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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #600 on: April 21, 2015, 05:49:07 PM »
For what it's worth, for illustration, WorldView's given us a pretty good look at it (from 4/21/2015 - click for full resolution).

Svalbard to the right, Northern tip of Greenland at the bottom.  Covers the Fram approaches and the bottom of the area previously mentioned.

Full Worldview Link:
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,Reference_Labels%28hidden%29,Reference_Features%28hidden%29,Coastlines&t=2015-04-21&v=-430130.50620178215,-797927.5028699739,1076173.4937982177,-76007.50286997383

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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #601 on: April 22, 2015, 01:05:45 AM »
Having done a lot of looking at older images in cryosphere today I get the impression that the ice in recent years has shown less of these unexplained temporary reductions in concentration near maximum.  I remember in particular Steve Goddard showing a comparison and trying to claim that the ice had never been in better shape because there was so much 100% concentration ice according to CT. I've never thought to much about them, but wouldn't be surprised if surface ice roughness could contribute.  In previous decades older multi-year ice may have been a lot rougher with more ridges etc, more often throwing back confused echoes and showing a reduced concentration.  In contrast first year ice that has frozen into a nice smooth but thin plate would throw back a nice consistent reflection. 

Perhaps when a storm passes over the ice there is some folding/ridging etc that roughens up the surface and confuses the echoes?  Although if that was the case the low concentration would stick around longer?
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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #602 on: April 22, 2015, 03:42:55 AM »
Can anyone comment on implications of the linked SciAm article stating that giant waves are destroying Arctic sea ice & ecosystems (I saw a similar article last year)?

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/giant-waves-quickly-destroy-arctic-ocean-ice-and-ecosystems1/
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Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #603 on: April 22, 2015, 08:59:32 AM »

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #604 on: April 22, 2015, 09:56:01 AM »
 The models are locked in on this pattern.

Definition going to be a large Pollyanna developing in the next 10 days.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #606 on: April 22, 2015, 01:23:38 PM »
Here are a couple of links to http://www.polarview.aq/arctic there's too much clutter on 72hrs. switch to 24. the first is just above Svalbard where there's a little open water.
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150421T141528_922B_N_1.jpg
This is the one next to it going west parallel to 60e meridian
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150421T141628_31D3_N_1.jpg
Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to but it looks like there's a lot of isolated small cracks exposing open ocean even more apparent if you go for full resolution.

johnm33

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #607 on: April 23, 2015, 11:15:53 AM »
A great snapshot of the ice west of the north west tip of Banks island, you can see the ice forming as the gaps open.
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20150422T014437_A248_N_1.jpg

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #608 on: April 23, 2015, 11:36:24 AM »
Ice mass balance buoy 2015A is located on fast ice near Prudhoe Bay. Whilst the dedicated air temperature sensor currently reads -2.34 °C the thermistors just above the ice (and lacking a mini Stevenson screen) reveal the following:

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #609 on: April 23, 2015, 12:08:03 PM »
Like Carex says on Wipneus' AMSR2 thread, it could have to do with that low sitting there:

Has your avatar changed recently Neven?

That low has gone away, the sun has come out, a bear has been checking out Barneo, yet AMSR2 still shows a large area of reduced concentration:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Carex

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #610 on: April 23, 2015, 12:40:32 PM »
The area along 15degE fits well with fractured ice north of Svalbard.  But the ice around the pole is  about the least fractured in the entire Arctic Ocean (except maybe a bit along 60degW towards Lincoln).  Anyone have a good buddy working with AMSR2 who might offer insight?

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #611 on: April 23, 2015, 01:19:35 PM »
But the ice around the pole is  about the least fractured in the entire Arctic Ocean

Which reminds me of this image from the Barneo Journal on April 21st.

Which doesn't negate your point I hasten to add!
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #612 on: April 23, 2015, 02:00:18 PM »
Has your avatar changed recently Neven?

