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Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2300 on: July 21, 2015, 03:02:16 AM »
On current trends, one more week or so and area and extent will pretty much match 2012 and 2007. What will matter then is whether this year shallows out as other years did or continues declining steeply as 2012 did.

Look at the CT area graph. 2012 shows  a sharp downward inflection around day 210 where others don't. This year would need to keep descending like that to be a contender. But with the advanced melt in ESS/Chukchi and Laptev catching up, if the Beaufort goes then early incursions from those seas into the CAB should help a lot. Another important factor is the low melt on the Atlantic side. That probably needs to speed up to be in the race to catch 2012.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2301 on: July 21, 2015, 04:37:14 AM »
Area unimportant.
Ice depth is all that really matters, no?

Yes, volume (area x average depth) is for sure a better measure of the amount of ice than is area.

But several complications: 1) What the media and therefore public pays attention to is extent (i.e., arbitrarily thresholded area), and public awareness may eventually lead to reduced warming. 2) Area is important in that it is related to albedo: more liquid => more radiation absorbed => more melting. 3) Volume is far more difficult to measure than extent or area, so the figures you see bandied about are based mostly on models with few measurements and probably (in my opinion) very large uncertainties. 4) What really, really matters isn't even volume, but mass (volume x density), and the density (a.k.a. "quality") of ice is perhaps even more difficult to measure on a large scale than volume, but seems from anecdotal evidence to be rapidly deteriorating.

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Donna

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2302 on: July 21, 2015, 04:51:00 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2303 on: July 21, 2015, 06:30:20 AM »
Some people are throwing the "impossible" word around a little too freely.  Something can be very difficult...and very unlikely to happen....but not be impossible.

Getting down to 1 million is VERY...VERY....unlikely.  But it is NOT impossible.
I think unlikely is perhaps the correct term. That kind of dramatic discontinuity does happen when systems change state. It could happen one year soon, from a base not much lower than this, and everyone will remark upon how drattedly discontinuous it was, and on how no one could have predicted it. But it will probably happen during more "perfect" conditions than now, when the weak ice is attacked not only by heat but other elements of weather. What is very, very unlikely is that models will predict it happening that year.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2304 on: July 21, 2015, 07:05:47 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.


ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2305 on: July 21, 2015, 07:30:06 AM »
I think Nick was asking about the result you'd get if included only pre-2012 years in computing the distribution for 2012 (i.e. forecast, not hindcast).

I thought that too initially, but it wasn't what was written.

Graph attached. probability of 2012 rises to 0.3% (for the individual date, apply a reaonable range and the probability will increase - any spot figure is rather improbable, some are less improbable than others).

The disrtibution for 2007 to 2012 drops notably, showing the role of 2013 and 2014 in the preceding 2012 and 2015 distributions based on 2007 to 2014 data.

So the graph shows 2007 to 2012 applied to 2015 and 2007 to 2012 applied to 2012.

"Pre-2012" would have to be 2007-2011, not 2007-2012 as you show.

Of course, yes it should have been, posted just before bed.

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2306 on: July 21, 2015, 07:56:45 AM »
Well, with the centre estimate around 4.5 million, then hitting 1 million is about as possible as bottoming out at 8 million.  Sure, it's still technically possible since we're currently at ~8.27 million.  Something might happen to prevent all further melt this summer.  It's possible.  Just... not likely.

I dunno...  Seems to me that any scenario involving bottoming out at 8 million is going to involve space aliens installing a solar shade over the arctic or something like that.  Getting down to 1 million might only involve a once-in-500-years cyclone or a largish asteroid missing Russia.

LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2307 on: July 21, 2015, 07:59:09 AM »
Some people are throwing the "impossible" word around a little too freely.  Something can be very difficult...and very unlikely to happen....but not be impossible.

Getting down to 1 million is VERY...VERY....unlikely.  But it is NOT impossible.
I think unlikely is perhaps the correct term. That kind of dramatic discontinuity does happen when systems change state. It could happen one year soon, from a base not much lower than this, and everyone will remark upon how drattedly discontinuous it was, and on how no one could have predicted it. But it will probably happen during more "perfect" conditions than now, when the weak ice is attacked not only by heat but other elements of weather. What is very, very unlikely is that models will predict it happening that year.
impossible is ending the minimum at 20m2k in extent, 1m probably not, but if you get a 2012 cyclone that starts spitting out ice through the Fram like a malfunctioning ice maker then, yah you could get down to that number. In other words all the stars have to line up exactly right.  Now getting down to 2012 extent numbers that is a story that still can be possible all depending of course on what condition that thick ice really is in and again what kind of Aug weather we also get.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2308 on: July 21, 2015, 08:09:39 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.
Every thickness model i have seen this year seems to be showing some very strange seemly impossible behaviour. Is it because they have new satellites are are still working out what the numbers really mean? or do we have a case that the ice is in such poor condition that the satellites can not tell what they are looking at?
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cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2309 on: July 21, 2015, 08:24:15 AM »
Is the data behind the average daily temperature graphs north of 80 degrees (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php) publicly available?  If so, how would I get it?  I'm interested in the number of thawing degree-days by year and the number of thawing degree days after today's date by year.
thanks, Chuck

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2310 on: July 21, 2015, 09:00:01 AM »
I think Nick was asking about the result you'd get if included only pre-2012 years in computing the distribution for 2012 (i.e. forecast, not hindcast).

