Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2015 El Niño?  (Read 600699 times)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #200 on: February 21, 2015, 12:38:02 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -2.9 (thus one could expect this index to become positive in two to three days time):

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #201 on: February 21, 2015, 01:22:53 AM »
As the following Cyclocane forecast (from today) has Tropical Cyclone Lam still moving in the general direction of Darwin, we can expect the weekly SOI not only to become positive in about two days, but to become increasingly positive for at least 4 to 5 days after that:

"TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (LAM) WAS LOCATED NEAR  12.6S 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, AND  HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #202 on: February 22, 2015, 12:27:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -0.6 (and tomorrow it will be positive):

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #203 on: February 23, 2015, 01:00:33 AM »
The following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI is now positive 0.3 (and thus remains neutral):

20150123,20150221,0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #204 on: February 23, 2015, 03:45:03 PM »
The Niño 3.4 region maintained at 0.5 C over the last week, according to NOAA. The Niño 1+2 region increased by 0.7 C, possibly as the current downwelling EKW is starting to spread ever eastward and towards the surface.

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0
 28JAN2015     24.8-0.3     26.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 04FEB2015     25.0-0.5     26.2 0.1     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 11FEB2015     25.1-0.8     26.6 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.0 0.9
 18FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.7 0.3     27.3 0.5     29.0 1.0

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #205 on: February 23, 2015, 08:20:12 PM »
The two attached NOAA images indicate that (1) the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom for Feb 23 2015 is still increasing; and (2) the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for Feb 17 2015, shows the EKW continuing to gain energy as it moves eastward; respectively.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #206 on: February 23, 2015, 09:49:44 PM »
Yes, the EKW is picking up strength, but it only did it very slowly during the last couple of days. In addition, the positive westerlies in WPAC seems to have faded out during the last week. And current forecast doesn't support an active phase of MJO in WPAC during the next 2 weeks but only a very weak such one.

However, recent GFS forecasts does indicate positive westerlies to persist for a month ahead with rather strong westerlies during the first 3 weeks.

30-daily moving average SOI-index according to Longpaddock continued to raise today (-0,73) but did so only marginally as the daily SOI value dropped down to -9,30 after almost a week with rather moderate to strong positive values.. Most likely the SOI value should go positive in a a day or so unless the values are around -10 or so for at least some days forward.

Finally, a mission for all of you here: what is the most positive PDO year you can find if you limit yourself to years being in the cold phase of PDO? I don't find any other year being more positive by eyeballing JISAO data from 1900-2014 and limit myself to the years 1900-1925 and 1946-1976 and 1999-2013...

The more I think about this, the more convinced I get that we now are leaving the cold phase PDO and going into the warm phase...

//LMV

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #207 on: February 24, 2015, 12:43:29 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.8:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 868
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 102
  • Likes Given: 290
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #208 on: February 24, 2015, 10:27:59 AM »

Finally, a mission for all of you here: what is the most positive PDO year you can find if you limit yourself to years being in the cold phase of PDO? I don't find any other year being more positive by eyeballing JISAO data from 1900-2014 and limit myself to the years 1900-1925 and 1946-1976 and 1999-2013...

The more I think about this, the more convinced I get that we now are leaving the cold phase PDO and going into the warm phase...

//LMV


Though I though us about ripe for the switch to positive I cannot remove the forcing that the triple R must have placed over the PDO regions? Has it 'forced' PDO positive? And if so will it hold with the predominance of nino's over its period?

