2015 sea ice area and extent data

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

5,315,653 km2 (05 October)

Up 135,754 km2 (2.62%) from previous day.

Up 434,593 km2  (8.9%) over past seven days (daily average: 62,085 km2).

Up 282,544 km2  (6.37%) for October (daily average: 56,509 km2).

1,108,228 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

22,865 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

334,772 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

1,286,786 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

4th lowest October to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (23.02% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (12.59%) have recorded the second lowest.

44 days (15.83%) have recorded the third lowest.

143 days in total (51.44%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

3,807,370 km2 (04 October [Day 0.7561])

Down 101,676 km2 (-2.6%) from previous day.

Up 152,327 km2 (4.17%) over past seven days (daily average: 21,761 km2).

Up 97,858 km2 (2.92%) for October (daily average: 24,465 km2).

881,763 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

97,410 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

371,521 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

706,334 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.53% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (6.86%) have recorded the second lowest.

31 days (11.19%) have recorded the third lowest.

57 days in total (20.58%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[jdallen]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

5,315,653 km2 (05 October)

Up 135,754 km2 (2.62%) from previous day.

Up 434,593 km2  (8.9%) over past seven days (daily average: 62,085 km2).

Up 282,544 km2  (6.37%) for October (daily average: 56,509 km2).

1,108,228 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

22,865 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

334,772 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

1,286,786 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

4th lowest October to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (23.02% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (12.59%) have recorded the second lowest.

44 days (15.83%) have recorded the third lowest.

143 days in total (51.44%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

3,807,370 km2 (04 October [Day 0.7561])

Down 101,676 km2 (-2.6%) from previous day.

Up 152,327 km2 (4.17%) over past seven days (daily average: 21,761 km2).

Up 97,858 km2 (2.92%) for October (daily average: 24,465 km2).

881,763 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

97,410 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

371,521 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

706,334 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.53% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (6.86%) have recorded the second lowest.

31 days (11.19%) have recorded the third lowest.

57 days in total (20.58%) have been among the lowest three on record.

How very curious, but indicative of massive inputs of energy taking place, at a time much later in the season than might be considered usual.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 10th

The current 5 day mean is on 5,940,400km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,210,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,667,120km2, a decrease from -1,737,420km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +884,400km2, a decrease from +662,733km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +101.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +91.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +69.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +97.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +100.8k/day.



The increase so far this October is the 13th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily increase of less than 47.2k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 154.4k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 84.9k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

6,588,058 km2 (15 October)

Up 177,315 km2 (2.77%) from previous day.

Up 833,761 km2  (14.49%) over past seven days (daily average: 119,109 km2).

Up 1,554,949 km2  (35.03%) for October (daily average: 103,663 km2).

830,097 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

178,732 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

121,212 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

1,197,646 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

4th lowest October to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (22.22% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (12.15%) have recorded the second lowest.

44 days (15.28%) have recorded the third lowest.

143 days in total (49.65%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

4,983,728 km2 (15 October [Day 0.7863])

Up 127,243 km2 (2.62%) from previous day.

Up 782,200 km2 (18.62%) over past seven days (daily average: 111,743 km2).

Up 1,274,217 km2 (38.06%) for October (daily average: 84,948 km2).

601,242 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

131,155 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

261,520 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

1,151,351 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

5th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.43% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (6.6%) have recorded the second lowest.

34 days (11.81%) have recorded the third lowest.

60 days in total (20.83%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 17th

The current 5 day mean is on 6,724,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,154,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,564,010km2, a decrease from -1,667,120km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +963,067km2, an increase from +884,400km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +112.0k/day, compared to the long term average of +97.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +100.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +90.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +156.6k/day.



The increase so far this October is the 11th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily increase of less than 14.7k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 175.6k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 71.3k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

7,363,764 km2 (20 October)

Up 40,252 km2 (.55%) from previous day.

Up 1,128,853 km2  (18.11%) over past seven days (daily average: 161,265 km2).

Up 2,330,655 km2  (52.51%) for October (daily average: 116,533 km2).

617,270 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

266,488 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

177,187 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

1,014,877 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

4th lowest October to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (21.84% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (11.95%) have recorded the second lowest.

44 days (15.02%) have recorded the third lowest.

