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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1250 on: June 11, 2015, 08:56:05 AM »
The 00z GFS is warmer as well. 







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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1251 on: June 11, 2015, 09:03:12 AM »
Looking at CC_Reanalyzers temp forecast for the Arctic reveals a somewhat odd feature... Most of the Arctic basin will during the next week see temps above freeze point temps below freeze point will be seen at Laptev Sea and for the first 4 days also in ESS but after that freeze temps will more or less solely be limited to Laptev Sea. This is funny as the ice in the Laptev Sea should be the thinnest one in the Arctic basin...

Warm weather in the rest of the Arctic including the CAB should make us to see a bunch of melt ponds there during the next week.

Due to the stall of the SIE I think it's fair to say that 2010-2012 will be lower than 2015 by the end of the month. Both GFS and ECMWF have trended to more low pressure dominated weather later in the forecast runs which may be a hint of what's going to come...

//LMV

werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1252 on: June 11, 2015, 09:08:24 AM »
Well, I have a CAD compilation for day 168 2013. Michael is right in an opinion that dispersion looked worse then on r03c04/r04c04 (The Sib side of the Central Arctic Basin (CAB)). It was the start of a period in which any structure out there broke up into loose floes. That looked very alarming at the time.
With a week to go to reach day 168 now, it is still remarkable that this Low had the given impact. On the weather characteristics; yes, 2013 had similar Lows between 1-8 June. Temps were actually 1-5 dC lower over the whole Sib side then and it is this warmer situation that could make a difference.
DMI also shows '15 'following the path' of '12.
Given the stronger forcing (CO2/Methane) now and much warmer oceans it doesn't surprise me. One of these years Arctic melt will get back to the pattern downwards, like the series '10-'12 against those of '08-'09.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1253 on: June 11, 2015, 09:38:05 AM »
Hi, I've just started following this forum. I can see how weather conditions have a large effect on the ice melt. I was curious whether it is currently possible to have an ice free Arctic through a series of unfortunate weather patterns or hasn't the earth warmed up enough as yet.

Welcome to the forum, Michael. Personally, I think that volume since 2010 has been low enough for the Arctic to ice-free in September after a melting season that saw persistent conditions that are bad for the ice (because of a stuck jet stream, for instance, like we saw in 2013 and 2014).

But volume has gone up somewhat since 2012, and this year all of this increase is parked in the Central Arctic Basin (see my Winter Analysis on the ASIB), which means it will be extremely difficult to melt.

We've talked about the chronology of the perfect melting season. I think a prerequisite is for a lot of the thick multi-year ice to be transported out of the CAB during winter. Stuff like that.
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DoomInTheUK

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1254 on: June 11, 2015, 09:42:32 AM »
@Michael J

I'd say we're fairly close to the point were a perfect storm of good weather for the whole year might just do it. You'd need a low refreeze season and a full on melt season. The odds for any given year are fairly low, but they get better every year as more heat is trapped in the system.

We will have new lows and rebound years, but the trend is to lower ice coverage, and in the no too distant future, we will have an 'event'. You've certainly picked an interesting time to start ice-watching!

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1255 on: June 11, 2015, 10:51:50 AM »
:DWithin the reliable margin pf predictions, this Thursday may be hot in Canada, Alaska, and Siberia Laptev sea, warm air from Pacific, and Fram export all ar once. What comes next looks even worse as pointed out by LMV and Neven. Area cliff...


I feel area cliff much larger than anything we've seen before could indeed be this season, too. Recent record low extents while relatively (considering it's 2015, i mean) high area numbers on top of what you already mentioned. To me, this sounds like much extra bottom melt rather soon.

It is right now that i'd like to see how much NH land snow extent is present (for any date in the 04.06.2015 to 10.06.2015 or later), and compare that to previous years. And i also would like to see similar comparison for cloud cover over both ASI and land snow cover, and, of course, for melt ponds. For all three comparisons, direct satellite data (whereever possible) is what i am looking for.

Unable to dig for those myself right now. Would be much grateful if this information would be put here by someone who got it readily available (either or all three). Hopefully this interests not only me, as obviously this is quite important for ice melt, as we are near the peak insolation now, and for the next few weeks albedo and cloud cover are of critical importance.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2015, 12:12:23 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1256 on: June 11, 2015, 01:25:23 PM »
Michael and Werther, thanks for the detailed and informative replies to my questions, much appreciated!  :D

wanderer

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1257 on: June 11, 2015, 06:30:01 PM »
You can look at satellite images at EOSDIS Worldview.  In my opinion 2013 was worse at this date (I linked 3 days later to get a more cloud free view), and 2014 about the same.  Use add base layer to choose bands 3-6-7 to get a false colour (enhanced or filtered colour?) view which shows red for melting, orange for dry frozen snow/ice, and paler oranges to white for clouds.  This helps show that the ripple pattern is probably clouds.  Images at this site go back to 2012.  The MODIS equivelant used to go back to 2008 or 2009, but a hard drive failure wiped out the history.  I've also seen images going back to 2006 and 2007 but I don't know if anyone actually stitched the individual satellite snapshots of a small area together for a wider view of the Arctic.

