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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1000 on: May 29, 2015, 10:14:28 PM »
Greenbelt,

ECMWF shows the same thing, dead over Chukchi. And Chukchi now has a compactness of 0.77, the lowest on record, which means that for the area covered by extent of ice nearly 1/4 is open water. Clear skies over that might be very interesting.  ;D


Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1001 on: May 30, 2015, 03:15:27 AM »
Nick Stokes has created his own version of DMI's 80+ N temperature plot using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis.  He also added a tool that allows you to adjust the plot to include any lat/long range above 60 degrees.

http://moyhu.blogspot.com/2015/05/daily-arctic-temperatures.html

Here is my approximation of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas:

Nice job, though being able to choose a past year to plot would also be nice.

You can timeseries past months of NCEP/NCAR here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl

Month to the same month in other years is not what I'm referring to. I am thinking of something more like DMI except with the chosen box region, where you have a day to day timeseries for a year.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1002 on: May 30, 2015, 08:51:37 AM »
\
(Edit:  Interestingly, a quick check of some March and February dates shows moisture in 2014 tended to be higher than this year.  Fascinating, as 2015 tended to be much warmer.)
SST's across the Arctic in Feb , Mar 2014 (anomalies 3.702, 3.728 ) were much warmer than 2015 (anomalies:  1.494   2.668) according to  NOAA (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl), which  seems to support your point.

2014 Air temperatures with +4 anomalies in Feb and Mar,  were also way  higher than 2015, (1.518,   2.897)
(Anomalies calculated on average since 1948).

« Last Edit: May 30, 2015, 09:06:55 AM by DavidR »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1003 on: May 30, 2015, 09:17:41 AM »
The 00z GFS has a full on dipole.

The 00z euro heads that way until it spins up a bomb.
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DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1004 on: May 30, 2015, 09:27:05 AM »


The snow cover on the 2015 image is suspect, I'm pretty sure Alaska is basically snow free, save the mountains. Amongst other areas.

What ever algorithm that spat out the image for 2015 on that date is drunk.

Here's a sat view of Alaska on the 20th of may. The snow cover for the northern hemisphere is ridiculously oversized in that image.
Quote from Cryosphere: http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/  "Note: snow cover data not updating ... we hope to have a new data source by July, 2015."
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1005 on: May 30, 2015, 01:39:42 PM »
How do you upload an actual file for an image to "freeze" it on a given date even when the source updates?

I want to show the snow depth forecast on CCI/GFS for June 6th - it is colossally devoid of snow over most of the Arctic.

Even 2012 didn't reach this stage until June 15th or 16th!  :o

Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1006 on: May 30, 2015, 02:11:05 PM »
How do you upload an actual file for an image to "freeze" it on a given date even when the source updates?

I want to show the snow depth forecast on CCI/GFS for June 6th - it is colossally devoid of snow over most of the Arctic.

Even 2012 didn't reach this stage until June 15th or 16th!  :o



I use tinypic to rehost images.

http://tinypic.com/

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1007 on: May 30, 2015, 03:43:23 PM »
FWIW, both GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00z run supports the idea of a weakened HP to be replaced by lower pressures and eventually also a quite large cyclone. This means more clouds and probably less melt ponds. It also seems to arrive by June 6-7 which should be a rather critical time for the "June cliff"..

Personally, I think we should look forward to a melt season more in line with 2010 or 2011....

//LMV

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1008 on: May 30, 2015, 03:57:52 PM »
How do you upload an actual file for an image to "freeze" it on a given date even when the source updates?

I want to show the snow depth forecast on CCI/GFS for June 6th - it is colossally devoid of snow over most of the Arctic.

Even 2012 didn't reach this stage until June 15th or 16th!  :o



I use tinypic to rehost images.

http://tinypic.com/

Thanks for the tip.  :)

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1009 on: May 30, 2015, 04:00:29 PM »
FWIW, both GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00z run supports the idea of a weakened HP to be replaced by lower pressures and eventually also a quite large cyclone. This means more clouds and probably less melt ponds. It also seems to arrive by June 6-7 which should be a rather critical time for the "June cliff"..

Personally, I think we should look forward to a melt season more in line with 2010 or 2011....

