2015 El Niño?

[Sigmetnow]

@BMcNoldy: First light on #Dolores, the earliest *third* Cat4 hurricane on record in East Pacific. #tropics @UMiamiRSMAS [sat pic:] http://t.co/Cs1dg8aLrG

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/621308417144131584

[AbruptSLR]

The first attached image (which I was too busy to post yesterday) was issued yesterday by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -18.2:

The second attached image issued yesterday by the BoM shows that cloud cover near the Equatorial International Dateline is now increase (after a recent clear spell); which is conducive for the Walker Cell to possibly flip into an El Nino pattern.

The third attached image shows the Earth 250-hPa Wind Map for July 15 2015, showing that the MJO remains just east of the Equatorial International Dateline, but is a little bit weaker than yesterday.  If the MJO lingers in this area long enough, it could help to flip the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached image was issued by the BoM today and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -19.4:

[oren]

Is there a chart of the 90-day moving average SOI?

[AbruptSLR]

Is there a chart of the 90-day moving average SOI?

oren,
I don't know whether the BoM publishes a 90-day moving average SOI plot; however, the Long Paddock station does publish a table of daily, 30-day average SOI & 90-day average SOI, at the following link, and I provide the July 16 2015 values below for review (showing strong El Nino behavior across the board).
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Date                 Tahiti   Darwin   Daily**   30 day avg SOI   90 day avg SOI
16 Jul 2015   1011.29   1015.45   -31.40   -19.61                  -10.93

Next, as we haven't looked at NOAA's subsea temperature anom. (see first attached plot for July 12, 2015) nor the Eq. Upper-Ocean Heat Anom (see the second attached image issued today).  Both of these images show that the current EKW is strong and gaining strength.
Best,
ASLR

[AbruptSLR]

While my last post indicated that the ocean (the EKW) is building strength to support strengthening El Nino conditions; this post provides some support for the idea that the atmosphere (the Walker Cell) may finally be ready to flip (at least for a while) into an El Nino pattern.

The first image shows that NOAA's MJO forecast from July 16 to 30 2015, indicates that the MJO has lingered around the Eq. International Dateline for the past several days (which may, or may not, have been sufficient to flip the Walker Cell).  The second attached image of the Earth 250-hPa Wind Map for July 16 2015, shows that a very weak MJO remains at the Eq. International Dateline today.

The third and fourth attached images are from the University of Albany with forecasts from July 16 to 23 2015, for the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, wind anoms., respectively.  Both of which support the idea that the Walker Cell may flip into an El Nino pattern in the next few days.

[oren]

ALSR, thank you for the link. I was able to easily download the full SOI dataset.
Here are a couple of charts of the 90-Day moving average SOI, one going all the way back to 1992, the other one showing about 5 years. I wanted to understand visually how current conditions compare to past years. 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 1997-1998, 2002-2003, 2006-2007, 2009-2010 were considered El-Nino years, if I'm not mistaken.

[AbruptSLR]

What do you think of NOAA's MEI?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

Here are three images from the July 10 2015 MEI updates, showing that our current El Nino is trending towards becoming a Super El Nino.

[AbruptSLR]

Our coming strong (super?) El Nino will lead to increased drought & fires in the tropical rainforests (particularly in Indonesia); which will contribute directly to increased atmosphere CO₂ concentrations next year:

http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/el-nino-and-southeast-asia/

Extract: "It’s coming. Last week, researchers at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) raised the probability of a strong El Niño event this year to 85 percent, a warning sign to governments around the world to begin preparing not only for extreme weather, but for the accompanying, potentially widespread, economic impacts. Southeast Asia, as a tropical region heavily dependent on monsoonal agriculture, stands to be particularly impacted.
“Even without El Niño fire is here in Indonesia every year,” said Herry Purnomo, a Scientist focusing on smallholder and community forestry at the Bogor, Indonesia Center for International Forestry Research. “We are afraid [this coming year] fires will be much much bigger.”"

