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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #100 on: November 23, 2022, 02:20:24 PM »

It is now cheaper to install a new solar plant than to continue to operate an existing fossil fuel plant.  That can’t be ignored for much longer.


An existing fossil fuel plant runs at night.  Necessitating additional solutions.  The Solar/Wind farm in Morocco being cable fed to the UK has only 5 hours of the day, in summer, without full power.

Batteries….
And overbuilding.  The more solar you have, the fewer batteries you need.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #101 on: November 23, 2022, 02:22:35 PM »
New Technology Adoption curves.  Over 15 years.

It’s not just for “gadgets.”

⬇️ Click to enhance.
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NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #102 on: November 23, 2022, 02:48:42 PM »

It is now cheaper to install a new solar plant than to continue to operate an existing fossil fuel plant.  That can’t be ignored for much longer.


An existing fossil fuel plant runs at night.  Necessitating additional solutions.  The Solar/Wind farm in Morocco being cable fed to the UK has only 5 hours of the day, in summer, without full power.

Batteries….
And overbuilding.  The more solar you have, the fewer batteries you need.

If you said Wind I'd say yes. When the sun goes down no amount of overbuilding will produce power.  Whereas there is always wind somewhere unless you live on a tiny island that is becalmed.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #103 on: November 23, 2022, 02:57:36 PM »
Germany.  Totally powered by renewables.
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kassy

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #104 on: November 23, 2022, 04:37:05 PM »
New Technology Adoption curves.  Over 15 years.

It’s not just for “gadgets.”

Both coal type and GMO plants can be changed easily. This is still different then building out the grid.
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NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #105 on: November 23, 2022, 04:51:52 PM »
Yes it all looks good at first look at the numbers .  Although the UK expects to deliver 790Twh by 2050 and UK consumption is about half of Germany normally.

Battery capacity is a bit of a question though, especially at the "lowest cost".  Tesla megapack current prices are $328 per Kwh.  At 6Twh or 3Twh that is $2tn or $1tn respectively.

Guess they are going to use different batteries than Tesla because the German economy produced under €900bn in tax revenues in 2021.

Also these batteries have a 15-20 year lifespan.  Meaning signing up to a constant extreme spend without battery prices falling dramatically.  Like by an order of magnitude.  Even then it is committing to $5bn or $10bn per year over a 20 year timeline.

It doesn't sound very feasible even at $32 per kw/h and nobody is talking about that or anything near it.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #106 on: November 23, 2022, 05:49:02 PM »
New Technology Adoption curves.  Over 15 years.

It’s not just for “gadgets.”

Both coal type and GMO plants can be changed easily. This is still different then building out the grid.

Remember, it will not be a one-for-one grid transition.  Distributed, off-the-grid energy will supply a large portion of the world’s energy needs. 
 
Significant change,  not just ‘Faster horses.’
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oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #107 on: November 23, 2022, 06:41:46 PM »
New Technology Adoption curves.  Over 15 years.

It’s not just for “gadgets.”

⬇️ Click to enhance.
USA? Or global?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #108 on: November 23, 2022, 07:35:20 PM »
New Technology Adoption curves.  Over 15 years.

It’s not just for “gadgets.”

⬇️ Click to enhance.
USA? Or global?

Unsure. I’d have to go back to the video to see if he says which.
Since this was made as a quick point, it’s quite possible he doesn’t say. ;)

EDIT:
Found it. At 10:45 in Part 1.  “We have uncovered dozens of cases in various industries throughout time where disruption has happened over 15 years.”
« Last Edit: November 23, 2022, 07:46:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #109 on: November 23, 2022, 08:11:23 PM »
The answer, I'm afraid, is USA only, see images and link below. Even assuming these charts are accurate, they do not make me optimistic at all. The global rate of adoption is simply too slow, while the demands (for vehicles, for electricity, for food etc.) are still rising, which makes the seemingly fast growth rate achieved not even put a dent in global stock of the current polluting alternatives.
EV sales rising fast, ICE car stock not shrinking.
Wind + Solar energy production rising fast, nearly tripled in last 6 years, but fossil fuel electricity still growing.
We do not have decades to wait for these curves to catch up globally as well as replace existing stock.






https://climatecrocks.com/2021/05/28/the-s-curve-why-im-optimistic-about-the-clean-transition/comment-page-1/

Quote
The S-Curve of technology advancement is explained in my new video, by Tony Seba and Jonathan Koomey, both energy experts.




NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #110 on: November 23, 2022, 09:58:51 PM »
The carrot and the stick seems to be the only way.  With consumer stuff the carrot is the WOW new features/performance etc.  The stick becomes "you want me to keep making all this old crap you're going to have to pay more for it".

In the EV world the carrot has been the subsidies.  But it is increasingly the stick now.  The EU enacted their 95g per km rule which forced manufacturers to swing to electric.  A couple of years of that and an even bigger stick, no new FF vehicles after 2035.

Consumers may not want to go EV or take the risk of EV but governments are now forcing them.  They can't say that it is impossible because the subsides have proved otherwise.

The problem is the rest of the world, exiting the 1800's technology and looking for the next step.  The incumbents are happy to provide, FF all the way.  They don't want to enact the laws they want to move, fast.

What is now left is the hard stuff and politicians are very bad at the hard stuff because voters don't like it.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

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kassy

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #111 on: November 23, 2022, 10:26:12 PM »
There is this other complication.

Many of the gadgets are convenient but many also get pushed. The phones were free with the subscription, or sort of or well hidden.

For the non consumer goods GMO got pushed because it benefits certain big players. The push in coal is part efficiency and maybe also efficiency in one places lowering the price for others to upgrade.

In our present situation we know well what we have to do but fossil fuels also equal money so the big exporters are stalling the talks. Some people make do with too much local coal and the EU now gets gas through shipping instead of pipelines because of reasons.

This is more complicated so the transition curve will be different. Those with the resources will try to max out. We are not working together on it.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #112 on: November 23, 2022, 11:58:55 PM »
We do not have decades to wait for these curves to catch up globally as well as replace existing stock. 

True.  But all signs from your charts suggest that we are still in the bottom, flat part of the adoption “S” curve.  The steep exponential rise should take us close to 100% in only ten to fifteen years.
 
I know, it doesn’t seem like it will happen, right now.  But that’s the same way most people thought about most adoptions, in the beginning.  Who needs that expensive smart phone?  Turns out, almost all of us did, and other manufacturers jumped in to make them.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #113 on: November 24, 2022, 12:04:42 AM »
Re: batteries

Large stationary batteries dont need to be lithium; i have a feeling they will not. Flow batteries are an obvious choice as are sodium-sulfur. I am aware of at least two NaS  installs operating at small scale, one in Japan and and AEP one in the midwest of the USA. There are others. There are other technologies, but i suspect flow batteries will win.

sidd

NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #114 on: November 24, 2022, 12:21:07 AM »
but i suspect flow batteries will win.

So do I.
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oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #115 on: November 24, 2022, 12:49:26 PM »
We do not have decades to wait for these curves to catch up globally as well as replace existing stock. 

True.  But all signs from your charts suggest that we are still in the bottom, flat part of the adoption “S” curve.  The steep exponential rise should take us close to 100% in only ten to fifteen years.
 
I know, it doesn’t seem like it will happen, right now.  But that’s the same way most people thought about most adoptions, in the beginning.  Who needs that expensive smart phone?  Turns out, almost all of us did, and other manufacturers jumped in to make them.

Here is another chart, this time just for the US, from a different thread.
I think your optimism is wholly unjustified, the rate is much too slow and the vertical part of the promised S-curve is near-fantasy, but let's wait a few years and see.


etienne

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #116 on: November 24, 2022, 02:03:00 PM »
Just for fun, some extracts of a document by Emeritus Professor Stuart B. Hill, Foundation Chair of Social Ecology, Western Sydney University

https://www.stuartbhill.com/index.php/ten-mistakes

These are common mistakes
Quote
1. Getting the usual ‘experts’ (mostly older males) together to talk & plan 
- always leads to tinkering with existing (flawed) plans – [‘rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic’] 
- excludes most, including those affected by such plans & their fresh ideas
[...]