I thought that too initially, but it wasn't what was written.

Graph attached. probability of 2012 rises to 0.3% (for the individual date, apply a reaonable range and the probability will increase - any spot figure is rather improbable, some are less improbable than others).

The disrtibution for 2007 to 2012 drops notably, showing the role of 2013 and 2014 in the preceding 2012 and 2015 distributions based on 2007 to 2014 data.

So the graph shows 2007 to 2012 applied to 2015 and 2007 to 2012 applied to 2012.

Would it be interesting to apply this analysis to just the Central Arctic Basin?  or perhaps CAA + CAB?  Integrating on a region by region basis might be more interesting?

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2311 on: July 21, 2015, 09:24:42 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.
Every thickness model i have seen this year seems to be showing some very strange seemly impossible behaviour. Is it because they have new satellites are are still working out what the numbers really mean? or do we have a case that the ice is in such poor condition that the satellites can not tell what they are looking at?


See this post
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1320.msg56928.html#msg56928

They acknowledege something not quite right

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2312 on: July 21, 2015, 09:44:34 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.
Every thickness model i have seen this year seems to be showing some very strange seemly impossible behaviour. Is it because they have new satellites are are still working out what the numbers really mean? or do we have a case that the ice is in such poor condition that the satellites can not tell what they are looking at?
Might be contributing. There are large areas of high extent which seem little better than "ice soup".     The nature of the surface could be playing hob with the microwave sensing.
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Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2313 on: July 21, 2015, 10:37:50 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?
Something's broken in their model this year and they're trying to find out what. See the following thread for details. I'll keep you posted here if they reply to me again.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1320.0.html

johnm33

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2314 on: July 21, 2015, 10:51:45 AM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.
Every thickness model i have seen this year seems to be showing some very strange seemly impossible behaviour. Is it because they have new satellites are are still working out what the numbers really mean? or do we have a case that the ice is in such poor condition that the satellites can not tell what they are looking at?
Or could it be that the models are working fine but the 'ice' just doesn't have the mass we're used to, slush, crusty snow, rotten ice call it what you will. If there is a lot less mass then the impossible could be achieved even with less than ideal [for melt] conditions. Just sayin.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2315 on: July 21, 2015, 11:58:50 AM »
Or could it be that the models are working fine but the 'ice' just doesn't have the mass we're used to, slush, crusty snow, rotten ice call it what you will.

How do the models know that? Do they have some parameter for ice quality or mass?

Look, 2012 was followed by two cold rebound years. The amount of multi-year ice increased, and so did volume most probably. This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?

If, and that's a very big if, if these weather conditions persist, and there's a massive amount of compaction in August, extent/area could go lower than 2007/2011.

But the models are now saying the party is over in 5-6 days from now, with the high pressure shifting to Siberia, and lows taking over on the Canadian/Alaskan side.

And so the short-term question for this melting season is: What will happen when weather conditions change? Will the melting come to a standstill, or has enough melting momentum been built up in the past few weeks for this rate to continue a while longer?

And the long-term question for this melting season is: What happens to the rebound in MYI and volume? Will it be conserved or wiped out?

That's the key question, and has been from the start of the melting season (see my winter analysis on the ASIB).
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2316 on: July 21, 2015, 12:27:25 PM »
I wonder about the quality of some of the survival ice too. We all saw the aloft cam piccies of the ice at the end of 13 and 14 and some of it was well rotted ( though very pretty!) That ice then refroze with FY ice infill. Though the carcass is tougher to melt out ( lower salinity) the FY infill might have already gone?

If so then the ice that hung on through the past 2 summer might now be succumbing across swathes of the basin?

If the FY glue that held the Crackopalypse ice together has melted then why not Carcass infill?
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6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2317 on: July 21, 2015, 12:31:34 PM »
Or could it be that the models are working fine but the 'ice' just doesn't have the mass we're used to, slush, crusty snow, rotten ice call it what you will.

How do the models know that? Do they have some parameter for ice quality or mass?

Look, 2012 was followed by two cold rebound years. The amount of multi-year ice increased, and so did volume most probably. This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?

If, and that's a very big if, if these weather conditions persist, and there's a massive amount of compaction in August, extent/area could go lower than 2007/2011.

But the models are now saying the party is over in 5-6 days from now, with the high pressure shifting to Siberia, and lows taking over on the Canadian/Alaskan side.

And so the short-term question for this melting season is: What will happen when weather conditions change? Will the melting come to a standstill, or has enough melting momentum been built up in the past few weeks for this rate to continue a while longer?