143 days in total (48.81%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

5,485,497 km2 (19 October [Day 0.7972])

Up 80,816 km2 (1.5%) from previous day.

Up 812,387 km2 (17.38%) over past seven days (daily average: 116,055 km2).

Up 1,775,985 km2 (53.04%) for October (daily average: 93,473 km2).

529,909 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

179,884 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

113,909 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

846,245 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest October to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.4% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (6.51%) have recorded the second lowest.

34 days (11.64%) have recorded the third lowest.

60 days in total (20.55%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[nuwandaraalwis]

You all are still following the situation in the arctic  I normally follow later spring summer and early Autumn to see ice melting. I am from sri lanka and 23 years. I followed 4 melting seasons 2011, 2012 (suprise) , 2013, 2014. In each occasions i only see monthly updates during the winter. Daily following the ice extent and area in the summer.

[jdallen]

You all are still following the situation in the arctic  I normally follow later spring summer and early Autumn to see ice melting. I am from sri lanka and 23 years. I followed 4 melting seasons 2011, 2012 (suprise) , 2013, 2014. In each occasions i only see monthly updates during the winter. Daily following the ice extent and area in the summer.

Heck, yes, nuwandaraalwis!  We are in a new age, and the nature and quality of the refreeze will have a direct bearing on how things start next spring.  Year round arctic watching is now indicated I think...

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 24th

The current 5 day mean is on 7,731,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,035,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,192,330km2, a decrease from -1,564,010km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +873,733km2, an decrease from +963,067km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +143.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +90.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +156.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +78.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +161.5k/day.



The increase so far this October is the 5th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of at least 114.4k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 207.2k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 1.3k/day.

[jdallen]

Update for the week to October 24th

The current 5 day mean is on 7,731,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,035,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,192,330km2, a decrease from -1,564,010km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +873,733km2, an decrease from +963,067km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.


Interesting different take on the numbers.  Rather than being exceptional, the 2015 increases are completely in keeping with the 2007 and later refreeze behavior.  IN short, not as different as I'd thought.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +143.6k/day, compared to the long term average of +90.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +156.6k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +78.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +161.5k/day.



The increase so far this October is the 5th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of at least 114.4k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 207.2k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 1.3k/day.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 31st

The current 5 day mean is on 8,478,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,743,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -992,960km2, a decrease from -1,192,330km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +490,067km2, an decrease from +873,733km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +106.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +78.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +161.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +77.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +117.8k/day.



The increase this October was the 7th largest on record, while the average extent was the 4th smallest on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 7th

The current 5 day mean is on 9,228,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,442,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -782,640km2, a decrease from -992,960km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +415,330km2, an decrease from +490,067km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +107.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +77.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +117.8k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +64.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +74.3k/day.



The increase so far this November is the 7th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily increase of less than 20.3k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 93.6k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 58.2k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

9,444,658 km2 (13 November)

Up 35,505 km2 (.38%) from previous day.

Up 476,215 km2  (5.31%) over past seven days (daily average: 68,031 km2).

Up 938,935 km2  (21.15%) for November (daily average: 72,226 km2).

334,247 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

214,940 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

132,676 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

730,396 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest November to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (20.19% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (11.04%) have recorded the second lowest.

44 days (13.88%) have recorded the third lowest.

143 days in total (45.11%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

8,094,570 km2 (11 November [Day 0.8602])

Down 36,182 km2 (-.45%) from previous day.

Up 587,453 km2 (7.83%) over past seven days (daily average: 83,922 km2).

Up 1,165,403 km2 (34.81%) for November (daily average: 105,946 km2).

302,718 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

283,598 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

34,869 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

983,797 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest November to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.22% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (6.03%) have recorded the second lowest.

34 days (10.79%) have recorded the third lowest.

60 days in total (19.05%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 14th

The current 5 day mean is on 9,704,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,786,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -758,870km2, a decrease from -782,640km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +370,533km2, a decrease from +415,330km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 6th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +67.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +64.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +74.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +65.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +88.3k/day.



The increase so far this November is the 8th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of more than 0.5k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 104.7k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 53.9k/day.

[Tor Bejnar]

Not sure where this should go...
The attached PDF file includes screen shots of several "Mean number of open water (no sea ice) days in the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (across 30 ensemble members)" from ASIB If global warming continues unabated..., specifically 2012 and 2019 through 2031.

The 2030 "30-days-per-year" area looks to be about half the equivalent 2012 area.  To me, this suggests functionally ice free Arctic (< 1 million sq. km. at minimum) may occur about then.

(I cannot make showable attachments at home (alas), and I'm home recovering from surgery.  If someone would convert the PDF and repost it, I'd be appreciative!)

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

9,599,076 km2 (20 November)

Up 7,588 km2 (.08%) from previous day.

Up 154,418 km2  (1.63%) over past seven days (daily average: 22,060 km2).

Up 1,093,353 km2  (24.63%) for November (daily average: 54,668 km2).

617,183 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

96,139 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

324,454 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

98,439 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest November to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (19.75% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (10.8%) have recorded the second lowest.

45 days (13.89%) have recorded the third lowest.

144 days in total (44.44%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

8,528,417 km2 (18 November [Day 0.8794])

Up 128,557 km2 (1.53%) from previous day.

Up 433,846 km2 (5.36%) over past seven days (daily average: 61,978 km2).

Up 1,599,249 km2 (47.76%) for November (daily average: 88,847 km2).

322,533 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

73,571 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

56,012 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

422,677 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest November to-date average.

7th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.17% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

19 days (5.9%) have recorded the second lowest.

34 days (10.56%) have recorded the third lowest.

60 days in total (18.63%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 21st

The current 5 day mean is on 10,017,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,001,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -902,320km2, an increase from -758,870km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +65,133km2, a decrease from +370,530km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 8th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +44.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +65.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +88.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +70.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +74.3k/day.



The increase so far this November is the 17th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of more than 35.6k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 151.4k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 61.0k/day.

[magnamentis]

Update for the week to November 21st

The current 5 day mean is on 10,017,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,001,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -902,320km2, an increase from -758,870km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +65,133km2, a decrease from +370,530km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 8th lowest last week.

finally the obvious becomes true, i started to doubt my judgment since i predicted a halt (retreat) in growth for more than 2 months now, very interesting development indeed. the atlantic side lost a huge amount in extent which, to this extent, i personally find astonishing at this time of the year, almost looks like during early melt periods. the heat is on (there) and sooner or later it had to manifest itself. thanks for those graphs, they're very helpful to keep track.

[DavidR]

CT Area is poised to drop to lowest on record if it follows the same trend as extent. Currently (20th Nov) it is second lowest, a mere 5 K above 2006 however 2006 jumps 180K over the next three days.

It  does look like the heat is on.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

10,334,038 km2 (27 November)

Up 108,281 km2 (1.06%) from previous day.

Up 734,962 km2  (7.66%) over past seven days (daily average: 104,995 km2).

Up 1,828,315 km2  (41.19%) for November (daily average: 67,715 km2).

378,957 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

68,206 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

166,095 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

258,710 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest November to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (19.34% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (10.57%) have recorded the second lowest.

45 days (13.6%) have recorded the third lowest.

144 days in total (43.5%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

8,415,887 km2 (22 November [Day 0.8904])

Down 13,024 km2 (-.15%) from previous day.

Up 258,216 km2 (3.17%) over past seven days (daily average: 36,888 km2).

Up 1,486,720 km2 (44.4%) for November (daily average: 67,578 km2).

690,364 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

304,099 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

523,621 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

128,776 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest November to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.15% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

20 days (6.13%) have recorded the second lowest.

35 days (10.74%) have recorded the third lowest.

62 days in total (19.02%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to November 28th

The current 5 day mean is on 10,583,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,867,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -830,140km2, a decrease from -902,320km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +111,467km2, an increase from +65,133km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +80.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +70.6k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +74.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +90.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +89.5k/day.



The increase so far this November is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of more than 443.6k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 397.5k/day and an average gain requires a loss of 8.6k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

10,780,988 km2 (04 December)

Up 76,606 km2 (.72%) from previous day.

Up 446,950 km2  (4.33%) over past seven days (daily average: 63,850 km2).

Up 229,243 km2  (5.16%) for December (daily average: 57,311 km2).

423,159 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

50,539 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

353,065 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

56,102 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

6th lowest December to-date average.

6th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (18.93% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

35 days (10.36%) have recorded the second lowest.

45 days (13.31%) have recorded the third lowest.

144 days in total (42.6%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

9,490,736 km2 (02 December [Day 0.9178])

Up 60,047 km2 (.64%) from previous day.

Up 844,863 km2 (9.77%) over past seven days (daily average: 120,695 km2).

Up 148,125 km2 (4.42%) for December (daily average: 74,062 km2).

267,044 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

13,022 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

178,050 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

265,179 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest December to-date average.

5th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.08% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

23 days (6.85%) have recorded the second lowest.

35 days (10.42%) have recorded the third lowest.

65 days in total (19.35%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 5th

The current 5 day mean is on 11,282,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,375,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -762,320km2, a decrease from -830,140km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +183,267km2, an increase from +111,467km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +99.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +90.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +89.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +70.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +87.1k/day.



The increase so far this December is the 18th smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily increase of less than 38.9k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 91.0k/day and an average gain requires a loss of 57.6k/day.



The increase this November was the 10th largest on record, while the average extent was the 7th smallest on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 12th

The current 5 day mean is on 11,771,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,919,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -763,120km2, an increase from -762,320km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +63,000km2, a decrease from +183,267km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +69.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +70.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +87.1k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +61.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +60.4k/day.



The increase so far this December is the 19th smallest/largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily increase of less than 23.9k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 98.8k/day and an average gain requires a loss of 53.1k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

11,455,927 km2 (13 December)

Up 75,076 km2 (.66%) from previous day.

Up 599,690 km2  (5.52%) over past seven days (daily average: 85,670 km2).

Up 904,182 km2  (20.37%) for December (daily average: 69,552 km2).

411,674 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

33,388 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

208,443 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

137,439 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest December to-date average.

5th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (18.44% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

36 days (10.37%) have recorded the second lowest.

48 days (13.83%) have recorded the third lowest.

148 days in total (42.65%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

10,441,516 km2 (12 December [Day 0.9452])

Up 144,942 km2 (1.41%) from previous day.

Up 519,140 km2 (5.23%) over past seven days (daily average: 74,163 km2).

Up 1,098,905 km2 (32.82%) for December (daily average: 91,575 km2).

54,268 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

65,846 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

49,823 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

227,534 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest December to-date average.

9th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (2.02% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

23 days (6.65%) have recorded the second lowest.

35 days (10.12%) have recorded the third lowest.

65 days in total (18.79%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

11,711,670 km2 (18 December)

Up 27,211 km2 (.23%) from previous day.

Up 416,372 km2  (3.69%) over past seven days (daily average: 59,482 km2).

Up 1,159,925 km2  (26.13%) for December (daily average: 64,440 km2).

458,771 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

41,295 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

287,863 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

58,919 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

5th lowest December to-date average.

4th lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (18.18% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

36 days (10.23%) have recorded the second lowest.

48 days (13.64%) have recorded the third lowest.

148 days in total (42.05%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

10,779,371 km2 (17 December [Day 0.9589])

Up 70,235 km2 (.66%) from previous day.

Up 575,102 km2 (5.64%) over past seven days (daily average: 82,157 km2).

Up 1,436,760 km2 (42.91%) for December (daily average: 84,515 km2).

85,897 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

107,849 km2 above 2010s average for this date.

12,620 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

365,128 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest December to-date average.

8th lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (1.99% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

23 days (6.55%) have recorded the second lowest.

35 days (9.97%) have recorded the third lowest.

65 days in total (18.52%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to December 19th

The current 5 day mean is on 12,259,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,391,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -708,120km2, a decrease from -763,120km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +128,333km2, an increase from +63,000km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, up from 6th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +69.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +61.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +60.4k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +53.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +72.0k/day.



The increase so far this December is the 12th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of at least than 3.0k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 115.6k/day and an average gain requires a loss of 43.4k/day.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

12,004,952 km2 (25 December)

Up 27,679 km2 (.23%) from previous day.

Up 293,282 km2  (2.5%) over past seven days (daily average: 41,897 km2).

Up 1,453,207 km2  (32.74%) for December (daily average: 58,128 km2).

574,204 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

74,620 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

415,941 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

34,195 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

4th lowest December to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

64 days this year (17.83% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.

