Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: A must read  (Read 21254 times)

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #50 on: January 29, 2018, 08:35:24 AM »
Cereberus is much bigger than just Remington. They have their fingers in all manner of pies. Thus their strings encumber many politicians.

sidd

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #51 on: January 29, 2018, 03:32:02 PM »
Susan I think you have a reply coming but I have to say that there are too many ways to interpret your post and I do not understand what you are trying to say.

I fully understand what a neo-liberal is.  I also think that differentiating between main stream Democrats and Republicans is an exercise in futility.  I see little to any value anymore in either of the big parties.  Both follow some form of BAU and have no real intention of trying to deal with climate change and carrying capacity issues.  Existential problems both.  Since both parties are fully wedded to doing everything they can to maintain current US levels of standards of living and global dominance they are both bankrupt.  If either of them steps up and starts to advocate and implement programs which have a realistic chance of fixing things I will be right there.  But it ain't going to happen.

So watching politics is sort of like following the Super Bowl.  It is just for amusements sake.  We are just riding the descent into collapse like the band on the Titanic.

BTW I have a pitchfork in the shed too :)





We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #53 on: January 29, 2018, 04:41:29 PM »
An interesting follow on to post #43 above.

Note the source

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/underestimating-american-collapse/
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Susan Anderson

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 231
Re: A must read
« Reply #54 on: January 29, 2018, 10:58:56 PM »
@JimD, well, I kind of get what you're going after, and to some extent we will have to agree to disagree, while in others I'd say we agree more than you're likely to acknowledge. I'm an old-fashioned Democrat, and for a good Democrat you've likely never heard of I'd recommend Ed Markey, who along with Elizabeth Warren, represents me here in Massachusetts. He's a serious environmentalist, as is his wife, a former admiral (!).

If you have a pitchfork for me in case the guillotine doesn't work, that's too bad.

I do not agree that there is no difference between Democrats and Republicans, and I've been politically active all my life, as was my mother before me (and father).

I thought Bernie's position on guns might get you to realize that nobody is a saint and we have to work with the world the way it is. People from abroad sometimes have some odd ideas about us. TerryM and I came to an agreement some time ago when I provided a list of what I stand for, and we realized it was the means, not the ideals, that separated us. My opinion, demanding perfection enables the enemy. But we may be f***ed anyway give the slow pace of progress at the best of times.

I'll try to come back and correct some of my writing failures later, but that's a quick synopsis of how your response got me.

Reagan was the original neoliberal. Democrats are not by and large neoliberals. The modern locution "progressive" is what I used to call "liberal" when Republicans used the "L" word as an insult. Tacking on "neo" makes it sound like its opposite, which is why I brought up Reagan. He and his people originated a lot of this rot.
« Last Edit: January 29, 2018, 11:22:51 PM by Susan Anderson »

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #55 on: January 30, 2018, 12:34:01 AM »
Susan

It is interesting that you seem to think I would not understand that no one is perfect and that I need it explained to me what a neoliberal is  and what a progressive is.

To me you seem a little idealistic and somewhat naive.   And that you are missing what I am saying and painting it with your interpretation of what I should be saying.

While it is true that at the registered party affiliation level one finds some distinctions between R's and D's that is not what I am talking about (though the differences are not huge depending on the specific subgroup one is talking about).  I am talking about the leadership.  All major Democratic leaders are full fledged neoliberals who are beholden to Wall Street and/or 1%er interests.  If you are going to argue that with me then we really do have little to say with each other as all one has to do to see this is the case is to follow the money and their policies.  Clinton, Pelosi, Schumer, Biden, Obama, etc are paid in full members of this group.

That these people do not care about and will not do any meaningful thing for working class people is shown by their long years of actions as opposed to their yakking during campaigns.  It is also shown by their years long effort to do everything in their power to disempower anyone who actually does try and take care of regular people.

You may be an old fashioned Democrat but they are not.  The policies of Obama were almost an exact mirror of those of Bush 1.  The national security strategy of all of them has been in complete sync with what we now call the moderate wing of the Republican Party and we used to call the conservative wing.  They are empire builders and rush to find a way to exert military force.  Clinton is the poster child for this type of behavior.

These people need to be swept into the dustbin of history.  They will never take meaningful action to truly fix the inequities in American society as they are paid for by the 1%.  Being in those pockets also means they will never take actions to solve things like climate change which could result in a diminishment of US power and wealth.  Which has to happen if we are to solve that problem.  The phony fight between the right and left over climate change is just a parsing of different forms of BAU.  It is clear to anyone who wants to look that what the Republicans want to do will not solve the problem.  But the powers there know that perfectly well.  I understand that and have tried to explain to folks here many times what they are intending.  There is some logic in their approach in an extreme sense.  What I find galling with the Democrats and all the phony green BAU people as I call them is that they market their policies and actions as if they will actually solve the problem when any logical, rational, mathematical look at those policies will clearly show they will not work.  So they are lying just as much as the other side. 

I could go on but have no real interest in it as I don't expect anyone any more to pursue meaningful policies and the realist in me never has expected a solution - just that bit of the young idealist left in me from long ago still hopes.  Unfortunately we have already passed most of timelines which we needed to meet to prevent disaster - so disaster is what it is going to be.
 Human nature is pretty inflexible and as a species we have never demonstrated the kind of ability to deal with a situation like this.  So we won't.  We will continue to behave exactly how we have behaved for the last 10,000 years. 

Don't be so worried about my pitchfork.  Long before I make it to Mass someone here in AZ will be certain to gun me down if for no other reason than to get their hands on my very cool assault rifle.  :P



We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 464
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: A must read
« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2018, 01:15:47 AM »
Susan,

You shouldn't be too concerned about survivalists with pitchforks and/or assault rifles.  The real concern is the far-right's push for a police state, as discussed in the linked Salon article.

Best,
ASLR

Title: "Far-right media pundits are now calling for a police state"

https://www.salon.com/2018/01/29/far-right-pundits-are-now-calling-for-the-death-of-trumps-opponents/

Extract: "Some of Trump’s critics feared he might become a dictator. On the radical right, his fans are now hoping he will

While he is notoriously stubborn and self-assured, President Donald Trump is also famous for being susceptible to the power of suggestion.

