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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1800 on: July 05, 2015, 01:06:59 PM »
   But!....there seems to be over-excitement about ice melt,and  over-use of silly adjectives like the arctic is about to be 'toasted','roasted','nuked' ,'blow-torched' etc.., and then after all the fuss ,not much actually happens....
   Just my humble opinion!
   Phil

There are different opinions about this (it was also a topic of quite some discussion last year) and I can agree it sometimes is a bit unnecessary, but this time around I will be extremely surprised if nothing substantial happens. SIA actually dropped more than 200k yesterday according to Wipenus, I don't expect that to happen today since the intense heat has just arrived and is currently limited to ESS and Chukchi, but in 2-3 days from now it will be all over the place.

Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.
I wouldn't go that far, ice-ages were much more "catastrophic" than some changes in sea ice. Also if one takes the "long view" it is inevitable that the climate will change, even without human intervention. This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.

I believe he said that the arctic melting is just a spectacular manifest to the greatest disaster in a long time, and thus this disaster is humans messing up the earth and not the ice melting. Seems perfectly true to me.

6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1801 on: July 05, 2015, 01:20:31 PM »
Thanks to a heads up from Chris over on the blog here's my take on the current situation, complete with video presentations by both David Barber and Peter Wadhams:

Is Time Running Out for Arctic Sea Ice?

Yes is the answer, and quite quickly. According to Prof. Wadhams at least.
As a mathematician, I find it relatively easy to credit Wadham's prediction (although I haven't seen his data). A physical scientist might argue that there's no good reason to predict that behavior based on previous measurements of the system. A mathematician might reply that that's the point. The final melt of the ice is quite likely to be predicted by an outlier like Wadham's.

No. A physical scientist would say there is no good reason based on observational data and physics.
Chris, I'm not sure we understand the current ice state well. Perhaps (perhaps!) we understand the equations. But it doesn't seem obvious that we understand the data. I can't help but feel skeptical of predictions of complex systems on the edge of change. Of course that works both ways. Evidence of discontinuities in similar systems in the past is no evidence that Wadham is right. Only that his arguments might be plausible.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 01:27:31 PM by 6roucho »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1802 on: July 05, 2015, 02:00:09 PM »
This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.

You are a master of the understatement.  :)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1803 on: July 05, 2015, 02:38:03 PM »
   Thanks Neven for the warm welcome;and everyone who commented on my "opinion piece"!
I too am eager to see how the predictions for Arctic Sea Ice play out,and will continue to learn a great deal from this forum.
   Cheers,Phil

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1804 on: July 05, 2015, 03:03:17 PM »
Wadhams is quite serious.

Following some private feedback I've just added another large section to my article that references 2009 and 2012 papers by Barber, which go into much more detail about the state of the "rotten" Arctic sea ice in September 2009.

Quote
[The sea ice] was so rotten in fact that the ship that we had does 13.5 knots in open water, and we were able to traverse that ice at 13 knots, yet the satellites all thought that this was very thick multi-year sea ice, because that’s what it had always traditionally been.

Barber sounds pretty serious too! Here's the latest Global HYCOM/CICE thickness:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#HYCOMThick
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 03:13:55 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1805 on: July 05, 2015, 03:39:40 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Wow.

Holy smokes, if that's remotely accurate we're going to see some incredible drops in area and extent over the next couple of weeks.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1806 on: July 05, 2015, 03:52:28 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Wow.

Holy smokes, if that's remotely accurate we're going to see some incredible drops in area and extent over the next couple of weeks.

True, but there's no way that thickness adds up to anything like the volume recently reported by PIOMAS, or even Hycom/ARC. I wonder how frequently Hycom is updated to reflect measured thickness (if ever).

By the way, where did this GLB image come from? Has the password been cracked or removed?

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1807 on: July 05, 2015, 05:07:07 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Wow.

Holy smokes, if that's remotely accurate we're going to see some incredible drops in area and extent over the next couple of weeks.

It probably isn't remotely accurate. I mean, why the sharp division between the areas north and south of 80N?
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1808 on: July 05, 2015, 06:09:02 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Wow.

