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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #100 on: December 21, 2014, 11:25:20 PM »
Viddaloo has just accused me of collusion with Jai Mitchell.

I have told him where to go. But will publicly explain how I got data out so fast.

Open 'codemaster', the spreadsheet I use to process and contain data derived from PIOMAS gridded.
Select region required from a drop down list.
Select month from a drop down list.
The speadsheet then uses 'vlookup' to automatically populate data and update graphs.
Cut and paste data. 

All that in minutes.

For the record, there was no collusion.

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #101 on: December 21, 2014, 11:41:04 PM »
I believe you told me to 'go fuck myself', and not where to go per se.

I understand that Christmas is celebrated differently in different cultures around the world.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #102 on: December 21, 2014, 11:51:34 PM »
So you don't think an allegation of collusion is likely to make someone rather angry? Of course not, such allegations against the scientific community come from you on a regular basis.

I don't know why I put up with you when I have a blog I don't post on regularly enough. I'm off.

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #103 on: December 22, 2014, 12:03:22 AM »
I made a necessary change to the Arctic Sea Ice Collapse graph, the center of the latest controversy.

I put the explanation about the latest data added to the graph in the chart legend, so that the date for the last annual average volume is left alone in the graph annotation. Hopefully, this will make the graph a bit easier to understand for all, regardless of their math or science background.
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Peter Ellis

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #104 on: December 22, 2014, 12:27:23 AM »
Stop pretending we don't understand your insultingly simplistic graph, you drivelling loon.

Neven

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #105 on: December 22, 2014, 12:38:16 AM »
Ah, so I don't understand it because it's simplistic? That's a relief.  ;D

I agree that viddaloo's game of statistical extrapolation without physical basis or explanation annoys the hell out of people who want to know how the damn thing works, but please try to ignore and not insult. At least out here in threads, but in PMs as well, if at all possible.

Viddaloo, I've told you before: you can't make a prediction based on statistics only, you need to explain how it will come about. Arctic sea ice loss? Sure. AGW is the cause? OK, fine. But how exactly? Only if we know the how, we can start saying something about the when.
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #106 on: December 22, 2014, 12:57:40 AM »
Yes, I think a lot of ice will melt faster and faster because of warming and insolation. I thought that was obvious, LOL.
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Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #107 on: December 22, 2014, 01:01:10 AM »
Yes, I think a lot of ice will melt faster and faster because of warming and insolation. I thought that was obvious, LOL.

No you think ALL the ice will melt.  "All" vs "A lot" is huge difference.

Peter Ellis

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #108 on: December 22, 2014, 12:22:47 PM »
Sorry Neven, it just gets me really annoyed that whenever someone calls out viddaloo to defend his projections, or expresses incredulity over whether he can really make that big a prediction from that little evidence, he immediately accuses them of not knowing what an average is and retreats behind his one graph. Which is obviously magic and explains everything because Averages Are Amazing (TM), and if you don't get it, it's because you don't understand the graph or don't know what an average is.

He's been insulting every single reader of this site with his "Don't you understand how averages work?" schtick for months - and that's a pretty serious insult despite the lack of actual invective - and I'm fed up of it.

Neven

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #109 on: December 22, 2014, 01:09:20 PM »
Peter, I agree with what you say. But even though someone can be insulting, we have the choice to feel insulted or not (or just a little). We went through the statistics in the first two years of the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, and agreed that a Gompertz fit, for instance, would be more realistic than a linear or exponential fit (see my favourite graph by Wipneus that shows all possible trend lines). The mechanics behind it is what makes Arctic sea ice interesting, as statistics can be worse than damned lies.

Quote
Yes, I think a lot of ice will melt faster and faster because of warming and insolation. I thought that was obvious, LOL.

But there are negative feedbacks as well that will inevitably hinder the faster and faster part. Chris Reynolds is doing groundbreaking stuff on that. I mean, scientists before him have done most of the groundbreaking stuff, but Chris brings it all together. I personally find his explanation of the thickness-growth feedback very convincing, and I wish I had had the insight before.

You should really read Chris' latest blog post and other stuff on his blog carefully. Much better than fucking yourself.

Or so they say. I've never tried it.  ;D
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #110 on: December 22, 2014, 02:24:44 PM »
Yes, I really feel like reading the blog of the gentleman who told me to go fuck myself now. He seems like a calm, measured and reasonable guy, who wouldn't go all nuts and show his true colours to the world just because a graph was posted that disagreed with his own long–held feelings about some ice.

