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johnm33

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2050 on: July 11, 2015, 07:05:51 PM »
I'm really beginning to think that this year will show just how bad the pre-conditioning of feb/march 'crackopalypse' events can be on the ice........ thank the gods we have low export!!!!!


Thing is, I don't think (on the Atlantic side) export has been in reality all that low. Quite the contrary.The area and apparent concentration haven't changed very much - but  (especially in the first half of June) by following the movement of individual floes you can see that ice was drifting rapidly out of the Fram, meeting anomalously high temperature water, and disappearing without any fanfare whatsoever. I've been meaning to put together a graphic illustrating this for weeks, but have never managed to find the time.

This is one of the things that makes me wonder if the models are operating outside of their comfort zone. It's quite obvious that the ice is more fragmented and mobile that usual - In contrast with previous years, a very high proportion of it is made up of floes that are two small to see on EOSDIS. What if as  ice is exported the remainder it is just spreading out to cover the surface, rather than leaving wide tracts of open water? - If this was happening I don't think it would show up on Worldview other maybe than as late melt-ponding or persistently low albedo (both of which we saw)

Last week we saw another indication that the CAB ice is maybe less solid than it looks; the cyclone over Chuchki started pushing ice into an area of the CAB which ostensibly has 100% concentration, with so little resistance that it was spreading out as it did so leaving areas of open water reaching all the way in to the CAB. 

(to answer pearscot's question from a couple of days back) - the above is one of the things which is leaving me thinking that this may still be the year it gets real.
I'd just add that the flow of the less saline waters through CAA, which is from the ongoing melt in Beaufort suggests not all the export is ice. It leads me to think Baffin/Labrador are going to freeze over early and hard, and that the north Atlantic will have extreme cold anomolies come winter. This export of surface waters is only going to accelerate as Nares clears.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2051 on: July 11, 2015, 07:41:04 PM »
Quote
At the face of it, I don't see how 2015 is in better shape than 2012.

Could we get someone with data skills to put numbers to the 'big bowl'?  Extent, area, concentration, and thickness.

Based on years of experience I've learned not to trust my lying eyes and my eyes are telling me that 2015 might have less ice than 2012....

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2052 on: July 11, 2015, 09:04:52 PM »
Quote
At the face of it, I don't see how 2015 is in better shape than 2012.

Could we get someone with data skills to put numbers to the 'big bowl'?  Extent, area, concentration, and thickness.

Check the last two blog posts on the ASIB.

Edit: Not that I would call myself someone with data skills, but there's a lot of info and comparison in there. Tomorrow I'm posting more comparisons for June.

The big question now is: How low can a melting season go without compaction? Last year didn't go low. This year there's (much) more heat.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 11:03:41 PM by Neven »
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stackmaster

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2053 on: July 11, 2015, 10:21:56 PM »
Modis images showing breakup of not only the Nares, but several nearby channels in the Archipelago rapidly disintegrating like the shore fast ice around Severnaya Zemlya/Bolshevik island and October Revolution island has within the last week of so.
I think we'll be seeing lots more ice drifting out toward the Davis Straight before long.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2054 on: July 11, 2015, 11:05:45 PM »
Indeed, stackmaster. And ice breaking up as well in M'Clure Strait:



With all this heat and insolation, the Northwest Passage just has to clear this year, right?
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2055 on: July 11, 2015, 11:08:38 PM »
Quote
At the face of it, I don't see how 2015 is in better shape than 2012.

Could we get someone with data skills to put numbers to the 'big bowl'?  Extent, area, concentration, and thickness.

Check the last two blog posts on the ASIB.

While doing the work for my latest blog post, although I didn't cover whole NH sea ice exent. Total sea ice extent is being held up by regions like Hudson, which started off with strong melt, but has since seen below average loss. Also Greenland area and extent are not declining as much as usual for recent years, as that is a region of net export this indicates strong export due to the Greenland High.

Meanwhile within the Arctic Ocean Basin Beaufort is failing to decline much, probably due to MYI. But Chukchi is suffering what I describe as a 'rout'.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/the-chukchi-rout.html

Whilst the MYI may keep extent up in Beaufort, with low concentration scattered floes into September, events in Chukchi open up the ESS, and compactness there is dropping. Laptev is already halfway to being ice free. Kara and Barents will probably be open water by August (Kara might linger till mid August).