Holy smokes, if that's remotely accurate we're going to see some incredible drops in area and extent over the next couple of weeks.

It probably isn't remotely accurate. I mean, why the sharp division between the areas north and south of 80N?

I've been wondering the same thing myself for quite some time. The 80N "boundary" seems to be quite ancient as far as the models go - even in older versions of ARC you can see it showing up in their SST maps during the summer in several years - notably 2012, 2013, and this year.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1809 on: July 05, 2015, 06:20:37 PM »
@Jim Hunt

Wow.

Holy smokes, if that's remotely accurate we're going to see some incredible drops in area and extent over the next couple of weeks.

It probably isn't remotely accurate. I mean, why the sharp division between the areas north and south of 80N?

I've been wondering the same thing myself for quite some time. The 80N "boundary" seems to be quite ancient as far as the models go - even in older versions of ARC you can see it showing up in their SST maps during the summer in several years - notably 2012, 2013, and this year.

Actually, if you look carefully at the satellite images, there actually is an obvious difference in the nature of the ice inside/outside the 80N boundary for the last week or so - at least between 90W and 180 longitude. Everything outside 80N is rubble, and everything inside is either pretty solid or totally obscured by clouds.

BTW, I've been speculating about the possible hycom username and cice password for this site might be. I just don't know :)
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/skill.html

Edit: I don't mean to imply that the reality looks like the Hycom image, which does appear extreme.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 06:40:19 PM by Nick_Naylor »

Kognsfjorden

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1810 on: July 05, 2015, 06:31:23 PM »
Newbie Question :Can anyone explain why though the DMI and Hycom models are so different in central thickness above 85 degrees ?
My understanding was they both used the same underlying code, but the DNI model shows far more MYI to the West, and less in the center than Hycom. If DMI is closer to reality western melt will be far slower.

DMI: [http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_map_thick_LA_EN_20150704.png

Hycom: [http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnowcast.gif]

PS: As an absolute reference point on melt rate, there is some good imagery from the Norwegian team at Cambridge Bay hoping to raise the hulk of the Maud and return her to Norway through the Bellot Strait on a barge this summer at: [https://www.facebook.com/maudreturnshome]
Contrast yesterday's open water view with 27 June frozen in view.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1811 on: July 05, 2015, 07:08:40 PM »
There a fairly clear view of the North Pole today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#Pole

Melt ponds encroaching from the Atlantic side. Not a lot of fragmentation as yet compared to some other years one might mention however:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2013-images/#CAB
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1812 on: July 05, 2015, 07:23:21 PM »
I mean, why the sharp division between the areas north and south of 80N?

ACNFS has something similar. See above. Here's the GOFS animation as well, which reveals how it got there.

Click the image to animate.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1813 on: July 05, 2015, 07:30:57 PM »
The July 12th forecasts for the two models diverge rather drastically.

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1814 on: July 05, 2015, 07:33:55 PM »
Quote
It typically takes a month.  We have asked for approval by the 21st of June.

You may be able to guess the username and password for the hycom cice web page.

Alan.


Indeed, I was able to guess the HYCOM CICE username and password.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1815 on: July 05, 2015, 08:06:18 PM »
Although it might not affect the 2015 melting season, the latest El Nino ensemble mean forecast puts the maximum 3 month 3.4 anomaly at about 3C, a big increase on the outlook two weeks ago. Any more than 3.0C would be literally off the charts.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1816 on: July 05, 2015, 09:05:02 PM »


Pigs may fly in mid July. Well, even if this is a haywire model, this is what a parallel meltdown would look like.

Verg  ???

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1817 on: July 05, 2015, 09:24:46 PM »


Pigs may fly in mid July. Well, even if this is a haywire model, this is what a parallel meltdown would look like.

Verg  ???

100% concentration exactly above 80 N and 700K drop? Hell of a pig
 
100% conc is a model constraint or a tweak


Vergent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1818 on: July 05, 2015, 09:32:39 PM »
It could also be that the satellite they use to force the model has an orbit with a blind spot above 80N.

