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wili

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GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« on: January 08, 2015, 10:04:49 PM »
I saw this article and I didn't notice a thread for it to fit well into, so I thought I'd start this one. There already are, and there will be more and more, climate refugees as effects become more and more intense and permanently devastating.

Prepare for rising migration driven by climate change, governments told


   
Quote
Governments should plan for increased relocations for millions of people likely to be displaced by natural disasters and extreme weather linked to global warming, scientists warn. Projections by leading climate scientists of rising sea levels, heatwaves, floods and droughts linked to global warming are likely to oblige millions of people to move out of harm’s way, with some never able to return.

    ... Chaloka Beyani, the United Nations’ special rapporteur on the human rights of internally displaced persons, told Reuters that governments should step up planning for migrants.

    “For the future we are looking more to planned relocations for people who are prone to frequent hazards,” he said.

    ... Climate change also added reasons for people to leave home by disrupting food and water supplies. “Access to resources, constrained by climatic factors, breeds conflict,” he said.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/08/prepare-rising-migration-driven-by-climate-change-governments-told

Is your area most likely to be a place where such refugees are flowing out of or into. If the latter, what will the likely response to potentially huge waves of such refugees likely be?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

ritter

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2015, 10:39:45 PM »
I do wonder how the US will react when Mexico/Central America begins the migration north for climate as well as economic reasons. I also wonder how Canada will react to the US invasion.  ;)

sidd

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #2 on: January 09, 2015, 02:38:23 AM »
In 1970, 10 million Bangladeshis fled to india during the Bangladesh independence struggle. It would be naive to imagine the central planners in New Delhi are unaware of the coming migration. Especially in light of the trickle already coming thru. And in light of the tremendous himan movement that took place in 1947 after Indian/Pakistani independence.

Let us hope those planners are empathetic.

sidd

wili

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #3 on: January 09, 2015, 05:01:54 AM »
Good points, rit and sidd. It would be interesting to look at dynamics during earlier mass migration periods. Thanks for pointing out the South Asian situation. I'm not sure about the empathic part.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

sidd

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #4 on: January 09, 2015, 07:50:15 PM »
There were horrific massacres in 1947. In 1970, the refugees were put in camps, with little overt violence, but those camps persisted for the better part of a decade. Today, Bangladeshi migrants are being killed in Assam. Not so nice.

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ritter

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #5 on: January 09, 2015, 08:36:38 PM »
There were horrific massacres in 1947. In 1970, the refugees were put in camps, with little overt violence, but those camps persisted for the better part of a decade.

Let's not forget that we have doubled our population since those times as well. There will be many more in the "mass migration" than we've ever experienced relying on ever-shrinking resources in the destination area.

Sleepy

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #6 on: January 10, 2015, 08:09:14 AM »
Into (Sweden).
As I see it, our refugees from Syria are climate refugees.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/innovation/is-a-lack-of-water-to-blame-for-the-conflict-in-syria-72513729/?no-ist

We have a strong movement here against accepting them, the 'Sweden Democrats', think we can 'help' them in Syria instead, as with all other immigrants and escpecially muslims. They also tried to force the country into a re-election this year. We are ~9,6 million people here and they have roughly 800000 voters.
In my own municipality they are No2, their leader here moved to the 'Party of the Swedes' last year. I won't link to that, but that's were their roots are.

Our leaders are expressing concerns about Swedens reputation abroad being torn, because of those moscs being burnt. Not so much about mitigation and AGW. We can still prosper and have economic growth, they say.

And we do prosper.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1092.msg41783.html#msg41783
Car sales are up, and retail sales were booming during the holidays.

wili

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2015, 12:22:39 AM »
Thanks for that perspective, Sleepy. I had no idea.

For a broader perspective, now, here's:

Extreme Weather Displaces Far More People Than War — And It’s Getting Worse

Quote
“Natural disasters displace three to 10 times more people than all conflicts and war in the world combined,” said Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).

In a recent report, NRC found that in 2013 floods, hurricanes, and other natural disasters drove 22 million people out of their homes — three times the number of people displaced by war and twice as many as were displaced by extreme weather in the 1970s. The study also found that certain parts of the world were disproportionately affected by disasters: More than 80 percent of those displaced over the last five years lived in Asia.

https://news.vice.com/article/extreme-weather-displaces-far-more-people-than-war-and-its-getting-worse
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

JimD

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2015, 07:54:57 PM »
A couple of years ago we discussed some of this.

I thought then and still do that the poster child for this problem will be Bangladesh.

Rising sea levels and storm surges are going to obliterate a significant percentage of the country by the end of the century.  The only place for these people to migrate is to India.  Into what will be soon the most populated country on earth and one that is already melting down in environmental/climate change terms.  Not the mention their joint history of extreme violence and religious intolerance.

India already maintains a border fence and Indian security personnel kill a couple of thousand border crosser's a year.

There is great potential for a future genocide resulting from this budding problem.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

johnm33

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #9 on: January 12, 2015, 12:59:05 AM »
UK, out, but where to i've no idea, but it'll be leave or die for millions. The most the UK mainland ever supported [sustainably?] was about 15M in the time of Arthur [540 ish left a wasteland :-( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_Baillie] and we so lacked social cohesion after that, that numbers never recovered until the industrial revolution over a thousand years later.

Sigmetnow

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #10 on: November 15, 2015, 02:00:27 PM »
Climate change plays a part in the current Syrian refugee crisis, but has strong ties to the situation in Niger.

Safe haven elusive for Africans fleeing conflict, climate stress
Quote
The growing flow of migrants into drought-prone Niger, whose own population often struggles with hunger, raises tough questions about why people are moving from one risky place to another and how to head off related tensions, experts say.
http://www.trust.org/item/20151111103702-lwas6/
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Paddy

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #11 on: November 15, 2015, 04:30:37 PM »
Bangladesh is only part (albeit a large part) of the regional problem.  Vietnam, Thailand, and Myanmar also face trouble ahead due to a large proportion of their population living in areas that would be below sea level.

I also have to wonder if the problem in the region will be exacerbated by the extensive hydroelectric dams in China, which among other things (a) prevent the normal silt deposition that contributes to coastal land levels in river deltas both domestic and foreign (including all the above countries and India), and (b) increase the vulnerability of land in estuaries to saltwater encroachment.

Sleepy

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2015, 09:04:11 AM »
A video in/from the Guardian as a follow up to my comment from January above (#6). This is unfortunately a true side of my country which is totally impossible to connect to, or communicate with. I tried a few years back but gave up.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/video/2015/nov/23/meet-the-young-supporters-of-swedens-far-right-video

There have been a lot of uglier things, than those mentioned in the video.

Sigmetnow

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #13 on: December 31, 2015, 07:59:42 PM »
Merkel Warns Germans Against Refugee Hate in New Year's Speech
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Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled she’ll use Germany’s economic power to turn a record influx of refugees to the nation’s advantage and urged citizens to reject social conflict fomented by nationalists with “hate in their hearts.”

In a New Year’s address devoted to the impact of the refugee crisis, Merkel said coping with migration will cost Germany “time, effort and money,” according to prepared remarks provided by her office on Thursday. If handled right, the challenges of today will be the opportunities of tomorrow, she said.

Merkel pressed home the point that she’s determined to treat the influx as a chance to modernize and rejuvenate Europe’s biggest economy, a stance that’s won her international accolades while eroding her poll ratings at home. The domestic fallout pushed other crises such as the unresolved conflict in eastern Ukraine and the threat of the U.K. leaving the European Union into the background in her outlook for 2016.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/merkel-warns-germans-against-refugee-hate-in-new-year-s-speech-iitfe13x
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #14 on: January 31, 2016, 07:07:09 PM »
The climate change refugee crisis is only beginning as smugglers shift their focus (& know-how) to Sub-Saharan Africa:

http://qz.com/605609/the-climate-change-refugee-crisis-is-only-just-beginning/

Extract: "These days, climate change is in vogue. Everything from the war in Syria to unrest in West Africa has been laid at the feet of the weather gods. Some of the claims have been dismissed as spurious. But there’s plenty of evidence that migration in sub-Saharan Africa is indeed partly due to extreme weather.

...

Skeptics may wonder why it’s only now that East Africans are making their way north; after all, Ethiopia and its neighbors have seen plenty of deadly natural disasters in the past.
But the routes forged by largely Syrian, Iraqi, and Afghan refugees of war have opened up new possibilities. The demand has led smugglers to lower their prices and expand their knowhow. And for some East Africans, the sense that the sparse rains and unpredictable temperature shifts are both worse than before and here to stay has tipped the scales."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #15 on: February 23, 2016, 03:28:00 AM »
Louisiana Tribe Officially Becomes America's First Climate Refugees
Quote
French-speaking Indians who live deep in Louisiana bayou, some 50 miles south of New Orleans, became the United States' first official climate refugees last week when the federal government awarded them $48 million to relocate.

The Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe has inhabited Isle de Jean Charles for centuries, but because of a slow-moving disaster caused by sinking land, climate change and oil exploration, they've all but lost the land they call home. With more than 1,900 square miles of land vanishing in the past 80 years – equivalent to the size of a football field lost every 45 minutes – the tribe members who live in Isle de Jean Charles have to find a new place to live.
https://weather.com/news/climate/news/biloxi-chitimacha-choctaw-indians-climate-refugees
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #16 on: March 03, 2016, 12:05:25 AM »
The linked article discusses recently published peer reviewed research documenting that the recent drought in Syrian was the worst in at least 900 years and played a role in triggering the recent civil war:

http://mashable.com/2016/03/02/syria-drought-900-years-civil-war/

Extract: "The drought that played a role in triggering the catastrophic Syrian Civil War was the worst such climate event in at least the past 900 years, according to a new study published this week."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2016, 12:28:22 AM »
The linked article indicates while Pakistan is currently struggling against short-term threats like substandard infrastructure & terrorism, in the long-term climate change is a bigger threat to national stability (and for climate refugees):

http://gulfnews.com/opinion/thinkers/pakistan-s-biggest-threat-isn-t-terrorism-it-s-climate-change-1.1685176

Extract: "For decades, Pakistan has struggled to manage urgent crises, ranging from infrastructure woes to terrorism. While its policies focus on short-term conventional threats, a potentially devastating danger lurks in the shadows: Climate change. As the impact of global warming continues to grow, the political and economic instability it brings will threaten Pakistan’s security. The Pakistani government must prioritise its response to climate change in order to mitigate environmental threats and prevent future calamities."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2016, 12:39:55 AM »
There are over 500 million people living in the Middle East and North Africa, and according to the linked article many of them may be forced to migrate well before 2100 with continued global warming:


http://www.science20.com/news_articles/exodus_2100_due_to_climate_change-171722

Extract: "Regardless of which climate change scenario will become reality: both Lelieveld and Hadjinicolaou agree that climate change can result in a significant deterioration of living conditions for people living in North Africa and the Middle East, and consequently, sooner or later, many people may have to leave the region."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2019, 01:36:19 AM »
« Last Edit: June 20, 2019, 06:51:31 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2019, 10:31:55 PM »
This Is the New Face of Climate Change
By 2050, climate change will displace an estimated 150 to 300 million people worldwide.
https://www.vice.com/en_ca/article/43kdk9/this-is-the-new-face-of-climate-change
Quote
“If I start thinking about it, I wonder how it'll be in 15-20 years for my children, or if I'm still alive, what will my children do,” Mejía said. “Because if winter is not good, what will their life be?”
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #22 on: September 01, 2019, 01:27:58 AM »
Climate crisis: Rising sea levels and catastrophic storm surges could displace 280m people, UN warns
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-crisis-sea-level-rise-un-ipcc-report-global-warming-a9083891.html
Quote
Unless there are serious cuts to man-made greenhouse gas emissions, at least 30 per cent of the northern hemisphere’s surface permafrost could melt within just 80 years, the report warns.

This melt would unleash billions of tonnes of carbon stored in what are currently permafrost areas, which will accelerate rates of global warming even more.

The upshot would be warming seas and rising coastlines, which could immediately threaten 280 million people, the document says.

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2019, 05:23:24 PM »
How climate change is driving emigration from Central America
EDIT: See link in reply below
Quote
For several years now, scholars and legal advocates have been asking how to respond to people displaced by environmental conditions. Do existing models of humanitarian response and resettlement work for this new population? Could such persons be recognized as in need of protection under international law, similar to political refugees?

Among the most complicated political questions is who should step up to deal with the harms of climate change, considering that wealthier countries pollute more but are often shielded from the worst effects. How can responsibility be assigned, and more importantly, what is to be done?

In the absence of coordinated action on the part of the global community to mitigate ecological instability and recognize the plight of displaced people, there’s a risk of what some have called “climate apartheid.” In this scenario – climate change combined with closed borders and few migration pathways – millions of people would be forced to choose between increasingly insecure livelihoods and the perils of unauthorized migration.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 07:03:11 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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nanning

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2019, 06:50:19 PM »
Tom, thanks for your posts. I want to point out that the link is unsafe and maybe, please, could you truncate the links? The following link is enough:
https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-driving-emigration-from-central-america-121525
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Alexander555

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #25 on: September 09, 2019, 08:15:12 PM »
Many millions in North Africa and the Middle East could be forced out by rising heat by mid-century:
https://www.cyi.ac.cy/index.php/in-focus/climate-exodus-expected-in-the-middle-east-and-north-africa.html

EDIT: Sundarbans next wave of climate refugees:
https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/591832/climate-refugees/
and in Western Alaska:
https://www.kyuk.org/post/quinhagak-climate-change-means-they-may-have-move

EDIT 2:
Climate refugee target Canada?
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/canada-climate-refugees-1.5165029


I have been watching climate reanalyzer for 2 years now. And in North-Africa it's always colder than normal. I have no idea how that comes, maybe they get more rain. I think their biggest problem is their fast growing population.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 08:45:20 PM by Alexander555 »

gerontocrat

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #26 on: September 09, 2019, 08:36:21 PM »
Some people have been trying to tell the US of A that the US already has a GW Migration / Climate Refugees problem.

But since AGW /Global Heating does not exist, how can the problem exist?

https://www.newsweek.com/american-climate-change-refugees-flooding-moving-north-duluth-1372203
AMERICAN REFUGEES: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT FORCE U.S. MIGRATION NORTH AND WHERE THEY COULD GO
Quote
Climate change is sometimes pouring down or boiling above. But it's not always obvious. And for a segment of the population throughout the United States, climate change could be the culprit that displaces them, creating a new wave of American refugees. Rising sea levels and temperatures are already uprooting residents and leading some experts to question if we'll see a mass migration north.

Superstorm Sandy struck over Halloween in 2012. And it was a monster. The East Coast was decimated by biblical storm surges that killed 117 people. Twenty-two of those deaths were in Staten Island.

Denise English, her husband and two daughters survived the superstorm, escaping with their lives from their two-story home on Fox Beach Avenue as the shifting shoreline (already hampered by erosion) quickly swallowed up most of the homes in their Oakwood Beach neighborhood.

"We were petrified," she recalled to Newsweek, of the whipping gusts and rising waters.

In the wake of the storm, the English family permanently evacuated, as did so many of their neighbors, literally leaving the borough's once tight enclave to the birds.

Patricia Snyder, whose house was on the same street as the Englishes', left behind the home she had lived in since she was an 8-year-old girl when Sandy delivered 6 feet of gushing water.

"Everything was gone from my childhood," Snyder said. "It's all a memory, including the antique furniture that belonged to my grandfather."

Save for a few stragglers, the Oakwood Beach community is virtually gone. Many relocated out of New York and their homes razed, transformed into open space.

"Anyone who sold a home to the state, [it's] back to nature forever," said Tirone.

This back-to-the-land transformation witnessed in Oakwood Beach is repeating itself in southern swaths of Louisiana and Maryland's Eastern Shore, which scientists believe are also becoming tough places to live.
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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #27 on: September 09, 2019, 08:47:02 PM »
Is there any data about how much rain they got in North-Africa in the last 2 years. Maybe there is some influence from the Atlantic or Mediterranean sea.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #28 on: September 13, 2019, 10:21:14 PM »
Extreme Weather Displaced a Record 7 Million in First Half of 2019
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/12/climate/extreme-weather-displacement.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront
Quote
Extreme weather events displaced a record seven million people from their homes during the first six months of this year, a figure that put 2019 on pace to be one of the most disastrous years in almost two decades even before Hurricane Dorian battered the Bahamas.

The Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, which compiles data from governments, United Nations humanitarian agencies and media reports, concluded in a report published Thursday that floods, landslides, cyclones and other extreme weather events temporarily displaced more people in the first half of this year than during the same period in any other year.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2019, 05:38:24 PM »
‘Climigration’: when communities must move because of climate change
https://theconversation.com/climigration-when-communities-must-move-because-of-climate-change-122529
Quote
What happens when climate change causes extreme events to become chronic, potentially rendering some communities unviable? This question is fuelling a new strand of global research focused on “climigration”. Climigration is the planned relocation of entire communities to new locations further from harm. And it has already begun.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #30 on: September 18, 2019, 07:49:26 PM »
Climate migration: Could Pittsburgh be a haven for residents leaving other regions?
https://www.publicsource.org/climate-migration-could-pittsburgh-be-a-haven-for-residents-leaving-other-regions/
Quote
Rust Belt cities, like Buffalo, Duluth and Cincinnati, are capitalizing on the moment to market themselves as a place for climate migrants to land. Pittsburgh, though, appears to be less aggressive to adopt it as a marketing strategy for the city.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: GW Migration / Climate Refugees
« Reply #31 on: September 29, 2019, 02:21:18 PM »
“It’s a slow-motion emergency.”

America’s Great Climate Exodus Is Starting in the Florida Keys
Mass migration begins as coastal homes are bulldozed in the state facing the biggest threat from climate-driven inundation.
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The Great Climate Retreat is beginning with tiny steps, like taxpayer buyouts for homeowners in flood-prone areas from Staten Island, New York, to Houston and New Orleans — and now Rittel’s Marathon Key. Florida, the state with the most people and real estate at risk, is just starting to buy homes, wrecked or not, and bulldoze them to clear a path for swelling seas before whole neighborhoods get wiped off the map.

By the end of the century, 13 million Americans will need to move just because of rising sea levels, at a cost of $1 million each, according to Florida State University demographer Mathew Haeur, who studies climate migration. Even in a “managed retreat,” coordinated and funded at the federal level, the economic disruption could resemble the housing crash of 2008. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-09-20/america-s-great-climate-exodus-is-starting-in-the-florida-keys
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.