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Wipneus

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #800 on: May 15, 2015, 05:17:54 PM »
We have just seen the biggest  one day  rise(73 K km^2), followed by the biggest one day decline (200K km^2) in NSIDC extent over the past ten tears.  This suggests to  me that the extent figures are dominated by  wind flows more than temperature declines and increases at this time of the year.

Well this is NSIDC Sea Ice index, which does have a lot of day-to-day variance due to false coastal ice. Yesterday there was a +35k and today a -52k, of "other" ice, mostly in the Baltic, some in the Japanese Sea.
Another reason for large swings in extent are large areas of ice at concentrations close to 15%. This seems to be the case for the remaining ice fields in the Bering and Okhotsk regions.

Both yesterday and today, the Beaufort changed almost nothing (~ -1k).

Attached, today's NSIDC change map.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #801 on: May 15, 2015, 05:26:07 PM »
This is going to be absurd.

Days 4-6 with the HP over the CAA and highs reaching 70F along thd arctic coast with full sun and 15mph Southerly winds???

I fully agree. Not just high above-freezing temps, but open skies as well. If this isn't melt pond-induced melting momentum material, I don't know what is.

As the French say: it's going to be fort, and it ain't going to be beau.

Quick thumbnail sketch, assuming the 400-ish Watts/M2, scatter, uptake by other sinks like the ocean, re-radiation, albedo and evaporation, these conditions could *still* tear 5-10CM of ice/day off of the top of the pack in the Beaufort and Chukchi.  I recon that could put a lot of ice into conditions we wouldn't normally expect until July.

I think I'm being pretty conservative (using .8 as my albedo...).

Also, heat not applied to ice and distributed via uptake to the ocean or evaporation doesn't leave; it will be lurking around to pounce later.

Exciting, but No, not Beau at all.
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ghoti

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #802 on: May 15, 2015, 05:50:26 PM »
Melt ponds visibly expanding this week at the port of Churchill as seen from the webcam there.

http://www.portofchurchill.ca/port-media/live-feed


prokaryotes

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #803 on: May 15, 2015, 11:27:24 PM »
I'm not an expert in tracking sea ice, but this here looks very much like 2015 is on track to set a new record


Arctic sea ice extent averaged for April 2015 was the second lowest in the satellite record for the month. Through 2015, the linear rate of decline for April extent is 2.4% per decade.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

an increase in the length of the Arctic summer melting season between 1979 and 1998, also derived from satellite data. The shortest season was 1979 (57 days) and the longest was in 1998 (81 days) with an increasing trend of 5 days per decade (Smith, 1998, updated
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/062.htm

Maybe someone could point out how sea ice evolves typical during El Ninio years?


Made a post

Will a 2015 Arctic sea ice melt season during an El Nino year shatter previous records? http://climatestate.com/2015/05/15/will-a-2015-arctic-sea-ice-melt-season-during-an-el-nino-year-shatter-previous-records/
« Last Edit: May 18, 2015, 01:45:40 AM by prokaryotes »

ael

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #804 on: May 16, 2015, 12:49:54 AM »
I swear I can almost hear the mosquitos emerging from their slumber.

I don't suppose you happen to know off the top of your head the earliest/average date on which those Mackenzie mozzies start buzzing do you?
No, it is very much weather dependent.  Fertilized adult female mosquitoes hibernate over the winter and are able to spring into full biting action as soon as things thaw.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #805 on: May 16, 2015, 05:54:39 AM »

Maybe someone could point out how sea ice evolves typical during El Ninio years?

Will a 2015 Arctic sea ice melt season during an El Nino year shatter previous records? http://climatestate.com/2015/05/15/will-a-2015-arctic-sea-ice-melt-season-during-an-el-nino-year-shatter-previous-records/

This is difficult to answer because the two big El Ninos in the past 35 years have occurred in quite different  circumstances. 1982-3 was affected by the El Chichon volcanic eruption in 1982, lowering global temperatures, while 1997-8 occurred near a solar maximum.