I am not convinced. Looking at worldview I think 2015 is way ahead of 2013 and also ahead of 2014. Beaufort - we are one week ahead of 2014 and weeks ahead of 2013. And this is one of the most important melt regions and there's lots of old ice nearby. ESS, Laptev, Barents: here's 2015 behind, but not that much... Kara, Chukchi - 2015 ahead!
In my opinion it's pretty sure that we will beat 2013-2014, 2012 will depend on the weather and in 1-2 weeks we will know much more!


S.Pansa

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1259 on: June 11, 2015, 07:15:20 PM »
I am not convinced.

Agreed, I am neither. And after all, sea ice has three dimensions. Just compare Hycom + Cice thikness for  June 11th 2014 and 2015.

2015 is miles ahead nearly everywhere



Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1260 on: June 11, 2015, 07:29:26 PM »
F.Tnioli,
I don't know if this is helpful, but via the ASIG, there is a link to NH snow cover extent and snow water equivalent.  North America has more snow than average for this date, but extra snow in CAA and less snow in Alaska; Eurasia has average snow cover, but extra snow in the Himalayas and less snow in Siberia (if I read the information right).  See the graphs of snow coverage in relation to the norms, by date.   
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wanderer

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1261 on: June 11, 2015, 07:56:39 PM »
I am not convinced.

Agreed, I am neither. And after all, sea ice has three dimensions. Just compare Hycom + Cice thikness for  June 11th 2014 and 2015.

2015 is miles ahead nearly everywhere
Wow, even 2012 seems to be reachable!

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1262 on: June 11, 2015, 08:05:29 PM »
@Michael J

I'd say we're fairly close to the point were a perfect storm of good weather for the whole year might just do it. You'd need a low refreeze season and a full on melt season. The odds for any given year are fairly low, but they get better every year as more heat is trapped in the system.

We will have new lows and rebound years, but the trend is to lower ice coverage, and in the no too distant future, we will have an 'event'. You've certainly picked an interesting time to start ice-watching!

IMO, 2012 is a good example of how much "weather" can do.  Since the peripheral seas are mostly ice free by September, we are really asking what "weather" can do to the CAB.  In 2012, weather knocked out about a million square kilometers of extent more than usual, leaving 2.6 million square kilometers of unmelted extent.  (I'm using Wipneus amsr2 area graphs here.)

18 months of perfect storm conditions seems unlikely.  However, over the next few years as we regularly hit 2012 extents in September and that becomes the norm and a lot more multi-year ice has been permanently lost, then I think Weather may produce an "ice-free" September.

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1263 on: June 11, 2015, 08:51:45 PM »
I think you are right.  One "well placed" storm in late August - mid/late September.....and "poof"....there goes a lot of ice.

The only MYI is along the Canadian Archipelago...and that may be stubborn for a few years....but the other stuff doesn't stand a chance over the next 15 months (this summer and next summer).

The trend is your friend.....and for the ice....that trend is DOWN, and there are no scientific reasons that will turn around for the long term......

 

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Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1264 on: June 11, 2015, 09:07:34 PM »
Might not be important, but JISAO just came in with a PDO-value at +1,20 for May...

Still high, but we only have to go back to 2005 to find a more positive value in May. Interestingly, all months of May between 1992-1997 were higher...

//LMV

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1265 on: June 11, 2015, 09:25:07 PM »
ECMWF 12z run has a really interesting solution in the range 5-10 days. (YES! I know that there are uncertainities thus far away in time!) The solution foresees a cooler Arctic as HP will be replaced by LP.. Will be interesting to see if the next couple of model runs  will depict the same thing or if this is just an outlier..

//LMV

Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1266 on: June 11, 2015, 09:31:34 PM »
High temperatures...not good, really not good.
Still plenty of rain everywhere in the Arctic except offshore of Ellesmere.
http://www.weather-forecast.com/maps/Arctic?symbols=none&type=prec
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 11:04:35 AM by Laurent »

Michael J

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1267 on: June 12, 2015, 02:26:11 AM »
@Michael J

I'd say we're fairly close to the point were a perfect storm of good weather for the whole year might just do it. You'd need a low refreeze season and a full on melt season. The odds for any given year are fairly low, but they get better every year as more heat is trapped in the system.

