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LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3050 on: August 05, 2015, 10:35:25 PM »
For what it is worth...
So I am sceptical about strong claims either way. I have yet to see anyone come up with a convincing argument for either a significant remnant of ice, or no ice at the minimum. Don't both sides gang up on me at once!  ;D
This whole season is bizarre. We start with a very early very low max, then in June we almost have a flat line melt, now we are in a situation where there are a lot of dominoes that could stay in place or be knocked over, all depending upon what happens in Aug and Sept.
The other uncertainty is how much will it take to knock those dominoes over. A big storm, a little storm.
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NeilT

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3051 on: August 05, 2015, 11:11:42 PM »
Looking closely at the Bremen maps I see that this season has defied the others in another interesting way.  The open water off the CAA has stayed stubbornly open.  Closing and opening but never completely closing up.

Right now it looks more like the melt will open into the Beaufort melt region.  If it does this it will open up a completely new melt front we have never before seen in the satellite record.

This, of itself, would be momentous.  The fact that it would be happening in an area which is supposed to be predominantly 5M ice is little more than sensational.

Time will tell.  It may close up as it has done every year before.  Or it may not and then it will make very interesting viewing indeed.
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werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3052 on: August 05, 2015, 11:20:05 PM »
I posted this on the blog, Jul 19, 2015 under ‘Junction June 2015’:

“The > +4dC anomaly North of Ellesmere through July hurts where it is worst. In this 350K km2 the heart of the remaining MYI is losing volume at freightening speed. The well known structure, large rhomboid floes up to 1600 km2 within broad leads, is gone. It has taken on the form common in more peripheral parts of the sea ice over the last years. It is desintegrating into loose floes in large debris fields. And these are blue with melt ponds and even taking a brownish hue, like in the Chukchi Sea days before complete melt out. This weather pattern and location hasn’t occurred before. I’d call the ‘black swan’ event if it were 2017…”

Concerning this, I’d like to give some attentionto today’s MODIS tile r03c03:



I have to crawl back in my memory to Lincoln Sea open water in the past. But this pattern is quite unusual. About 200 km N of the Nares Strait entrance, ice floes are moving apart. Then, the brown hued stretch is getting stronger. Does it indicate a band of weak ice, maybe due to strong snow melt where snow had accumulated during winter (within a process of compaction and ridging). Weakening the ice now through this exceptionally warm period? I wouldn’t see why it differs that locally from adjacent stretches.
Whatever, volume is suffering big time.

PS NeilT, what about the link between your area of concern and the one I mention above?

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3053 on: August 05, 2015, 11:26:48 PM »
The Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS) and Chukchi Sea are predicted to be exposed to winds of around 10 m/s over the next 4 days. The Beaufort Sea will be exposed to weaker winds.
(See http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ - click on "Arctic" and "Surface Wind Speed" then scroll the cursor over the squares for "Forecast Index".)

That should presumably prove fatal to much of the ice there.

The region is still full of really broken up 'slush' (though on the scale of hundreds of metres). Look at WorldView:
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines&t=2015-08-05&v=-3542026.35441595,-345294.8659937555,263157.6455840501,1692465.1340062446 and zoom in fully.

That slush is counted as water, rather than ice, on the U.Bremen concentration maps.


Wind and waves should break all the slush up further. So the surface area will be enormous. Also, there will be mixing of the layers of sea water. If there is enough heat to melt the ice out from within the mixed layers then presumably that will happen, and quickly.

I'm guessing there is enough heat, based on my limited ice watching experience and because it's only early August. More experienced and knowledgeable ice watchers will have a more informed view.

So my guess is dramatic declines in the region over the next few days.

NeilT

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3054 on: August 05, 2015, 11:36:00 PM »
Personally I'd like to compare these two too.

The Maslanik/Fowler/Tschudi ice age map in May on which a lot of the volume and end season extent area predictions were made.



Yesterday's Bremen visual map zoomed into the Beaufort and Banks island.



Now unless my eyes deceive me, that huge nexus of red 5m+ ice off Banks Island and Ellesmere island seems to be either gone or vanishing at an increasing rate.

