Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2015 melting season  (Read 1823420 times)

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1750 on: July 03, 2015, 02:35:16 PM »
Hopefully I can add a bit of clarity here.

Thanks for so doing Andrew! If I might ask a supplementary question. Are you aware of any groups that make the results of CICE 5.n number crunching publicly available, as opposed to the much more familiar 4.n?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1751 on: July 03, 2015, 02:36:34 PM »
Wneh PIOMASS makes new data available? 4th is saturday, 5th is sunday - will we have to wait till 6th?

See: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg55417.html#msg55417 for your starter for 10.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 36
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1752 on: July 03, 2015, 05:17:55 PM »
Thank you. Had no time even to check PIOMASS itself today, werk. Few minutes, i have now. PIOMASS gives 15.263 for July 1st, roughly speaking. That is unbelievable. Too high. Someones went nuts - either someone in PIOMASS, or someone in DMI.

Don't have more time to write right now. Please do investigate if possible for me. Should be interesting.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1753 on: July 03, 2015, 06:16:36 PM »
No one has gone nuts, models are imperfect. Keep your pants on.  ::)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1754 on: July 03, 2015, 07:36:49 PM »
No one has gone nuts, models are imperfect. Keep your pants on.  ::)
To Neven's point, models (and analysts) can be fooled.

For example, consider the three images I'm posting here.

The first is a snippet from this:

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png

... which details much of the Chukchi and northern Beaufort north of the Bering and NE of Wrangel Island.

It looks very solid and is exactly the sort of thing which is generating fairly high extent numbers.  There are a lot of areas around the central arctic that look like this.

Next is a screen grab from EOSDIS Worldview, for 2015-07-03 - current conditions in the arctic.  You can see from it exactly why CT thinks the region is both well iced, and high concentration.

The last is a zoom in to the center of that EOSDIS shot, an area of approximately 10000 (ten thousand) square kilometers.  I think many of you will agree, the ice in that image is sick.  There is no contiguous floe in that image of more than 100KM2, and only one of those.  Judging heuristically, the modal flow size is well under 1KM2, and the median about that.  Much of the ice in that image is broken up so small (under 300 meters), that lateral melt is potentially a factor in how fast it will melt.

Now, I'm not sure what exactly the weather is going do to this ice, but  I think I can conclude that the satellite image suggests much less robust conditions than one might take away from either the extent or area numbers, or the image presented by the model.

This space for Rent.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1755 on: July 03, 2015, 09:14:30 PM »
Both GFS 12z run and the ECMWF 12z run suggests a major high pressure at 1025-1030 hpa building in over the Arctic and a kind of dipolar set up for the next week. The coolest air at 850 hpa level will continue to be confined mainly to the fringe areas in the Atlantic sector.

If this weather pattern set up won't have any effect on the ice, then we'll see another year with rather "high" extent numbers. But I don't so, once we get some offshore winds, warmed waters in the Siberian side and a lot of sun the ice should be rotten rather quickly.

The next 10 days seems rather crucial for the outcome of this melt season. July is by average the warmest month in the Arctic but the sun weakens for every day now, especially later in the month... The next 10 days may our best chance to see a quick drop in the numbers.

Best, LMV

stackmaster

  • New ice
  • Posts: 24
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1756 on: July 03, 2015, 10:47:19 PM »
Nares close to going BOOM, that's going to bring a whole lot more MYI export

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/image_container.php

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1757 on: July 03, 2015, 10:56:39 PM »
Both GFS 12z run and the ECMWF 12z run suggests a major high pressure at 1025-1030 hpa building in over the Arctic and a kind of dipolar set up for the next week. The coolest air at 850 hpa level will continue to be confined mainly to the fringe areas in the Atlantic sector.

The latest ECMWF did indeed take a great leap towards the "sledge hammer solution" with the Pacific and Siberian heat linking up in about 120 hours from now (within the edge of reasonable reliability) to basically cover the entire CAB for as long as the models can see.

And how about this forecast: a light southern breeze, crisp sunshine and temperatures peaking at a comfortable 24C, yes you probably guessed it, that's tomorrow on Wrangel Island in the East Siberian Sea. If this don't end in disaster then I understand nada.
« Last Edit: July 03, 2015, 11:01:50 PM by Rubikscube »

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1758 on: July 03, 2015, 11:12:29 PM »
Thank you. Had no time even to check PIOMASS itself today, werk. Few minutes, i have now. PIOMASS gives 15.263 for July 1st, roughly speaking. That is unbelievable. Too high. Someones went nuts - either someone in PIOMASS, or someone in DMI.