It may be that we are in uncharted waters here with low ice setting up conditions that favour the position of the ridge and bully PDO into a positive phase. it may also be that this is all a happy coincidence and though the triple R has had impact the Pacific was already hinting at a change ( in IPO too) as trades fell back and ocean heat began to drive global temps?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #209 on: February 24, 2015, 05:01:20 PM »
The two attached plots were issued today by the BoM for the week ending Feb 22 2015 indicating that the IOD is still moving upwards and that the Nino 3.4 is at +0.43, respectively:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #210 on: February 24, 2015, 05:06:21 PM »
The four attached plots were issued today by the BoM showing the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices for the week ending Feb 22 2015, respectively.  The plots support the idea that a weak Modoki may, or may not, be declared by NOAA (note that per the BoM threshold we are below El Nino conditions now) in a couple of months time; and that possibly a classical Eastern Pacific El Nino may, or may not, develop by this coming boreal Fall:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #211 on: February 24, 2015, 05:16:31 PM »
Looks like those SSTs in the Nino4 region are here to stay.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #212 on: February 24, 2015, 06:48:29 PM »
The linked reference provides additional support for the position that extreme La Nina events will increase in frequency with continued global warming:

Antonietta Capotondi , (2015), "Atmospheric science: Extreme La Niña events to increase", Nature Climate Change, Volume: 5, Pages: 100–101, doi:10.1038/nclimate2509

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n2/full/nclimate2509.html

Abstract: "How climate change will impact the natural phenomenon La Niña, the counterpart of El Niño, has been unclear. In spite of uncertainty, now a study shows a large model consensus for an increasing frequency of extreme La Niña events."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #213 on: February 25, 2015, 01:24:31 AM »
The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.3 (and thus remains neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #214 on: February 25, 2015, 05:42:38 PM »
Todays SOI-value from Longpaddock was at -21,70 which made the 30-day moving SOI average to drop down to -0,77. The 90-day moving SOI also dropped some to -6,12.

What's interesting is what will happen to the 30-day average the next 30 days as we soon reach only weak negative values. If those negative values persist the 30-day SOI value should drop significantly if they remain below -5..

I wonder why NOAA is so slow to update the subsurface anomaly map? I'm waiting for the map for the 22 of February to show up!!

//LMV

bigB

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 481
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #215 on: February 25, 2015, 10:36:32 PM »
The first attachment shows the GFS forecast of zonal wind anomalies, updated February 25th (courtesy Carl Schreck). Moderate westerly wind anomalies have re-developed on/near the Dateline and are projected to continue into early March. If this were to develop as advertised, it would likely support further strengthening of the latest downwelling Kelvin wave and also allow SSTA near the Dateline to increase a bit.

The second attachment shows the GFS 180 hr forecast of SLP, wind speed, and precipitation for the North Pacific, updated Feb 25th (courtesy Surfline.com). Of some concern, high pressure is beginning to take over essentially the entire North Pacific. The GFS model is suggesting that this pattern will remain locked in place for the foreseeable future. This pattern is the opposite of what one would expect to see during a very positive PDO. If this pattern remains in place long enough (I would guess 2-3 weeks or more), it will cause the PDO index to drop. This is because this pattern would result in above avg SLP anomalies across the north Pacific and upwelling of cool water along the US west coast (NOTE: Prolonged N-NW winds along the US west coast will ALWAYS result in upwelling of cool water. See link). High pressure has indeed been in place off the coast of CA during the past few months, but it has been relatively weak, spotty, and small (mostly confined to So Cal). The high pressure systems that are currently developing are a whole different story. I'm not saying the PDO index will become negative, just that the positive values will weaken if this pattern persists. I suspect it would take at least a few months of this pattern to really drop the PDO index. This pattern is normally what one would expect to see around April or May (and we're in late February). Just something to watch. Also, the N PAC jet stream has also become a fragmented split flow mess (rather than a strong consolidated low latitude zonal flow). We'll have to see what happens in the coming weeks and what impacts the latest downwelling Kelvin wave has on things once it really begins to surface around late March/early April.

http://oceanography.asu.edu/Oc_Oct24_pos.pdf

LMV,

I suspect that for at least the next week, the SOI will either remain around what it currently is or slowly drop (based on the GFS model and current observations).