Given how the president and his close admirers tend to bring out the worst in each other, it’s particularly concerning how the most vehemently pro-Trump media outlets are going far beyond the sycophantic blather of “Fox & Friends” to outright calls for the president to jail or even execute people he doesn’t like -- particularly if they happen to be investigating connections between Trump's 2016 campaign and Russia.

People have mocked the idea that Trump could become a dictator. What's clear is that many people he likes are telling him to become one."
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 01:21:44 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #57 on: January 30, 2018, 04:25:52 AM »
I fear the Police State is already upon us. When is the last time that you remember, when any National Police Force attempted to cut short the term of a President, or a Prime Minister?



It's never occured in Canada, Britain, France or Germany, to the best of my knowledge. Perhaps someone more familiar with the postwar history of Europe could chime in?


Mueller wasn't even vetted by the House or the Senate AFAIK, but somehow his power has grown to exceed that of the President's. Comey, with his very public on-off-on investigation into Clinton had some effect on the election's outcome. When is the last time that a National Police Force injected itself into an election in such a manner?


Terry

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #58 on: January 30, 2018, 07:15:11 AM »
Mmmm. Harold Wilson. BBC had a documentary on it. On youtube.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=y6v1VxB5Lss

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harold_Wilson_conspiracy_theories#Alleged_1974_military_coup_plot

The only bit of the story that surprises me is that Cudlipp states that Mountbatten declined to take part, although that was possibly because Zuckerman had already stated it was treason and had walked out. But as someone once told Mountbatten, "Dickie, you're so crooked, you could eat a nail and shit out a corkscrew."

I just remembered another one: Gough Whitlam.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/23/gough-whitlam-1975-coup-ended-australian-independence

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2014/03/24/boyc-m24.html


Those two are just the ones that came immediately to mind. No doubt there are more, which are yet concealed.

sidd




« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 07:24:36 AM by sidd »

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #59 on: January 30, 2018, 10:11:45 AM »
There was an attempt in Canada when the CIA tortured a Canadian ambassador to death. The coup as I recall was not successful.


We appear to be living in a post-democratic era.


Terry

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 464
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: A must read
« Reply #60 on: January 30, 2018, 05:07:48 PM »
Terry,

A coup is not required to form a police state.  The linked article makes it clear that the Nazi party "… gradually exerted more and more repressive controls over its people in the lead-up to World War II.  In addition to the SS and the Gestapo, the Nazi police state used the judiciary to assert control over the population from the 1930s until the end of the war in 1945."

If you can't appreciate that Trump is following a similar path (politicizing the police/DOJ and the judiciary) to a police state, then I hope that you live long enough to learn something from modern history.

Title: "Police state"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_state

Extract: "Nazi Germany emerged from an originally democratic process, yet gradually exerted more and more repressive controls over its people in the lead-up to World War II. In addition to the SS and the Gestapo, the Nazi police state used the judiciary to assert control over the population from the 1930s until the end of the war in 1945."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #61 on: January 30, 2018, 05:45:00 PM »
Terry,

A coup is not required to form a police state.  The linked article makes it clear that the Nazi party "… gradually exerted more and more repressive controls over its people in the lead-up to World War II.  In addition to the SS and the Gestapo, the Nazi police state used the judiciary to assert control over the population from the 1930s until the end of the war in 1945."

If you can't appreciate that Trump is following a similar path (politicizing the police/DOJ and the judiciary) to a police state, then I hope that you live long enough to learn something from modern history.

Title: "Police state"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_state

Extract: "Nazi Germany emerged from an originally democratic process, yet gradually exerted more and more repressive controls over its people in the lead-up to World War II. In addition to the SS and the Gestapo, the Nazi police state used the judiciary to assert control over the population from the 1930s until the end of the war in 1945."


Total agreement!
I've watched coups from Chile to Cuba to Ukraine & a police state may or may not result.
The police in the US however have been out of control for much longer than the last year.
Terry

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6101
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1194
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: A must read
« Reply #62 on: January 30, 2018, 06:10:59 PM »
Terry,

A coup is not required to form a police state.  The linked article makes it clear that the Nazi party "… gradually exerted more and more repressive controls over its people in the lead-up to World War II.  In addition to the SS and the Gestapo, the Nazi police state used the judiciary to assert control over the population from the 1930s until the end of the war in 1945."

If you can't appreciate that Trump is following a similar path (politicizing the police/DOJ and the judiciary) to a police state, then I hope that you live long enough to learn something from modern history.

Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Egypt are all following Plato's route from Democracy to Tyranny, and some have used Trump's words - " The media is the enemy of the people" - and the Daily Mail's (UK) words - "the Judiciary is the enemy of the people".

In the USA, perhaps the two most significant happenings in recent years have been jerry-mandering of political boundaries and allowing super-PACS to take over the democratic process.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 464
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: A must read
« Reply #63 on: January 30, 2018, 07:01:43 PM »
Turkey, Hungary, Poland, Egypt are all following Plato's route from Democracy to Tyranny, and some have used Trump's words - " The media is the enemy of the people" - and the Daily Mail's (UK) words - "the Judiciary is the enemy of the people".

In the USA, perhaps the two most significant happenings in recent years have been jerry-mandering of political boundaries and allowing super-PACS to take over the democratic process.

All good points (and I can add voter suppression laws), and I also note that both Israel and Philippine are democracies that appear headed towards police states without the need of a coup:

Title: "Rebranding Israel as a State Headed for Fascism"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/bradley-burston/rebranding-israel-as-a-st_b_580538.html

Extract: "Wrote Boaz Okun, the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronot’s legal affairs commentator and a retired Israeli judge, of Israel’s ban on Noam Chomsky: “The decision to shut up Professor Chomsky is a decision to shut down freedom in the state of Israel.

“I’m not speaking of the stupidity of supplying ammunition to those who claim that Israel is fascist,” Okun wrote, “rather, of our fear that we may actually be turning that way.”

&
Title: "Philippine administration steps up police-state measures"

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/03/31/phil-m31.html

Extract: "At the instigation of the administration of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, steps have been taken this month to intensify the so-called war on drugs which is being used to prepare police state measures against the working class."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Susan Anderson

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 231
Re: A must read
« Reply #64 on: January 30, 2018, 08:09:54 PM »
@JimD, thanks for the clarification. Your interpretation of what I said is as inaccurate as mine of you, so perhaps we're even, except for the false character reading, but even there I may be equally guilty.

Quote
Anthony Euwer
As a beauty I'm not a great star,
There are others more handsome by far.