Don't have more time to write right now. Please do investigate if possible for me. Should be interesting.

Odd, I see nothing surprising in the PIOMAS data at all.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1759 on: July 04, 2015, 10:25:03 AM »
This year really is a bit like 2014, in the sense that there's little compaction and not much transport (through Fram) to speak of. There's simply little movement and everything is happening in situ. Yes, it's warmer, but volume is up too, and so it takes a long time for the heat to translate into the area charts, and even more into the extent charts.

Now we have this huge high pressure dome forecast spanning almost all of the Arctic, which is going to bring even more heat to the ice, but again, it's not a dipole, so there won't be much movement. What will be interesting though, is what the effect on the DMI 80N temp graph will be. Could we see a small spike above the green line, like happened in 2008?

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1760 on: July 04, 2015, 12:30:38 PM »
This year really is a bit like 2014, in the sense that there's little compaction and not much transport (through Fram) to speak of. There's simply little movement and everything is happening in situ. Yes, it's warmer, but volume is up too, and so it takes a long time for the heat to translate into the area charts, and even more into the extent charts.

Now we have this huge high pressure dome forecast spanning almost all of the Arctic, which is going to bring even more heat to the ice, but again, it's not a dipole, so there won't be much movement. What will be interesting though, is what the effect on the DMI 80N temp graph will be. Could we see a small spike above the green line, like happened in 2008?



There is no much extra volume where melting is happening now:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg55457.html#msg55457


Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1761 on: July 04, 2015, 01:04:53 PM »
According to PIOMAS there is (courtesy of Wip):



All that red (= thicker than last year, because of MYI transport) on the Pacific side of the Arctic, where much of the heat is (and forecast to stay a while longer), means it could take a bit longer to melt out than last year. This goes a way to explain the difference in extent with 2014 (more than half a million km2 as we speak). If that heat starts having an effect - and it probably will, as compactness is quite a bit lower than 2014 - and Hudson and Baffin go, the tables should turn.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1762 on: July 04, 2015, 01:55:39 PM »
Now is the day for the truth in the Arctic!

As the huge heat dome over eastern Siberia now have started to move out to sea (850 hpa level) while a high pressure is building in over the whole Arctic basin, the excuses for the lack of century breaks are over!! For the next week I expect 5-7 century breaks(!) At least 1-2 of them should be a double century break. A big deal of the ice should be quite rotten now and helping to put the extent numbers on steroids together with cool weather in the fringe zones..

GFS and ECMWF are both in rather good agreement about the weather pattern evolution for the next week.

Best, LMV

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1763 on: July 04, 2015, 02:09:42 PM »
According to PIOMAS there is (courtesy of Wip):



All that red (= thicker than last year, because of MYI transport) on the Pacific side of the Arctic, where much of the heat is (and forecast to stay a while longer), means it could take a bit longer to melt out than last year. This goes a way to explain the difference in extent with 2014 (more than half a million km2 as we speak). If that heat starts having an effect - and it probably will, as compactness is quite a bit lower than 2014 - and Hudson and Baffin go, the tables should turn.

Fair enough (though that is the June average; for reasons I, newbie, dont understand, I could percieve much more thinning during second half of June from Wipneus animation ... But that is eyeballing nothing else)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1764 on: July 04, 2015, 02:56:16 PM »
Fair enough (though that is the June average; for reasons I, newbie, dont understand, I could percieve much more thinning during second half of June from Wipneus animation ... But that is eyeballing nothing else)

Sure, I was just comparing to 2014, as that has my interest now: will this year end up below 2014? If the heat starts having a big impact, I'll look at other things again.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1765 on: July 04, 2015, 03:16:30 PM »
Near 30 C (86 F) on Wrangel Island!!!  :o


ghoti

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 767
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 12
  • Likes Given: 15
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1766 on: July 04, 2015, 03:52:04 PM »
Get excited when this is an actual temperature rather than a forecast.

Nick_Naylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1767 on: July 04, 2015, 04:13:08 PM »
If Hycom ARC's projection is anywhere near realistic, extent drops could be spectacular starting on the 7th or 8th . . .

Edit: Image needs a click. Watch Hudson Bay vanish.