//LMV

The problem is that by that time, the snow cover over most of the Arctic will be already GONE and the ice will be topped by melt ponds galore. The June cliff will hit just before the low does!

Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1010 on: May 30, 2015, 04:19:14 PM »
How do you upload an actual file for an image to "freeze" it on a given date even when the source updates?

I want to show the snow depth forecast on CCI/GFS for June 6th - it is colossally devoid of snow over most of the Arctic.

Even 2012 didn't reach this stage until June 15th or 16th!  :o



I use tinypic to rehost images.

http://tinypic.com/

Thanks for the tip.  :)

You are welcome. :)

FWIW, both GFS 06z run and ECMWF 00z run supports the idea of a weakened HP to be replaced by lower pressures and eventually also a quite large cyclone. This means more clouds and probably less melt ponds. It also seems to arrive by June 6-7 which should be a rather critical time for the "June cliff"..

Personally, I think we should look forward to a melt season more in line with 2010 or 2011....

//LMV

The problem is that by that time, the snow cover over most of the Arctic will be already GONE and the ice will be topped by melt ponds galore. The June cliff will hit just before the low does!

Indeed, It looks like the majority of snow cover is going to be gone by the end of the first week in June. The current GFS forecasts for snow cover over the Arctic pack has been pretty accurate so far. Melt ponding is visible in the buoy cameras on

http://obuoy.datatransport.org

Roughly in line with when GFS predicted it. Whilst 7 day forecasts are always a dicey affair I think we could be in for interesting times here.

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1011 on: May 30, 2015, 07:54:16 PM »
Most of the northern Russian coast is going to be TOASTY over the next 7 days or more...
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1012 on: May 30, 2015, 11:24:41 PM »
Meanwhile over near the north coast of Alaska buoy 2015A suddenly finds itself sitting in a bath of much warmer water, and needless to say bottom melt has set in:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015A
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1013 on: May 31, 2015, 12:21:29 AM »
A glimpse of the water that is now flowing through the Lena Delta:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#Laptev
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Timothy Astin

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1014 on: May 31, 2015, 12:39:15 AM »
Jim,

Any update on the discharge through the McKenzie River? I recall a paper saying how important river discharge was for Beaufort melting, so your graphs were interesting.  I guess you could point us to the data you found and I could graph it myself.  :-[

Juan C. García

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1015 on: May 31, 2015, 04:28:24 AM »
Do we have a cyclon at Barents Sea?
Will it push some Arctic sea ice to the hotter waters of the Atlantic?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1016 on: May 31, 2015, 04:54:42 AM »
June 1st and July 1st have abnormally high drops in NSIDC extent which has been apparent back for the past 25 years.  Typically double the average for that fortnight.

Does anyone have an explanation for this?
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1017 on: May 31, 2015, 05:50:45 AM »
Do we have a cyclon at Barents Sea?
Will it push some Arctic sea ice to the hotter waters of the Atlantic?
That would in fact be a cyclone, Albeit a modest one.  Earth.nullschool.net should have some 2 meter wind speed numbers.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1018 on: May 31, 2015, 08:28:43 AM »
One really funny thing today!  ;D If you look at todays SIE maps of either Wipneus or perhaps Bremen you may see that a strange "Z" seems to appear close to the North Pole.. Must be "Zorro" who is in charge there  :o ;D ;) ::)


andy_t_roo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1019 on: May 31, 2015, 08:43:49 AM »
June 1st and July 1st have abnormally high drops in NSIDC extent which has been apparent back for the past 25 years.  Typically double the average for that fortnight.

Does anyone have an explanation for this?

