Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: 2014 El Nino?  (Read 798283 times)

deep octopus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 559
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: 2014 El Nino?
« Reply #2000 on: December 31, 2014, 03:51:29 PM »

So what do we make of this?

This will certainly be an interesting way to start off discussions in the new year. Since the eastern Pacific (Niño 3 region, for instance) is still in a fairly warm state, and the subsurface temperature profile is still jockeying to find some stability (though overall with some warm Kelvin waves rumbling through), I'm hesitant to see how La Niña fits into the picture. El Niño is likely undergoing a suspension, but it needn't result in an immediate flip to the other extreme. In a later tweet, he points out the developing high pressure ridging in western North America with the trough in eastern North America, which he alludes to as a "change of the guards" in the Pacific (i.e. from El Niño to La Niña.) Could someone stamp my ignorance and tell me why this change in the atmosphere isn't simply the tail wagging the dog (not necessarily a symptom of a changing Pacific state), or am I just unwittingly constructing a straw man out of Dr. Ventrice's point? I guess I would need to read the blog post he says will be available to understand more of his perspective on this.