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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2600 on: July 26, 2015, 08:13:01 PM »

This may seem a quibble but it helps to use specific words for specific things. Ice caps are ice accumulations which cover the summit of a high point on land or form such a high point themselves (Greenland), since the north pole is not actually "the top of the world" the ice covering it is not an ice cap.


This one I can't restrain myself ... my turn to quibble :)

Andreas, I have been taught since primary school that Arctic ice is an ice cap, more especifically its perennial (and ever smaller) component.


Me too, and I learned in English. To quote NASA's site: "The sea ice cap of the Arctic appeared to reach its annual maximum winter extent on Feb. 25 . . . "

https://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/2015-arctic-sea-ice-maximum-annual-extent-is-lowest-on-record

I have no doubt there are purists who cannot accept this usage, but I'm inclined to.

Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2601 on: July 26, 2015, 08:52:03 PM »
I have to admit that I didn't check wikipedia etc, my opinion is based on learning about ice caps on ellesmere and baffin island. These ice caps are formed by snow fall at the top like a glacier but have a summit which doesn't move.
Clearly this is a very different thing from the sea ice floating on an ocean, so why use the same word for it? I don't think of the arctic sea ice as a single thing, "the ice cap" I could live without having such a word for it so I agree that ice sheet is not an alternative. But, that is my opinion and language is for communication,its no good using words in ways people don't understand.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2602 on: July 26, 2015, 08:55:50 PM »
Please, allow me to join the off-topic. It's not a continuous sheet/cap, it's an ice pack of individual floes.
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2603 on: July 26, 2015, 09:19:34 PM »
I have to admit that I didn't check wikipedia etc, my opinion is based on learning about ice caps on ellesmere and baffin island. These ice caps are formed by snow fall at the top like a glacier but have a summit which doesn't move.
Clearly this is a very different thing from the sea ice floating on an ocean, so why use the same word for it? I don't think of the arctic sea ice as a single thing, "the ice cap" I could live without having such a word for it so I agree that ice sheet is not an alternative. But, that is my opinion and language is for communication,its no good using words in ways people don't understand.

Makes sense.

Please, allow me to join the off-topic. It's not a continuous sheet/cap, it's an ice pack of individual floes.

Makes sense too.

Ok with pack, it is the most common denomination for ice as is mobile and deformable, but just wanted to note a use that is or was correct.
I agree ice cap sounds as rigid as the Arctic looked in my school textbook from the 80's

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2604 on: July 26, 2015, 09:22:45 PM »
To totally abuse Lewis Carroll:
“. . . the Knight said in an anxious tone: “Let me tell you about something to comfort you.”
“Will it take very long?” Alice asked, for she had heard about a good deal of science that day. “It's long,” said the Knight, “but it's very, very beautiful. Everybody that hears me talk about it - either it brings the tears to their eyes, or else -” “Or else what?” said Alice, for the Knight had made a sudden pause. “Or else it doesn't, you know. The name of the thing is called ‘The Arctic Ice Cap.’” “Oh, that's the name of the thing, is it?" Alice said, trying to feel interested. “No, you don't understand,” the Knight said, looking a little vexed. “That's what the name is called. The name really is ‘The Arctic Ice Field.’” “Then I ought to have said ‘That's what the thing is called’?” Alice corrected herself. “No, you oughtn't: that's quite another thing! The thing itself is called ‘The Arctic Ice Pack’: but that's only what it's called, you know!” “Well, what is this thing, then?” said Alice, who was by this time completely bewildered. “I was coming to that,” the Knight said. “The thing really is ‘The Canary in the Coalmine’.”

Tensor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2605 on: July 26, 2015, 09:22:53 PM »
I think "cap" (Ice, polar, etc)  came about as an analogy for something covering the top of a head.  Much like the ice covers the top (I know, Northern Hemisphere bias) of the world.
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2606 on: July 26, 2015, 09:51:22 PM »
I like how the northeast off Greenland is like a big eddy, swirling around in circles, I planted a flag on my iceberg friend there ... and slowly watched his sad demise :-(
(this is from the last couple of weeks, with cloudy days taken out)

http://satwagraphics.com/testing/eddy_flag.gif
« Last Edit: July 26, 2015, 10:16:15 PM by Tommy »

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2607 on: July 26, 2015, 09:53:54 PM »
Nice, Tommy. What happened to the flag?  ;)

And nice website too.  :)
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2608 on: July 26, 2015, 10:01:54 PM »
Quote
Neven
Nice, Tommy. What happened to the flag?  ;)

Whale ate it.