I believe it's a change in false land-fast ice away from the arctic circle in areas considered to have completely melted out, so are set to 0, rather than a few residual pixels.

werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1020 on: May 31, 2015, 08:44:28 AM »
A glimpse of the water that is now flowing through the Lena Delta:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#Laptev

Thanks, Jim. The Lena delta in spring always presents MODIS with some suggestive pictures. I like it even better in true color (this detail enhanced -10/+22/-64):


Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1021 on: May 31, 2015, 12:04:43 PM »
Here you go Timothy. Raw data is available via:

http://wateroffice.ec.gc.ca/report/report_e.html?mode=Graph&type=realTime&stn=10LC014

There's still a week's worth missing around the peak :(
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1022 on: May 31, 2015, 01:01:45 PM »
I don't think the jump in water temps at 2015A is to be associated with discharge from the Mackenzie River though. Since the buoy sits so close to the shore it is likely the water comes from a more local source like Kuparuk River or Colville River.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1023 on: May 31, 2015, 01:42:01 PM »
Meanwhile over near the north coast of Alaska buoy 2015A suddenly finds itself sitting in a bath of much warmer water.

Perhaps this helps explain things? The flow of the Colville River from:

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ak/nwis/uv/?site_no=15875000&agency_cd=USGS

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1024 on: May 31, 2015, 03:15:06 PM »
Bottom melt has also set in at buoy 2015B, confirmed by both bottom sounder and thermistors:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015B
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1025 on: May 31, 2015, 04:12:19 PM »
I attach figures of ice drift predicted for today, Jun 1 &  2 (HYCOM+CICE model). Also the model predicts what can be the opening of a large ice front along the Siberian Coast in one week (bottom image, sorry for the sizes!). Add up the already open front on Beaufort, Chukchi, and Kara.

The speed of this front during June should increase with preconditioning (high in Beaufort and Chukchi, nonexistent yet in ESS and Laptev), compaction, transport (will happen during the first week), insolation of open water, and weather (getting better in Eurasia, worse in America, then who knows).







Timothy Astin

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1026 on: May 31, 2015, 06:02:51 PM »
Here you go Timothy. Raw data is available via:

There's still a week's worth missing around the peak :(

Thanks Jim.
That is an interesting pattern of discharge on the Mackenzie River.  I suppose the missing data could reflect that discharge was very high at the peak.  The unusually sharp discharge peak for 2015 fits well with the unusually high regional temperatures causing an unusually rapid snow melt in May.

I think that explains why the delta fast ice has not disintegrated next.

The unusually sharp drop in discharge means that there will be less boost to coastal water temperature from the river during June.

wanderer

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1027 on: May 31, 2015, 06:10:25 PM »
Who is expecting a big melt year?

CT area: we are already above 2012 and some other years http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Volume is likely to be higher than the years before and not looking at data, but taking a visual look at Worldview, 2012 seems to be ahead in most regions: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

Extent is low, but how long will this last?
After 2013 and 2014 I wouldn't get too excited, at least not as early as now...

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1028 on: May 31, 2015, 06:10:38 PM »
Sea Ice Sailor,

I've been watching HYCOM too. It's looking good off Sibera, now we need that region to warm up.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1029 on: May 31, 2015, 06:15:47 PM »
Wanderer,

I'm not expecting a record year, I just don't want a boring year like the last two. My prediction for September NSIDC extent is 5.15 million kmsq +/- 0.64 million kmsq. I am hoping for the low end.

ktonine

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1030 on: May 31, 2015, 06:35:48 PM »
I'm not expecting a record year, I just don't want a boring year like the last two. My prediction for September NSIDC extent is 5.15 million kmsq +/- 0.64 million kmsq. I am hoping for the low end.

I don't expect a record year either, but one can always hope to be be surprised :)

As I just wrote over at Chris' Dosbat blog, I'd guess a September extent of 4.59 Mkm^2 with a slight lean towards a couple tenths lower.  Pretty much right at Chris' lower limit.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1031 on: May 31, 2015, 06:38:28 PM »
Wanderer,

I'm not expecting a record year, I just don't want a boring year like the last two. My prediction for September NSIDC extent is 5.15 million kmsq +/- 0.64 million kmsq. I am hoping for the low end.

I think you're at the high end, Chris.  Even an average seasonal loss - 9.5 million KM2 - would put you at your low end figure.  As the average losses in the last 4-5 years have been running over 10, and because of the running start we've had in may, I'm pessimistic about the future of the ice; it is not good.

I still put beating 2012 at about 1 chance in 3.  I think we're on track to meet or beat 2011, and probably 2007.  I put our missing one of those outcomes at less than 1/10.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1032 on: May 31, 2015, 07:03:24 PM »
ask me in 2 weeks.

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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1033 on: May 31, 2015, 07:20:19 PM »
Who is expecting a big melt year?

CT area: we are already above 2012 and some other years http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Volume is likely to be higher than the years before and not looking at data, but taking a visual look at Worldview, 2012 seems to be ahead in most regions: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/

Extent is low, but how long will this last?
After 2013 and 2014 I wouldn't get too excited, at least not as early as now...

I am definitely expecting a big melt year, I would be SHOCKED otherwise, because the surface melt is so far advanced and is projected to take off in the next week.

In 2013, it wasn't until about July 15 that the snow cover shrank to approximately the same area as GFS is calling for by week's end. Even 2012 was a bit behind compared to this year - by a few days. And 2014 didn't reach that mark until about July 9th either.

Just to get a comparison, look first at the snow cover forecast map from a few posts back (Reply #1010), and then look at the snow cover area here (the very first picture on this posting):

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/ice-pack-in-full.html

As you can see they are roughly equivalent, so this year is approximately 5 weeks ahead of 2013 in terms of surface melt.

Hence why I say I would be absolutely shocked if this year is not a big melt year.


ktonine

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1034 on: May 31, 2015, 07:41:21 PM »
I am definitely expecting a big melt year, I would be SHOCKED otherwise, because the surface melt is so far advanced and is projected to take off in the next week.
...
Hence why I say I would be absolutely shocked if this year is not a big melt year.

The quantification of 'big' is the real question.  Only 2 years in the satellite era show drops larger than 18%; 2007 and 2012.  Only 3 other years saw drops larger than 15%.  And a 15% drop would put us at 4.44 Mkm^2 - right at Chris' lower limit.

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1035 on: May 31, 2015, 08:13:54 PM »
I am definitely expecting a big melt year, I would be SHOCKED otherwise, because the surface melt is so far advanced and is projected to take off in the next week.
...
Hence why I say I would be absolutely shocked if this year is not a big melt year.

The quantification of 'big' is the real question.  Only 2 years in the satellite era show drops larger than 18%; 2007 and 2012.  Only 3 other years saw drops larger than 15%.  And a 15% drop would put us at 4.44 Mkm^2 - right at Chris' lower limit.

ktonine:  would you take another stab at those sentences?  I assume you are talking about drops in extent?  As measured from now or the start of the season?  Going to the september minimum?

I get something like (12-4)/12 = 8/12 = 2/3 = 66% drop in extent from around now to around the 2012 september minimum.

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1036 on: May 31, 2015, 08:24:33 PM »
I think he is talking about % decline from one year to the next year (at the Arctic minimum).  For example....from 2011 to 2012......or from 2006 tp 2007......or from 2014 to 2015.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1037 on: May 31, 2015, 08:27:58 PM »
For the last several days, we've been watching the weather models (accurately, it seems) predict a large high on the Pacific side of the pole. For the coming week, the forecast pattern shows the high shifting back toward the Canadian side, while low pressure develops north of Russia/Siberia. That sets up a Pacific-to-Atlantic flow, with surface winds that would seem to push ice out toward the Fram Straight, at least if the ice is sufficiently unpacked to be mobile this early!


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1038 on: May 31, 2015, 08:38:02 PM »
I think he is talking about % decline from one year to the next year (at the Arctic minimum).  For example....from 2011 to 2012......or from 2006 tp 2007......or from 2014 to 2015.

Sorry, I was unclear.  Buddy is almost correct.  I'm looking at year over year changes in the average NSIDC September extent. 

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1039 on: May 31, 2015, 09:55:42 PM »
Sea Ice Sailor,

I've been watching HYCOM too. It's looking good off Sibera, now we need that region to warm up.

If ice doesnt open up then June may get stuck like previous years especially with bad weather, but if it loosen up then there is more heat to be trapped, more chances to advance even with so-so weather. Last year it was Laptev alone. ESS seems it always was tough but at least give it a start. Pacific side is ready and Atlantic pretty damaged.

Dipole pattern coming? It might make another difference with 2014 Fram stall.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1040 on: June 01, 2015, 12:36:23 AM »
As we all know it is down to viability in weather over the season? Currently thing are not looking good for ice retention but that may change....either way?