And the long-term question for this melting season is: What happens to the rebound in MYI and volume? Will it be conserved or wiped out?

That's the key question, and has been from the start of the melting season (see my winter analysis on the ASIB).
Neven, I think the point might be that the models don't know that. As the state of the physical system changes (before our eyes) the variables required to successully model the system change.

I have to admit that I know zip about climate science. But models of markets have similar difficulties with rapid change.

Entropy101

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2318 on: July 21, 2015, 12:33:23 PM »
Look, 2012 was followed by two cold rebound years. The amount of multi-year ice increased, and so did volume most probably.
But this is also an assumption. End 2012, even a large part of the multi year ice consisted of broken floes and rotten ice as well, with frozen over leads. Yes, we had two rebound years, but was that sufficient to remake the bad stuff of end of 2012 into the very tough multi year ice the models suggest it is?

The same with volume. How much salt does that multi year ice still contain? Is it really old multi year ice where most of the salt is gone or is it a "newer" variety with a higher salt content and thus weaker?

In my very unexpert opinion I think the rebound could be described as mostly cosmetic. I think that a significant part of the damage done in 2012 has not been "repaired" by the rebound years because there was just too little time. And that is coming back to haunt us this season, where the melt conditions are again a lot better than 2013/2014.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2319 on: July 21, 2015, 12:34:02 PM »
For 2015 to match 2012's minimum, the remainder of the melting season will probably have to show us some moves we haven't seen before. That hasn't happened since 2012 and 2013, so we can be confident it won't happen this year  ;)

Donna

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2320 on: July 21, 2015, 03:06:01 PM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?
Something's broken in their model this year and they're trying to find out what. See the following thread for details. I'll keep you posted here if they reply to me again.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1320.0.html

Thanks Peter - looking forward to an explanation.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 03:56:38 PM by Donna »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2321 on: July 21, 2015, 03:06:45 PM »
Neven, I think the point might be that the models don't know that.

The point is that people shouldn't refer to models that are clearly having problems and then say that 2015 is in a much worse state than 2012, for example.

All this talk reminds me about that story about the neocons who wanted the US to spend more money on defense towards the end of the Cold War. They ordered the CIA to spy on the Russians, but the CIA came back and said that the Soviet Union was about to collapse and didn't have money to maintain their arsenal, let alone build new weapons. The neocons then said: Aha, their weapon technology must be so advanced that we can't see it!

It's bad enough as it is, especially if the rebound gets wiped out. I'd rather focus on that than on some imminent catastrophe. I'm not saying a catastrophe isn't imminent, but this isn't the year.
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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2322 on: July 21, 2015, 03:52:02 PM »
Look, 2012 was followed by two cold rebound years. The amount of multi-year ice increased, and so did volume most probably. This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?
Here you present two separate issues. One being the MYI rebounded giving the impression that the new MYI is equal to pre 2007 MYI. I remember the reports coming out at the end of 2012 melt season that there was virtually NO MYI left in the Arctic. Therefore how can all this new MYI that suddenly shows up be the same? It does not take only one season to get rid of salt to change it from FYI to MYI. Therefore my contention is all this new MYI is actually very salty. Not only that, but held together by FYI.
Part two is that we had low Max low melt yet warm conditions. You argue that because we still have  high area and extent numbers the ice must be very strong and will still hold out to the end. It could be right in that it will hold out to the end but having lived most of my life in snow country I know that snow and ice can fool you into believing it will be there for a long time and then you wake up one morning it it has all disappeared over night.
If I start out with the premiss that the MYI is not true MYI and all the ice that is around is being attacked by higher then normal heat, then I am left with the conclusion that the ice is faking us out. If it does not happen this season then unless we get a very cold long winter and a very cold short summer that ice is in very serious trouble. I live in a country where you can have 6 feet of snow everywhere vanish in less then a week.
I also keep on seeing posts talking about heat that is only being generated within the Arctic and that there is not enough left to do the job. That only works out if you have a very strong jet stream that is keeping the Arctic isolated from the rest of the world weather patterns and cool ocean currents running into the Arctic. Under today's conditions even an Arctic low can draw in a lot of heat from its surrounding environment and all that water flowing into the Arctic is all well above average. Not ideal conditions to sustain strong ice and keeping it strong.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2323 on: July 21, 2015, 04:07:10 PM »
Look, 2012 was followed by two cold rebound years. The amount of multi-year ice increased, and so did volume most probably. This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?
Here you present two separate issues. One being the MYI rebounded giving the impression that the new MYI is equal to pre 2007 MYI. I remember the reports coming out at the end of 2012 melt season that there was virtually NO MYI left in the Arctic. Therefore how can all this new MYI that suddenly shows up be the same? It does not take only one season to get rid of salt to change it from FYI to MYI. Therefore my contention is all this new MYI is actually very salty. Not only that, but held together by FYI.
Part two is that we had low Max low melt yet warm conditions. You argue that because we still have  high area and extent numbers the ice must be very strong and will still hold out to the end. It could be right in that it will hold out to the end but having lived most of my life in snow country I know that snow and ice can fool you into believing it will be there for a long time and then you wake up one morning it it has all disappeared over night.
If I start out with the premiss that the MYI is not true MYI and all the ice that is around is being attacked by higher then normal heat, then I am left with the conclusion that the ice is faking us out. If it does not happen this season then unless we get a very cold long winter and a very cold short summer that ice is in very serious trouble. I live in a country where you can have 6 feet of snow everywhere vanish in less then a week.
I also keep on seeing posts talking about heat that is only being generated within the Arctic and that there is not enough left to do the job. That only works out if you have a very strong jet stream that is keeping the Arctic isolated from the rest of the world weather patterns and cool ocean currents running into the Arctic. Under today's conditions even an Arctic low can draw in a lot of heat from its surrounding environment and all that water flowing into the Arctic is all well above average. Not ideal conditions to sustain strong ice and keeping it strong.

