I think we can agree that the ice cover is anomalously *low*, whether we use the baseline you chose, or that which was suggested by others.
The random 100K km2 the Kara seems to have strikes me as the last residual effort by a desperate individual hanging from a window ledge before succumbing to gravity.
To your point, it is very clear, the ice is no better off than it was at the end of 2012, which bodes very unfavorably for our future. I think your metric is fine, and in fact fairly conservative in describing just how bad things are. That last would be my only criticism of it, but in that, might still make it more palatable to someone wavering on the edge of being convinced we need to do something, as compared to my strident screams of alarm
How 2016 goes now depends greatly on the refreeze; more than previously. We've established I think that the "symmetry point" in the system has changed. So much so, that an
average melt year could put us into a virtual tie with the third worst ice melt back in modern record. If we see imports of heat into the winter Arctic, and significant snowfall over the pack (which I think is probable), an average melt year next year will likely take us past 2015 into 2012 territory, as it took us that past 2014 this year into 2011/2007 territory.
Of course, all bets are off if we get melt conditions like 2012. In such an event, we may find ourselves apologizing to Wadhams for not taking him more seriously.