However, 1984 and 1999 both saw record minimums in extent so there does seem to be an impact the following year.  In line with another line of thought that  it takes three warm years to  acheive a record low. 2015 would only  be the second warm year as 2013 was relatively  cold.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #806 on: May 16, 2015, 06:41:27 AM »
I'm not sure those years had GFS forcasts like this (5 days out...)

Nothing below freezing outside the basin in the Pacific.

Temperatures along the North American coast, over the water, of almost 10C

Temperatures above freezing extending almost to 90N.

Above Zero in the Kara, Fram gap and lots of other places.

Are we sure it isn't July?
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #807 on: May 16, 2015, 06:50:37 AM »
Actually, this may be the more telling picture.

7 days out, note the lack of snow cover from the ESS all the way to the CAA across the Chukchi and Beaufort, probably upto close to 85N at its highest.

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #808 on: May 16, 2015, 10:25:06 AM »
The sun is beating down on the landfast ice near Prudhoe Bay. This is ice mass balance buoy 2014A, plus its current temperature profiles.

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201415-images/#IMB2015A

This is of interest to Wayne Davidson, but I don't know about anybody else! The CRREL tell me:

The top temperature sensors are indeed heating up from the sun.  If you look at it closely - you can see that they track the air temp, very well most of the time.  These readings are every 4 hours.  And if you look closely you can see that each day, the 20:00, 0:00 and 04:00  readings are always higher than air temperature and also would correspond to when the sun is beating down on that side of the buoy. I also am surprised that they are heating up that much. They are mounted inside the slotted white pipe for solar shielding and to allow air flow, and I would not have expected the temps to be that elevated...

This is the result of the sun heating up the slotted pipe that we hide the temperature sensors in to protect them from foxes chewing the cable, the wind from snow-blasting the cable during high winds - the snow would eat away at the cables..... Therefore the surface temperatures are installed in a "Well screen" - a slotted pipe that allows the air to infiltrate to the sensors, but prevents animals etc. from gaining access to chew on them (Has happened in the past and this was our solution).
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Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #809 on: May 16, 2015, 11:49:58 AM »
Are we sure it isn't July?




This is crazy.

I really can't wait to see how it's going to turn out. I feel really ghoulish saying it but wow, it's pretty exciting.

JayW

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #810 on: May 16, 2015, 12:17:41 PM »
Alaska ice desk
FZAK80 PAFC 152302
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT FRIDAY 15 MAY 2015

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY 20 MAY 2015

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH
                     
SYNOPSIS...A LARGE LOW NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN AS ANOTHER LOW MOVES
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
 
-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE ALASKA COAST NEAR 59.8N 163.7W TO
62.7N 166.3W TO 61N 166.7W TO 60.2N 165.6W TO 58.9N 172.8W TO 60.5N
177.4W TO 63N 169.9W TO 63.9N 172W TO 64.6N 169.7W TO 65.2N 171W TO
64.2N 173W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. THE ICE EDGE IS
MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...WINDS OVER THE ICE
PACK WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME EASTERLY AS THE NEXT LOW
MOVES BY TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE OVERALL ICE PACK
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BREAKING UP AND MELTING OUT FOR THE SEASON.
THE ICE PACK IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT 35 TO 50 NM TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 
$$

http://pafc.arh.noaa.gov/marfcst.php?fcst=FZAK80PAFC

Alaska extended discussion (Bolded for emphasis)  Two points, we saw Supertyphoon Nuol recurve and help pump up the blocking ridge, and now "Dolphin" is recurving.  Could "re-pump" the ridge.
Second, for what it's worth, NWS basically threw out the 15/0z GFS run for the Alaska region.  And a third general point, models tend to break down blocking too quickly.  This past winter taught me the importance of respecting persistence.
ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

VALID 12Z TUE MAY 19 2015 - 12Z SAT MAY 23 2015

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BE THE ANCHORING FEATURE OF THIS
MEDIUM RANGE PATTERN IN ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. WHAT ENERGY CAN
BECOME INCORPORATED INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOMINALLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND TO THE WEST COAST OF
ALASKA. BY DAY 7...THE RIDGE REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE---AND
EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS OF 'DOLPHIN' BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE 15/00Z GFS/GEFS POORLY-INITIALIZED THE
SYSTEM AND COULD NOT BE UTILIZED TODAY---OPTING TO GO WITH A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 15/00Z ECENS/NAEFS FOR THE PERIOD
. DID SEE
SOME UTILITY IN USING THE 15/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THROUGH SOME
OF NEXT WEDNESDAY---21/00Z-21/06Z TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE 'ABOVE NORMAL' AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
FOR THE INTERIOR AND PANHANDLE---OUTSIDE OF TERRAIN-BASED
CONVECTION AND MARINE-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND
NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR.