We will have new lows and rebound years, but the trend is to lower ice coverage, and in the no too distant future, we will have an 'event'. You've certainly picked an interesting time to start ice-watching!

Thanks for the welcome. My background is risk analysis (first in power stations then in finance) and one thing I learnt is that probability of an event that hasn't yet occured tends to be a lot higher than what people initially calculate. This has caught us in major plant failures and all of the financial crashes.
In short  I'd bet that the first ice free year will take everybody by surprise or conversely a large recovery.

Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1268 on: June 12, 2015, 10:45:20 AM »
You can look at satellite images at EOSDIS Worldview.  In my opinion 2013 was worse at this date (I linked 3 days later to get a more cloud free view), and 2014 about the same.  Use add base layer to choose bands 3-6-7 to get a false colour (enhanced or filtered colour?) view which shows red for melting, orange for dry frozen snow/ice, and paler oranges to white for clouds.  This helps show that the ripple pattern is probably clouds.  Images at this site go back to 2012.  The MODIS equivelant used to go back to 2008 or 2009, but a hard drive failure wiped out the history.  I've also seen images going back to 2006 and 2007 but I don't know if anyone actually stitched the individual satellite snapshots of a small area together for a wider view of the Arctic.

I am not convinced. Looking at worldview I think 2015 is way ahead of 2013 and also ahead of 2014. Beaufort - we are one week ahead of 2014 and weeks ahead of 2013. And this is one of the most important melt regions and there's lots of old ice nearby. ESS, Laptev, Barents: here's 2015 behind, but not that much... Kara, Chukchi - 2015 ahead!
In my opinion it's pretty sure that we will beat 2013-2014, 2012 will depend on the weather and in 1-2 weeks we will know much more!

Apologies for not being more clear, I was replying to a previous post about the amount of fracturing close to the north pole, which I think was clearly worse in 2013, and about the same during 2014.  Over the entire Arctic a MODIS comparison with 13 or 14 is much more difficult.  2013 had remarkable levels of fracturing/open water near the pole, 14 had a remarkable start to the laptev melt, and this year has had a remarkable start in the Chukchi region.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1269 on: June 12, 2015, 12:20:39 PM »
Usually, I find Alaska weather is opposite that of east coast of the U.S. -- when one is particularly warm, the other is abnormally cold.  But next week, both are in for a heat wave.

Special Weather Statement Issued by NWS Anchorage (Southern Alaska - Anchorage)
Quote
Event:   Special Weather Statement
Alert:   
...WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
 
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FIRST OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFTING EAST AND STRENGTHENING OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL START A RATHER
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TOWARDS A MORE SUMMERY WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WARMING ON FRIDAY THEN CLIMB
MORE QUICKLY TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY...A TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL
PRODUCE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW AND SUPPRESS AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALLOWING THE TYPICALLY COOLER COASTAL LOCATIONS TO BECOME QUITE
WARM AS WELL.
THE WARM AND DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE PERSISTS AND IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR.
http://alerts.weather.gov/cap/wwacapget.php?x=AK1253AE05F3C0.SpecialWeatherStatement.1253AE150A40AK.AFCSPSAER.9997f440cae284eaa9f3196871d5d606
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 12:28:04 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1270 on: June 12, 2015, 04:06:02 PM »
We are now getting to the part of the season where melted snow contributes enough to melt pond coverage to show up plainly on CT concentration maps (based on 2012).





Note the melting of snow in the circled area between June 20, 2012 and June 22, 2012. Also,  compare that to the appearance of lower ice concentration on CT, indicating melt ponds:



Having noted the "striking resemblance" there, now we can try to imagine what will be the case this year.



If we can take 2012 as any clue, we should expect serious losses in ice concentration over almost the entire CAB by June 20-22 this year.

Note to astute readers: The snow depth thresholds are significantly lower for these maps than for the maps I posted earlier for snow depths on June 13th - for obvious reasons, as the month of June progresses, it is necessary to reduce the thresholds of snow depth to still get good information from the maps.
« Last Edit: June 12, 2015, 04:12:31 PM by Nightvid Cole »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1271 on: June 12, 2015, 05:36:42 PM »

Further speculation, fun weather for the next few days. Hot in CAA Hudson and Laptev, over zero in much of the Arctic, and that storm ...

