Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: The 2015 melting season  (Read 1718433 times)

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7270
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 488
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2150 on: July 16, 2015, 01:35:53 PM »
Those dmi thickness graphics are trash.

The 00z models are EPIC.

The Hudson and Baffin still holding things up.
Laptev will melt out completely.

The bottom is gonna drop out soon.
I don't know about the bottom dropping out (see my June analysis on the ASIB), but I agree that this train is going to keep on running. High pressure continues to dominate the American side of the Arctic, with a slight shift from Greenland to the Beaufort/CAB in two days. All this time, the CAA remains at the heart of it. That thick MYI ice is getting hit so hard...

It looks like both passages are going to be open this year, and the only question is what is going to happen to the MYI distribution and volume (important for the long-term), and whether there is still enough time for the late melting momentum to make an impact on the SIE and SIA graphs.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 690
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2151 on: July 16, 2015, 01:49:49 PM »
Meanwhile, near the North Pole, 24/7 heat goes on:



And just ~6 hours after the above picture, nearest to the camera stake dropped down, and new mini-pond appeared right next to the camera:



This mini-pond looks to be surface melt to me. 6 hours prior, that bit was looking just like any other piece of ice, but then BAM, and it's water surface. Drains into larger pond nearby, i guess. And i guess, that whole icescape visible is now wet inside its upper layer, with lots of holes connecting ponds to the ocean. Every day of this translates to much extra September open-water space, me thinks.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 02:02:51 PM by F.Tnioli »

Glenn Tamblyn

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 128
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2152 on: July 16, 2015, 01:53:42 PM »
It all hinges on the Beaufort. If that melts out a new record is at least possible... and the MYI gets wasted!

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2153 on: July 16, 2015, 01:56:48 PM »
Meanwhile, near the North Pole, 24/7 heat goes on:



And just ~6 hours after the above picture, nearest to the camera stake dropped down, and new mini-pong appeared:




This mini-pond looks to be surface melt to me. 6 hours prior, that bit was looking just like any other piece of ice, but then BAM, and it's water surface. Drains into larger pond nearby, i guess. And i guess, that whole icescape visible is now wet inside its upper layer, with lots of holes connecting ponds to the ocean. Every day of this translates to much extra September open-water space, me thinks.
If you are talking about the dark patch to the left of the pond on the right, I think that is a shadow! next update will show ;)
edit: if you look at earlier images that shadow allways appears at the same time of day when its sunny
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 02:14:58 PM by Andreas T »

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2154 on: July 16, 2015, 02:04:40 PM »
It all hinges on the Beaufort. If that melts out a new record is at least possible... and the MYI gets wasted!

Yes it is resisting. Clouds and lower temps helped for days just when the heat was supposed to hit hard. Still look at Wipneus animation. MYI is thinning.

Peter Ellis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 617
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 35
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2155 on: July 16, 2015, 02:05:52 PM »
It's the shadow of the buoy, you can clearly make out the various antennae and sensor mountings.  There's a small circular-ish melt pool around it, of which we can just see the rim.

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2156 on: July 16, 2015, 02:14:28 PM »
Some of those ablation stakes have had too much to drink...  ;D

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 690
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2157 on: July 16, 2015, 02:16:15 PM »
...
If you are talking about the dark patch to the left of the pond on the right, I think that is a shadow! next update will show ;)
It is indeed. Thanks! It's visible in previous updates near 6:00. That's most stupid mistake i've done in months. Huge facepalm in order. Sorry! %)

Dropping stake and the look of the ice surface still make me think things are darn wet in the upper layer there. I've seen that sort of glaze-like thick snow / ice surface through rapid spring melts during my years in Siberia; it's typical.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 03:08:51 PM by F.Tnioli »

Shared Humanity

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4027
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 454
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2158 on: July 16, 2015, 02:42:10 PM »
Those dmi thickness graphics are trash.

The 00z models are EPIC.

The Hudson and Baffin still holding things up.
Laptev will melt out completely.

The bottom is gonna drop out soon.

