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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #600 on: May 07, 2015, 05:22:21 PM »
The two attached NOAA MJO forecasts from May 7 to 21 2015 (for the GFS Ensemble and the NCPE, respectively) both support the idea that from May 13 to 15 the will likely be WWB activity at the equator near 130E to 165E.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #601 on: May 07, 2015, 06:46:03 PM »
The first attached NOAA SSTA map for May 7 2015 shows the extent of the current positive PDO/IPO.  Furthermore, as the Nino 3.4 index is measured from 170W to 120W (see the second attached image), one can see that the current WWB will need to blow a large volume of warm water eastward in order for the aggressive NOAA CFSv2 Nino 3.4 projections (see the third attached image) to be realized.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #602 on: May 07, 2015, 08:42:19 PM »
The attached image shows a comparison between the OSPO SSTA charts for May 10th, 1997 (top) and May 7th, 2015 (bottom). NOTE: For easier viewing purposes I rearranged the layout of the 1997 image to mach that of the 2015 image. SSTA charts from 1997 and 2015 are produced using the same climatological base period (1985-1993). However, SST's have warmed slightly since that period. Therefore, comparing 1997 to 2015 using this data may be slightly inaccurate. Anyways, note the recent burst of warm water between the Galapagos Islands and coast of Ecuador, which is comparable to 1997. Interesting!

EDIT: Just wanted to quickly note that the GFS model is now calling for the development of cross-equatorial TC's around the middle part of next week. If this were to occur, it would keep the WWB going well into mid May. Where last year failed, this year may not...
« Last Edit: May 07, 2015, 09:59:20 PM by bigB »

Sigmetnow

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #603 on: May 07, 2015, 09:56:06 PM »
Sydney Morning Herald:  World headed for an El Nino and it could be a big one, scientists say
Quote
Scientists, though, are surprised that the build-up of unusual warmth in the eastern Pacific compared with the west is happening so early in the year. "It's quite rare – this is an interesting one," Dr Santoso said.
...
It's the early start to the process, though, that has climate scientists concerned the planet may be on course for a particularly strong El Nino event.

"If it peaks in winter then dies off it's interesting," Dr Santoso said. "But if it keeps going up and peaks in summer, that could potentially be a big El Nino."
...
Last year at this time, we didn't see the [westerly] winds," Dr Cai said. "This time, we see the strong westerly winds all along the equator."

If anything, forecasters have been overly cautious, he added. Some models generated by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and not widely seen are pointing to "humungous anomalies" of as much as 5 degrees by October- November for parts of the eastern Pacific.

Even the ensemble of models is pointing to a 3-degree temperature anomaly by then, placing the departure from the norm in a similar league to previously powerful events such as the "super El Nino" of 1997 or 1982, Dr Cai said, cautioning that conditions could yet ease back.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/world-headed-for-an-el-nino-and-it-could-be-a-big-one-scientists-say-20150507-ggw8bo.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #604 on: May 08, 2015, 03:40:32 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted down to -5.1:

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #605 on: May 08, 2015, 04:35:40 PM »
The first image shows the Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map for May 8 2015 showing that the surface pressure over Tahiti is very low today (The Long Paddock Station daily SOI was below -30 today), that TD 07W (Seven) is lingering near 3.4N 162E (see extract from Cyclocane) and that Typhoon Noul has moved to far away from the equator to impact our current WWB.

Extract from Cyclocane May 8 2015: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 080000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 3.5N 161.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1178 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 080000Z, TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N
130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS."

The second attached image of the U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 8 to 15 2015; shows that the WWB forecast is even more bullish for El Nino conditions than yesterday.

The third image from the BoM today indicates that the cloud cover near the equatorial dateline is increasing at the moment and has been unusually cloudy for sometime now.

The fourth image from NOAA shows the Eq Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom through May 8 2015; indicating that the recent decline in this index has stopped (probably due to the impact of the current WWB).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #606 on: May 08, 2015, 08:50:47 PM »
Latest GFS run indicates that a third tropical cyclone may form in the same area as Tropical Storm Dolphin, e.g around 160E but somewhat further north at 5-10N. This could give some extra boost to WWB...