Verg

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1819 on: July 05, 2015, 10:33:39 PM »
Quote
It typically takes a month.  We have asked for approval by the 21st of June.

You may be able to guess the username and password for the hycom cice web page.

Alan.


Indeed, I was able to guess the HYCOM CICE username and password.

Mmm, I wasn't.

Anyway. I don't think it was an accident that HYCOM-Global went password protected just after I had used it to say we might have a crash this year. While HYCOM-Arctic remains open, despite my blog linking to that. I don't mean to imply they read my blog, but they probably watch traffic sources referring to them and the hit count for the blog post in question was almost 1000.

I don't know what the deal is with HYCOM-global, but I'm reverting back to Arctic and not using Global.

Now I think about the state of compactness, I don't think HYCOM global is really believable, just a couple of weeks and we'll know if it's right - a staggering crash will start that will take us well below 2012.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2015, 10:46:15 PM by ChrisReynolds »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1820 on: July 05, 2015, 10:47:54 PM »
It could also be that the satellite they use to force the model has an orbit with a blind spot above 80N.

Verg

They use reanalysis system to drive the model, not a satellite. The main satellite input will be the same data we use for sea ice concentration maps, area and extent.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1821 on: July 05, 2015, 10:57:23 PM »
Quote
It typically takes a month.  We have asked for approval by the 21st of June.

You may be able to guess the username and password for the hycom cice web page.

Alan.


Indeed, I was able to guess the HYCOM CICE username and password.

Mmm, I wasn't.

Anyway. I don't think it was an accident that HYCOM-Global went password protected just after I had used it to say we might have a crash this year.

That kind of makes sense, but if that's the reason, why were they so forthcoming with the idea that it would be easy to guess the hycom/cice username/password?

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1822 on: July 05, 2015, 11:04:20 PM »
By next week there will be a significant warming of the Atlantic sector.. Let's see how the thinnest ice there will respond to that!! :)

Laptev is warming quite good close to the coast... Should do a good blowjob to the ice there next week:)

//LMV

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1823 on: July 06, 2015, 02:00:25 AM »
Quote
It typically takes a month.  We have asked for approval by the 21st of June.

You may be able to guess the username and password for the hycom cice web page.

Alan.


Indeed, I was able to guess the HYCOM CICE username and password.

Mmm, I wasn't.

Anyway. I don't think it was an accident that HYCOM-Global went password protected just after I had used it to say we might have a crash this year.

That kind of makes sense, but if that's the reason, why were they so forthcoming with the idea that it would be easy to guess the hycom/cice username/password?

...because "They" are not all of the same mind as to the propriety of keeping the data hidden from the public eye?

I really hope someone doesn't get fired over this. If that should happen to happen, I do hope that we've got that person's back.
 

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1824 on: July 06, 2015, 06:03:32 AM »

Remember anomalously high compactness early June? Wipneus' plot reveals that now it is very close to 2012 (below 2012, actually, if using CT/NSIDC SIE data)

Will area drop slow down toward extent rates, or extent drop start accelerating to eventually level off compaction?

At this time of the year, area leads and greatly influences the rate of extent; extent 'simply' follows area by the eventual drop of concentration below 15%.

If area slows down and achieves a 1980-2000 standard drop, it ends in september at about 4M km2 or slightly below, just like 2013/2014. Otoh if it achieves a extreme 2012 total drop from now to October, it ends up at about 3 M km2 (2007/2011).

Just giving some reasonable range. Expect something within it. I believe something closer to 2007/2011 because after all we are in the 2010's


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1825 on: July 06, 2015, 07:46:10 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1826 on: July 06, 2015, 07:52:14 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

I think so too

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1827 on: July 06, 2015, 08:24:56 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

I think so too

Still the thing is that low extent enables strong albedo feedback effect at the edges, high extent reduces it (a hunch of mine). So heat may keep area falling down but extent not catching up . . .

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1828 on: July 06, 2015, 08:58:57 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

I think so too

Still the thing is that low extent enables strong albedo feedback effect at the edges, high extent reduces it (a hunch of mine). So heat may keep area falling down but extent not catching up . . .