Just for fun, I counted pixels and put this in rough numeric terms.
I had incorrectly posted as area initially, but I was counting pixels >15%
           Extent     Change
July 3rd     9,341   
July 4th     9,251     -90
July 5th     9,143   -108
July 6th     8,714   -429
July 7th     7,991   -724
July 8th     7,659   -332
July 9th     7,351   -307
July 10th   7,151   -201
July 11th   6,934   -217
« Last Edit: July 04, 2015, 07:27:42 PM by Nick_Naylor »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1768 on: July 04, 2015, 07:08:29 PM »
Thanks to a heads up from Chris over on the blog here's my take on the current situation, complete with video presentations by both David Barber and Peter Wadhams:

Is Time Running Out for Arctic Sea Ice?

Yes is the answer, and quite quickly. According to Prof. Wadhams at least.

P.S. Here's the latest SPIE graph, dated July 3rd:

« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 12:38:42 AM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1769 on: July 04, 2015, 08:20:02 PM »
Nick_Naylor: see my post #1766:

"As the huge heat dome over eastern Siberia now have started to move out to sea (850 hpa level) while a high pressure is building in over the whole Arctic basin, the excuses for the lack of century breaks are over!! For the next week I expect 5-7 century breaks(!) At least 1-2 of them should be a double century break. A big deal of the ice should be quite rotten now and helping to put the extent numbers on steroids together with cool weather in the fringe zones.."

Your numbers, though the uncertainity, gives support to the idea of a whole week with century breaks.

Wipneus, Neven, Jim Hunt & Co: what is the biggest single day drop in the Arctic ever? Nick_Naylors estimation of a 700 K drop in just 1 day should in my head by far be the biggest one day drop ever.

To that I want to add the question what the biggest 1 week drop is? An estimated 2,3 Million km2 loss in a week sounds like just another weird number to me...

Best, LMV

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1770 on: July 04, 2015, 08:25:45 PM »
As the huge heat dome over eastern Siberia now have started to move out to sea (850 hpa level) while a high pressure is building in over the whole Arctic basin, the excuses for the lack of century breaks are over!! For the next week I expect 5-7 century breaks(!) At least 1-2 of them should be a double century break.
Looks like it is starting off right, LMV.  Double Century SIA drop Monday.
This space for Rent.

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1771 on: July 04, 2015, 08:27:50 PM »
Get excited when this is an actual temperature rather than a forecast.
It's already been almost that hot, ghoti - a week or so ago.
This space for Rent.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3635
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 633
  • Likes Given: 407
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1772 on: July 04, 2015, 08:35:37 PM »
Quote
Watch Hudson Bay vanish.
LOL
I do see the forecast showing ice on Hudson Bay vanishing.  ;D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1773 on: July 04, 2015, 09:11:35 PM »
If Hycom ARC's projection is anywhere near realistic, extent drops could be spectacular starting on the 7th or 8th . . .

Edit: Image needs a click. Watch Hudson Bay vanish.

Just for fun, I counted pixels and put this in rough numeric terms.
I had incorrectly posted as area initially, but I was counting pixels >15%
           Extent     Change
July 3rd     9,341   
July 4th     9,251     -90
July 5th     9,143   -108
July 6th     8,714   -429
July 7th     7,991   -724
July 8th     7,659   -332
July 9th     7,351   -307
July 10th   7,151   -201
July 11th   6,934   -217

That cannot be. Notice ice edge retreat everywhere at once. It is an arctifact of the model. Hudson *ice* seems doomed though,

greatdying2

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 574
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1774 on: July 04, 2015, 09:28:07 PM »
That cannot be. Notice ice edge retreat everywhere at once. It is an arctifact of the model. Hudson *ice* seems doomed though,
Does seem overly large, but does this model normally make huge overestimates?
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1775 on: July 04, 2015, 09:40:42 PM »
That cannot be. Notice ice edge retreat everywhere at once. It is an arctifact of the model. Hudson *ice* seems doomed though,
Does seem overly large, but does this model normally make huge overestimates?

Ok, but it looks like all the ice with <40% of concentration (light green) suddenly disappears, everywhere. Ice model limitation? No idea. Maybe even Hudson Bay ice cannot go so fast.

But who knows, maybe Wadhams' prophecy become true in a couple of weeks

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 254
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1776 on: July 04, 2015, 10:32:14 PM »
Get excited when this is an actual temperature rather than a forecast.
There is actually a weather station at Wrangel Island to measure real temps and it isn't registering anywhere near 20-30C, but I suspect that is because the station sits at the coast where the southern breeze is blowing air straight off the melting ice/cold ocean. Modeled surface temps across the ice free interior should be a pretty good indicator of how much heat there is hanging around, but of course it isn't exactly a flawless approach.