Well, one thing that we can say for sure is, the MYI that was advected into the Beaufort Sea over this past winter is now broken up and low-concentration, and that ice with a concentration below 65% by July 20th does not survive the season. I've looked through every year since 2002 and have been unable to find a single exception.

Beaufort is a goner.

Rick Aster

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2324 on: July 21, 2015, 04:23:40 PM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

The core area of 4-7 meter ice is pretty much gone, and that has to matter eventually, but perhaps not so much this season.

DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2325 on: July 21, 2015, 04:28:33 PM »
This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?
Here you present two separate issues.
Part two is that we had low Max low melt yet warm conditions. You argue that because we still have  high area and extent numbers the ice must be very strong and will still hold out to the end. It could be right in that it will hold out to the end but having lived most of my life in snow country I know that snow and ice can fool you into believing it will be there for a long time and then you wake up one morning it it has all disappeared over night.


Well, one thing that we can say for sure is, the MYI that was advected into the Beaufort Sea over this past winter is now broken up and low-concentration, and that ice with a concentration below 65% by July 20th does not survive the season. I've looked through every year since 2002 and have been unable to find a single exception.

Beaufort is a goner.
According to  NOAA,  2014 was warmer than 2015 across the Arctic from Jan to May and 2013 was warmer in Jan Feb and May so I don't accept the proposition that this year was warmer than those years.  Even in June 2013 SST's were warmer than 2015. In my  view the amount of melting this year is actually  surprising given the relatively cool temperatures up till the end of May.
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6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2326 on: July 21, 2015, 04:43:35 PM »
Neven, I think the point might be that the models don't know that.

The point is that people shouldn't refer to models that are clearly having problems and then say that 2015 is in a much worse state than 2012, for example.

All this talk reminds me about that story about the neocons who wanted the US to spend more money on defense towards the end of the Cold War. They ordered the CIA to spy on the Russians, but the CIA came back and said that the Soviet Union was about to collapse and didn't have money to maintain their arsenal, let alone build new weapons. The neocons then said: Aha, their weapon technology must be so advanced that we can't see it!

It's bad enough as it is, especially if the rebound gets wiped out. I'd rather focus on that than on some imminent catastrophe. I'm not saying a catastrophe isn't imminent, but this isn't the year.
With all due respect, I don't think we really understand the science of the ice at the moment.

I personally have no opinion about the qualty of the broken models you're referring to (I certainly wasn't referring to them) but some people will make low predictions for perfectly rational reasons. Denigrating those  opinions because of the prediction of models that aren't broken isn't necessarily scientific. My point is that all models are broken in these situations. Get used to it.

Discounting them because of physics is of course another matter, as long as you're right.  :)

I speak from bitter experience as a model developer.

S.Pansa

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2327 on: July 21, 2015, 04:51:04 PM »
This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?

But if the conditions were warmer and the parameters indicate that the melt started later - perphaps there is something wrong with the parameters?

I am not saying that's the case, but it is a possiblity.
My impression at least is that the warmth has been chewing into the volume more than in to extent or area (if that makes any sense at all ;-))

Here is for instance the view of TOPAZ4. 2012, 2014 and 2015. First image is  30/06, second image 20/07 - to get an impression of the melt momentum (Warning, images seem to be pretty big so they take quite a time to load).
Here 2012 seems to start out with more volume (measured by the most scientific method known to me - pure eyeballing) - which seems odd or agains PIOMAS - and has the most momentum. But 2015  looks to be not too fare behind momentum-wise & perhaps even worse wrt the ice thickness.
Of course it is just another POV & to be taken with a huge grain of salt imho (ah I just see that they also use the data from the HYCOM model so probably not so much of a difference then).

2012:
2012-06-30
2012-07-20

2014:
2014-30-06
2014-20-07

2015:

2015-30-06
2015-20-07
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 05:39:52 PM by S.Pansa »

AySz88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2328 on: July 21, 2015, 05:01:18 PM »
I also keep on seeing posts talking about heat that is only being generated within the Arctic and that there is not enough left to do the job. That only works out if you have a very strong jet stream that is keeping the Arctic isolated from the rest of the world weather patterns and cool ocean currents running into the Arctic. Under today's conditions even an Arctic low can draw in a lot of heat from its surrounding environment and all that water flowing into the Arctic is all well above average. Not ideal conditions to sustain strong ice and keeping it strong.