Yes, and I will probably change it again soon.  :)
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #613 on: April 23, 2015, 03:10:35 PM »
Euro and GFS forecasts for Monday are among the worst for ice I have seen since following here 2013. Very high Greenland High, strong Fram export, large inflow of warm air from Pacific and Alaska into Beaufort and possibly sunny weather over there too (sorry for not posting maps, getting into grips with it )

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #614 on: April 23, 2015, 07:54:00 PM »
Euro and GFS forecasts for Monday are among the worst for ice I have seen since following here 2013. Very high Greenland High, strong Fram export, large inflow of warm air from Pacific and Alaska into Beaufort and possibly sunny weather over there too (sorry for not posting maps, getting into grips with it )

GFS shows surface wind through the Fram as consistently S/SE, at a minimum of about 20KPH, ranging up to 60KPH, for significant stretches of time.

Conservatively, that should Cause daily export of 10,000 KM2 of ice out of the central arctic basin, and make room for a lot of open water.

A big part of what saved the ice last year was lack of export; so little in fact ice just about melted out of the Greenland Sea completely.  Active Fram export would cause more turnover of water from depth and cause the remaining ice to spread out. Neither are positive for retention.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #615 on: April 24, 2015, 09:12:37 PM »
GFS Climate Reanalyzer shows snowmelt beginning in both the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea within the next 7 days. Let melt pond season begin!!!
« Last Edit: April 24, 2015, 09:21:45 PM by Nightvid Cole »

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #616 on: April 24, 2015, 09:45:04 PM »
GFS Climate Reanalyzer shows snowmelt beginning in both the Beaufort Sea and the Chukchi Sea within the next 7 days. Let melt pond season begin!!!
Beat me to it, Nightvid.  Temps across those areas and the Bering are predicted to be  ~10 above normal ... close to or just above zero C ... 7x24 for the next week.
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plg

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #617 on: April 25, 2015, 09:20:23 AM »
Does anybody know if the Calbuco eruption is big enough to affect the warming trend? And, what is the delay before we see the effects? I assume there would be several months of delay before there is an effect on the northern hemisphere, but I have not been able to find any reference I can make sense of.
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cats

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #618 on: April 25, 2015, 09:30:44 AM »
According this post on Climate Crocks - http://climatecrocks.com/2015/04/24/will-the-chilean-volcano-be-big-enough-to-cool-2015/#more-23560 (fixed link) Calbuco probably won't have much of a cooling effect.
« Last Edit: April 25, 2015, 06:28:34 PM by cats »

Sleepy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #619 on: April 25, 2015, 10:02:37 AM »
Wrong place to discuss volcanoes, but probably not. When I checked it the flight level was FL400, just above 12km so it's no more than a VEI4, if it continues to erupt.
http://www.smn.gov.ar/vaac/buenosaires/productos.php

Calbulcos history doesn't show any VEI4 or 5 in recent times.
http://www.volcano.si.edu/volcano.cfm?vn=358020

According to sernageomins latest update (giggle translated).
http://www.sernageomin.cl/volcan.php?iId=3
Quote
- From 04.23.2015 23:30 HL, has seen an increase in the surface activity of the volcano, framed by the presence of a column of particulate matter (maximum height of 2 km) with a preferential scattering to varying the northeast sector east-southeast in the afternoon. This process was sustained until the issuance of this report, and was accompanied by a continuous seismic tremor signal type (related to magmatic fluid movement within the volcanic system).
- The present volcanic activity suggests that the system has entered an unstable phase and sustained activity, which could be a precursor to a magmatic process that could generate lava flows and / or location dome surface.
There's also a small webcam in the link at the top there.

As comparison the amount of SO2 released from Mt St Helens (VEI5) was 1Mt, El Chichon (VEI5) and 7Mt, Pinatubo (VEI6), 20Mt. It's a long way to go to reach those numbers, let's see what happens.

Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #620 on: April 25, 2015, 11:55:42 AM »
Hmm, according to the buoys on

http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy10/weather

Temperatures around the Beaufort sea are plummeting.

plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #621 on: April 25, 2015, 04:21:59 PM »
To a decent part just day-night cycle. The other part is indeed a return to near-normal temperatures for a few hours due to some more normally temperated airmass coming through the archipelago.
See also here for a nice loop:
http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/animate.htm?ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f00_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f06_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f12_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f18_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f24_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f30_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f36_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f42_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f48_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f54_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f60_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f66_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f72_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f78_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f84_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f90_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f96_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f102_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f108_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f114_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f120_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f126_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f132_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f138_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f144_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f150_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f156_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f162_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_f168_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_mean_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_past07_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_past30_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_fcst30_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_pastMTH_equir.png,ANOM2m_equir/ANOM2m_fcstMTH_equir.png

wili

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #622 on: April 25, 2015, 06:52:15 PM »
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/04/nenana-ice-classic-2015/

Nenana Ice Classic 2015

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Unsurprisingly to anyone looking at the exceptionally warm winter on the West Coast of North America, the Nenana Ice Classic had another near-record early breakup on Friday, netting some lucky winner(s) around $300,000 in prizes.

As I’ve discussed previously (last year and an update), the Ice Classic is a lottery that has been run every year since 1917, based on the time and date of the break up of the ice on the Nenana river, some 50 miles from Fairbanks, AK. There has been a historically good correlation with seasonal temperatures in the region, and the long term trend (earlier break-up by about 6.6 days/century) is in line with expectations of overall warming in the region...





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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #623 on: April 26, 2015, 06:47:20 AM »
Current sea ice movement, per HYCOM.

This image is just absurd...

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epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #624 on: April 26, 2015, 07:12:18 AM »
Current sea ice movement, per HYCOM.

This image is just absurd...

Look at the northern Greenland coast on worldview... Don't have time to post images but in places there's ice flying off to the east which last year was fast through June and into July.

Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #625 on: April 26, 2015, 09:36:28 AM »
In Worldview, there is an icon wich gives you a link easy to post.
You mean that ? :

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #626 on: April 26, 2015, 12:56:18 PM »
In Worldview, there is an icon which gives you a link easy to post.

In this case: http://1.usa.gov/1OU7drU

I'm not sure if that's what epiphyte is getting at. However ITP 59 is in the vicinity, and is certainly heading eastwards at a rate of knots at the moment.



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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #627 on: April 26, 2015, 02:10:45 PM »
Current sea ice movement, per HYCOM.

This image is just absurd...

Look at the northern Greenland coast on worldview... Don't have time to post images but in places there's ice flying off to the east which last year was fast through June and into July.

By Tuesday this mega-burst of ice drift  will have finished

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf/nowcast/icespddrf2015042518_2015042800_040_arcticicespddrf.001.gif

although drift in Greenland coast and Beaufort will continue for a few days. In Beaufort ice has been being displaced and drifted away from coast for weeks.

Overall, I'd say March and April have been months of vigorous ice drift


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #628 on: April 26, 2015, 02:17:53 PM »
And talking about ice in Beaufort, I remember the McKenzie delta early melting played a role in 2012. Could this happen right now that (non-fast) ice has detached and warmer temperatures are arriving to AK and Canada? Or is it too early?

Edit: looked around and it is early, fast ice breakup did not happen until June. Pre-conditions were that main ice had been drifted away by strong gyre, and warm Spring in Canada and Alaska
« Last Edit: April 26, 2015, 02:24:13 PM by seaicesailor »

Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #629 on: April 26, 2015, 02:52:44 PM »
http://1.usa.gov/1Gv6tHQ
If you switch between 2014 and 2015, this year the cracks in Beaufort are in perfect timing for catastrophy...

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #630 on: April 26, 2015, 03:48:00 PM »
Nice "visual."  April 24th and 25th it REALLY started to move....en mass.....especially the 25th with the ice breaking away from the shoreline.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #631 on: April 26, 2015, 03:51:49 PM »
Ice at the Canadian Archipelago is also breaking loose as can be seen in this post by Wipp:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg50727.html#msg50727
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epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #632 on: April 26, 2015, 11:42:50 PM »
By way of followup to yesterdays post on the recent fast ice detachment/transport off N.E. Greenland - I put together a graphic which may help illustrate the quite dramatic comparison with 2014. The last few days are quite hard to follow due to cloud cover... but the open areas provide good enough references to follow the general drift...