I will certainly give it a thought during Christmas dinner. Maybe I'll read it on my smartphone in the cathedral? As you said, this gentleman (who more or less coincidentally and randomly told me to go fuck myself), calm, measured etc, has written even more these days, so of course I'll rush over there to see what it may be.

I just hope it's not about how the ice will melt slower because it can no longer remember how insulted it's been. If it is, I shall seriously have to go fuck myself.
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #111 on: December 22, 2014, 02:53:29 PM »
Target is set on the same day, that is annual average volume will be 6th lowest on May 21st.
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crandles

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #112 on: December 22, 2014, 04:52:55 PM »
Peter, I agree with what you say. But even though someone can be insulting, we have the choice to feel insulted or not (or just a little).

I think there is plenty of evidence that Viddaloo just likes winding people up. If he derives some form of pleasure from this then that is pretty sad. Getting wound up doesn't serve much purpose other than possibly giving him what he wants.

He has shown willing to put in some effort into creating graphs. (even if they seem vague/unintelligible or uninteresting to most.) This a bit different from some trolls who are not willing to put in ant effort so people have attempted to explain or discuss the science with him but it is clear this gets nowhere as he is happy to ignore anything that may cause any sort of challenge to his beliefs. Such effort perhaps deserves some leeway to express opinion but I suggest he has already done enough to run out of that leeway.

3 possibilities spring to mind:
1. Everyone should ignore him. This allow him to post his stuff all over the blog lowering the signal to noise ratio that is usually so high on this blog.
2. Restrict him to a thread or two (this one and Arctic CH₄ Levels Winter 2014—2015) deleting any posts he makes not on these threads.
3. Prevent further posts.

I would suggest 1. hasn't worked well so far and if the majority want more action to keep the signal to noise ratio high then this should be a more important consideration than any concerns about censorship. I don't really mind 2. or 3. 3. is easier to implement than 2.

------

[inline response from me so as to not clog the thread: I don't want to discuss that here. I've given viddaloo ample warning a while ago, because he was losing his temper too much. This has improved.

I try to be flexible and tolerant, but I won't hesitate to take drastic measures when needed. In this case I really think it's best to ignore. Viddaloo can decide for himself whether he wants to keep focusing on stats exclusively, or profit from other people's knowledge and speculation wrt mechanisms and basic physical properties of Arctic sea ice. N. ]
« Last Edit: December 22, 2014, 09:32:40 PM by Neven »

Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #113 on: December 22, 2014, 06:54:30 PM »
I made a necessary change to the Arctic Sea Ice Collapse graph, the center of the latest controversy.

I put the explanation about the latest data added to the graph in the chart legend, so that the date for the last annual average volume is left alone in the graph annotation. Hopefully, this will make the graph a bit easier to understand for all, regardless of their math or science background.

Viddaloo I asked this before - What does your math trendline calculate the average to be in 2030 and in 2031?

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #114 on: December 23, 2014, 05:05:43 PM »
Today's Autozoom map displays the perfect zoomed view of the situation for the annual average extent: 2014 is on a collision course with 2010, and the crash will happen way before January 9th.



The Roadmap view gives us the approximate date, and it now looks like it will happen before the end of the year:



The significance of this shift from 4th lowest average extent to 5th lowest, is that it follows average volume, that went from 4th to 5th on September 19th. The change may indicate that we're moving into a safer place for the Arctic sea ice, although one must remember that the massive 389078 km² Abrupt Loss of 2007 happened from a higher average extent than we're at this year, meaning such losses can happen at any time.

Now that 2015 will start with both AAE and AAV in the same position, the next move up or down for any of them will be an interesting indicator for where the icepack is really heading in the second half of the 2010s. Of course, the longtime trend suggests down.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2014, 10:50:52 PM by viddaloo »
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Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #115 on: December 23, 2014, 07:01:48 PM »
Viddaloo I asked this before - What does your math trendline calculate the average to be in 2030 and in 2031?

jai mitchell

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #116 on: December 23, 2014, 08:47:54 PM »
AGU 2014 Nye Lecture by James White

ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE: THE VIEW FROM THE PAST, THE PRESENT AND THE FUTURE

https://virtualoptions.agu.org/media/C23D-01.+Nye+Lecture%2C+Presented+By+James+White/0_r289t1qf

This video presentation by James White lends credence to Viddaloo's conceptualization that the arctic is now, more than any other time in the last 120,000 years primed for abrupt collapse.