That just leaves the Central Arctic. Central Arctic area is falling, with extent not, resulting in a drop in compactness, but not an exceptional one. Chukchi may open up the Central Arctic to losses, but the dispersed MYI shown in the drift age model may oppose that, as in Beaufort. Note that area for the CAA is now at record low levels.

Overall the pattern is as follows: Total extent remains high, but this is an illusion created by regions that will definitely melt out by September. The key region is what I call the peripheral region, Beaufort round to Laptev, this is in very poor shape and there is a high likelihood of much open water by September, apart from Beaufort. The peak winter extent of the Central Arctic is about 4.46M km^2. If little extent were lost in that region then we'd be looking at a minimum somewhere around 2007 or 2011. In 2012 a massive loss of extent happened in the Central Arctic, with minimum September monthly extent of 3.62M km^2. The case for such a loss in the Central Arctic is far from made in my opinion.

Wadham's prediction of 1M km^2 is best put in context by the fact that even though we have some record low area/extent/compactness, none of those figures are so much wildly lower than other recent years that they suggest something as extreme as a 1M km^2 September extent.

If the drift age model is to be believed then 2012 will not be reached again, there was a much greater export of MYI over this winter than in 2012. See week 27 to compare.
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2012_27.gif
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2015_27.gif

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2056 on: July 12, 2015, 12:34:48 AM »
Quote
At the face of it, I don't see how 2015 is in better shape than 2012.

Could we get someone with data skills to put numbers to the 'big bowl'?  Extent, area, concentration, and thickness.

Check the last two blog posts on the ASIB.

Edit: Not that I would call myself someone with data skills, but there's a lot of info and comparison in there. Tomorrow I'm posting more comparisons for June.

The big question now is: How low can a melting season go without compaction? Last year didn't go low. This year there's (much) more heat.

It can go as long as the high-pressure isn't in the right place for compaction. In July 2011 we had a period with the big dome of high pressure right in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. This time around it is close to the CAA, and we have essentially a weak dipole.

Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2057 on: July 12, 2015, 12:39:52 AM »
If the drift age model is to be believed then 2012 will not be reached again, there was a much greater export of MYI over this winter than in 2012. See week 27 to compare.
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2012_27.gif
ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2015_27.gif

That really looks like a heavy burden to overcome, worst since 2007 I would say. At least the HP sitting north or Greenland is putting the ice into motion with its persistent winds blowing away from CAA.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 12:45:21 AM by Rubikscube »

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2058 on: July 12, 2015, 01:47:02 AM »
Chris, I am wondering if the Siberian Coastal Current has failed to form this year as was the case in 1995 as documented by the  Weingartner et al 1999 paper.


Thomas J. Weingartner

Seth Danielson

Yasunori Sasaki

Vladimir Pavlov

Mikhail Kulakov
Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska, United States
Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres (Impact Factor: 3.44). 12/1999; 1042(C12):29697-29714. DOI: 10.1029/1999JC900161
ABSTRACT We describe circulation and mixing in the Siberian Coastal Current (SCC) using fall shipboard measurements collected between 1992 and 1995 in the western Chukchi Sea. The SCC, forced by winds, Siberian river outflows, and ice melt, flows eastward from the East Siberian Sea. It is bounded offshore by a broad (~60 km) front separating cold, dilute Siberian Coastal Water from warmer, saltier Bering Sea Water. The alongshore flow is incoherent, because the current contains energetic eddies and squirts probably generated by frontal (baroclinic) instabilities. These enhance horizontal mixing and weaken the cross-shore density gradient along the SCC path. Eventually, the SCC converges with the northward flow from Bering Strait, whereupon it deflects offshore and mixes with that inflow. Deflection occurs where the alongshore pressure gradient vanishes. That location varies on synoptic and seasonal timescales, because this gradient depends on the winds, buoyancy fluxes, and the sea level difference between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. Deflection usually occurs on the Chukchi shelf, but the SCC occasionally flows southward through Bering Strait. Such events are short lived (1-10 days) and occur mainly in fall and winter under northerly winds. SCC transport is likely small (~0.1 Sv), but its dilute waters could substantially freshen the Bering Strait inflow and affect the disposition of Pacific waters in the Arctic Ocean. Arctic river outflows should preferentially form surface-advected fronts rather than bottom-advected fronts because vertical-mixing energy is low on arctic shelves. Surface-advected fronts are more susceptible to upwelling winds (and for the SCC, the pressure gradient between the Pacific and Arctic Oceans) than bottom-advected fronts. The SCC never developed in fall 1995 because of anomalously steady upwelling winds. The western Chukchi shelf could have formed upper halocline source water in the winter of 1995-1996. "
 
The Bering Strait SST contours shows 7 degrees C water where the SCC should be flowing Southeast.
Looks more like Bering Sea water to me.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif





Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2059 on: July 12, 2015, 01:52:08 AM »
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2060 on: July 12, 2015, 02:33:12 AM »
Thinking ahead to 2016... If this melt season does scrape by and manage to go into winter with a diffuse, thin ice cover, would this tend to cause more, less, or no change to the amount (thickness) of ice regrowth?