Todays value from Longpaddock was -32,3 which put the SOI 30-day average down to -5,26.

//LMV

bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #607 on: May 08, 2015, 09:47:37 PM »
Latest GFS run indicates that a third tropical cyclone may form in the same area as Tropical Storm Dolphin, e.g around 160E but somewhat further north at 5-10N. This could give some extra boost to WWB...

Todays value from Longpaddock was -32,3 which put the SOI 30-day average down to -5,26.

//LMV

The GFS model also suggests that we could be in for a big drop in 30 day avg SOI values during the next week or so. 

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #608 on: May 09, 2015, 03:19:03 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -6.5:

20150408,20150507,-6.5

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: May 09, 2015, 04:07:31 AM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #609 on: May 09, 2015, 03:43:37 PM »
Let me start my noting that the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for May 9 2015 was -46.9

Next, the following Cyclone forecast (see also the first attached image) shows that TS 07W is still providing a powerful WWB:

Extract: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 090000Z, TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  126.1E, APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD  TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS GUSTING  TO 115 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 090000Z, TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR  4.5N 162.5E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE, AND HAD  TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."

Finally, the second attached image shows the Earth Surface Wind & MSLP map for May 9 2015, indicating: (a) the severe low pressure system over Tahiti (see the Long Paddock Station daily SOI); and the strength of the TS 07W WWB.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #610 on: May 09, 2015, 05:51:08 PM »
The first two MJO forecasts from May 9 to 23 2015 from the GFS Ensemble, and the NCPE, respectively, indicate that from about May 15 to 19 2015, the MJO should promote atmospheric convection on either side of the equator near 140E to 150E.

The third image shows the WunderMap forecast of the TS 07W storm track superimposed on current convective activity in the current Western Pacific monsoon trough area.

The four image shows the WunderMap forecast for May 15 2015 (when the relatively strong MJO is forecast to be near 140E to 150E), indicating two low pressure systems near 140E to 150E on either side of the equator; which support a reasonable magnitude WWB in this area at that time (if the forecast holds).

Edit: Note that I changed "165E" to "140E to 150E"
« Last Edit: May 09, 2015, 06:52:44 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #611 on: May 09, 2015, 06:56:23 PM »
The U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 9 to 16 2015, has finally been issued so I provide it here; and I note that it supports the discussion in my prior to posts in this thread today, which shows the current WWB weakening and then a new WWB starting around May 15 2015, closer to 140E to 155E.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #612 on: May 10, 2015, 03:54:38 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -7.1:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #613 on: May 10, 2015, 03:32:57 PM »
Per the first Cyclocane map and the following extract for May 10 2015, TS Dolphin is still working of the opposite side of the equator with the low pressure system north of the Solomon Islands to continue the current WWB, as is indicated by the second attached image of the Earth Surface Wind % MSLP Map for May 10 2015 (also note the negative SOI pattern).

Cyclocane extract: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 100000Z, SUPER TYPHOON 06W (NOUL) WAS LOCATED NEAR  17.0N 123.3E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES,  AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 140 KNOTS GUSTING TO 170 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 100300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 100000Z, TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 160.4E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Lord M Vader

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #614 on: May 10, 2015, 04:13:40 PM »
The GFS NOAA forecast for 850 hPa winds during the next 4 weeks is highly interesting!!!

Week 1: Strong WWB will continue to be in charge west of Dateline. In the far Eastern Pacific negative wind anomalies should disrupt our current surfacing EKW this time.

Week 2: our WWB seems to weaken but on the other hand the positive westerly wind anomalies will merge further eastward. 

Week 3: Now things are going to be really interesting! If this forecast verifies a rather strong WWB should take place 140-120W which surely would push waarm water to the EPAC coast.