39 days (10.86%) have recorded the second lowest.

52 days (14.48%) have recorded the third lowest.

155 days in total (43.18%) have been among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

10,962,847 km2 (25 December [Day 0.9808])

Up 20,350 km2 (.19%) from previous day.

Up 148,351 km2 (1.37%) over past seven days (daily average: 21,193 km2).

Up 1,620,236 km2 (48.39%) for December (daily average: 64,809 km2).

412,037 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

61,945 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

356,508 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

350,468 km2 above 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest December to-date average.

3rd lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (1.95% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

23 days (6.41%) have recorded the second lowest.

37 days (10.31%) have recorded the third lowest.

67 days in total (18.66%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[jdallen]

While we've had a negative AO, and by some accounts a stronger polar vortex, I don't think this is our fathers Polar Vortex, which may account for the sluggish refreeze numbers Jim, BFTV and Espen are reporting.

As illustrated by this grab from Climate Reanalyzer, the polar low is consistently extending itself south into the North Atlantic.  Combine that with a mirrored persistent high pressure over Northern Europe, and we have a heat pump similar to last year's "cyclone cannon" shoving heat and moisture directly into the CAB.

There also seems to be similar flows (and low pressure) from the west, wandering back and forth from Western Alaska across the Bering into eastern Siberia.

The heat anomalies predicted during the next few days are more of the same, and pretty astonishing - temperatures shifting 40C or more in less than 48 hours across parts of the basin immediately north of Svalbard and Franz Josef!  Rain actually predicted in mid-winter north of 80!

We may not be seeing breakouts of arctic air into lower latitudes like last year, but heat is still being driven hard into the Arctic proper.  It's like it just isn't being given a chance to get that cold, that consistently.

The mind boggles.

[Neven]

Indeed, jdallen. I'm looking on with more interest this year, and hope to do some comparisons when this month is out. I can't say I'm bored, even though it isn't the melting season.

CT SIA had a century break yesterday. This isn't unusual for this time of year (2012 lost more than 200K in 3 days, and 2010 even experienced 2 century breaks in 3 days), but the current trend line is now 3rd lowest in the 2006-2015 record.

[jdallen]

Indeed, jdallen. I'm looking on with more interest this year, and hope to do some comparisons when this month is out. I can't say I'm bored, even though it isn't the melting season.

CT SIA had a century break yesterday. This isn't unusual for this time of year (2012 lost more than 200K in 3 days, and 2010 even experienced 2 century breaks in 3 days), but the current trend line is now 3rd lowest in the 2006-2015 record.

I'll look forward to your analysis.  Checking quickly also at the current state of winds via Earth.nullschool.net, It seems conditions for export via the Fram are still very good.

The 10hPA circulation also shows the seriously lopsided offset of the vortex to the SE into the North Atlantic.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-90.17,86.25,296/loc=-102.716,65.145

[johnm33]

 "The 10hPA circulation also shows the seriously lopsided offset of the vortex to the SE into the North Atlantic.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-90.17,86.25,296/loc=-102.716,65.145 "
Switching to 70 it looks remarkably close to a single cell
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-90.17,86.25,296/loc=-102.716,65.145

[jdallen]

 "The 10hPA circulation also shows the seriously lopsided offset of the vortex to the SE into the North Atlantic.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-90.17,86.25,296/loc=-102.716,65.145 "
Switching to 70 it looks remarkably close to a single cell
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-90.17,86.25,296/loc=-102.716,65.145

It is, no argument there. 

The point I was making is that its focus is offset SE to northern Greenland, and the circulation around that focus drives over half way to to the equator.  Rather than isolating air at high latitudes, its instead is both offset and eccentric, dipping into lower latitude heat and pulling it all the way to high northern latitudes; and quickly I might add.

edit:  I will add this; the 70hPa circulation shows a wind field over a thousand KM across, running from the Chukchi/Beaufort across Canada dipping all the way down to the US mid-Atlantic seaboard.  It then roars back up to the NE, dumping out in the Barents/Kara.  It is moving at an aggregate of about 150km/hr, which means air getting "sucked" into the pipe at the north is making the circuit in about 70-80 hours, along the way picking up heat from regions which are both already hot and receiving plenty of insolation. 

It is driving weather underneath it, which amplifies the flow of heat; That heat I think is *exactly* what we are seeing in the outrageous temperature anomalies on the GFS map/model.

The strong vortex is not limiting circulation between the Arctic and lower latitudes.  Quite to the contrary, it's turned into a high volume heat pump replacing heat lost from the arctic as fast as it radiates back out into space.  As a result, I don't think the Arctic oceans are losing heat as fast as they should.

QED, the SIA and SIE increases are stalling, as they did in 2014/2015, perhaps more strongly so.

[Jim Pettit]

ADS-NIPR Extent:

12,273,075 km2 (31 December)

Down 3,876 km2 (-.03%) from previous day.

Up 295,802 km2  (2.47%) over past seven days (daily average: 42,257 km2).

Up 1,721,330 km2  (38.78%) for December (daily average: 55,527 km2).

539,200 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

125,098 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

198,073 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

155,060 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

3rd lowest December average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

64 days in 2015 (17.53% year-to-date) recorded the lowest daily extent.

45 days (12.33%) recorded the second lowest.

52 days (14.25%) recorded the third lowest.

In total, 161 days (44.11%) of 2015 were among the lowest three on record.

CT Area:

11,084,475 km2 (30 December [Day 0.9945])

Up 112,373 km2 (1.02%) from previous day.

Up 44,867 km2 (.41%) over past seven days (daily average: 6,410 km2).

Up 1,741,863 km2 (52.02%) for December (daily average: 58,062 km2).

511,823 km2 below 2000s average for this date.

203,494 km2 below 2010s average for this date.

460,553 km2 below 2014 value for this date.

45,771 km2 below 2012 value for this date.

7th lowest December to-date average.

2nd lowest value for the date.

7 days this year (1.92% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.

25 days (6.87%) have recorded the second lowest.

39 days (10.71%) have recorded the third lowest.

71 days in total (19.51%) have been among the lowest three on record.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Double update this week.

Update for the week to December 26th

The current 5 day mean is on 12,565,600km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,696,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -775,320km2, an increase from -708,120km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -70,130km2, a decrease from +128,333km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, up from 5th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +43.7k/day, compared to the long term average of +53.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +72.0k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +54.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +52.7k/day.



The increase so far this December is the 18th largest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, a daily loss of at least 68.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 216.2k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 43.0k/day.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to January 2nd

The current 5 day mean is on 12,797,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,811,000km2.

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -921,490km2, an increase from -775,320km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -206,470km2, an increase from -70,13km2 last week. We're currently 2nd lowest on record, up from 4th lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was +33.2k/day, compared to the long term average of +54.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +52.7k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is +53.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +51.8k/day.



The increase so far this January is the smallest on record. To achieve the smallest monthly gain, an increase of less than 28.1k/day is required, while the largest monthly gain requires an increase of at least 61.6k/day and an average gain requires an increase of 45.0k/day.



The increase this December was the 18th largest on record, while the average extent was the 5th smallest on record.

[Pmt111500]

It looks like 2016 version of this thread will get a good start. I'd also like to connect the short heatwave in the Arctic during Christmas days to El Nino like most here. Too bad that it allowed some Siberian cold to enter here in Finland, I think I'll have to post a T-anomaly chart shortly to fb just to remind fb friends of the AGW. Thank you for continued updates here BFTV and Jim.

I thought that looking 5-6 months backward to El Nino situation might be in order to see what has happened in between to get this cold in here and compare it to the 1998 beginning here but I guess that sort of statistical stuff isn't appreciated in fb at least. Besides it's a bit too much stuff just now for me. Maybe later in spring, though it now looks like it's winter, it's only the 5th day of proper winter temperatures here this winter. Some people are already complaining about the cold (-18 C), some complain about the lack of snow, but no one complains about the ok driving conditions, though some un-genius person threw a bike rack on the rail tracks just yesterday, no one was physically harmed otherwise but the additional time they had to wait in the cold for the duration of the safety check of the local train. I can't understand that sort of people.

Sorry, for veering of topic. Let's see what the 2016 brings about. Hopefully there are less people like the one described above about, and have a good 2016 everyone. One can hope.

[Neven]

It looks like 2016 version of this thread will get a good start.

Thanks for reminding me, Pmt111500! Here's the 2016 thread.