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #633 on: April 27, 2015, 03:01:34 AM »
By way of followup to yesterdays post on the recent fast ice detachment/transport off N.E. Greenland - I put together a graphic which may help illustrate the quite dramatic comparison with 2014. The last few days are quite hard to follow due to cloud cover... but the open areas provide good enough references to follow the general drift...
Nicely done, epiphyte!
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #634 on: April 27, 2015, 03:27:58 AM »
Mc'Clure Strait, at the Western end of the Northwest Passage's Northern Route, appears to have reached snow melt onset today on its MODIS image (4/26/2015)

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic

Look *really* close to notice that the snow is darkening (losing reflectivity).

nukefix

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #635 on: April 27, 2015, 09:53:49 AM »

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #636 on: April 27, 2015, 02:04:11 PM »
Updated (and speeded up!) versions of both AMSR2 RGB:



and ASCAT videos:



Note the movement of older ice into the Beaufort and then Chukchi Seas, and also out through the Fram Strait, over the course of the winter. All of which seems to leave the North Pole currently surrounded by younger ice than usual.
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nukefix

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #637 on: April 27, 2015, 05:33:12 PM »
Updated (and speeded up!) versions of both AMSR2 RGB:
Great stuff and now perfect speed IMO, thanks!

Meirion

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #638 on: April 28, 2015, 09:46:02 AM »
Climate Reanalyser forecast looks like Kara Sea will start melting early over next week maybe up to top of Novaya Zemlya. This year there's no multi-year ice between Kara and the Pole although, as ever, all depends on whether it is a warm or cold summer.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #639 on: April 28, 2015, 01:26:46 PM »
Neven,
This is a reply from your last post in "2015 sea ice area and extent data", since it is more on-topic here.

I believe there may be an explanation for lower-than-average temperatures above 80N of latitude beginning May until July. In 21th century years, melting from March to June in peripheric areas generally progresses faster than in 20th century years. This faster peripheric melting absorbs also extra heat that does not reach the core of the Arctic ice cap. In other words, it may lead to colder weather in the core of the Arctic ice cap. Hence the lower temperatures. You can think that this is the opposite phenomenon of what is observed during Fall (higher temperatures than average since freezing releases heat, and there is way more ice to refreeze now than in the nineties).

Also, just to mention that 2013 and 2014 were also extraordinary melting seasons seen from a 30-year perspective. Even when 2013 had the persistent cyclone and 2014 a substantial snow coverage.

Speaking of which, the snow coverage right now in Beaufort may start being substantially lower than last years,

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/irid_data/2013F_thick.png

so that foggy weather due to high pressure may not persist as much as in 2014, at least for Beaufort and Chukchi.

But this is all speculation (only 1 buoy data) :-$. We'll see.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #640 on: April 28, 2015, 03:58:26 PM »
Quote
I believe there may be an explanation for lower-than-average temperatures above 80N of latitude beginning May until July. In 21th century years, melting from March to June in peripheric areas generally progresses faster than in 20th century years. This faster peripheric melting absorbs also extra heat that does not reach the core of the Arctic ice cap.



Have you considered that the 2m air temperature in summer is determined by the temperature of the ice, which is determined by its melting point, which is determined by the salinity of the water that it is in contact with, which is determined by how much mixing is going on, which is determined by how much open water there is?

epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #641 on: April 28, 2015, 05:12:02 PM »
Quote
I believe there may be an explanation for lower-than-average temperatures above 80N of latitude beginning May until July. In 21th century years, melting from March to June in peripheric areas generally progresses faster than in 20th century years. This faster peripheric melting absorbs also extra heat that does not reach the core of the Arctic ice cap.



Have you considered that the 2m air temperature in summer is determined by the temperature of the ice, which is determined by its melting point, which is determined by the salinity of the water that it is in contact with, which is determined by how much mixing is going on, which is determined by how much open water there is?