[Sigmetnow]

@climatesociety: #ElNino forecast is off the charts! Both dynam & stats models calling for stronger event than last month #IRIforecast http://t.co/tcQMJceM0M

https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/621701944931954688

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -20.0 (& likely the new plot will need a more negative vertical scale):

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached image the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -20.5:

[AbruptSLR]

While not wishing to appear to be too bullish, the first three figures from the University at Albany for the week from July 18 to 25 2015 for the 850-hPa ad 200-hPa Wind Anoms, and the rainfall rate, respectively; all indicated that for this coming weak the Walker Cell will be in a moderately weak El Nino pattern (which it has not been in for some time).

The fourth attached image shows that the most recent ensemble member runs for the corrected NOAA Nino 3.4 forecast are more bullish than previously; indicating that our current El Nino could be strong by August 2015:

[plinius]

As probably discussed before I would not use PDF-corrected CFS values. Their method is not really valid for such extreme cases. Stick with the pure model output, which at least honestly reflects the model results. Though of course that is even more bullish:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Let's hope it does not happen like that, but given that the last few months of model runs were predicting that event consistently, tells that hope for a moderate event is little. See e.g. this May:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201505/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

I'd also not say that the atmosphere has not been in El Nino pattern: We have had prevailing western wind anomalies for quite some time now, see slide 16:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
3 considerable west wind bursts since march, and some lingering westerly anomaly.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued today by the BoM and indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has dropped down to -21.0:

[JayW]

As probably discussed before I would not use PDF-corrected CFS values. Their method is not really valid for such extreme cases. Stick with the pure model output, which at least honestly reflects the model results. Though of course that is even more bullish:
http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

Let's hope it does not happen like that, but given that the last few months of model runs were predicting that event consistently, tells that hope for a moderate event is little. See e.g. this May:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201505/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

I'd also not say that the atmosphere has not been in El Nino pattern: We have had prevailing western wind anomalies for quite some time now, see slide 16:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
3 considerable west wind bursts since march, and some lingering westerly anomaly.

The CFSv2 output from the CPC is still bias corrected, for the raw model output I'd recommend the forecasts from Dr Kyle MacRitchie. 

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -20.1:

[Tor Bejnar]

It is probably good to see both versions 

[jai mitchell]

compare and contrast

[AbruptSLR]

As the following Nino data for the week centered on July 15 2015 (which is centered on week 29) indicates that Nino 3.4 was 1.7, by comparison with the plot that jai provided we are currently somewhere between the 82-83 and the 97-98 super El Nino events w.r.t. development patterns:


                     Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1
 24JUN2015     25.1 2.6     28.1 1.9     28.9 1.4     29.9 1.1
 01JUL2015     24.9 2.7     28.0 2.0     28.9 1.4     29.8 1.0
 08JUL2015     25.2 3.3     27.9 2.1     28.8 1.5     29.9 1.1
 15JUL2015     24.6 2.9     27.9 2.3     28.9 1.7     29.8 1.0

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, it looks like the SOI will be increasing for a while and the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -19.2:

[plinius]

@JayW: Not sure I would argue against a bias correction. The thing I find really troubling is their PDF-correction. Might be kind of ok for weak events, but for a strong event it is biased/breaks down.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Latest from the BOM
 
The 2015 El Niño continues to develop. Weakened (or reversed) trade winds have resulted in further warming over much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. All key ENSO ocean monitoring areas have been more than 1 °C above average for 10 successive weeks—two weeks longer than the record in 1997. The eastern tropical Pacific is now at or exceeding +2 °C. In the atmosphere, the past week has seen the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) drop to around −20, the lowest values of the event so far.
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate El Niño is likely to strengthen, and is expected to persist into early 2016. El Niño events typically peak during the late austral spring or early summer, and then weaken in the new year.
 