Quote
And nice website too.  :)

Thanks !
(still working on it, slowly,)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2609 on: July 27, 2015, 03:30:39 AM »
I hope virtual red flags aren't as bad for the environment (and whale bellies) as man-made plastic.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2610 on: July 27, 2015, 04:13:02 AM »
Unfortunately, "ice cap' is not a scientific term, and I have seen it used in different ways.  Indeed, definitions found via Google are not consistent, although it seems that more refer to an ice cap as ice on land.  But - try to convince someone who is talking about the "Arctic ice cap" that they are wrong if they are talking about sea ice.   

The "polar ice caps" are generally used to describe the Antarctic ice sheets and Arctic sea ice...(I have even seen the term"polar sea ice cap" used.)

The "great northern and southern hemisphere ice caps" are the Antarctic ice sheets and the Greenland ice sheet. 

I try to use the terms "ice sheets", "sea ice", and "glaciers" and avoid using the term "ice cap".

So in this thread, we talk about Arctic sea ice, and the Greenland ice sheet and glaciers.   

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2611 on: July 27, 2015, 04:51:41 AM »
Another day of losses in the peripheral Arctic seas in front of Alaska and Siberia.

Wherever the ice pack is on the move, the leading edge is seen to be nibbled away as it moves over open water. This emphasises the importance of winds for ice loss at this time of year (along with ocean currents).


Click on .gif for flashes back to yesterday's map...

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2612 on: July 27, 2015, 05:57:11 AM »
I always say 'ice-pack", I had a slip of the tongue yesterday, never even thought about it.
When I talk about this stuff on my Facebook page I am much more careful about using the right terminology on there, than I am here for some reason, maybe because I expect people here to understand without perfect terminology all the time. On my Facebook page I am more careful, with tons of posts there from the past (and here) using the term "ice-pack"

Ice-pack is the most descriptive, because, especially now, it is a big pack of ice cubes all smooshed together floating around in the Arctic Ocean. This year, or in some year soon, it will be floating free and wandering around ... just a big pack of iceburgs packed in together from time to time.

An Icepack.

Tommy

« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 06:07:20 AM by Tommy »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2613 on: July 27, 2015, 06:10:03 AM »
Better look up the word iceberg! There are very few icebergs in the Arctic Ocean these days. 
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2614 on: July 27, 2015, 06:13:17 AM »
Quote
slow wing
Another day of losses in the peripheral Arctic seas in front of Alaska and Siberia.

That's a big change in the west there. A good way to look at it with that gif.
I am surprised that the 100% concentration could jump so far so much. The measuring systems are far from perfect, so that's probably it. Is there any other reason the biggest concentration (dark purple) could jump so far in one day?


Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2615 on: July 27, 2015, 06:22:35 AM »
Quote
Better look up the word iceberg! There are very few icebergs in the Arctic Ocean these days.
- Tor Bejnar

There are no icecubes either, but I still used it in my post above, and I am very proud of that.  :)

I'm just going to call it 'The Big Bear' from now on. 
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 06:50:36 AM by Tommy »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2616 on: July 27, 2015, 08:38:48 AM »
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not), its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.
Image cropped from image courtesy of Wipneus

2nd image from the 20th
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 08:57:10 AM by seaicesailor »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2617 on: July 27, 2015, 09:02:36 AM »
I think "cap" (Ice, polar, etc)  came about as an analogy for something covering the top of a head.  Much like the ice covers the top (I know, Northern Hemisphere bias) of the world.
From the Latin caput. Which is appropriate.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2618 on: July 27, 2015, 10:20:30 AM »
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not), its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.
Image cropped from image courtesy of Wipneus

2nd image from the 20th

I hope we get another good peek from the satellites, but it's going to stay cloudy for a while longer.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2619 on: July 27, 2015, 10:46:54 AM »
My first impression looking at EOSDIS today is that the Siberian side of the Arctic is collapsing today.  There seems to be a lot more open water and the floes seem smaller compared to  yesterday.  But that may disappear as the images are finalised.   
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2620 on: July 27, 2015, 11:30:05 AM »
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not), its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.
Image cropped from image courtesy of Wipneus

2nd image from the 20th

The little burg has become a puff. The brother is still keeping up appearances.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2621 on: July 27, 2015, 11:41:14 AM »
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not), its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.
Image cropped from image courtesy of Wipneus

2nd image from the 20th

The little burg has become a puff. The brother is still keeping up appearances.