So the arctic is behaving like a home ice-cream maker? If so, we're in trouble - In my experience those things usually produce something which turns to mush within minutes :(


Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #642 on: April 28, 2015, 05:40:55 PM »
The reason I brought it up in the other thread (thanks for continuing the discussion here, seaicesailor), is that the temperature on the DMI 80N graph is relatively high now, but dipping again. Last year and in 2013 it dipped below average around day 125 (next week) and stayed below average. I'm interested this year, but as seaicesailor points out in the other thread years like 2007, 2011 and 2012 also dipped below the average around day 125 and more or less stayed below it until September.

Still - and I know I'm changing my mind again - those other years stayed closer to the average than 2013 and 2014.

The reason that I'm interested in this graph, which I don't consider that trustworthy, is that I want to get a feel for what happens during Melt Pond May, as this first phase of the melting season is so important for the remainder. Like I wrote on the ASIB the other day:

Quote
One of the main reasons I wanted to attend EGU2015, was to hear more about how they assess the preconditioning that takes place in the transition phase from freezing to melting season. I mean, the amateur community here has got a reasonably good handle on initial conditions when the freezing season ends, and we also know how to interpret weather conditions and what they do to the sea ice once the melting season gets under way for real. But it's impossible for us to get an idea of what happens in between.

(...)

I went to EGU mostly because I was curious and because it's fun, but also to try to learn a bit more about melt ponds and that preconditioning phase of the melting season that plays a big role in the amount of momentum that gets built up towards the second half of the melting season. We absolutely need to get a handle on that if we want to know the range of possibilities for the September average.

So most of what I'll be saying here and on the ASIB in weeks to come will be with this in my mind. And I'm also looking at everything with this in mind, including the DMI 80N temp graph. I think that if this year's trend line stays well below the average like it did in 2013 and 2014, this is a sign of not enough melt ponding for 2015 to do something spectacular and break records. If it more or less hugs the average trend like it did in 2007, 2011 and 2012, anything is still possible.

Mind you, I'm not necessarily talking about the flat line when temps go above freezing (but can't go higher because of the ice). I'm talking about the period preceding it, Melt Pond May and Junction June.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #643 on: April 28, 2015, 05:53:29 PM »
Nice graph comparison, thanks. I more clearly see the difference of 2013/14 with 07 and '12. If the plot showed anomalies itd be easier to spot that difference.
Anyway I really think that a *small* negative anomaly such as in 2012 and 2007 may be due to faster than average melting happening in Beaufort, Chukchi, Kara, and so...
We'll see!


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #644 on: April 28, 2015, 06:00:03 PM »
Anyway I really think that a *small* negative anomaly such as in 2012 and 2007 may be due to faster than average melting happening in Beaufort, Chukchi, Kara, and so...
We'll see!

Well, it's (modelled) temps above 80N, so I don't know how much melting in adjacent zones influence temps. I think that faster melting in those zones and less low temps on the DMI 80N temp graph, both are a sign that the Arctic is warmer overall, meaning there are probably more melt ponds, meaning that momentum is being built up for the remainder of the melting season, meaning record territory could be reached.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #645 on: April 28, 2015, 06:52:16 PM »

Have you considered that the 2m air temperature in summer is determined by the temperature of the ice, which is determined by its melting point, which is determined by the salinity of the water that it is in contact with, which is determined by how much mixing is going on, which is determined by how much open water there is?

No.

So I try to understand your point, open water permits mixing with deeper ocean layers that makes surface water in contact with ice more saline, so the melting point is lower. Then, the air in contact with the melting ice will acquire that lower melting temperature. It really sounds convincing.

In any case, I was talking about small departures. Also before Summer (day 120 to 180 approx).
 

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #646 on: April 28, 2015, 06:55:11 PM »
Anyway I really think that a *small* negative anomaly such as in 2012 and 2007 may be due to faster than average melting happening in Beaufort, Chukchi, Kara, and so...
We'll see!

Well, it's (modelled) temps above 80N, so I don't know how much melting in adjacent zones influence temps. I think that faster melting in those zones and less low temps on the DMI 80N temp graph, both are a sign that the Arctic is warmer overall, meaning there are probably more melt ponds, meaning that momentum is being built up for the remainder of the melting season, meaning record territory could be reached.