My 2c extent falls 300 k and area 700 k in one week, compactness starts to drop.

Definitely weather forecasts can be so misleading, especially for those who don't read them well. Such a short drop in area with the expectations the reports were creating, and actually I thought to put 800k due to that general increase of temperature.

(...)


Think it is more about one of your basic assumptions that "bad weather = area/extent drop".
Particularly at this time of the year, the question if the weather is benign for the CAB or not will have only very weak effects on CAB extent and rather weak effects on the area (by melt ponding): I do not think that the ice area/extent cares a lot if you eat away the snow/upper 10 cm. You have the same area/extent, but a lot worse albedo that then shows up weeks later, when those regions finally weaken.

Placing my answer to the first sentence of your comment (the only part I understand) in this thread to stay on topic.

It is not an assumption, basic or whatever. It was a reasonable expectation. Plinius, actually last week's storm led to "area/extent drop". The storm did produce ice divergence (see Werther's image) lowering concentration in some areas; rain fell, and temperatures over zero led to surface melting. Area fell faster than extent, see Wipneus numbers.

I was just expecting faster melting due to forecast high temps over CAA, Hudson, and Laptev.

plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1272 on: June 12, 2015, 07:17:57 PM »
Area generally falls faster than extent at this time of the year...
Also, did the drops occur because of the storm or mostly because of WLA over  the fringes. I have a tendency to believe the latter.
Ice divergence: Yes, at the centre, rather no under the main storm field, in particular given the fact that the system should reduce area by ridging.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1273 on: June 12, 2015, 07:21:31 PM »
Looking at CC_Reanalyzers forecast for the next 7 days reveals that it's possible that ther ewon't be any snow cover left in the Arctic basin by sunstice...

//LMV

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1274 on: June 13, 2015, 02:39:01 AM »
Looking at CC_Reanalyzers forecast for the next 7 days reveals that it's possible that ther ewon't be any snow cover left in the Arctic basin by sunstice...

//LMV
Sure looks that.

Over the next 3 days, the Kara, Chukchi, Beaufort and CAA will be hammered by temps all the way up to 5c.  The remaining snow north of Greenland stays at or above zero, as does virtually every other stretch of ice.  Not encouraging.
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tzupancic

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1275 on: June 14, 2015, 06:46:21 AM »
As a new poster, just a couple of comments/questions regarding the 2015 melting season. First off, as introduction, I have previously posted on Neven's forum a handful of times. I am a Ph.D. scientist in a different field, but I have actively followed the Cryosphere for some time.  Thus, second, I am familiar with the hypothesis that May and June melt pond formation is fundamental in determining/driving Arctic Sea Ice melt extent.  So, third, as we approach the annual solar irradiance maximum, it nevertheless appears to me that the amount of solar energy entering into the system plays a significant role. Thus, fourth, this premise would appear to be 'complicated' by the influx of latent heat from water vapor (since the influx of water creates clouds that block solar irradiance.) (How does the this latent heat melt ice?) My understanding has been that the greatest contribution of energy to the arctic system was solar irradiance (thus the significance of melt ponds). How is this apparent contradiction resolved. But whatever, fifth, there is the issue of sea ice export which is clearly a 'none of the above'. How is that factored in? And, finally, sixth, it would appear that besides direct solar irradiance, and in contrast to transient tropospheric temperatures, heat that has accumulated in the oceans has to be an important factor.  If substantial transfer of heat from the oceans to the arctic were to occur, would this not have a substantial effect on the annual melt, if ocean heat were to flow into the arctic ocean?  I would appreciate your comments.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1276 on: June 14, 2015, 10:34:57 AM »
Welcome back, Tom.  :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1277 on: June 14, 2015, 06:51:57 PM »
A clearish view of the fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta breaking up, together witth SSTs now over 5 degrees

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#Beaufort



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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1278 on: June 14, 2015, 09:48:05 PM »
Care of EOSDIS Worldview

Extensive fracturing and melt ponding of land-fast ice in the ESS detail, with a broader image covering from the western Chukchi through the eastern Laptev, using 3-6-7 bands to bring out detail.

