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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4050 on: September 15, 2015, 04:05:52 AM »
Extent minimum passed now?

Today's U. Bremen update appears to show considerable refreeze in the low concentration ice pack on  the Pacific side. Most of the rest of the ice pack had already frozen up but that hadn't mattered much for extent or even area because concentrations had anyway been close to 100% prior to freeze up.

The only remaining region showing considerable ice loss, or at least compaction, is next to the Laptev Sea, where the ice pack edge continues to retreat, now within about 6-3/4 degrees from the Pole (at ~145E).

Click on gif to see comparison between today's and yesterday's U. Bremen ice concentration maps:

« Last Edit: September 15, 2015, 04:12:48 AM by slow wing »

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4051 on: September 15, 2015, 04:57:50 AM »
Just for fun, below is a gif comparing the 13 September ice concentration maps for the 4 years using data from the current satellite, namely 2012, 2013, 2014 and this year, 2015.

Visually, 2012 looks dramatically the smallest while 2013 looks by far the biggest even though it was in a virtual tie with 2014 in both assessments of minima that we used here for polls, namely NSIDC Arctic SIE September minimum and Cryosphere Today  Arctic SIA daily minimum.

Note that the comparison is somewhat skewed in starting with 2012 - the year with by far the lowest minima in the satellite record. A comparison showing still further years at this date can be seen at
https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0913

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4052 on: September 15, 2015, 06:25:58 AM »
Slow Wing: you are missing that the ice in the northern Hudson Bay, Queen Maud and south of the Parry Channel, both in the CAA, have been melting/compacting rather good the last couple of days.

The ice in Hudson Bay have loosen its grip from Southampton Island. While I believe we may see a few more days with more or less stalling SIE - values the minimum should occur in 1-2 days from now. However, if the refreezing will be slow and/if the crap ice in Chuckchi melts out it would be possible to have a rather late minimum.

Best, LMV

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4053 on: September 15, 2015, 09:01:12 AM »
Definitely the ESS protuberance left from 2013 to 2015 is gradually becoming another bovine head  ;D

Actually the gif loop looks like a 4-year cycle, 2012 seems what is to come in 2016. Just saying :--)

Tensor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4054 on: September 15, 2015, 04:16:44 PM »
Actually the gif loop looks like a 4-year cycle, 2012 seems what is to come in 2016. Just saying :--)

Someone, near the beginning of the melt season, mentioned the similarities (temps, weather, ice positioning, etc.  I wish I could remember) between 2011 and 2015 and how they expected 2015 would be low, but not a record.  They expected 2016 to set the new record, based on the 2015 melt basically prepping the pack for a record melt the next year. Again, while it's something I remembered reading here, I just can't remember the specifics, but the general idea stuck with me.
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Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4055 on: September 15, 2015, 08:41:46 PM »
Tensor, I doubt this is the reference you are looking for but I posted this on the the June CT poll.
I was watching early melting on the Pacific side and thought maybe similar to record pacific inflow and heat from 2011. 1.1 Sv inflow from 2011 if I recall correctly but we don't have exact numbers this year because buoy array is no longer there. Anyhow 2011 was one year after a mild El Nino in 2010 and that is why I thought there might be similarities with  this year and the also mild El Nino like conditions 2014.

With anomalous warm water in the Bering Sea

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif
 
And southerly winds over the next ~ week
 
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=bering_wind

Extra heat will be moving into the Chukchi + Beaufort.  Maybe similar to 2011

Melting on the multi-year ice in the Beaufort should be enhanced IMO
 
Plenty of high SST water on the Atlantic side so Arctic Ice is being caught in a pincer
and freshwater inflows should be extra warm also.

  " 2.75-3.00 "

p.s. I jumped up one bin after June

 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4056 on: September 15, 2015, 09:15:43 PM »
If the Healy data (below map or from, for example, Healy thread Reply #146) is to be believed, the water temperature at 85º N has mostly been hovering just above the temperature where sea ice stops melting.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4057 on: September 15, 2015, 10:53:40 PM »
NSIDC has right now announced a preliminary minimum at 4.41 Mn km2 occurring by September 11 at the fourth lowest place.

//LMV

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4058 on: September 16, 2015, 04:04:07 AM »
Big ice growth on the Pacific side in today's U. Bremen update so, yep, it looks like the refreeze is underway.

Click on gif to compare yesterday's and today's maps...

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4059 on: September 16, 2015, 10:16:33 AM »
It will be interesting to watch the freeze up in the Atlantic, wot with the Gulf Stream's northern warm end moving south and the big puddle of cold south of Greenland. 

skanky

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4060 on: September 16, 2015, 10:20:10 AM »
Quote
This year’s minimum is 1.81 million square kilometers (699,000 square miles) lower than the 1981-2010 average. Sea ice cover melted at a relatively slow rate in June, the month when the Arctic receives the most solar energy. However, the rate of ice loss accelerated in July, and faster than normal loss rates continued through August, a transition month when ice losses typically begins to slow. A big “hole” appeared in the ice pack in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas in August. The huge opening allowed the ocean to absorb more solar energy, accelerating the melting process. While weather conditions in September could change the minimum extent number or date, it is unlikely that the ranking as the fourth lowest year on record will change when final numbers have been tallied.

“Arctic ice cover becomes less and less resilient and it doesn’t take as much to melt it as it used to,” Meier said. The sea ice cap, which used to be a solid sheet of ice, is now fragmented into smaller floes that are exposed to warm water on more sides. “In the past, Arctic sea ice was like a fortress. The ocean could only attack it from the sides. Now it’s like the invaders have tunneled in from underneath and the ice pack melts from within.”

From EOB: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=86607&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_readmore

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4061 on: September 16, 2015, 06:26:59 PM »
Skanky

Great article.

skanky

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4062 on: September 16, 2015, 07:17:31 PM »
Skanky

Great article.

Thanks, yes. That site is one of my daily reads.

EDIT to add:

UKMO

Quote
This year, the start of the melt season in May and June was relatively cool in most of the Arctic Ocean, similar to 2013 and 2014, due to a lack of the persistent southerly winds which characterised the early melt season in 2012, and probably also due to quite cyclonic conditions, which may have increased cloud cover, reducing the amount of sunlight hitting the ice.

However in July the weather changed and sea ice rapidly melted and loss during this month was the third highest on record.

In August stormy conditions helped the ice to become dispersed while in late August the ice edge retreated further and a weakening sun meant meltponds rapidly froze over. As September began, ice edge retreat stalled.

This melt season demonstrates the ongoing vulnerability of the thinning sea ice cover. The long-term decline in summer sea ice extent has been linked to warming winter temperatures, wind-driven loss of multiyear sea ice and earlier loss of snow cover in the land bordering the Arctic Ocean - all of which serve to increase the vulnerability of the sea ice to melt during the summer.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2015/arctic-sea-ice
« Last Edit: September 16, 2015, 09:18:13 PM by skanky »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4063 on: September 16, 2015, 10:49:21 PM »
The wind is whipping up the water in the vicinity of O-Buoy 10 once again:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-2015-16-images/#OBuoy10
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4064 on: September 16, 2015, 11:00:32 PM »
This bears repeating from the researchers aboard R/V Sikuliaq, currently in the Beaufort Sea:

Quote
We have been genuinely thunderstruck by how incredibly strong the turbulence is below the surface. This heat is likely playing a substantial role in the melting of the ice that we can see all around us, growing thinner every day.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4065 on: September 17, 2015, 12:41:44 AM »
Neven, would you please call the minimum so that we can see some more melting?  It would be sweet to get firmly into third place and you're just the guy who could push us over the line.

 ;)

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4066 on: September 17, 2015, 01:21:14 AM »
Okay, Bob, I've just returned from a warmer Adriatic Sea than I have ever swam in, and because it's you, I hereby call the minimum, although I did more or less do so by agreeing with Kevin McKinney over on the ASIB that IJIS/JAXA/ADS-NIPR had hit the minimum, after which it did one of those lovely double dips.  ;D

So maybe we should start moving the daily discussion to the re-freeze thread?

