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AbruptSLR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #750 on: May 12, 2015, 08:15:57 PM »
Mean while, it looks like the Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara get crushed over the next few days.

Looking out 141 hours, which by consensus here seems to be close to the edge of the reliable predictive envelope, temperatures well above freezing over large stretches of ice.  Looking at the anomaly map, possibly more relevant, serious heat in the drainages leading to the peripheral seas in question.

The snap shots posted are pretty typical of what GFS thinks we'll be seeing over the next five days.

The linked article by Robert Scribbler elaborates on the same conclusions that you make:

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #751 on: May 12, 2015, 08:43:23 PM »
Mean while, it looks like the Beaufort, Chukchi and Kara get crushed over the next few days.

Looking out 141 hours, which by consensus here seems to be close to the edge of the reliable predictive envelope, temperatures well above freezing over large stretches of ice.  Looking at the anomaly map, possibly more relevant, serious heat in the drainages leading to the peripheral seas in question.

The snap shots posted are pretty typical of what GFS thinks we'll be seeing over the next five days.

The linked article by Robert Scribbler elaborates on the same conclusions that you make:

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/
Bully!  Rather gratifying to see ones conclusions reached independently by an expert...
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #752 on: May 13, 2015, 01:01:27 AM »
Temperatures along the Mackenzie River thus far today:

Fort Simpson, 27°C
Norman Wells, 14°C
Inuvik, 10°C
Tuktoyaktuk, 3°C

The Mackenzie River flow at Arctic Red River is up to almost 13,000 m3/s
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #753 on: May 13, 2015, 02:32:43 AM »
Temperatures along the Mackenzie River thus far today:

Fort Simpson, 27°C
Norman Wells, 14°C
Inuvik, 10°C
Tuktoyaktuk, 3°C

The Mackenzie River flow at Arctic Red River is up to almost 13,000 m3/s

Do you know the average flow?

The snow field has collapsed.  It will vanish the next 3 days then the big torching starts.

Modeled Highs for Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk range from 15-25C this weekend through next week.

With many Southerly wind days.

But also mostly sunny conditions.

Near 400w/m2 a day with Southerly flow and record level WAA.

Its clear the Mackenzie in 7-10 days will be pumping likely record warm fresh water into the arctic ocean.

If this pattern lasts into June we are talking 70s and 80s over NW Canada.

The Mackenzie should easily be pumping 10-15C water by June.

This is setting the stage for 20C+ SST at the mouth of the Delta. 

70F water going into the Arctic is nuts.

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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #754 on: May 13, 2015, 02:50:34 AM »
In fact sat SSTs show an area of O-2C SSTs.

This is verified by bouy/ship or mooring data on EC that show 1C and 2C.

So we have not only reached the point where ice isn't forming there.  Heat is collecting in the water.




That leaves me with no doubt an explosion of warmth in the waters there will take place before May 20th if the models are right.
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Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #755 on: May 13, 2015, 04:02:03 AM »
The current Beaufort melt is already roughly a month ahead of most post-2007 years.  It is about a week ahead of 2008 and 2012.  Both these years had big finishes, as melt from the Laptev and Beaufort eventually progressed far enough to pinch off the thicker arm of ice towards Siberia.

I divide the Arctic into three regions.  Pacific, Atlantic and Core.  The Pacific area (Bering + Okhotsk) has had very low ice and dominates early season.   Melt here is basically finished and we are moving into the time of year that the Atlantic section (Hudson, Baffin, Greenland, Bering, Kara) dominates.  The current heat is mostly affecting the core area (Central, Beaufort, Chukchi, ESS, Laptev).  I don't think enough ice can melt in the next week or two to make a noticeable impact in the totals, and suspect we may actually fall behind other recent years slightly.  Maybe if the current conditions have an extreme enough effect we could see the May version of the June cliff for area which would be rather disturbing.  Regardless this is the strongest possible start for melt in the core area and if this continues later season melt will be extreme.

The loss of volume early in 2010 was massive, with a 4k drop in anomaly in about a month.  Another 5k drop by September was required to get to ice free, but the later part of the season saw weather slam on the breaks.  And recent history suggests that large drops in volume anomaly late in the season don't really happen.  But if we saw strong melt conditions continue throughout the entire melt season could we see close to zero ice at the end?  Is this the year we find out?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #756 on: May 13, 2015, 05:09:04 AM »

This is a possible extreme event.