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Espen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1279 on: June 14, 2015, 09:53:40 PM »
Have a ice day!

anthropocene

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1280 on: June 14, 2015, 10:53:11 PM »
As a new poster, just a couple of comments/questions regarding the 2015 melting season. First off, as introduction, I have previously posted on Neven's forum a handful of times. I am a Ph.D. scientist in a different field, but I have actively followed the Cryosphere for some time.  Thus, second, I am familiar with the hypothesis that May and June melt pond formation is fundamental in determining/driving Arctic Sea Ice melt extent.  So, third, as we approach the annual solar irradiance maximum, it nevertheless appears to me that the amount of solar energy entering into the system plays a significant role. Thus, fourth, this premise would appear to be 'complicated' by the influx of latent heat from water vapor (since the influx of water creates clouds that block solar irradiance.) (How does the this latent heat melt ice?) My understanding has been that the greatest contribution of energy to the arctic system was solar irradiance (thus the significance of melt ponds). How is this apparent contradiction resolved. But whatever, fifth, there is the issue of sea ice export which is clearly a 'none of the above'. How is that factored in? And, finally, sixth, it would appear that besides direct solar irradiance, and in contrast to transient tropospheric temperatures, heat that has accumulated in the oceans has to be an important factor.  If substantial transfer of heat from the oceans to the arctic were to occur, would this not have a substantial effect on the annual melt, if ocean heat were to flow into the arctic ocean?  I would appreciate your comments.

Hi tzupancic
Well,  the simple answer is, yes all the factors you mention have some impact on the amount of ice melted. The relative impact of each factor depends on the state of the ice, the preceding and following weather conditions, the time of year and which contributor on this forum you talk to ;-)   Many reasons why the ice melting season is so interesting and causes so much discussion on this forum. (Look back at the historical threads in this forum for discussions of many of the factors you list). Complicating this is the changes over periods of less than a decade to the arctic itself. There is a danger that the conditions will change faster than statistical data and science can keep up. I won't try to summarize or promote any one of these factors as the major one here. Just advise that when thinking about each factor it is the amout of energy transmitted to the ice which is critical. 

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1281 on: June 14, 2015, 11:06:05 PM »
I've just posted a blog post on the ASIB, discussing the situation with regards to melt ponding during May: Melt Pond May 2015.

Here's Dr. David Schröder's prediction for the SIPN Sea Ice Outlook:



Quote
    Based on our simulated May melt pond fraction we predict a September 2015 mean ice extent for the Arctic of 5.1 +/- 0.5 Mill. km2. Our value is slightly lower than in 2013 (5.4 Mill. km2) and 2014 (5.3 Mill. km2), but considerably larger than in 2012 (3.6 Mill. km2). The attached 3 figures show the anomaly of May melt pond fraction in May 2015, May 2014 and May 2012 with respect to the mean over the period May 2006 to May 2015. Locations which show no correlation with the September ice extent are masked.

    In May 2012 there are positive anomalies of pond fraction with values between 0.5 and 2% above the last 10-year average, whereas in May 2014 negative anomalies between -0.2 and -1% occurred. In May 2015, the anomalies are mainly negative, but weaker than in 2014. The pond fraction does mainly depend on the atmospheric conditions in May and the pre-conditioning of sea ice (sea ice thickness, area fraction of thin ice).

    While the atmospheric conditions were quite "normal" in May in average, the ice is thicker in April 2015 in our model simulation compared to previous years. The increase in ice thickness and volume is also confirmed by the PIOMAS simulation: maximum ice volume in 2015: 24388 km3, in 2014: 23104 km3 and in 2011: 22677 km3.  The given uncertainty of our prediction of 0.5 Mill. km2 is mainly caused by ice drift during summer and the atmospheric conditions during June. Given the current situation we do not expect a new record minimum for Arctic summer sea ice in 2015.
The second half of June will have to see some serious melt ponding for 2015 to stay away from 2013 and 2014, but I'm not really seeing in the forecast right now. Yes, in the coming 2-3 days, but not after that, with low pressure taking over again.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1282 on: June 14, 2015, 11:45:49 PM »
Surface melting in much of the CAB is clearly visible on today's MODIS (Terra 4km for 06/14/2015):

« Last Edit: June 14, 2015, 11:52:25 PM by Nightvid Cole »

JayW

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1283 on: June 15, 2015, 12:32:26 AM »
I thought I'd plot the mean surface pressure for the upcoming period June 15-30, 2012. (First attachment)
Second attachment is the temp anomalies for the same time period. 
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jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1284 on: June 15, 2015, 08:22:41 AM »
I thought I'd plot the mean surface pressure for the upcoming period June 15-30, 2012. (First attachment)
Second attachment is the temp anomalies for the same time period.
Low pressure, but warmer than '13/'14.
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cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1285 on: June 15, 2015, 09:18:17 AM »
* May and June melt pond formation
 * solar energy
 * latent heat from water vapor
 * sea ice export
 * heat that has accumulated in the oceans

I would argue that heat that has accumulated in the oceans is the most important factor.  Compare the latitude of ice above Europe vs the latitude of ice elsewhere.