And then things start freezing over again. Melting momentum is being built up big time right now, but perhaps too late. Still no compaction and transport to speak of.

Either way, interesting to watch.  :)
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1829 on: July 06, 2015, 09:04:20 AM »
This event will be quite interesting to watch.  I think this is the biggest heat outbreak I have ever seen in the weather forecasts, going back to prior to 2012.  It certainly leaves many of the forecasts that have previously been touted for blowtorch conditions in the dust.  It is normally unusual if 0 degree 850 temps can spread through most of the Arctic, and didn't really happen at all in 2013 or 2014.  The current instance shows the 4 degree line spreading through most of the Arctic.  With a big fat high and lots of sunshine this is going to be seriously hot.  And as well as heat there is a moderate amount of wind going on as well.  Finally low compactness reflects large areas of dispersed floes within the ice pack, so plenty of places to absorb lots of solar heat to melt the ice in the near future.  I think early to mid July is the worst possible time for a major solar input - melting and albedo reduction is well advanced, and we are still close enough to the solistice that available radiation is basically at maximum.  In my opinion this event will be more damaging on the ice than the GAC 2012, and may be the most damaging week for the ice in recent history.
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bbr2314

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1830 on: July 06, 2015, 09:10:58 AM »
DMI models show rapid break-up of the thickest MYI above Baffin and Greenland... guessing possible cause is massive run-off? First image = today, second is 10th, third is current GIS losses






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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1831 on: July 06, 2015, 09:22:29 AM »
In the Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS, 2015 and 2012 are starting to look rather similar.

2012 image is rotated as EOSDIS Worldview changed its polar projection in 2013.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1832 on: July 06, 2015, 09:24:26 AM »
All hell is breaking loose.

I am sure the phrase "shit has hit the fan."

Is known through all of the Western Allied a nation's. 

It's a shame Russia sucks so much ass. The Russian side is so shallow. We could easily have a network of moored buoys on that side.


Never the less the polar vortex has been dismantled.

This is a sign that this pattern will be here a while. 

The entire low level cold pool is gone.   With Albedo running so low with mesh pack, rapidly melting snow,  and solid ice with melt ponds Albedo is running 0.40 - 0.60.  At a max average of 475-500w/m2 daily the next two weeks. 

That's a potential 240-300w/m2 over a large area that is enough to keep the air mass over the ice above freezing 24/7.



The cold pools are moving further South between 60-70N. Where land,  warmer open ocean and near bye warm air masses further South mix that cold air out.

So there is no cold regeneration over the ice or GIS.

It's the worst pattern for the ice.

And one must ask.

Is this because of albedo?????

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1833 on: July 06, 2015, 09:27:34 AM »

Remember anomalously high compactness early June? Wipneus' plot reveals that now it is very close to 2012 (below 2012, actually, if using CT/NSIDC SIE data)

Will area drop slow down toward extent rates, or extent drop start accelerating to eventually level off compaction?

At this time of the year, area leads and greatly influences the rate of extent; extent 'simply' follows area by the eventual drop of concentration below 15%.

If area slows down and achieves a 1980-2000 standard drop, it ends in september at about 4M km2 or slightly below, just like 2013/2014. Otoh if it achieves a extreme 2012 total drop from now to October, it ends up at about 3 M km2 (2007/2011).

Just giving some reasonable range. Expect something within it. I believe something closer to 2007/2011 because after all we are in the 2010's


Area will drop hard from melt pending exploding over almost the entire basin.

The CAB will plummet.

The ESS is gonna plummet.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1834 on: July 06, 2015, 09:34:59 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

I think so too

Still the thing is that low extent enables strong albedo feedback effect at the edges, high extent reduces it (a hunch of mine). So heat may keep area falling down but extent not catching up . . .

And then things start freezing over again. Melting momentum is being built up big time right now, but perhaps too late. Still no compaction and transport to speak of.

Either way, interesting to watch.  :)

I think you have PTSD from the 13/14 seasons :).