The average end of snow cover in far NW Canada is the first week of June.

Percentage wise 50% historical snow cover doesnt  happen until around June 10th.

With snow cover lasting until June 20th a few years.


The average breakup dates for the Northern half of the MacKenzie river are May 25th to June 5th.

For the Delta plain the first week of June.

Ice free dates June 5th to 15th.


The part that really grabs attention is the modeled lows on day 6 on being in the low 50s over the DTA region.

Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s abd lows in the low 50s at the mouth of the arctic basin in the middle of May is huge.


This side of the Summer sun is normally going into snow and ice melt through May.

Not only within 3-4 days will the delta plain be near ice free there won't be any snow left.


Albedo goes from .55-.80 over snow covered land to .20 or so over green forests and grasslands.

Over the lakes, rivers, Delta and arctic ocean it drops to 0.08 roughly.


Solar insolation is about 410w/m2.

A week from now about 450w/m2.


We are talking about a potential regional extra uptake of insolation by the ground/water the next three to four weeks of 8000-10000 w/m2.


Of course it won't be that much.

But with ice and snow that drops to 1500-4000 w/m2.

And whatIs is absorbed goes to melting not warming the ground water and air.


Gonna be fun to track

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #757 on: May 13, 2015, 08:42:17 AM »
9 days of 8-10C average temps along the Mackenzie delta.

That's 12-14C above normal.  That is a hell of a long time to be pulling huge anomalies






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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #758 on: May 13, 2015, 08:42:48 AM »
By now it is clear for me that albedo feedback is kicking in early, and at a moment when the 80+ DMI indicator shows very cold temps in Arctic core. This ice core must be very cold now and well protected. So I wonder how this will affect melt later on. Will North winds be colder than usual and slow down melt progress? Early end of melting season? Or maybe support of resilient high pressures over Greenland and so supporting melt and transport further into the Summer? No idea . . .

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #759 on: May 13, 2015, 08:49:50 AM »
Its only May 13th.


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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #760 on: May 13, 2015, 10:07:09 AM »
Do you know the average flow?

I'm not sure that's very meaningful at this particular point in time? Here's the full length Mackenzie breakup video:



and here's the updated flow chart:
« Last Edit: May 13, 2015, 01:16:25 PM by Jim Hunt »
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #761 on: May 13, 2015, 12:07:50 PM »
By now it is clear for me that albedo feedback is kicking in early, and at a moment when the 80+ DMI indicator shows very cold temps in Arctic core. This ice core must be very cold now and well protected. So I wonder how this will affect melt later on. Will North winds be colder than usual and slow down melt progress? Early end of melting season? Or maybe support of resilient high pressures over Greenland and so supporting melt and transport further into the Summer? No idea . . .

It is only May 13th.
To start with, there is an interesting prediction for May 17th

1. The cold air "bag" over the central Arctic is about to be displaced toward ESS-Laptev. 80+ mean temp will increase. And cold Northerlies over Eurasia mean delay of melt of Siberia snow and sea ice. (see upper graph)

2 This cold air displacement will be carried out by an array of low pressure systems at Eurasian side of Arctic. Might these storms be caused by such big difference of temps we observe now? (see lower graph)

3 High pressure over Greenland on the other hand will increase.

4 As a consequence of 2 and 3, this Arctic-wide dipole pattern  will generate a vigorous flow of warm air from the Pacific. (see both graphs)

What happens after May 17 not clear but this is going to be very interesting.




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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #762 on: May 13, 2015, 12:38:05 PM »
Yesterday's long range discussion from the Alaskan desk.  Perhaps the "ridiculously resilient ridge" has migrated north for this winter? 

(Bolded for emphasis)
Quote
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
106 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2015

VALID 12Z SAT MAY 16 2015 - 12Z WED MAY 20 2015


THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A BREAKDOWN IN THE BLOCKING PATTERN
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER HIGH IS PARKED NEAR THE
YUKON,
WITH OPEN, CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE ALEUTIANS TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE MOST RECENT OPERATIONAL RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF BROKE CONTINUITY WITH THE HANDLING OF INDIVIDUAL
SHORTWAVES ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN PAST DAY 4,
SO RELIED ON THE 00Z/12 NAEFS MEAN AS A SYNOPTIC GUIDE. THAT MEAN
ALLOWED FOR A WAVE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS NEXT
MONDAY AND INTO THE PENINSULA NEXT TUESDAY--AS PER COORDINATION
YESTERDAY WITH WFO ANCHORAGE. IN GENERAL, THE BERING SEA SHOULD BE
THE GRAVEYARD FOR EDDIES THAT WERE ONCE THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOWS
OF THE CYCLONES CHURNING ASTRIDE THE ALEUTIANS. DOWNSTREAM, THE
BIG SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES CONTINUES, WITH PRECIOUS LITTLE ENERGY
OR MOISTURE MAKING IT EAST OF 140W INTO THE PANHANDLE.