—But my face—I don't mind it,
—Because I'm behind it—
It's the people in front that I jar.

It is largely useless without extended communication to support either of our points of view, and even then I suspect you would stubbornly stick to your opinion that victims are perps. I'll continue to insist that there is almost no equivalence between liberals and neoliberals, and that this result of trolling is unhelpful at best. As we fight with each other, the real criminals are laughing all the way to their highly armed banks and hidden assets and poisoning our beautiful earth.

I am assured that you are assured of my good intentions, and you have reassured me as to the same, and no doubt you will return to explain how you are right and I am wrong. Women are used to this, though perhaps that's additionally unfair of me.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 464
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: A must read
« Reply #65 on: January 30, 2018, 08:50:46 PM »
I am assured that you are assured of my good intentions, and you have reassured me as to the same, and no doubt you will return to explain how you are right and I am wrong. Women are used to this, though perhaps that's additionally unfair of me.

It looks like women power could be US's secret weapon, if were are smart enough to use it:

Extract: "New research reveals $1.6trillion boost to US economy of more opportunities for women"

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/women-jobs-us-america-trillion-dollar-economy-norway-a8102161.html

Extract: "Only half of American women are active members of the workforce, according to research by Standard and Poor's

Researchers said 44 per cent of American women were participating in the workforce in 1972, a similar rate to that of Norway.

However, by 2016, the world’s largest economy had fallen behind - around 65 per cent of Norwegian women were employed, compared to just half of their US counterparts.

Standard & Poor's estimates if women in America had taken up work at the same rate, the US economy would today be $1.6trillion bigger, an extra $5,000 for every person in the country."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Martin Gisser

  • Guest
Re: A must read
« Reply #66 on: January 31, 2018, 10:44:43 PM »
I also think that differentiating between main stream Democrats and Republicans is an exercise in futility.
I'm sick an tired of this stupid excuse. You folks seriously deserve an evil clown president like Trump. (But then, the planet can't afford it. Else I would just laugh at your "great nation"). Hillary wont be any better, yeah yeah, blah blah. (BTW, who was the first to advocate developed-world healthcarei in the U.S.A.?) You 'Merricans seem to be blind to the outrageous stupid and bullshitting and corruption that stands for the so-called GOP in Washington.

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1393
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 171
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: A must read
« Reply #67 on: February 01, 2018, 01:47:34 AM »
I also think that differentiating between main stream Democrats and Republicans is an exercise in futility.
I'm sick an tired of this stupid excuse. You folks seriously deserve an evil clown president like Trump. (But then, the planet can't afford it. Else I would just laugh at your "great nation"). Hillary wont be any better, yeah yeah, blah blah. (BTW, who was the first to advocate developed-world healthcarei in the U.S.A.?) You 'Merricans seem to be blind to the outrageous stupid and bullshitting and corruption that stands for the so-called GOP in Washington.

Yep.  At least this American sees a massive and important difference.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17278
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 464
  • Likes Given: 218
Re: A must read
« Reply #68 on: February 01, 2018, 04:50:16 PM »
I also think that differentiating between main stream Democrats and Republicans is an exercise in futility.
I'm sick an tired of this stupid excuse. You folks seriously deserve an evil clown president like Trump. (But then, the planet can't afford it. Else I would just laugh at your "great nation"). Hillary wont be any better, yeah yeah, blah blah. (BTW, who was the first to advocate developed-world healthcarei in the U.S.A.?) You 'Merricans seem to be blind to the outrageous stupid and bullshitting and corruption that stands for the so-called GOP in Washington.
Yep.  At least this American sees a massive and important difference.


The linked 'The Hill' op/ed piece discusses evidence that the 'Deep State' no longer represents the 'establishment' (ie mainstream Democrats and Republicans) but rather the Trump administration:

Title: "Davis: ‘Deep state’ existed in ’16 – but it elected Trump"

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/371755-davis-deep-state-existed-in-16-but-it-elected-trump

Extract: "The visible tip of the iceberg was James Comey’s Oct. 28, 2016, letter to Congress. All data proves that, but for that letter 11 days from Election Day, Hillary Clinton wins the presidency.

But evidence suggests that below that iceberg tip was, in effect, a “deep state” campaign, comprising certain active or former FBI agents, mostly from the powerful New York City office, former NYC Mayor and pathological Hillary hater Rudy Giuliani, and the vast right-wing media complex (amplified by the Russian government and bots)."

« Last Edit: February 02, 2018, 11:39:55 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #69 on: February 02, 2018, 08:38:56 PM »
A rare instance of walking the talk.

http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/43349-do-we-really-need-to-fly-meet-the-climate-scientists-walking-their-talk

2 round trip plane flights here in the last 10 years. 
 
one to my brothers funeral
one to my daughters wedding
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #70 on: February 03, 2018, 04:25:11 AM »
One of my favorite authors.  Andrew Bacevich

Quote
How We Got Donald Trump
(And How We Might Have Avoided Him)
By Andrew J. Bacevich

The present arrives out of a past that we are too quick to forget, misremember, or enshroud in myth.  Yet like it or not, the present is the product of past choices.  Different decisions back then might have yielded very different outcomes in the here-and-now.  Donald Trump ascended to the presidency as a consequence of myriad choices that Americans made (or had made for them) over the course of decades. Although few of those were made with Trump in mind, he is the result.

Where exactly did Trump come from?  How are we to account for his noxious presence as commander-in-chief and putative Leader of the Free World? ...

....So who’s at fault? Ultimately, we -- the American people -- must accept a considerable share of the responsibility. This is one buck that can’t be passed.

Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda

So what follows is a review of roads taken (and not) ultimately leading to the demoralizing presidency of Donald Trump, along with a little speculation on how different choices might have resulted in a decidedly different present......

http://www.tomdispatch.com/post/176379/tomgram%3A_andrew_bacevich%2C_american_paths%2C_chosen_and_not_%281989-2018%29/#more
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #71 on: February 07, 2018, 04:40:27 AM »
A reasoned look back. Not necessarily the instances I'd have picked to illustrate Trump's path to the presidency, but none that I'd argue against.
Vietnam, and the protests that ended it, were a necessary part of making this presidency, as was the Koch Brothers financing of the Tea Party.