Week 4: while being quite far away in time, positive westerlies should most likely dominate through virtually the whole Pacific continuing to push warm water eastward and continue to selfsustain El Niño conditions :)

Daily Longpaddock value was -44,3 today, pushing the 30-day average down to -7,47.. We should be back in El Niño territory in about 1-2 days. When was the last time we saw a daily value below -46,90 inclusive two consecutive days with SOI-value below -44?

Latest GFS 06z run suggests that a third TC will form in about a week ahead around 160-170E. ECMWF 00z run supports the idea of a third TC but have the formation to be somewhere between 150-160E.

Best, LMV

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #615 on: May 10, 2015, 04:51:39 PM »
The daily value will probably weaken some over the next couple of days, but pressures are forecast to continue to rise over Darwin over the next week, which will keep the index moderately to strongly negative (probably in the -20 range) for some time.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #616 on: May 10, 2015, 05:39:04 PM »
The first two images for the MJO forecast from May 10 to 24 2015 for the GFS Ensemble, and the NCPE, respectively.  They show that while the MJO forecast is a little less bullish than yesterday, they indicate that the MJO is likely still on track to generate more atmospheric convective activity near the equator from 140E to 155E from about May 14 to 18 2015 (which should help to create more WWB activity then).

The third image shows the U of Albany 5S-5N 200 hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 10 to 17 2015, indicating to me that the fourth image of the Earth 250 hPa Wind Anom Map showing a current mild El Nino pattern exhibited by the Walker Cell should continue through at least May 17 2015.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #617 on: May 10, 2015, 05:47:04 PM »
The attached U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom Forecast from May 10 to 17 2015 more or less supports the Week 1 GFS forecast that LMV posted.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #618 on: May 11, 2015, 03:06:44 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -8.5 (and thus is in the El Nino range):

20150410,20150509,-8.5


Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 03:37:15 AM by AbruptSLR »
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bigB

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #619 on: May 11, 2015, 04:01:59 AM »
The attached image shows a comparison between the TAO plots of zonal wind means and anomalies for data ending March 10th (top 2 plots), and May 9th (bottom 2 plots). Per TAO data, the current WWB is almost (but not quite) as strong as the big WWB that occurred back in March.

NOTE: The WWB that occurred back in March peaked around the 10th according to TAO data.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #620 on: May 11, 2015, 04:12:17 PM »
As I am not sure whether DO is pre-occupied, I provide the following NOAA data for the Nino indices through the week centered on May 6 2015; which shows that both the Nino 1+2, and the Nino 3 became more positive, Nino 3.4 remained constant at 1.0, and Nino 4 became less positive.

                       Nino1+2    Nino3        Nino34     Nino4
Week            SST SSTA    SST SSTA     SST SSTA   SST SSTA   
 01APR2015     27.4 1.4     27.9 0.6     28.2 0.7     29.5 1.1
 08APR2015     26.7 0.9     27.9 0.5     28.4 0.7     29.6 1.2
 15APR2015     26.8 1.3     28.3 0.8     28.7 0.9     29.7 1.3
 22APR2015     26.7 1.5     28.4 1.0     28.7 1.0     29.9 1.3
 29APR2015     26.8 1.9     28.3 1.0     28.8 1.0     30.0 1.4
 06MAY2015    26.9 2.3     28.4 1.2     28.8 1.0     29.9 1.2
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #621 on: May 11, 2015, 04:23:04 PM »
The first image shows the corrected CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast & associated SSTA projections.

The second image shows the Eq Pac SSTA Evolution through about May 11 2015; showing the decrease in Nino 4 index.

The third image shows the Eq Pac Upper Ocean Heat Anom through about May 11 2015; showing that while this parameter has almost plateaued, it is still becoming slowly less positive.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #622 on: May 11, 2015, 07:06:25 PM »
The first image shows the Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map for May 11 2015, showing that both the daily SOI is negative (I note that the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for May 11 2015 was: -40.40) and that the current WWB is still fairly strong.