VOJTESAK

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdak

First attachment is the past 30 days 500mb geopotential height anomalies 5 day running mean
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

Second attachment is the 16/0z H5 geopotential height anomalies days 8-10 from ECMWF/GFS/CMC
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #811 on: May 16, 2015, 02:40:04 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #812 on: May 16, 2015, 02:53:02 PM »
Paulatuk, CA high temperatures Sunday through Wednesday:  15C to 22C.

That should loosen things up a bit....

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plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #813 on: May 16, 2015, 04:37:59 PM »
Well, if this is true:
http://amaru.gina.alaska.edu/data/graph/mbs_barrow/BRW_MBS.jpg?graph=Season-to-date

Then the fast ice at least near Barrow has only one meter (due to the large snow cover on top?). I also do not fully understand the bottom melt so far - warm water connected to the nearby polynya?

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #814 on: May 16, 2015, 07:03:58 PM »
Nice animation, Siffy;  My skills are not up to that level. (Sidebar - PM me if you would to let me know how you put it together - or post in one of the tech threads here)

Looking at the clouds and precipitation maps reveals something even more alarming than the temperature - rain, persistent, deep in the pack over the Chukchi and Beaufort.

Following the clouds, you can also clearly see the remnants of the Pacific cyclones rolling up the Asian coast, crashing into the ridge off of Alaska and having significant fractions  of their heat and moisture shunted through the Bering into the Arctic basin proper.

This look like an unprecedented assault by modern reckoning.  Sample shot for next Friday attached for illustration.

(Edit: added image for temps on the 23rd - forecast has it above zero well north of 85 degrees, within spitting distance of the pole.  Barneo will probably have to clear out early this year.)

« Last Edit: May 16, 2015, 07:27:26 PM by jdallen »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #815 on: May 16, 2015, 08:00:17 PM »
Nice animation, Siffy;  My skills are not up to that level. (Sidebar - PM me if you would to let me know how you put it together - or post in one of the tech threads here)

Dunno about Siffy, but I use ImageMagick to automate the process of producing animated GIFs. Could open a thread in the Developers Corner?
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #816 on: May 16, 2015, 08:51:54 PM »
Nice animation, Siffy;  My skills are not up to that level. (Sidebar - PM me if you would to let me know how you put it together - or post in one of the tech threads here)

Dunno about Siffy, but I use ImageMagick to automate the process of producing animated GIFs. Could open a thread in the Developers Corner?
Please do.  There are other places I would like to post stuff like that aside from here.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #817 on: May 16, 2015, 09:06:54 PM »
EOSDIS-Worldview capture, showing the Chukchi centered about 72N, 166W

The pack is granulating.  To the upper left there is a cloud-edge shadow, but somewhat past that appears to be the edge of open water filling the approaches to the Bering Strait.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #818 on: May 16, 2015, 09:07:26 PM »
Please do.  There are other places I would like to post stuff like that aside from here.


Here you go JD: Creating Animated GIFs

I'll add some links when I have a spare 5 minutes.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #819 on: May 16, 2015, 09:15:56 PM »
Wrangel Island/ESS detail, showing similar granulation and break up of fast ice across the ESS.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #820 on: May 16, 2015, 09:22:43 PM »
Kara/Barents detail, 2015 May 15.  Image suggests things are a bit more worse off than implied by extent maps - lots of interstitial open water were thin ice has disappeared or disintegrated into slush, little in the way large-scale floes.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #821 on: May 16, 2015, 09:30:50 PM »
Northern Hudson detail - appears to show a huge lead, extensive melt ponding, and extremely weak state of most of the remaining ice.

