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12Patrick

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2550 on: July 25, 2015, 06:51:35 PM »
There is currently a low off the NE coast of Greenland correct?

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2551 on: July 25, 2015, 07:04:48 PM »
Can anyone show me a pic/image from a previous year where that ice has dislodged completely from that area along the Canadian islands?

I can't find any image that shows that big white gap.

Therefore, are we in uncharted territory for that area?

I'm probably missing something.

Most of the time when you think something is unprecedented in the Arctic, it happened before. But not always, of course, especially in these times. And so it's good to keep an eye on the details.

With regards to the ice pack getting detached from the CAA, all it needs is high pressure making winds blow northwards for a prolonged period of time. It happens quite often during winter, but flicking through the Concentration maps on the ASIG, I found August 8th for instance:



But I'm sure there are more instances. As soon as the winds turn, that ice is going back. But if the winds don't turn... Ah, that's when it gets interesting.  :)

« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 07:30:04 PM by Neven »
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2552 on: July 25, 2015, 07:10:15 PM »
Thanks Neven
Your image didn't show up though ?
And I can't see it in the link :-(
Would love to see that image
?
« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 07:18:00 PM by Tommy »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2553 on: July 25, 2015, 07:27:48 PM »
Sorry, Tommy, I keep doing it wrong, linking to images on the ASIG (and then forget what I'm doing wrong). Do you see it now?
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2554 on: July 25, 2015, 07:28:04 PM »
Quote
There is currently a low off the NE coast of Greenland correct?
-- 12Patrick

Yes.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-93.08,84.97,3000
[/quote]

12Patrick

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2555 on: July 25, 2015, 07:35:58 PM »
Once the multiyear thicker ice has broken free from land it is now exposed to the warmer water below it which will melt it quicker from all sides rather than just the side that was exposed to the sea... Currently, the ice that is sitting on top is all broken and fractured.. It looks like it is sitting on top of a blender getting chewed up... Currently with temps like this in the surrounding waters this is sadly the end of the 5 meter thick multi year ice as it will be ground to pieces at the surface and eroded away by the warmer waters below it...Next update at PIOMAS will be interesting for sure.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2556 on: July 25, 2015, 07:38:38 PM »
Quote
Sorry, Tommy, I keep doing it wrong, linking to images on the ASIG (and then forget what I'm doing wrong). Do you see it now?
-- Neven

No :-(
Thanks for trying. I'm off jogging, to get off this couch.
If it is easy, can you try again?
But if it's not easy, no worries. Maybe someone else can help.
Thanks

Sorry, here's the link to the page in question.
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2557 on: July 25, 2015, 07:47:56 PM »
Quote
Sorry, here's the link to the page in question

Ok, it is showing up now.
Thanks Neven.
Makes sense now

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2558 on: July 25, 2015, 07:55:30 PM »
Looks in worse shape now than all the previous Aug. 13th images...

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2559 on: July 25, 2015, 08:13:15 PM »
Quote
But I'm sure there are more instances. As soon as the winds turn, that ice is going back. But if the winds don't turn... Ah, that's when it gets interesting.  :)
- Neven

Thanks for clearing that up Neven, makes sense now.

I thought it was interesting to put the two together side by side.
What do people think of the slightly different concentration levels in these, but slightly different over a very wide area?
It seems less concentrated towards Beaufort in mid-August 2008, but less concentrated everywhere else this year so far?

Patrick's point is interesting.
Quote
Currently, the ice that is sitting on top is all broken and fractured.. It looks like it is sitting on top of a blender getting chewed up...  the 5 meter thick multi year ice as it will be ground to pieces at the surface and eroded away by the warmer waters below it..


« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 08:22:27 PM by Tommy »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2560 on: July 25, 2015, 09:02:52 PM »
Patrick's point is interesting.
Quote
Currently, the ice that is sitting on top is all broken and fractured.. It looks like it is sitting on top of a blender getting chewed up...  the 5 meter thick multi year ice as it will be ground to pieces at the surface and eroded away by the warmer waters below it..

The main question is (for the final result of this melting season): Will the blender chew it all up?

That goes for the entire low concentration region that's yellow and green on UB SIC maps.
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2008 and 2015 Thickness and Concentration Combined
« Reply #2561 on: July 25, 2015, 09:17:31 PM »
Oh My God !

Thanks Neven!

If I have got this right,
In the top image I have deleted ice above about 1m thick, and deleted that from concentration map from 13 Aug 2008, and deleted ice above about 60& concentration from the thickness map on that day, and combined the two, filled deleted areas with sea blue -- as if areas below 1m and below 60% concentration are gone.

Ok, there is 3 weeks difference here, the 2008 image from August 13th, but I can't see anything like that happening in these combined maps for this year in 2015?
Does anyone think 2015 could look like that 2008 combined image I made, within 3 weeks or a month?

Wow.

I'll put the source images for the two 2008 images so that you can see why, when you take out ice below a metre, and ice under 60% concentration, and combine them, that is what you get.


« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 02:34:13 AM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2562 on: July 25, 2015, 09:20:22 PM »
Here are the untouched source images for the 13 August 2008 so that people can see why it became like that when I combined the two, taking out ice below 1m thick, and below 60% concentration.
Did I do something wrong?
Tommy
« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 09:29:54 PM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2563 on: July 25, 2015, 09:39:26 PM »
1. Now that all that thickest ice has dislodged from the coast, where will it go?
Or will it just float back in to the coast in a couple of weeks?

Yes.

Quote
2. Does red represent the oldest ice. or just the most bunched up, piling up over a few years?

Probably both.

My takeaway from the various animations I've looked at is that the thick ice on top of the Archipelago has a strong tendency to either flow into the Beaufort along with the Beaufort Gyre, or get blown out through the Fram.  It seems to me that, these days, the thick ice there is more a result of compression and compaction than of aging.  There does seem to be some recirculation of thick ice through the Beaufort Gyre and back into the Archipelago Wall.

e.g.

But, hey, my eyes are easily fooled...

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2564 on: July 25, 2015, 09:40:21 PM »
Quote
Does anyone think 2015 could look like that 2008 combined image I made, within 3 weeks or a month?

That depends on how reliable the DMI thickness model is.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2565 on: July 25, 2015, 09:51:29 PM »
Quote
That depends on how reliable the DMI thickness model is.
-- Neven


Yes, I was wondering about that.
It seems more conservative than other models I have looked at - shows ice thicker than others (but I haven't seen a lot). And I wonder if the colors have changed over the years.
If these maps are somewhat accurate, and the colors haven't changed, that combination for 2008  really says a lot I think, and clears up a lot of things.

I'll make one a week, to see how the combo map changes over the next 3 weeks or more.

Thanks for posting that image Neven, I had looked everywhere for similar.


Cesium61
And thanks for the answer about the thick ice as well.
That video is great to see !


Tommy


« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 02:39:08 AM by Tommy »

Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2566 on: July 25, 2015, 11:29:19 PM »
Something that Andreas Muenchow mentioned elsewhere which could be more significant than the "crunching" of the ice along the canadian archipelago north coast is that the movement away from the coast produces upwelling of water. The question is how strong that is and how deep that reaches i.e. whether it might increase mixing of warmer water below the halocline towards the surface.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2567 on: July 25, 2015, 11:58:42 PM »
Tommy, just do it with just the 5 meter ice not the 1 meter ice or greater and see what you get???

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2568 on: July 26, 2015, 12:56:08 AM »
I thought it was interesting to put the two together side by side.
What do people think of the slightly different concentration levels in these, but slightly different over a very wide area?
It seems less concentrated towards Beaufort in mid-August 2008, but less concentrated everywhere else this year so far?
July has been really warm in the CAB so I believe that the lower concentration might reflect surface melt and lead openings. Before August 13 perhaps in 2008 CAB had not been so warm, or by then it had had time to refreeze a bit


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2569 on: July 26, 2015, 01:16:42 AM »
Following my earlier comments on the blog, I think it’s interesting to continue over here with new graphic info on the July melt month.

This is the 3-day temp anomaly on NCEP/NCAR for 21 to 23 July:



The large +4dC N of Ellesmere, present during the first 16 July days, has shifted to the SW. It lined up with a >+5dC island of warmth over the Eastern part of the CAA. Together with another warm spot over the ESS coast, this continues a July warmth period that wasn’t even produced during 2012.

ECMWF forecasts the general situation to last, as seen below on the one week out graph for next Saturday. When this comes to pass, compaction may well be expected in the Pacific sector as well as further melt and break-up in the channels through the CAA.



oren

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Re: 2008 and 2015 Thickness and Concentration Combined
« Reply #2570 on: July 26, 2015, 01:22:15 AM »
Oh My God !

Thanks Neven!

If I have got this right,
In the top image I have deleted ice above about 1m thick from concentration map from 13 Aug 2008, and deleted ice above about 60& concentration from the thickness map on that day, and combined the two, filled deleted areas with sea blue -- as if areas below 1m and below 60% concentration are gone.

Ok, there is 3 weeks difference here, the 2008 image from August 13th, but I can't see anything like that happening in these combined maps for this year in 2015?
Does anyone think 2015 could look like that 2008 combined image I made, within 3 weeks or a month?

Wow.

I'll put the source images for the two 2008 images so that you can see why, when you take out ice below a metre, and ice under 60% concentration, and combine them, that is what you get.

Tommy I believe that the Aug combination that you are making is less useful physically than the combination for the current date.
As I understand it very simplistically, ice less than 1m thick and/or ice of less than 60% concentration, seen on the current date of end-July, is expected to disappear by the end of the melt season. Therefore combining and showing the ice that is >1m thick and >60% concentration makes a lot of sense as an approximation of where the surviving ice will be at minimum.
However, on Aug 13th 3 weeks from now I believe the odds are quite different. I suppose >0.5m thick and >30% concentration are more appropriate than 1m and 60%, when trying to predict which ice will survive the season. (I'm just throwing these numbers up in the air based on intuition).

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2571 on: July 26, 2015, 02:10:12 AM »
Quote
I suppose >0.5m thick and >30% concentration are more appropriate than 1m and 60%, when trying to predict which ice will survive the season. (I'm just throwing these numbers up in the air based on intuition).
-- oren

I agree,
Thanks for the tip.
I just chose those numbers as a guess. I thought the one metre might be a bit high when deleting, but I am a bit bias because I feel that there are multiple more, or stronger, factors affecting melt this year than in previous years, but maybe not.
And that 60% may be a bit high, so I was hoping that would compensate for my disdain for 1m ice  :).
So it makes sense what you are saying.
It's getting pretty easy for me to do these now, so I might try both, once or twice a week.
That way, by the end of the season, it might give an idea of which is more accurate.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Tommy.


« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 02:27:24 AM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2572 on: July 26, 2015, 02:27:00 AM »
Quote
Tommy, just do it with just the 5 meter ice not the 1 meter ice or greater and see what you get???
12Patrick

Hi Patrick, thanks for suggestion. 
I tried it on the 13 Aug. 2008 version above, and it just leaves those little pink and red spots you see on the Thickness maps, because 5m ice is seldom heavily broken up into pieces, with a lot of open water, so it's pretty easy to see those pink and reds on the thickness maps which is all that would be left, even with taking out everything below an ever higher 90% concentration, instead of my usual 60%
I'll keep trying different things, and make a map for this season once or twice a week, just for fun.
Thanks
Tommy
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 02:33:23 AM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2573 on: July 26, 2015, 03:32:51 AM »
So after this year we may not see multiyear 5 meter thick ice again Untill the next ice age.. All those Red dots will be gone....

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2574 on: July 26, 2015, 03:52:48 AM »

Quote
So after this year we may not see multiyear 5 meter thick ice again Until the next ice age..
-- 12Patrick

I'm not sure, because ice can pile up and grow in 10 years I think.
But, I have no doubt that all the ice will be thinner in the coming years, and very little 5m ice left soon after. It seems the pressures of movement naturally pile the ice up at the northern tip of Greenland and along the Canadian islands, so maybe it will be the last to go, when all the rest has melted, which at the rate humans are going, and the exponential heating that scientists keep coming out with every few months in new studies on air temps, sea temps, etc. that they keep saying are worse than they're previous predictions ... I am afraid the medium and thin Arctic ice is toast in the next few years (not decades).
Tommy


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2575 on: July 26, 2015, 03:55:54 AM »
Is this algae deep on the surface or is that crystal clear Arctic ocean with algae deeper down?
From todays satellite. Towards  NE Russia, near those islands out in that part of ocean

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/algae.jpg

.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 05:58:17 AM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2576 on: July 26, 2015, 03:56:10 AM »
Incremental losses throughout the Arctic Basin in the U. Bremen update.

In the Laptev Sea, a second incursion of bare ocean appears to be opening up inside 80 degrees N, to the left of the existing one and in an area where I had suggested weakness in a recent post.


Can now compare with Neven's display of the concentration maps for previous years as he has one set up for 25 July:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0725


Imo 2015 is definitely closer to those years with the lower minimum extents: 2007, 2011 and 2012.

Attached below is the .gif. Click to flash also to yesterday's map:
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 04:06:37 AM by slow wing »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2577 on: July 26, 2015, 04:51:48 AM »

Those dmi volume graphics are total shit.

It's amazing the overall volume is close when the spatial distribution of thickness is total shit.

Useless. 




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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2578 on: July 26, 2015, 04:53:59 AM »
Sachs harbor has been reporting Southerly winds and high DPS advecting directly into the Western CAB for days.   The ice there is being demolished.                   









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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2579 on: July 26, 2015, 04:56:01 AM »
Incremental losses throughout the Arctic Basin in the U. Bremen update.

In the Laptev Sea, a second incursion of bare ocean appears to be opening up inside 80 degrees N, to the left of the existing one and in an area where I had suggested weakness in a recent post.


Can now compare with Neven's display of the concentration maps for previous years as he has one set up for 25 July:

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0725


Imo 2015 is definitely closer to those years with the lower minimum extents: 2007, 2011 and 2012.

Attached below is the .gif. Click to flash also to yesterday's map:

I love the Breman graphics because of the hires.

But the entire Western CAB and Beaufort to 78/80N is really like 30-60% concentration.

Clouds skew channel 89ghz so easily.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2580 on: July 26, 2015, 05:04:31 AM »
Quote
But I'm sure there are more instances. As soon as the winds turn, that ice is going back. But if the winds don't turn... Ah, that's when it gets interesting.  :)
- Neven

Thanks for clearing that up Neven, makes sense now.

I thought it was interesting to put the two together side by side.
What do people think of the slightly different concentration levels in these, but slightly different over a very wide area?
It seems less concentrated towards Beaufort in mid-August 2008, but less concentrated everywhere else this year so far?

Patrick's point is interesting.
Quote
Currently, the ice that is sitting on top is all broken and fractured.. It looks like it is sitting on top of a blender getting chewed up...  the 5 meter thick multi year ice as it will be ground to pieces at the surface and eroded away by the warmer waters below it..

Perfect  example above.



That's silly how much it changed from a Lil vortex clouds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2581 on: July 26, 2015, 05:08:35 AM »

Quote
So after this year we may not see multiyear 5 meter thick ice again Until the next ice age..


I'm not sure, because ice can pile up and grow in 10 years I think.
But, I have no doubt that all the ice will be thinner in the coming years, and very little 5m ice left soon after. It seems the pressures of movement naturally pile the ice up at the northern tip of Greenland and along the Canadian islands, so maybe it will be the last to go, when all the rest has melted, which at the rate humans are going, and the exponential heating that scientists keep coming out with every few months in new studies on air temps, sea temps, etc. that they keep saying are worse than they're previous predictions ... I am afraid the medium and thin Arctic ice is toast in the next few years (not decades).
Tommy
  Correct my Tunnel idea gets it back in 10 years...

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2582 on: July 26, 2015, 06:32:18 AM »
Is this algae deep on the surface or is that crystal clear Arctic ocean with algae deeper down?
From todays satellite. Towards  NE Russia, near those islands out in that part of ocean

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/algae.jpg

.


Which has more albedo, open water or green algae?

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2583 on: July 26, 2015, 08:38:01 AM »
This is very short and weak cool down.


And transient over small regions. 


The primary -NAO/-AO pattern barely even breaks down before it quickly dominates again and heights build back through the CAB towards Alaska




In the meantime the Russian side where the thin FYI is located is clearing out and getting strong WAA.






Its only July 26th.  That entire arm of ice from the ESS to the Laptev bulge will melt out.

Unless a cold pattern takes over which means a dipole.

Either way South of 80N is very vulnerable everywhere
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2584 on: July 26, 2015, 10:20:33 AM »
A fairly clear view of the burgeoning "Laptev Bite" this morning, also visible in Friv's image above:

http://1.usa.gov/1S38nYZ

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2585 on: July 26, 2015, 10:44:44 AM »
Heat uptake has been huge the last week.




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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2586 on: July 26, 2015, 12:49:41 PM »
Nightvid, Nick, Slow Wing:Those visible satellite colors look way off to me.  I think there's a lot of algae in ice in those images.  Dark colors are normal, but not that particular slightly green blackish tint.




The earlier Healy aloftcon images have hardly any algae in them.  As they get newer there's more and more.  It's all over the place now.

What was the albedo of sea ice again?

12Patrick

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2587 on: July 26, 2015, 02:02:03 PM »
Looks like soot from all the fires burning or particulates from fossil fuels... Need to sample...

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2588 on: July 26, 2015, 02:09:35 PM »
Is this algae deep on the surface or is that crystal clear Arctic ocean with algae deeper down?
From todays satellite. Towards  NE Russia, near those islands out in that part of ocean

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/algae.jpg

.


It's close to the surface. Blue-green algae can't live as far below the surface as red algae.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2589 on: July 26, 2015, 02:14:39 PM »
Nightvid, Nick, Slow Wing:Those visible satellite colors look way off to me.  I think there's a lot of algae in ice in those images.  Dark colors are normal, but not that particular slightly green blackish tint.

The satellite photos show similar greenish-brown color to the Healy ones - but noticeably more saturated in the Healy photos. Try boosting saturation to the max in Photoshop or Gimp to verify this.

Then again, the Healy photos wouldn't be as vivid if you couldn't see the most colorful details. Each pixel of the satellite image reflects the average color of the area it corresponds to, and a single pixel corresponds to a bigger area than everything you see in the Healy photos. 

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2590 on: July 26, 2015, 03:30:23 PM »
One of the 5 or 6 factors I think make 2015 different than previous years (as others here have said).
And the Arctic warms faster than rest of world (maybe there is a lag time, but still, this must make a difference maybe towards end of season.)

Jan-June - red bar on right - hottest on record, globally.

Report for June global temps just released this week:
NOAA
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201506
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 03:45:34 PM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2591 on: July 26, 2015, 03:38:13 PM »
Quote
It's close to the surface. Blue-green algae can't live as far below the surface as red algae.
-- Night Vid.

Thanks. It looks so 3D, like it goes deep, but just an optical illusion I guess.
It's so huge!


Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2592 on: July 26, 2015, 04:01:19 PM »

And the Arctic warms faster than rest of world (maybe there is a lag time, but still, this must make a difference maybe towards end of season.)


There isn't exactly a one-way relationship. At some point in the year, the Arctic (which contributes to the global temperature) warms because the ice's capacity as an isothermal heat sink is exceeded. As the Arctic approaches ice-free Septembers, this will be more obvious.

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2593 on: July 26, 2015, 04:40:50 PM »
Quote
there has been a stain on the surface north of Greenland extending to the West since this last clear view on the 16th, probably darkening and moving to the West a little since then.
-- Nick_Naylor

Hi Nick, yes, I have noticed that.
There is another one south west of that big one that comes off the Atlantic.
I thought it might be just where the churning ice-cap and thinner ice from the NE, meets it's better half at the top of Greenland, and creates a fault line?
Or, just where the Atlantic meets the ice, thinner ice is created due to warming waters, and slowly is tansported in a line, but seems wrong direction?

But it is a bit thinner than surroundings I think, due to highlights on 'craters.'
Algae embedded?

Anyone know what that is?

(and thanks for answer on Global Temps above Nick)

« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 05:51:25 PM by Tommy »

Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2594 on: July 26, 2015, 05:22:26 PM »
Quote
there has been a stain on the surface north of Greenland extending to the West since this last clear view on the 16th, probably darkening and moving to the West a little since then.
-- Nick_Naylor

Hi Nick, yes, I have noticed that.
There is another one south west of that big one that comes off the Atlantic.
I thought it might be just where the churning ice-cap and thinner ice from the NE, meets it's better half at the top of Greenland, and creates a fault line?
Or, just where the Atlantic meets the ice, thinner ice is created due to warming waters, and slowly is tansported in a line?
I think it's just dirty water from the Atlantic slowly embedding and moving up?
But it is a bit thinner than surroundings I think, due to highlights on 'craters.'
Algae embedded?

Anyone know what that is?

(and thanks for answer on Global Temps above Nick)
This may seem a quibble but it helps to use specific words for specific things. Ice caps are ice accumulations which cover the summit of a high point on land or form such a high point themselves (Greenland), since the north pole is not actually "the top of the world" the ice covering it is not an ice cap.
The ice in those dark bands north of Greenland most likely was initially formed along the coast of Siberia and then made its way across on the transpolar drift.  I think this is algae which froze into the ice at a time of particularly strong growth or found suitable conditions later when sunlight and nutrients gave it better growth than in surrounding ice.

iceman

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2595 on: July 26, 2015, 05:33:41 PM »
     The dynamic is noteworthy, though - a lot of those high-concentration MYI patches will become stranded in open water before the minimum.  Don't think I've seen that phenomenon before on this scale.
Closest looks to be 2006, where an "arm" of older ice in the Beaufort managed to hang on right to the end of the melt season despite melt-out of newer ice nearer the Pole.
http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=09&fd=15&fy=2006&sm=09&sd=06&sy=2006
Good find.  You seem to have the two dates close to the regional minimum, which indicates the "arm" never completely broke off from the main pack, according to CT.  A similar feature could develop this year, though HYCOM and CCI Reanalyzer are hinting at a sizable detachment of a different section of ice toward the SE of Beaufort.

As much as I dont know whether MYI in Beaufort will survive or not, this 2006 example tells me 2015 chances are priori much higher for total melt out
Right image is 7/22/2015
True enough, though pre-2007 was a different regime in the Arctic.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2596 on: July 26, 2015, 06:04:37 PM »
I'm thinking that this is the first 'post 2012' melt season where 'average' ( on the whole?) conditions hit the basin?

As such the 'new' multiyear ice' will be taken through a significant melt cycle and not the 'sparing seasons' we saw in 13/14'?

I still think that 'new' multiyear, thickened mainly by slabbing?, will decay in a different way to the 'old arctic' Multi year ice esp. after it had already weathered 2 summers ( swiss cheese ice?) It will also  have basal algal inclusions from the slabbing leading to differing albedo of the ice mass?
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2597 on: July 26, 2015, 06:06:44 PM »
Quote
This may seem a quibble but it helps to use specific words for specific things. Ice caps are ice accumulations which cover the summit of a high point on land or form such a high point themselves (Greenland), since the north pole is not actually "the top of the world" the ice covering it is not an ice cap.
--Andreas T

Thanks.
Yes, just a newbie to the arctic.
I almost always say 'ice-pack' so it was just a slip of the tongue.

Quote
The ice in those dark bands north of Greenland most likely was initially formed along the coast of Siberia and then made its way across on the transpolar drift.  I think this is algae which froze into the ice at a time of particularly strong growth or found suitable conditions later when sunlight and nutrients gave it better growth than in surrounding ice.

That makes total sense.
I wonder why they seem indented (zooming in on Worldview shows slight highlights, like shallow craters. Maybe not.)

Tommy.
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 09:36:20 PM by Tommy »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2598 on: July 26, 2015, 07:52:45 PM »
This is very short and weak cool down.

And transient over small regions.

Indeed, Friv!

ECMWF, or Euro as you call it, is looking particularly exciting, with the high pressure swinging from Siberia back round to Greenland and the CAA again. That forecast is not too far out, and the model has been moving towards it for 3 days now (meaning that something like it will probably come about):
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2599 on: July 26, 2015, 07:55:19 PM »

This may seem a quibble but it helps to use specific words for specific things. Ice caps are ice accumulations which cover the summit of a high point on land or form such a high point themselves (Greenland), since the north pole is not actually "the top of the world" the ice covering it is not an ice cap.


This one I can't restrain myself ... my turn to quibble :)

Andreas, I have been taught since primary school that Arctic ice is an ice cap, more especifically its perennial (and ever smaller) component.

I learnt that in a language different than English, but I always thought it is so in English too. Like here:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_ice_cap

Ice sheet for instance sounds wrong for Arctic ice. It probably is just a matter of scientific convention after all.