Seems to me the upper part of the ESS arm is starting to look like sort of a sheep head, or goat head. My imagination  ::) :--)

I've been thinking the very same thing for a couple of days now. It's the son of Goat's Head.  :)
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4067 on: September 17, 2015, 11:04:05 AM »
Today's U. Bremen update shows a moderate continuation of the refreeze establishing itself, particularly on the Pacific side. A bit of ice is starting to appear outside the Arctic Basin proper, e.g. in the Hudson Bay.

No dramatic winds are forecast on Climate Reanalyser site although some winds slightly above 10 m/s are predicted and, speculatively, there might also be somewhat stronger winds than that by around the middle of next week.

So I'm still thinking the minimum has been reached even though Neven has called it...  :P

Click on gif for the comparison between yesterday's and today's maps...

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4068 on: September 17, 2015, 02:01:25 PM »
So I'm still thinking the minimum has been reached even though Neven has called it...  :P
To double the jinx, I've now also called it on the blog: Minimum and MYI;)
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4069 on: September 19, 2015, 07:37:17 PM »
It may be of some interest that the University of Bremen (UiB) have released a sort note of the 2015 minimum, claiming it to be the fourth lowest on record. Moreover, UiB found the minimum to occur by September 6(!) See more at: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/#Minimum

UiB also shows a direct comparison between 2015, 2012 and 2007. The most pronounced difference is in the northern part of East Greenland where sea ice was present in both 2007 and 2012. See attached pic. Courtesy: University of Bremen.



//LMV

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4070 on: September 19, 2015, 08:44:30 PM »
It may be of some interest that the University of Bremen (UiB) have released a sort note of the 2015 minimum, claiming it to be the fourth lowest on record. Moreover, UiB found the minimum to occur by September 6(!) See more at: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/#Minimum

UiB also shows a direct comparison between 2015, 2012 and 2007. The most pronounced difference is in the northern part of East Greenland where sea ice was present in both 2007 and 2012. See attached pic. Courtesy: University of Bremen.



//LMV
What strikes me, LMV, looking at that image, is while the scalar values comparing the various years have the illusion of large differences, the practical difference in coverage across years, even including 2012, is not so great.  2007 was definitely a transition point to a new system state.
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Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4071 on: September 19, 2015, 09:29:42 PM »
Jdallen
Quote
What strikes me, LMV, looking at that image, is while the scalar values comparing the various years have the illusion of large differences, the practical difference in coverage across years, even including 2012, is not so great.  2007 was definitely a transition point to a new system state.

What were the numbers on final area for 2012 and 2015?
I missed it.

If that arm near East Siberian Sea had gone, it looks like the minimum could have been a lot less.
And although it is very hard to tell with all the constant clouds, that arm has shrunk a lot in the last week or two, and still appears to be breaking up with some thin ice appeared but then gone again.
Here is a snapshot of it through the clouds today.

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4072 on: September 19, 2015, 09:43:58 PM »

Jim Hunt
Quote
This bears repeating from the researchers aboard R/V Sikuliaq, currently in the Beaufort Sea:
Quote
    We have been genuinely thunderstruck by how incredibly strong the turbulence is below the surface. This heat is likely playing a substantial role in the melting of the ice that we can see all around us, growing thinner every day.
When is this quote from? Just curious if it is recent?
Thanks.



Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4073 on: September 19, 2015, 10:56:25 PM »
When is this quote from? Just curious if it is recent?
Thanks.

Click through my link to discover it dates from "Sep 16, 2015"
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Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4074 on: September 19, 2015, 11:46:53 PM »
Jim Hunt
Quote
Click through my link to discover it dates from "Sep 16, 2015"
Thanks.
I did click through the links earlier, but I wasn't totally sure. And I am going to go through the links more later today. Great info. thanks. And I always check your blog from time to time.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2015, 11:53:58 PM by Gonzo »

oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4075 on: September 20, 2015, 04:40:57 PM »
It may be of some interest that the University of Bremen (UiB) have released a sort note of the 2015 minimum, claiming it to be the fourth lowest on record. Moreover, UiB found the minimum to occur by September 6(!) See more at: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/#Minimum

UiB also shows a direct comparison between 2015, 2012 and 2007. The most pronounced difference is in the northern part of East Greenland where sea ice was present in both 2007 and 2012. See attached pic. Courtesy: University of Bremen.



//LMV

This map clearly shows the lack of Fram export, and the role that the MYI played in the ESS goathead and the remnants in Beafort, both in holding up the extent and in protecting the rest of the pack. Had there not been that MYI, the minimum would have been a lot less, which for me calls into question the "slow transition" claim that once the MYI is gone we will reach some kind of steady state with slow decline.
In addition, Had there been a lot of Fram export, things could have been quite different.

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4076 on: September 20, 2015, 07:25:13 PM »
Oren
Quote
In addition, Had there been a lot of Fram export, things could have been quite different.
There was a lot of Fram export as usual I think, and it still looks like it is exporting significant ice into the Atlantic as we speak.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2015, 09:14:18 PM by Gonzo »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4077 on: September 20, 2015, 07:53:30 PM »
There is this discussion on how such an amount of in-place melting could happen with a weather not particularly fierce (July exception).

What about plain and simple greenhouse effect trapping more heat from sun than previous years, right at the Arctic? CO2 keeps on the rise, global temps are at record levels; the Arctic heat budget should not be an exception on this. Arctic ocean can absorb more heat and its "air thermometer" would not  rise even a tenth of °C.

Speculate too that aerosol dimming from BRIC countries, China in particular, would be moderating since 2013. News is that China has been hiding a big economic slowdown since then.
 

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4078 on: September 24, 2015, 04:32:48 PM »
Maybe just temporary, but re-freeze has stalled, reversed in several regions, likely due to warmer SSTs, due to longer melt season because of warmest year on record globally. Thin ice from recent re-freeze has half melted and old ice from this summer has broken up more and reduced since Sept. 16 -- Beaufort, Fram Laptev, and Siberian Sea. Glimpses show possibly the same along CAB but not clear.
This shows the arm towards Siberian Sea, Sept. 12 and Sept. 24 (same thing going on in the other places mentioned.)
Sept. 16 on top
Sept. 24 on bottom.
« Last Edit: September 25, 2015, 03:08:13 PM by Gonzo »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4079 on: September 24, 2015, 05:50:35 PM »
There was a lot of Fram export as usual I think, and it still looks like it is exporting significant ice into the Atlantic as we speak.

Not over the summer there wasn't. Compare the NPEO ice mass balance buoy track for 2015 (2015D) with previous years:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/



Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4080 on: September 24, 2015, 07:06:35 PM »
Jim Hunt
Quote
Not over the summer there wasn't. Compare the NPEO ice mass balance buoy track for 2015 (2015D) with previous years:
Maybe you're right, but it looks like it might be out of the main flow that goes through the Fram. This video is several years, so it moves very fast but over just one summer, you can see that the ice gets bunged up each summer above Svalbard towards NP. Most of the Fram export seems to come from west along N. Greenland coast and even as far as west of Lincoln Sea --->
But yea, maybe the Fram had less export than usual, and perhaps that video this does not represent the whole ice flow.



« Last Edit: September 24, 2015, 11:15:10 PM by Gonzo »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4081 on: September 25, 2015, 08:19:52 PM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4082 on: September 25, 2015, 10:20:55 PM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

if we're really looking at the arctic as a whole, meaning anything north of the arctic circle, it could well be that the number of days without any melt could be a handful only, close to zero eventually. i mean almost the whole year over one can see sporadic melting ( ponds ) popping up in one or the other corner. this is not a scientific statement, but a suspicion. LOL

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4083 on: September 26, 2015, 01:55:40 AM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

if we're really looking at the arctic as a whole, meaning anything north of the arctic circle, it could well be that the number of days without any melt could be a handful only, close to zero eventually. i mean almost the whole year over one can see sporadic melting ( ponds ) popping up in one or the other corner. this is not a scientific statement, but a suspicion. LOL

Makes sense. Curiosity satisfied.

:--)

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4084 on: September 29, 2015, 04:01:50 PM »

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4085 on: September 30, 2015, 08:15:09 AM »
While the Arctic basin on the whole is refreezing there is still some melting going on in the periphery. The stubbornish ice pack in Foxe basin and for some degree also in Davis Strait and Queen Maud have easened its grip. The change is most notably in Foxe basin where the ice is virtually gone. Only a minor ice strip is remaining there now.

The ice in Queen Maud will most likely survive this melting season. In Davis Strait there is a possibility that the ice survives too but in Foxe basin I think it will be gone with the wind soon.

See more at: https://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/

//LMV

ra3000

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4086 on: September 30, 2015, 10:19:11 AM »
I have my doubts about what will happen with Foxe Basin few remaining ice. The area will start cooling fast the following days (since the first week of October), so it still have chances of surviving or refreezing fast just after melted.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4087 on: October 01, 2015, 09:00:22 AM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

Oct 1, still some melting above 80°N

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4088 on: October 01, 2015, 09:30:58 AM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

Oct 1, still some melting above 80°N
... based on what evidence?  A 1 pixel shift in the snow cover that could easily be instrumental noise or effects of wind?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4089 on: October 01, 2015, 01:33:00 PM »
The melting season was over in Sep 11, but that doesn't mean there hasn't been some ongoing melting since.

Anybody knows if/when there is no more melting at any location over the Arctic ocean during the refreezing season?



EDIT: above represented the ice and snow cover thicknesses measured by 2015F buoy, at CAB above 80N.

Oct 1, still some melting above 80°N
... based on what evidence?  A 1 pixel shift in the snow cover that could easily be instrumental noise or effects of wind?

O-kay. It may be just flat.

Nice paradox: ice still not getting thicker at this high latitude, but ice thickness started to increase from zero at lower latitudes. I guess ice insulation has something to do with it.
Not saying it is something special of this or recent years, just an observation.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4090 on: October 02, 2015, 08:06:07 AM »
<snippage>
O-kay. It may be just flat.

Nice paradox: ice still not getting thicker at this high latitude, but ice thickness started to increase from zero at lower latitudes. I guess ice insulation has something to do with it.
Not saying it is something special of this or recent years, just an observation.

It is flat.  No surprise, considering (a) lots of insulation and (b) mild temperatures.  Definitely not optimal for dumping the accumulated heat out of the underlying ocean... which at -1.4C is pretty seriously "warm".  It has half a degree of heat to dump before we see significant thickening start, m'thinks.

Watching the rapid extent increases in IJIS, I'm wondering if that is building just off the core CAB, or if we're having peripheral increases anywhere.  Hard to imagine that, considering how amazingly warm the peripheral seas are.

Key to volume and extent recovery this winter will be just how fast those seas can dump their heat.  If it lingers, and we get more input from storms deep into the arctic as last year, start expecting a new "min-max" this coming February.


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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4091 on: October 09, 2015, 11:27:24 PM »
While this thread is almost dead I think it's fitting to say that the ice in Foxe basin in northern Hudson Bay DID melt out! This in accordance to new ice by the same time is forming in the most northern part according to Canadas Ice Service.

In Davis Strait a lot of the remaining ice is still alive and I strongly doubt it will be able to disappear as we now are in October.

All in all, we now see what a brutal cold winter can do!

If Mr. Neven and Co find it suitable I think this post should be the end to the 2015 melting season thread and that a most likely exciting 2016 melt season will be around the corner..

But first, we will deal with a potential "Godzilla El Niño" which may have some effects for the upcoming melt season.. In addition, we may turn our eyes to the melt season in Antarctica even though it's not as exciting as the Arctic melt season...
 
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #4092 on: October 09, 2015, 11:40:12 PM »
Well spoken, LMV.
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