I'll stop here, but just wanted to survey some of the areas about to get smashed by heat so we have a base to consider when we look again in a week.  My sense is generally, the ice is in in pretty poor shape to start with for this time of the season, in ways that are not evident looking at some of the tools we commonly use to look at extent and area.  Even absent  the coming weather, it would be at considerable peril as the season advances, more than was typical pre-2012.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #822 on: May 17, 2015, 01:44:51 AM »
Of course lance MODIS stops updating right before the Beaufort.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #823 on: May 17, 2015, 01:58:32 AM »


If that area of 2-4C pans out before June we might have open water from the Admundsen Gulf? To Chuchki/Bering.
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #824 on: May 17, 2015, 05:18:10 AM »
If this pans out and continues as some models are suggesting, in a couple of months, Wadhams May be saying "I told you so" to all of us.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #825 on: May 17, 2015, 05:37:46 AM »
I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #826 on: May 17, 2015, 06:46:15 AM »
<snippage>
Same location, one month later, 2013, 2014.
<edit>  Added 2012, May 17, complete, as snapshot won't work.  My anecdotal assessment is, Same area (Amundsen Gulf) has somewhat less open water and better ice, than it does currently.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2015, 06:53:42 AM by jdallen »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #827 on: May 17, 2015, 08:28:13 AM »
The 00z gfs smokes the Beaufort region.


Its incredible
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #828 on: May 17, 2015, 09:18:19 AM »
The 00z euro is wayyyyyyyyy worse.


« Last Edit: May 17, 2015, 09:57:36 AM by Frivolousz21 »
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #829 on: May 17, 2015, 02:13:02 PM »
I still wonder at the impacts of warm waters entering , via the Alaskan current, the Pacific side of the Basin from the 'blob' ( reinforced by last years mammoth KW and ,later, this years nino pulses of warm waters)? Current diagrams show a portion of those waters running into the C.A. and out via Baffin. some of this water also runs along the north shore of the C.A.

Will we see our 'good ice' under attack from below throughout the season and not just the bottom melt end of the season?
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #830 on: May 17, 2015, 08:47:01 PM »
Landsat 8 from yesterday. The heart of the Beaufort Sea. Better resolution available on request!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201415-images/#Beaufort
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #831 on: May 17, 2015, 11:05:01 PM »
Ah... MODIS reveals, the rest of fast ice in Amundsen Gulf is breaking loose!

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #832 on: May 18, 2015, 12:35:34 AM »
Landsat 8 from yesterday. The heart of the Beaufort Sea. Better resolution available on request.

That looks like a broken heart to me, Jim. Sniff.  ;)
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #833 on: May 18, 2015, 03:30:35 AM »
From the Alaska long range desk.

ALASKA EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015

VALID 12Z THU MAY 21 2015 - 12Z MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WARM/DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH IT---CONTINUE TO
BE THE MEDIUM RANGE THEME---BUILDING WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TIME. THE HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK IN NORTHWEST CANADA CREATES
A PERSISTENCE FORECAST APPROACH OVER ALASKA...THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THE EAST CENTRAL PACIFIC.

THROUGH THE BETTER PART OF THE DAY 4 THROUGH DAY 7 PERIOD--- VERY
LITTLE CHANGE  IS EXPECTED. NOT UNTIL THE REMNANTS OF 'DOLPHIN'
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE MID-LATITUDE PACIFIC --- WILL THE FLOW
PATTERN HAVE A CATALYST 'TO CHANGE' IN THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA.

AND THE CURRENT MODEL SOLUTIONS---INCLUDING THOSE UTILIZED TODAY
TO GENERATE THE SURFACE/500MB GRAPHICS AND GRIDDED DATA
FIELDS---INDICATE THAT THE INFUSION OF POST-TROPICAL MOISTURE AND
ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
GENERATE AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS--- BUT ALSO WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASE THE WARMTH BENEATH IT.

THE MODEL CHOICES TODAY---THE 17/00Z EC ENSEMBLE
MEANS/DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND 17/06Z GEFS --- GENERATED A FEW MORE
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S (OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
INTERIOR) AND SLOWLY IS EXPANDING THE WARMTH --- WESTWARD AND
NORTHWESTWARD.

VOJTESAK

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Tensor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #834 on: May 18, 2015, 04:16:28 AM »
Lower 80s???? That's almost as warm as it will be here in Florida, just south of Tampa Bay.  Were due for the mid to upper 80s.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #835 on: May 18, 2015, 04:46:45 AM »

Four days ago versus today





Here is albedo change from two days ago versus today



I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

jai mitchell

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #836 on: May 18, 2015, 04:49:07 AM »
Aklavik, northern territory canada is set to stay warm (highs in mid 20s, lows above freezing and as high as 13C!)

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-13_metric_e.html
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+3C today

Wipneus

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #837 on: May 18, 2015, 08:14:16 AM »
Meanwhile ice north of Greenland is hurrying to the main exit.

(give it a click)

Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #838 on: May 18, 2015, 10:58:55 AM »


I don't suppose this forecast will stand the test of the next few days but the whole basin is getting smoked in this.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #839 on: May 18, 2015, 11:41:12 AM »
Meanwhile ice north of Greenland is hurrying to the main exit.

ITP59/O-Buoy 9 have just started motoring again after a brief hiatus:
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JayW

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #840 on: May 18, 2015, 12:04:28 PM »


I don't suppose this forecast will stand the test of the next few days but the whole basin is getting smoked in this.


Normally I'd agree Siffy, I tend to be wary of forecasts more than 100 hours out, but in this circumstance I'm inclined to buy it.  That ridge is stout, perhaps the remnants of dolphin could set it in motion, or "knock it down" but I'm skeptical.  I expect the remnants to split, some heads into the Bering sea, the rest heads to California and reinforce the southwest US trough that's attempting a "May miracle" for California.  Persistence.

Northern Alaska discussion.  Hope folks don't mind me posting these, they can be technical at times, but they are the pros, and I look to them for guidance.  Fires could be a problem real quick...
Bolded for emphasis.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
103 AM AKDT MON MAY 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS
ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
SLIGHTLY RETREAT EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW NUDGES THE
RIDGE IN THAT DIRECTION AS IT MOVES UP THE WEST COAST AND OVER
THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE WILL PUSH BACK WESTWARD AND THE
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLYAT
LOWER LEVELS. THE HEIGHTS AT 500 WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY HOT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF NORTHERN ALASKA FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH NO REPRIEVE IN SIGHT
DURING THIS WEEK.


INTERIOR...VERY HOT AND EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE INTERIOR. THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE WELL SET UP THROUGH
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK HOWEVER THERE WILL BE NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PROVIDE ANY DYNAMICS.

ARCTIC COAST...FOR THE MOST PART...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ARCTIC COAST. IT WILL PROVIDE
PARALLEL FLOW TO THE COAST WITH A HINT OF OFFSHORE. A SURFACE
HIGH WILL SET UP OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
ON TUE EVENING AND THEN SLIDE EAST AND BUILD THROUGH WED. A STRONG
THERMAL TROUGH WILL SET UP BY THU ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND
ARCTIC SLOPE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS TO A MOSTLY OFFSHORE
COMPONENT...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.

WEST COAST...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WITH THE
PLETHORA OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES MOVING NORTH ON THE WEST
COAST THIS WEEK. WINDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT OVER MOST AREAS THIS
WEEK.

NO REAL STRONG DEFINED AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS DEPICTED IN THE 500H
FIELD WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF SOME WEAKER VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WEAK SHORT WAVES.

WEAK Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE AREAS SHOWS
NOTHING THAT CAN BE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF ANY DYNAMICS TO SET
OFF EVEN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THE INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP NEARLY ALL
OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE INTERIOR WITH DESPERATELY LOW RH
VALUES. RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15% WILL BE THE NORM FOR THE WEEK.



&&
.HYDROLOGY...RAPID SNOW MELT AND AND BREAK UP WILL CREATE HIGH
WATER CONDITIONS FOR SOME AREA RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR
AS
DEPICTED IN THE WATCHES WHICH ARE FOR THE PORCUPINE RIVER AND THE
WARNING FOR THE YUKON RIVER ON THE YK DELTA FOR ALAKANUK AND
EMMONAK.