Sudden move toward washout summer UK hints at active Fram? How much 'good ice' is in the Trans Arctic drift?

Do we need clear skies or high temps for ice loss to occur?

The past two years high end season figures depended upon low export.

What happens to a cloudy year with high export?

Pacific side has another year of high temp imports from the Pacific so will 'cloud' play much of a role or will bottom melt rule there?

but then we have the 'perfect storm synoptic'...... every ten to twenty years...... with the last two prior to 07' showing a ten year period...... has this period been impacted by warming ( and so the two ten year spacing's in the series?) and so we might expect further shortening of the 'period' of return???
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JayW

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1041 on: June 01, 2015, 01:06:18 AM »
Attached are the forecasts for hours 72, 96, and 120 from the UKMET (left) ECMWF (right)  Looks like there is a persistent cyclone in good position to pump ice out the Fram.

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=hnord&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=2&run2=12&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120
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JayW

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"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1043 on: June 01, 2015, 11:46:19 AM »
Looking pretty sunny under that ridge north of the Bering strait.  8)

The view from ground level at buoy 2015B:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1044 on: June 01, 2015, 12:43:37 PM »
interesting in particular the widespread melt. North pole is now at the border of the melt region:
http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/irid_data/2015D_temp.png

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1045 on: June 01, 2015, 01:47:34 PM »
Some close up pictures of events in and around Barrow, courtesy of "Retron" at The Weather Outlook. From May 25th, Open water in the Chukchi Sea north of Barrow - sea ice in the distance:



and May 26th, Fast ice on the beach at Barrow:



Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Yuha

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1046 on: June 01, 2015, 04:23:11 PM »
Looking pretty sunny under that ridge north of the Bering strait.  8)

The view from ground level at buoy 2015B:

But no melt ponds.
The snow around 2015B was turning dark in May, but then it got a layer of new snow that still looks pretty white and reflective.

I thought the Beaufort section was headed for strong melt season after the May heat wave, but I'm not so sure any more. It might have been too little too early for northern Beaufort.  The Chukchi section looks more promising though.

Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1047 on: June 01, 2015, 04:27:29 PM »
Looking pretty sunny under that ridge north of the Bering strait.  8)

The view from ground level at buoy 2015B:

But no melt ponds.
The snow around 2015B was turning dark in May, but then it got a layer of new snow that still looks pretty white and reflective.

I thought the Beaufort section was headed for strong melt season after the May heat wave, but I'm not so sure any more. It might have been too little too early for northern Beaufort.  The Chukchi section looks more promising though.



Melt ponding in the Beaufort.

GPS Coords are 76.5~ N -165

Yuha

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1048 on: June 01, 2015, 06:18:15 PM »
Looking pretty sunny under that ridge north of the Bering strait.  8)

The view from ground level at buoy 2015B:

But no melt ponds.
The snow around 2015B was turning dark in May, but then it got a layer of new snow that still looks pretty white and reflective.

I thought the Beaufort section was headed for strong melt season after the May heat wave, but I'm not so sure any more. It might have been too little too early for northern Beaufort.  The Chukchi section looks more promising though.

Melt ponding in the Beaufort.

GPS Coords are 76.5~ N -165

I count that already as a Chukchi sector and one of the reasons for thinking that the melt is progressing better there. Another reason comes from looking at Worldview.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1049 on: June 01, 2015, 06:52:23 PM »
Looking pretty sunny under that ridge north of the Bering strait.  8)

The view from ground level at buoy 2015B:

But no melt ponds.
The snow around 2015B was turning dark in May, but then it got a layer of new snow that still looks pretty white and reflective.

I thought the Beaufort section was headed for strong melt season after the May heat wave, but I'm not so sure any more. It might have been too little too early for northern Beaufort.  The Chukchi section looks more promising though.

Melt ponding in the Beaufort.

GPS Coords are 76.5~ N -165

I count that already as a Chukchi sector and one of the reasons for thinking that the melt is progressing better there. Another reason comes from looking at Worldview.

How about O-Buoy 10 / 2013F? It's showing substantial surface melt in Beaufort, even though the camera's resolution is awfully low...