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[AbruptSLR]

The first to plots were issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 19 2015, for the Nino 3.4 and the IOD, respectively.  While the Nino 3.4 index is up to +1.59, this value is lower than NOAA's 1.7, and the IOD is down.  Furthermore, the third attached TAO sub-surface temp. anom. for July 20 2015 shows that a cool region of ocean is forming in the Western Equatorial Pacific, and the fourth attached image of NOAA's Eq. Pac. Upper Ocean Heat Anom. circa July 21 2015 shows that while this index is currently increasing, it has not reached its March 2015 levels.  Thus, while it seems highly likely that our current event will turn into a strong El Nino (with a Nino 3.4 over +2.0), there is still some doubt as to whether it will develop into a super El Nino (with Nino 3.4 over +2.5):

[AbruptSLR]

The four attached images were all issued today by the BoM and respectively show the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices thru the week ending July 19 2015:

[AbruptSLR]

The attached images provide more evidence of my proposition that the Walker Cell may be flipping into a more stable El Nino pattern.  The first two images are from the University at Albany showing the 850-hPa and the 200-hPa wind anom forecasts from July 21 to 28 2015, respectively.  The third & fourth images are from the nullschool Earth wind forecasts for July 25, 2015 for the 850-hPa and the 250 hPa winds and mean sea level pressures, respectively.  Note that these El Nino friendly wind patterns are not associated with Tropical Storms, or WWBs.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -18.3:

[Tor Bejnar]

Somewhere between 2 and 3.1?

[Sleepy]

Tor, look at the climate model summary from last week at BoM.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in July) indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to persist at above El Niño thresholds through until the end of 2015. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for October is just above +2.6 °C, increasing to +2.7 °C by December. Since the start of the satellite era of ocean observations in the late 1970's, NINO3.4 values this large have only been observed during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model values range between +2.2 °C and +3.4 °C for December; all well above the El Niño threshold and indicative of a substantial El Niño.

ECMWF Nino34 attached.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot was issued today by the BoM & indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -17.5:

[AbruptSLR]

Tor, look at the climate model summary from last week at BoM.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Ocean

The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in July) indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to persist at above El Niño thresholds through until the end of 2015. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for October is just above +2.6 °C, increasing to +2.7 °C by December. Since the start of the satellite era of ocean observations in the late 1970's, NINO3.4 values this large have only been observed during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model values range between +2.2 °C and +3.4 °C for December; all well above the El Niño threshold and indicative of a substantial El Niño.

ECMWF Nino34 attached.

First, to add some background to Sleepy's post, I provide the first three images of the BoM's Nino 3.4 Model Summaries for August, October & December, 2015, respectively.

Second, I provide the fourth attached image of the Albany 5S-5N 850-hPa Wind Anom forecast from July 23 to 30 2015, showing that the Walker Cell should remain in an El Nino pattern through this period.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -17.3:

[Sigmetnow]

No two El Niños are the same.

How This El Niño Is And Isn’t Like 1997
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/comparing-el-nino-to-1997-19278

[Sleepy]

NOAA seems to have removed that picture with the following quote:

Note: this post was modified from its original to eliminate any confusion between the impacts of the current El Niño conditions and those of the 1997-1998 event.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1726&MediaTypeID=1

[Sigmetnow]

NOAA seems to have removed that picture with the following quote:

Note: this post was modified from its original to eliminate any confusion between the impacts of the current El Niño conditions and those of the 1997-1998 event.

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/MediaDetail2.php?MediaID=1726&MediaTypeID=1

So I'm glad I saved the original image!   

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -17.1:

[AbruptSLR]

The two attached images of nullschool forecast maps of 850-hPa & 250-hPa (both with MSLP), respectively, for July 28 2015, which show moderate Walker Cell El Nino behavior:

[Csnavywx]

Nice TC/TD couplet on the last few runs as well. Both the EC and GFS strengthen it considerably and make it into a strong WWB. EC also suggests that the MJO might sneak back in and join the party in phase 7 in about 7-10 days. Regardless of that, it should be more than enough to send another EKW eastward to reinforce the previous two.

It's getting more likely that we see a super Nino, especially since the warm pool has now migrated significantly and is centered around 160W according to TAO buoy data. This should help further increase the chances of additional WWBs and trade-disrupting convection further east.