The post electoral period owes more to "The Tailgunner", any number of "color revolutions', and "The Bill and Monica Show". I hope it somehow ends with a return to some semblance of democracy, but fear this is but the opening act for Trump II, and Trump III.


Interesting times are upon us,
Terry

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #72 on: February 07, 2018, 05:17:51 AM »
PBS is airing a show called "The Gilded Age" that traces historical roots of plutocrat takeover of US government more than a hundred years ago. Quite refreshing, PBS has been more an apologist for Empire of late.

I crosspost to the "Economic Inequality" thread.

sidd

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #73 on: February 13, 2018, 04:35:42 PM »
There is a good reason that the plutocrats don't give a rat's rear about working class people.  They don't plan on needing them in the future.

Making it easy to decide to strip their resources from them and then to discard.

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7077
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 670
  • Likes Given: 433
Re: A must read
« Reply #74 on: February 13, 2018, 04:46:51 PM »
There is a good reason that the plutocrats don't give a rat's rear about working class people.  They don't plan on needing them in the future.

Making it easy to decide to strip their resources from them and then to discard.

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally

Will there also be robots that keep consumer culture and economic growth going? What does it mean to be rich if all poor people have been replaced?
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #75 on: February 13, 2018, 06:03:00 PM »
Oh I don't know maybe it means you won and have control of everything perhaps?

We live in a world which has no future in its present configuration.  What can't last ...won't. 

So what do we end up with is the real question.  Pretending that green BAU things like ev's and some solar panels are going to allow all of us to continue to live the high life and that the party will just keep going on is naive and immature.  We are long past the point of being in a position to fix this mess. Big change is coming.

IF the world clearly cannot support its current population, and definitely not its coming population that, does not in any way mean that those who are in a position to take advantage of 'any' situation will not take advantage of this one.  "Never let a good crises go to waste." - Winston Churchill. 

If you are a plutocrat then you work hard to continue the process of accumulating as much real wealth and power as you can (the Trump tax plan anyone - the Trump infrastructure plan anyone).  You strip resources from those below you and eliminate the need for them as much as possible.  Robots, automated factories, automated mining, AI driven programs which eliminate the need for mid-level workers, etc.  Advances in AI and robotics will eventually eliminate the need for most of the worlds workers.  AI, as ASLR has mentioned, will eventually be able to far outperform anyone but a human genius in technology development so they will not need hardly any engineers or scientists- let alone a bunch of obnoxious humanities majors or poor people of any kind. Do you think Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos intend to take any regular folks along on their flights of fancy to space and beyond for instance.

Once you get rid of all but a few hundred million of the riff raff and have all this nice technology developed to take care of you the world can be a paradise.  Maybe Musk's children will have their big estate, formerly known as Southern California, to themselves, their vassals, some appropriate amount of muscle, and the few serfs they might still require.  Gates's family can have Washington.  Bezos somewhere.  And so on.  Who cares how high the sea has risen or how hot it is.  It will all be fixable over time and since there will be hardly anyone around anymore the loss of carrying capacity will not be a major issue.  Rich people only want to interact with other rich people anyway - and any hot girls they can get their hands on of course.

Look back to when you first started paying attention to this mess.  Note how minuscule the meaningful progress has been.  Basic human nature has triumphed just as one should have expected it to.  There is no rational reason to expect different results going forward.

We are living in the middle of one of those terrifying science fiction novels about the end of the world.

lol. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #76 on: February 13, 2018, 06:04:34 PM »

Will there also be robots that keep consumer culture and economic growth going? What does it mean to be rich if all poor people have been replaced?
I think it's too late to rail against robotics. That horse has left the barn.
We desperately need to revise our systems of distributing wealth.


Can we somehow imagine a system that rewards mindfulness and compassion, while still providing some minimal sustenance to the egotistical narcissists within our midst?


Those who, like Bruce and sidd, struggle to minimize the carbon footprint of our food supply deserve far more of the pie than the marketeer that brings pomegranates to our table as she sucks the last of California's water. But she deserves a slice if only for the fact that she is a sentient being.


I recognize some of the problems, but finding solutions is going to be much more difficult.
Terry

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7077
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 670
  • Likes Given: 433
Re: A must read
« Reply #77 on: February 13, 2018, 06:27:30 PM »
What I mean is that human workers are put in a treadmill where they are forced (consciously or subconsciously) to spend their earnings which then flow to the mountain of concentrated wealth. If you replace these consumers with robots, what happens to the mountain of concentrated wealth?

Thanks for the answer, Jim.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #78 on: February 15, 2018, 04:39:09 PM »
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #79 on: February 16, 2018, 01:54:37 AM »
Three articles:

Mishra reviews Coates in the London Review of Books: "We Were Eight Years In Power"

"A racist society can’t but fight a racist war,’ James Baldwin wrote in 1967 ... only now, with a white supremacist ensconced in the White House, that those same hardheaded liberals – who did so much to create a climate of opinion and a legal regime in which black and brown bodies could be seized, broken and destroyed outside all norms and laws of war – are coming to grips with ‘America’s Original Sin: Slavery ... "

"The intimate relationship between America’s internal and external wars, established by its original sin, has long been clear."

"As the original exponent of centrist liberalism, Arthur Schlesinger Jr, charged, they had become too prone to ‘nourishing prejudice, magnifying difference and stirring up antagonism’ – in other words, blacks were guilty of identity politics."

"[Obama] not only expanded mass surveillance and government data-mining operations at home, and ruthlessly prosecuted whistleblowers, but invested his office with the lethal power to execute anyone, even American citizens, anywhere in the world."

"Embodying neoliberal chic at its most seductive, Obama managed to restore the self-image of American elites in politics, business and the media that had been much battered ..."

"The rising disaffection with a narcissistic and callous ruling class was signalled in different ways by the Tea Party, Occupy, Black Lives Matter and Bernie Sanders’s insurgent candidacy. The final blow to the Washington (and New York) consensus was delivered by Trump, who correctly read the growing resentment of elites – black or white, meritocratic or dynastic – who presumed to think the White House was theirs."

"The realisation that economic conditions and religion were as much markers of difference as skin colour made Nina Simone, Mohammed Ali and Malcolm X, among others, connect their own aspirations to decolonisation movements in India, Liberia, Ghana, Vietnam, South Africa and Palestine. Martin Luther King absorbed from Gandhi not only the tactic of non-violent protest but also a comprehensive critique of modern imperialism. "

" Perceptive about the structural violence of the new Jim Crow, Coates has little to say about its manifestation in the new world order. For all his searing corroboration of racial stigma in America, he has yet to make a connection as vital and powerful as the one that MLK detected in his disillusioned last days ..."