EDIT: The third attachment shows the GFS hindcast of Jet Stream wind speed and height for Feb 25th (top), and the GFS forecast of Jet Stream wind speed and height for March 5th (bottom). Images courtesy of Stormsurf.com. The Jet Stream has become weak, split, and fragmented, supporting high pressure across the North Pacific.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2015, 12:10:54 AM by bigB »

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #216 on: February 26, 2015, 01:07:14 AM »
The attached current BoM summary of Nino 3.4 forecasts for July 2015, indicate that the vast majority of ENSO models are bullish for El Nino conditions developing by then:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #217 on: February 26, 2015, 01:36:40 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI remains unchanged at +0.3:

20150126,20150224,0.3
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #218 on: February 26, 2015, 04:00:46 PM »
The western Pacific warm pool is growing nicely, as evidenced by the latest weekly upper ocean heat content data from NOAA. In the second attachment, the current downwelling EKW has not made much eastward progression too recently, but is just as well gathering heat, with core anomalies up to 5 C now. Maybe by late March or early April, the nose of the EKW steers towards the surface of the eastern Pacific. We may well have an "official" double dip El Niño beginning September 2014, if the ocean data bears out. It's a slow burner, but compared to a year ago this time, the central Pacific is now about 1 C warmer, as it's behaving with great determination.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #219 on: February 26, 2015, 04:16:08 PM »
Just to supplement all of the points that DO just made:

The first attached NOAA image shows that the SSTA in the Eq. Pac 5N - 5S is consistently transitioning into an El Nino pattern.

The second attached NOAA image shows that the Eq Pacific Upper-Ocean Heat Anomaly is continuing to strengthen and is about equal to what it was this time last year.

The third NOAA image for Feb 22 2015 shows that the EKW is gaining size & strength (but does not show the 5 C temp anom. shown in DO's image).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #220 on: February 27, 2015, 12:30:27 AM »
Per the attached plot issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.2 (and thus is still neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #221 on: February 27, 2015, 12:42:19 AM »
The linked NOAA blog article discusses a comparison of NOAA's 2014 ENSO forecast vs the observed (see February 2014 forecast vs observed plot):

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/were-model-predictions-el-ni%C3%B1o-big-bust
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #222 on: February 27, 2015, 12:54:32 AM »
The linked NOAA blog article indicates that: "So far in 2014-15, we have not seen large-scale precipitation anomalies over the globe (including the United States) that clearly resemble those expected during El Niño."  See also the attached image:

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/do-recent-global-precipitation-anomalies-resemble-those-el-ni%C3%B1o
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #223 on: February 28, 2015, 12:20:45 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +0.7 (thus remaining neutral):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #224 on: March 01, 2015, 01:30:57 AM »
Per the following data issued by the BoM today, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to +0.2:

20150129,20150227,0.2

Edit: Here is the associated plot
« Last Edit: March 01, 2015, 06:14:55 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #225 on: March 01, 2015, 06:22:59 PM »
Given the highly variable nature of MJO forecasts, this post may ultimately prove to be premature; nevertheless, the two attached plots of the ECMM, and NOAA/NCPE, MJO forecasts through March 15 2015, respectively, indicate that after mid-March the MJO may be rapidly strengthening as it approaches the International Dateline.  If this trend continues, and the Nino 3.4 index remains above +0.5 C, and cloud cover increases near the dateline, and if some equatorial Pacific cyclonic activity occurs simultaneous (i.e. several ifs); then it is conceivable that the Walker Cell could flip into a classic El Nino configuration by late March, or early April, 2015 (as it almost did in 2014, see the 2014 El Nino thread).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #226 on: March 02, 2015, 12:51:34 AM »
Per the following data and the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +0.2:

20150130,20150228,0.2
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

crandles

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2679
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #227 on: March 02, 2015, 03:00:46 PM »
Quote
The latest weekly SST
departures are:
Niño 4 1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.1ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.1ºC
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

               Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 17DEC2014     22.9 0.1     26.0 0.8     27.4 0.8     29.4 1.0
 24DEC2014     23.1-0.2     26.0 0.7     27.3 0.7     29.3 0.9
 31DEC2014     23.6 0.0     25.9 0.6     27.1 0.5     29.2 0.8
 07JAN2015     23.7-0.2     25.9 0.4     27.0 0.4     29.1 0.7
 14JAN2015     24.0-0.4     25.9 0.3     27.1 0.5     29.1 0.9
 21JAN2015     24.3-0.4     26.1 0.3     27.2 0.6     29.2 1.0
 28JAN2015     24.8-0.3     26.2 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 04FEB2015     25.0-0.5     26.2 0.1     27.2 0.5     29.1 0.9
 11FEB2015     25.1-0.8     26.6 0.3     27.2 0.5     29.0 0.9
 18FEB2015     26.1-0.1     26.7 0.3     27.3 0.5     29.0 1.0

So 3.4 averaging just above 0.5 for Jan Feb, but recent rise seems due to Kelvin wave which is likely to pass before end of March, so for the Jan,Feb,Mar average it is still unclear whether the 0.5 can be maintained.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #228 on: March 02, 2015, 04:25:38 PM »
The two attached plots were issued by NOAA today, respectively, showing that the Eq Pac SSTA, and Upper Ocean Heat Anom, are slightly higher than they were this time last year; which should imply a better chance of a classical El Nino developing this coming boreal summer.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #229 on: March 02, 2015, 07:28:28 PM »
Super strong Westerly wind Burst to come?! :o

Latest PMEL/TAO analyze from NOAA shows positive anomalies encompassing the whole Western Pacific. See: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh

Even more remarkable is the latest forecast from CFS NOAA with respect to MJO. Todays runs (as of March 2) shows the possibility of a very very strong phase of MJO to evolve in about 1½ week. See attached image below! (courtesy: NOAA)

The main question is: was last years MJO activity even stronger than this aforemented forecast? I became a member here sometime by April-14 if my memory isn't failing too much. At that time the strong WWB that spawned the huge EKW had faded out almost completely.

In addition, the latest CFS runs have lately shown decent positive anomalies:


Those positive anomalies seems to continue by week 3 & 4 and eventually become even stronger. See: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/sweaver/cfs_fcst/images1/wk3.wk4_20150301.wnd850.gif

So where are we? Well, if the forecasts come true, I think there is a good chance that the current EKW may rival last years huge one and surely, if surfacing, increasing the odds for flipping the Walker cell into a full blown El Niño!!

What's your thoughts folk?

Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #230 on: March 02, 2015, 07:50:55 PM »
So where are we? Well, if the forecasts come true, I think there is a good chance that the current EKW may rival last years huge one and surely, if surfacing, increasing the odds for flipping the Walker cell into a full blown El Niño!!

What's your thoughts folk?

Best, LMV

LMV,

First, the first attached Albany U. plot of the Eq Pac 850 - hPa (surface) wind forecast issued today, supports the position that strong WWBs will occur near the International Dateline beginning around March 10.

Second, the second attachment shows that the ECMM MJO forecast is similar to, but less bullish, than NOAA's MJO forecast.

With this in mind, it is my opinion that with the Nino 3.4 index at +0.6 C, there is no need for the current EKW in order for the Walker Cell to flip into an El Nino pattern sometime between March 21 and April 14, 2015, all that it takes is for the WWB's to last until the projected strong MJO makes it to the International Dateline (plus a week or two of sustained conditions for the Walker Cell to flip).

If so the current EKW could grow to be much stronger than last year's EKW by the time that it surfaces off the coast of Ecuador by the end of April to the beginning of May.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #231 on: March 02, 2015, 08:07:36 PM »
ASLR: I just checked the most recent ECMWF forecast run (12z) which actually was hinting of a "low rider" TC to develop in the area of about 5-8N and 160-165E. THAT would certainly strengthen our aforemented WWB...