The second attached image shows the NCPE MJO forecast from May 11 to 25 2015, indicating that the previously projected MJO activity near 140E to 155E has been decreased in the May 13 to 18 timeframe, thus indicating that the WWB projections in this area should also be decreased.

The third attached image of the U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa Wind Anom forecast from May 11 to 18 2015, confirms the findings of the first two images (ie that the WWB forecast after May 12 are less bullish than yesterday).

These images may (or may not) support the idea that our currently weak El Nino pattern for the Walker Cell is very slowly transitioning into a stronger El Nino pattern (we will need to watch for a few weeks to see if such a transition is actually occurring as the current EKW continues to surface, which may support strong oceanic-atmospheric coupling).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #623 on: May 11, 2015, 07:38:28 PM »
I forgot that DO normally posts the attached SSTA image together with Nino indices update.  So better late than never, here is NOAA's SSTA image for May 11 2015; verifying that the EKW is actively surfacing and is rapidly driving up the SSTA values offshore of South America (this supports the idea that this will soon reinforce a positive oceanic-atmospheric coupling feedback mechanism that could drive us from a weak El Nino condition into a strong El Nino condition).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #624 on: May 11, 2015, 08:00:29 PM »
The attached image shows a comparison between the OSPO SSTA charts for May 12th, 1997 (top) and May 11th, 2015 (bottom). Warming in the Eastern equatorial Pacific associated with the surfacing Kelvin wave remains comparable to 1997.

NOTE: For easier viewing purposes I rearranged the layout of the 1997 image to mach that of the 2015 image. SSTA charts for 1997 and 2015 were produced using the same climatological base period (1985-1993). However, SST's have warmed slightly since that period. Therefore, comparing 1997 to 2015 using this data may be slightly inaccurate.

ASLR,

The upper ocean heat anomaly plot you provided in reply #623 is from May 3, the same one you provided in reply #607. The data hasn't been updated yet.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #625 on: May 11, 2015, 11:05:42 PM »
ASLR,

The upper ocean heat anomaly plot you provided in reply #623 is from May 3, the same one you provided in reply #607. The data hasn't been updated yet.

First, did you drag the bar beneath the image to the right so that you can see the new information?

Second:

The linked reference indicates that natural variability dominated the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship in the 20th century, but that in the 21st century anthropogenic forcing may be changing this natural relationship.

Xiaoqiong Li & Mingfang Ting (2015), "Recent and future changes in the Asian monsoon-ENSO relationship: Natural or forced?", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063557

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL063557/full

Abstract: "The Asian monsoon-ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) relationship in the 20th and 21st centuries is examined using observations and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. CMIP5 models can simulate the ENSO-monsoon spatial structure reasonably well when using the multimodel mean. Running correlations show prominent decadal variability of the ENSO-monsoon relationship in observations. The modeled ENSO-monsoon relation shows large intermodel spread, indicating large variations across the model ensemble. The anthropogenically forced component of ENSO-monsoon relationship is separated from the naturally varying component based on a signal-to-noise maximizing empirical orthogonal function analysis using global sea surface temperature (SST). Results show that natural variability plays a dominant role in the varied ENSO-monsoon relationship during the 20th century. In the 21st century, the forced component is dominated by enhanced monsoon rainfall associated with SST warming, which may contribute to a slightly weakened ENSO-monsoon relation in the future."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #626 on: May 11, 2015, 11:26:52 PM »
The linked reference discusses the role of SWWs on the response of Central El Nino events:

Maddalen Iza & Natalia Calvo (2015), "Role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings on the response to Central Pacific El Niño", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL062935