&&

http://www.arh.noaa.gov/wmofcst.php?wmo=FXAK69PAFG&type=public

Lower 80s???? That's almost as warm as it will be here in Florida, just south of Tampa Bay.  Were due for the mid to upper 80s.

And it's only mid May.

Meanwhile, it's snowing in parts of the northern high plains/Midwest, wonder where that displaced cold came from?  ;)  I love highly anomalous weather.  If you want to really giggle, take a gander at fantasy land hour 384 in the gfs, basically no sub freezing temps, save Greenland.

First attachment is the 8-10 day 500mb geopotential anomalies from ECMWF/GFS/CMC
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

Second attachment is the 8-14 days NAEFS temp probability. For those unfamiliar the NAEFS are a combination of GFS and CMC ensembles.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2015, 12:39:56 PM by JayW »
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #841 on: May 18, 2015, 04:07:59 PM »
These are the average concentration (2003-14 from Uni Bremen) and the 2015vs average maps for May 15th. Quite some negative anomaly in Kara, Hudson as well as Beaufort obviously, while melting continue to lag behind in Baffin. Laptev is also starting very slow this year, and I recon this trend is set to continue as the heat keeps being directed toward Beaufort and surrounding areas.

Click to enlarge.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #842 on: May 18, 2015, 05:06:43 PM »


I don't suppose this forecast will stand the test of the next few days but the whole basin is getting smoked in this.

Actually, this indicates the forecast has gotten *worse*, as this is much harsher than what I posted a couple of days ago.
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Siffy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #843 on: May 18, 2015, 05:26:20 PM »


I don't suppose this forecast will stand the test of the next few days but the whole basin is getting smoked in this.

Actually, this indicates the forecast has gotten *worse*, as this is much harsher than what I posted a couple of days ago.


What I meant with my comment was I didn't think the 6th/7th day outlook would actually follow the forecast, however after reading JayWs post I'm really not sure what to expect apart from the Beaufort being smoked any way.

This season is going to be a very exciting one, or rather it already is.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #844 on: May 18, 2015, 09:28:16 PM »
While the heat is on in Beaufort the same is certainly not true on the Siberian side.. Did an eyeballing check from wipneus SI maps and my overall impression is that there have been rather small extent drops during the last couple of days. The exception is Bering Sea which is almost ice free now.

If the forecast stands and the warm air continues to enter the American side there is a good possibility that we'll have "open water" from Pacific ocean to the Northwest Territority by the end of this month.

Neven: I think the snow cover have played a huge part to Hudson Bay. If anyone has some time to check the precip anomaly for the winter and especially the months right after Hudson Bay froze over, my bet is that there have been more precip there than normal. Large snow cover is a good isolator to thickening of the ice. Then it doesn't matter if it's -40o or -10o, the thickening is very low.

//LMV

andy_t_roo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #845 on: May 18, 2015, 11:37:06 PM »



This is crazy.

I really can't wait to see how it's going to turn out. I feel really ghoulish saying it but wow, it's pretty exciting.


(Not the most recent forecast, but the less extreme of the last 2 posted to this thread)
Looking at this it feels like the only source of very cold air (-10 or below) is air blown off of Greenland, and that isn't producing enough of a cooling effect to keep up with increased hearing due to decreased albedo. The boys show that the surface of the ice is around -2 c, and with broken I've everywhere the cold air would be having to work directly against the water,  which takes much more effort to freeze them simply cooling the surface of already frozen ice with a -10c core.

Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #846 on: May 19, 2015, 01:08:06 AM »

GFS 9 day forecast versus climo




Its pretty anomalous




I got a nickname for all my guns
a Desert Eagle that I call Big Pun
a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #847 on: May 19, 2015, 01:28:39 AM »
It's anomalously anomalous.  ;)
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #849 on: May 19, 2015, 02:47:45 AM »
Inuvik Airport - Record values
Averages and Extremes for May 18:
Averages and Extremes   Value   Year
Average Maximum Temperature       
Average Minimum Temperature       
Frequency of Precipitation       
Highest Temperature (2006-2013)   16.7°C   2009
Lowest Temperature (2006-2013)   -6.7°C   2013

Current Temp 27C