//LMV

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #232 on: March 02, 2015, 08:27:45 PM »
ASLR: I just checked the most recent ECMWF forecast run (12z) which actually was hinting of a "low rider" TC to develop in the area of about 5-8N and 160-165E. THAT would certainly strengthen our aforemented WWB...

//LMV

With a SPCZ possibly forming by mid-March, we could have cyclonic activity both north and south of the equator just west of the International Dateline; which if it were to occur, would generate high WWB's indeed, during the third week of March.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #233 on: March 03, 2015, 12:58:59 AM »
The following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to +0.8:

20150131,20150301,0.8

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: March 03, 2015, 03:32:34 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #234 on: March 03, 2015, 04:36:24 PM »
The BoM overview (see extract & the first attached image) indicates that the chances of a classical ENSO occurring in 2015 have increased:

Extract: "The Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH. This is due to a combination of warmer-than-average temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean and models showing that further warming is likely in coming months. El Niño WATCH indicates about a 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2015.

The central to western regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed by 0.2 °C to 0.3 °C over the past fortnight, while monthly sub-surface temperatures were more than 2 °C above average over a large area for February. This is largely the result of weakened trade winds and tropical surface currents in recent weeks. Weakened trade winds are forecast to continue, and this may induce further warming.

All international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that central tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are likely to remain warmer than average, but within the neutral range, until at least May. By mid-year, six of the eight models indicate SSTs will exceed El Niño thresholds. However, accuracy of forecasts made at this time are lower than those at other times of the year, and hence some caution should be exercised."

The second & third attached images were issued by the BoM for the week ending March 1 2015, with the second image indicating that the Nino 3.4 is trending upward to +0.66, while the third image shows that the IOD is still fluctuating.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #235 on: March 03, 2015, 04:43:19 PM »
The attached images were issued today by the BoM for the week ending March 1 2015, for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively.  These conditions may (or may not) support the formal declaration of a classical Eastern Pacific El Nino towards the end of the boreal summer.  Note that they also could (or might not) support the formal declaration of a Modoki event (without Walker Cell support) by late April; however, such a declaration could be interpreted as an indication that global warming has changed the base state of the Tropical Pacific (by promoting more frequent and stronger oscillations of the PDO/IPO).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #236 on: March 03, 2015, 06:10:45 PM »
The first three images were issued today by NOAA.

The first image shows that on Feb 27 2015 the current EKW was continuing to strengthen (increasing the chance of a classical El Nino in 2015).
The second image shows that on March 3 2015, the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly was keeping pace with last years high rate of build-up (supporting the chances of an El Nino in 2015)
The third image shows the GFS MJO forecast from today through March 17 2015; indicating an extremely bullish forecast that a strong MJO may approach the International Dateline by the start of the third week in March; which, if combined with strong WWB activity, could possibly flip the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern.

The fourth image shows that the ECMM MJO forecast parallels the GFS forecast, but is somewhat less bullish.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1275
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 28
  • Likes Given: 22
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #237 on: March 03, 2015, 07:45:07 PM »
One thing that one might wonder about is the cold pool in the far western Pacific (west of 140E). There are very small signs that the cold pool is neutralizing the edge of the warm pool.. 

Otherwise, the most visible change is in the area around 140W where the warm pool have warmed considerably the last 5 days. (22-27 February). If one looks closely there are signs that the current EKW already is surfacing..

Latest GFS 12z run hints of the formation of a TC at +180h at about 5S while the last couple of ECMWF runs have been hinting that a TC will form at about 5N... Let's see which one of the hemispheres that will se a TC :)

//LMV

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #238 on: March 03, 2015, 11:12:26 PM »
One thing that one might wonder about is the cold pool in the far western Pacific (west of 140E). There are very small signs that the cold pool is neutralizing the edge of the warm pool.. 