For instance, compared to open water, could thin, spread out ice during early winter cause faster ice nucleation, stabilize newly forming ice, or dampen wave action, and if so could this lead to thinner ice in 2016?
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2061 on: July 12, 2015, 04:08:39 AM »
University of Bremen's daily update of their AMSR2 ice concentration map is in:

  • East Siberian Sea (ESS) continues to get smoked
  • Laptev also, as hole continues to gape open (HT: seaicesailor)
  • multi-year ice in Beaufort Sea is still resisting


(click on .gif to animate)

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2062 on: July 12, 2015, 08:20:26 AM »
Bruce,

Thanks for that ref, I hadn't seen it before.

2007 to 2012 were dominated by a dipole driven average wind that was westward from Bering to the Atlantic. They were years of large summer volume loss in PIOMAS, 2007 to 2012 average 18.6k km^3. This compares to the 1979 to 2006 average summer loss of 16.42k km^3. Notably 1995 was 17.387k - a high loss year.

As Nightvid states, the dipole so far looks weak. However it is there in the July average so far.



This was not the case for June, which was low pressure dominated over the Arctic Ocean.

Rubikscube,

I agree, I don't expect a re-run of 2012, but 2007 or  lower is a reasonable expectation in my opinion.

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2063 on: July 12, 2015, 08:41:10 AM »
Thinking ahead to 2016... If this melt season does scrape by and manage to go into winter with a diffuse, thin ice cover, would this tend to cause more, less, or no change to the amount (thickness) of ice regrowth?

For instance, compared to open water, could thin, spread out ice during early winter cause faster ice nucleation, stabilize newly forming ice, or dampen wave action, and if so could this lead to thinner ice in 2016?

Yes, if by September the remaining pack is much thinner, and there is more open water then there will be more ice growth as compared to years like 2013 and 2014.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2064 on: July 12, 2015, 10:42:49 AM »



Does this mean there may be another injection of Pacific air mass into the Arctic in five days, and a strengthening of the dipole on the next

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2065 on: July 12, 2015, 11:18:56 AM »
Also Greenland area and extent are not declining as much as usual for recent years, as that is a region of net export this indicates strong export due to the Greenland High.

My impression is that export hasn't been all that big this melting season, but I base that simply on a lack of pressure gradient and my eyeballing the ClimateReanalyzer ice drift maps. It's too bad there aren't any real-time observations for export on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2066 on: July 12, 2015, 11:24:09 AM »
Everyone, there's still a couple of hours left to vote or change your vote on the NSIDC 2015 Arctic SIE September minimum: July poll. Let's make it 100 voters again!

---

ECMWF forecasts 1040 hPa over Greenland in a couple of days (other than that the forecasts haven't changed much, the high pressure persists):
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2067 on: July 12, 2015, 11:32:48 AM »
Also Greenland area and extent are not declining as much as usual for recent years, as that is a region of net export this indicates strong export due to the Greenland High.

My impression is that export hasn't been all that big this melting season, but I base that simply on a lack of pressure gradient and my eyeballing the ClimateReanalyzer ice drift maps. It's too bad there aren't any real-time observations for export on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

Export was appreciably higher than 2013 & 2014 from Winter until mid June cyclonic weather stopped it, just when compactness started to decrease. It may pick up a bit now.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2068 on: July 12, 2015, 11:52:51 AM »
It's too bad there aren't any real-time observations for export on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

There is however a bit of anecdotal evidence. See IMB buoy 2015E:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015E

and ITP59/O-Buoy 9:

https://batchgeo.com/map/itp-59

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2069 on: July 12, 2015, 11:52:54 AM »
The pattern evolving into a truly extreme ice melt regime.

The CAB is getting wrecked.
The CAA is done.
The Beaufort is toast.
The Chuchki and ESS and Eastern Laptev are all in the path of it.