I wonder about the cause and effect here. There's already been lower temperature differential between the arctic and temperate latitudes (since the arctic has been heating up faster), and that would seem to generally slow down further heat transport.  That same cause also slows down the jet stream.

Gulf stream is also peeling off further to the south than previously.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2329 on: July 21, 2015, 05:23:27 PM »
This melting season started out slow, despite warmer conditions than in 2013 and 2014. How can the ice possibly be super weak and on the verge of collapse?

But if the conditions were warmer and the parameters indicate that the melt started later - perphaps there is something wrong with the parameters?

I am not saying that's the case, but it is a possiblity.
My impression at least is that the warmth has been chewing into the volume more than in to extent or area (if that makes any sense at all ;-))

Here is for instance the view of TOPAZ4. 2012, 2014 and 2015. First image is  30/06, second image 20/07 - to get an impression of the melt momentum (Warning, images seem to be pretty big so they take quite a time to load).
Here 2012 seems to start out with more volume (measured by the most scientific method known to me - pure eyeballing) - which seems odd or agains PIOMAS - and has the most momentum. But 2015  looks to be not too fare behind momentum-wise & perhaps even worse wrt the ice thickness.
Of course it is just another POV & to be taken with a huge grain of salt imho (ah I just see that they also use the data from the HYCOM model so probably not so much of a different then).

2012:
2012-06-30
2012-07-20

2014:
2014-30-06
2014-20-07

2015:

2015-30-06
2015-20-07

Yes, this is key. We have to wait for the "80 North" bug in HYCOM/CICE to be fixed, until then, any model which takes the problematic outputs as its own input is thus affected by the bug.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2330 on: July 21, 2015, 05:48:13 PM »
Neven, I think the point might be that the models don't know that.

The point is that people shouldn't refer to models that are clearly having problems and then say that 2015 is in a much worse state than 2012, for example.

All this talk reminds me about that story about the neocons who wanted the US to spend more money on defense towards the end of the Cold War. They ordered the CIA to spy on the Russians, but the CIA came back and said that the Soviet Union was about to collapse and didn't have money to maintain their arsenal, let alone build new weapons. The neocons then said: Aha, their weapon technology must be so advanced that we can't see it!

It's bad enough as it is, especially if the rebound gets wiped out. I'd rather focus on that than on some imminent catastrophe. I'm not saying a catastrophe isn't imminent, but this isn't the year.
I agree with Neven, and let me echo his caution.

In 2013 I was just starting to follow the ice seriously and joined these forums actively. I was similarly taken up by my excitement and concern... It still comes out, more than occasionally.  I have learned models are "just" models, and as such I now spend much more time with the satellites and current weather conditions than models.

That's not to say they don't have utility, but it is utility which like weather models reflects probability rather than certainty. Take this from someone who's gotten too excited about them in the past.

Do also heed Nevens worry - it will be bad enough that we just lose the volume built back up over the last two years. We don't need to get into the bottom three for that.
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jai mitchell

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2331 on: July 21, 2015, 06:58:23 PM »
Bearing Straight Sea Surface Temperature Contour Map

link:  http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/beringst.fc.gif

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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2332 on: July 21, 2015, 07:01:12 PM »
An even more dramatic change in four days has been the Antarctic anomaly - now that's a cliff  ;)

Wipneus' independent Antarctic analysis shows a similar "hiatus":

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/antarctic-sea-ice-graphs/

Now back to the Arctic!
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2333 on: July 21, 2015, 07:04:47 PM »
CT has reverted to maps with the "old" ice algorithm, but without the snow of February...

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2334 on: July 21, 2015, 07:26:40 PM »
Is it just me or does this year look much worse compared to 2012?

This model's been showing really unphysical stuff for the past weeks, dont trust it at any rate. 2015 is bad but not as much.
Every thickness model i have seen this year seems to be showing some very strange seemly impossible behaviour. Is it because they have new satellites are are still working out what the numbers really mean? or do we have a case that the ice is in such poor condition that the satellites can not tell what they are looking at?
Or could it be that the models are working fine but the 'ice' just doesn't have the mass we're used to, slush, crusty snow, rotten ice call it what you will. If there is a lot less mass then the impossible could be achieved even with less than ideal [for melt] conditions. Just sayin.

Rotten ice is becoming a bit of a meme round here.

I have looked at 'rotten ice' previously.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/rotten-sea-ice-in-summer.html

The result, using compactness, is that the 'rotten ice' is most apparent in the summer in the Peripheral Seas (Beaufort round to Laptev).