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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #117 on: December 23, 2014, 10:10:11 PM »
I suppose I should add that:

  • the post–2012 annual average extent position has already peaked at 6th lowest in 2013
  • post–2007 it peaked at 5th lowest in 2009 (returning to Lowest in 2011)
  • positions are a bit deceiving, as more and more years compete as time goes by
  • annual average volume peaked at 3rd lowest post–2007 and (perhaps) 5th post–2012
  • aae and aav were both 5th lowest already briefly for 27 days from Sep19 to Oct15
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werther

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #118 on: December 24, 2014, 12:35:34 AM »
Thanks Jai, for the link.
I'll come back later on it through the "weird weather" thread, which seems more appropriate.

Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #119 on: December 24, 2014, 05:09:56 PM »
I suppose I should add that:

  • the post–2012 annual average extent position has already peaked at 6th lowest in 2013
  • post–2007 it peaked at 5th lowest in 2009 (returning to Lowest in 2011)
  • positions are a bit deceiving, as more and more years compete as time goes by
  • annual average volume peaked at 3rd lowest post–2007 and (perhaps) 5th post–2012
  • aae and aav were both 5th lowest already briefly for 27 days from Sep19 to Oct15

viddaloo - I am not real good at math and need your help.  What does you math trendline calculate the Average to be in both 2030 and 2031?

Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #120 on: December 25, 2014, 05:36:29 AM »
I suppose I should add that:

  • the post–2012 annual average extent position has already peaked at 6th lowest in 2013
  • post–2007 it peaked at 5th lowest in 2009 (returning to Lowest in 2011)
  • positions are a bit deceiving, as more and more years compete as time goes by
  • annual average volume peaked at 3rd lowest post–2007 and (perhaps) 5th post–2012
  • aae and aav were both 5th lowest already briefly for 27 days from Sep19 to Oct15

viddaloo(p) answer me please!
viddaloo - I am not real good at math and need your help.  What does you math trendline calculate the Average to be in both 2030 and 2031? 

Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #121 on: December 25, 2014, 05:51:46 AM »
Merry Xmas to all... except to viddaloo if he can not answer my question!

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #122 on: December 31, 2014, 11:54:03 AM »
Extreme autozoom close–up. Guess what will happen on this very last day of the year?
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Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #123 on: December 31, 2014, 05:49:49 PM »
Extreme autozoom close–up. Guess what will happen on this very last day of the year?

I like this closeup a lot!  Can you do one like this with your trendline to show a close up of your math at 2030 and 2031 for annual average?

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #124 on: January 01, 2015, 08:17:12 AM »
Extreme autozoom close–up. Guess what will happen on this very last day of the year?
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #125 on: January 02, 2015, 12:27:03 AM »
Yeah, thanks for all the brilliant, beautiful graphs, vid! You've shown creativity and ingenuity in 2014, and even learnt to remain calm in the face of harsh attack waves. I hope you will carry on posting these updates on the sea ice also as we go into 2015.
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Unmex Chingon

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #126 on: January 02, 2015, 06:29:00 AM »
Yeah, thanks for all the brilliant, beautiful graphs, vid! You've shown creativity and ingenuity in 2014, and even learnt to remain calm in the face of harsh attack waves. I hope you will carry on posting these updates on the sea ice also as we go into 2015.

Are you talking to yourself?

viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #127 on: January 11, 2015, 07:09:34 PM »
Annual extent is now dropping for the 3rd consecutive day, as you can also see in the turn of the autozoom graph:


Today's drop of 363 km² is the biggest since October, and there's even a weekly drop of 154 km² a week, the first weekly drop in annual average extent in 2015.
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #128 on: January 13, 2015, 09:06:38 AM »
Biggest weekly drop since October.

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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #129 on: January 19, 2015, 06:20:31 PM »
Looking again at the annual average extent and volume for 2015, in–between them the closest year for comparisons is 2011, which is thus auto–chosen for the scope of these close–up autozoom graphs.

For the AAE, the weekly downturn has now ended, and we're up 461 km²/week. The annotation says dec30 +19 days, which means 2011 was higher on Dec30, 19 days ago. This is also why the chart shows yesterday's date + only 19 days ahead, because we are that close to 2011.



For the AAV, we are of course still up, as we've been since last spring. The annotation says jul15 +187 days, which means 2011 was last higher on Jul15, 187 days ago. This is also why the chart shows yesterday's date + 187 days ahead, and not a close–up like for the AAE.

The chart shows the prognosis will cross the 2008 graph on Mar25, which means we'll be 6th lowest from this date.

If PIOMAS — for any reason — is exaggerating the amount of sea ice, by as much as 1000 km³, our true position today will be 3rd lowest, and we'll then cross the 2012 graph on May11, which means we'll be 2nd lowest from this date. Remains then only 2013 to be beat, as that year was still lowest on May 11th, at an annual average volume of 13.4 km³, mostly thanks to the huge drop of 2012.

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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #130 on: January 25, 2015, 05:27:13 PM »
The fascinating saga of the Arctic goes on, and today I found myself puzzled by this:



And this:

Code: [Select]
2011 0.2 6.45 6.64
2007 -0.35 -10.73 11.08
2014 -0.88 5.75 6.63
2008 2.36 -1.12 3.48 [*may29*]
2006 -1.47 -14.04 15.51
2010 -1.95 -4.34 6.29

The average extent prognosis bowing downward for the first time, but when does it cross the nearest graph, and what year might that graph belong to? Obviously it's way outside the scope of this chart, and the little 'cheat sheet' above suggests it is 2008's graph that is crossed by the prognosis arc on May 29. I didn't even know 2008 was below us! But clearly it is, and it's really not very strange, in January, after the record low 2007 season, that 2008 average extent is very low.



The prognosis arc for the AAE is based on the development over the last fortnight, and as we move forward in the next days, it's expected to become even steeper downward, and I would guess a crossing of the 2011 graph within the scope of the AAE chart will become apparent in the next few days, provided daily AAE deltas are still negative.

The average volume prognosis is back into June territory, meaning the 2015 annual average volume will not go from 5th to 6th lowest before the pink graph is crossed, perhaps on June 2nd?



My cheat sheet again indicates some interesting facts not shown in the chart:

Code: [Select]
[-1242] -375 -42 266 552 758 782 461 -106
[16.89] 17.51 17.73 17.94 18.1 18.31 18.34 18.04 17.55

First that the weekly delta is lower than 7 days ago, a fact that implies the prognosis arc is actually going down again in the far end to the right, way outside the chart. Second that we will most likely see the prognosis going down for the first time within the scope of the chart within the next few days, thus going further into June on the pink graph, and possible even into the green. In which case we're looking at a transition into 4th lowest instead of 6th lowest, which is the implication of crossing the pink.

Of course, having the prognosis arc bowing down like that within the near future of the chart, also carries a very real possibility that the main purple non–prognosis graph will also be down at some point during this spring. That will be for the first time in about a year.

Newbie hint: Remember, you cannot have record low ice during the year without these annual average graphs first turning downward at some point.
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viddaloo

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Re: Annual Average Thread
« Reply #131 on: January 26, 2015, 07:15:05 AM »
With these prognoses, prospects for a very low sea ice year in the Arctic look reasonable good:




I was astonished to see the latter (volume) prognosis managing to sneak in there between 2010 and 2014 at the far end of the chart, but there you go: Never trust the Arctic to stay within the bounds of your charts! Looking at the cheat sheet again:

Code: [Select]
2011 0.2 6.49 6.69 [*feb28*]
2007 -0.38 -10.7 11.08
2014 -0.88 5.73 6.62 *[sep12]*

we see that the average extent prognosis arc will cross the green 2011 graph (and be 4th lowest) on Feb 28, while the average volume prognosis crosses the green 2014 graph (and becomes 4th lowest) on Sep 12.

The reason for this abrupt change of outlook is the rapid slowdown of the winter refreeze in the Arctic. And to be fair, these prognoses are programmed to assume that the weekly slowdown — this latest weekly delta compared to the previous weekly delta — will continue at the same pace and then accelerate. For annual average volume this means in clear terms that a gain of 18 km³ per week dropping to a 17 km³ per week gain now, will first continue into an AAV gain of 16 km³ per week in 7 days, and then a gradually accelerating slowdown. Obviously leading to a drop starting in a number of weeks.

From the AAV chart we can read that this drop is expected to start on March 30th. Not to be confused with the advent of spring, where actual daily volume will start dropping, although the date in this case may be overlapping. The AAV graph starting to drop on March 30th means that from this day forth, daily 2015 sea ice volume will be lower than the same day in 2014.

Newbie reminder: Remember, you cannot have record low ice during the year without these annual average graphs first turning downward at some point.
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