By June 20th the ice will be ready to get finished off or the weather might spare a big big melt year








 The pressure anomalies will blow up over the CAB and CAA the next ten days.



Both the 00z euro and gfs ensemble means are FUCKING ruthless.

WOW!!!!

2014 has already bit the dust.

Any objective person can see this animation and see there not even close.

2015 is gonna be down just above 2010 volume wise.


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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2070 on: July 12, 2015, 12:00:51 PM »
Also Greenland area and extent are not declining as much as usual for recent years, as that is a region of net export this indicates strong export due to the Greenland High.

My impression is that export hasn't been all that big this melting season, but I base that simply on a lack of pressure gradient and my eyeballing the ClimateReanalyzer ice drift maps. It's too bad there aren't any real-time observations for export on the Atlantic side of the Arctic.

You may be right there, perhaps 'about average' would be better. Looking at HYCOM Arctic export isn't fast - but that is usual for summer. However area and extent in Greenland haven't declined very fast and I think this is probably due to export keeping up with melt.

Edit, another look at the HYCOM animated gif and I think that export has picked up as the Greenland high has strengthened.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2071 on: July 12, 2015, 12:16:01 PM »
Average wind vector anomaly, April to June, since 2007.



2012 very much the stand out year

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2072 on: July 12, 2015, 01:01:04 PM »
2012 very much the stand out year

Corroborated by Wipneus' graph of Fram volume export on arctischepinguin.
     From memory I expected to see a higher outward wind anomaly for 2007, but according to PIOMAS, Fram export was below average during this interval.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2073 on: July 12, 2015, 02:29:07 PM »
Average wind vector anomaly, April to June, since 2007.



2012 very much the stand out year

Two comments:
- 2015 indeed had more intense Fram drift than the previous two years
- 2007 maintained very significant export until September (if I remember well), and into the next Winter. This is not accounted for in these plots

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2074 on: July 12, 2015, 04:04:14 PM »

The euro gfs and NAEFS ensembles show no end to this







Persistence is the key to epic melt.


This year is heading info rarified air with a July beating like this

All of the 2013/14 progress is looking more and more likely to be wiped out.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2075 on: July 12, 2015, 05:30:45 PM »
Corroborated by Wipneus' graph of Fram volume export on arctischepinguin.
     From memory I expected to see a higher outward wind anomaly for 2007, but according to PIOMAS, Fram export was below average during this interval.


Two comments:
- 2015 indeed had more intense Fram drift than the previous two years
- 2007 maintained very significant export until September (if I remember well), and into the next Winter. This is not accounted for in these plots

Rather than just Fram southward, I think the cross polar wind field is an important factor too, driving the ice toward Fram, something that both 2012 and 2007 experienced a lot of. It also helps with compaction on the Pacific side and with pulling warmer waters in through the Bering Strait.

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2076 on: July 13, 2015, 04:14:13 AM »
University of Bremen have posted their daily update to their AMSR2 ice concentration map...

Click on the .gif to animate a comparison to 1 week ago. The change actually looks a lot like compaction from the Siberian side, with the ice eaten away near the compacting edge...


Vergent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2077 on: July 13, 2015, 06:41:38 AM »


can you actually listen? Maybe you should.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2078 on: July 13, 2015, 10:13:48 AM »
Verg,

I've taken the liberty of embedding that video:



Here are some associated "background documents":

http://www.feem.it/getpage.aspx?id=7516&sez=Events&padre=81&sub=7396

You may notice some graphs in there that are very familiar to Arctic Sea Ice Blog/Forum regulars.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 01:27:38 PM by Jim Hunt »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2079 on: July 13, 2015, 01:31:51 PM »
...
Wadham's prediction of 1M km^2 is best put in context by the fact that even though we have some record low area/extent/compactness, none of those figures are so much wildly lower than other recent years that they suggest something as extreme as a 1M km^2 September extent.
...
Wadhams happen to be a part of AMEG. Despite all the questionable suggestions and arguments the group spits out, they do have a point. CH4 is ~120 times more efficient GHG shortly upon release than CO2 (during ~6 months or so after release of any given portion of it). And last few years, we do have so-called (by russian scientists in the field) methane-related "cold eruptions" of large masses of soil from permafrost regions. Last illustration of this story gives an idea what these eruptions are.

I've seen close footage and heard russian scientists explaining details about this; there is no doubt this is pressure-caused soil eruptions, and there is no doubt the pressure is created by methane to a large degree, since lakes forming in such "craters" after a few weeks have their waters oversaturated with methane - those few ones which were analyzed for that.

I would suggest that Wadhams' predictions are in large part based on methane emissions in the Arctic - not only from land permafrost, but also from shelf methane clathrate deposits, which hold thousands gigatons of methane in total, of which few dozens (~50) gigatons in ESAS alone may be released "at any time", as discovered by Shakhova et al famous paper. I am not saying it's happening now - i have no reliable data myself to state that, - but i say it's likely prof. Wadhams thinks it is happening now on a scale sufficient to produce large extra melt effect during the melt season.

The only unconfirmed data about last 2...3 years of actual net methane annual emission in Arctic which i happened to see not so long ago - suggests that said emission was nearly doubled in 2013 and once again nearly doubled in 2014. Sadly, i am not at freedom to provide the source here. It is my understanding that if we'll get three or four more years like that - each year nearly doubling Arctic's annual methane release, - then Arctic will by then be emitting over 1Gt of methane into the athmosphere every year, which would certainly be a major factor to a huge extra summer melt. While i am not sure whether my data is true (and i am not sure what's more likely - whether it under- or over-estimates!), i believe it's enough reason to suspect that prof. Wadhams certainly took extra warming from extra methane into account when he made his prediction about 1M km^2.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 01:44:02 PM by F.Tnioli »

Richard Rathbone

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2080 on: July 13, 2015, 01:42:25 PM »
Wadhams seems pretty out of date. That would have been a decent presentation 2 years ago, but he's ignoring pretty much all the data since 2012 and in some cases a 2012 end date looks blatantly cherry picked.



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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2081 on: July 13, 2015, 01:49:38 PM »
...
Wadham's prediction of 1M km^2 is best put in context by the fact that even though we have some record low area/extent/compactness, none of those figures are so much wildly lower than other recent years that they suggest something as extreme as a 1M km^2 September extent.
...
Wadhams happen to be a part of AMEG. Despite all the questionable suggestions and arguments the group spits out, they do have a point. CH4 is ~120 times more efficient GHG shortly upon release than CO2 (during ~6 months or so after release of any given portion of it). And last few years, we do have so-called (by russian scientists in the field) methane-related "cold eruptions" of large masses of soil from permafrost regions. Last illustration of this story gives an idea what these eruptions are.

I've seen close footage and heard russian scientists explaining details about this; there is no doubt this is pressure-caused soil eruptions, and there is no doubt the pressure is created by methane to a large degree, since lakes forming in such "craters" after a few weeks have their waters oversaturated with methane - those few ones which were analyzed for that.

I would suggest that Wadhams' predictions are in large part based on methane emissions in the Arctic - not only from land permafrost, but also from shelf methane clathrate deposits, which hold thousands gigatons of methane in total, of which few dozens (~50) gigatons in ESAS alone may be released "at any time", as discovered by Shakhova et al famous paper. I am not saying it's happening now - i have no reliable data myself to state that, - but i say it's likely prof. Wadhams thinks it is happening now on a scale sufficient to produce large extra melt effect during the melt season.

The only unconfirmed data about last 2...3 years of actual net methane annual emission in Arctic which i happened to see not so long ago - suggests that said emission was nearly doubled in 2013 and once again nearly doubled in 2014. Sadly, i am not at freedom to provide the source here. It is my understanding that if we'll get three or four more years like that - doubling Arctic's annual methane release each year, - then Arctic will by then be emitting over 1Gt of methane into the athmosphere every year, which would certainly be a major factor to a huge extra summer melt. While i am not sure whether my data is true (and i am not sure what's more likely - whether it under- or over-estimates!), i believe it's enough reason to suspect that prof. Wadhams certainly took extra warming from extra methane into account when he made his prediction about 1M km^2.

The problem with that is, if the methane forcing were really large enough for that to be reasonable, it would surely be obvious when looking at other indicators such as Arctic temperatures, longwave radiation, or springtime ice thickness.

The snow retreat in May and June should also bear it out. What we actually saw is that the land-based snow for May and June was within the typical range of the last few years, not extraordinary. However the snow cover on Arctic sea ice retreated very rapidly in June.

Nonetheless, while that snow retreat does justify the conclusion of the 2012 records being beaten this year, it does not point to a nearly-ice-free Arctic this year if one simply does the linear regression. Occam's Razor says that you don't multiply entities beyond necessity - so if one wants to use a non-linear regression rather than a linear one, it needs to be independently justified.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2082 on: July 13, 2015, 02:01:07 PM »
I never said much extra methane forcing "was" earlier this year. It's possibly in store for next few months, i think. Ask Wadhams about it if you can, but my guess is that local (Arctic-emitted, Arctic-affecting) methane problem is the least during spring and early summer, grows during summer and peaks some time in autumn.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 02:11:33 PM by F.Tnioli »

lanevn

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2083 on: July 13, 2015, 03:25:24 PM »
The only unconfirmed data about last 2...3 years of actual net methane annual emission in Arctic which i happened to see not so long ago - suggests that said emission was nearly doubled in 2013 and once again nearly doubled in 2014. Sadly, i am not at freedom to provide the source here.

Something like hacking NASA's satellites?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2084 on: July 13, 2015, 03:34:37 PM »
The only unconfirmed data about last 2...3 years of actual net methane annual emission in Arctic which i happened to see not so long ago - suggests that said emission was nearly doubled in 2013 and once again nearly doubled in 2014. Sadly, i am not at freedom to provide the source here.

Something like hacking NASA's satellites?
No. It's about forgetting where exactly i was reading the data. I simply do not remember. However, it was my intention to forget, too. Some things, better left be without saying them in public any loud, at this time. This is understood well not only by me, but also by others; for example, by employees of NASA's CARVE project.
« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 03:45:44 PM by F.Tnioli »

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2085 on: July 13, 2015, 04:06:57 PM »
I never said much extra methane forcing "was" earlier this year. It's possibly in store for next few months, i think. Ask Wadhams about it if you can, but my guess is that local (Arctic-emitted, Arctic-affecting) methane problem is the least during spring and early summer, grows during summer and peaks some time in autumn.

Then it will not have much impact on the Arctic ice extent, because the crucial early season is still normal. A methane episode beginning in August, September, or (obviously) October, I would argue, is simply too late in the season to have much effect.

It is really May and June, it seems, that make or break a melt season.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2086 on: July 13, 2015, 04:28:40 PM »
May and June it is normally, yes.

August and September, the Sun is low, however albedo is also low, and temperatures high (in compare to May/June). Throw in local high methane concentrations - which work, mind you, both day and night in terms of trapping IR coming off the surface, - and you get greenhouse effect, i.e. higher temperatures than otherwise normal for the season, i imagine. If the ice is in worse-than-usual shape, it might well be the last nail to it at such location(s).

But we'll see whether Wadhams is much wrong about this year, or not, in mere two months, i believe. I am not trying to convince you. Merely thinking aloud, i guess. Considering possibilities. Reasons not to be as cathegorically sure in things as some others seem to be.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2087 on: July 13, 2015, 04:52:10 PM »
Substantial drift of ESS, northward, may persist for 6 days. Combined with hot weather . . .

« Last Edit: July 13, 2015, 05:06:39 PM by seaicesailor »

ghoti

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2088 on: July 13, 2015, 08:33:23 PM »

stackmaster

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2089 on: July 14, 2015, 12:26:50 AM »
Fracturing visible on MODIS today, not good at this but looks like it continues about 100 miles west from the Parry Channel. 

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2090 on: July 14, 2015, 10:44:48 AM »
Great forum.
Yes, it is all breaking up very soon.
No question about it.
...
In fact, there is a question about it. Not about "breaking up" - this is certain indeed, - but one about how soon is "very soon".

Recently, i've seen ( youtube.com/watch?v=ceGJTCF5tyY ) David Keith talking the tough talk related to Arctic melt. Be adviced, David is definitely a smart fella, and as nearly all smart fellas do, he doesn't say everything he knows, and sometimes he lies, with or sometimes without respectable reason to do so. But this here talk, as far as i can tell, he doesn't lie any much; i feel he's convinced in what he's saying, at least most of the time. It takes some careful consideration to properly understand his points for people not much familiar with the subject, though. And of course, he doesn't tell everything he knows.

Now to my point. Some time near 10 minutes mark, David mentions that if the solar management would be tried, then he'd start with "very small" amount of it at first. Sounds alright? Well, not after he clarifies right next that this "very small" amount would in fact produce an effect less than a large volcano. So you see, to him, "very small" is something slightly less weaker than Pinatubo, which spat out enough sulphur to drop global average temperature for ~0,5C for ~3 years after its eruption.

Now if that's "very small" to mr. Keith, what you think is "average" or "large" solar management effect, eh? And who can guarantee that powers that be wouldn't in fact ask prof. Keith to do his thing, if Arctic finally goes blue - or shortly before it does?

In fact, how do we know some "very small" applications of solar management were not already made? Patents for sulphur-based and aluminium-based Welsbach seeding exist since early 1990s, Hughes company have some, for example - not some silly inventor, i mean; Hughes is serious bunch. They do high-tech which tends to work, and work well. And there are some hints to possible applications in Arctic late July and August 2013 and 2014 which i know about. Nothing certain, though.

Further, David Keith is not alone, of course. One of illustrations to this good article mentions MIT conference on the subject in 2013 (and it's August at that; but no, that's not one of hints i meant above - those were some things in ASI data). The fact MIT has such conferences without any much fanfare - is quite good indication that most capable and serious scientific institutions in the world do consider the option seriously.

Now ask yourself: given well known negative public opinion towards the method, plus all the opposing political interests which prof. Keith mentions so often (including during the talk above), - will we have (or, _did_ we have) any mass media messages (or even, humble public scientific messages) about some cases of "very small" applications of solar radiation management, if and when such applications will (and/or, already were) done? To me, the answer is obvious: nope, it's best not to let public know about it for those who would be doing it.

If all the above sounds quite reasonable to you, then you probably will come to same conclusion i came to: while not very likely, it still might be that "very soon" will not be "in a very few years from now", something like Vieslaw Maslovski modelled (2016 +-3 years for 1st ice-free Arctic ocean event), - but quite a bit later, perhaps middle 2020s or even some time in 2030s.

However, the more significant solar management applications would be, the easier it'll be to see the melt mode change in the data. Hints to it which not many see will increasingly become obvious and large anomalies during any given melt season, possibly including this one if the thing is indeed happening since 2013 or about to start this year. Can't hide it from public which has access to satellite imagery, if the application gets any larger than "extremely very small" in David's terms. So keep your eyes open for strange things like long and hardly explainaible halts of melting during this and next few melt seasons. If you'll see them and get puzzled how and why they happen - well, the probable answer is just above.


P.S. Is it good or bad? David says, it might be good as a stopgap measure. I disagree with this. Stopgap measure only makes sense if there will in fact be a better permanent solution. But in this case, there won't be, for rather long time. I see core drivers of ongoing increase of GHG rise, and those are too stay as long as human nature would remain largely the same. I.e. at least for few human generations, but most likely - for centuries onwards. Which is why solar management can't be effective as "stopgap". It will only be effective as a "short-term continuation of business as usual, means more profit short-term to powers that be". I am not sure whether David knows this (but lies about it), or honestly believes in his opinion. But i am sure that some other convinced solar management "adepts" are well aware. For example, few years ago, there was a public copy of White House talk between few "conservative" scientists and officials, discussing solar management, in which Lowell Wood said that using much of aluminium-based solar management, which he then said is ~4 times more effective than sulpur-based, - is "not a moral dilemma", but "simply a ride on our grandkids' necks". No wonder this recording is nowhere public to be found today, eh.

P.P.S. And if you think "they" "must" tell the world before they would start even "very small" applications of solar management, - well, no. I've been recently informed by my country's non-internet source that various weather modification programs are now running in at least 34 different countries around the world. For example, China _already_ spent over 1 billion USD to modify weather, mainly to cause extra rain in some of its provinces (like this: youtube.com/watch?v=bmSuBiOQhyM ). They didn't "tell" about 1+ billion USD until after they spent it and planned to spend much more to intensify artificial rains they are getting by 2020, about which Chinese givernment made official statement ~6 months ago. China and other countries manipulating weather for local needs unavoidably alter whole Earth climate, - perhaps not dramatically now (yet), but increasingly as time go by and such programs intensify. I never heard about anything like "UN weather modification approval group" - my current assumption is, while specialists are well aware that doing "better weather" for thier own country will certainly produce some negative impacts for other countries, - they couldn't care less, basically. They just go on with their projects, earning their paychecks and completing tasks they are assigned to complete. So why exactly Arctic has to be any different? Just the same, most involved and interested parties will "modify", or already are modifying, "weather" in Arctic at certain most important (for them) points, and since there are so few people in Arctic (especially central basin), it would only be easier to keep it low profile, eh. While some of us here would wonder again and again: "what gives? things should melt like crazy, but they don't". ;)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2015, 11:11:00 AM by F.Tnioli »

oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2091 on: July 14, 2015, 11:02:36 AM »
F. Tnioli, I believe this should be posted in a separate thread.

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2092 on: July 14, 2015, 11:15:30 AM »
F. Tnioli, I believe this should be posted in a separate thread.
I don't.

I believe what i spoke about may have direct and possibly large effect on this melt season, and i see no rational reason to believe that described by David Keith solar management could not be used this melt season. As long as people are allowed here to voice their opinions about how this melt season will progress and end, - and so far, they are always allowed, - i see no problem in voicing a specific possibility for a major factor which could affect this melt season.

Now would you kindly explain why your belief is different than mine?

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2093 on: July 14, 2015, 11:21:38 AM »
F. Tnioli, I believe this should be posted in a separate thread.
I don't.

I do

Quote
I believe what i spoke about may have direct and possibly large effect on this melt season, and i see no rational reason to believe that described by David Keith solar management could not be used this melt season. As long as people are allowed here to voice their opinions about how this melt season will progress and end, - and so far, they are always allowed, - i see no problem in voicing a specific possibility for a major factor which could affect this melt season.

Are there any plans for 'solar management' this melting season? There are none, and so this discussion is more suited to one of the geoengineering threads.  Otherwise I may as well close down every thread on this forum and say: it's related to this melting season, discuss it in the 2015 melting season thread.

The entire point of this forum to steer off-topic discussions away from the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. And this thread here is about what is happening in the Arctic NOW, and what the forecast for next week are. That means graphs, maps and analysis, not long stories about how geoengineering could affect this melting season if it were applied.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2094 on: July 14, 2015, 11:22:52 AM »
Is it my impression or are the models slowly moving away from the high pressure-anomalous heat combination? High pressure remains over Greenland, but is much less expansive, starting 4-5 days from now.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2095 on: July 14, 2015, 11:48:07 AM »
...
Are there any plans for 'solar management' this melting season? There are none ...
Well how do you know? Significant part of that large post i made - is adressing this, demonstrating with simple logic that if there are such plans - we (public at large) wouldn't know about them. Graphs in one recent Keith's paper are starting 2020 for SRM, but that's global scale. According to Keith's own words, such global scale would be _after_ "very small" deployments to test it out. It's just 5 years to 2020 now. Given this, are you still so much sure about those plans which "there are none"?

Edit: and Neven, your arguments would convince me if the subject would be something minor. SRM is not something minor, IMHO. Obviously we can't go in length about every last tiny detail in here, it'd be counter-productive even when such tiny details are very about melting season and nothing else - like discussing every square meter of ASI. SRM if the opposite: yes, it's a "may be" territory and we know it's highly unlikely to be any certainty about SRM all the way well past its large-scale deployment, however, the sheer importance and scale of possible SRM solutions make the subject worth some attention even here, and in particular in relation to melting seasons. Albedo changes produced by different melt mode for the next season - are OK to discuss, but amount of solar radiation which we know may be reduced artificially and we know methods are being designed for it in all details - is not OK to discuss? I'll remain where i am. Respected moderators are free to fix me, if i am out of my place... I hope i am not.

P.S. I gave few interesting links between 'em lines, hopefully. Something's good outta those texts, at least. :)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2015, 11:59:09 AM by F.Tnioli »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2096 on: July 14, 2015, 11:52:25 AM »
I don't know, ask me in the geoengineering thread.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2097 on: July 14, 2015, 12:17:38 PM »
I don't know, ask me in the geoengineering thread.
Which one? How about this one? If it'll do, then i'll ask there. It's quite good topic, i just found it and so far i like what i read there.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2098 on: July 14, 2015, 12:58:36 PM »
Is it my impression or are the models slowly moving away from the high pressure-anomalous heat combination? High pressure remains over Greenland, but is much less expansive, starting 4-5 days from now.

I dont know. But is this another massive injection of warm Pacific air into the Arctic?


plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2099 on: July 14, 2015, 01:03:10 PM »
Is it my impression or are the models slowly moving away from the high pressure-anomalous heat combination? High pressure remains over Greenland, but is much less expansive, starting 4-5 days from now.

I dont know. But is this another massive injection of warm Pacific air into the Arctic?



for an ex-typhoon pretty moderate. Not entirely sure if that will really happen, because it requires quite a good alignment between the ex-typhoon and the ESS-trough.  Bad weather for the ice anyway.