Regardless of what piomas says or area.  Surface temps are the most direct measurement of ice damage.  Yes that can mask some help from solar this year didn't get much off yet.

But things are bad enough that this will really cripple the ice.  And it looks like it's gonna last into late July.

If we get this HP domination through July the ice will be right back down to 2010-12 crapiness.

Only 2012 had a truly torch first half of July like this basin wide
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1835 on: July 06, 2015, 09:58:25 AM »
into the CAB as skies start to clear.




The real Pacific side is revealing itself. 



It's been so cloudy it has completely masked the major beat down this pre-conditioned ice took.



Without an abrupt major pattern change the Pacific side melt is gonna blow 2013/14 away. The CAA is going to melt to near 2012/12 levels.


And now the off centered HP is gonna allow the most destructive set up for Southern CAB ice.

A sunny land driven Southerly flow.

There will be days on end with 50s coming off North GIS and the CAA Islands into the CAB.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1836 on: July 06, 2015, 10:23:42 AM »
I think you have PTSD from the 13/14 seasons :).

Aptly put.  ;D

I'm going to be careful as long as I don't see a clear dipole, but I admit I can't remember when I last saw such an impressive high pressure dome (and I've been watching intently since 2010, although I have a lazy memory).
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1837 on: July 06, 2015, 10:29:59 AM »
Thank you. Had no time even to check PIOMASS itself today, werk. Few minutes, i have now. PIOMASS gives 15.263 for July 1st, roughly speaking. That is unbelievable. Too high. Someones went nuts - either someone in PIOMASS, or someone in DMI.

Don't have more time to write right now. Please do investigate if possible for me. Should be interesting.

Odd, I see nothing surprising in the PIOMAS data at all.
Odd is that you don't see nothing odd about it.

All numbers are thousands km^3. Values is what i "eye-balled" from DMI and PIOMASS volume graphs, and so should be +-150km^3, unless i've done some silly mistake doing quick ariphmetics in my head. Numbers given are losses of volume for June 1st ... July 1st period for listed years - i.e. how much ice was gone during month of June.

2011: PIOMASS 6,7; DMI 8,7
2012: PIOMASS 7,3; DMI 10,4
2013: PIOMASS 6,6; DMI 8,0
2014: PIOMASS 5,7; DMI 6,4
2015: PIOMASS 6,2; DMI 9,2

As you can see, when those two models had ~3000km^3 difference for monthly June loss last time - it was 2012, and we know what happened in September 2012. You can also see 2013 and 2014 had those two models coming into increasingly good agreement here, and i was thinking perhaps this year this tendency would continue. But no! Once again, like in 2012, we have ~3000km^3 difference.

Frankly, what use those models are, if they disagree by as much as ~50% (9,2 is ~150% of 6,2 you know)?

Anyhows, as was said in this topic recently, PIOMASS is more about long-term trend. I still put my personal faith in DMI - granted, they are not flawless and their model has its own problems, - but if 2012 is of any indication, i say this 2015 June loss of ~9200 km^3 in DMI data - is likely an early warning of things to come later in this melt season.


Thoughts?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1838 on: July 06, 2015, 10:38:01 AM »
Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.
I wouldn't go that far, ice-ages were much more "catastrophic" than some changes in sea ice. Also if one takes the "long view" it is inevitable that the climate will change, even without human intervention. This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.
Asteroid hits, super volcanoes, ..... The difference this time is that it is being caused by humans and was totally avoidable.
Avoidable? Well perhaps agriculture should not have been invented as it made  the current overpopulation of the planet possible.

edit: but all this is off-topic

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1839 on: July 06, 2015, 10:49:11 AM »
I believe extent should finally catch up with area, especially with the heat coming up.

I think so too

Still the thing is that low extent enables strong albedo feedback effect at the edges, high extent reduces it (a hunch of mine). So heat may keep area falling down but extent not catching up . . .

And then things start freezing over again. Melting momentum is being built up big time right now, but perhaps too late. Still no compaction and transport to speak of.

Either way, interesting to watch.  :)

Still,
It is true that within the Arctic Ocean extent is lower than thought at first sight from the overall numbers. Hudson Bay ice and Baffin ice are inflating the overall extent numbers.

And with the heat coming . . .

Well, but volume is pretty higher than 2014's ...

But not in the peripheral seas (I believe) . . .

Yeah interesting to watch

PS. At least the forum is heating up

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1840 on: July 06, 2015, 10:52:46 AM »
This event will be quite interesting to watch.  I think this is the biggest heat outbreak I have ever seen in the weather forecasts, going back to prior to 2012.  It certainly leaves many of the forecasts that have previously been touted for blowtorch conditions in the dust.  It is normally unusual if 0 degree 850 temps can spread through most of the Arctic, and didn't really happen at all in 2013 or 2014.  The current instance shows the 4 degree line spreading through most of the Arctic.  With a big fat high and lots of sunshine this is going to be seriously hot.  And as well as heat there is a moderate amount of wind going on as well.  Finally low compactness reflects large areas of dispersed floes within the ice pack, so plenty of places to absorb lots of solar heat to melt the ice in the near future.  I think early to mid July is the worst possible time for a major solar input - melting and albedo reduction is well advanced, and we are still close enough to the solistice that available radiation is basically at maximum.  In my opinion this event will be more damaging on the ice than the GAC 2012, and may be the most damaging week for the ice in recent history.
I completely agree with this whole post. It is exactly what i am thinking - except i didn't know about 4 degree line, myself. It's... scary.

...
Well, but volume is pretty higher than 2014's ...
...
It is now questionable. PIOMASS said July 1st volume is pretty higher than 2014's, yes (by some ~800 km^3). However, DMI says, volume is way lower than 2014's by July 1st (see my previous post for a few details about this). DMI lists July 1st 2015 volume being ~14300 km^3, July 1st 2014 - ~17500 km^3.

And may i remind you that DMI is Danish Meteorological Institute, while Greenland is Danish territory - which makes the country one of most able nations on Earth to directly measure what happens in Arctic.

Arctic cap disappearance is the most spectacular manifestation of the greatest planet catastrophe for millions of years. It is natural that it attracts curiosity and excitement. It is a black swan of gigantic proportions.
I wouldn't go that far, ice-ages were much more "catastrophic" than some changes in sea ice. Also if one takes the "long view" it is inevitable that the climate will change, even without human intervention. This time it's happening rather quickly and adaptation might get difficult.
Asteroid hits, super volcanoes, ..... The difference this time is that it is being caused by humans and was totally avoidable.
Avoidable? Well perhaps agriculture should not have been invented as it made  the current overpopulation of the planet possible.

edit: but all this is off-topic
I don't think that all this is off-topic. Whether man-made climate change is (and was) avoidable or not - has major impact on lots of things, including this particular melt season.

I calculate, anthropogenic (man-made) climate change was not in fact avoidable, nor it is now avoidable. To avoid something, you need means to do so. Humans didn't and still do not have means to avoid human-made climate change, - despite naive thoughts of most humans that it is "would be" possible. Nope, it wouldn't be.

Code: [Select]
For example, if you drive a car and there is a bus going straight head-on
to you, you only can avoid the crash if you have means to do so - i.e. operational
steering wheel and enough force of friction between wheels of your car and the
road. _Then_ you can avoid the hit. But if your car's steering wheel is simply not
present, accelerator pedal is stuck at the floor, and you're driving on ice while
using very old summer rubber - well, you can't avoid the hit.

That said, mankind never had means to avoid major long-term problems of
planetary scale, and in most instances still doesn't have. Climate change is not
the only problem of the sort.

Why mankind is and was unable to "avoid" climate change and other massive
long-term planetary-scale problems? In a nutshell, because humans are not
made for avoiding such things. Humans do not have means to "steer away"
from those. They do not have eyes which see around the globe directly, they
do not have brains which are capable to prioretize long-term stability over
maximizing shorter-term gains (and those two goals usually mutually exclusive).
We're not bees nor ants, most of us care about their own life the most. We, on
average, are not smart enough to realize even a fraction of the events which are,
in sum, true consequences of our actions, - not because humans are so dumb,
but because full scale of the picture is extremely very difficult to comprehend,
due to huge size and complexity of Earth's biosphere, athmosphere and upper
crust, and tremendous amount of subtle cause-consequence relations in the world.

The only possible thing was to slow down climate change somewhat more, with
more, larger and earlier actions directed to achieve it. But frankly, end result
would be the same. Intellect of an individual animal - human-like intellect, - which
allows the passage of non-genetic information to next generations (and thus
accumulation of it) via writing, - is the terminal mutation. Terminal to most species
on the planet, since this ability totally destroys ecosystems' balance in favor of
such an animal (human). Indeed, how could Nature survive against oil rigs,
bulldozers, chemical warfare, elephant rifles, fishing trails, etc?

So, i don't cast blame on mankind. It evolved into terminal mutation - no idea if it
will be self-terminal, but terminal to lots of other species at least. Which right now
makes other species extinct thousands times faster than normal pre-industrial rate
(which is well documented by now and is a fact). We humans had no more chances
to "avoid" present climate change than fish in the oceans have chances to live longer
than a thousand-year-old sequoia tree. We humans make decisions based on "here
and now" and NOT based on what effect our actions will have hundreds and thousands
years later. Which is why we fuck up the planet, once we became the ultimate predator
who's not threatened by ANY other species of the planet. In other words, present
mankind's case - is clearly an overshoot case of planetary scale. Overshoots always
end in massive population decline at least, and quite often - even in the species'
extinction. Our intellect gives hope it won't be the latter in our case, but i don't think
mankind will be able to dodge the former.

In short, it is our nature to fuck up our own planet, we already did much of that, and
we do more right now, and we'll keep doing it for centuries to come, often to the best
of our ability. The interesting question is where we'll go from there when the planet
will be completely fucked up, and whether we'll be able to go anywhere at all. And
no, i don't mean space. I mean if we humans will find any way (and any desire) to
live on this fucked up planet, when nearly no other life would remain on it. If not,
we'll extinct as species. If we'll find some way, then perhaps much later, after new
Dark Ages, human nature will be changed enough to make something sustainable
from human technologicus.


Few examples of present-day long-term planetary problems, to conculde this note.

6th Great extinction is another - and so far, it's mostly caused not by climate, but
directly by the sum of human activities, such as deforestation, agricultural soil erosion,
turning and damming rivers, breaking nitrogen cycle, overfishing and overhunting,
introducing thousands of chemicals Nature had no time to adapt to (pesticides,
herbicides, etc), and so on.

Yet another planetary-scale problem - is peak fossils. Of which, "peak oil" is a part.
Fossils already became much more expensive to get - not in terms of money, but in
terms of EROEI. Shale and tar operations are now widespread, but those are last-resort
measures, as obvious from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EROI_-_Ratio_of_Energy_Returned_on_Energy_Invested_-_USA.svg.

One more major thing is fragility of globalized industrial activities. Economies of scale
dictate transition to global-scale network of specialized producers. It's cheaper to make
specific things for the whole world in a single huge factory/plant - no argument about it.
However, this leads to increasingly complex network of interdependant producers, and
the more specialization exists, the more fragile whole industrial process becomes to
any loss of any single/few parts of the system. For example, when in 2011 one plant
making specific electronic components for cars was stopped (Tsunami and all) for
several months, - nearly half of car industry in the USA was halted as well.

There are more planetary scale problems than possible to even mention here. Ones
in economy, in politics, in sociology, in epidemiology, in military establishemtns, -
each potentially capable to wipe most of mankind off the face of the Earth in mere
years, potentially. What is being done about all those long-term problems? Little.
Mankind still exists on 7+ billions scale only because all those problems are very
new, in long term thinking. Most are only appeared during last few decades -
together with widespread industrial way of life. Like the people of Easter Island,
mankind today mainly still sticks to old ways, including cutting down trees. And like
people of Easter Island, once all trees are gone, large cut in population will occur -
and i mean cut trees both literally (nearly half Earth's trees is gone last ~40 years),
and figuratively.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2015, 01:42:19 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1841 on: July 06, 2015, 11:16:48 AM »
The current air mass advocating over the Pacific side brings clear skies and surface temps into the 2-3C range over a large area of the Pacific side the next 24-30 hrs. 

It's extremely hard to maintain that so it cools in the 36-54 hour range.   However the CAB is going to see 1-2.5C temps basically non stop.

This is a volume/area crushing pattern.

But not extent.   



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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1842 on: July 06, 2015, 12:59:53 PM »
...
This is a volume/area crushing pattern.
...
Yet, CT lists day 184 loss of area as a mere ~12k. Which by the way increases the potential for record-smashing drop, something like 700k discussed slightly above.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1843 on: July 06, 2015, 01:06:05 PM »
...
This is a volume/area crushing pattern.
...
Yet, CT lists day 184 loss of area as a mere ~12k. Which by the way increases the potential for record-smashing drop, something like 700k discussed slightly above.

According to Wipneus' pre-calculations this 12K will be followed by a 212K and 102K drop.

Biggest daily drop in the 2006-2015 period has occurred on May 1st 2008: 437,038 km2.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1844 on: July 06, 2015, 01:17:27 PM »
I know.

Neven, about volume loss in June - is there any hard satellite data about it? I am still curious who's closer to the truth - DMI or PIOMASS...
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1845 on: July 06, 2015, 02:00:36 PM »


The one day data you bring up is actually 2-3 days old. 


And  the last two days area dropped like 330K.





The different in heights is a totally new pattern and the pattern coming on right more
Now is epic.

The 06z gfs is the most epic melt OP run I've ever seen
going back to 2010.

June 2nd



Two days from now



8.5 days from now

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1846 on: July 06, 2015, 02:24:55 PM »
The one day data you bring up is actually 2-3 days old. 
...
Yep, exactly. It's from here, where it's still latest available at the moment. I guess CT folks have their weekend, eh. Or may be something in numbers they can't believe, and so they check and verify and re-verify before making it public?

Just my imagination, please don't quote elsewhere. :D

I believe they got those tresholds when ice is not counted ice anymore, if a cell has less than set % of ice; i frogot exact percentage for CryoToday. When lots of cells are just slightly above that value, and then many of them drop just slightly below that, "artificial" area cliff may happen. I remember this discussed in past years... i think.

And about melt OP: yep, it's scary alright. Some 480...500 W/m2 across most of the Arctic right into all those melt ponds, 24/7. Export? Who needs export if _this_ happens, eh. The ~Pole is clear sky now, too. And ponds definitely grew much bigger during last weekend, too. I wonder why bottom ~half of the picture was not transmitted.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1847 on: July 06, 2015, 02:42:53 PM »
I know.

Neven, about volume loss in June - is there any hard satellite data about it? I am still curious who's closer to the truth - DMI or PIOMASS...

No hard satellite data. We can't know the absolute truth. All I can say, is that PIOMAS has a darn good track record so far.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1848 on: July 06, 2015, 02:51:40 PM »
Two days from now



8.5 days from now


1030-1035 hPa is serious shit. This melting season is simply 2014+heat. And now major insolation as well. I don't know, could this kill the 'rebound'?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1849 on: July 06, 2015, 02:54:02 PM »
No hard satellite data. We can't know the absolute truth. All I can say, is that PIOMAS has a darn good track record so far.
Yeah well, not so long ago in its topic (linked here recently) someone pasted two paragraphs from a paper, which is about major problems with snow counted as ice by cryosat II (was it?). PIOMASS feeds on that data (and that error), i assume. But it's really hard to imagine extra thousands cubic kilometers of snow present there _now_, to me. Couldn't be that, right?

I was and still am thinking, the gap between "absolute truth" and two reputable ice volume estimation systems showing a difference of three (!) thousands cubic kilometers of ice for June 2015 loss, - can (and tbh, should) be reduced much, by rational comparison of satellite data. Not skilled to do it myself, those fortran programs are alienware to me...
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