Just for fun, I counted pixels and put this in rough numeric terms.
I had incorrectly posted as area initially, but I was counting pixels >15%
           Extent     Change
July 3rd     9,341   
July 4th     9,251     -90
July 5th     9,143   -108
July 6th     8,714   -429
July 7th     7,991   -724
July 8th     7,659   -332
July 9th     7,351   -307
July 10th   7,151   -201
July 11th   6,934   -217
That's an awesome experiment, even though a 700k day won't happen before pigs fly.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1777 on: July 04, 2015, 10:36:50 PM »
Wipneus, Neven, Jim Hunt & Co: what is the biggest single day drop in the Arctic ever? Nick_Naylors estimation of a 700 K drop in just 1 day should in my head by far be the biggest one day drop ever.

I thought Nick said expected to see 5-7 century breaks in the coming 7 days, but you can count pixels in any way you like, a 700K drop isn't going to happen.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1778 on: July 04, 2015, 11:07:49 PM »


Of course the model expects huge drops - it classifies that ice as only ~5 cm thick!!!

jr47

  • New ice
  • Posts: 14
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1779 on: July 04, 2015, 11:52:46 PM »
   My first post!
I have been following this forum and Neven's blog for around 3 years and i like to check the latest comments first thing every morning. The expertise from the regular contributors is totally impressive.
   But!....there seems to be over-excitement about ice melt,and  over-use of silly adjectives like the arctic is about to be 'toasted','roasted','nuked' ,'blow-torched' etc.., and then after all the fuss ,not much actually happens....
   Just my humble opinion!
   Phil

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1845
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 550
  • Likes Given: 6
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1780 on: July 05, 2015, 01:13:30 AM »
Epic melt is under way and will spread into the rest of the arctic the next few days.

This is very exciting
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3244
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 520
  • Likes Given: 205
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1781 on: July 05, 2015, 01:32:52 AM »
Epic melt is under way and will spread into the rest of the arctic the next few days.

This is very exciting
Indeed, to your point, 3 days out (7/7), SST's in the Chukchi agree with you.

It is a ways from the pack, but the forecast suggests temperatures over large stretches of open water in the Chukchi at or above 10C.

Ice all around the periphery is rotten as hell, the Hudson and Baffin quite bad despite relatively low temperatures.  Landfast ice is fully covered in melt ponds and breaking up rapidly along the Siberian coast except for the eastern ESS, where its simply vanishing. The whole Arctic seems to be disintegrating into a bowl of small floes mostly under 3-5KM in diameter.
This space for Rent.

JayW

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 604
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 223
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1782 on: July 05, 2015, 03:55:25 AM »
Some information regarding the now unavailable 92.4 experiment from HYCOM+CICE , or however it's referred to  :)

From the HYCOM forum https://groups.google.com/a/hycom.org/forum/m/#!topic/forum/K8Vb3dTzKTQ

Quote
I'm not sure if this is the best place to ask, but....

Whilst the 1/12° Global HYCOM sea surface visualisations at:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/arctic.html

still seem to be publicly available, the sea ice equivalents now appear to be password protected. For example:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Can anyone here suggest an explanation?

Thanks,

Jim


Quote
We discovered that we did not have the right paperwork for public release of the global HYCOM+CICE plots. 

We have resubmitted the paperwork, and expect these web pages to be open to everyone again once the public release process is complete.

If you want Arctic plots, ACNFS is sill available.

Alan.


Quote
OK - Thanks Alan.

Do you have any idea how long that process might take?

Jim

Quote
It typically takes a month.  We have asked for approval by the 21st of June.

You may be able to guess the username and password for the hycom cice web page.

Alan.

"To defy the laws of tradition, is a crusade only of the brave" - Les Claypool

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1783 on: July 05, 2015, 05:19:58 AM »
That's an awesome experiment, even though a 700k day won't happen before pigs fly.
We will see if it happens or not, but to say it can not happen seems to be very presumptuous.
It seems you are presuming that the thick ice is the same kind of thick ice as 30 years ago and demands the same amount of energy to melt. As said by both Drs Barber and Wadhams this is totally absolutely a false presumption. That ice no longer exists except for very small patches.
Those two and many others working on the ASI have repeatedly proven that satellites can be fooled into showing thick ice MYI where only FYI or extremely rotten ice is.
If the thickness 'grown' over the last two years actually is nothing but a giant facade is it unreasonable to think that indeed you could have a one day drop of 700k? Also if that does happen, maybe Dr. Wadham's prediction much more reasonable then it being an outlier suggests?
How many more 1 in 1,000 year events do people need to see before we come to the realization that the world as we know it no longer exists and we really have to change our ways of thinking as to what indeed can happen today.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

epiphyte

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 385
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1784 on: July 05, 2015, 06:55:02 AM »
A 700k day does seem unlikely for now at least.