Nevertheless it is instructive to see how resilient MYI in Beaufort is compared to how Laptev bite has been advancing in no time! ( and kind of cold was the weather there)

The ESS thing is amazing. Drift was expected but the edge is retreating twice as fast (or so it looks).

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2622 on: July 27, 2015, 12:59:50 PM »
Quote
slow wing
Another day of losses in the peripheral Arctic seas in front of Alaska and Siberia.

That's a big change in the west there. A good way to look at it with that gif.
I am surprised that the 100% concentration could jump so far so much. The measuring systems are far from perfect, so that's probably it. Is there any other reason the biggest concentration (dark purple) could jump so far in one day?
It's an artifact of the clouds. In reality, it didn't happen.

If you examine an even longer series of these Bremen concentration maps, you'll see dark purple waves (clouds --  the position of which you can verify with Worldview) sweep quickly over the underlying colour pattern (the reality).

July 23rd was cloudless in the Beaufort area so the Bremen concentration map gives a more accurate idea of the real state of the ice in that area.

July 23: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2015/jul/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20150723-v5_nic.png
Archive: http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2623 on: July 27, 2015, 04:03:11 PM »
Quote
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not),
seaicesailor

It's my Scottish accent ( I now live within the wonderful Polar Vortex in America, perfect summers, great skiing in winter, thanks to global warming.)

Quote
its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.

That little guy with the flag was toast by yesterday. Not sure about the others. Cloudy  :(
I know it looks like it's still there at the end, but that's because I had to chop out cloudy days at the end there, and that other one at the end, is a different ice-block. The final flag is what happened to the first one
It's is amazing how many of those little icebergs have the same shape.

I hope we get some clear views soon.
( I originally said, "I hope the sun comes out soon up there.", but changed it because with the low Albedo effect this year, we probably should wish for clouds not sun, if we don't want the Arctic to melt too much this year)



« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 04:46:35 PM by Tommy »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2624 on: July 27, 2015, 04:08:48 PM »

Quote
It's an artifact of the clouds. In reality, it didn't happen.
If you examine an even longer series of these Bremen concentration maps, you'll see dark purple waves (clouds --  the position of which you can verify with Worldview) sweep quickly over the underlying colour pattern (the reality).
greatdying2

Aha, that makes sense. Thanks.

Does anyone know where is the best place to see daily updates of sea surface temps in the Arctic?
I can't find it.

iceman

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2625 on: July 27, 2015, 04:21:09 PM »

Nevertheless it is instructive to see how resilient MYI in Beaufort is ....

HYCOM's forecast of a sizable detachment of ice toward the SE of Beaufort is becoming more definite.  I don't see much sign of it from other sources, but it could become more apparent after a few days of divergent winds there.
      If it happens it would accelerate volume loss in Beaufort.  The area would probably be less than the Laptev Lobe, though the two combined might rival the huge detachment caused by the 2012 cyclone.
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2626 on: July 27, 2015, 04:22:22 PM »
I know I should post this in the Greenland thread, but not sure I can handle two discussions :-)

I think this shows a big difference at this time of year, although I am not sure, because they seem to indicate that it shows relative change from previous average or something.

So if it's like this in Greenland, it's likely something similar in Arctic ( Is there a place that shows albedo for the Arctic daily? )
Plus if there is more melt in Greenland (because increased heat absorption on the surface), the melt water could affect Arctic, plus cause more attrition in the icepack at that NE  corner of Greenland, especially since I heard a scientist say that the North of Greenland is melting much faster than previously expected.

It looks like they will need new colors for the low albedo ( I think someone pointed that out earlier)

I guess I didn't get the exact same days, but this below is from around this date 2014 compared to 2015 on the right.

( from : http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ )
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 04:38:21 PM by Tommy »

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2627 on: July 27, 2015, 04:57:06 PM »
 ... and here is some of that melt and meltponds in NE Greenland -- July 24.
It's a big blue patch of ice up there on WorldView,
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 11:58:53 PM by Tommy »

mati

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2628 on: July 27, 2015, 05:35:03 PM »
30 C + heat wave hitting eastern canada this week, not sure how far north the heat will travel...
and so it goes

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2629 on: July 27, 2015, 05:51:53 PM »
I know I should post this in the Greenland thread, but not sure I can handle two discussions :-)

I think this shows a big difference at this time of year, although I am not sure, because they seem to indicate that it shows relative change from previous average or something.