CISCO
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdak

Attached is the 8-10 day mean 500mb geopotential height anomalies from the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC.  Pretty good agreement that the Yukon anticyclone persists.  Courtesy of e-WALL.  On a side note, the ECMWF saw some upgrades starting with yesterday's 12z runs.
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #763 on: May 13, 2015, 01:32:44 PM »
Both the GFS and Euro
Ensemble means show the full banana high dipole forming during days 8-10.  Don't get it wrong tho. 

The Beaufort and Chuchki get spanked well before that.

If this transitions to a dipole with that kind of persistent warmth being advected into the Chuchki and Beaufort not only will it be probably historic amounts of open water but also how warm the open water will get.

But extent and area with the cyclonic flow like that will surely run at record lows into June.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #764 on: May 13, 2015, 01:47:43 PM »
Forecast temperatures along the Mackenzie River:

                     Today      Sunday
Fort Simpson   26°C          19°C
Norman Wells  15°C          21°C
Inuvik             11°C          22°C
Tuktoyaktuk      9°C          13°C (-9°C Thursday night though)
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #765 on: May 13, 2015, 03:43:51 PM »
Snow melt has begun at one buoy near the Northern coast of Alaska...

http://imb.erdc.dren.mil/irid_data/2015A_thick.png (look closely at the snow depth at the end of the time series)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #766 on: May 13, 2015, 04:01:51 PM »
Alternatively look closely at the webcam!

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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #767 on: May 13, 2015, 04:31:00 PM »
Alternatively look closely at the webcam

lol
I don't know what I should be seeing. Is melting apparent from that image? (just a noob question)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #768 on: May 13, 2015, 06:20:19 PM »
Both the GFS and Euro
Ensemble means show the full banana high dipole forming during days 8-10.  Don't get it wrong tho. 

The Beaufort and Chuchki get spanked well before that.

If this transitions to a dipole with that kind of persistent warmth being advected into the Chuchki and Beaufort not only will it be probably historic amounts of open water but also how warm the open water will get.

But extent and area with the cyclonic flow like that will surely run at record lows into June.
Worth mentioning, the Bering and Okhotsk will disintegrate totally in the heat as well, quite a bit early.  The effect of this on wildlife will be serious.  It will also result in a huge increase in heat uptake, with probable cascading effects on local weather and further north.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #769 on: May 13, 2015, 08:54:36 PM »
The latest eastern Beaufort ice stage of development chart, for the week ending May 11th:

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #770 on: May 13, 2015, 09:02:41 PM »
Another observation, just a difference between last year and this year.  If you look at the MODIS satellite images from yesterday and a year ago, you will notice that Northern Alaska is well greened up, clearly into a green and growing spring, whereas a year ago that same areas were still very brown. 
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #771 on: May 14, 2015, 11:06:28 AM »
The 00z models just destroy the Beaufort region
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #772 on: May 14, 2015, 12:44:43 PM »
Some 30 day temperature time series for northern Canada.

West to east
Inuvik, N.W.T.
Copper mine, N.W.T.
Cambridge Bay, N.W.T.
Resolute Bay, N.W.T.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/ncanada_30temp.shtml
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #773 on: May 14, 2015, 03:49:23 PM »
Barrow sea ice seems to have started bottom melt even before the snow has started to melt from above.  I don't think this is normal, and the starting thickness is considerably thinner than usual.

http://amaru.gina.alaska.edu/data/graph/mbs_barrow/BRW_MBS.jpg?graph=Season-to-date

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #774 on: May 14, 2015, 04:10:29 PM »
Barrow sea ice seems to have started bottom melt

Unless my eyes deceive me (entirely possible!) bottom melt started slightly earlier last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2014-imbs/#SIZONet

The initial breakup of (most of) the fast ice at Barrow was in April last year though!
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #775 on: May 14, 2015, 06:26:35 PM »
Barrow sea ice seems to have started bottom melt

Unless my eyes deceive me (entirely possible!) bottom melt started slightly earlier last year:

Yes, but air temperatures were above zero and the snow had started melting back a week or so before.  The puzzling thing about Barrow this year is that the bottom melt looks like it started with air temperatures well below zero and no snow melt yet.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #776 on: May 14, 2015, 06:43:28 PM »
Barrow sea ice seems to have started bottom melt

Unless my eyes deceive me (entirely possible!) bottom melt started slightly earlier last year:

Yes, but air temperatures were above zero and the snow had started melting back a week or so before.  The puzzling thing about Barrow this year is that the bottom melt looks like it started with air temperatures well below zero and no snow melt yet.
Perhaps more movement of ice also includes increased transfer of heat from depth in the water column?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #777 on: May 14, 2015, 11:24:22 PM »
Or perhaps it's ocean heat coming from the North Pacific via the Alaskan Coastal Current and then through Bering Strait?

« Last Edit: May 14, 2015, 11:41:52 PM by Neven »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #778 on: May 14, 2015, 11:34:22 PM »
R05c02 day 141 2011:


R05c02 day 133 2015:


First impression on ice quality day 133. Focusing on a spot that’s been illuminated intensively last days by FI  Jim Hunt, I still choose r05c02, the Beaufort MODIS tile. The last time a large early polynia emerged from the main flaw lead was May 2011. This year, a similar development. Day 133, wide spread melt ponding is appearing. Both on the fast ice and on the dispersed, broken floes further in the Beaufort Sea.
The early 2015 spring warmth has an even stronger impact than during 2011. With an 8-day stretch of heat to go until the day 141 image in my file for ’11, I guess we’ll see the worst end of May situation on record for the Beaufort Sea.
Whatever this melt season will bring, it is my impression that a record warm Pacific ‘background’ will hurt  Arctic Sea Ice during 2015. Whether that will be enough to trigger a new minimum record remains to be seen...

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #779 on: May 15, 2015, 12:14:41 AM »
Or perhaps it's ocean heat coming from the North Pacific via the Alaskan Coastal Current and then through Bering Strait?

This is my favorite theory on this matter, as with increasing sea level rise, more & more warm water will pour into the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific, thus helping to explain the paleo-data that indicate relatively high values for Arctic Amplification.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #780 on: May 15, 2015, 12:37:01 AM »
Focusing on a spot that’s been illuminated intensively last days by FI  Jim Hunt

Which reminds me that I haven't posted this here yet. A Landsat 8 close up of the Mackenzie Delta from yesterday:

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #781 on: May 15, 2015, 12:45:02 AM »
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #782 on: May 15, 2015, 12:52:05 AM »
Thanks for the Landsat-pic, Jim!

It is a detail from what can be seen on the MODIS-tile in large. Snow cover is rapidly being cleared, run-off water is melting out/flowing over extensive parts of the fast-ice. This is going 'with a bang', indeed.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #783 on: May 15, 2015, 02:28:52 AM »
I know that weather is quite variable, but is there any reason to think that the Alaska/NW Territories won't continue to be warmer than average for the bulk of the melting season due to the albedo effect?


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #784 on: May 15, 2015, 03:15:17 AM »
Jim:  looking at that picture, I swear I can almost hear the mosquitos emerging from their slumber.  I have never heard more or louder mosquitos than those on the Mackenzie delta.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #785 on: May 15, 2015, 09:41:14 AM »
Wow the current 7 day forecast looks pretty brutal for the ice across the Beaufort and much of the western pack in general.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #786 on: May 15, 2015, 09:50:40 AM »
A little bit hazy, but here's a picture of some open water and thin ice at the heart of the Beaufort Sea yesterday:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201415-images/#Beaufort

There's also a recent picture from the webcam trained on ice mass balance buoy 2015B, which is also currently bobbing about in the Beaufort.

P.S. On double checking I note that 2015B has actually bobbed across into the Chukchi already, which unfortunately isn't so alliterative
« Last Edit: May 15, 2015, 11:19:53 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #787 on: May 15, 2015, 09:55:11 AM »
I swear I can almost hear the mosquitos emerging from their slumber.

I don't suppose you happen to know off the top of your head the earliest/average date on which those Mackenzie mozzies start buzzing do you?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #788 on: May 15, 2015, 10:01:49 AM »
Idly scanning the length of the Mackenzie on Worldview I note that the fires have started

P.S. A quick Google also reveals this:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/little-bobtail-lake-fire-burning-over-8-000-hectares-1.3073457

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #789 on: May 15, 2015, 10:51:25 AM »


Finally after 3 boring days round two has arrived.

Epicness is about to unfold.

Starting with that vigorously compact HP.

Then transitioning to a methodical torching.

Which eventually turns into a much nastier set up for a larger part of the basin.








Then here is the gfs nine day averages.  Notice the area poised to average 9 days above 0C keeps growing.

That's 9 days in May of essentially wall to wall melt conditions. 

If this was just days 4-10 that area would be pretty much the entire -2c to 0c area.






Both the euro and gfs after today torch the Beaufort, Chuchki, and SW CAA/CAB.

Remember solar insolation is very high.

This is going to be absurd.


Days 4-6 with the HP over the CAA and highs reaching 70F along thd arctic coast with full sun and 15mph Southerly winds???
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #790 on: May 15, 2015, 11:54:48 AM »
Quote
This is going to be absurd.

Days 4-6 with the HP over the CAA and highs reaching 70F along thd arctic coast with full sun and 15mph Southerly winds???

I fully agree. Not just high above-freezing temps, but open skies as well. If this isn't melt pond-induced melting momentum material, I don't know what is.

As the French say: it's going to be fort, and it ain't going to be beau.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #791 on: May 15, 2015, 12:14:44 PM »
As the French say: it's going to be fort, and it ain't going to be beau.

It is rather looking that way at the moment. Much more detail at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/beaufort-sea-ice-graphs/#Hamburg-AMSR2
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #792 on: May 15, 2015, 12:21:55 PM »
yes very impressive break up !

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #793 on: May 15, 2015, 12:36:40 PM »
From the Alaska ice desk, apologies that it's from Wednesday.  It updates on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.

Quote
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...WINDS ALONG THE ICE
EDGE WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AGAIN
ON MONDAY. THE OVERALL ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP
AND MELTING OUT FOR THE SEASON. THE ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
30 TO 45 NM TO THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY.

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #794 on: May 15, 2015, 12:38:20 PM »
In my line of work, nm stands for nanometres, so these bulletins always amuse me >.<

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #795 on: May 15, 2015, 02:22:16 PM »
Quote
This is going to be absurd.

Days 4-6 with the HP over the CAA and highs reaching 70F along thd arctic coast with full sun and 15mph Southerly winds???

I fully agree. Not just high above-freezing temps, but open skies as well. If this isn't melt pond-induced melting momentum material, I don't know what is.

As the French say: it's going to be fort, and it ain't going to be beau.


Daily insolation is already way high.

Today is s transition day where winds the next 48 hours will vanish most of the snow left but also open up the Pollyanna a lot right in time for a straight endless record breaking torch.

Southerly winds and 60s and 70,s blowing into the Beaufort and Chuchki day after day is absurd.

Throw in the sun.

I can't see how ice melt isn't extreme.

Also the general flow will continually push the ice away from NA.  Without a cyclonic HP over the cab there is no ice coming West.

The open water area will just grow.

And become incredibly warm

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a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
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and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #796 on: May 15, 2015, 02:36:14 PM »
The latest Mackenzie River flow chart. Note that data for the 15th only goes up to 2 AM currently:

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #797 on: May 15, 2015, 03:22:41 PM »
I wonder, how does warmer than usual open water affect weather systems on the short run? Because it must when there is a massive area of open ocean that should not be there. Does it help maintain positive feedback conditions or doesnt it?

Perhaps I should place this in "stupid questions" although not stupid at all.

Melt pond evolution on the other hand seems slave to what weather dictates (except that it helps melting the ice on the long run).

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #798 on: May 15, 2015, 04:11:30 PM »
We have just seen the biggest  one day  rise(73 K km^2), followed by the biggest one day decline (200K km^2) in NSIDC extent over the past ten tears.  This suggests to  me that the extent figures are dominated by  wind flows more than temperature declines and increases at this time of the year.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #799 on: May 15, 2015, 05:03:20 PM »
We have just seen the biggest  one day  rise(73 K km^2), followed by the biggest one day decline (200K km^2) in NSIDC extent over the past ten tears.  This suggests to  me that the extent figures are dominated by  wind flows more than temperature declines and increases at this time of the year.

Might have been that brief Beaufort rebound followed by that Beaufort hole that is apparent today