I spent considerable time last year documenting how the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge was producing a blocking pattern in the North East Pacific.  This blocking pattern was inducing a negative phase PNA index (see monthly PNA graphic here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.timeseries.gif ) which causes an increase of mid-latitude moisture to be forced into the arctic circle, causing increased cloudiness and lower temperatures.

The blocking pattern is gone now, subsequently, I am expecting a return to 2012 minimum (or below) this year.


http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.msg25740.html#msg25740

As you can see the amount of mid-latitude water vapor moving into the arctic on May 10th was MASSIVE

« Last Edit: April 28, 2015, 07:36:10 PM by jai mitchell »
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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #647 on: April 28, 2015, 09:24:42 PM »
Neven: if you look at both latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts (temps at 850 hpa) there are signs of a cooling of the central parts of the Arctic basin during the next 7-8 days. The cold patch will be located north of Greenland. This may yield a third year in a row as the temps in the Arctic dips at the April/May approaches... Will be very interesting to see if those forecasts remain solid and verifies...

May we see another boring melt season now? Melt season cancelled before it's even started?  :o

//LMV


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #648 on: April 28, 2015, 09:53:43 PM »
Neven: if you look at both latest GFS and ECMWF forecasts (temps at 850 hpa) there are signs of a cooling of the central parts of the Arctic basin during the next 7-8 days. The cold patch will be located north of Greenland. This may yield a third year in a row as the temps in the Arctic dips at the April/May approaches... Will be very interesting to see if those forecasts remain solid and verifies...

May we see another boring melt season now? Melt season cancelled before it's even started?  :o

//LMV

I dont think so. If the loss of summer ice depended on the inflow of  colder than normal air over central Arctic north of Greenland in May, per se, then 2007, 2010, 2011 and 2012 would have never happened.

Low snow cover, including that on top of ice, warm spells in North America, insolation, dipole anomaly w inflow of warm Pacific that may happen this year, all these, effects of increasing AGW on weather is to be watched.

The core over Greenland is not in danger. The MYI in Beaufort and Chukchi are in the perfect place to disappear or almost disappear as in 2010 if conditions are conductive, and another huge mass already leaving thru Fram.

Will 2015 be another 2010 even 2011? The five year cycle of Viddaloo was not supported by any evidence apart from some weak cyclical variation of ice loss in the stats, but if all that ice outside the properly speaking ice cap melts out this year, Id start thinking more seriously about it

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #649 on: April 29, 2015, 02:58:04 AM »

Have you considered that the 2m air temperature in summer is determined by the temperature of the ice, which is determined by its melting point, which is determined by the salinity of the water that it is in contact with, which is determined by how much mixing is going on, which is determined by how much open water there is?

No.

So I try to understand your point, open water permits mixing with deeper ocean layers that makes surface water in contact with ice more saline, so the melting point is lower. Then, the air in contact with the melting ice will acquire that lower melting temperature. It really sounds convincing.


It does seem to make some kind of sense to me - especially if Vergent is talking about the year before, when there was open water appearing all over the place just before the refreeze. If mixing with lower levels was occurring at that point (or even if it wasn't, to some extent,  then the surface open water freezes into high salinity ice. So come spring, when the ice melts it will result in below-zero temps - just as it took below-zero temps to freeze it the previous winter.

Also, my comment about the ice-cream maker wasn't entirely a joke These work by adding salt to a mixture of freshwater ice and water, which causes the ice to melt, lowering the temperature of the mixture to -2 degrees, which causes the ice-cream mixture sitting in the middle of the thing to freeze.

...Come to think of it, that might keep any nearby fresh-water ice - e.g. snow (!) from melting into ponds. which might in turn slow down the overall melt later on...

...Or not. Possibly depending on a whole bunch of other heretofore unconsidered factors which have never been significant before, but under certain circumstances may be critical now.

If there's a salient point to be made, I'd say that this kind of thing just reinforces the oft-made point than as we get closer to the endgame, things become a lot harder to predict, because the old rules don't always work anymore.