The reason I brought it up in the other thread (thanks for continuing the discussion here, seaicesailor), is that the temperature on the DMI 80N graph is relatively high now, but dipping again. Last year and in 2013 it dipped below average around day 125 (next week) and stayed below average. I'm interested this year, but as seaicesailor points out in the
other thread years like 2007, 2011 and 2012 also dipped below the average around day 125 and more or less stayed below it until September.
Still - and I know I'm changing my mind again - those other years stayed closer to the average than 2013 and 2014.
The reason that I'm interested in this graph, which I don't consider that trustworthy, is that I want to get a feel for what happens during Melt Pond May, as this first phase of the melting season is so important for the remainder. Like I
wrote on the ASIB the other day:
One of the main reasons I wanted to attend EGU2015, was to hear more about how they assess the preconditioning that takes place in the transition phase from freezing to melting season. I mean, the amateur community here has got a reasonably good handle on initial conditions when the freezing season ends, and we also know how to interpret weather conditions and what they do to the sea ice once the melting season gets under way for real. But it's impossible for us to get an idea of what happens in between.
(...)
I went to EGU mostly because I was curious and because it's fun, but also to try to learn a bit more about melt ponds and that preconditioning phase of the melting season that plays a big role in the amount of momentum that gets built up towards the second half of the melting season. We absolutely need to get a handle on that if we want to know the range of possibilities for the September average.
So most of what I'll be saying here and on the ASIB in weeks to come will be with this in my mind. And I'm also looking at everything with this in mind, including the DMI 80N temp graph. I think that if this year's trend line stays well below the average like it did in 2013 and 2014, this is a sign of not enough melt ponding for 2015 to do something spectacular and break records. If it more or less hugs the average trend like it did in 2007, 2011 and 2012, anything is still possible.
Mind you, I'm not necessarily talking about the flat line when temps go above freezing (but can't go higher because of the ice). I'm talking about the period preceding it, Melt Pond May and Junction June.