"As long as Coates is indifferent to the links between race and international political economy, he is more likely to induce relief than guilt among his white liberal fans. They may accept, even embrace, an explanation that blames inveterate bigots in the American heartland for Trump. They would certainly baulk at the suggestion that the legatee of the civil rights movement upheld a 19th-century racist-imperialist order by arrogating to the US presidency the right to kill anyone without due process; they would recoil from the idea that a black man in his eight years in power deepened the juridical legacy of white supremacy before passing it on to a reckless successor. The intractable continuities of institutional brute power should be plain to see. ‘The crimes of the American state,’ Coates writes in one of the introductions to We Were Eight Years in Power, ‘now had the imprimatur of a black man.’ Yet the essays themselves ultimately reveal their author to be safely within the limits of what even a radicalised black man can write in the Atlantic without dissolving the rainbow coalition of liberal imperialism or alienating its patrons. "

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v40/n04/pankaj-mishra/why-do-white-people-like-what-i-write

the next is a moving elegy for Appalachia couched in visuals:
 
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/feb/06/what-youre-getting-wrong-about-appalachia

and the last:

Chris Hedges reviews "Age of Anger"

“To destroy a people,” Alexander Solzhenitsyn noted acidly, “you must sever their roots.”

"Western elites, rather than accept their responsibility for the global anarchy, self-servingly define the clash as one between the values of the enlightened West and medieval barbarians. They see in the extreme nationalists, religious fundamentalists and jihadists an inchoate and inexplicable irrationality that can be quelled only with force. They have yet to grasp that the disenfranchised do not hate us for our values; they hate us because of our duplicity, use of indiscriminate industrial violence on their nations and communities and our hypocrisy. The dispossessed grasp the true message of the West to the rest of the planet: We have everything, and if you try to take it away from us we will kill you."

" The idea of Mikhail Bakunin’s “propaganda by deed” is, Mishra writes, “now manifest universally in video-taped, live-streamed and Facebooked massacres.” It grew, he writes, “naturally from the suspicion that only acts of extreme violence could reveal to the world a desperate social situation and the moral integrity of those determined to challenge it.” These imported ideas filled the void left by the destruction of indigenous beliefs, traditions and rituals. As Mishra says, these jihadists “represent the death of traditional Islam rather than its resurrection.” "

" “The modern West can no longer be distinguished from its apparent enemies,” Mishra notes. "

" The mandarins who spew this self-serving narrative are, as American theologian Reinhold Niebuhr called them and their ilk, the “bland fanatics of Western civilization” “who regard the highly contingent achievements of our culture as the final form and norm of human existence.” "

" In the latest stage of this gruesome reciprocity, the heirs of Zarqawi in ISIS dress their Western hostages in Guantanamo’s orange suits, and turn on their smartphone cameras, before beheading their victims. "

" an ultimate stage in the radicalization of the modern principle of individual autonomy and equality: a form of strenuous self-assertion that acknowledges no limits, and requires descent into a moral abyss."

"  The self-alienation of humankind, Walter Benjamin warned, “has reached such a degree that it can experience its own destruction as an aesthetic pleasure of the first order.” "

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/06/12/age-anger

sidd

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 35
Re: A must read
« Reply #80 on: February 16, 2018, 06:35:02 PM »
An illuminating take on the structure of the Trump presidency.

Who would have known?

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/02/trumps-advisor-network-is-not-as-unprecedented-as-its-made-out-to-be/553148/

The Clinton White House was notoriously chaotic. However, it was more of a party atmosphere than a burn the world down vibe.

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: A must read
« Reply #81 on: February 17, 2018, 05:23:01 PM »
May I also jump in with some Must Read sites, or at least some of the posts on them are way above what many wouldn't dare write about;
https://un-denial.com/welcome/
https://jult.net/
http://witsendnj.blogspot.nl/

Then there's ex-MicroSoft employee Jamen Shively with some interesting honest ideas for 'a future':

Be warned though, all of the above are not suitable for those suffering true depression or similar mental conditions.

liefde

  • New ice
  • Posts: 46
  • ice melt will trump donald
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: A must read
« Reply #82 on: February 17, 2018, 05:32:50 PM »
Terry,

A coup is not required to form a police state.
At some point the insane self-entitlement of the (stupid) wealthy is going to show its true face. Afraid to have to share some of their wealth with the exploited poor of the world. At some point maintaining global extreme disparity is going to crash. I think we're almost there. Herds of starving poor people forcing big airplanes to drop them off somewhere rich, where armies of police and military will have to try and contain the bloodshed of the herds of hungry poor that no longer see a future with purpose, they'll storm the barricades, governments will force police to use rights to hurt and taser at free will. And then that scene will be copied by all the trigger-happy violent deluded wealthy pricks that think they have it so hard because they make only $1000 a month, with 3 meat-eating dogs and 2 guns. And then all bets are off. With a bit of luck extreme weather and extreme heat will take some of the strength out of them, but police state is part of the deal. It starts with governments attempting to keep the walls of wealth up, keeping outsiders out, keeping the slavery up, so the peanuts, coffee and chocolate can keep coming in, but the humans can't. Then those humans give up. Stop working. The End. ;)
« Last Edit: February 17, 2018, 08:16:29 PM by liefde »

ivica

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
  • Kelele
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #83 on: March 02, 2018, 02:51:06 PM »
A bit late but will do no harm (also, fits in a few threads):

The elites “have no credibility left:” An interview with journalist Chris Hedges By David North 6 October 2017

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2017/10/06/hedg-o06.html
or
http://www.unz.com/article/the-elites-have-no-credibility-left/

< Did Russians swing the election to Trump? No. Did Corp Dems swing the election to Trump? Yes. >
« Last Edit: March 02, 2018, 03:04:08 PM by ivica »

sidd

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4789
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 239
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #84 on: March 13, 2018, 09:23:45 PM »
Rob Urie on the faux duopoly of politics in USA, pointing out the hemorraging of votes from both parties and the growing independent vote.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/03/12/democrats-and-the-crisis-of-legitimacy/

He brings up an idea

"a strategy of systemic legitimation in that it implies choices outside of the duopoly Party system that don’t exist."

that links to Wolin's "Inverted Totalitarianism" but does not here explore it further. I would have liked to see more on that line.

sidd


Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: A must read
« Reply #85 on: March 13, 2018, 09:41:42 PM »
The middle income earners in The US have been abandoned.  Time for a revolution in politics.