3. Getting stuck in activities ‘pathologically’ designed to postpone (feared) change 
- particularly measuring problems (‘monitoring our extinction’) 
- endless over-collection of data (often ‘justified’ by arguments for ‘evidence-based [vs. responsible] approaches’) 
- hearings, committee meetings, report-writing, etc [appointment to such a committee may be strategy to limit one’s influence]
- most such preoccupations have NO follow-through, & usually only lead to more of the same 
[...]

4. Trying to solve problems within the disciplines or areas responsible for creating them; or with multidisciplinary teams of selected experts/authorities from favoured disciplines, with others excluded
[...]

6. Planning ‘Olympic/mega-scale’, heroic initiatives (from hearings to projects; talk to action) with no follow-through or provision for ongoing support (this needs to be more than just funding) 
- these invariably only reach the analysis, planning & preliminary stages; & then are abandoned 
- most have unforseen numerous long-term & widespread harmful side-effects (personal, social, ecological, etc)
[...]

7. Over-focus on knowledge & data, & neglect of wisdom & experience (most ‘wisdom’ cannot be supported by data; it involves working with the ‘unknown’ – most of what is – not just the limited ‘known’ –  often in ways that rely on intuition, ‘right brain’ & gut feelings, etc)
[...]

9. Homogenisation tendencies 
- these tend to result in construction of currently favoured ‘norms’ (for people, structures, processes, etc), 
- failure to consider diversity & 'alternatives'
- creation of in-groups & out-groups 
- also, inclusion, exclusion & blaming 
- failure to benefit from the creativity that resides at the margins & in the borderlands of society 
[...]

10. Neglect of the arts, or only token involvement 
- over-focus on economic (not human) grwoth, the sciences, technologies, business, politics, the professions, the media, & the other major powerful institutions within our society 
- as a result, the arts are poorly supported, regarded as a luxury or optional extra, an afterthought, or even irrelevant 



Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #117 on: November 24, 2022, 03:39:12 PM »
We do not have decades to wait for these curves to catch up globally as well as replace existing stock. 

True.  But all signs from your charts suggest that we are still in the bottom, flat part of the adoption “S” curve.  The steep exponential rise should take us close to 100% in only ten to fifteen years.
 
I know, it doesn’t seem like it will happen, right now.  But that’s the same way most people thought about most adoptions, in the beginning.  Who needs that expensive smart phone?  Turns out, almost all of us did, and other manufacturers jumped in to make them.

I think your optimism is wholly unjustified, the rate is much too slow and the vertical part of the promised S-curve is near-fantasy, but let's wait a few years and see.

That’s the thing about adoption “S” curves.  A few years can make a LOT of difference.
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NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #118 on: November 24, 2022, 03:51:58 PM »
True but until you are curving off towards the top of the S you have no idea where you are in the curve or how long it will take.

It could take 2 years or 20 years.  Right now we just don't know.  We know Tesla will push 20%.  We know that the EU and the UK will push 2035.  We know China is also doing this.  But the rest of the world have a say and they are not so advanced in EV.

Great to be positive and have confidence.  But this one is not quite as easy as the others.  Especially outside the EV space which is going well.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #119 on: November 24, 2022, 04:17:51 PM »
We do not have decades to wait for these curves to catch up globally as well as replace existing stock. 

True.  But all signs from your charts suggest that we are still in the bottom, flat part of the adoption “S” curve.  The steep exponential rise should take us close to 100% in only ten to fifteen years.
 
I know, it doesn’t seem like it will happen, right now.  But that’s the same way most people thought about most adoptions, in the beginning.  Who needs that expensive smart phone?  Turns out, almost all of us did, and other manufacturers jumped in to make them.

I think your optimism is wholly unjustified, the rate is much too slow and the vertical part of the promised S-curve is near-fantasy, but let's wait a few years and see.

That’s the thing about adoption “S” curves.  A few years can make a LOT of difference.

 
MORE:
 
Oren, you’ve shown us the past, up to the present.  So, what is your prediction? 

Continual sluggish growth, with no new industry forming to accelerate the availability of clean tech, even as the world’s situation becomes more dire? 
 
Perhaps a bit faster growth, occurring only after a decade or two of relative inaction?
 
Total collapse, because we didn’t act in time?

 
If the adoption “S” curve is a fantasy, what do you see as a realistic take?
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oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #120 on: November 24, 2022, 06:32:50 PM »
Oren, you’ve shown us the past, up to the present.  So, what is your prediction? 

Continual sluggish growth, with no new industry forming to accelerate the availability of clean tech, even as the world’s situation becomes more dire? 
Perhaps a bit faster growth, occurring only after a decade or two of relative inaction?
Total collapse, because we didn’t act in time?

If the adoption “S” curve is a fantasy, what do you see as a realistic take?

The following discussion is for OECD, India and China. I would assume the global problem is bigger and in worse shape, but lack the data. And the discussion is for electricity only, and does not cover any of the other sectors causing GHG emissions and various other forms of pollution.
From Gero's charts above, electricity production/demand has grown by ~300k GWh over the last 6.7 years, of which ~150k came from wind+solar growth, ~100k came from fossil fuels growth and the rest I guess from nuclear+hydro. Note I am just eyeballing the charts.
Overall demand growth is ~45k Gwh/year, and I do not expect it to stop, as global population is growing, affluence is growing, and I expect a replacement cycle of part of the global ICE fleet to EVs. I will assume overall growth rate stays stable. Add a serious S-Curve in EVs and/or heat pumps, and electricity needs will grow even faster.
Total fossil fuel production is currently at ~1050k Gwh/year.
Wind+solar growth has been above linear, with the last two years averaging ~30k/year. I would hazard a guess that the rate of addition will rise over the coming decade to 40k, 50k and even 60k GWh/year, but will not reach 100k or 200k/year in the style of a vertical part of an S-curve.
I will assume hydro+nuclear to grow by 10k GWh/year, this is probably quite optimistic.

We need to grow renewables fast enough to offset the 1050k fossil fuel segment, plus provide the overall growth of 45k/year. In 2033, 10 years from now, we will need zero-carbon production to grow by a total of 1500k GWh (1050+10*45) to do away with fossil fuels entirely for electricity production.
Assume hydro+nuclear growth provide 100k of this requirement.
This means wind+solar need to grow by 1400k over 10 years, very unrealistic. I expect cumulative growth to be ~400-500k, far short of a 2033 goal.

In 2040, 17 years from now, we will need zero-carbon growth of ~1815 (1050+17*45).
Hydro+nuclear provide 170k of the needed growth.
Wind+solar need to provide a growth of 1685k, nearly 100k Gwh/year, in order to do away with fossil fuel electricity production by 2040. Still unrealistic imho. I expect cumulative growth to be ~1000k, still leaving nearly 700k GWh of fossil fuel production by 2040, two thirds of current production.

Catch up point, even with optimistic assumptions, will probably be by 2050-2060. IMHO, too late, but it is what it is.
If I have time I will try to get the accurate raw data (Gero can you supply your file? And are there any global numbers available?) and provide some charts, as the text above can be quite difficult to read, and possibly contains errors.

Again note this is just for electricity production, a sector where we already have a well-known cost-effective and feasible technological solution, and just for OECD+China+India, which does not include most of the world's population growth regions. So the global electricity problem will be worse - and the global emissions problem much worse.

Sig - what is your own prediction? Would you care to provide some numbers as well, at least for the electricity sector?


gerontocrat

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #121 on: November 24, 2022, 10:10:10 PM »
Oren, the data I use is from the IEA.
They used to provide an Excel  file with a super table month by month and country by country. That stopped last year sometime.

Now they provide a flat .csv file month by month for each country (extract attached). It is currently 125,00 rows long. But at least it was with the same number of rows for each country each month, and there are summaries for OECD, IEA, Europe etc. A fairly simple algoritm meant I could reconstruct the table they used to provide.

But not now. E.g. If a country does not have nuclear electricity then instead of a row with zero in it, it is excluded, i.e. the number of rows is one less. So I have to have a special section for each country I want to look at. My file is a complex file.

So extracting data for my file with its tables and graphs is a bummer.
To add to the problem, I abandoned Excel for Libre Office (basically Lotus 1-2-3 brought back from the dead. If you open it with Excel then the numbers & equations are probably OK. The Graphs probably will not work.

I will send you a PM with my email address. Send me an email and I will reply with the files.For some reason or other ASIF messages won't let me upload files on a message. LibreOffice is dead easy to use for an Excel user (though the gaphs bit works a bit differently).

A better idea?
ANNUAL Data on global numbers with lots of country detail can be found at BP's
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html.
You can download an Excel file that has everything, - totals, by country, by groupings by fuel type. (see attached)

The report can be downloaded as a pdf.
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2022-full-report.pdf

ps: The S curve should work. The fossil fuel industry have successfully so far blocked the change from potential to reality. So we are stuck with AGW +1.5 a certainty and +2.0 on life support. My country, the UK is now currently one of the worst offenders after having been a leader .
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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crandles

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #122 on: November 25, 2022, 01:40:30 AM »
https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/866313289306963969

Looks like the s curve has started but you can't see it yet if the scale chosen is to show ff on same scale?

oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #123 on: November 25, 2022, 07:52:10 AM »
Thanks a lot Gero, time permitting I will start with the BP data first. The IEA data sounds like a full-blown nightmare, but if I find even more time available I may take up your offer and send for the file.

NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #124 on: November 25, 2022, 01:36:49 PM »
Gero, oren, I believe that sometimes you can get too caught up in spreadsheets.

It should be possible to import the spreadsheet into a database using field headers from the excel rows.  Then export the data for each country back out again to csv or excel.

Because you use the first column as field names and the following columns as table rows the database puts each spreadsheet row in the correct field.

When you export from the data as again, the missing rows will be recreated with blank values allowing the charts all to work.

I haven't done this in decades so not sure quite how easy it is today. Just a suggestion.  I found almost impossible things In Excel quite easy in the database world.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #125 on: November 25, 2022, 03:49:10 PM »
Sig - what is your own prediction? Would you care to provide some numbers as well, at least for the electricity sector?

Oren, thanks for your reply.
It’s easy (or, OK, not so easy ;) ) to look backwards and get data on what has happened in the past.  But as the plethora of adoption “S” curves show, I believe the past may be no reflection of what the future holds for the transformation of electrical generation.

Estimates of future power needs must take into account the energy being wasted today by the inefficiency of fossil fuel as a source.  This amount of wastage will not need to be replaced, and so can be subtracted from future needs.  The energy needed to extract, refine, transport and burn fossil fuels (and to deal with their emissions) will also be eliminated.

The past does not take into account the future increase in efficiency and lower cost of the electricity generation system: solar, wind and batteries; distributed and virtual power plants; new construction mandated to be not just energy neutral, but energy positive.  The progression:  easier, cheaper, faster.

It will not take decades for the people who pay the bills to recognize that building new solar plants is already less expensive than continuing to operate an existing fossil fuel plant.

Then, there is the increasing energy efficiency of EVs and other electricity users.  Less electricity will be needed than would be assumed by simply multiplying the total number of vehicles existing today times the efficiency of today’s EVs.  Increased use of ridesharing and robotaxis will make the need and added expense and complication of owning one’s own vehicle unnecessary — so, fewer vehicles will be needed, and the ones being used will be used more efficiently due to near-full-day use, plus AI scheduling, more remote work, etc.

The more batteries installed, the less solar and wind is needed.  And vice versa.

Tesla has most certainly run the numbers, for years now.  They say:
Quote
… to transition to sustainable energy, our calculation for both stationary and vehicles is 300,000 to 400,000 gigawatt hours or 300 to 400 terawatt hours [of batteries/storage].
 
Quote
I think probably on this earnings call, we’re not ready to go into financial details of what it will take to get there. But what we are seeing is practical improvements as we redesign the whole supply chain and all of the elements that go into battery cell. We’re figuring out dramatic efficiencies. And I think net result would be that the capital required to achieve that level of output will be much less than what people think.

There are many reasons to believe the transition to sustainable energy will be faster, easier, and cheaper than what it looks like today.  Which is not to say it will magically happen overnight!  There’s a lot of hard work ahead.
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oren

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #126 on: November 25, 2022, 04:58:01 PM »
Sig, thanks for the response but I am really looking for actual numbers, of course they will be guesstimates but at least they force people who make predictions to provide some kind of ballpark, and can serve as discussion points when years from now we look at what actually does happen.
What will be the total electricity demand (global, or OECD+China+India) in 2040 (or year of your choise), compared to today, in TWh (or GWh) annually (or monthly)? Lower? Same? High? By how much?
What will be the share of wind+solar out of this total in 2040? Hydro+nuclear?

Take the numbers I provided above as a basis. 2515 GWh on a monthly basis for OECD+China+india (current monthly total + 17*45). 1250 GWh from wind+solar (current+1000), 620 GWh hydro+nuclear (current+17*10), 645 GWh from fossil fuels. All numbers will be improved or changed when I can make a better calculation.
So, which of these numbers do you think significantly wrong? And if so, by how much? State your opinion in numbers and we will have achieved some progress on what we agree and disagree on.

NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #127 on: November 25, 2022, 05:01:44 PM »
In an ideal world this is the path we should take.  However in a world regulated by governments to make it look like they are caring about the people, things can suddenly grind very slowly indeed.

Certainly electrification and reduction in personal vehicles will have a net impact on energy.  With the most expensive energy solutions exiting fastest.  But with a 25 year refurbishment path and slow growing uptake of renewables, this S curve may take just a little longer.

Barring very sudden changes in storage cost and availability or some other dramatic change in the way energy is both generated and transmitted, it is hard for this kind of fixed infrastructure to change quickly.

Examples of sudden change in technology is a prior impossible transmission of power through the air allowing power stations to be anywhere and consumers still get their power from local collection points.  Doesn't seem very possible right now but that would be extremely disruptive tech and it would have a Very fast S curve.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #128 on: November 25, 2022, 05:46:58 PM »
Sig, thanks for the response but I am really looking for actual numbers, of course they will be guesstimates but at least they force people who make predictions to provide some kind of ballpark, and can serve as discussion points when years from now we look at what actually does happen.


State your opinion in numbers and we will have achieved some progress on what we agree and disagree on.

Sorry, but if people like Tony Seba, who has been working on documenting the energy transition for decades, doesn’t give numbers, I surely don’t feel I can.  Make all the estimates you wish.  But how can a spreadsheet incorporate the “disruption” effects from a dozen different sectors — sectors which may not seem relevant to energy supply and demand today?  The smart phone happened when computer chips and sensitive glass and software technology got to the point that made it possible. Trying to graph the energy future based mainly on historical data is as much or more of a guess as saying “disruptive transitions happen like ‘S’ curves.”
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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #129 on: November 25, 2022, 09:24:37 PM »
Gero, oren, I believe that sometimes you can get too caught up in spreadsheets.

It should be possible to import the spreadsheet into a database using field headers from the excel rows.  Then export the data for each country back out again to csv or excel.

Because you use the first column as field names and the following columns as table rows the database puts each spreadsheet row in the correct field.

When you export from the data as again, the missing rows will be recreated with blank values allowing the charts all to work.

I haven't done this in decades so not sure quite how easy it is today. Just a suggestion.  I found almost impossible things In Excel quite easy in the database world.
You are quite right.

I'm 75. I stopped writing code in 1983 (IBM FFortran IV, IBM Pl/1, Burroughs (RIP) Cobol and Assembler)apart from a few simple macros in the late 80's using the simple to use tool in Lotus 1-2-3.
Then Excel took the market and made us use that heap of crap called Visual Basic.
But I did have two or three Accounting technicians who just loved putting my ideas into action.

If I was younger I would have learned Python and Gimp and had a nice database package.
But I am not.

This old dog prefers to wander around the the internet and elsewhere looking at Environment stuff and things going on that affect the environment we live in, such as the extent to which Big Biznis and especially the Oil & Gas majors dominate the political process in so many countries, of which the USA and the UK are perhaps the most advanced.

The experience in working for Governments and Parastatals in around 20 mostly developing countries (Asia Africa & Eastern Europe after the Soviet Union) led me to eventually throw in the towel. Too much knowledge is a dangerous thing. My pessimism on AGW and the pace of fossil fuel replacement is enhanced by that there are practical relatively easy solutions delayed and postponed again and again.

Coding is for the young.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

NeilT

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #130 on: November 25, 2022, 10:38:24 PM »
Coding is for the young.

Agreed, I'm a mere 61 and I decided that more than a decade ago.
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etienne

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #131 on: November 26, 2022, 07:48:29 AM »

[...]
My pessimism on AGW and the pace of fossil fuel replacement is enhanced by that there are practical relatively easy solutions delayed and postponed again and again.
[...]
I really agree, and this is why I posted extracts of the list of common mistakes by by Emeritus Professor Stuart B. Hill.

The ones that worries me the most are this one :
Quote
4. Trying to solve problems within the disciplines or areas responsible for creating them; or with multidisciplinary teams of selected experts/authorities from favoured disciplines, with others excluded

and this one :
Quote
1. Getting the usual ‘experts’ (mostly older males) together to talk & plan
- always leads to tinkering with existing (flawed) plans – [‘rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic’]
- excludes most, including those affected by such plans & their fresh ideas

It is exactly what happened with COVID and I feel is what is happening with AGW. Tony Seba has disruptive technologies in a BAU context, and the car industry is solving AGW with luxury EV.

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #132 on: November 26, 2022, 12:18:34 PM »
Actually Tesla is on a glide path to an affordable car for the masses.  The rest are mainly competing with Tesla.

After all Nissan tried the Leaf at mass market pricing.  They had to limit the numbers because it was not really profitable.  GM created the Bolt to go mass market and, again, it is not really profitable.  Forcing a move to more expensive vehicles. VW is going in a similar direction.

Tesla started out with expensive vehicles which are profitable  then relentlessly drive down costs and raise margin. When they hit sufficient volume that profits become exhorbitent, Tesla will bring in a smaller and cheaper vehicle, confident that they will continue to make a profit.

Those manufacturers who are innovating at a similar speed as Tesla will drive the S curve.  Those who do not will fold on the climb up the curve.

There are indicators along the way. A really big one is Tesla making the same profit as Toyota whilst making 1/8th of the vehicles.  Extrapolate that out and Tesla is going to make, at the very minimum, 4x Toyota profits at the same volume.

This may only be one Quarter and Toyota may have taken charges, but Toyota and the rest are taking "one off" charges almost every quarter as they try to pivot to face the EV threat.

The days of pushing out a hybrid that does little to resolve CO2 emissions whilst promising a bold new future with Hydrogen are firmly over.  BEV is here and people are rapidly beginning to realise they can have the bold new future right now.

The next question is what pressure is the move to EV going to put on existing power generating infrastructure and what solution to it is going to win?

Because that will give you a view into the other S curves and their drivers.

Unfortunately the destiny of the infrastructure changes are in the hands of the politicians and they have the worst track record of all.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #133 on: November 26, 2022, 06:04:39 PM »
When they hit sufficient volume that profits become exhorbitent, Tesla will bring in a smaller and cheaper vehicle, confident that they will continue to make a profit.

Tesla is already designing an autonomous robotaxi with no steering wheel or pedals that will reduce manufacturing cost by about 40%(?).  Other companies have already tried this, so we’ll see if Tesla will be the one to make it work at scale.
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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #134 on: November 28, 2022, 07:33:05 PM »
KiwiGriff posted Part 4 a while ago:
The Great Transformation [Part 4] - The #Disruption of #Food & #Agriculture - YouTube
➡️ https://youtu.be/g6gZHbfK8Vo&feature=youtu.be
Nov 15.  17 min.
 
Food transformation:  feeding and caring for more of the world without needing animals.
 
We used to obtain insulin from extracting it from the pancreas of dead animals. In 13 years, the industry changed to insulin created by yeast fermentation.
 
Only 3.3% of milk is the proteins (casein and whey). A new Remilk facility in Denmark:
Quote
“We're making dairy products that are identical to cow-milk products, with the same taste, texture, stretchiness, meltiness, with no cholesterol and no lactose, growth hormones or antibiotics."
 
"At the new facility Remilk will produce its proteins for use in products like cheese, yogurt, and ice cream, in volumes equivalent to that produced by 50,000 cows each year."
 
“We can be as cheap as animal protein by 2024.”
 
20 of these facilities could replace the entire million-cow dairy industry of Canada.  Using only 344 acres.

Various industries today use manufactured proteins in their products.  Only 2% of an Impossible Burger is heme protein. Over the next three to five years, expect disruption of ground beef, chicken nuggets.  By 2030, a whole steak; chicken, fish.

(But, yes, Bruce, you can still do your small-scale farm, if you still want to!)

===

And now Part 5 has dropped:

Nov 23, 2022.  9 min
The Great Transformation [Part 5] - Implications - YouTube


A disruptive change in eight sectors, covering energy, transportation and food, will come together to lead to a complete phase change.
Not one-for-one.  Not simple growth.  Not “a caterpillar with wings,” but the creation of a whole new system.

28 billion hectares of land will freed up by the elimination of food animals, and the grains needed to feed them — an area equal to China, the US and Australia combined.
“We are experiencing both amazing new possibilities and collapse of legacy industries and legacy industrial order.”
« Last Edit: November 28, 2022, 07:38:50 PM by Sigmetnow »
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etienne

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #135 on: November 29, 2022, 05:07:29 PM »
A great transformation that solves climate change and ends poverty sounds like a dream, or when a smart man lost his humility.
Peak oil was also expected to solve the problem of climate change, unfortunately, there still was a lot of coal and oil sands.

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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #136 on: November 29, 2022, 06:58:19 PM »
Not only plenty of coal and gas and oil, sands. .

Quote
As natural gas from shale becomes a global energy "game changer," oil and gas researchers are working to develop new technologies to produce natural gas from methane hydrate deposits. This research is important because methane hydrate deposits are believed to be a larger hydrocarbon resource than all of the world's oil, natural gas and coal resources combined. [1] If these deposits can be efficiently and economically developed, methane hydrate could become the next energy game changer.

https://geology.com/articles/methane-hydrates/

We need to avoid this.
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Re: Tony Seba - Disruptive Tech - Synthesis of Solar, Storage, EVs & AEVs
« Reply #137 on: January 09, 2024, 04:20:09 PM »
Major changes from 2024-2030: Brace for the impending upheaval, according to disruption guru Tony Seba
January 05, 2024
Quote
4 of 20
 
SECOND DOMESTICATION OF PLANTS AND ANIMALS: “We’re making with micro-organisms what we used to make with macro-organisms,” he said, citing how Precision Fermentation is much more efficient than livestock and animals in producing everything food, with 100 times efficiency in terms of land use.

“These five foundational sectors – food, energy, transport, information technology and materials–are all being disrupted at the same time. It’s happening in the 2020s and 30s. And it’s happening for economic reasons,” said Seba. “The world system is going to enter a big dis-equilibrium.” … 
https://gulfnews.com/photos/news/major-changes-from-2024-2030-brace-for-the-impending-upheaval-according-to-disruption-guru-tony-seba-1.1704468349143

20 brief notes, with slides or photos.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.