But Impossible? To quote "Dirk Gently's Holistic Detective Agency"...

 "Impossible is not a word that exists in my dictionary. In fact, everything between "Herring" and "Marmalade" appears to be missing"

I'd certainly be very surprised if it didn't happen before pigs fly ;)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 7756
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 1133
  • Likes Given: 521
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1785 on: July 05, 2015, 08:21:55 AM »
   But!....there seems to be over-excitement about ice melt,and  over-use of silly adjectives like the arctic is about to be 'toasted','roasted','nuked' ,'blow-torched' etc.., and then after all the fuss ,not much actually happens....
   Just my humble opinion!
   Phil

Hi, Phil, and welcome.

Well, sometimes something does happen (depending on your definition of 'happen'). But leaving the science aspect and the seriousness of the situation wrt AGW aside, ice watching is also something that's supposed to be fun. And it's fun to forecast events as if it's a sport.

That's an awesome experiment, even though a 700k day won't happen before pigs fly.
We will see if it happens or not, but to say it can not happen seems to be very presumptuous.

It won't happen next week or this melting season, but under some very special circumstances, it might happen. But even then, I'd be expecting something more along the lines of a long streak of double and triple centuries.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

6roucho

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 296
  • Finance geek
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1786 on: July 05, 2015, 09:01:50 AM »
Thanks to a heads up from Chris over on the blog here's my take on the current situation, complete with video presentations by both David Barber and Peter Wadhams:

Is Time Running Out for Arctic Sea Ice?

Yes is the answer, and quite quickly. According to Prof. Wadhams at least.
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1787 on: July 05, 2015, 09:39:56 AM »
Some information regarding the now unavailable 92.4 experiment from HYCOM+CICE , or however it's referred to  :)

I've been so busy I forgot to mention that in here  :-[
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4742
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 507
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1788 on: July 05, 2015, 09:47:01 AM »
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.

In my view the 0.98 is merely a symbolic "shot across the bows" of the SIPN "conventional wisdom", and not a best effort 2015 "prediction". It certainly gets people's attention!

See also: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg55517.html#msg55517 et seq.

Prof. Wadhams is going to be cruising the Arctic Ocean in September looking for "waves".
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1789 on: July 05, 2015, 09:50:34 AM »
Just a short note…

This year, the melt pattern is not like during ’12. But it’s not like ’13 or ’14 either. Eyeballing MODIS, several indicators show there’s a lot of melt potency in all regions.
A detail near Severnaya Zemlya shows the fast ice near Vilkitsky Strait disintegrating. It points to an ice-free NE passage soon. Another is the remaining floes near the Siberian shore in the Chukchi Sea. These are probably the remains of the much discussed thick MYI floes that rotated there from the Beaufort Sea and the CAB during last autumn and winter.
If so (months ago CICE reported these in the 3-5 m range), this is the fate of the MYI barrier on the Pacific side when July weather and Pacific Water inflow remain warm.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1790 on: July 05, 2015, 09:50:42 AM »
Thanks to a heads up from Chris over on the blog here's my take on the current situation, complete with video presentations by both David Barber and Peter Wadhams:

Is Time Running Out for Arctic Sea Ice?

Yes is the answer, and quite quickly. According to Prof. Wadhams at least.
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.

No. A physical scientist would say there is no good reason based on observational data and physics.

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1791 on: July 05, 2015, 10:00:11 AM »
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.
Dr Wadham et al  are outliers in another way. They do not use satellite imagery in their calculations. Wadham has been traveling the Arctic in submarines and ships collecting data for the last 40 years. in that time his team has noted a decline of ice thickness that follows a mathematical model. His team is also convinced that satellite imagery is camouflaging what is happening. Based on those assumptions they are predicting a virtual 0 area/extent/volume starting either this year or within the next 2 years. Because his team are such extreme outliers the general peer group tend to ignore their predictions.
The thing about physics is the amazing number of times the outliers are right totally dismantling previous general givens.
I do think they are extreme in their thinking, but ignoring their reasoning can come back and bite you by making you look very stupid.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1792 on: July 05, 2015, 10:06:49 AM »
   My first post!
I have been following this forum and Neven's blog for around 3 years and i like to check the latest comments first thing every morning. The expertise from the regular contributors is totally impressive.
   But!....there seems to be over-excitement about ice melt,and  over-use of silly adjectives like the arctic is about to be 'toasted','roasted','nuked' ,'blow-torched' etc.., and then after all the fuss ,not much actually happens....
   Just my humble opinion!
   Phil

Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.