 

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #86 on: March 13, 2018, 11:21:06 PM »
The middle income earners in The US have been abandoned.  Time for a revolution in politics.


True, but abandonment of the poor and also the wealthy is also true.


The votes and money of most the wealthy are no longer needed by either party as industrial and corporate money as watered down the donations of all but the richest, most motivated of the wealthy.
The Koch Brothers are corporate donors, not billionaires with an attitude. They invest in politics to increase the returns on their corporate investments.
Addleson is a committed zionist who made his fortune in a business that used to be illegal in all but one state. His donations are both ideologically driven and designed to keep his businesses from being legislated out of existence.


I doubt that I need to defend my claim that the needs of the poor have been ignored by both parties.




The link that sidd posted above does qualify as a must read as it explores the huge losses that the Democrats experienced under Obama. 1,000 seats and 20% of their membership fled the party.
Clinton's program of carrying on with Obama's programs didn't fly when she ran for the Presidency.
Both parties were hemorrhaging voters, and neither party's leaders gave a damn. The corporations were on board and that was enough to assure that party insiders made lots of money whether their respective party did well at the polls or not.


Most of us will have no truck with the Republican Party, so the Democratic Party is the only one we have a chance of influencing.
As long as the Party's allegiance is to corporate interests the poor, middle class, and even most of the wealthy have no voice in how their country is governed. Welcome to the Oligarchy.


Terry

johnm33

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1271
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 73
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: A must read
« Reply #87 on: March 13, 2018, 11:46:07 PM »
There was a speech made when Cuba was first taken over by the US. it included something like "Oh they can have democracy, they can vote for whoever they like, but all the candidates will be our chosen men" Seems the trial worked out so well they decided to move it home.

Iceismylife

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 281
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: A must read
« Reply #88 on: March 14, 2018, 12:23:54 AM »
The middle income earners in The US have been abandoned.  Time for a revolution in politics.


True, but abandonment of the poor and also the wealthy is also true.


The votes and money of most the wealthy are no longer needed by either party as industrial and corporate money as watered down the donations of all but the richest, most motivated of the wealthy.
The Koch Brothers are corporate donors, not billionaires with an attitude. They invest in politics to increase the returns on their corporate investments.
Addleson is a committed zionist who made his fortune in a business that used to be illegal in all but one state. His donations are both ideologically driven and designed to keep his businesses from being legislated out of existence.


I doubt that I need to defend my claim that the needs of the poor have been ignored by both parties.




The link that sidd posted above does qualify as a must read as it explores the huge losses that the Democrats experienced under Obama. 1,000 seats and 20% of their membership fled the party.
Clinton's program of carrying on with Obama's programs didn't fly when she ran for the Presidency.
Both parties were hemorrhaging voters, and neither party's leaders gave a damn. The corporations were on board and that was enough to assure that party insiders made lots of money whether their respective party did well at the polls or not.


Most of us will have no truck with the Republican Party, so the Democratic Party is the only one we have a chance of influencing.
As long as the Party's allegiance is to corporate interests the poor, middle class, and even most of the wealthy have no voice in how their country is governed. Welcome to the Oligarchy.


Terry
I was raised a Republican,  I didn't leave them, they left me.

When I was a kid I thought Ronald Reagan was the best ever.  Now I see what his long term policies did to America and I think he was the worst ever.

The population of America has been sold out.  Time for a new start.  Don't try to get the corporate influence out of the dems.  Start over.

 

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #89 on: April 10, 2018, 06:12:43 PM »
Very informative article.

Quote
...Over time, water has filled the abandoned stopes, where it reacts with the pyrite in the exposed rock and becomes acidic. Heavy metals previously trapped in the conglomerate rock – including known toxins such as arsenic, mercury and lead – readily dissolve in the acidified water. This toxic soup has been rising steadily; in many spots it has ‘decanted’ onto the surface or into the water table. Thousands of people – farmers, informal settlement residents, and others with no access to alternative sources – use this water for irrigation, drinking and bathing....

Quote
....This is not a matter of consumer choice or carelessness. Rather, the high contaminant content results from a deliberate strategy on the part of fuel brokers such as Trafigura and Vitol. These commodity traders blend the fuel stocks that they purchase from refineries, using different recipes for different destinations. Taking advantage of relaxed (or non-existent) regulatory limits across much of Africa, commodity traders maximise their profits by creating high-sulphur blends that are outlawed in Europe and North America. The Swiss NGO Public Eye found that some amalgams in Africa contain up to 630 times more sulphur than European diesel. Much of the blending takes place in the giant port region of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp, but the process is so cheap and easy that it can be conducted on ships, off the West African coast. Traders unabashedly name these blends ‘African-quality’ fuels, as they are saleable only on the continent – often in the very same countries that produced the initial stocks of crude oil. Such ‘dirty diesel’ is a significant part of why Lagos air contains 13 times more particulate matter than London air.

When these practices were documented by Public Eye in 2016, brokers insisted that their actions were legal. Which was true. European limits on sulphur in fuel stood at 10 parts per million (ppm). North America offered polluters a bit more leeway, with 15 ppm. Across Africa, however, the average limit was 2,000 ppm; Nigeria, the continent’s largest oil producer, had a standard of 3,000 ppm. ...

Guess where all those diesels vehicles which no longer meet EU regs are going to be sold?

When the time comes, and it will, when we can no longer feed all of the world or its not in our interest to do so, which locations are going to be cut off from supplies and allowed to wither away?

https://aeon.co/essays/if-we-talk-about-hurting-our-planet-who-exactly-is-the-we
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ivica

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 929
  • Kelele
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #90 on: April 12, 2018, 12:23:23 PM »
Ugo Bardy - Tuesday, April 10, 2018:
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.co.uk/2018/04/the-empire-of-lies-reloaded.html

Quote
By the time of Augustine, the Roman Empire had become an Empire of lies. It still pretended to uphold the rule of law, to protect the people from the Barbarian invaders, to maintain the social order. But all that had become a bad joke for the citizens of an empire by then reduced to nothing more than a giant military machine dedicated to oppressing the poor in order to maintain the privileges of the rich.
...
But democracy has become a ghost of itself: how can citizens make an informed choice after that we discovered the concept that we call "perception management" (earlier on called "propaganda")?

Comment by Miguel MartinezApril 11, 2018 at 4:18 AM:

Quote
I just put on line what I believe to be the best analysis ever made of how people can be deceived and enticed into war:
http://kelebeklerblog.com/2018/04/11/death-himself-cannot-set-the-nations-dancing-without-the-music-of-the-passions/
Vernon Lee wrote it over a hundred years ago, at the beginning of the Great War (World War Two, and the current wars in the Middle East, are just a footnote to that war).
She later wrote a much longer commentary to this short text, which is also well worth reading.
The rough beast is truly slouching, not far from Bethlehem.

"It is hard to describe the sick feeling of powerlessness, as the masters of the world prepare yet another war."

No quotes from "THE BALLET OF THE NATIONS", read it.


JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #91 on: April 30, 2018, 05:54:05 PM »
http://www.bain.com/publications/articles/labor-2030-the-collision-of-demographics-automation-and-inequality.aspx#chapter1

This is the best comprehensive analysis of where the global economy is going over the next decade which I have come across.  It details changes with HUGE implications for all of us and especially for any chance of dealing with climate change and declining carrying capacity (the 2 most important items on our to do list).  In sum automation and the declining economic prospects of the working and middle class are going to be driving the governmental bus.  There is not going to be much slack for dealing with long term problems.

It is very long and very detailed and requires a little effort to read it all the way through - but it is really worth it.  Read this and think about what it means and how much harder it is going to make dealing with the long term issues over the short term political/economic issues.

The below quotes are just referring to the United States.

Quote
...By the end of the 2020s, automation may eliminate 20% to 25% of current jobs, hitting middle- to low-income workers the hardest. As investments peak and then decline—probably around the end of the 2020s to the start of the 2030s—anemic demand growth is likely to constrain economic expansion, and global interest rates may again test zero percent. Faced with market imbalances and growth-stifling levels of inequality, many societies may reset the government's role in the marketplace....

...Our analysis shows automation is likely to push output potential far ahead of demand potential. The rapid spread of automation may eliminate as many as 20% to 25% of current jobs—equivalent to 40 million displaced workers—and depress wage growth for many more workers....

Wage depression will cover another 25% of the workforce.  This is devastating.  New job growth is expected to lag the job losses by 50%- so the old adage that technology creates just as many jobs as it eliminates will not hold - which it hasn't been doing in any case for a couple of decades already.

Quote
...At lower prices, we will see increased demand for some products, which will offset some displacement. Without it, the total reduction in employment would rise to nearly 30% of existing workers, or almost 50 million workers in the US. To put these numbers in context, during the Great Recession, US employment fell rapidly from its peak in January 2008 to its trough in February 2010 by nearly 9 million jobs, or 6.3% of total employment....

If the above increase in demand does not occur then it is 50 million jobs and total workforce disruption goes above 50%..

Quote
..Our analysis shows approximately 80% of all workers will be affected in the coming decades by some level of wage stagnation, displacement or a combination of the two (see Figure 26)....

The analysis also indicates that contrary to what we might desire economic inequality is likely to significantly 'worsen' between now and 2030 not get better. 

There is lots more in the article that is valuable reading and food for thought.  I highly recommend it.

We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 813
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: A must read
« Reply #92 on: April 30, 2018, 06:08:19 PM »
If 80 % of all workers will be effected. There will not be much left from the financial markets. Nobody will be able to pay back it's debts. Pension funds will all collaps.......

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #93 on: April 30, 2018, 06:26:22 PM »
If 80 % of all workers will be effected. There will not be much left from the financial markets. Nobody will be able to pay back it's debts. Pension funds will all collaps.......

It specifically mentions pension issues and states that government pensions below the level of national ones (USG Federal pensions for instance) are in real trouble.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #94 on: April 30, 2018, 07:43:16 PM »
Jim
Prior to reading your link.
I'd recently read something by a UT prof. that stated that the US Military, even though they're almost always looking for raw meat, won't allow anyone in with an IQ of less than 83. There is no work that they are capable of handling. This represents 15% of the populus.


He then states that these lower 15% have even greater difficulty fitting into a modern industrialised civilian society, and that as robotics increasingly takes hold this % will increase, rapidly.


He asks the question of how we will provide for these unemployables as their numbers dramatically increase.


This has already started, and baring an economic collapse will be glaringly evident within this decade.
Terry - now I'll get on with the task of reading your link  :)

Alexander555

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 813
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 42
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: A must read
« Reply #95 on: April 30, 2018, 08:00:45 PM »
It reads as a complete disaster. They are chasing productivity gains with their automatisation. That means making more items of a product in the same timespan. That means they have to sell more and more constantly. They are just creating giant pile of cheap trash. It's a drama for climate. And for this disaster the west is printing money day and night, otherwise they can not sell more and more constantly. And still you have fools that want higher productivity gains.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #96 on: April 30, 2018, 09:57:21 PM »

Jim
Here are some quick notes on the first 3 chapters. The piece seemed quite US centric, skimming over problems of healthcare, or assuming they were universal, ignoring the MIC gorilla in the room and assuming capitalism as the way forward.


#1

Wasn't India involved in the global economy when part of the British Empire? (prior to 1950)
Not all become dependant at 65, some work, some invest, some live by charging rent.
If autonomous vehicles alone reach maturity millions of drivers re-enter the workforce.
I see the "end of work", at least for a substantial portion of the labor force, as a reality.
I see automation as relieving labor shortage problems - and then some.


#2


Automation in education is something I see now and increasingly in the future.
I see automation increasingly marginalizing growing segments of the populace. The 15% who can't be productively employed now will grow at possibly an exponential rate. Robo-cops will keep them from becoming effective Luddites.


#3


Longer hours and more working years can be avoided when not economically required.
The inequality they forecast may simply not be viable. A cultural breakdown is probable IMO.
If increasing numbers are marginalized or forced out of the labor force the wealthy will be forced to provide make work, generous welfare, acceptable entertainment. Bread and circuses.


I'll finish the link later, but there is plenty just in the first three chapters to discuss.
Terry


JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2270
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: A must read
« Reply #97 on: April 30, 2018, 10:16:15 PM »
Terry

Yes the jobs analysis numbers were done for the US.  It wold be asking a lot to try and get numbers for places like India and China due to a paucity of data.  But the same trends would apply as this is technology based change.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #98 on: May 01, 2018, 01:12:07 AM »


Jim
I understand what he's saying about the lack of new labor resources, but really believe that automation is going to drive any of those concerns to the back of the line.


Having been marginally involved in some of the changeover WRT food service equipment I can tell you that when it comes, it comes fast, hard, and changes a market segment virtually overnight. Modern Impinger conveyor belt pizza ovens appeared and within less than two years it was just about impossible to buy a conventionally cooked pizza. The 5 major pizza oven manufacturers all came on board at once, a majority of the parts were interchangeable, and everyone in the business, or who thought that maybe they'd like to get in the business bought one.

Dishwashing machines in major casino are the most expensive and complex mechanical thing in the building. They're installed, then the building is built around them.
How many kids did each of them put out of work?
The weirdest machine I've ever seen made bagels. Mixed the dough, kneaded it, stretched it, folded it, tied it in a knot, cooked it, rolled it out on a conveyor belt and didn't need anyone in the same room.

Not robots in the normal sense at all, but machines that did one task with astonishing speed and precision, and with very little human supervision.

Remember back when a bartender made your frozen margarita, or pina colada? Now he holds your glass under the spout and pulls a lever. Still plenty of bartenders, but what ever happened to the bar boys? With an automatic ice machine at your back, a glass washer to your side. and a mug froster under the bar who needs a bar boy, and what would he do with his time.

The bar boys and dishwashers were pretty far down the food chain, but where are they working now? How many dealers went home forever when they installed a row of blackjack machines? They're probably hanging out with the dealers that lost their jobs when the poker machines were installed.

One small industry.

When Makita came out with a battery operated drill/driver that actually worked it probably increased my efficiency by 5%. If so every 20th tech had to find a new trade.

An autonomous fleet of Ubers plus a driverless Semi that works puts every professional driver out on the curb. And some of those jobs paid a decent wage. Where will they look for work? How will they make the payment on that double wide trailer that the robots built?

If you look good, have great people skills, and are smart as a whip, someone might have an opening for you. Probably not much money, probably not permanent, but possibly enough to get by until you're laid off.


If you were bright enough to groc calculus in high school you might find a job behind a cash register. In the depression airline stewardesses needed to be registered nurses, as well as having tiny waists, wonderful skin, and being under 25.

Fortunately I'm an old man with serious health problems. If everything goes well, no climate change problems, no major wars, and no sudden economic downturn, it will be an ugly life. If anything gets screwed up, it will be a horror.

Gadds - I've depressed myself :'(
Terry

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5016
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 317
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: A must read
« Reply #99 on: May 01, 2018, 09:16:18 AM »
Jim
On through the next chapters.


#4
Very turbulent times in the 20's are predicted.
High unemployment and labor shortages? I see massive unemployment crippling everything. No buyers with bucks. Back to Autonomous Uber again, if I'm happy calling for an EV ride from wherever, I'm probably not employed in the automotive industry, nor the energy industry, nor steel, aluminum, car radios or accessories. Traffic cops, and the communities they support will be on life support.
We saw Walmart eat communities and spit out destitute towns that had their street lights repossessed. Well, Amazon is eating Walmart for lunch. Who can afford stop lights when there are no drivers to ticket? Who can afford cops that sit around waiting for the next alleged perp? How do you pull off the perfect heist when your car turns you in and drives you to jail?


Jeeze
I'm off on a rant again
Sorry


Automated production will lower prices, but not low enough to offset the wages of those it has displaced.
We haven't yet recovered from the Great Recession, and I'm not convinced that we ever will.
He next speaks of elder spending as driving the economy, then in the next paragraphs exposes the poverty of retiring Americans. If government subsidies are required to sustain the old, they can't spend enough to support the very taxpayers that are expected to shoulder this burden.
The virtuous circle he speaks of requires startup cash, and the government doesn't have anything but outstanding debt. How long before that lifeline is snapped?
He's convinced that America will lead the automation wave. How? Why would a factory set up here? Labor is expensive, and not particularly productive. American STEM students don't lead the world. Most of the easily extracted resources have been extracted. Our infrastructure is decayed, and America's government hasn't made a lot of friends.
Higher interest rates will simply add to the backlog of repossessions and foreclosures. Lending institutions don't need parking lots full of used vehicles, and the dispossessed workers will set up camp in the foreclosed real estate.
He sees growth at 3%, I hope we can tread water. - what would we do with 3% more stuff?
He talks of jobs teaching AI machines, but AI machines will perform all of this work.
Back to soaring interest rates. - somebody needs to be able to pay them.
Apre the boom he sees bust. I concur with the prediction of the bust.
He bemoans Japan's "lost decades". They look OK to me.
Noting that his "virtuous circle" sustained by the elderly would require unsustainable taxation he abandons this pipe dream. Good.
America's safety net is found wanting.
Both dropping export markets and dropping wages are addressed.
He sees "governments" stepping up to save the safety net. I see "governments" fleeing their obligations.
Wow! I don't really think he's much more optimistic than myself.


#5
Governments will intervene in the market.
Higher taxation will be required. Turnips can't give blood no matter how hard they're squeezed.
More authoritarian governments, less democracy - it's what the people want?
"Businesses have managed to prosper and thrive in all these eras." One of the eras mentioned was the depression?
He again addresses safety nets, and immigration policy.
Baby boomers and Social Security, that's a thorny one.
Globalization seen as good unless your GDP growth per person is low.
More Boomers vs Social Security
All in all a greater need for tax spending, and a diminishing pool of tax raising sources.


#6
There will be Blood - for tomorrow's investors, or of tomorrow's investors.
Hedge all your bets.
Long Term plans to increase resilience?
End of the middle class.
This section seems to be instructing businesses and investors on how to weather a cyclone. Be prepared to run in any direction or staying put. Aaukk!


Conclusion
He ends with statistics showing that were not going to live that much longer anyway, perhaps in an effort to end on a high note.


Don't feel obligated to read all or ever part of the above, It was more a free association exercise rather than a well thought out response to a rather ponderous article.
I think everyone is going to get hurt in the maelstrom that is coming. Those who aren't the brightest and most adaptable will be hurt the most.


Good luck to all
Terry