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062935/full

Abstract: "The Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratospheric response to Central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño) events remains unclear. Contradictory results have been reported depending on the definition and events considered. We show that this is due to the prominent role of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings (SSWs), whose signal dominates the NH winter polar stratospheric response to CP-El Niño. In fact, the CP-El Niño signal is robust when the events are classified according to the occurrence of SSWs and displays opposite response in winters with and without SSWs. In the absence of SSWs, polar stratospheric responses to Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific El Niño are clearly distinguishable in early winter, in relation to differences in the Pacific-North American pattern. Our results demonstrate that the occurrence of SSWs needs to be taken into account when studying the stratospheric response to CP-El Niño and explain why different responses to CP-El Niño have been reported previously."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #627 on: May 11, 2015, 11:35:55 PM »
ASLR,

Yes, it's definitely the same. No big deal just thought I'd let you know.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #628 on: May 11, 2015, 11:56:06 PM »
ASLR,

Yes, it's definitely the same. No big deal just thought I'd let you know.

bigB,

It appears that NOAA has not updated this plot recently, as I posted the latest image available from the following site.  Sorry for any confusion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #629 on: May 12, 2015, 03:11:00 AM »
Per the following data issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -9.9:

20150411,20150510,-9.9

Edit: Here is the plot
« Last Edit: May 12, 2015, 03:49:50 AM by AbruptSLR »
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deep octopus

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #630 on: May 12, 2015, 03:29:03 AM »
ASLR and bigB, thanks for providing such articulate updates. Yes, I've been a bit busy these last couple of days, so I've been taking care to cross my t's and dot my i's, but still trying to glean the highlights until things slow down a bit.

I thought I'd post my somewhat weekly zonal wind update, now that we are passing the peak of the latest WWB. The attachment shows the clear westerly activity west of the dateline extending up to the tropopause. Weak easterly activity is shown in the lower atmosphere east of the dateline. The WWB is going to reinforce the warm water transfer to the east though. One thing to add to ASLR's weekly SST anomaly update is that the Niño 3 region moved up to 1.2 C and is tied with the Niño 4 region. The temperature gradient across the Pacific is trending towards a more level field, and my thought here is that the WWB is likely to keep this momentum going, what with the continuous eye of red that is centered on the dateline and ready to advance east. Per CFS, the Niño 4 region is expected to continue warming, but not at the pace the eastern regions will, and it is expected to ultimately cool around fall. The Niño 1+2 regions are at their warmest point since June 1998. So something of a classical/canonical El Niño is being well-established.

Regards.

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #631 on: May 12, 2015, 04:25:46 AM »
The attached image shows the OSCAR plots of equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents means and anomalies for data centered on May 7th. Per this data, the North equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) is  flowing stronger than normal from west to east, while the South Equatorial Current (SEC) is for the most part flowing weaker than normal from east to west. Overall, this indicates that equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents are flowing in favor of El Nino. The only area of concern is associated with the (SEC) between 160W-140W. Other than that, warm water is generally flowing from west to east. Since LMV recently mentioned the possibility of easterly winds disrupting the surfacing Kelvin wave, I wanted to note that as long as the current pattern of ocean surface currents remains in place, any weak or short lived easterly wind in the eastern Pacific would likely not be able to disrupt the surfacing Kelvin wave. However, if moderate-strong easterly winds were to blow for a long enough period of time, say maybe 2-3 weeks or more, it could easily reverse the current pattern (of ocean surface currents), enhance upwelling, and the surfacing Kelvin wave would indeed struggle. This is very likely what happened last year around late June. Moderate-strong WWB activity stopped, easterly winds picked up, and ocean surface currents flipped into a pattern that favored La Nina (pushing a majority of warm water quickly back toward the west), which happened to coincide with an approaching upwelling Kelvin wave. By mid July 2014, much of the momentum built up during the late winter and spring was lost. It then took several months for El Nino conditions to re-build again. That looks much less likely to occur this year.

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #632 on: May 12, 2015, 06:36:41 AM »
It'll be interesting to see If the BOM finally jumps on board and declares an official El Nino state tomorrow. 

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #633 on: May 12, 2015, 07:26:04 AM »
There we have it. BoM have called the El Nino.


