) values from the Long Paddock site. As of January 18th, the daily SOI value was way down at -29.72, the 30 day avg was down at -6.28, and the 90 day avg was down at -7.12. This is indicative of at least El Nino-like conditions. That is, conditions that are STILL NEUTRAL, bordering on weak El Nino. Based on recent observations and weather model forecasts, moderate-strong negative daily SOI values are likely to continue for the next several days. Some of the strongest negative daily SOI values of 2014 (see daily SOI values for Dec 23 and 24) will be exiting the 30 day avg on Thursday and Friday of next week. The 30 day avg may rise as those values exit, but not much.
The second attachment of the CDAS Nino 3.4 index, updated Jan 18th at 12z, shows that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have increased to +0.499 (essentially NOAA's arbitrary El Nino threshold). I'm not so sure that NOAA's weekly ENSO update (for Monday, Jan 19th) will show that SSTA in the Nino 3.4 region have increased as this trend just began a few days. It's more likely to show up in NOAA's following weekly ENSO update (for Monday, Jan 26). OF NOTE: I'm NOT saying that the cooling process is temporary (like over the next few months). I'm just saying that any slow down or stoppage of that cooling process is likely temporary (meaning, any stalling or even warming of the Nino 3.4 region will likely only last a few weeks). The cooling process is likely to resume once again as soon as westerly wind anomalies in the central and western edge of the eastern Pacific begin to fade out, and the cool upwelling Kelvin wave in the eastern Pacific begins to surface (and that cool water begins to advect back towards the west). A weak downwelling Kelvin wave has been initiated in the Western Pacific, but whether that Kelvin wave builds and becomes strong enough to help El Nino conditions re-build later in the year, will depend on WWB activity in the coming months.