Quote
By late summer, at the Autumn equinox, compactness has fallen from around 0.7 to around 0.5. This means the ratio of area to extent has fallen such that within a grid box where there is ice defined as extent (>0.15 or 15%) one might expect that in the 1980s one would have 3/10 open water. But by the post 2007 period one would expect to see 5/10 open water, or 1/2 open water.

Looking at compactness for the same region right now. It is 0.4992, or half open water, half ice. Sounds alarming? Portends disaster?

Well, no, actually it's in the normal range for recent years.

When I say it is normal I stress that we should not lose track of how it was. Taking 18 July data, I've not got round to downloading more recent data, the 1979 to 1987 average compactness on 18 July was 0.71, or 3/10 open water, 7/10 ice. For the 2007 to 2015 period compactness on 18 July averaged 0.55, or 1/2 open water, 1/2 ice. That is a stunning change, similar to my findings in that blog post for September.

But what of the post 2007 period? Here is the data:

   Comp         Anomaly   StdDevs
2007   0.4729   -0.0721   -1.47
2008   0.5903   0.0453   0.93
2009   0.5696   0.0246   0.50
2010   0.6171   0.0720   1.47
2011   0.5323   -0.0127   -0.26
2012   0.4997   -0.0453   -0.93
2013   0.5372   -0.0079   -0.16
2014   0.5870   0.0420   0.86
2015   0.4992   -0.0459   -0.94

Compactness is the actual compactness for 18 July in the stated years, anom is the difference from the average, and StdDevs is the number of standard deviations away from the average. Note that it is hard to tell the diference between compactness in mid July 2015 and other years, there is no trend to speak of, and at only -0.94 standard deviations this 18 July is low, but not exceptionally so. 2013 alone shows how compactness is not the whole story, in 2013 on 18 July compactness was as near as damn it 1/2, it did not result in a record low, rather the second highest minimum extent for the post 2007 period.

1) There is no indication in ice state, as meaured by compactness, of an iminent crash as the behaviour over the last few years does not show strong deviations from the range of post 2007 behaviour. (This applies equally to other indices)

2) If models were finding a problem with handling this ice (at least PIOMAS is not - it assimilates the gridded concentration from which Wipneus calculates area and extent), then it would apply to the full post 2007 period. We have had 7 summers since 2007, now we're well into the eighth, and if PIOMAS is wrong (overstating thickness) then it's hard to see how this has not yet manifested as a large drop in area or extent.

3) There is a lot of excitement about rotten ice round here, much of it is not founded - I don't want to make myself more unpopular round here, but this is simply the case! This 'rotten ice' will get worse in the years to come, it will play a pivotal role in the coming transition to a seasonally ice free state. But it is not behaving in such a manner as to indicate highly abnormal increase in rotten ice in the context of the post 2007 period portending a rapid crash. Instead the behaviour is pretty average for recent years.

4) However in a longer term context ice state in recent years underscores strongly the highly abnormal state of the pack post 2007, late summer in the peripheral seas has around 1/2 open water, in the first decade of the setallite decade it was only about 1/3 open water. 2015 will add another year to the repertoire of behaviours post 2007. 2015 will add to the data that supports the researcher who coined the term 'The New Arctic', for that is what we are all following.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 07:33:46 PM by ChrisReynolds »

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2335 on: July 21, 2015, 07:53:45 PM »
CT has reverted to maps with the "old" ice algorithm, but without the snow of February...

Vicious cold snap!

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2336 on: July 21, 2015, 08:01:27 PM »
CT has reverted to maps with the "old" ice algorithm, but without the snow of February...

Vicious cold snap!


They had screwed the palette thresholds after all! Or they are now.
Unf*believable.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2337 on: July 21, 2015, 08:05:31 PM »
Is the data behind the average daily temperature graphs north of 80 degrees publicly available?  If so, how would I get it?

It is. FTP from ftp://ftp.dmi.dk/plus80N_temperatureindex/

Ping me if you need older stuff but cannot locate it!
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2338 on: July 21, 2015, 08:21:01 PM »
With all due respect, I don't think we really understand the science of the ice at the moment.

I personally have no opinion about the qualty of the broken models you're referring to (I certainly wasn't referring to them) but some people will make low predictions for perfectly rational reasons. Denigrating those  opinions because of the prediction of models that aren't broken isn't necessarily scientific. My point is that all models are broken in these situations. Get used to it.

Discounting them because of physics is of course another matter, as long as you're right.  :)

I speak from bitter experience as a model developer.

I totally agree, 6roucho, but I'm talking about this melting season (some real-time models are off and giving an erroneous impression of things like volume, salinity and projected concentration, etc), and I believe you're talking about longer-term model output.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2339 on: July 21, 2015, 08:46:55 PM »

The "little" guy at the center is a huge Beaufort MYI floe that has been floating over 6°C + waters (according to DMI model), detached from the main pack, for the last four days, and counting.
 