Otherwise, the most visible change is in the area around 140W where the warm pool have warmed considerably the last 5 days. (22-27 February). If one looks closely there are signs that the current EKW already is surfacing..

Latest GFS 12z run hints of the formation of a TC at +180h at about 5S while the last couple of ECMWF runs have been hinting that a TC will form at about 5N... Let's see which one of the hemispheres that will se a TC :)

//LMV

The attached image of the Albany U. forecast for March 11 2015 shows a weak TD just north of the equator and a TC around 11S, both working to build the WWB.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #239 on: March 03, 2015, 11:50:01 PM »
The attached Wundermap for March 18 2015 shows a SPCZ in the Southern Hemisphere, and a TC north of the equator.  I note that this date is getting closer to the time when the active phase of the MJO may show-up near the International Dateline.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #240 on: March 04, 2015, 01:35:33 AM »
The attached plot & the following data issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has remained constant at +0.8:


20150129,20150227,0.2
20150130,20150228,0.2
20150131,20150301,0.8
20150201,20150302,0.8
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #241 on: March 04, 2015, 04:00:56 PM »
I am travel for the next few days so my posts may be erratic until I get back; however, before I depart, I provide the attached NOAA GFS MJO forecast through March 18 2015; which is even more bullish (for a possible Walker Cell flip by late March - early April) than yesterday:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #242 on: March 05, 2015, 03:03:24 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to +1.4:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #243 on: March 05, 2015, 10:37:52 AM »
Notice the cooling in the western region now, that's normally what you see during an El Nino.
The previous years that made it down to the 28°C line are 2003, 2005 and 2010.




deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #244 on: March 05, 2015, 03:37:40 PM »
NOAA officially calls it: We are in El Niño conditions.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html


Quote
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
 

Synopsis: There is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015.

...

Compared to last month, several more models indicate El Niño (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index equal to or greater than 0.5oC) will continue throughout 2015 (Fig. 7). This is supported by the recent increase in subsurface temperatures and near-term model predictions of the continuation of low-level westerly wind anomalies across parts of the equatorial Pacific. However, model forecast skill tends to be lower during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which contributes to progressively lower probabilities of El Niño through the year. In summary, there is an approximately 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through Northern Hemisphere summer 2015 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear in some locations during the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.

The ONI index for DJF has been updated with a 0.6 C print.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #245 on: March 05, 2015, 04:35:43 PM »
I like this graph and page by Jan Null, as it tells a better story than those limits used to declare El Nino or La Nina. I don't know how many times I have looked at it just to compare past years.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17591
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 819
  • Likes Given: 299
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #246 on: March 05, 2015, 05:24:47 PM »
Back to basics.  Anyone disagree with this El Niño decision chart?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

viddaloo

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #247 on: March 05, 2015, 05:56:30 PM »
Quote
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
[]

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #248 on: March 05, 2015, 09:17:54 PM »
Back to basics.  Anyone disagree with this El Niño decision chart?

Not really, except from the temperatures, maybe people tend to look to much at the +/-0.5°C?
The peruvian fishermen that named it didn't need NOAA.
BoM uses +/-0.8°C.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices/about.shtml

For more basic history, Scandinavians are always essential. ;D
Ekman, Rossby, Palmén and of course Jack Bjerknes. The following article was written by Anders Persson and gives a nice historical perspective.
http://meteohistory.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/HOM6_02_Persson_fifty_years_later-1.pdf
About Bjerknes and links to two of his papers.
http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/ENSO/New/bjerknes.html

Does someone have Palmén's paper from 1969?
Atmospheric Circulation Systems. Their Structural and Physical Interpretation. E. Palmén and C. W. Newton.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18668
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1952
  • Likes Given: 255
Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #249 on: March 06, 2015, 12:29:26 AM »
The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to +1.0:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson