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JimD

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Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« on: December 31, 2014, 05:27:57 PM »
I have been following viddaloo's and SATire's posts in the Money and Politics thread and then came across the below link.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/12/climate-change-triage-protect-money-people.html

Needless to say I agree with both viddaloo and SATire.   We did need to start 30 years ago and we do need to get going now.  No meaningful progress has been made to date so, while it would have been intelligent to get going in the past,  dwelling on the should of's and the could of's from that time gets us no where.  The time is now and letting the deniers and the trolls delay action is just adding an few more pills to the suicidal overdose. 

Now I do not agree with the implications and conclusions of the link above but one can read enough take downs of it in the comments to the article in the blog it is in.

The link and the discussion in the other thread bring the discussion around once again to the elephants in the room; population levels, carbon emissions, affluence, power, politics, human nature and the like.

I hate to keep reiterating the basic situation but I guess it is necessary.

1.  Serious overpopulation which is growing rapidly
2.  Seriously excess consumption
3.  Very high carbon emissions which are still growing (see 1 & 2 above)
4.  Power and Politics are owned by the 1% affluent and do mostly their bidding
5.  Human nature focuses decisions only on the near term and traditional threats
6.  Resource depletion is resulting in constantly lowering EROEI numbers
7.  Carrying capacity numbers are rapidly getting worse
8.  Severe Climate Change impacts are certain and ramping up now. 

One could, of course, go on adding to the above list for some time depending on how fine of an aggregation we wanted to describe or the level of complexity of interrelated problems.  Everything impacts everything and feedbacks are legion and many unclear and some unknown.

Seeing where we are now on a global basis, what we already know is going to get much worse, the highly likely additional feedbacks which will worsen the situation, etc, etc, I will just boldly state once again... collapse on a catastrophic level is certain in the medium term (30-40 years) if we do not change our course from the BAU black and green versions.

Now I think we will do nothing to change the direction of this gigantic ship of civilization as it has speed, momentum, incalculable mass and it is heading directly for the nearby rocks.

BUT...today I will be 'optimistic" and start a discussion to dovetail in with SATire's comments.  The time is NOW and Triage is in effect.  (Triage for the uninitiated is a battle field term for dealing with the wounded and it means that you abandon those who will die no matter what you do, you do not treat those who's wounds will not kill them and you concentrate all efforts on those who will live if you help them.)  If we actually did this we do still have the ability to dramatically lessen (not eliminate) the scale of civilizational collapse and untold suffering so why not investigate the scope of what triage actually requires.

Triage is in effect.

Who and what do we decide to let (or help) die, who do we ignore, and what requires immediate action?  Remember -  if you waste time and resources on the ones (or things) which will die anyway you will lose many of those who would have lived if you had chosen wisely. It is a tough job and everyone will hate you pretty much.

I'll start first.

1.  Since we already know where there is more fossil fuels than we can ever afford to burn we immediately cease all further efforts at exploration and discovery of new sources of oil.

2.  Following the theme of No 1 we immediately cease all deep water oil production, all oil production which has costs over 50$ a barrel.

3.  We shut down the Canadian Tar sands oil production.

4.  We cease all fracking operations globally (no 2 pretty much takes care of this but let us be specific.

5.  We do not allow any new coal operations to be started and implement a mandatory 10% per year reduction in global coal consumption.  In other words burning coal after 2024 will be a death sentence.

6.  There will be NO COMPENSATION to the owners of the capital who take losses in any of items 1-5. Period - triage means you let them die.  If you compensate them then something which could live dies instead.  Someone has to take one for the team and it is their turn to step up.

7.  Production of all luxury passenger vehicles will cease immediately (to include Teslas) as will production of all mid and large size SUV's.  Production of large pickups will be severely curtailed and purchase of same will in the future require absolute proof of need.  No nice to have's or occasionally needed will be accepted.  Needless to say we will cease production of recreational vehicles of all kinds - you want to get out?  Take a walk or go for a run.

8.  Ownership of existing luxury cars, mid-size SUV's and large pickup's will be phased out over a 5 year period.  Compensation will be given to those who trade these types of vehicles in during that time period for small fuel efficient vehicles on a prorated basis.  If you wait the whole 5 years to the final deadline to trade them in you get zero compensation.

8A.  Ownership of personal vehicles will be banned after 2030.  This gives sufficient time for reconfiguring housing, working and transportation networks.  Individual use of vehicles after that date will require proof of need, will be very expensive and will come from a common motor pool.

9.  Permits for new home construction in the US will mandate that all dwellings in towns or cities be multi-family types with a total square footage not to exceed 500 sq ft per bedroom (studies and dens count as bedrooms).  New single family homes will only be allowed for rural farming operations. 

10.  Existing homes above 5000 sq ft will be put on a schedule for dismantling and cannibalization for use in new construction and/or repair of proper sized housing.  There will be NO COMPENSATION for the above losses incurred by the owners - triage principals apply.

11.  All ocean going cruise lines will be immediately shut down and their ships cannibalized for proper more important purposes.  Once again - no compensation.  An exception to this will be ships converted to passenger traffic to move people across oceans as regular air plane passenger traffic will cease (see item 12).

12.  Airline travel will be restricted to the following uses; business (proof required and conventions do not count), attending funerals, what else?  No tourist travel or non-emergency travel allowed via air planes.  You want to visit someone get on a train or a boat.

13.  No cross-country driving in a vehicle for tourist reasons either (maybe a limit of 500 miles if I am generous).  Take a bus or train.

14.  Personally owned swimming pools will be banned and their removal verified (this is a personal bug - I live in AZ and in the Phoenix metro area there are near 200,000 swimming pools as well as privately owned man made lakes so people can live by the water).  You want to swim go to the YMCA as I do or to the city pool.

15....?

I am having too much fun I think.  It is someone else's turn.





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SATire

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2014, 05:53:18 PM »
You are so cool!

A quick addition from here, since party time is soon despite all the trouble:

15  Immediate stop of lignite burning - and coal later, as you mentioned.

16  Manufacturers of machines and goods must guarantee proper functionality for 5 years - increasing to >20 years until 2030. Any repair of low-quality parts must be done free of charge. Planned obsolescence or use of life-time limiting parts is a criminal act.

17  The (energy & ressources) efficiency of the best product in a category is minimum requirement 5 years later.

18  Buyers of things must explain before the purchase, how long they will use it and where to recycle it after use. Without proper proof of recycling a new product of the same category is not allowed.

A nice New Year!
 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2014, 06:13:10 PM »
Sure, guys.

Now tell us how we make those things happen.  You have a hidden army of super warriors you're going to bring to the fight?  Gulags for compulsive shoppers?

You're going to need a pretty strong dictatorship to bring all that off.  Perhaps model your new world government after Stalin's solution?

Can you take some of your goals (wonderful, some are) and work out practical ways they might be achieved?

SATire

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2014, 06:32:20 PM »
Sure, guys.

Now tell us how we make those things happen.  You have a hidden army of super warriors you're going to bring to the fight?  Gulags for compulsive shoppers?

You're going to need a pretty strong dictatorship to bring all that off.  Perhaps model your new world government after Stalin's solution?

Can you take some of your goals (wonderful, some are) and work out practical ways they might be achieved?
Not a big deal Bob and no need for Gulag/dictatorship or such. We put it into the EC regulations and in TTIP: Earth protection instead of investors protection. Such are just some helpful regulations and as long as people understand it, it is not a big thing. Better than collapse I guess. So please, let us spin this forward and not backwards.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2014, 07:04:57 PM »
The EU is ready to immediately ban lignite burning, to require buyers to declare how they will use a product and how they will recycle it, immediately stop the manufacture of luxury vehicles, etc.?

Sorry, your dog don't hunt...

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2014, 08:23:39 PM »
The following link discusses the conservative economist Irwin Stelzer's efforts to convince the radial right that a Carbon Fee & Dividend program would help the US Republican Party, would help with job growth, and would help fight climate change (hat tip to Sigmetnow).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/d-r-tucker/is-anyone-listening-to-ir_b_6396864.html

Other discussions about a Carbon Fee & Dividend program are discussed at:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1068.0.html

and (see the attached job growth projections for the following program):

http://climatecolab.org/web/guest/plans/-/plans/contestId/1300404/planId/2802

Also, James Hansen provides numerous discussions on the topic of a Carbon fee and Dividend plan including those in the following links:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/5f3j6rq78mfmr6a/FeeAndDividend.CliveEllsworth.July2014.pdf

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140724_Australia.pdf

I submit that the main reason that more progress is not being made on fighting climate change is because both the Left (demanding more regulations) and the Right (defending the fossil fuel industry) parties are spending so much time and effort fighting each other that they cannot act on what any sane person would do to safeguard the world against the risks of climate change.  In this regard, if a leading conservative US Republican (say Jeb Bush because he may be the next US President, and as he is Catholic he may listen to Pope Francis' call to fight climate change) were to stand-up against the Tea Party and support a Carbon Fee & Dividend program in the US, then this could force other countries to adopt similar programs in order to avoid the border adjusts within the program.  Therefore, it is plausible to believe that the world could make a serious fight against climate change within the next ten years.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2014, 09:24:24 PM »
I hope you realize that the Bush family fortune is largely tied up in oil.  And that the Saudi oil princes are family friends.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2014, 10:16:18 PM »
I hope you realize that the Bush family fortune is largely tied up in oil.  And that the Saudi oil princes are family friends.

I hope you realize that Richard Nixon played the China card; and I hope you realize that with crude oil at 49% of what it was six months ago the Saudi oil princes are already hurting under our current arrangement.  Plus my scenario does not require Jeb, anyone that can face down the Tea Party (to allow more reasonable Republicans to behave more rationally) will do.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2014, 11:40:13 PM »
The first link provides evidence that the Tea Party is in the pocket of the Koch brothers:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-zuesse/final-proof-the-tea-party_b_4136722.html

The second link provides evidence that John McCain is willing to fight the Tea Party, and he is likely going to run in 2016 (for re-election to the Senate), so if Jeb Bush doesn't have the stomach to support a Carbon Fee & Dividend bill, then maybe McCain has the guts to get the job done:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/12/john-mccain-arizona-tea-party-113849.html

Just saying  ;).
« Last Edit: December 31, 2014, 11:51:38 PM by AbruptSLR »
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― Leon C. Megginson

Bob Wallace

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #9 on: January 01, 2015, 12:46:55 AM »
I hope you realize that the Bush family fortune is largely tied up in oil.  And that the Saudi oil princes are family friends.

I hope you realize that Richard Nixon played the China card; and I hope you realize that with crude oil at 49% of what it was six months ago the Saudi oil princes are already hurting under our current arrangement.  Plus my scenario does not require Jeb, anyone that can face down the Tea Party (to allow more reasonable Republicans to behave more rationally) will do.

I have no idea how that applies to "President Jeb" working to reverse climate change.

"Bush has said that, during his tenure as Florida governor, although there were "some instances" of controversy, he "tried to act on my faith as best as I could""   Wiki

Grandpa Walnuts?  Man, you are tapping into deep, deep fantasy.

No one in the Republican Party is going to lead the way on climate change.  Their base would rip them to pieces.

viddaloo

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #10 on: January 01, 2015, 12:53:41 AM »
19. Complete and absolute ban on the use and production of fireworks. One–year prison sentences for people (and city councils) who still send rockets into the sky. Vegan food only for inmates!  ;D
[]

crandles

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2015, 01:06:31 PM »
20. Rules will oblige new networked devices such as modems and internet-connected televisions to switch themselves off when not in use.

umm., at least this one is plausible
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30643357
at least in EU
 ;)

jai mitchell

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2015, 04:53:10 PM »
1.  Implement an economic transformation program on scale but greater in scope with an increase in government spending equivalent to 1.5% of GNP on an annual basis.  This program will

a.  Change the production of all vehicles to pev
b.  Build out comprehensive public transportation networks
c.  Implement distributed energy generation (solar and micro wind) with distributed energy storage
d.  Implement resources/labor for the implementation of a comprehensive distributed food production/storage network
e.  implement a carbon tax and dividend on imports and fossil fuel consumption.
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Neven

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2015, 10:30:14 PM »
Some more wishful thinking:  ;)

21. A maximum of 500 grammes of meat per person per week. No more CAFO.
22. A ban on sugar.
23. A partial ban on grain-based processed foods.
24. If you want a third child: adopt it.

Quote
Permits for new home construction in the US will mandate that all dwellings in towns or cities be multi-family types with a total square footage not to exceed 500 sq ft per bedroom (studies and dens count as bedrooms).

My goodness, that's bigger than than the living room in our new house! 200 square feet is more than enough. Our bedrooms are 125 square feet (and we have a small 50 square feet walk-in closet).

300 square feet per person is more than enough. That means 1200 square feet for a family of four. Huge.
« Last Edit: January 01, 2015, 11:21:44 PM by Neven »
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JimD

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #14 on: January 02, 2015, 04:54:19 PM »
Some more wishful thinking:  ;)

.....

Quote
Permits for new home construction in the US will mandate that all dwellings in towns or cities be multi-family types with a total square footage not to exceed 500 sq ft per bedroom (studies and dens count as bedrooms).

My goodness, that's bigger than than the living room in our new house! 200 square feet is more than enough. Our bedrooms are 125 square feet (and we have a small 50 square feet walk-in closet).

300 square feet per person is more than enough. That means 1200 square feet for a family of four. Huge.

LOL  I thought of you when I wrote that.  I figured any smaller here in the US would result in civil war.  :)
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2015, 01:13:58 AM »
My wish list includes:

1.  Restrict construction in likely coastal flood areas

2.  Have policy makers adopt 80% confidence levels for environmental loadings

3.  Require FEMA (in the USA) to consider SLR in their inundation maps

4.  Require the National Flood Insurance Program (in the USA) to charge premiums that match market rates
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2015, 04:16:02 PM »
To add to my wish list:

1.  Per the following link, I hope that not only does the Catholic Church divest all of its fossil fuel assets, but I hope that all of the insurance companies, hedge funds, and derivative funds also divest themselves.

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/01/02/pope-francis-tip-balance-fossil-fuels/

2.  I hope that society learns that it can have jobs and a good lives without succumbing to the debilitating addictions of cheap fossil fuels, and in this I hope that sane people start identifying the fossil fuel industry as the equivalent of drug pushers and child molesters (which is exactly what they are).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2015, 04:23:19 PM »
Adding to my wish list:

1.  I wish that scientists would not yield primary responsibility for the radiative forcing scenarios that they use in their GCM & ESM projections to economists.

2.  I wish that scientist would decide to err on the side of greatest public safety rather than erring on the side of least drama.

3.  I wish that policymakers would stop telling economists (for use in their radiative forcing scenarios that they give to scientists) that they are going to control all types of anthropogenic radiative forcing sources, and then do nothing more than follow a BAU pathway.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2015, 11:58:49 PM »
As discussed in the linked article, I wish for an intelligent divestment strategy to pressure fossil fuel companies to leave most of their resources in the ground:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5ca02a4c-8792-11e4-bc7c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3NzQSQ4UM
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #19 on: January 06, 2015, 02:54:48 AM »
I would add this to any "wish" list.

I wish that politicians, policy makers and policy influencers (globally) would place addressing the imminent threat of Climate Change on their list of issues that require immediate attention.  Until a majority of the above mentioned groups place Climate Change as one of their top 3 or 4 priorities, nothing will be done!!
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2015, 02:33:53 PM »
While engaging in wishful thinking, maybe policy makers can convince (or require) the fossil fuel industry to leave the indicated (see attached table or the linked references) amounts of proven reserves in the ground.

Christophe McGlade & Paul Ekins, (08 January 2015), "The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C", Nature, Volume: 517, Pages: 187–190, doi:10.1038/nature14016


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v517/n7533/full/nature14016.html

For free access view of entire article see:

http://www.nature.com/articles/nature14016.epdf?referrer_access_token=HOPIPowVFrUCEL8zNI5pQ9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0MEzzy4wDRQte5fViQxiPJjJIfgcjxiQpfQtqwAkMQY0C4O1I7Qfurqbl1qMaXZjRRDr3cwEfMim9b9ILK9hDtL

Abstract: "Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2 °C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2 °C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1,100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this, and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2 °C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions, to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2 °C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2 °C. Our results show that policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #21 on: January 08, 2015, 04:14:39 PM »
This won't have much that is news to folks here, but it might be worth sharing with others. As usual, not everything Guy McPherson says here is completely accurate (the 5 million a year is death from all pollution, not just from GW, iirc), and I can't endorse Peter Wards call for drastic geo-engineering (even though he may well be right that this is the only thing that may be able to save us). But most of the rest is spot on and to the point:

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #22 on: January 09, 2015, 04:50:39 PM »
First: wili, I think that your link to Guy McPherson & Peter Wards did not work.

Second, I have come to think that not only should fossil fuels include progressive pricing (CF&D) to reflect the damage that carbon emissions will do to the environment, in order to converge (due to the progressive pricing) to a sustainable energy supply; but we should extend this approach to all human activities in order to help achieve a sustainable world for future generations.  This approach should be written into the founding documents for all governments in the world (e.g. the US Constitution), in order to ensure the rights of all future generations by making sure that the current generation passes the world forward in at least as good, if not better, shape as they received the world from the preceding generation: 

Given that this is a the Triage folder I will frame my following wish list examples of such an approach with the assumption that a societal collapse (driven primarily, but not exclusively, by climate change:

1.  All scientific research should be required to format their data in a manner that it can be archived in a society-collapse-proof data base (say supported in the USA by the DOE as they run the national labs), in order to ensure that all of this current activity is not wasted and lost to future generations.  Similarly, all plants, animals & GMOs should have DNA archived in a physical and data facility to safeguard them for future generations.

2. All new infrastructure should be required to be designed with adaption plans to accommodate both the mean and the 95% confidence level climate change projected conditions during their project lives, and all infrastructure (including all new & existing military facilities) with marine exposure should be design to address a Maximum Credible Event, MCE, of a 5m Sea Level Rise by 2100.  Otherwise, building permits should not be granted.

3.  All food industries should be required to provide adaption plans to accommodate the RCP 8.5 (BAU) projections to at least the end of this century.  If these industries cannot provide convincing evidence that they can provide a sustainable source of food then either they should be required to include pricing in their products that would allow them to contribute taxes to a fund to provide for alternate sources of food, or for family planning to limit population.

4.  All non-food consumables should include pricing to address pollution and disposal costs, and the associated industries should be required to submit plans explaining how a sustainable supply of comparable products can be provided to society in the future; otherwise they should be required to include pricing in the products so that they can contribute to a fund(s) to provide alternate consumables, or for family planning to limit population.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

viddaloo

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #23 on: January 09, 2015, 05:14:31 PM »
This won't have much that is news to folks here, but it might be worth sharing with others. As usual, not everything Guy McPherson says here is completely accurate (the 5 million a year is death from all pollution, not just from GW, iirc), and I can't endorse Peter Wards call for drastic geo-engineering (even though he may well be right that this is the only thing that may be able to save us).

For what it's worth, McPherson seems to labour under some of the same misconceptions about Arctic sea ice as some of the most vocal people on this forum. In particular, he places too much emphasis on the significance of the first (virtually) ice–free day. The first ice–free day is relatively undramatic out there in the natural world (though significant to people, activists and polluticians), and no major change can be expected on or around this single day that cannot also be expected in the 365 days before or after this day, or indeed today, in January 2015. If for instance you go from 365 days of some ice–cover in 2015 to 364 days in 2016, where's the drama? I think people who think that day is significant for anything other than people haven't really thought this issue through sufficiently.

In terms of hydrate collapse, for instance, the first ice–free day in the CAB is completely insignificant, as the shallow areas feared to suffer such collapses have already been ice–free for large parts of the summer and autumn for about a decade.
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wili

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #24 on: January 09, 2015, 07:28:45 PM »
"I think that your link to Guy McPherson & Peter Wards did not work"

It works for me, and apparently for vid. Though I notice that there is no picture as usually pops up, but there is space for it. Don't know what that's about.

Good points about what policies need to be put in place.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #25 on: January 10, 2015, 05:51:20 PM »
wili

A VERY interesting comment to me by McPherson.

His description of energy, specifically how alternatives are derived from oil, is almost identical to how they are described by Rex Tillerson (CEO Exxon-Mobil).

Tillerson uses that relationship to justify his black version of BAU.  McPherson uses it to argue for the opposite.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

wili

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #26 on: January 10, 2015, 07:44:56 PM »
Yeah. Of course, they both have a bit of merit. But really, how else could they be produced at this point. But it has been a good long time since alternatives have produced enough energy to produce themselves, so the point isn't really completely valid in that sense anymore.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #27 on: January 11, 2015, 09:02:18 AM »
On my wish list:
1. All people will be intelligent and educated and behave rationally, and stop robbing the future to boost the present.
2. All politicians will lead changes and make decisions based on long-term outcomes and regardless of their chances of re-election
3. the world will be led by a unified benevolent dictatorship that will do what's right for the world at large rather than for each entity on its own.

Good luck to all.

Case in point, in my city there has been plans of a metro since about 1982. It's forecast to be completed in about 2032, and dates keep moving away. Everybody knows it will pay off big time both economically and environmentally, but still it hasn't happened. The world doesn't move along a rational plan, it moves along a BAU with incremental modifications. If BAU cannot save us (and I believe it cannot), we are doomed.

JimD

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #28 on: January 18, 2015, 04:48:14 PM »
From a historical perspective I understand the unfortunate aspects of the French Revolution.

But sometimes we need to thin the herd.

Rich people would be a good place to start don't you think?

Quote
Jeff Greene became a billionaire during the recession by betting that people would default on their mortgages. Now, happily ensconced in a 35,000-square-foot estate in Palm Beach, Fla., Mr. Greene has a more optimistic outlook about real estate, at least when it comes to the very rich.
Standing on his private beach, the 59-year-old real estate tycoon pointed to his new luxury hotel down the shore, called the Tideline Ocean Resort & Spa.

Mr. Greene has purchased two other hotels in West Palm Beach and he is working on approvals to build two 30-story towers downtown that would house a five-star hotel, a conference center and the most expensive condos in town....

Mr. Greene’s ultimate wealth statement, however, is a 25-acre property, the Palazzo di Amore, in Beverly Hills, Calif., that he has been turning into a Hearst Castle of the second Gilded Age.

The 35,000-square-foot main house has 12 bedrooms, 23 bathrooms, two kitchens and sweeping views of Los Angeles. There is a guesthouse, a 24-car garage and an “an entertainment complex” with its own bowling alley, rotating dance floor, D.J. booth and laser lights. The complex also has its own vineyard — a rarity in Beverly Hills — and a wine cellar that can hold thousands of bottles.

Mr. Greene has put the estate on the market, after seven years of building it. The asking price is $195 million, making it what is believed to be the most expensive public listing in the country.

“When you consider the value of the land and the quality of the construction,” Mr. Greene said, “$195 million is really quite reasonable.”

Ah yes!  Let them eat cake.

Guillotine anyone?  Lamp posts?  Clubs, pitchforks, ...

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/18/business/home-the-ultimate-investment.html
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #29 on: February 16, 2015, 12:48:25 AM »
This seemed like a good place to put this.  Neven will have heart pangs lol.

Are we in the US heading in the right direction?  You bet!  lol

Things like this completely wipe out the little incremental gains due to the green BAU topics.

Quote
...For the first time, U.S. builders last year sold slightly more homes priced above $400,000 than those below $200,000. As a result, the median price of new homes exceeded $280,000, a record in nominal terms and 2% shy of the 2006 inflation-adjusted peak.

Long story short, only the top-tier earners can afford to buy houses.

Total sales last year, however, were up just 1% compared with 2013, and more than 50% below their average from 2000 to 2002, before the housing bubble.

New homes are also getting bigger. The median U.S. home was more than 2,400 square feet in the third quarter of 2014, a 20% increase from early 2000 and a 10% increase from the peak of the housing market in 2006.

In Seattle, the median new-home size topped 2,500 square feet last year, a record, according to research firm Metrostudy Inc. Since the market hit bottom in 2011, sales of new homes priced above $600,000 have tripled, while sales below $400,000 are down 16%, according to CoreLogic DataQuick.

Builders boost profits selling more expensive homes. But less construction overall means fewer new jobs and reduced total spending.

.....

Quote
...The emergence of a two-tiered U.S. economy, with wealthy households advancing while middle- and lower-income Americans struggle, is reshaping markets for everything from housing to clothing to groceries to beer...

American spending patterns after the recession underscore why many U.S. businesses are reorienting to serve higher-income households, said Barry Cynamon, of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Since 2009, average per household spending among the top 5% of U.S. income earners—adjusting for inflation—climbed 12% through 2012, the most recent data available. Over the same period, spending by all others fell 1% per household, according to Mr. Cynamon, a visiting scholar at the bank’s Center for Household Financial Stability, and Steven Fazzari of Washington University in St. Louis, who published their research findings last year [graph left].

The spending rebound following the recession “appears to be largely driven by the consumption at the top,” Mr. Cynamon said. He and Mr. Fazzari found the wealthiest 5% of U.S. households accounted for around 30% of consumer spending in 2012, up from 23% in 1992.....

I just watched a piece on the news about the fad in wealthy parts of LA where they are building 30,000 to 90,000 sq ft houses.  And another recently about NY City where they are throwing up giant luxury apartments for wealthy investors many of whom do not intend to actually live in them any real amount of time per year.  It is class war with the rich and we are losing.

Pitchforks and torches...
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #30 on: February 16, 2015, 11:25:17 AM »
Building a new homes in a conventional manner (e.g. steel, bricks &etc) causes enormous amount of carbon to be emitted and the lifestyles of the affluent pollute.....

Quote
New settlements in developed countries damage the world
In developed countries, new settlements damage the world. Building them brings materials from the world marketplace, causing destruction of nature and atmospheric pollution. The greenhouse gasses emitted by sourcing these materials cause the emission of large amount of greenhouse gasses.

The lifestyles of the residents in new developments are also damaging. Even if these newcomers wanted to live a world-friendly life-style, they would find it impossible because the other residents are mostly the affluent who live high-carbon lifestyles with a high level of car ownership. Consequently these developments do not have the facilities and organisation necessary for low-carbon lifestyles such as local shops and public transport.

http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/the-green-settlement-handbook/
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Neven

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #31 on: February 16, 2015, 09:40:58 PM »
This seemed like a good place to put this.  Neven will have heart pangs lol.

There are 8-10 persons living in each of those new, bigger homes, right? Say it is so, Jim!  ;D

You know, it's (almost) the same over here in Austria. They have this tradition of building their own homes, and a lovely tradition it was. You have these parks you can visit that are filled with these  200-400 year old houses, all of them wooden, big (because farms), but rational.

This tradition got infused with consumerism, huge brick and concrete homes that can only be insulated with synthetic trash, all of them heated to 24 °C (18-19°C is more than plenty in winter, it's f****ng winter, put a sweater on!) with Party-Keller and automatic shutters and other nonsense.

There was this young lad who taught my daughter to climb. He wanted to build a house, and asked me about our plans etc. He was relatively eco-minded, so I was really hopeful to have a good influence on him. In the end he built - in the middle of nowhere, so he'll spend half the day in his car - a 1600 foot brick and concrete house (not even a wife or kids yet), the cheapest possible styrofoam all over the place, but with a thatched roof (that's the eco part). It's even better insulated than our home, but he still has a huge heat pump to heat his stone floor, and an enormous wood stove with concrete chimney, so that he can walk around on bare feet and in his T-shirt during winter. And then he complains to me that nobody is eco-minded nowadays!

It makes me cry, really it does.  :'(
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #32 on: February 18, 2015, 12:51:45 AM »
I am moving the following discussion over from the "Conservative Scientists & its Consequences" thread:

Quote from ASLR from Reply #659 of the linked thread:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=1053.650

"…. (see the Extract below from the Economist magazine) as based on science it appears that the majority of humans are not wired to deal well with the climate change challenge:

Rafael Wlodarski, John Manning , R. I. M. Dunbar, (2015), "Stay or stray? Evidence for alternative mating strategy phenotypes in both men and women", Biology Letters, Volume: 11 Issue: 2, DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2014.0977

http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/11/2/20140977

http://rsbl.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/roybiolett/11/2/20140977.full.pdf

See also:

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21642000-promiscuity-and-fidelity-seem-be-specific-biological-adaptations-their

Extract: "Dr Wlodarski and his colleagues calculate that cads outnumber dads by a ratio of 57:43. Loose women, by contrast, are outnumbered by their more constant sisters, but by only 53:47. Each of these ratios tends in the direction of received wisdom. Both, though, are close enough to 50:50 for that fact to need an explanation.


If their analysis is correct, Dr Wlodarski and his colleagues have probably stumbled on a type of equilibrium known to biologists as an evolutionarily stable strategy, in which a way of behaving becomes more advantageous as it gets rarer, and less so as it gets commoner. Cads succeed when dads are frequent, and vice versa. Neither can conquer and neither can vanish. Such equilibria are part of a branch of math called game theory—"

The Wlodarski et al 2015 work adds some scientific clarity for understanding the nature of the "Tyranny of the Commons" problem for climate change; as "Climate Cads" (CCs), with a high tolerance for risk for emitting GHG, constitutes about 53 to 57% of the general population; while "Climate Dads" (CDs), who prefer to husband the Earth's Systems for the benefit of future generations, constitutes only 43 to 47% of the general population. Furthermore, when "CDs" work towards a relatively stable society (such as now), "CCs" benefit and become more numerous; while when climate change eventually destabilizes society "CDs" will become more valuable and for some generations to come may out-number "CCs".

Wlodarski et al 2015's work adds perspective on why society pressures scientists (who may have a higher percentage of Dads than society-at-large) to set a relatively high/risky limit of 2 C; as due to thermal inertia in the Earth Systems "Climate Cads" can inappropriately advocate that they have emitted GHG for decades without any consequences, while "Climate Dads" have been overly cautious when they advocate for a lower limit.  Due to such uncertainties (as cited by the "CCs") it is not possible to definitively predict how much damage would result from temperature rises projected by AR5 (putting aside the concern that these projections may well be too low); thus "CCs" have pressured the IPCC to set higher limits as "CCs" are in the voting majority and they have high risk-tolerance.   "

To which in Reply #660 Lennart asked:

"And is there any way in which we can overcome the apparent tyranny of evolutionary stable strategies (other than possibly by extinction)?"

& in Reply #661 Lennart posted:

"Maybe Gus Speth has the answer:

http://www.thenation.com/article/196217/how-i-became-radical#

'Radicalism'?"

My response is that the Tyranny of the Commons problem is a sub-set of the Tryanny of small decisions problem (see Wikipedia link and extracts below):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyranny_of_small_decisions


Extract : "Aristotle (384–322 BC) similarly argued against common goods of the polis of Athens:
For that which is common to the greatest number has the least care bestowed upon it. Everyone thinks chiefly of his own, hardly at all of the common interest; and only when he is himself concerned as an individual. For besides other considerations, everybody is more inclined to neglect the duty which he expects another to fulfill; as in families many attendants are often less useful than a few.
 
Thomas Mun (1571–1641), an English mercantilist, commented about decisions made with a myopic, small time perspective:
[T]hey search no further than the beginning of the work, which mis-informs their judgements, and leads them into error: For if we only behold the actions of the husbandman in the seed-time when he casteth away much good corn into the ground, we will rather account him a mad-man than a husbandman: but when we consider his labours in the harvest which is the end of his endeavours, we find the worth and plentiful increase of his actions.

Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk (1851–1914), an Austrian economist, observed that decisions made with small time perspectives can have a seductive quality:
It occurs frequently, I believe, that a person is faced with a choice between a present and a future satisfaction or dissatisfaction and that he decides in favor of lesser present pleasure even though he knows perfectly well, and is even explicitly aware at the moment he makes his choice, that the future disadvantage is the greater and that therefore his well-being, on the whole, suffers by reason of his choice. The "playboy" squanders his whole month's allowance in the first few days on frivolous dissipation. How clearly he anticipates his later embarrassment and deprivation! And yet he is unable to resist the temptations of the moment."

With this "Tyranny of the small decisions" background, it is clear that the capital behind capitalism is the compounded delayed gratification (possibly produced by labor) owned by the wealthy that is provided to labor in order to produce more "goods".  Unfortunately, capital without power produces nothing so consequently our current modern international capitalistic market place is driven by fossil fuel activated capital (plus resources of labor and material).  In this sense, the "Climate Cads" that I discussed are addicted to the "goods" produced by modern international capitalism and are not currently willing to internalize the cost of the climate change related damage caused by fossil fuel to drive the capitalistic engineer that produces the "goods" they addictively want more and more of, even if this addiction means that future generations will likely suffer from societal collapse.

Obviously, the game theory mathematics of the "Tyranny of the small decisions" problem can be played in a very large number of ways in order to gain an improved Nash Equilibrium solution that considers both the common good of the whole planet and the "Social Cost of Carbon", SCC (see also Gus Speth's, JimD's and other's ideas in this thread for some of those solutions).   Also, while there is no perfect long-term solution to the "Tyranny of the small decision" problem for climate change for all of society, I believe that it is possible to do much better than we are currently doing by implementing steps including the following:

A. The IPCC should issue small annual reports using projections from the CESM – H model and/or the annual projections issued by the ACME model as it is iteratively improved.  Then the consequences of these impacts should be accessed using methodology such as cited by Weitzman (2014a), and then this Social Cost of Carbon, SCC should be added to a progressively increasing carbon fee and dividend plan adopted by COP21 in Paris 2015 as discussed in Weitzman (2014b).

Weitzman, M. L. (2014a) "Fat Tails and the Social Cost of Carbon", American Economic Review, 104(5): 544-46, DOI: 10.1257/aer.104.5.544

Weitzman ML. (2014b), "Can Negotiating a Uniform Carbon Price Help to Internalize the Global Warming Externality?", Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists [Internet], 1(1/2):29-49.

http://scholar.harvard.edu/weitzman/publications/can-negotiating-uniform-carbon-price-help-internalize-global-warming

http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/weitzman/files/676039cannegotiatingauniform.pdf

B. Any countries refusing to agree to the carbon fee & dividend COP21 plan cited in (A) should be subject to an equivalent tariff on all of their goods exported to the COP21 participants, and the participants should keep the tariffs until the "Climate Cad" countries sign on to the COP21 plan.

Best,
ASLR

Edit: The CESM - H projections can be found here:

R. Justin Small, Julio Bacmeister, David Bailey, Allison Baker, Stuart Bishop, Frank Bryan, Julie Caron, John Dennis, Peter Gent, Hsiao-ming Hsu, Markus Jochum, David Lawrence, Ernesto Muñoz, Pedro diNezio, Tim Scheitlin, Robert Tomas, Joseph Tribbia, Yu-heng Tseng, & Mariana Vertenstein, (December 2014), "A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model", JAMES, Volume 6, Issue 4, Pages 1065–1094, DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000363

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1002/2014MS000363/

And the following link provides public access to the CESM-H model run outputs:

http://www.earthsystemgrid.org/

Edit: For those not aware, discussion about Carbon Fee & Dividend plans can be found at the thread linked below:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1068.0.html
« Last Edit: February 18, 2015, 03:54:16 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #33 on: February 19, 2015, 07:14:29 PM »
I am not saying that BP may not be "putting their thumb on the scale" but in the linked article (and attached images) they implies that triage plans such as put forth by the IEA are not realistic, as they believe that the world's energy demands cannot be met without using the fossil fuels indicated in the first attached image and their second attached image indicates that in their opinion renewables cannot fill the gap in a timely fashion.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/17/bp-says-huge-rise-in-energy-demand-at-odds-with-climate-change-fight?utm_source=Energydesk+Daily+Email&utm_campaign=6ecf58850e-Energydesk_Dispatch5_9_2013&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ad1a620334-6ecf58850e-128148917

However, BP does support carbon pricing (though probably a less aggressive plan than the Carbon Fee and Dividend with Tariffs plan that I advocate ala James Hansen).
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

wili

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2015, 09:53:04 AM »
Don't know if this thread is the right place for this video, but here's a new lecture by Kevin Anderson at Exeter U. on what it would take to have even a 50% chance of staying below 2 C.

At about minute 28 he gives the essentials:

40% reduction in emissions by Annex One countries by 2018;

70% by 2024;

Over 90% by 2030.



Anyone here plan to reduce their emissions by over ten percent per year every year for the next 15 years or so?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Zythryn

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2015, 02:15:08 PM »
... It is class war with the rich and we are losing.

Pitchforks and torches...

You aren't talking about triage, you are talking about hastening the collapse.

You know how the super rich influence elections?
Through illogical please to emotion typically based on fear.

Pitchforks and torches aren't needed, voting ballots are.

On my wish list is...
Require basic logic courses in 3rd, 6th, 9th, 11th and 12th grades.

Do you know why politicians avoid social security cuts like the plague?  It is because the elderly vote.
Get more people voting on the climate change issue and politicians will fall in line.

JimD

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2015, 04:22:28 PM »
... It is class war with the rich and we are losing.

Pitchforks and torches...

You aren't talking about triage, you are talking about hastening the collapse.

You know how the super rich influence elections?
Through illogical please to emotion typically based on fear.

Pitchforks and torches aren't needed, voting ballots are.

On my wish list is...
Require basic logic courses in 3rd, 6th, 9th, 11th and 12th grades.

Do you know why politicians avoid social security cuts like the plague?  It is because the elderly vote.
Get more people voting on the climate change issue and politicians will fall in line.


Yup I am.  I have listened to the calls for education and increased voting percentages being a solution for more than 40 years.  Doesn't work.  Where the thought that increased education will work comes from I do not know.  Most people already know what the problem is and they avoid dealing with it.  It is not education is is the dictates of human nature.  Dealing with climate change and over population means dealing with long term problems and solutions.  We don't do that.  We deal with short term issues pretty much exclusively.  We are not going to give up our lifestyle for anything.  Thus the incredible emphasis on green BAU solutions.  One large group says everything is fine and don't rock the boat (the BAU contingent) and their weak cousins say it will be alright if we build a few solar farms and windmills, now everyone move along there is nothing going on here. 

Requiring logic courses would not only hurt a lot of fragile minds (lol) it would accomplish nothing.  Studies have shown that even the most rational logical people (of which there are almost none in any case) make almost all of their decisions subconsciously and then rationalize their decisions.   It is not possible to train rational thought into people.  Thus the doctrine of the scientific method which was designed to provide a decision framework which attempts to ignore all of our subconscious decision making to arrive at logical conclusions.  Look how difficult it is for accomplished academics to adhere to those guidelines.  Expecting the common citizen to not only study enough to understand the issues but to then act logically and rationally on them to deal with long term problems is asking a dog to fly.

However, getting those same non-logical people to pick up a pitchfork and torch fits right in with their evolutionary programming and is not that hard to trigger with the right tugs on their subconscious fears.  Spend some time watching the news and see how little reason has to do with what happens in this world.

One of the best triages we could have would be to get rid of the rich.  They will not hesitate to throw us under the bus...actually they have already done that I suppose.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

viddaloo

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2015, 06:48:00 PM »
Yup I am.  I have listened to the calls for education and increased voting percentages being a solution for more than 40 years.  Doesn't work.  Where the thought that increased education will work comes from I do not know.  Most people already know what the problem is and they avoid dealing with it.  It is not education is is the dictates of human nature.  Dealing with climate change and over population means dealing with long term problems and solutions.  We don't do that.  We deal with short term issues pretty much exclusively.  We are not going to give up our lifestyle for anything.  Thus the incredible emphasis on green BAU solutions.  One large group says everything is fine and don't rock the boat (the BAU contingent) and their weak cousins say it will be alright if we build a few solar farms and windmills, now everyone move along there is nothing going on here. 

Requiring logic courses would not only hurt a lot of fragile minds (lol) it would accomplish nothing.  Studies have shown that even the most rational logical people (of which there are almost none in any case) make almost all of their decisions subconsciously and then rationalize their decisions.   It is not possible to train rational thought into people.  Thus the doctrine of the scientific method which was designed to provide a decision framework which attempts to ignore all of our subconscious decision making to arrive at logical conclusions.  Look how difficult it is for accomplished academics to adhere to those guidelines.  Expecting the common citizen to not only study enough to understand the issues but to then act logically and rationally on them to deal with long term problems is asking a dog to fly.

However, getting those same non-logical people to pick up a pitchfork and torch fits right in with their evolutionary programming and is not that hard to trigger with the right tugs on their subconscious fears.  Spend some time watching the news and see how little reason has to do with what happens in this world.

One of the best triages we could have would be to get rid of the rich.  They will not hesitate to throw us under the bus...actually they have already done that I suppose.
Jim, what an excellent summary. Not much to add, other than that the scientific method was the only thing that *could have* saved us. I guess if either human nature was different, or if the rich, as you name them, didn't have such a big lead on the rest of us. A Wikipedia–style central global knowledge hub with a very strict scientific method–app at the core of it, would have been able to make most everything crystal clear and remove all the fabulous "doubt" that the rich love so much. What I found while making one was that its days would be very numbered indeed, because it wouldn't serve their purposes.
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Zythryn

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #38 on: February 22, 2015, 09:42:11 PM »
A. You misunderstood my reason for the logic courses.
It is not to teach students about climate change.
It is to make them less succeptable to control of politicians.

Arguments based on fear and fallacies will hold less sway on people that have a basic understand of logic.

B. You are worse than denialists and less, not more will happen to correct the issues with talk of killing all the rich people.  If you want to hasten the collapse of civilization, fine.

I will continue to try to educate and show people there is a better way.
If civilization is going to collapse anyways, I don't see why we shouldn't, at the very least, delay it rather than hasten it.

Neven

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #39 on: February 22, 2015, 09:48:28 PM »
Instead of killing the (mega)rich, why not save them by installing a cap on how much money and land one person can own? Say, 50 million USD and half an acre? Farmers, of course, can own more land. But not more money!  ;D
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Zythryn

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #40 on: February 22, 2015, 10:06:19 PM »
I like it.

Since we are making wish lists, I would also add a heavy carbon tax.

The government would hire and pay people to renovate where possible, or build truly high efficiency homes.
Likewise for commercial buildings.

Thus, creating jobs as quickly as they are lost from the coal and oil industries.

We also need to build up our infrastructure so we can adapt as best possible.

As suggested earlier, stop insuring people in flood plains and tie insurance availability to sea level rise.  So as those levels continue to rise, insurance is no longer available for new flood prone areas.
Or perhaps a one-shot insurance where you get insurance coverage once.
If you rebuild in the same spot, you are on your own.

viddaloo

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #41 on: February 22, 2015, 10:24:38 PM »
If civilization is going to collapse anyways, I don't see why we shouldn't, at the very least, delay it rather than hasten it.
Zythryn, the reason is rather obvious but nevertheless explained many times on this forum already, for instance in this top post: Embracing Darkness - Optimism for the 22nd Century
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #42 on: February 24, 2015, 12:06:48 AM »
Since we are making lists:


Reduce carbon emissions to 50% of 2007 level by 2030; net zero emissions by 2050.  End fossil fuel subsidies; invest the money saved into infrastructure.

Ramp up "wartime"-level production of solar, wind and batteries.  Give tax credits/subsidies for renewables installation which start out at a generous level but decrease every year, encouraging early adoption.

Put a price on carbon, which increases every year.  Return dividends preferentially to those with the lowest incomes (regardless of their fossil fuel use).

Increase ride-sharing and car services such as Uber.  Encourage adoption of pure electric vehicles (EVs). Require twice as many Charging spots as Disabled parking spots, and gradually increase so 100% of all parking spots must have chargers.  [Solar Roadways parking lots???]. Restrict new gasoline vehicles to being rented, for short periods only, but never owned.  Require gas stations to install EV chargers.

Require utilities to accept residential and community solar, wind, battery and EV vehicle-to-grid interconnections.  Require smart meters so customers can choose cheaper power options such as automatically decreasing air conditioning during heavy demand periods.

Require all new homes and buildings to be net zero energy.  Tax older buildings that do not increase their energy efficiency.  Subsidize high-efficiency appliances (microwave) via surcharge on low-efficiency appliances (oven, stove-top).  Subsidize home energy-efficiency improvements.

Encourage community "tool libraries" to increase the borrowing, rather than purchase, of tools, appliances, etc. that are only rarely used.

Encourage crowd-funding of new technology and products.
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JimD

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #43 on: February 24, 2015, 12:34:12 AM »
A. You misunderstood my reason for the logic courses.
It is not to teach students about climate change.
It is to make them less succeptable to control of politicians.

Arguments based on fear and fallacies will hold less sway on people that have a basic understand of logic.

B. You are worse than denialists and less, not more will happen to correct the issues with talk of killing all the rich people.  If you want to hasten the collapse of civilization, fine.

I will continue to try to educate and show people there is a better way.
If civilization is going to collapse anyways, I don't see why we shouldn't, at the very least, delay it rather than hasten it.

Yes there is a better way.  That is exactly the point I am trying to make all the time.  And it is not delay.

Not that the pitchforks and torches are not a pretty good idea, but that is more humor than intent.  Now if I were not an old man that opinion might change.....

If collapse is certain (as logic seems to indicate pretty strongly) then the worst thing one can do is delay it as long as possible as you suggest.  Spend some time thinking through all the issues and Cold Logic will get you there every time.  Delay just guarantees that there are vastly less resources left for the survivors to have access to to try and rebuild what is left of civilization.  And even suggesting that we have time for delay gives endless ammunition to those advocating endless BAU. 

Endless delay is one of those irrational human weaknesses we always succumb to.  It is the opposite of being rational and logical.  But predictable and expected. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #44 on: February 27, 2015, 08:57:07 PM »
Don't know if this thread is the right place for this video, but here's a new lecture by Kevin Anderson at Exeter U. on what it would take to have even a 50% chance of staying below 2 C.

At about minute 28 he gives the essentials:

40% reduction in emissions by Annex One countries by 2018;

70% by 2024;

Over 90% by 2030.



Anyone here plan to reduce their emissions by over ten percent per year every year for the next 15 years or so?

I would gladly pay more to help the bigger players achieve that timeline, while working towards that goal in my own life.

If convincingly shown the necessity of urgent action, I'm sure others would, too.  But we may be approaching this the wrong way. A better idea might be to offer a choice of crowdfunded projects -- certified ones -- that people can choose.  And get out the message: "Shunning carbon is fun!  And there's perks!" ;D  (Okay, a PR firm might put a bit better zing to the message.  But if Koch can persuade people that climate change is not real, and Big Tobacco can persuade people their product is harmless, we can persuade people that low-carbon alternatives (energy, efficiency, sustainability) are the next must-have.  It's time to use that to our advantage.)

Even today, more and more people are choosing, for example, clean energy, purely for the benefits they will receive from it, not from any altruistic ideas.  The technology and price points have improved to where there are other forces at work now besides Damocles' sword.  8)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #45 on: April 03, 2015, 04:40:08 PM »
The linked article discusses the approach of treating those who want a "free ride" in the fight against climate change as terrorists and to use military force to get them to look after the common good.  At least this would gain the support of the international military industrial complex to fight against climate change:

http://www.rtcc.org/2015/03/31/why-climate-hawks-need-to-prepare-their-arsenals/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #46 on: April 03, 2015, 05:02:22 PM »

While the two linked 2014 articles are a little bit old, they nevertheless make the excellent point that as many countries (particularly those in tropical areas) push to cut their CO₂ emissions (say to comply with CoP21) by promoting hydropower, they will generate a pulse of methane emissions, which have 105 times the GWP of CO₂ over a 20-year period.  Therefore, it is critical that such efforts be properly assessed with regards to both contributions to global warming this century, and also to the risk that such hydropower plants will have reduced benefit/cost ratios after global warming induced droughts are considered:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hydropower-as-major-methane-emitter-18246
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/tropical-dams-methane-18019
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #47 on: April 16, 2015, 03:48:36 PM »
A new study (see link) from the Club of Rome indicates that a circular economy could bring a 70 percent cut in carbon emissions by 2030 (see the attached image).  This Swedish case study is the first in a series of reports to be issued in 2015, suggests that 2015 is a key window of opportunity to start modernizing the EU economy, while boosting jobs and tackling climate change ahead of the UN climate change conference, COP 21, in Paris in December.  While this series of reports are being marketed as a "solution", I image that due to the type of resistance that the "Limits to Growth" report met, that the roadmap provide by these report will be more of a triage measure to help those in a climate change damaged society (which is why I post this in this triage thread):

http://www.clubofrome.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Final-version-Swedish-Study-13-04-15-till-tryck-ny.pdf


Extract: "As expressed by Walter Stahel: ”A circular economy increases employment because less than a quarter of the labour input to produce a physical good is engaged in the fabrication of basic raw materials such as cement, steel, glass and resins, while more than three quarter are in the manufacturing and service phase. The reverse is true for energy inputs: three times as much energy is used to extract virgin or primary materials as is used to manufacture products from these materials. Substituting reused components and goods for primary materials therefore uses less energy but provide more jobs’s.”"

see also:
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/apr/15/circular-economy-jobs-climate-carbon-emissions-eu-taxation

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #48 on: April 16, 2015, 04:37:27 PM »
The linked article indicates how one green-BAU policy can cause more problems than it solves.  This illustrates the risks that following an exclusively green-BAU approach can cause.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/16/3644889/woody-biomass-is-thicket-of-trouble/

Extract: "In late March, a loosely affiliated coalition of southerners gathered outside of the British Consulate in Atlanta, Georgia with an unusual concern: wood pellets. The group, primarily made up of outdoors enthusiasts and conservationists, had traveled from multiple states to British Consul General Jeremy Pilmore-Bedford’s doorstep. Chief on their minds was the rapidly increasing use of the pellets, a form of woody biomass harvested from forests throughout the southeastern U.S. and burned for renewable electricity in Europe. According to the group, what started as a minor section of Europe’s renewable energy law has now burgeoned into a major climate and environmental headache.

“We were trying to elevate the profile of what exactly is going on on the ground here in the U.S.,” Shelby White, who helped organize the event, told ThinkProgress. “And also how it conflicts with the intentions of the policies that are driving the massive explosion of the industry.”"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Climate Change Triage - cutting out the rot and the fat
« Reply #49 on: April 19, 2015, 05:05:27 PM »
The following quote from Elon Musk in the linked article confirms that he wants to seed Mars with a human colony as an insurance plan (or a triage measure) in case something bad (including climate catastrophe) happens on Earth.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/04/16/elon_musk_and_mars_spacex_ceo_and_our_multi_planet_species.html

Extract: "Musk didn’t hesitate. “Humans need to be a multiplanet species,” he replied."

Edit: For example see the attached image (with the following caption) comparing observed vs CESM-H vs CESM-S annual mean SST along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson