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DavidR

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #400 on: June 06, 2015, 03:11:26 AM »
CT is late again. When they update, I expect the following changes:

Wed       10.072692
Thu -80.8  9.991925
Fri -161.5  9.830403
Sat -18.8  9.811610
Sun -104.5  9.707101


Kara area is dropping from a cliff.

So, after Sunday, we should see lowest ever CT area for the date ( or equal to )
According to  my figures this will only  put the 2015 CT Area about 5th lowest behind 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2014; although there is  less than 100 K km^2 between the five of them.
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jdallen

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #401 on: June 06, 2015, 09:10:54 AM »
CT is late again. When they update, I expect the following changes:

Wed       10.072692
Thu -80.8  9.991925
Fri -161.5  9.830403
Sat -18.8  9.811610
Sun -104.5  9.707101


Kara area is dropping from a cliff.

So, after Sunday, we should see lowest ever CT area for the date ( or equal to )
Yep.  About that.
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DavidR

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #402 on: June 06, 2015, 03:58:32 PM »
CT is late again. When they update, I expect the following changes:

Wed       10.072692
Thu -80.8  9.991925
Fri -161.5  9.830403
Sat -18.8  9.811610
Sun -104.5  9.707101


Kara area is dropping from a cliff.

So, after Sunday, we should see lowest ever CT area for the date ( or equal to )
Yep.  About that.
Well Cryosphere data has been updated but they seem to  have forgotten Thursday. It's a good thing we have Wipneus to tell us what  is really  going on.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #403 on: June 06, 2015, 05:17:48 PM »

Well Cryosphere data has been updated but they seem to  have forgotten Thursday. It's a good thing we have Wipneus to tell us what  is really  going on.

Yup, correct for the "values" column but the "normal's" are just pasted in and now not aligned anymore and the "anomalies" column is incorrect. 
Here is my version with today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.7  9.600101

The "torch" seems to be now in the Canadian Archipelago and in the CAB around the pole hole.

Siffy

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #404 on: June 06, 2015, 06:03:23 PM »

Well Cryosphere data has been updated but they seem to  have forgotten Thursday. It's a good thing we have Wipneus to tell us what  is really  going on.

Yup, correct for the "values" column but the "normal's" are just pasted in and now not aligned anymore and the "anomalies" column is incorrect. 
Here is my version with today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.7  9.600101

The "torch" seems to be now in the Canadian Archipelago and in the CAB around the pole hole.

Hmm, what is the numerical day value for Sunday and monday using the CT data set? 155 and 156?

plg

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #405 on: June 06, 2015, 07:42:37 PM »
...
Yup, correct for the "values" column but the "normal's" are just pasted in and now not aligned anymore and the "anomalies" column is incorrect. 
...
I have long been curious about the three columns in CT data, your comment seems to imply they should be labelled "anomaly", "value" and "normal"?

I have tried to find explanation for the file but so far no luck. Overall it appears that [anomaly = value - normal] with some jitter, but that does not explain what the "normal" value means.

Do you have some link to an explanation of the format? TIA.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #406 on: June 06, 2015, 11:47:19 PM »
CT is late again. When they update, I expect the following changes:

Wed       10.072692
Thu -80.8  9.991925
Fri -161.5  9.830403
Sat -18.8  9.811610
Sun -104.5  9.707101


Kara area is dropping from a cliff.

So, after Sunday, we should see lowest ever CT area for the date ( or equal to )
Not with those numbers from Wipneus. The most recent CT data--for Day 0.4247--leave 2015 in 8th place behind 2010 (in 1st), followed by 2011, 2014, 2008, 2012, 2007, and 2006. And some pretty remarkable things would have to happen to reach and maintain first place: Day 0.4247 saw the start of a 14-day period in 2012 in which area dropped by just under two million km2, maintaining an average daily drop of greater than 142k (the span saw 10 century drops, which included three double centuries).

Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #407 on: June 07, 2015, 04:19:43 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data, I calculate the following updates to CT-area:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.6  9.600135
Tue -136.2  9.463930


A massive drop of SIA in Laptev (-82k) and a slightly smaller one in the CAB (-50k) are the cause.

It looks that the first CT-area's drop has finally started.

DavidR

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #408 on: June 07, 2015, 04:41:47 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data, I calculate the following updates to CT-area:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.6  9.600135
Tue -136.2  9.463930


A massive drop of SIA in Laptev (-82k) and a slightly smaller one in the CAB (-50k) are the cause.