I don't know about the bottom dropping out (see my June analysis on the ASIB), but I agree that this train is going to keep on running. High pressure continues to dominate the American side of the Arctic, with a slight shift from Greenland to the Beaufort/CAB in two days. All this time, the CAA remains at the heart of it. That thick MYI ice is getting hit so hard...

It looks like both passages are going to be open this year, and the only question is what is going to happen to the MYI distribution and volume (important for the long-term), and whether there is still enough time for the late melting momentum to make an impact on the SIE and SIA graphs.

As I watch this melt season, it looks as if the melt forces attacking the ice decided not to bother with area and extent but to concentrate all of their energy in a full frontal assault on the last remaining truly thick MYI in the CAA and in the area that hugs the northern edge of same. If I didn't know better I'd say they decided to wage a 2 season campaign and will go for the jugular next year.

How much damage is this assault having on this last remnant of ice, the kind of ice which use to cover large areas of the ocean? Are their ways of getting a PIOMASS trend just for this region?

At any rate, I will be watching this region closely for the remainder of this melt season and the freeze season to follow. If any persistent trends set up over this region during the winter (early heavy snowfall blanketing the region and insulating the ice from the cold, persistent warm temperature anomalies, late closing of Nares Strait allowing MYI ice transport for a long period, a great deal of Fram export etc.) next melt season might be very exciting.

Arctic death blow in 2016 anyone?
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 02:47:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

F.Tnioli

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 690
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 69
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2159 on: July 16, 2015, 02:56:29 PM »
...
Arctic death blow in 2016 anyone?
Can you count "US Navy" as "one"? Expecting ~2016 since 2006, they are.

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7270
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 488
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2160 on: July 16, 2015, 06:26:29 PM »

As I watch this melt season, it looks as if the melt forces attacking the ice decided not to bother with area and extent but to concentrate all of their energy in a full frontal assault on the last remaining truly thick MYI in the CAA and in the area that hugs the northern edge of same. If I didn't know better I'd say they decided to wage a 2 season campaign and will go for the jugular next year.

You're hitting that nail on the head pretty damn hard, SH! To me this is what this melting season is about. Are we going to see the rebound conserved, or consolidated even? Or will the Arctic go back to its position where it is poised to go record low as soon as the conditions are right?

At the same time it will be interesting to watch if the bottom does drop out, but I still don't expect 2015 to come anywhere near 2012.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Nick_Naylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 291
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2161 on: July 16, 2015, 06:36:41 PM »
We're only about 10 days from when 2013 and 2014's area declines started hitting some really big speed bumps. We'll probably need some really big changes in conditions for that to happen this year.

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1200
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2162 on: July 16, 2015, 07:08:48 PM »
The attached image shows the Arctic Oscillation has been negative since mid-June; which theoretically should be blocking warm winds from further south entering the CAA, and thus reducing some of the sea ice melting/compacting.  Maybe it is my imagination but this negative AO maybe associated with the strengthening El Nino; which if true, would mean that a possible La Nina next year may promote the advection of warm air/wind into the Arctic, resulting in a recording minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent in September 2016.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2163 on: July 16, 2015, 07:16:32 PM »
The attached image shows the Arctic Oscillation has been negative since mid-June; which theoretically should be blocking warm winds from further south entering the CAA, and thus reducing some of the sea ice melting/compacting.  Maybe it is my imagination but this negative AO maybe associated with the strengthening El Nino; which if true, would mean that a possible La Nina next year may promote the advection of warm air/wind into the Arctic, resulting in a recording minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent in September 2016.

Isn't exactly the opposite as you say what is happening this year? Negative AO is promoting some, not much, compacting

BTW those few extra-tropical storms that have been bouncing against the RRR (more to come, one next week) and blowing warm Pacific air into the Arctic, are El Nino-branded.

Edited for clarity, probably failed 8)
« Last Edit: July 16, 2015, 07:28:24 PM by seaicesailor »

OldLeatherneck

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 554
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2164 on: July 16, 2015, 07:20:35 PM »
Since we're on the topic of 2015 setting the stage for 2016, how about considering the the SSTs in the North Pacific.  The lack of significant sea ice in the Bering and Okhotz seas contributed to this years record low maximum SIE.  Will there be enough heat left in those areas this winter to further reduce ice growth in those regions.  Is it possible that we are soon to enter time when when seen the last of sea ice in the Bering and Okhotz seas forever??
"Share Your Knowledge.  It's a Way to Achieve Immortality."  ......the Dalai Lama

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1200
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2165 on: July 16, 2015, 07:39:16 PM »
The attached image shows the Arctic Oscillation has been negative since mid-June; which theoretically should be blocking warm winds from further south entering the CAA, and thus reducing some of the sea ice melting/compacting.  Maybe it is my imagination but this negative AO maybe associated with the strengthening El Nino; which if true, would mean that a possible La Nina next year may promote the advection of warm air/wind into the Arctic, resulting in a recording minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent in September 2016.

Isn't exactly the opposite as you say what is happening this year? Negative AO is promoting some, not much, compacting

BTW those few extra-tropical storms that have been bouncing against the RRR (more to come, one next week) and blowing warm Pacific air into the Arctic, are El Nino-branded.

Edited for clarity, probably failed 8)

According to the linked paper the correlation between AO & ENSO has some complexities to it, w.r.t. east vs west ice loss and negative vs positive ENSO phases:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL019858/full
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2166 on: July 16, 2015, 08:22:01 PM »
The attached image shows the Arctic Oscillation has been negative since mid-June; which theoretically should be blocking warm winds from further south entering the CAA, and thus reducing some of the sea ice melting/compacting.  Maybe it is my imagination but this negative AO maybe associated with the strengthening El Nino; which if true, would mean that a possible La Nina next year may promote the advection of warm air/wind into the Arctic, resulting in a recording minimum Arctic Sea Ice extent in September 2016.

Isn't exactly the opposite as you say what is happening this year? Negative AO is promoting some, not much, compacting

BTW those few extra-tropical storms that have been bouncing against the RRR (more to come, one next week) and blowing warm Pacific air into the Arctic, are El Nino-branded.

Edited for clarity, probably failed 8)

According to the linked paper the correlation between AO & ENSO has some complexities to it, w.r.t. east vs west ice loss and negative vs positive ENSO phases:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2004GL019858/full

Yes. Im sorry, I had a completely wrong idea of the AO. I have to read more.

Still, any thought on the third (iirc) extra-tropical storm reaching next week the proximities of Bering Sea? If I heard well, this year cyclonic activity in the Pacific has been very high due to el Niño.



LRC1962

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 431
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2167 on: July 16, 2015, 08:30:22 PM »
Since we're on the topic of 2015 setting the stage for 2016, how about considering the the SSTs in the North Pacific.  The lack of significant sea ice in the Bering and Okhotz seas contributed to this years record low maximum SIE.  Will there be enough heat left in those areas this winter to further reduce ice growth in those regions.  Is it possible that we are soon to enter time when when seen the last of sea ice in the Bering and Okhotz seas forever??
A few uneducated observations.
1)Despite a continuous build up of CO2 levels, we had a 'hiatus' in global temps, which physics says must have risen and therefore is somewhere in the global system unrecorded.
2)We have had very high anomalous reading in the North Pacific over several years now. That has not shown up in the atmosphere at the same levels therefore it still must be there somewhere if my understanding of ocean currents is right in that it takes a very long time for heat to get through the oceans. Therefore IMO it must still be in the oceans near that same area.
4) There is a lot of evidence that the NP is warming up as the NP cyclones are travelling further north with more power then normal.
Based on these factors IMO we will see less extent in those areas at max and that there is plenty of heat available to sustain it over many years. How long? Depends on how far we push global temps up.
The bigger question could be more how that will affect the rest of the ASI and the permafrost both on land and ocean.
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
       - Arthur Schopenhauer

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2168 on: July 16, 2015, 08:37:38 PM »
For the next 10 days I expect to see 6-9 century breaks! Rottish ice in Laptev, Hudson, Baffin and Chukchi Sea will be the main contributors. Northern Sea Route will likely se circumnavigable by the end of next week and remain open until the beginning of October.

One big IF is: what IF this had been 2013 and not 2015?! Would we had seen the North Pole to be open for the first time in modern history?

July is by average the warmest month in the Arctic and eyeballing DMI graph this is the time at year when the temps are peaking. From now and on the average temps in the Arctic are slowly declining. The big issue is how much the old ice will withstand. Sooner or later, the heat dome will have a more pronounced effect! Even if the ice is thick it will eventually melt quickly, especially if it's rotten.

The ice in the northern Hudson Bay, in Baffin and around Svalbard should guarantee a minimum that will hovering around a specific value for a while in September as continued melting in the fringe areas will offset the refreezing areas in extent and area numbers.

LRC1962: even if the oceans have been warm in the Northern Pacific the PDO (Pacific decadal Oscillation) have for about 15 years been mainly negative. In the beginning of 2014 this index switched to positive values. there are some scientists that believe that the negative PDO since 1999 have been responsible for the slow temperature increase but that this trend might reverse as the index now have switched to its positive phase. during the negative phase the Pacific are burying heat in the depths while the opposite should be in the positive phase. The positive phase also use to be dominated by more El Niño episodes while the opposite is for the negative phase.

Best, LMV

AbruptSLR

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17976
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1200
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2169 on: July 16, 2015, 08:59:25 PM »
Still, any thought on the third (iirc) extra-tropical storm reaching next week the proximities of Bering Sea? If I heard well, this year cyclonic activity in the Pacific has been very high due to el Niño.

Per the following linked Cyclocane site & associated image Typhoon Nangka will be tracking towards the Bering Sea in the next several days; however, the Bering Sea is already relatively ice free.

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2170 on: July 16, 2015, 09:40:17 PM »
The 14th July average (2002-2014), 2015 vs average and 2015 vs 2012 ice concentration maps attached below show, among other things, that Laptev is no longer lagging behind the average, and that in spite of the current deficit of ice in Chukchi, there still seems to be quite some ground to make up if this year is to compete with 2012, not just in Baffin and Hudson. A peculiarity which has been present for some time is the abnormally high concentration of ice just east of Franz Josef and Svalbard, the later one is unprecedented in the AMSR-E/AMSR2 record going back to 2002.

Rubikscube

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 247
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2171 on: July 16, 2015, 09:51:11 PM »
Per the following linked Cyclocane site & associated image Typhoon Nangka will be tracking towards the Bering Sea in the next several days; however, the Bering Sea is already relatively ice free.

The remains of typhoon Nangka should have some indirect impact though. It looks increasing likely that it will help to set up a very traditional looking dipole 3-5 days from now (high pressure in Beufort and Greenalnd and low pressure in Bering and Laptev), which make sure there are currently no prospects of melting conditions becoming unfavourable anytime soon.

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2172 on: July 16, 2015, 10:49:10 PM »
Per the following linked Cyclocane site & associated image Typhoon Nangka will be tracking towards the Bering Sea in the next several days; however, the Bering Sea is already relatively ice free.

The remains of typhoon Nangka should have some indirect impact though. It looks increasing likely that it will help to set up a very traditional looking dipole 3-5 days from now (high pressure in Beufort and Greenalnd and low pressure in Bering and Laptev), which make sure there are currently no prospects of melting conditions becoming unfavourable anytime soon.

Yes that is what I meant. Looking back, it was Typhoon Dolphin by end of May (and Noul a bit before), that as extra-tropical storm reached Bering sea; pairing with High at Pacific-Alaska, formed a dipole that pulled warm air into the Arctic (similar to forecast; which BTW next week will have its proper Arctic dipole too, if I understand you well). I was not meaning the direct effect on Bering Sea ice.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2173 on: July 16, 2015, 10:56:21 PM »
Sea Ice Sailor, AbruptSLR,

The negative AO is the re-emergence of the pattern that dominated 2007 to 2012 and played a strong role in low extent summers in those years.

July 2007 to 2012.


1 to 14 July 2015.


It also plays a role in Greenland melt.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.3475/abstract

Which is why Hanna was involved in this paper.
ftp://ftp.shef.ac.uk/pub/uni/academic/D-H/geog/felix/PAC_Summer_Reading/overlandetal_12_arctic.pdf

slow wing

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 792
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 145
  • Likes Given: 403
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2174 on: July 17, 2015, 04:00:15 AM »
Spectacular concentration map update today from University of Bremen: in Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS & Laptev. Looks like compaction in general in the Arctic sea, with Pacific, Atlantic & Siberian sides all appearing to go inwards...

How much of this is daily fluctuations vs how much will stick?

Click on .gif for flashbacks to yesterday's map


Here is the original map, showing full detail
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

The moths have been hard at work in Beaufort! The holes in the ice are quite impressive by now and it is difficult to believe that ice will survive the melt season.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2015, 04:14:59 AM by slow wing »

Bruce Steele

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1508
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 11
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2175 on: July 17, 2015, 06:34:09 AM »
8 degrees C  SST in the Chukchi and 16 C ( 60 F ) in Norton sound.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif


Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2176 on: July 17, 2015, 08:35:09 AM »
If one is to believe the DMI volume graph, 2015 is now somewhat ahead of 2011... Only 2012 was "worse". A comparision between June 15 and July 15 reveals that some places in the Pacific sector have lost more than 2 m sea ice. See: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

GFS 00z run is bad news with a continuos hammering by a HUGE high pressure in the Pacific sector, especially later in the forecast period in 5-7 days. It would be a miracle if IJIS September minimum value doesn't drop below 5 Million km2... I just wonder what if this had been 2013 and not 2015...

//LMV

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2177 on: July 17, 2015, 08:47:49 AM »
Major bulk of smoke is to enter well into the Arctic in the next few days, see MODIS.

Todays image also reveals the increasing sparsity of floes at Beaufort. the DMI does not seem believable in that area, definitely.

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2178 on: July 17, 2015, 08:49:19 AM »


The 00Z gfs is epic.

The Hudson and Baffin are holding things up. 

This year is gonna see a huge volume loss of this dipole doesn't break down
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 173
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2179 on: July 17, 2015, 09:01:56 AM »
8 degrees C  SST in the Chukchi and 16 C ( 60 F ) in Norton sound.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif

Those are sickening numbers.  If that water gets swept north, or ice gets swept into it, it will be a great deal of trouble.
This space for Rent.

BornFromTheVoid

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 998
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2180 on: July 17, 2015, 10:36:44 AM »
The -ve NAO this month has had quite a an impact on the average SLP anomaly over the last 2 months.

SLP anomaly from May 15th to June 30th



May 15th to July 15th



So far this month



As Chris has pointed out, this pattern is very similar to the dominant summer pattern of the 2007-2012 period. During 2007-2012 (2013 and 2014), the average summer (JJA) AO was -0.4 (-0.1), while the NAO averaged -1.2 (0.0). We've seen similar so far this month, with the NAO averaging around -1.4 and the AO around -1.1.

The latest models very much suggest a continuation of this pattern for the foreseeable future. This particular configuration of a weakly -ve AO and moderately or strongly -ve NAO promotes a circulation of warm air up through the CAA into the Arctic and then southward into the Atlantic promoting additional export. This could have some strong impacts on volume should it continue.

The image below shows how this circulation of air occurred during the summer of 2012, and very likely contributed to the record low values seen.




With this set up, we should see continued strong losses, so it may be a good test as to how important the May melt pond priming is.


Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2181 on: July 17, 2015, 11:58:34 AM »
how many here have seen CC_Reanalyzers new product with 5-days mean values for different parameters as wind, temps, precip? If you haven't, here's the link: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/WeeklySummary/

One interesting thing is that the forecast calls for 10-30 mm precipitation in the Laptev Sea. This amount seems to be falling right now and if this comes as rain which it seems the ice there should get "poof" quickly... In addition, surface winds at 10 meter about 10 m/s should imply absolutely worst conditions for the sea ice..

Also, 2-15 mm of precipitation is scheduled for the area north of ESS.

//LMV


Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2182 on: July 17, 2015, 12:06:05 PM »
After a slight dip.  Temps have started to climb again back towards the absolute warmest on record.

To get 20-25 days at least in a row is very rare in the historical records at the level we are seeing right now.

This kind of persistence is when the ice really gets crushed.



My biggest Ace in the hole that will help big big time to get 2015 down around 2011.

Is this wall of beat building and marching into the basin.

We can see how much progress its made.

The forecasts show winds blowing southerly off this warm water into the ESS and Western CAB.

Add in the major WAA and some sun and this huge open water region launching from the Chuchki/ESS ridges will warm up easy. 

This is a huge wild card.  The ice edge will be all the way to 75N or more in 7 days. 



These Beaufort readings are real.  The ice is so broken up with so much open water pockets of places are warming to at least 1-2C. 

That's a good 6-8CM a day just on bottom.

Given the weather forecasts probably by early August the Pacific side will collapse.

I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

  • Administrator
  • First-year ice
  • *****
  • Posts: 7270
    • View Profile
    • Arctic Sea Ice Blog
  • Liked: 758
  • Likes Given: 488
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2183 on: July 17, 2015, 12:31:34 PM »
The 00Z gfs is epic.

The Hudson and Baffin are holding things up. 

This year is gonna see a huge volume loss of this dipole doesn't break down

Like Celine Dion once sang: Baby, this is serious.  :)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2184 on: July 17, 2015, 02:27:41 PM »
The Fram Strait export machine will be on, full throttle, according to Climate Reanalyzer, in a week (Orange = High Pressure, Purple = low pressure):


Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3203
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 475
  • Likes Given: 215
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2185 on: July 17, 2015, 03:20:41 PM »
Further to my post on the 15th, in the past decade per DMI, it looks like only 2008 had a higher 'north of 80' temperature.  2015's temperature remains high (as of yesterday).
According to DMI, the latest 'north of 80' temperature is higher than at any time in 2012.  ...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

jr47

  • New ice
  • Posts: 14
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2186 on: July 17, 2015, 05:04:31 PM »
    'Tis interesting to look back at the DMI  temperature graphs and compare with 2015. Even way back to 1960 the graph is showing (modelling?) a warmish Arctic.Or is the data based on different parameters?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_1960.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

Phil.

Andreas T

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1136
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 18
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2187 on: July 17, 2015, 06:20:22 PM »
    'Tis interesting to look back at the DMI  temperature graphs and compare with 2015. Even way back to 1960 the graph is showing (modelling?) a warmish Arctic.Or is the data based on different parameters?
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_1960.png

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

Phil.
You are right, the main thing is that air temperature is not telling us much about what is happening over the ice. With surface temperatures pegged to the melting point there isn't a trend to be expected. what makes the difference is how much ice is below the surface. If those temperatures in the 60s show warm air getting into the arctic it had less effect on the thicker ice. The big difference are  the winter temperatures and what less ice makes possible for solar input over the summer which isn't shown in temperatures because it melts ice.

Lord M Vader

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1263
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 26
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2188 on: July 17, 2015, 11:33:11 PM »
The DMI graph reveals that the years 1990-1991, 1993-1994 and 1998 were really warm years in the Arctic areas north of 80oN.

To use Frivs words: ECMWF and GFS 12z runs are really bad news for the ice. Worst of the two models is without any doubt the GFS. GFS run crush the ice, hammering it ruthlessly for another week and put the Beaufort gyre back to life pushing the MYI ice closer to death. And it sets up a decent dipole set up.

How long will this huge high pressure stay and how big will the decline in extent and area numbers be until July 31?!

Stephen

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 114
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 14
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2189 on: July 18, 2015, 01:54:26 AM »
......
clip...clip...

A few uneducated observations.
1)Despite a continuous build up of CO2 levels, we had a 'hiatus' in global temps, which physics says must have risen and therefore is somewhere in the global system unrecorded.
.....

I distinctly remember a High School science experiment which I would love to reproduce and stick on youtube somewhere.

Just take a 1 litre beaker of full of ice cubes, fill to the top of the cubes with water.  Just enough water to fill the gaps but not lift any cubes off the bottom.  Put in a scientific thermometer with the bulb in the centre then put on a bunsen burner and start recording the temperature rise. 

The graph will look like this: 


As a 15 year old, I remember being amazed that it wasn't just a straight line.  It was obvious that every calorie of heat was being used to melt the ice.  The water temp did not begin to rise until the only ice that was left were a few tiny cubes floating on top.

Now I am not claiming that this is the reason for the so-called pause.   The Earth's ice and water are not well mixed like the ice cubes in that beaker.  But it's worth pointing out to skeptics that we are only measuring air temperatures. In that experiment we were only measuring the temp of the water, we couldn't measure the rising temp of each individual ice cube. 

We really don't have much data on the temperatures of the global ice sheets or the ocean depths.    But the media always abbreviate Global atmospheric temperatures to Global temperatures which is something that we really should correct at every chance we get.

The purpose of that High School science experiment was to show us that temperature is not always a good measure of heat content.  But I suspect that most skeptics weren't paying attention in high school science.
The ice was here, the ice was there,   
The ice was all around:
It crack'd and growl'd, and roar'd and howl'd,   
Like noises in a swound!
  Rime of the Ancient Mariner by Samuel Taylor Coleridge

jdallen

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3024
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 190
  • Likes Given: 173
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2190 on: July 18, 2015, 02:19:33 AM »
LRC - no such thing as a hiatus. Just heat going different places; to wit:

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
This space for Rent.

anotheramethyst

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 141
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2191 on: July 18, 2015, 02:37:10 AM »
there was no hiatus.  the surface air temp DID keep going up.  every decade has been hotter than the decade before.  its just that some measures of temerature didn't climb as high as some early models predicted.  it DOES NOT IN ANY WAY warrant the level of attention it receives.  i've seen dozens of papers refute the "hiatus" different ways.  they wrire "hiatus" in quotes because there isn't one.  some heat melted the arctic.  some heat went deeper in the oceans.  some was natural variability in a complex system.  and most mentions of the "hiatus" were surface temperature charts that started in 1998.  anyone starting a temp chart in 1998 just told u literally everything u need to know about their data.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2192 on: July 18, 2015, 09:27:48 AM »
there was no hiatus.  the surface air temp DID keep going up.  every decade has been hotter than the decade before.  its just that some measures of temerature didn't climb as high as some early models predicted.  it DOES NOT IN ANY WAY warrant the level of attention it receives.  i've seen dozens of papers refute the "hiatus" different ways.  they wrire "hiatus" in quotes because there isn't one.  some heat melted the arctic.  some heat went deeper in the oceans.  some was natural variability in a complex system.  and most mentions of the "hiatus" were surface temperature charts that started in 1998.  anyone starting a temp chart in 1998 just told u literally everything u need to know about their data.

The hiatus was not statistically significant, so the trend was not broken, but it is there in the context of the previous rise in GISSLOTI. I commented on this at Tamino's.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/04/30/slowdown-skeptic/#comment-88381
Tamino's comment is telling given how sceptical he has been about a slowdown.

cesium62

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 286
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2193 on: July 18, 2015, 10:41:11 AM »
A few uneducated observations.
1)Despite a continuous build up of CO2 levels, we had a 'hiatus' in global temps, which physics says must have risen and therefore is somewhere in the global system unrecorded.

No, we didn't.  HADCRUT4, which actually pays attention to the polar regions, does not show a hiatus.  And cherry picking one peak event in a noisy series of events does not lead to a conclusion that there was a hiatus.


seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2194 on: July 18, 2015, 11:25:54 AM »
there was no hiatus.  the surface air temp DID keep going up.  every decade has been hotter than the decade before.  its just that some measures of temerature didn't climb as high as some early models predicted.  it DOES NOT IN ANY WAY warrant the level of attention it receives.  i've seen dozens of papers refute the "hiatus" different ways.  they wrire "hiatus" in quotes because there isn't one.  some heat melted the arctic.  some heat went deeper in the oceans.  some was natural variability in a complex system.  and most mentions of the "hiatus" were surface temperature charts that started in 1998.  anyone starting a temp chart in 1998 just told u literally everything u need to know about their data.

The hiatus was not statistically significant, so the trend was not broken, but it is there in the context of the previous rise in GISSLOTI. I commented on this at Tamino's.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/04/30/slowdown-skeptic/#comment-88381
Tamino's comment is telling given how sceptical he has been about a slowdown.

Man that comment was brilliant.
There was another "hey look at what going on" moment if you see the global temp from 1940-1955. Not being a statistically significant change just like now, the downward tendency of temperature (almost 1 whole °F in 15ys!) made scientists start to think about it and  during the 60s global dimming theories started to be built up. Were scientists wrong in doing that?. Not exactly, it was that brief period  of conjectures where you may become the next brilliant discoverer or risk being dismissed as a clown. By the 70s all that was dying.
Still, jdallen link is killer !!!!

Totally Off Topic by now. Sorry but it was so compelling

Edit: I cc this at the AGW thread should people want to continue there
Edit edit: wherever it is
« Last Edit: July 18, 2015, 02:52:47 PM by seaicesailor »

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2195 on: July 18, 2015, 12:47:46 PM »
2013 and 2014 are about to come to a screeching halt.

2014 might slow down relative to them.

But I bet unless a cold Core arctic cyclone takes over by July 26th or so by the first week of August 2015 will be at least 500-650km2 below 13/14 in area.

The euro gfs and naefs ensemble means all show dominant ridging into August





I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Frivolousz21

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1507
  • Live in Belleville, IL..15 miles SE of St. Louis.
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 140
  • Likes Given: 2
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2196 on: July 18, 2015, 12:50:56 PM »
Volume is f*****.

Surface Temps in the CAB reached 2-3C today.

That is really awful. 

The pattern is changing  slightly so that the Western CAB and Beaufort get smoked The most. 

But either way its warm everywhere.

The models have this pattern locked in hardcore.

Look at this modis image. It's only July 17th.  75 percent of the average melt  hasnt even happened yet.

A few days of sun and Southerly flow the Western CAB and Beaufort will have bottom melt conditions explode to 4-6CM a day.  Already at 2-3CM.

Add on 2-3CM top melt a day. 

6-9CM over 30 days is 2 meters of melt.

That's where we are heading.


The entire NWP will melt.  It's shatterin now while it gets super torched.









We might not make 2011/2007. 

But 2008 territory is my mark with lower volume.


2010 had a great start but wasted like 35 days in a row during peak insolation.

There is a major dipole right now crushing the CAB and we have 19 days left above 400W/M2 which is high enough for major melt.
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

seaicesailor

  • Guest
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2197 on: July 18, 2015, 01:29:53 PM »

Just by compaction Beaufort might lose 100K extent next week (10 cm/s average over 1500 Km front, conservative estimate).
During past week it lost 30 K with almost no compaction.

It might lose 100-150 K km2 of extent in 1 week leaving it below 200 K, much closer to 2012 and certainly below 2014.
Well see how it plays.

ChrisReynolds

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1714
    • View Profile
    • Dosbat
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2198 on: July 18, 2015, 04:36:40 PM »
A new page and we're back on sea ice.  ;)

Sea Ice Sailor,

I have a suspicion that Beaufort might be surprisingly resilient this year and that the melt there will remain only slightly greater than average.

Nightvid Cole

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2199 on: July 18, 2015, 04:59:34 PM »
A new page and we're back on sea ice.  ;)

Sea Ice Sailor,

I have a suspicion that Beaufort might be surprisingly resilient this year and that the melt there will remain only slightly greater than average.

Greater than *which* average? 1979-2000? 1981-2010? 2007-present?