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2340 on: July 21, 2015, 09:04:58 PM »
And now a reasonably "normal" looking set of temperature profiles for the time of year, from Ice Mass Balance Buoy 2015D, currently located at 86.39 N, 5.49 W:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2015-imbs/#2015D-Temp

The floe core temperature was -2.16 °C on July 15th, so it's still not quite time for significant bottom melt to set in.
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2341 on: July 21, 2015, 09:12:57 PM »
To greatdying2 ---
 Thanks for explanation.

I'm not sure how the 'reply' button works here, so I may have missed something, so just replied here.

I also don't have all the terminology down, so just my layman's view here.

_______________________________
— Yes, volume (area x average depth) is for sure a better measure of the amount of ice than is area. —
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I understand. I just wondered if there could be thinner areas in old ice (not overall volume) that could turn into 'fjords' eating into the ice-pack, and/or areas where it is thinning in the interior that could turn into fissures in the ice-pack. In other words, if there are thinner places, compared to historical data, those could be what really count if it breaks up.
Regarding 'fjords' in the ice, for example, I can see several inroads into the ice pack right now that did not appear at this time in 2012 as far as I can see.

_______________________________
-- But several complications: 1) What the media and therefore public pays attention to is extent (i.e., arbitrarily thresholded area), and public awareness may eventually lead to reduced warming.--

_______________________________

I don' think humans are going to be able to stop the melt now - see my points below. It's too late.

I could be wrong, and you have probably all talked about these already, but I am seeing several factors that were not as significant in 2012 or 2008:

1. The Pacific Blob of warm water is seeping into the Western Arctic and causing that big melt you see there in the image on the left below. That warm water would likely stay near the surface (because it is warmer), and eat around the edges as you see in the image, it is eating around Northern Siberia? there, much more than in 2012. That is the warm water from the Pacific Blob doing that. Once those ice dams that still connect to Northern Russia/Siberia melt, then that warmer water from the Pacific Blob will flow around the ice cap and melt even more. Some warm water from the Atlantic could increase the effect, although I don't know how much that is happening. I think that warm water from the Pacific Blob will be the biggest factor this year, and that the Pacific is never really going to cool down again (sad, but true).

2. The albedo reflection on Greenland seems to be the lowest on record, possibly due to all the fires in Canada and other pollution. I haven't seen a comparable Albedo graph for the Arctic, but it is safe to assume that it would be among the worst on record, as is seen in Greenland, because of all the fires, which are the most on record. This will increase the melt as you know. Worst Albedo decline  ever maybe.

3. Worldwide, every month this year was the warmest month on record (for that month), including June figures just released, and we know that warming occurs most at the poles than elsewhere, so it is logical to assume that the Arctic is in for its warmest summer overall by the end of it.

4. If any individual part of the older ice is thinner than it has ever been, there is a chance of fissures opening up that have not happened in the past, although I don't think that will show up this year, it is still a possibility.

5. All of this is caused by global warming, which is caused by massive pollution, the half of which comes from livestock farming (and the biggest water user in the coming droughts.) Electric cars are not enough :)

Just my random thoughts.

Great discussion going on here folks !
I am learning a lot !

Tommy.



Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2342 on: July 21, 2015, 09:31:02 PM »
...
3) There is a lot of excitement about rotten ice round here, much of it is not founded - I don't want to make myself more unpopular round here, but this is simply the case! This 'rotten ice' will get worse in the years to come, it will play a pivotal role in the coming transition to a seasonally ice free state. But it is not behaving in such a manner as to indicate highly abnormal increase in rotten ice in the context of the post 2007 period portending a rapid crash. Instead the behaviour is pretty average for recent years.
...

I agree, Chris.  We've seen a lot of rotten Arctic sea ice in recent years.

We know a GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone) can do a great deal of damage to sea ice, if 'well' timed.  I wonder, though, what the next 'new' force will be to unexpectedly disappear some ice.  A tsunami? A meteor? 2" of rain? Business as usual?
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2343 on: July 21, 2015, 10:39:20 PM »
...
3) There is a lot of excitement about rotten ice round here, much of it is not founded - I don't want to make myself more unpopular round here, but this is simply the case! This 'rotten ice' will get worse in the years to come, it will play a pivotal role in the coming transition to a seasonally ice free state. But it is not behaving in such a manner as to indicate highly abnormal increase in rotten ice in the context of the post 2007 period portending a rapid crash. Instead the behaviour is pretty average for recent years.
...

I agree, Chris.  We've seen a lot of rotten Arctic sea ice in recent years.

We know a GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone) can do a great deal of damage to sea ice, if 'well' timed.  I wonder, though, what the next 'new' force will be to unexpectedly disappear some ice.  A tsunami? A meteor? 2" of rain? Business as usual?

Business as usual is the most certain bet, we've got plan A (exponential growth) or plan B (exponential growth + greenwash).  ;)

Two graphs, 2015 is the bright red plot...

Compactness in the peripheral seas.



Extent in the peripheral seas.



We're still in the range of past years...

Sorry but these are only to 18 July 2015, not had the time to update.

EDIT
Actually I am up to 19 July, which throws light on those weird plots from CT Area,

Greenbelt/Nightvid/SeaIceSailor.

Compactness for the Central Arctic...
14-Jul   0.787
15-Jul   0.776
16-Jul   0.780
17-Jul   0.780
18-Jul   0.780
19-Jul   0.776

No massive jump in compactness, values before 14 Jul are similar. So that jump in concentration isn't in the data, Wipneus's calculations would have caught it and reflected it as a jump in compactness.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 10:49:38 PM by ChrisReynolds »

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2344 on: July 21, 2015, 11:00:54 PM »
...
3) There is a lot of excitement about rotten ice round here, much of it is not founded - I don't want to make myself more unpopular round here, but this is simply the case! This 'rotten ice' will get worse in the years to come, it will play a pivotal role in the coming transition to a seasonally ice free state. But it is not behaving in such a manner as to indicate highly abnormal increase in rotten ice in the context of the post 2007 period portending a rapid crash. Instead the behaviour is pretty average for recent years.
...

I agree, Chris.  We've seen a lot of rotten Arctic sea ice in recent years.

We know a GAC (Great Arctic Cyclone) can do a great deal of damage to sea ice, if 'well' timed.  I wonder, though, what the next 'new' force will be to unexpectedly disappear some ice.  A tsunami? A meteor? 2" of rain? Business as usual?

Business as usual is the most certain bet, we've got plan A (exponential growth) or plan B (exponential growth + greenwash).  ;)

Two graphs, 2015 is the bright red plot...

Compactness in the peripheral seas.



Extent in the peripheral seas.



We're still in the range of past years...

Sorry but these are only to 18 July 2015, not had the time to update.

EDIT
Actually I am up to 19 July, which throws light on those weird plots from CT Area,

Greenbelt/Nightvid/SeaIceSailor.

Compactness for the Central Arctic...
14-Jul   0.787
15-Jul   0.776
16-Jul   0.780
17-Jul   0.780
18-Jul   0.780
19-Jul   0.776

No massive jump in compactness, values before 14 Jul are similar. So that jump in concentration isn't in the data, Wipneus's calculations would have caught it and reflected it as a jump in compactness.

It's nice to have "algorithmic continuity" back again from CT.  :)

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2345 on: July 21, 2015, 11:21:10 PM »
   Comp         Anomaly   StdDevs
2007   0.4729   -0.0721   -1.47
2008   0.5903   0.0453   0.93
2009   0.5696   0.0246   0.50
2010   0.6171   0.0720   1.47
2011   0.5323   -0.0127   -0.26
2012   0.4997   -0.0453   -0.93
2013   0.5372   -0.0079   -0.16
2014   0.5870   0.0420   0.86
2015   0.4992   -0.0459   -0.94

Three of these years stand out in the table with remarkably low compactness: 2007, 2012, and ...

A question though: Is "rotten ice" just compactness, or is it floes consisting of low quality ice -- i.e., chunks of ice in which the ice itself is riddled with holes or has other flaws that (presumably) reduce its heat of melting?
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2346 on: July 21, 2015, 11:35:32 PM »
   Comp         Anomaly   StdDevs
2007   0.4729   -0.0721   -1.47
2008   0.5903   0.0453   0.93
2009   0.5696   0.0246   0.50
2010   0.6171   0.0720   1.47
2011   0.5323   -0.0127   -0.26
2012   0.4997   -0.0453   -0.93
2013   0.5372   -0.0079   -0.16
2014   0.5870   0.0420   0.86
2015   0.4992   -0.0459   -0.94

Three of these years stand out in the table with remarkably low compactness: 2007, 2012, and ...

A question though: Is "rotten ice" just compactness, or is it floes consisting of low quality ice -- i.e., chunks of ice in which the ice itself is riddled with holes or has other flaws that (presumably) reduce its heat of melting?

I believe it says something about the quality of the ice (of an individual ice floe), rather than of an area of ice floes. But I might be wrong.

Speaking of quality, the ice in the NWP is in a hurry:
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2347 on: July 21, 2015, 11:59:15 PM »

Greenbelt/Nightvid/SeaIceSailor.

Compactness for the Central Arctic...
14-Jul   0.787
15-Jul   0.776
16-Jul   0.780
17-Jul   0.780
18-Jul   0.780
19-Jul   0.776

No massive jump in compactness, values before 14 Jul are similar. So that jump in concentration isn't in the data, Wipneus's calculations would have caught it and reflected it as a jump in compactness.

Thank you Chris. I for myself was genuinely scared yesterday, back to 'normal' .

Villabolo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2348 on: July 22, 2015, 12:07:07 AM »
Would it not be possible to have an icebreaker travel those regions in dispute to directly find out what’s really going on?

And pardon my naiveté but would it not be possible to have someone of high standing like Hansen convince the President to issue a special order for that?

Peter Ellis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2349 on: July 22, 2015, 12:09:11 AM »
... a several week's journey at n million pounds per day in order to find out why a gif on a website is slightly the wrong colour according to the numbers produced by that same website?