[AbruptSLR]

Per the attached plot issued today by the BoM, the 30-day moving average SOI has moved down to -15.4:

[deep octopus]

Good morning all. Getting back into the rhythm of things here after taking a hiatus, below are the weekly SST values for each of the Niño regions. All regional anomalies showed either a hold or decline in the last week. In the Niño 3.4 region, it seems that we are straddling along moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA
 17JUN2015     25.4 2.7     28.2 1.8     29.0 1.4     29.9 1.1
 24JUN2015     25.1 2.6     28.1 1.9     28.9 1.4     29.9 1.1
 01JUL2015     24.9 2.7     28.0 2.0     28.9 1.4     29.8 1.0
 08JUL2015     25.2 3.3     27.9 2.1     28.8 1.5     29.9 1.1
 15JUL2015     24.6 2.9     27.9 2.3     28.9 1.7     29.8 1.0
 22JUL2015     23.7 2.3     27.6 2.1     28.8 1.6     29.8 1.0

Also attached is the SST anomaly chart for July 27 as posted by OSPO.

[AbruptSLR]

Welcome back DO, we all missed you, now on to ENSO tracking business:

The University of Colorado has updated both their change in global mean sea level trend line and their correlation of the detrended GMSL time series vs the MEI time series (see attached plots, respectively) through July 23 2015.  As it seems likely to me that we are very likely headed towards a super El Nino event in 2015-2016 comparable to the 97-98 event; it seems to me that not only is the El Nino leading to record high sea levels but also that SLR contributions from the ice sheets are accelerating:

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/

[Csnavywx]

The forecasted WWB is now underway. It looks to last about another 7-10 days, peaking in about 3-5 days, easily with the same strength as the March and early July events, dependent upon how the two TCs strengthen. There's certainly a tendency to underestimate TC strength lately, especially with the very high OHC levels.

[AbruptSLR]

In my mind whether the current WWB (see the first attached Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map for July 27 2015) is due to TC activity, or due to a shift in the Walker Cell pattern, of open to discussion.

Per the following Cyclocane forecast (see also the second attached cloud cover satellite image), there currently is no TC nor any TD activity in either the  Northwest, or the Southwest, Pacific; which leads me to suspect that the current WWB (that Csnavywx discussed) may be associated with a change in the Walker Cell pattern near the Equatorial Western Pacific:

Extract: "Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 260000Z, TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 129.2E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH OF SASEBO, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 260300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//"

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has moved up to -14.7:

[James Lovejoy]

Summery of NOAA's latest el Nino report.  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

1)  The weekly SST departure for all regions has come down slightly.
2)  Central and Eastern Pacific 0-300 m upper ocean Anomalies continue to climb.
3)  The chances of el nino continuing is above 90% through F 2016.

See the link above for more detail.

[AbruptSLR]

The accompanying four plots were all issued today by the BoM thru the end of the week ending July 26 2015, indicating that the Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices, respectively, all fluctuated downward this last week (in accord with NOAA's findings)

[AbruptSLR]

The first two plots issued today by the BoM thru the week ending July 26 2015 both indicate that the Nino 3.4 and the IOD are both down this week.

The third attached image of the Earth Surface Wind and MSLP Map for July 28 2015, shows both that the WWB continues today, and that the daily SOI today is negative.

The fourth attached image from Cyclocane shows that in the Western Equatorial Pacific there are no TCs or TDs with the current 24-hour forecast window, indicating that the current WWB may be associate with a change in the Walker Cell pattern; which if true would imply that the atmosphere should continue to reinforce the ocean and possibly/probably drive our current El Nino into a super category.

[AbruptSLR]

The attached plot issued today by the BoM indicates that the 30-day moving average SOI has drifted up to -14.5:

[Csnavywx]

It looks as if the JTWC has picked up on the northern disturbance in its outlooks. I would suspect the southern one to follow suit in a couple of days, as guidance shows that one eventually developing at least a decent low level circulation center worthy of further watching.

The interesting thing, as ASLR noted, is that the MJO isn't contributing this time. There may be some contribution from a weak equatorial rossby wave there, but the base state seems to be flipping to one more dominated by Bjerknes feedback, where background conditions become much more favorable to continued WWB generation. TAO buoys now show the centroid of the warm pool has quickly migrated to about 160W.

[AbruptSLR]

I always appreciate WWB input from TCs & TDs (especially when they are within 10 degrees of the equator); however, for those who want to see a brief discussion of the influence of the Walker Cell and Bjerknes feedback, you will find one at the following link:

http://www.climate.be/textbook/chapter5_node4.xml