The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.
International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
El Niño is often associated with below-average winter and spring rainfall over eastern Australia, and above-average daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country. However, the current May to July outlook suggests much of Australia is likely to be wetter than average. This is because a warmer-than-average Indian Ocean is dominating this outlook. El Niño is expected to become the dominant influence on Australian climate during the second half of the year.
Open other end.

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #634 on: May 12, 2015, 04:26:39 PM »
As icefest points out per the BoM ENSO Summary issued today, we are now officially in an El Nino condition (per the BoM) until they declare otherwise.

BoM ENSO Summary extract: "El Niño in the tropical Pacific
The ENSO Tracker has been raised from ALERT to EL NIÑO status.
El Niño thresholds have been exceeded in the latest monthly and weekly tropical Pacific oceanic and atmospheric data. Sea surface temperatures are now at least 0.8 °C above normal; the western Pacific trade winds have been persistently weak; and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) continues to be negative. Climate models monitored by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm in coming months, remaining above El Niño levels.
El Niño is often associated with below-average rainfall across eastern Australia in winter and spring, and also warmer-than-normal daytime temperatures over the southern half of the country.
This EL NIÑO status remains valid until the Bureau declares this event over. Please consult the ENSO Wrap-Up for updates on this event. "

The first & second images issued today by the BoM through the week ending May 10 2015, indicate that both the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively, fluctuated downward, but the Nino 3.4 was still strong at +0.97.

The third was also issued today by the BoM, and shows the TAO subsurface temperature and temperature anomaly for May 11 2015 showing that the EKW is surfacing strongly offshore of South America and that there is some signs of warm water moving eastward from the Western Pacific warm water pool.

The fourth image issued today by NOAA shows the Eq Pac Subsurface Temp Anom for May 8 2015, which largely supports the direct TAO measurements.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #635 on: May 12, 2015, 04:31:27 PM »
The four attached images were issued today by the BoM for the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, through the week ending May 10 2015.  While the Nino 4 index is down, the Nino 1, 2 & 3 indices are up strongly; indicating that we are likely moving into a classical strong El Nino pattern.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #636 on: May 12, 2015, 04:59:46 PM »
The first image shows the Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map for May 12 2015, showing both that the current WWB continues at moderate strength and that the daily SOI is positive (both because the pressure at Darwin is high and the pressure over Tahiti is slight low.  Note, the Long Paddock Station Daily SOI for May 12 2015 was: -35.10)

The second attached image (and following extract) issued today by Cyclocane shows tropical storm Dolphin strengthening and tracking due west following the 10N latitude line where it will continue to maintain a moderate WWB for several days as indicated by the third & fourth images issued today by the U of Albany  for the 5S-5N 850 hPa and the 200 hPa, wind anom forecasts, respectively, from May 12 to 19 2015.  Furthermore, the U of Albany images hint that beginning around May 18 the El Nino pattern for the Walker Cell may be strengthening.

Extract from Cyclocane for May 12 2015: " WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z, TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #637 on: May 12, 2015, 06:11:06 PM »
The two attached MJO forecast from May 12 to 26 2015, for the GFS ensemble and the NCPE, respectively, once again show the MJO activity picking up near 140E to 155E sometime around May 17 to 19; which appears to correspond to the bullish U of Albany 5S-5N 850 hPa wind anom forecast in this same timeframe.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #638 on: May 12, 2015, 07:18:53 PM »
The latest MEI update issued May 7 2015 (see the link below) adopts a "wait and see" attitude, so we will need to wait for the next MEI update to see if it projects a strong El Nino this year:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/


Edit: See the attached plot that compares our current El Nino through the end of April 2015 with other past weak (not strong) El Nino events.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #639 on: May 13, 2015, 03:24:19 AM »
Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -11.4:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #640 on: May 13, 2015, 07:34:42 PM »
The JISAO PDO has been issued for April and it has dropped down to +1.44 (see link & table below)

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

YEAR   JAN   FEB     MAR   APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG   SEP    OCT    NOV   DEC
2014   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44

Next, following Cyclocane forecast issued May 13 2015 shows that TS Dolphin is still contributing to a moderate WWB but is about to move north of 10N, which will reduce its impact on equatorial winds.

Extract from Cyclocane forecast: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121200Z, TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 157.2E, APPROXIMATELY 757 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS."

The first two images from the U of Albany 5S-5N forecasts for May 13 to 20 2015, for the 850 hPa and the 200 hPa, wind anomalies, respectively, are slightly less bullish than yesterday, possibly because the GFS Ensemble MJO forecast from May 13 to 27 2015 shown in the third attached image is also slightly less bullish for El Nino conditions.

The fourth attached image is the Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map for May 13 2015, which confirms a moderate WWB and slowly increasing atmospheric sea level pressure near Tahiti (Note the Long Paddock Station daily SOI for May 13 2015 was: -31.30).

In summary, the indications are still bullish for a strong El Nino by the Summer of 2015; but the indications are slightly less bullish than yesterday.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #641 on: May 13, 2015, 07:42:30 PM »
Just to emphasize that we are still in the "Spring Barrier" timeframe for ENSO forecasts, as well as the "wait and see" posture of the latest MEI forecast, the attached corrected NOAA (CPC) Nino 3.4 forecast for May 13 2015, has one of the most recent member runs forecasting that the current El Nino condition remains moderate through the boreal Fall, and never reach achieve strong conditions as forecast by the other ensemble member runs.
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wehappyfew

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #642 on: May 13, 2015, 10:48:49 PM »
Since ASLR has forgotten more than I will ever know about ENSO, I thought I could still make a small contribution by going back to the old threads and dredging up some of what ASLR may have actually forgotten, but we still might want to look at again...

like this chart from the 2014 El Nino thread:



The buildup of warm water volume continues.

Discussion points:

 - Warm water volume buildup triggers El Nino (with a lag of 7 months, on average), which in turn dissipates the heat to the atmosphere (and eventually to space).

 - The recent failed 2014 El Nino did not relieve the buildup of heat, so the fuel is still there, waiting for the match.

 - This buildup is the largest since 1997, so the amount of fuel is consistent with at least a large El Nino, and maybe a Super-size if the fuel continues to accumulate before being ignited.

 - The current pattern is somewhat similar to 2000-2002 and 1986-1987 ... a long buildup of heat before El Nino fires up.

 - The pattern is most similar to 1989-1991, which was cruelly snuffed out by Pinatubo before it could reach its full potential. And now we have a much smaller volcano in Chile to complement the similarity.

...

Thanks again to ASLR for bringing together all these enlightening data sources (even the ones he's forgotten for a while) and providing analyses to help us make sense of it all. It now seems almost certain we are headed for a new high GMST for 2015, and this pool of warm water could push 2016 even higher still.

I think we can go ahead and help out our denier friends start the next meme... "no warming since 2016!"


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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #643 on: May 13, 2015, 11:41:26 PM »
The attached image from tropicaltidbits.com shows the GFS 12z hindcast of MSLP anomalies at Darwin and Tahiti for today, May 13th. There is currently a VERY strong (1040 mb) high pressure system located just south of Australia. This strong high pressure system is expected to help keep SLP elevated at Darwin for the next several days as it moves slowly towards the east. SLP at Tahiti is currently near to slightly below normal and is expected to remain that way for the next several days. Daily SOI values should remain negative for at least the next 5-6 days, but in the strong negative category (-20 or below) for at least the next 3 to maybe 4 days. I suspect that the SOI 30 day avg will drop to -13 or -14 by this weekend. It's worth noting that the GFS model does call for the return of positive daily SOI values beyond 180 hr. Something to monitor in the coming days.

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #644 on: May 14, 2015, 12:17:01 AM »
Since ASLR has forgotten more than I will ever know about ENSO, I thought I could still make a small contribution by going back to the old threads and dredging up some of what ASLR may have actually forgotten, but we still might want to look at again...

like this chart from the 2014 El Nino thread:



The buildup of warm water volume continues.

Discussion points:

 - Warm water volume buildup triggers El Nino (with a lag of 7 months, on average), which in turn dissipates the heat to the atmosphere (and eventually to space).

 - The recent failed 2014 El Nino did not relieve the buildup of heat, so the fuel is still there, waiting for the match.

 - This buildup is the largest since 1997, so the amount of fuel is consistent with at least a large El Nino, and maybe a Super-size if the fuel continues to accumulate before being ignited.

 - The current pattern is somewhat similar to 2000-2002 and 1986-1987 ... a long buildup of heat before El Nino fires up.

 - The pattern is most similar to 1989-1991, which was cruelly snuffed out by Pinatubo before it could reach its full potential. And now we have a much smaller volcano in Chile to complement the similarity.

...

Thanks again to ASLR for bringing together all these enlightening data sources (even the ones he's forgotten for a while) and providing analyses to help us make sense of it all. It now seems almost certain we are headed for a new high GMST for 2015, and this pool of warm water could push 2016 even higher still.

I think we can go ahead and help out our denier friends start the next meme... "no warming since 2016!"

wehappyfew,

Thanks for reminding everyone about the Warm Water Volume (WWV); however, the reason that I stopped referring to it, is that the TAO data at the following link has not been updated in over a year and shows the same old plot that you provide (correct me if I am wrong).  If anyone has current data on WWV it would be good to cite.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/

Best regards,
ASLR
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #645 on: May 14, 2015, 12:43:19 AM »

wehappyfew,

Thanks for reminding everyone about the Warm Water Volume (WWV); however, the reason that I stopped referring to it, is that the TAO data at the following link has not been updated in over a year and shows the same old plot that you provide (correct me if I am wrong).  If anyone has current data on WWV it would be good to cite.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/

Best regards,
ASLR

No... I'm quite sure this is updated recently. I double-checked using the waybackmachine: got different graphs for July 2014, Oct 2014, March 2015, and the live site at NOAA. Each graph has a bit more data on it.

July 2014 from waybackmachine:


...................

compare to...

Live NOAA link:




AbruptSLR

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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #646 on: May 14, 2015, 12:55:08 AM »

No... I'm quite sure this is updated recently. I double-checked using the waybackmachine: got different graphs for July 2014, Oct 2014, March 2015, and the live site at NOAA. Each graph has a bit more data on it.


wehappyfew,

Thanks for the comparison plots.  You are clearly correct that the latest plot has more data than the 2014 plots (I believe that the plot changed so slowly last year that I stopped checking it).  It will be great to watch this plot if we get a strong El Nino event in 2015, to see if the WWV exceeds what happened during the 97-98 El Nino.

Best regards,
ASLR
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #647 on: May 14, 2015, 12:59:38 AM »
This is all over my head, but google gave a 2015 reference and graph to WWV on page 50 of this slideshow: Global Ocean Monitoring: Recent Evolution, Current Status, and Predictions … May 8, 2015.  I note there is one of these reports each month or so (change URL's last digits from "05" to "03", etc.)
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #648 on: May 14, 2015, 01:17:35 AM »
For those who want a copy of the image that Tor pointed to (in Reply #649), I provide it here (& I note that deep octopus is probably best qualified to comment on such a phase diagram):
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Re: 2015 El Niño?
« Reply #649 on: May 14, 2015, 02:30:04 AM »
First link is to many atmospheric and oceanic time series. With links to more interesting places.  :) Enjoy.
First attachment are the cool tongue/warm pool index/ENSO-Modoki indices.  Anyone else wonder if the shear magnitude of, perhaps record warmth in the warm pool isn't allowing for the proper temperature gradient to promote full coupling with the atmosphere?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing.shtml

Second attachment is the daily mean SST for May11, 1997
Third attachment is the daily mean SST for May11, 2015
It's nice the all important 28°C isotherm is highlighted. 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html
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