So if it's like this in Greenland, it's likely something similar in Arctic ( Is there a place that shows albedo for the Arctic daily? )
Plus if there is more melt in Greenland (because increased heat absorption on the surface), the melt water could affect Arctic, plus cause more attrition in the icepack at that NE  corner of Greenland, especially since I heard a scientist say that the North of Greenland is melting much faster than previously expected.

It looks like they will need new colors for the low albedo ( I think someone pointed that out earlier)

I guess I didn't get the exact same days, but this below is from around this date 2014 compared to 2015 on the right.

( from : http://polarportal.dk/en/groenlands-indlandsis/nbsp/isens-overflade/ )

gis has permanent dark particles embedded on the glacier in the bare ice.


The arctic wouldn't have that.


Once snow melts on gis and that darkness is shown albedo Plummets way below what just bare ice would do.



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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2630 on: July 27, 2015, 05:55:35 PM »
According to DMI, 2015 volume has reached the 2013 minimum with nearly a month to go, having already fallen below 2014 minimum.

Only 2008 and 2012 were lower on this date. For what it's worth :)

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2631 on: July 27, 2015, 06:05:56 PM »
Does anyone know where is the best place to see daily updates of sea surface temps in the Arctic?
I can't find it.
Don't know if it's the best, but I use DMI: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php .
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2632 on: July 27, 2015, 07:03:10 PM »
Is the little ice-burg (nice word correct or not), its greater brother below and the guys around finally showing signs of disintegration? Its been stormy last three days.
No visual.
Image cropped from image courtesy of Wipneus

2nd image from the 20th

The little burg has become a puff. The brother is still keeping up appearances.

Are we going to start talking about ice-villes too?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burg

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2633 on: July 27, 2015, 07:21:10 PM »
The really small ones will be ice-hamlets. To melt or not to melt.  ;)

Anyone look at the forecast yet? I've hadn't the time today.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2634 on: July 27, 2015, 07:37:47 PM »
GFS 12z has a pretty persistent medium sized cyclone wandering about the Beaufort side mostly.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2635 on: July 27, 2015, 07:51:51 PM »
Thanks, Greenbelt. You're right about that minor, but cocky cyclone centred in the Beaufort, while the high pressure swings around and builds up again on the American side of the Arctic. ECMWF has it too:
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2636 on: July 27, 2015, 08:09:00 PM »
Hmm, the cyclone could slow down the process of MYI breakdown in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, although there should be quite a bit of melting momentum (Bottom melt etc) going on there, and it will of course further disperse the floes.

Meanwhile, the heat is going to be on for a couple of days on the Siberian and Atlantic side of the Arctic, and the CAA is permanently hot, Costa NWP this year:
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2637 on: July 27, 2015, 08:18:16 PM »
It's interesting to note that where the ice around the Atlantic side N of 80N is very thin, the forecast is for southerly winds over the region with rather mild air.



I wonder what impact this might have? There no old thick ice left to protect the N. Pole, so if warmth persists there, the best way to avoid a melt out is transport from the Beaufort side the the CAB.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2638 on: July 27, 2015, 08:20:09 PM »
Ha ha ha, this semantics stuff is right up my street.

(if you read this post through, you will see that it is very much on topic, by the way :) )

The word is spoken as 'burg', or a variant, by most of the Indo-European world.
For example, that picture you see me in my kilt on the left here, was taken in Edinburgh, which is named that way because the old city was built next to a huge 'burg' that sticks up there (old volcanic plug - see image at bottom) and upon which, the more ancient dwellers from the bronze age lived (who themselves, were all descendants, both in DNA and in language of Indo-European ancestors.) The same word is in many Norse, and Germanic languages and even cognate in Indian Sanskrit. It is an ancient Indo-European word, that was applied to giant mounds, and later,  mountains of ice floating around, and is mis-pronounced these days as 'berg'.

In Scotland, it was called a 'burg', even within this era, by some older folks.

And then, to show that this is all on topic see the last pic. of an iceberg off Greenland, and compare it to "Arthurs Seat', the Burg, in Edinburgh.

You boys just got schooled. :)

See images below.

(also, 'forts' called 'burgs', after 'hill fort'.)
(also, interesting side-note, the Sanskrit cognate word, is the root of 'Brahma', the Hindu God...but Brahma really just means 'totality', or 'elevated (high power)', a bit like our word 'universe', and the way people still (until very recently) use the archaic phrase, 'the Heavens', to mean the whole sky above.)
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 11:25:31 PM by Tommy »

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2639 on: July 27, 2015, 08:21:01 PM »
 
This Ice burg off Greenland, below, looks a lot like 'Arthurs Seat' in EdinBurgh, Scotland, above  :)
« Last Edit: July 27, 2015, 08:41:37 PM by Tommy »

werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2640 on: July 27, 2015, 09:07:06 PM »
I’ve been giving it a try to compare ice quality, because I have some good 2012 MODIS tiles for day 203.

What I found I simplified into this graph. Coasts are in fat red, as well as thinner red the imaginary boundaries between the Arctic seas. The thin blue line surrounds the periphery of broken, structureless icecover for day 203, 2012. The fat green line does it for day 206, 2015:



Discarding all other peripheral ice (Baffin, Hudson, Kara ice is irrelevant, the CAA ice won’t matter much in the ‘end’), there’s something special about this year. Third week of July, 2012, there was  much more ice extent in the Chukchi and ES seas, even though within the whole blue bordered area (3.7 mKm2) individual floes looked more dispersed than in the current green one.
The ‘well protected’ structured ice-pack is dislocated well into the Atlantic side compared to ’12. That has influenced the noticed structure loss against the CAA, which must have already had a crushing effect on ice volume out there.

Musing on these aspects, it is quite clear how strong the impact of the warm GAC 2012 storm during the first 12 days of August that year must have been. It is a strong illustrator of what ‘black swan’-weather effects may have within the general trend of continuing ice volume loss. The year 2012 clearly was an outlier in that sense.
What 2015 shows, is that the ‘rebound years’ ’13 and ’14 will be irrelevant within the trend. Clearly the situation in this phase of the season has erased the temporary effect. I’m very interested whether PIOMAS will reflect that.

Will there be a GAC ’15? To get to lowest, some sort of ‘extra’ will be needed in the next couple of weeks…

Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2641 on: July 27, 2015, 09:15:56 PM »
Quote
Quote
greatdying2
Don't know if it's the best, but I use DMI: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php .
Thanks for that. That's great !

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2642 on: July 27, 2015, 10:02:48 PM »
Will there be a GAC ’15? To get to lowest, some sort of ‘extra’ will be needed in the next couple of weeks…
We seem to be having a "mini me" GAC '15 in the Beaufort currently.  From what I saw of predicted ice movement, it's causing dispersion and shoving a bunch of the thicker ice into warmer near-shores water.  It may have a broader effect on the periphery as stuff gets shoved around.  Some wind models have flow back into the ESS, Laptev and Kara, all of which have heated up.

Later in the week there's some suggestions flow may head back towards the Barents as well.  I've been watching the "ice edge" which has been retreating steadily behind Svalbard and Franz Josef, probably due at least in part to advancing warm water.  The retreat has taken place in spite of transport into the area from elsewhere.
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Greenbelt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2643 on: July 27, 2015, 10:20:09 PM »
12z ECMWF seems to have the arctic low pressure staying a bit more prominent on the American side and high pressure persisting a bit more on the Siberian side. Series of strong Atlantic storms passing between Scotland and Iceland could bring lots of warm air northward toward the Atlantic Arctic, especially of the Arctic ridge decides to stay camped out on the Siberian coast?

Quantum

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2644 on: July 27, 2015, 10:24:13 PM »
Hi everyone, haven't posted here in a long time. But been following for a while. I'm suprised there isn't more discussion about the imminent weather change. The rapid change from HP to LP is a pretty dramatic switch (certaintly one of the most impressive since I started arctic watching). What are people's thoughts on the effect of this switch?

From my basic understanding I would guess there are two camps:

1) The momentum built up in July (e.g substantial melt pond water) will be unstoppable and retardation of the melt rate will be megre (although I think its pretty unlikely that we are going to continue to see consecutive centuries).

2) Its still early enough in the year for the weather to have a significant impact (I suppose its even possible with the very low uppers for some temporary refreezing of surface melt water) and cause the melt rate to significantly slow.

 

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2645 on: July 27, 2015, 10:33:38 PM »
Quote
What 2015 shows, is that the ‘rebound years’ ’13 and ’14 will be irrelevant within the trend. Clearly the situation in this phase of the season has erased the temporary effect. I’m very interested whether PIOMAS will reflect that.

This is it, Werther. This is what this melting season is all about. I also can't wait for the PIOMAS numbers.

Hi everyone, haven't posted here in a long time. But been following for a while. I'm suprised there isn't more discussion about the imminent weather change. The rapid change from HP to LP is a pretty dramatic switch (certaintly one of the most impressive since I started arctic watching). What are people's thoughts on the effect of this switch?

Well, we did announce the switch a while back, but interestingly it seems high pressure is rebuilding on the American side again. Today a more persistent cyclone is being forecast (it was there already, but more persistent now).

Quote
From my basic understanding I would guess there are two camps:

1) The momentum built up in July (e.g substantial melt pond water) will be unstoppable and retardation of the melt rate will be megre (although I think its pretty unlikely that we are going to continue to see consecutive centuries).

2) Its still early enough in the year for the weather to have a significant impact (I suppose its even possible with the very low uppers for some temporary refreezing of surface melt water) and cause the melt rate to significantly slow.
 
You've got it exactly right. This is the big question for the coming week.
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2646 on: July 27, 2015, 11:19:11 PM »
Quote
Frivolousz21
gis has permanent dark particles embedded on the glacier in the bare ice.
The arctic wouldn't have that.
Once snow melts on gis and that darkness is shown albedo Plummets way below what just bare ice would do.

Ah, that makes sense.
Thanks.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2647 on: July 27, 2015, 11:47:28 PM »
12z ECMWF seems to have the arctic low pressure staying a bit more prominent on the American side and high pressure persisting a bit more on the Siberian side. Series of strong Atlantic storms passing between Scotland and Iceland could bring lots of warm air northward toward the Atlantic Arctic, especially of the Arctic ridge decides to stay camped out on the Siberian coast?
The Cyclone Cannons maybe firing themselves back up...
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Tommy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2648 on: July 28, 2015, 01:08:18 AM »
I should probably post this in Greenland thread, but there doesn't seem to be much activity over there, or I don't know which one to post it in, but it is maybe interesting here anyway (plus it's cloudy in the Arctic today :) )

This gif shows 2013, 14, and 15, a position of NE Greenland, (easy to find on WorldView) late July melt ponds.
I didn't know the ponds and fissures remelt in the exact same place every year, I though they would freeze, then some other spot melt later. So, 2013 is a bit cloud covered, but you can still see some of them.

At first I thought 2015 had a little less than 2014, but once you look longer, the ponds look bigger, and join up more, but right now they just have a 'burg' floating in them, so look like circles.

It's easier to see when just clicking though them at your own pace (not in animation so much), but they look bigger, more joined up, and wet wet wet.

5 second intervals - 3 frames
http://satwagraphics.com/testing/melt_ponds_ne_gl-late_july_multi_yr.gif


« Last Edit: July 28, 2015, 01:39:38 AM by Tommy »

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #2649 on: July 28, 2015, 02:00:30 AM »
Musing on these aspects, it is quite clear how strong the impact of the warm GAC 2012 storm during the first 12 days of August that year must have been. It is a strong illustrator of what ‘black swan’-weather effects may have within the general trend of continuing ice volume loss. The year 2012 clearly was an outlier in that sense.
What 2015 shows, is that the ‘rebound years’ ’13 and ’14 will be irrelevant within the trend. Clearly the situation in this phase of the season has erased the temporary effect. I’m very interested whether PIOMAS will reflect that.

Will there be a GAC ’15? To get to lowest, some sort of ‘extra’ will be needed in the next couple of weeks…

I would spin this slightly differently.  2013 and 2014 were fairly normal years.  NSIDC minimum extent was lower than in 2009.  You really have to go back to 2006 and before to see extents consistently lower than 2009.  So there is a large separation between 2006 and 2013/2014.  2013 and 2014 are clearly part of a later pack of results than earlier packs.

2012 might not be that big of a black swan.  I wasn't paying much attention to the weather in 2007, but the drop in the 2007 minimum extent seems like it might have been due to a rare weather event, suggesting that 2012's black swan comes along every 5 years.

While 2012's minimum extent was related to a short single weather event, 2015 is a step up the escalator that is part of the outpouring of heat from the seas to the air of this year's El Nino.  2015's final extent will be due to a months long pattern of weather on top of the changing climate.  2015 doesn't need as rare of a short event as 2012 had to get below 2012's minimum, and might not need an extra kick at all. 

The El Nino pattern will fade away, but the background of climate change will have moved a bit further along.  Soon, within a few years, we'll get another short/sharp weather event that will again push us well into uncharted territory.