It looks that the first CT-area's drop has finally started.
And that does seem to take us in to  record low territory  for Area!!
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Phil.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #409 on: June 07, 2015, 04:46:30 PM »
...
Yup, correct for the "values" column but the "normal's" are just pasted in and now not aligned anymore and the "anomalies" column is incorrect. 
...
I have long been curious about the three columns in CT data, your comment seems to imply they should be labelled "anomaly", "value" and "normal"?

I have tried to find explanation for the file but so far no luck. Overall it appears that [anomaly = value - normal] with some jitter, but that does not explain what the "normal" value means.

Do you have some link to an explanation of the format? TIA.

The 'normal' value is the average over the period 1979-2008.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #410 on: June 07, 2015, 05:05:56 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data, I calculate the following updates to CT-area:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.6  9.600135
Tue -136.2  9.463930


A massive drop of SIA in Laptev (-82k) and a slightly smaller one in the CAB (-50k) are the cause.

It looks that the first CT-area's drop has finally started.
And that does seem to take us in to  record low territory  for Area!!


Well, that would be 2nd place by Tuesday (day 0.4329) behind 2010, but by only about 13k. However, as has been stated before, 2012 jumped off the cliff on 0.4329, dropping 1.872 million km2 over the next 11 days, so 2015 has some mighty big shoes to fill. (By way of comparison, 2014 decreased just 875k km2 over that same 11-day stretch--an obvious difference of about a million km2--while 2013 dropped by 1.254 million km2, and 2007 fell 1.303 million.)

Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #411 on: June 07, 2015, 05:27:28 PM »
...
Yup, correct for the "values" column but the "normal's" are just pasted in and now not aligned anymore and the "anomalies" column is incorrect. 
...
I have long been curious about the three columns in CT data, your comment seems to imply they should be labelled "anomaly", "value" and "normal"?

I have tried to find explanation for the file but so far no luck. Overall it appears that [anomaly = value - normal] with some jitter, but that does not explain what the "normal" value means.

Do you have some link to an explanation of the format? TIA.

I did not spot your question at first, sorry for that. The three values are graphed here:


As the legend says, the normals are  the means of 1979-2008, they are repeated every year in the data file.



BornFromTheVoid

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #412 on: June 07, 2015, 06:35:30 PM »
Update for the week to June 6th

The current 5 day mean is on 11,425,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,335,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -920,660km2, a decrease from -927,650km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -402,070km2, a decrease from -440,200km2 last week. We're currently lowest on record, the same as last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -59.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -60.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -65.3k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -44.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -82.5k/day.



The loss so far this June is the 15th largest on record. To achieve the largest monthly drop, a daily loss of at least 105.2k/day is required, while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 29.0k/day and an average drop requires a loss of 54.1k/day.



The loss in May was the 9th largest on record, while the average monthly extent was the lowest on record.



I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

jdallen

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #413 on: June 07, 2015, 06:58:28 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data, I calculate the following updates to CT-area:

Sat       9.811351
Sun -104.6  9.706756
Mon -106.6  9.600135
Tue -136.2  9.463930


A massive drop of SIA in Laptev (-82k) and a slightly smaller one in the CAB (-50k) are the cause.

It looks that the first CT-area's drop has finally started.
And that does seem to take us in to  record low territory  for Area!!


Well, that would be 2nd place by Tuesday (day 0.4329) behind 2010, but by only about 13k. However, as has been stated before, 2012 jumped off the cliff on 0.4329, dropping 1.872 million km2 over the next 11 days, so 2015 has some mighty big shoes to fill. (By way of comparison, 2014 decreased just 875k km2 over that same 11-day stretch--an obvious difference of about a million km2--while 2013 dropped by 1.254 million km2, and 2007 fell 1.303 million.)
Big shoes indeed. However, I think wipneus' numbers are starting to reflect the influence of all the thin, weak first year ice across the Kara, Laptev and ESS; ice which never thickened adequately during the winter.
Its currently being blasted by hot moist air streaming out of west Asia and Eastern Europe, which shows no sign of stopping.

Add the cyclone/dipole, and I think 2012 will get a run for its money.  2015 might not stay ahead in June, but will be set up with much weaker ice in July and August.  I'm pretty alarmed by the predicted weather.
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Buddy

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #414 on: June 07, 2015, 07:06:51 PM »
Central Arctic is going to get crushed this summer...... :-[
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #415 on: June 07, 2015, 10:45:39 PM »
Well Cryosphere data has been updated but they seem to  have forgotten Thursday. It's a good thing we have Wipneus to tell us what  is really  going on.

Indeed, the jump between 4164 and 4219 still hasn't been filled in (normally the difference between two days is 0027 or 0028). Things like this is probably what caused my spreadsheet to go wrong in the past, as I never look at the 'dates'.
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #416 on: June 08, 2015, 06:16:40 AM »
...
The 'normal' value is the average over the period 1979-2008.

...
As the legend says, the normals are  the means of 1979-2008, they are repeated every year in the data file.

Thanks, very helpful.
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Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #417 on: June 08, 2015, 04:25:49 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I expect CT to report the following area changes:

Sun       9.707218
Mon -106.6  9.600597
Tue -136.1  9.464449
Wed -63.5  9.400


In case you wondered: ESS contributes -43k to the Wednesday number.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #418 on: June 09, 2015, 01:23:21 PM »
ADS-NIPR Extent:
10,590,546 km2 (08 June)
Down 3,351,514 km2 (24.04%) from 2015 maximum of 13,942,060 km2 on 15 February.
7,413,091 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Up 1,662 km2 from previous day.
Down 255,239 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -36,463 km2).
Down 288,025 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -36,003 km2).
713,374 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
254,089 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
404,137 km2 below 2014 value for this date.
254,202 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
Lowest June to-date average.
Lowest value for the date.
62 days this year (38.99% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
31 days (19.5%) have recorded the second lowest.
27 days (16.98%) have recorded the third lowest.
120 days (75.47%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
9,463,663 km2 (08 June [Day 0.4329])
Down 3,810,892 km2 (28.71%) from 2015 maximum of 13,274,555 km2 on 17 February [Day 0.1288].
7,229,654 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 136,745 km2 from previous day.
Down 577,327 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -82,475 km2).
Down 672,917 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -84,115 km2).
449,062 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
96,380 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
147,139 km2 below 2014 value for this date.
50,195 km2 below 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest June to-date average.
2nd lowest value for the date.
7 days this year (4.4% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
19 days (11.95%) have recorded the second lowest.
28 days (17.61%) have recorded the third lowest.
54 days in total (33.96%) have been among the lowest three on record.

NOTE: for those of you keeping track, the CT SIA number for Day 0.4192 has been restored: 10.0149279





Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #419 on: June 09, 2015, 06:38:01 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I expect CT to report the following area changes:

Tue       9.463663
Wed -63.5  9.400168
Thu -11.5  9.388671

For Thursday, just a small decline (which would have been a small uptick without the -15k drop of lake ice).
The increases are in CAB, Hudson, Laptev, and Beaufort. Declines in Baffin, Kara and ESS.
 

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #420 on: June 10, 2015, 04:23:24 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I expect CT to report another quiet day:

Wed       9.400280
Thu -11.5  9.388799
Fri -16.1  9.372721


Friday: biggest uptick ESS (+26.3k) and biggest drop Barents (-19.7k).

Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #421 on: June 11, 2015, 04:16:57 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I expect CT to report another not so exiting daily change:

Wed       9.400280
Thu -11.5  9.388799
Fri -16.1  9.372733
Sat -29.6  9.343161


Highlights of the Saturday change are a -49k5 drop in Kara, nearly compensated by an uptick in the CAB of +42k2.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #422 on: June 12, 2015, 05:09:30 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data I expect CT to report a near century on Sunday:

Thu       9.388636
Fri -16.1  9.372570
Sat -29.5  9.343038
Sun -98.8  9.244221


That is with the help of lake ice (-17k4), regions with high losses are Kara (-46k), CAA (-28k9) and Beaufort (-20k8). Laptev increased by +17k6.

NSIDC extent saw an uptick today (+64k), lots of false coastal ice in the Pacific.

Jim Pettit

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #423 on: June 13, 2015, 03:40:01 PM »
ADS-NIPR Extent:
10,457,859 km2 (12 June)
Down 3,484,201 km2 (24.99%) from 2015 maximum of 13,942,060 km2 on 15 February.
7,280,404 km2 above record minimum extent of 3,177,455 km2 (16 September 2012).
Down 47,973 km2 from previous day.
Down 159,768 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -22,824 km2).
Down 420,712 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -35,059 km2).
666,864 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
124,877 km2 below 2010s average for this date.
327,758 km2 below 2014 value for this date.
115,672 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
Lowest June to-date average.
3rd lowest value for the date.
64 days this year (39.26% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily extent.
32 days (19.63%) have recorded the second lowest.
28 days (17.18%) have recorded the third lowest.
124 days (76.07%) in total have been among the three lowest on record.


CT Area:
9,342,906 km2 (12 June [Day 0.4438])
Down 3,931,649 km2 (29.62%) from 2015 maximum of 13,274,555 km2 on 17 February [Day 0.1288].
7,108,897 km2 above record minimum area of 2,234,010 km2 (14 September 2012).
Down 29,539 km2 from previous day.
Down 468,445 km2 over past seven days (daily average: -66,921 km2).
Down 793,675 km2 for the month of June (daily average: -66,140 km2).
329,323 km2 below 2000s average for this date.
148,335 km2 above 2010s average for this date.
18 km2 above 2014 value for this date.
658,170 km2 above 2012 value for this date.
7th lowest June to-date average.
8th lowest value for the date.
7 days this year (4.29% year-to-date) have recorded the lowest daily area.
19 days (11.66%) have recorded the second lowest.
28 days (17.18%) have recorded the third lowest.
54 days in total (33.13%) have been among the lowest three on record.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #424 on: June 13, 2015, 04:56:30 PM »
And on Monday CT-area will accelerate further:

Sat       9.342906
Sun -93.0  9.249906
Mon -143.4  9.106457

(CAB -55k, Barents -29k, CAA -28k)

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #425 on: June 13, 2015, 05:15:58 PM »
And on Monday CT-area will accelerate further:

Sat       9.342906
Sun -93.0  9.249906
Mon -143.4  9.106457

(CAB -55k, Barents -29k, CAA -28k)

Seems like the cliff is finally there!

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #426 on: June 14, 2015, 03:04:39 PM »
And on Monday CT-area will accelerate further:

Sat       9.342906
Sun -93.0  9.249906
Mon -143.4  9.106457

(CAB -55k, Barents -29k, CAA -28k)

And that would leave 2015 in 8th place behind (in order) 2012 (by about 700k), 2010, 2007, 2011, 2006, 2014, and 2008. IOW, in the most recent ten year span, only 2013 and 2009 have been higher for the date.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #427 on: June 14, 2015, 03:28:35 PM »
And that would leave 2015 in 8th place behind (in order) 2012 (by about 700k), 2010, 2007, 2011, 2006, 2014, and 2008. IOW, in the most recent ten year span, only 2013 and 2009 have been higher for the date.

Hycom shows a big area of thin ice that looks destined to fail soon, but then again I don't know how to reconcile Hycom's version of the ice conditions with PIOMAS, which still shows 2015 with about 5% more ice than 2014:

Buddy

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #428 on: June 14, 2015, 03:45:28 PM »
I'll stick my neck out a little further after looking at the two views (2015 vs 2014) you just posted.

1)  Look at the MYI "strip" north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland north coast.  The MYI in 2015 if NOTICEABLY thinner (especially the north Greenland coast).  It is NOT due to warm air temperatures in Greenland this year....it is the warmer water.

2)  Look at the Chukchi Sea and the Arctic north of the Chukchi Sea (the area you pointed out).  If you look at the COMBINED AREA of (a) no ice PLUS (b) thin ice.....the area this year is SIGNIFICANTLY greater than the combined area last year.  A BIG DROPOFF could be looming in coming weeks.

3)  Again....looking at the combined area of no ice + thin ice......the area along the Russian side of the Arctic is significantly weaker than last year....combined with warmer waters intruding further into the Arctic Ocean this year compared to last year.

I think we could indeed set a new record low of extent this coming September......yes lower than 2012.  Definitely NOT rooting for it....but everything is "lining up":

a)  snow cover is gone
b)  significant weak areas all around the Arctic that are "set up" to melt out
c)  warm anomalies around the Arctic

Not good.......
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Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #429 on: June 14, 2015, 06:01:18 PM »
My estimate for CT-area gives another century on Tuesday.

Sun       9.250292
Mon -143.5  9.106802
Tue -119.3  8.987481


For Tuesday Chukchi (-32k), CAA (-30k), ESS (-20k) and Laptev (-16k) declined most. The CAB sings out of tune with a +25k uptick.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #430 on: June 15, 2015, 10:29:52 AM »
Keeping an eye on the ADS-NIPR (Jaxa) AMSR2 sea ice thickness/melting map, melting area has greatly increased in the last few day. With today's map the total area in  melting has risen above 2013 and 2014 levels. Area's affected include the Canadian Archipelago, the "Barents Bite" and today an explosion on the Pacific side (Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS and bordering part of the CAB).
In area only the CAA is making a clear nosedive, perhaps in a few days other regions will follow?


Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #431 on: June 15, 2015, 04:49:09 PM »
Well, area as calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration certainly sees it that way. From that I expect a fat triple century next Wednesday:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.0  8.646564

The regions on the Pacific side that I mentioned in the previous post are responsible: CAB(-132k), ESS(-48k), Beaufort (-30k) and Chukchi (-27k). Add an active Hudson (-57k) and Kara (-21k)  to secure the third century.

oren

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #432 on: June 15, 2015, 05:14:42 PM »
Well, area as calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration certainly sees it that way. From that I expect a fat triple century next Wednesday:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.0  8.646564

The regions on the Pacific side that I mentioned in the previous post are responsible: CAB(-132k), ESS(-48k), Beaufort (-30k) and Chukchi (-27k). Add an active Hudson (-57k) and Kara (-21k)  to secure the third century.

Fat triple century indeed. Impressive.

Neven

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #433 on: June 15, 2015, 05:47:17 PM »
A quick glance at my CT SIA spreadsheet tells me a drop this big (300K+) hasn't happened since 2008. Impressive indeed.
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #434 on: June 15, 2015, 05:52:32 PM »
As this animation of the NSIDC sea ice concentration shows it is not only the Pacific side, but also a broad range in what has been called the "Barents Bite".

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #435 on: June 15, 2015, 06:55:54 PM »
Update for the week to June 13th

The current 5 day mean is on 11,175,800km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,076,000km2.
The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -859,890km2, a decrease from -920,660km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -73,930km2, a decrease from -402,070km2 last week. We're currently 4th lowest on record, down from lowest last week.



The average daily change over the last 7 days was -35.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -44.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -82.5k/day.
The average long term change over the next week is -52.6k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -81.2k/day.



The loss so far this June is the 18th smallest on record. To achieve the largest monthly drop, a daily loss of at least 133.8k/day is required, while the smallest drop requires a loss of less than 26.2k/day and an average drop requires a loss of 61.7k/day.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Tor Bejnar

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #436 on: June 15, 2015, 07:27:01 PM »
Continued thanks BFTV for these summary updates.

I note that the 'minimum extent loss' line is made up of mostly small segments of slow loss  whereas the 'maximum extent loss' line is dominated by much larger segments of high loss; I'll hazard a guess that post-2006 years dominate the 'maximum extent loss' line.  (I recall you identified some of the years for some of the record-holding years.)

I'm sure this is due to the changing climate.  :D
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #437 on: June 16, 2015, 04:44:08 AM »
Well, area as calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration certainly sees it that way. From that I expect a fat triple century next Wednesday:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.0  8.646564

The regions on the Pacific side that I mentioned in the previous post are responsible: CAB(-132k), ESS(-48k), Beaufort (-30k) and Chukchi (-27k). Add an active Hudson (-57k) and Kara (-21k)  to secure the third century.

Thanks for you work Wipneus but when you say next Wednesday, do you mean the 17th or the 24th?

did an episode on the difference. 

Maybe include day number (of the year)? then it would be easier for dummies like me.  CT uses day number.
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #438 on: June 16, 2015, 05:16:10 AM »
Well, area as calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration certainly sees it that way. From that I expect a fat triple century next Wednesday:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.0  8.646564

The regions on the Pacific side that I mentioned in the previous post are responsible: CAB(-132k), ESS(-48k), Beaufort (-30k) and Chukchi (-27k). Add an active Hudson (-57k) and Kara (-21k)  to secure the third century.

Thanks for you work Wipneus but when you say next Wednesday, do you mean the 17th or the 24th?

did an episode on the difference. 

Maybe include day number (of the year)? then it would be easier for dummies like me.  CT uses day number.
Pretty clear to me he's talking about the 17th.
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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #439 on: June 16, 2015, 05:40:59 AM »
Well, area as calculated from NSIDC sea ice concentration certainly sees it that way. From that I expect a fat triple century next Wednesday:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.0  8.646564

The regions on the Pacific side that I mentioned in the previous post are responsible: CAB(-132k), ESS(-48k), Beaufort (-30k) and Chukchi (-27k). Add an active Hudson (-57k) and Kara (-21k)  to secure the third century.

Thanks for you work Wipneus but when you say next Wednesday, do you mean the 17th or the 24th?

did an episode on the difference. 

Maybe include day number (of the year)? then it would be easier for dummies like me.  CT uses day number.
Stephen,
Wipneus calculates the area from the NSIDC data that CT uses in their calculations.  CT release their data 2 days, (or more) after NSIDC releases it. He has got the calculation so accurate that there is rarely even 1000 km^2 variation between his calculations and theirs. Also  note that  the day given is the day CT releases the data the measurements would have been taken on Sunday  and released as extent data on Monday. 
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Wipneus

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #440 on: June 16, 2015, 07:57:38 AM »
Right. Apologies for the ambiguous (if not wrong) "next" Wednesday. I will try to be more clear about this in the future.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #441 on: June 16, 2015, 08:07:22 AM »
It's funny. Why don't CT publish their results 2 days earlier? If Wipneus can, so can they...

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #442 on: June 16, 2015, 08:15:31 AM »
Updated the AMSR2  thickness/melting (from ADS-NIPR Jaxa) animation.

Again the melting area increased in several regions. Hudson and ESS most clearly. Melting crossed the "pole hole".

Jaxa and UH AMSR2 area have still not responded to the sudden increase in melting (as defined by these maps). You can see this for example here

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #443 on: June 16, 2015, 02:50:44 PM »
A quick glance at my CT SIA spreadsheet tells me a drop this big (300K+) hasn't happened since 2008. Impressive indeed.
That's correct. For the record, there were two monster single-day drops that year: 396k in late April, and 437k in early May. The largest one-day decrease since then was 287k in the first week of June last year.

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #444 on: June 16, 2015, 04:31:05 PM »
From today's NSIDC sea ice concentration data update, I calculate the CT-area updates of the coming few day's:

Mon       9.106157
Tue -119.6  8.986600
Wed -340.2  8.646372
Thu -71.6  8.574772

After Wednesday the drop on Thursday will be much smaller. Regarding the small extent uptick of (NSIDC calculation +4k6), the melting effect is still very much active.
Regional the fastest area declines are in Hudson (-36k), Chukchi(-21k) and CAB (-19k).

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #445 on: June 16, 2015, 04:40:35 PM »
A quick glance at my CT SIA spreadsheet tells me a drop this big (300K+) hasn't happened since 2008. Impressive indeed.
That's correct. For the record, there were two monster single-day drops that year: 396k in late April, and 437k in early May. The largest one-day decrease since then was 287k in the first week of June last year.

The triple century follows two centuries (-143.5k and -119.6k) with a combined loss of over 600k in three days. How rare is that?

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #446 on: June 16, 2015, 05:27:41 PM »
Wipneus, Thank you for the beautiful graphics. The retreat of the ice edge and the two fingers it forms on either side of the Herald Shoal ( Chukchi Sea ) are forming in the animation above. The retreat is a full month earlier than in 92-94 as documented in the Martin + Drucker '97 paper on Taylor columns.

  http://polar.ocean.washington.edu/taylor/chukchi_shoals.html

« Last Edit: June 16, 2015, 07:13:36 PM by Bruce Steele »

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #447 on: June 16, 2015, 05:46:51 PM »
Slater Probabilistic Ice Extent (SPIE) 50-day projection is sure responding to something that is happening 'now'!

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #448 on: June 16, 2015, 06:03:01 PM »
Tor Bejnar: not a too dramatic pic from Slater if you ask me. From August an until the minimum the Arctic loses roughly 2 million km2. That would yield a minima about 4,5-5 million km2. Of course, I would like to know earlier years minima/extent for the same time period.

Best, LMV

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Re: 2015 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #449 on: June 16, 2015, 06:18:24 PM »
Tor Bejnar: I would like to add the following link to get a better picture of Slaters historical forecasts versus observations: http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/Slater_AGU_2013_poster.pdf

//LMV