I started reading Neven blog after 2012 and now I wait for the thing to happen. Quite a few here too. Personal, ethical, or political feelings aside.

There is also another component which is the fascinating dynamics of the Arctic, at our reach thx to the technologies developed by the same guys that are ruining the thing, meaning us humans.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1793 on: July 05, 2015, 10:19:29 AM »
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.

In my view the 0.98 is merely a symbolic "shot across the bows" of the SIPN "conventional wisdom", and not a best effort 2015 "prediction". It certainly gets people's attention!

See also: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg55517.html#msg55517 et seq.

Prof. Wadhams is going to be cruising the Arctic Ocean in September looking for "waves".

As linked to over on the forum,

Wadhams is quite serious.

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1794 on: July 05, 2015, 10:25:03 AM »
   My first post!
I have been following this forum and Neven's blog for around 3 years and i like to check the latest comments first thing every morning. The expertise from the regular contributors is totally impressive.
   But!....there seems to be over-excitement about ice melt,and  over-use of silly adjectives like the arctic is about to be 'toasted','roasted','nuked' ,'blow-torched' etc.., and then after all the fuss ,not much actually happens....
   Just my humble opinion!
   Phil
An English professor I had started his first class by holding up a pencil saying that if he were to ask us  all to describe that pencil we would all describe it differently based on our physical relationship to it (viewing angle etc.), historical background, and the language we tend to use. His opinion was that there was no one right way to describe that pencil. In a forum lie this we all are different, just because we see things differently (unless the science is totally wrong) how we see it does not make it wrong. In fact if we embrace it, it may open our eyes up to different new possibilities we had not seen before.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1795 on: July 05, 2015, 10:35:08 AM »

As linked to over on the forum,

Wadhams is quite serious.

He has been very consistent.
2012
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/sep/17/arctic-collapse-sea-ice
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1330
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 46
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1796 on: July 05, 2015, 10:42:55 AM »
Todays SIE number was down with a moderate 56K.

The warm pool is going to make its biggest impacts for the next 3-4 days. OTOH, warm air is going to take aim on the Atlantic sector where the ice is thin. In addition, a rather strong High Pressure is in sight which should give really interesting conditions for the next 10 days. A strong HP is the the best concept to get a clear sky and to get rid of all the fog as the winds are increasing. The forecast calls for a negative AO to be in place too...

I also think it's fair to say we'll see rather big changes in both Hudson Bay and Bafiin Bay the next week...

//LMV

nukefix

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 477
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1797 on: July 05, 2015, 11:13:57 AM »
Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.
I wouldn't go that far, ice-ages were much more "catastrophic" than some changes in sea ice. Also if one takes the "long view" it is inevitable that the climate will change, even without human intervention. This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1798 on: July 05, 2015, 11:24:58 AM »
Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.
I wouldn't go that far, ice-ages were much more "catastrophic" than some changes in sea ice. Also if one takes the "long view" it is inevitable that the climate will change, even without human intervention. This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.
Asteroid hits, super volcanoes, ..... The difference this time is that it is being caused by humans and was totally avoidable.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 436
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 8
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1799 on: July 05, 2015, 12:19:57 PM »
Here are some of my thoughts on current ice conditions.
We started the melt season very early at the lowest max on record. We are now seeing a very pedantic melt in extent and area since. In fact the slowest melt almost on record.
If we left it there we could say we are having a very cold Arctic summer and could easily end up with a very high minimum.
At the beginning of the melt season we had a lot of thick MYI around and therefore based on the very slow melt we should see a lot of ice left. In fact if you look at the latest thickness graph all that MYI has almost all up and left. This leaves us with a few possibilities. The ice was not as thick in May as thought. The thick ice was not MYI but thick rotten ice. The ice is still thick, but being badly seen due to large amounts of melt ponds. Last I can think of at this time, a large melt has been occurring, but it has been hitting volume and not area/extent. If the latter is true then we're in big trouble, because if the thinning continues at the rate it has been, by the end of the melt season we will see a collapse of area/extent, because there will be no thickness left to melt.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer