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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1900 on: July 07, 2015, 07:20:59 PM »
If you compare the ablation stake yesterday (first image) and today (second image), it seems to be deeper today. Either the storm brought some fresh snow or the ice is so soft that the stake is digging itself deeper into the ice.

Definitely about 10 cm of wet fresh snow, quite amazing with such 850 hPa temps even though it is 5 a.m. or something up there. The snow will help, but the wind and waves might do some damage. Wonder if this weather hits Buoy 12 which sits just to the north of this camera.

Hmmm. I am pretty sure the stake is giving in, i.e sinks into the ice. Compare these two images

image 1
image 2
Sometimes I should look closer before jumping to conclusions :-[. You, and everyone else who pointed this out, are completely correct in your assertions.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1901 on: July 07, 2015, 07:36:10 PM »
It looks like the stakes are no longer high.  ;) ;D
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1902 on: July 07, 2015, 08:25:32 PM »
Thanks, S.Pansa,
Marks on the surface before and after 'prove' there is no new snow.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1903 on: July 07, 2015, 09:13:39 PM »
There's some interesting IMB buoy temperature profiles around at the moment. Let's first take a look at 2013F, which has been circulating in the Beaufort Gyre for a couple of years now. Here's this year's on top, and last year's below, so let's play "spot the difference":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2013F-Temp

According to the bottom sounder the ice floe under 2013F recently got thicker. However the thermistors reveal that there is a thick lens of warm (and presumably fresh) water that's fooling the sounder. In actual fact there has been at least 20 cm of bottom melt, and what's left of the floe is all above -1 °C.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1904 on: July 07, 2015, 09:38:21 PM »
Beaufort now being pounded with warm storm. obuoys already ramped up to about 8 m/s winds. And this ablation stake
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/camera2.jpg

is quite unlikely to see the end of the day.

If you compare the ablation stake yesterday (first image) and today (second image), it seems to be deeper today. Either the storm brought some fresh snow or the ice is so soft that the stake is digging itself deeper into the ice.




850mb temps in the 10C range.


So not snow.


Also the new narrative that 2015 has been like 2014 is very very inaccurate.

If this is going to keep being reprated I'd like to see some evidence.
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1905 on: July 07, 2015, 09:50:12 PM »
I think the stake is leaning more toward the camera today.  Note the changed difference between the distance between ice edge (on marker) and the ice melt ring (where marker disappears): ~32 cm yesterday to ~35 cm today.  If the stake was leaning more away from the camera today, we'd see more of the lowest white square, I think, not less.

The ice edge does not appear to have changed and the melt ring around the stake appears unchanged (so no edge erosion or new snow).  Of course, this analysis assumes the camera height and distance from stake have not changed!
What has been noticeable on other floes in the background is that lateral melt eats away ice at (and below) the waterline and leaves the surface overhanging the edge by sometimes considerable distances. My interpretation is that this means the actual edge of the floe has reached the stake and it is dropping though with the wave(lets?) nibbling at its foot
« Last Edit: July 07, 2015, 11:01:54 PM by Andreas T »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1906 on: July 07, 2015, 10:32:28 PM »
Also the new narrative that 2015 has been like 2014 is very very inaccurate.

If this is going to keep being reprated I'd like to see some evidence.

Friv, I find 2015 similar to 2014 when it comes to movement in the Arctic. I see 2014 as the year of in situ melting. Except for a week or two in June it has been the same for 2015, except that 2015 so far has been much warmer (but started out slow, with compactness coming down with a delay as well). This is probably going to make the difference, even though 2015 has more volume than 2014 (difference has been halved in the past month, though, according to PIOMAS, and most of the difference is in the CAB).

So, if I had to choose at this moment in time which melting season I find 2015 resembles the most, I'd go for 2014, although I saw some similarities with 2011 as well, when comparing SAT and SLP maps. But again, this year is much warmer, and that heat is probably going to make itself felt in such a way that the similarity disappears again.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1907 on: July 07, 2015, 11:40:10 PM »
You can get the barbecue out again Neven:

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1908 on: July 07, 2015, 11:54:47 PM »
The barbecue never went out, Jim:  :'(

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1909 on: July 08, 2015, 01:05:45 AM »
The next ice mass balance buoy on the list is 2014F, currently at just over 75 N. A more conventional looking profile, but 35 cm of both surface and bottom melt by July 1st, and the whole floe warmer than the -1.3 °C water beneath it.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2014F

Unfortunately there's no camera pointing at this one, but I could easily be persuaded that the top sounder is only measuring the top of a melt pond rather than the ice itself:
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 01:19:51 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1910 on: July 08, 2015, 01:07:55 AM »
I'd say 2015 is similar to 2012 because it has a mix of both open water between dispersed floes and strong surface melting, due to a combination of some low pressure activity alternating with warmer sunnier weather.  In contrast 13 and 14 both had significant dispersed floes, but low surface melt as low pressure tended to dominate, especially in 13.

Everyone looks at different aspects when assessing what is going on.  Try and put it all together for the best picture.

My memory is probably about as fuzzy as Neven's, and it tells me that the strength of the high pressure is not remarkable compared to what I've seen in the past, but the amount of heat is.  Looking through the past charts shows what to me looks like a bigger high pressure system in 2011, but if I follow the instructions and then look at 850 Hp temperature, the area under 0 degree in 2011 is still a large part of the Arctic, whereas in this event there is almost no area under 0 degrees left.  The first week of July 2012 has a weaker high pressure dome with 850 temps that are closer, but still seem somewhat short of what is forecast.  How comparable the GFS forecast is to the ESRL PSD reanalysis I'm not sure.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1911 on: July 08, 2015, 03:52:31 AM »
Again, presuming the 17-19 KWH/Square Meter/day of insolation crashing down...

Assume albedo at about .5...

That's good enough to strip off 6CM of ice of the top each day, with SST's at or slightly above zero.

Open water will pick up enough energy to tear apart 10CM +

Not heartening.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1912 on: July 08, 2015, 03:55:58 AM »
Here's a rare thing: a well-written piece about the 2015 melt season written for a general audience.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-sea-ice-peak-melt-19192

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1913 on: July 08, 2015, 05:15:57 AM »
The barbecue never went out, Jim:  :'(



The image gets overlaid by a different tiling if you zoom-out any further, so some may have missed it (it is also only visible via Aqua/MODIS) . . . It looks like smoke is being drawn all the way into the central arctic, almost like a moisture tap of high perceptible waters.
 

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1914 on: July 08, 2015, 08:15:14 AM »
Nice plume of smoke and the boundary envisioned by hycom GLB at 80°latitude becomes obvious.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1915 on: July 08, 2015, 09:16:15 AM »
As reported elsewhere by Nightvid Cole, the 2015 June NH snow cover is the second lowest on record:

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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1916 on: July 08, 2015, 09:36:16 AM »
My memory is probably about as fuzzy as Neven's,

I hope for your sake it isn't so.  ;D


Quote
and it tells me that the strength of the high pressure is not remarkable compared to what I've seen in the past, but the amount of heat is.  Looking through the past charts shows what to me looks like a bigger high pressure system in 2011, but if I follow the instructions and then look at 850 Hp temperature, the area under 0 degree in 2011 is still a large part of the Arctic, whereas in this event there is almost no area under 0 degrees left.  The first week of July 2012 has a weaker high pressure dome with 850 temps that are closer, but still seem somewhat short of what is forecast.  How comparable the GFS forecast is to the ESRL PSD reanalysis I'm not sure.

Nice to see someone making use of the now defunct SLP Patterns page on the ASIG (should have thought about that myself). Here's a comparison of average SLP for July 1st-6th between 2011 (right) and 2015 (left) (actually it's July 1st to 5th for 2015, I'll do another one tomorrow):
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1917 on: July 08, 2015, 09:40:10 AM »
It looks like the stakes are no longer high.  ;) ;D
Never were. One mankind to roast, check. Next order? :D
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gerrit

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1918 on: July 08, 2015, 09:46:13 AM »
Again, presuming the 17-19 KWH/Square Meter/day of insolation crashing down...


Hold your horse(power)s for a second and do a quick sanity check. Let's use the pole. Maybe you forgot the projection effect?
Sun zenith currently 22.5 degrees, insolation reaching surface max 1000W perpendicular to sun; gives you 382W or about 9kWh/m2/day.

About the 1000W - that is absolute max for somewhere near the equator. Remember that sunlight at pole needs to traverse 2.6 times more atmosphere to reach the surface than at the equator, where it already loses about 350W. I'm sure there is accurate numbers somewhere, but my gut says not much more than 750W reaches the surface.

So, still bad, especially with all the broken ice (lower albedo at edges), but not quite *that* bad  ;)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1919 on: July 08, 2015, 09:48:21 AM »
Beaufort now being pounded with warm storm. obuoys already ramped up to about 8 m/s winds. And this ablation stake
http://iabp.apl.washington.edu/camera2.jpg

is quite unlikely to see the end of the day.

If you compare the ablation stake yesterday (first image) and today (second image), it seems to be deeper today. Either the storm brought some fresh snow or the ice is so soft that the stake is digging itself deeper into the ice.



at the risk of seeming obsessive about the poor little ablation stake here is an update on it's way into the ocean:


What this shows is two things: the under cutting I described earlier melts more strongly at the water surface and left a shelf below the waterline (I think an example of that can be seen on the left hand side of the large floe in the background) so the stake now stands on the underwater shelf. The other thing is that there is a "hole" around the stake . I attribute that to the fact that the stake  has been warmer than the ice over the last few weeks. The ice is more transparent than the stake and the solar radiation which isn't reflected is to some extent spreading into the floe (contributing to bottom melt for example) The stake on the other hand is warmed at its surface by any solar radiation which isn't reflected.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1920 on: July 08, 2015, 10:13:32 AM »
About the 1000W - that is absolute max for somewhere near the equator. Remember that sunlight at pole needs to traverse 2.6 times more atmosphere to reach the surface than at the equator, where it already loses about 350W. I'm sure there is accurate numbers somewhere, but my gut says not much more than 750W reaches the surface.

So, still bad, especially with all the broken ice (lower albedo at edges), but not quite *that* bad  ;)
If sunlight were the only thing causing melt you would be right. Unfortunately you have incoming warm water from the neighbouring oceans, wind, waves, humidity, algae, interaction between water and air through the ice ..... some well understand some very little understood, but all have an impact.   You can have a melt season with a lot of sunlight, but if for some reason the temps stay low, you will have little melt. OTOH if the conditions are right such has wind and wind direction, you have very little sunlight you can still have a lot of melt. The Arctic is a very complex chaotic environment where all elements play a role in melt and I am certain we will never really understand how everything works together just because of its chaotic nature. Not that we should not try, but must always keep in mind no one thing is more important than any other and that isolating it from the globe will always give you bad answers.
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Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1921 on: July 08, 2015, 10:23:35 AM »
Again, presuming the 17-19 KWH/Square Meter/day of insolation crashing down...


Hold your horse(power)s for a second and do a quick sanity check. Let's use the pole. Maybe you forgot the projection effect?
Sun zenith currently 22.5 degrees, insolation reaching surface max 1000W perpendicular to sun; gives you 382W or about 9kWh/m2/day.

About the 1000W - that is absolute max for somewhere near the equator. Remember that sunlight at pole needs to traverse 2.6 times more atmosphere to reach the surface than at the equator, where it already loses about 350W. I'm sure there is accurate numbers somewhere, but my gut says not much more than 750W reaches the surface.

So, still bad, especially with all the broken ice (lower albedo at edges), but not quite *that* bad  ;)

To get another check on numbers here is insolation (daily average) from a weather station on greenland:
http://www.promice.dk/WeatherArchive.html?stationid=115
It is at a latitude of roughly 80deg (from position on map)
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 10:29:50 AM by Andreas T »

gerrit

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1922 on: July 08, 2015, 10:40:47 AM »
...
So, still bad, especially with all the broken ice (lower albedo at edges), but not quite *that* bad  ;)

If sunlight were the only thing causing melt you would be right. Unfortunately you have incoming warm water from the neighbouring oceans, wind, waves, humidity, algae, interaction between water and air through the ice ..... some well understand some very little understood, but all have an impact.   You can have a melt season with a lot of sunlight, but if for some reason the temps stay low, you will have little melt. OTOH if the conditions are right such has wind and wind direction, you have very little sunlight you can still have a lot of melt. The Arctic is a very complex chaotic environment where all elements play a role in melt and I am certain we will never really understand how everything works together just because of its chaotic nature. Not that we should not try, but must always keep in mind no one thing is more important than any other and that isolating it from the globe will always give you bad answers.

Yes, yes, I fully agree with you. My point was only that the specific solar insulation is not as bad as the 18 kWh/m2/day that jdallen assumed. Yes, the arctic falling apart is VERY bad.

But just another point on insulation. According to this plot from Tamino, albedo is actually lower over cloudy, open ocean than over clear ice, especially at high latitudes. So I think one of the many dangers of a HP like the current one, is the amount of compaction it causes, leaving open ocean that will absorb heat come sun or rain. (I hope you all read Tamino's posts from time to time. He's got a fantastic way of discussing hard-core scientific stuff so that normal people can understand it.)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1923 on: July 08, 2015, 11:02:34 AM »



Ok folks it's time to break down SIA by region 2014 vs 2015.

So of it is a + it means 2015 has more ice.  Minus means the opposite.

Central arctic basin: -500K
Kara: -190K
Chuchki: -100K
ESS: -100K
CAA: -60K

Hudson: +175K
Baffin: +225K
Greenland Sea: +75K
Laptev: +125KBeaufort: +65K


It's pretty clear that 2015 has 500K of easy ice on top of 2014.

Throw in the Kara to offset it a bit and its still around +300 of extra sure loss ice.

The basin will probably drop another 300K the next week.

The ESS and Laptev could see big losses especially the ESS.

But the CAB will see a cliff with this pattern ruling.

SSTS have exploded in warmth again pushing into the Chuchki

So yeah here are SSTA with a Southerly flow pushing over the Beaufort open water towards the Chuchki with a Southerly flow pushing from the Chuchki open water to ESS.






It's been a while since we had current weather like this.






Both the euro and GFS stayed worse.

The euro dropped the rogue SLP over the Beaufort.

The ensemble means are endlessly brutal.

This is a big big summer melt changing event for this season
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1924 on: July 08, 2015, 11:07:48 AM »
Also the new narrative that 2015 has been like 2014 is very very inaccurate.

If this is going to keep being reprated I'd like to see some evidence.

Friv, I find 2015 similar to 2014 when it comes to movement in the Arctic. I see 2014 as the year of in situ melting. Except for a week or two in June it has been the same for 2015, except that 2015 so far has been much warmer (but started out slow, with compactness coming down with a delay as well). This is probably going to make the difference, even though 2015 has more volume than 2014 (difference has been halved in the past month, though, according to PIOMAS, and most of the difference is in the CAB).

So, if I had to choose at this moment in time which melting season I find 2015 resembles the most, I'd go for 2014, although I saw some similarities with 2011 as well, when comparing SAT and SLP maps. But again, this year is much warmer, and that heat is probably going to make itself felt in such a way that the similarity disappears again.

I would agree with 2011.  Especially with the current pattern locking in.

But I see no similarities to 2014. 

If this isn't convincing about 2015 nothing will be.






That is very awful.

Wayyyy to much open water between the ice.

We are talking 1 to 10 mile gaps all over.

Thats 0.08 albedo taking up 30-50% of the Space that ice occupies.

That will almost guarantee this entire a side melting out
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1925 on: July 08, 2015, 11:43:31 AM »
Friv, i instantly recognised a Venus shape on two pictures you just provided, and during cutting the fragment, i also realized there is a Mars symbol nearby. So to speak, that is... I added 'em symbols near corresponding shapes. Look:


Crazey, eh?  :o

P.S. Filename is rather rude, but i think it fits the situation better than nearly any other.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1926 on: July 08, 2015, 12:12:26 PM »
I present my final piece of extremely Stark evidence 2015 is getting racked vs 2014.

This animation shows the very clear difference between 2014/15 and its not even close.



Its

Not even close


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1927 on: July 08, 2015, 12:44:42 PM »
SSTS have exploded in warmth again pushing into the Chuchki

So yeah here are SSTA with a Southerly flow pushing over the Beaufort open water towards the Chuchki with a Southerly flow pushing from the Chuchki open water to ESS.

I wonder how much such a pool of very hot surface water can contribute, and did contribute in 2012 and 2007, to bottom melt and volume loss during later stages of the melting season. Fragmented ice floes getting into contact with >5 C water would melt rather quickly I imagine.

Nice plume of smoke and the boundary envisioned by hycom GLB at 80°latitude becomes obvious.

Indeed, hypcom GLB clearly isn't pure fantasy, I would say it looks like a much better estimate than DMI and also better than hypcom ARC. But that smoke won't do much to melt the ice I suspect, it is just blocking the sun.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1928 on: July 08, 2015, 01:02:41 PM »
Smoke may dilute or go away in a couple of days, but deposited ash lasts for weeks. I lived in SoCal coast for a while, enough time to experience the consequences of two huge Santa Ana fires (hundred-thousands acres).

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1929 on: July 08, 2015, 01:05:51 PM »
Indeed, hypcom GLB clearly isn't pure fantasy, I would say it looks like a much better estimate than DMI and also better than hypcom ARC. But that smoke won't do much to melt the ice I suspect, it is just blocking the sun.

Yep, I for one have no idea what impact forest fires might have.

On the one hand, smoke would block the sun and deposition of white ash on previously darker areas might increase albedo.

On the other, forest fires generate a lot of heat, and dark soot deposition on snow and ice might decrease albedo.

Longer term, I don't know whether (cooling) transpiration thanks to post-fire regrowth is greater or lesser than transpiration thanks to pre-fire forests.

No idea how much each of these factors would play in, and I also suspect a lot would depend on wind direction.  But there's a fair bit of evidence for dark soot playing a role in ice melt.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1930 on: July 08, 2015, 01:15:28 PM »
Indeed, hypcom GLB clearly isn't pure fantasy, I would say it looks like a much better estimate than DMI and also better than hypcom ARC. But that smoke won't do much to melt the ice I suspect, it is just blocking the sun.

Yep, I for one have no idea what impact forest fires might have.

On the one hand, smoke would block the sun and deposition of white ash on previously darker areas might increase albedo.

On the other, forest fires generate a lot of heat, and dark soot deposition on snow and ice might decrease albedo.

Longer term, I don't know whether (cooling) transpiration thanks to post-fire regrowth is greater or lesser than transpiration thanks to pre-fire forests.

No idea how much each of these factors would play in, and I also suspect a lot would depend on wind direction.  But there's a fair bit of evidence for dark soot playing a role in ice melt.

Yes, it seems smoke clouds can reduce radiation reaching the ice, and particles may seed cloud formation

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080724220104.htm

effect during for weeks too.

Didnt know this

Paddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1931 on: July 08, 2015, 01:27:43 PM »
Also, I can't find any good source on overall rates of northern hemisphere forest fires by year, but it looks like both 2012 and 2014 were big years for forest fires (in slightly different places).  So... it's a bit of a wash from that perspective.

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1932 on: July 08, 2015, 01:30:36 PM »
The question is; who much ash that has to deposit to make some real difference? In greenland inpurites accumulates over time and pop up every year, but the sea ice in Chukchi is supposed to melt within a couple of weeks and the albedo is already lowered substantially by ponding and increased amounts of open water. The loss in albedo that would result from increased melt when no ash is blocking the sun might even be the higher than loss of albedo caused by ash depositing in the ice.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1933 on: July 08, 2015, 01:44:48 PM »
I believe the short term effect of blocking the sun in July is more imporatnt than resultant albedo later in regards to sea ice, except maybe the very thick MY floes. In Greenland it's the opposite.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1934 on: July 08, 2015, 02:04:55 PM »
I believe the short term effect of blocking the sun in July is more imporatnt than resultant albedo later in regards to sea ice, except maybe the very thick MY floes. In Greenland it's the opposite.

I noticed that the article mentions that smoke can also lead to heating of higher layers of atmosphere compared to the surface and that this may actually inhibit cloud formation. If this occurs, some of the reduced insolation would be offset by the increase in insolation from reduced clouds.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1935 on: July 08, 2015, 02:06:02 PM »
Since noone mentioned it, i rather would.

Anything within the athmosphere which in some way blocks radiation - often works both ways. I.e., there is not only reduced amount of Sun's energy which reaches the surface (that is, if a given substance is not hugely transparent to all major sunlight's frequences), but also reduced amount of energy which ends up radiated back into space (that is, if same given substance is not hugely transparent to all major frequences radiated by Earth, most importantly IR bands).

Forest fires, for example, produce lots of black soot. Sure, that blocks much of sunlight. However, what you think will happen when IR photons from the surface of Arctic go up? Obviously, lots of them will be blocked by the same soot. And then that soot will re-radiate, probably also some IR, and much of that will go back down - instead of happily ending up in space and starting its journey to far reaches of our pretty Universe.

Calculating these balances is still well beyond the scope of truly detailed and precise 3d modelling of Earth's athmosphere, i believe. With all sorts of frequences, substances, densities of particulates (which change all the time in every direction), it's a nightmare for any modeller...

P.S. Oh, and we do have an excellent example of "there is lots and lots of things in the athmosphere" nearby - planet Venus. If it's of any indication, then we can massively oversimplify and generalize by stating this: when there is lots of dense and non-transparent things in the sthmosphere - surface temperature tends to be higher than otherwise it'd be. My personal assumption to the cause of this is rather simple: incoming radiation is more energetic than secondary radiation which the planet radiates back, and due to higher energy, incoming radiation penetrates "deeper" per photon per meter than secondary radiation, and therefore, average case is a photon which ended up deep enough into semi-transparent athmosphere than it's needed for another average photon to have average chances to be radiated back into space. It's sort of a trap. Then, of course, with constant income of more and more sunlight over time, the "extra bit" accumulates, being re-radiated in any random direction (including downrards). This explanation might be clumsy and hugely rudimentated, but i think it grasps the cause of Venus' very high surface temperature somewhat.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 02:17:42 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1936 on: July 08, 2015, 02:27:45 PM »
For the fires in northern Hemisphere I did collect these two graphs :
(One from Jason Box)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1937 on: July 08, 2015, 02:34:00 PM »
Smoke is interesting, so is the coming warmth...But, I am concerned with the moisture that is already there...

http://i.imgur.com/ST5Czrc.png

There is a tongue of moisture intruding from the Chukchi (up to 30 kg/m^2) that disappears in the coming days...

http://i.imgur.com/jCSCPxt.png

There may be some rain or snow, but mostly there is surface condensation that melts 7 kg of ice for each kg of condensation.

Verg
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 02:44:42 PM by Vergent »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1938 on: July 08, 2015, 02:42:34 PM »
Here is 2010, 11, and 12 showing different parts of July/August they were in cooler vortex dominated patterns.

2010 had a long ass one




2011 not as long but still had a sizeable period with favorable weather



2012 had the smallest one




But they all did.  Keep that in mind when there is this idea sy times there was wall to wall dipoles.

Now this year will likely spend the next few weeks with a dipole/major ridging.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1939 on: July 08, 2015, 03:23:52 PM »
...
Now this year will likely spend the next few weeks with a dipole/major ridging.
This reminds me weather forecasts during July/August 2010 in central Russia. Moscovites were told week after week, - for some 5 or 6 weeks in a row, - that "it is likely" the high pressure would go away in just couple days, and that "it is likely" those peat fires will ease up, and that "it is likely" extraordinary heat can't last any much more.

Guess what, it did.

What i mean is this: well, how do you _know_ next few weeks will be major ridging? It's rhetorical, of course. Besides, it'd be sure interesting to see Arctic frying up for months on end. Western Europe got its summer cooking in 2003, Russia in 2010, dozens thousands people killed in both cases, and to be honest, i don't doubt "if" similar thing - in terms of persistent temperature and pressure anomalies - would happen in Arctic; i only doubt "when". May be "now"? Why not. Long over-due, imho.
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Paddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1940 on: July 08, 2015, 04:12:20 PM »
@Laurent,

Interesting graphs.  I wouldn't be surprised if this year's line is on the high end for the year so far.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1941 on: July 08, 2015, 04:23:54 PM »
...
Now this year will likely spend the next few weeks with a dipole/major ridging.
This reminds me weather forecasts during July/August 2010 in central Russia. Moscovites were told week after week, - for some 5 or 6 weeks in a row, - that "it is likely" the high pressure would go away in just couple days, and that "it is likely" those peat fires will ease up, and that "it is likely" extraordinary heat can't last any much more.

Guess what, it did.

What i mean is this: well, how do you _know_ next few weeks will be major ridging? It's rhetorical, of course. Besides, it'd be sure interesting to see Arctic frying up for months on end. Western Europe got its summer cooking in 2003, Russia in 2010, dozens thousands people killed in both cases, and to be honest, i don't doubt "if" similar thing - in terms of persistent temperature and pressure anomalies - would happen in Arctic; i only doubt "when". May be "now"? Why not. Long over-due, imho.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1942 on: July 08, 2015, 05:51:48 PM »
But that smoke won't do much to melt the ice I suspect, it is just blocking the sun.

Interesting comments about airborne black carbon's effect on the Arctic, from http://www.epa.gov/blackcarbon/2012report/Chapter2.pdf Section 2.6.4
(EPA report to U.S. Congress, no doubt appreciated ::) ).

"Over a highly reflective surface like the Arctic, BC particles absorb solar radiation and warm the atmosphere above and within the haze layer, while simultaneously contributing to surface dimming. Rather than a cooling effect from surface dimming, however, the atmospheric heating increases the downward longwave radiation and causes warming at the surface (Shaw and Stamnes, 1980; Quinn et al., 2008; Mauritsen et al., 2011). Any warming particle above a highly reflective surface can lead to heating of the entire surface–atmosphere aerosol column. In addition, the stable atmosphere above the Arctic prevents rapid heat exchange with the upper troposphere, increasing surface warming in the Arctic (Hansen and Nazarenko, 2004; Quinn et al., 2008)."


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1943 on: July 08, 2015, 06:42:32 PM »
Again, presuming the 17-19 KWH/Square Meter/day of insolation crashing down...


Hold your horse(power)s for a second and do a quick sanity check. Let's use the pole. Maybe you forgot the projection effect?
Sun zenith currently 22.5 degrees, insolation reaching surface max 1000W perpendicular to sun; gives you 382W or about 9kWh/m2/day.

About the 1000W - that is absolute max for somewhere near the equator. Remember that sunlight at pole needs to traverse 2.6 times more atmosphere to reach the surface than at the equator, where it already loses about 350W. I'm sure there is accurate numbers somewhere, but my gut says not much more than 750W reaches the surface.

So, still bad, especially with all the broken ice (lower albedo at edges), but not quite *that* bad  ;)

Actually, I stand by my numbers; my estimate is based on much less than 750W/M2 - about 450 - and I'm applying Albedo before coming up with my 6CM/day estimate.  And of *course* I'm assuming cloudless skies for this.  My earlier point is, close to half the Arctic *is* consistently in sunshine right now, and getting this dose of heat.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1944 on: July 08, 2015, 07:14:50 PM »
In forecasts, the Huge High and small low over Eurasian side persist for days pulling air mass toward Barentz instead of Fram Strait. Does this qualify as the "Arctic Dipole"?

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1945 on: July 08, 2015, 07:46:52 PM »
Wipneus reports an - almost - double century break for CT SIA. And the beat goes on...

In forecasts, the Huge High and small low over Eurasian side persist for days pulling air mass toward Barentz instead of Fram Strait. Does this qualify as the "Arctic Dipole"?

Well, if two poles are involved, it is a Di-pole, and I don't know if it matters s much whether sea ice goes through Fram to the North Atlantic, or through Victoria Channel (did I get the name right? ;-) ) to the Barentsz Sea. Either way, it has to keep up for a while to really damage the ice pack. Sea ice is conserved best when conditions are continuously switching back and forth.
« Last Edit: July 08, 2015, 07:56:16 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1946 on: July 08, 2015, 08:29:21 PM »
In forecasts, the Huge High and small low over Eurasian side persist for days pulling air mass toward Barentz instead of Fram Strait. Does this qualify as the "Arctic Dipole"?

And with this question my dam breaks...

Time for a long boring Reynolds comment.

Back in 2012 I wrote:

Quote
In the past I've been using Wu's definition of AD index, that the index is positive with when pressure over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and Greenland is high, and pressure over the Siberian sector is low. Now however Overland, who seems to be running the lead in this issue, has for several papers used the opposite definition. So from now on I'll be using Overland's definition.

So using Overland's definition we have low over the Siberian coast and high over the Arctic Ocean and Greenland. So Overland's definition reads this as a low index AD.



Here is 2012's JJA average SLP, annotated.



As of today we have a very strong Fram dipole between a low over Scandinavia, and the Greenland high. It is in the nature of lows that the cyclonic centres move around rather rapidly. So this Fram state doesn't persist. But we have a strong high pressure over the Arctic, and that will probably induce lows off Siberia which will be transitory, but whose effect will add to the average.

I have studied the SLP in hovmoeller's and what is striking is that even in a year like 2012 the dipoles are transitory, but that doesn't matter, it is the average that matters. If conditions persist, and after the last two years that is a significant 'if', I expect a dipole dominated summer. I will decide Friday whether to put in a substantial downward revision of my SIPN prediction as this new expectation demands it.

Note that in the June Summary SIPN stated:
http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2015/june
Quote
Given current central basin sea ice conditions and the lack of a projected atmospheric activity in the central basin (such as a high sea level pressure dipole pattern seen in previous years that is conducive to sea ice loss), there is no a priori information that would support record sea ice loss for summer 2015.

They went on to implicitly rubbish Wadham's (frankly bonkers) 1M km^2 prediction, the appearance of an Arctic Dipole combined with current conditions supports the idea we could near 2012 with perfect conditions, it does not support Wadhams.

The situation is more finely balanced than I have seen in recent years, a low near 2012 is feasible, around 2007 or 2011 is rather more believable. In my most recent blog post I include some anomaly plots at the end of the post. I didn't write this last night, but having slept on it - look at how we're tracking 2012.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/hrpt-satellite-7-july-2015.html

If I were to draw a probability density function for September 2015 NSIDC Extent what would it look like? Here's years and Sept Extent for the lowest 10 years. My heuristic assesment as of this moment is (in stars). I have added 4.00 although there's no year for that

2012   3.62 *
no year   4.00 **
2007   4.29 ***
2011   4.61 ***
2008   4.72 **
2010   4.92 **
Conditions IMO rule out all the following years.
2014   5.28
2013   5.35
2009   5.38
2005   5.56
2006   5.91

I'm going to do some calculations to see how that is affected, as I have just realised my main spreadsheet hasn't been updated since 1 July!

werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1947 on: July 08, 2015, 10:00:06 PM »
I have commented on the different character melt shows this year against ’12, ’13 and ’14. Today this is obvious, as much of the sea ice in the CAB is visible. I can’t remember having seen this extended blueish hue all over.
Instead of an extended rhomboid pattern of leads and floes, a plate-like appearance has evolved (see FI r03c04 N of Frantsa Yosefa), carrying that blue hue and lots, lots of melt ponds.

This ‘stage’ isn’t in itself new, as it formed over parts of the CAB-Beaufort and the CAB-ESS regions in other years, mostly during August. I suggest it indicates massive in-situ thinning. Combined with the disintegration on the Pacific side, I see reason enough to suppose this year might produce a result that won’t be pleasing. That would defy earlier insights that an El Nino year produces cloud protection.
As I’ve mused before, predictions on historic experience might not be very helpful anymore in this new, forced climate. El Nino is accompanied by extreme Warm Water Volume in the NE Pacific. That’s one aspect of big differences. I haven’t yet seen official scientific reports on Pacific water influx this year. But that it is happening seems obvious.
When it teams up for an extended period with a strong ridge over Greenland and easy access for atmospheric warmth, even a month might be enough for a jawdropping ride.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1948 on: July 08, 2015, 10:13:52 PM »
Calculating the drops from 7 July to NSIDC Extent September average for 2007 to 2014 and applying to 7 July extent for 2015 gives the following scenario figures for this September's average extent:

S2007   4.95
S2008   4.67
S2009   5.44
S2010   5.64
S2011   5.36
S2012   4.54
S2013   5.82
S2014   5.84

However, these are held up as NH extent is falling at below average levels due to areas outside the Arctic Ocean Basin (Central, Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev). I expect a stronger decline than those scenario figures indicate.

I expect 4 to 5M km^2 for this September, but as this is a heuristic assesment I am not entering the SIPN for July with a revised prediction.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1949 on: July 08, 2015, 10:18:03 PM »
I didn't watch the 2012 melt season.  2012 got me interested in sea ice, though, because of its very strange anomalously hot weather throughout the US that year.  For those who don't remember, the weather in the united states was strangely warm beginning in the fall of 2011, iirc.  by march of 2012, heat records were smashed throughout the northern hemisphere, with lows breaking previous record highs in some places.  feb '11 to march '12 was the hottest 12 month period in the US. each following month was hotter than the year before, breaking that record for several months in a row.  that year the drought in the midwest decimated the corn crop.  i did not realize the 2012 dipole was pumping heat from north america.  do not expect another dipole year to have exactly the same affect.   2012 was unusual for a lot of reasons. 

this is from march 2012
http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2012-03/2012-heat-wave-almost-science-fiction-mind-boggling

july 2012
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/07/08/12624445-us-heat-wave-eases-but-death-toll-rises?lite

hottest year in the US
http://voices.nationalgeographic.com/2013/01/10/heat-wave-2012-labeled-hottest-year-on-record/

2012 drought
http://www.weather.com/news/news/drought-disaster-new-data-20120715