I would argue that solar energy grows in importance as something has happened to decrease the albedo of the ice.  So solar energy isn't as important in high albedo May and is more important in low albedo August.

Other interesting items:
* "warm" water entering from watersheds.  The MacKenzie river watershed was quite warm this spring, leading to a high burst of incoming water and a rapid melt near the delta.
* Open seas lead to higher waves and more mechanical breaking of ice as well as better mixing of water and ice.
* Localized methane emissions may produce a local greenhouse effect?
* Northern tundra fires may deposit soot increasing the effect of solar energy.

And then we may want to list:
* Winds from the south coming off a hot continent vs blowing in water vapor.  Perhaps the hot air cools off so fast over the ocean or ice as to not be all that interesting though.
* Storms.  The August 2012 storm seems to have been interesting.  The recent 2015 storm also moved some ice around in interesting fashions.
* Multi-year ice should somehow be listed: higher melting point, protected position in the CAB.  Getting multi-year ice dispersed to more southern seas should be about as important as exporting ice through the Fram.

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1286 on: June 15, 2015, 09:25:11 AM »

Quote
   The attached 3 figures show the anomaly of May melt pond fraction in May 2015, May 2014 and May 2012 with respect to the mean over the period May 2006 to May 2015.


How many of the years from 2006 through 2015 were El Nino years?  Can we use years where warm moist air wasn't blowing up through the Bering Strait to tell us what will happen when warm moist air is blowing through the Bering Strait?

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1287 on: June 15, 2015, 01:48:29 PM »
...
Thanks for the welcome. My background is risk analysis (first in power stations then in finance) and one thing I learnt is that probability of an event that hasn't yet occured tends to be a lot higher than what people initially calculate. This has caught us in major plant failures and all of the financial crashes.
In short  I'd bet that the first ice free year will take everybody by surprise or conversely a large recovery.
I agree with this, except the "everybody" word. Instead of "everybody", i'd say "vast majority". There are few folks who are well expecting ice free year very soon, even possibly this year. For example, Dr. Wieslaw Maslovski modelled blue ocean event in Arctic by 2016 +-3 years some five years ago, see http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-13002706 . His PHD is from univercity of Fairbanks, Alaska, - same univercity which has Igor Semiletov, Natalia Shakhova and many other "let's get there and measure things directly" scientists working in the Arctic.

Personally, i do agree with Wieslaw on this prediction. That is, as long as Arctic climate would not be experiencing massive geo-engineering effort made by humans with the goal to cool it down much. 2012 had minimum sea ice volume being ~20% of the "normal" amount, which means in terms of extra heat which melted that extra ice, 2012 "almost made it" to ice-free state. Because it takes much less forcing to melt "last remaining" 20% of sea ice than to melt "initial extra 20%" of it - albedo feedbacks, higher temperatures around when it's "last 20% remaining", the massively powerful mixing effect (storms vs thin remaining ice - breaks ice, mixes it with water, faster melt), etc.

Frankly, i feel 2012 was in large part such a dramatic loss exactly because of that "melt acceleration" which happens when volume of sea ice gets below ~30...40% of the "norm". You just wait till the next year like 2012 which forces melt just some ~5% stronger, and it quite possibly will be the thing - ice free Septemper in the Arctic ocean. And with present and strong higher average temperature trend for Arctic, this is indeed a question of years - not decades, IMHO.

P.S. I say "norm" and "normal" with ""s because figures usually considered as normal annual minimum sea ice volume/extent/area are likely to be significantly lower than true normal values for last ~100+ years, in my opinion.


append:
...
The trend is your friend.....and for the ice....that trend is DOWN, and there are no scientific reasons that will turn around for the long term......
Yes, it is DOWN indeed. But, depends on how you define "long term". Thousands of years? Yep. CO2. Hundreds? Yep, CO2 and CH4. Decades? Not so sure. Years? Possibly not. Even reversal of the current DOWN trend is in fact technically possible - geo-engineering the Arctic, i mean, is not proven impossible.

Now, assume for a moment that some party (let's say, UN or US state department, whatever) decides to go and try cooling the Arctic artificially. I mean they decide to _do_ it, - not to tell us they are doing it, of course. Telling public and even scientific community about some massive planetary-scale affair is not in the interest of an entity who does such affair for its own interest. They didn't tell people about Manhattan project when it was going on, for example. And i think it is quite easier to "classify" exact composition of the athmosphere in the Arctic than to deny facts of nuclear explosions on US soil, for example.

I am not saying there is geo-engineering in the Arctic right now. I am not saying geo-engineering of some kind is guaranteed to be practically effective if attempted, neither; hard to say if it would be effective. But looking to Arctic ice 2013 and 2014, especially August week+ "pauses" in melt process (total ASI area nubmbers), my intuition sometimes tells me that may be there was/is an attempt, started 2013. Something short-lived sprayed in CAB in July/August which significantly reduces/slows melt process, some kind of Welsbach seeding? If something like this is happening there (without us knowing or at least without anyone reliably admitting it in public), then i have a feeling it only slowed this trend DOWN for Arctic sea ice, but in its "would be" current implementation, - i think such geo-engineering won't be able to stop or reverse the trend we are talking about. Will "they" try something "stronger" some time later if "the plan A" won't work to stop/reverse this DOWN trend for ASI? Who knows. I would, if i would be them. But for how long such desperate measures could be of any much help? Probably not more than for a few decades, after which still growing GHG effect from CO2, and most likely massive CH4 outburst on top of it - would overpower even best geo-engineering "solutions", which "developed" countries could fathom. Hence the above distinction between hundreds and decades for the "long term". Still, since business operates primarily on few years into the future perspective, it is obvious that powerful financial structures could in fact be very interested in such "this can buy us few more years of relatively stable climate" projects, and in fact even perform some without public knowledge. After all, Arctic is a place FAR away from "us", isn't it.

Of course, this all is purely hypothetical.


append #2:
F.Tnioli,
I don't know if this is helpful, ...
It sure is. It seems NH has less than 250Gt of snow left now. I always liked the Finn way to do things, and once again i do - http://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg, which i found via your link. Thank you.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2015, 04:24:09 PM by F.Tnioli »
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

Jmo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1288 on: June 15, 2015, 04:22:41 PM »
Am I naive?  IMHO, there is no "geo-engineering" in the Arctic.  Even if there was, IMHO it would change nothing compared to the variability in weather and energy carried by air masses and ocean...

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1289 on: June 15, 2015, 04:29:55 PM »
Am I naive?  IMHO, there is no "geo-engineering" in the Arctic.  Even if there was, IMHO it would change nothing compared to the variability in weather and energy carried by air masses and ocean...
I don't know how naive you are. What i know is that US patent for "reducing athmospheric or global warming" exists for 20+ years - see http://www.google.ru/patents/US5003186 (and i know _those_ inventors and Hughes company overall - are doing very, very serious business, follow 'em links about "inventors" and you'll see). And i know that most effective and/or controversial geo-engineering methods are unlikely to be even patented. And i know that phraze "athmospheric OR global" means the method can be used to reduce warming non-globally - for example in the Arctic. And i know "good" mr. Teller and after him, "good" mr. Lowell Wood were conducting serious research for White House on the subject. And i know more, but it's best not to tell more, so i won't.
« Last Edit: June 15, 2015, 04:44:03 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Jmo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1290 on: June 15, 2015, 04:42:33 PM »
FT.  In all honesty, nothing would surprise me.  :)
Meanwhile, over in the Kara...

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1291 on: June 15, 2015, 04:57:04 PM »
Am I naive?  IMHO, there is no "geo-engineering" in the Arctic.  Even if there was, IMHO it would change nothing compared to the variability in weather and energy carried by air masses and ocean...
I don't know how naive you are. What i know is that US patent for "reducing athmospheric or global warming" exists for 20+ years - see http://www.google.ru/patents/US5003186 (and i know _those_ inventors and Hughes company overall - are doing very, very serious business, follow 'em links about "inventors" and you'll see). And i know that most effective and/or controversial geo-engineering methods are unlikely to be even patented. And i know that phraze "athmospheric OR global" means the method can be used to reduce warming non-globally - for example in the Arctic. And i know "good" mr. Teller and after him, "good" mr. Lowell Wood were conducting serious research for White House on the subject. And i know more, but it's best not to tell more, so i won't.

F.Tnioli, respectfully, I think we are drifting a bit off-topic

So I see this and I think 2012




Then I see this,






And I think, what gives? lower concentration regions almost the negative of previous map. (I know these are different measurement systems, but still ...)

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1292 on: June 15, 2015, 04:57:54 PM »
...
How many of the years from 2006 through 2015 were El Nino years? ...
Sadly, this is debatable. The "El Nino" term itself is debatable. A typical El-Nino mere 30 years ago was colder than present-day La-Nina, with changing climate it's still unclear what exactly we should "count" as El-Nino and what we shouldn't. Plus, of course, it ain't same duration each time it comes, nor same strength. Here's one good graph for you:




Append:
F.Tnioli, respectfully, I think we are drifting a bit off-topic
...
Can't concur. Even mere possibility of geo-engineering belongs in here as long as it has the potential to affect the melt season much, see above about August "pauses" in melt. But, you're the boss. I got the hint. I won't mention geo-engineering anymore.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

sedziobs

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1293 on: June 15, 2015, 05:41:33 PM »
I won't mention geo-engineering anymore.

Perhaps mention geo-engineering in the dedicated thread?
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,958.0.html

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1294 on: June 15, 2015, 05:46:56 PM »
Am I naive?  IMHO, there is no "geo-engineering" in the Arctic.  Even if there was, IMHO it would change nothing compared to the variability in weather and energy carried by air masses and ocean...
I don't know how naive you are. What i know is that US patent for "reducing athmospheric or global warming" exists for 20+ years - see http://www.google.ru/patents/US5003186 (and i know _those_ inventors and Hughes company overall - are doing very, very serious business, follow 'em links about "inventors" and you'll see). And i know that most effective and/or controversial geo-engineering methods are unlikely to be even patented. And i know that phraze "athmospheric OR global" means the method can be used to reduce warming non-globally - for example in the Arctic. And i know "good" mr. Teller and after him, "good" mr. Lowell Wood were conducting serious research for White House on the subject. And i know more, but it's best not to tell more, so i won't.

F.Tnioli, respectfully, I think we are drifting a bit off-topic

So I see this and I think 2012




Then I see this,






And I think, what gives? lower concentration regions almost the negative of previous map. (I know these are different measurement systems, but still ...)

The first map you show is from SSMI/S, which is an older satellite sensor that uses a lower frequency of microwaves. The second map you show comes from AMSR2, which is a newer sensor and uses a higher microwave frequency. Due to the usage of higher frequency microwaves, it is much more sensitive to cloud cover than the SSMI/S sensor is. This is why it shows a high concentration on the Alaskan side of the ice pack, while the SSMI/S based map does not. You can clearly see from the MODIS image on Reply #1286 (visible light) that the Beaufort (off North coast of Alaska) and Chukchi (off Northwest coast of Alaska) had significant overcast cloud cover yesterday, thus explaining the discrepancy.

« Last Edit: June 15, 2015, 05:58:14 PM by Nightvid Cole »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1295 on: June 15, 2015, 06:05:07 PM »
Nightvid Cole,

Great, makes all sense, thanks for the explanation.

The Pacific Side is getting then a superb blow


epiphyte

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1296 on: June 15, 2015, 07:06:35 PM »

[...]
The second half of June will have to see some serious melt ponding for 2015 to stay away from 2013 and 2014, but I'm not really seeing in the forecast right now. Yes, in the coming 2-3 days, but not after that, with low pressure taking over again.

I'm not so sure that melt ponding in May is a reliable prognosticator. There never is any melt ponding in May north of the 80th parallel, and between 70-80N there enough energy around these days that things can change very fast at any time in the summer. Sure if there is ponding in May in a region, it tells you that a) there's significant snow, and b) the wind has spent some time coming from a favorable direction early in spring. The first used to be a given, but it isn't any more. The second used to be necessary if there was to be time to have an impact on area later - but of late this too is no longer the case.

Increasingly to me it seems that with the low volumes and uniform thickness we have today, it's all about the dice roll of weather patterns transporting accumulated heat and moisture between the lower latitudes and the CAB. A long enough string of favorable winds could set things up for a very rapid collapse with little early visible effect on area, extent, or even melt ponding at all.

E.g. an hour of heavy rain on bare ice could set it up to disappear overnight. Conversely, the same precipitation falling as snow could tip the balance in the other direction and protect it from melting for weeks.

So I've stopped looking for events that could _cause_ a sudden collapse, and started looking for events that could _prevent_ one. So far this year, I haven't seen any. IMO If it keeps up exactly the same way it's been going, things will be looking very different sooner than you'd think.


seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1297 on: June 15, 2015, 07:28:40 PM »
Glb HYCOM+CICE prediction for Solstice Day is pretty dramatic:



Correction: Solstice is June 21 for most of Asia Europe and America this year

Vergent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1298 on: June 15, 2015, 08:58:56 PM »
For those of you that think 2015 will not shatter the record low......Please close your eyes and stick index fingers in ears.



Verg :-\

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #1299 on: June 15, 2015, 09:56:05 PM »
12z ECMWF goes into serious torching mode on the Pacific sector almost all the way to the North pole - especially around +144h, +168h, and +192h!