Thank you. Had no time even to check PIOMASS itself today, werk. Few minutes, i have now. PIOMASS gives 15.263 for July 1st, roughly speaking. That is unbelievable. Too high. Someones went nuts - either someone in PIOMASS, or someone in DMI.
Don't have more time to write right now. Please do investigate if possible for me. Should be interesting.
Odd, I see nothing surprising in the PIOMAS data at all.
Odd is that you don't see nothing odd about it.
All numbers are thousands km^3. Values is what i "eye-balled" from DMI and PIOMASS volume graphs, and so should be +-150km^3, unless i've done some silly mistake doing quick ariphmetics in my head. Numbers given are losses of volume for June 1st ... July 1st period for listed years - i.e. how much ice was gone during month of June.
2011: PIOMASS 6,7; DMI 8,7
2012: PIOMASS 7,3; DMI 10,4
2013: PIOMASS 6,6; DMI 8,0
2014: PIOMASS 5,7; DMI 6,4
2015: PIOMASS 6,2; DMI 9,2
As you can see, when those two models had ~3000km^3 difference for monthly June loss last time - it was 2012, and we know what happened in September 2012. You can also see 2013 and 2014 had those two models coming into increasingly good agreement here, and i was thinking perhaps this year this tendency would continue. But no! Once again, like in 2012, we have ~3000km^3 difference.
Frankly, what use those models are, if they disagree by as much as ~50% (9,2 is ~150% of 6,2 you know)?
Anyhows, as was said in this topic recently, PIOMASS is more about long-term trend. I still put my personal faith in DMI - granted, they are not flawless and their model has its own problems, - but if 2012 is of any indication, i say this 2015 June loss of ~9200 km^3 in DMI data - is likely an early warning of things to come later in this melt season.
Thoughts?