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Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3055 on: August 05, 2015, 11:43:18 PM »
Quote
Werther
 But this pattern is quite unusual. About 200 km N of the Nares Strait entrance, ice floes are moving apart.

I noticed that, and as I look at the satellite images, it looks like it is made up of smaller blocks than in other years in that area, and is opening up a little. And about 200k further north from there, I noticed the ice is less than 1m thick according to some models being posted. So I wonder if, given a warm August, that whole line could open up from just north of Greenland up to Laptev sea.
« Last Edit: August 05, 2015, 11:58:58 PM by Gonzo »

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3056 on: August 05, 2015, 11:49:57 PM »

Andreas T

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3057 on: August 05, 2015, 11:52:51 PM »
Neil , the colour code on the ice age chart refers to 5+ years which does not translate automatically into thickness values. I don't expect much of this old ice to have been that thick in May or have stayed in the same place

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3058 on: August 05, 2015, 11:54:46 PM »
Is it the 5+ year ice that contributes to the part of the Beaufort Arm that is right in front of Banks Island?

Maybe the rest of the Arm is predominantly the older ice as well?

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3059 on: August 05, 2015, 11:57:45 PM »
Excuse me? Lower SSTs?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png
Your SST anomaly map uses the baseline 1961-1990. (Thats what gives it such a warm appearance)
SST anomalies in the eastern arctic are indeed cooler then the previous few years. Here is 2014 VS 2015.





In addition the eastern arctic has the highest ice coverage in the last 10 years. (It must be from those warm SST's  :P)

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHDCTEA/20150803180000_CVCHDCTEA_0008402993.pdf

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/CVCHACTEA/20150803180000_CVCHACTEA_0008402997.pdf

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3060 on: August 06, 2015, 12:15:50 AM »
Excuse me? Lower SSTs?

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_anomaly_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png
Your SST anomaly map uses the baseline 1961-1990. (Thats what gives it such a warm appearance)


You imply that sea surface temps in the period 1990-now have been much warmer in average than for 1961-1990.

You are right.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3061 on: August 06, 2015, 12:22:43 AM »
In addition the eastern arctic has the highest ice coverage in the last 10 years. (It must be from those warm SST's  :P)

Maybe you should explain that Eastern Arctic according to EC is the region around Baffin Bay? And then explain how this matters in the grand scheme of this melting season.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3062 on: August 06, 2015, 12:44:57 AM »
The Eastern Siberian Sea (ESS) and Chukchi Sea are predicted to be exposed to winds of around 10 m/s over the next 4 days. The Beaufort Sea will be exposed to weaker winds.
(See http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ - click on "Arctic" and "Surface Wind Speed" then scroll the cursor over the squares for "Forecast Index".)
Strong winds are forecast to hit the Atlantic side as well, in about a week.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3063 on: August 06, 2015, 12:48:43 AM »
In addition the eastern arctic has the highest ice coverage in the last 10 years. (It must be from those warm SST's  :P)

Maybe you should explain that Eastern Arctic according to EC is the region around Baffin Bay? And then explain how this matters in the grand scheme of this melting season.

...

Weatherdude88... Are you really arguing about the ice in Baffin Bay as if it is that significant to what is happening further North?

*And* not making that clear to me?

If so, please stop trolling.
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Rubikscube

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3064 on: August 06, 2015, 01:17:04 AM »
“The > +4dC anomaly North of Ellesmere through July hurts where it is worst. In this 350K km2 the heart of the remaining MYI is losing volume at freightening speed.

The scattered remains of the Ellesmere Ice shelf must be suffering in these temps too. Modis shows the Ward Hunt Shelf is turning gray and dark, similar to what happened in 2012. I wonder for how many more decades these shelves can cling on.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3065 on: August 06, 2015, 01:32:58 AM »
Although harder to observe in recent days due to cloud, large floes in the Beaufort continue to explode. One example is attached.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3066 on: August 06, 2015, 01:35:20 AM »
Forgot to attach the scale:
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3067 on: August 06, 2015, 02:02:51 AM »
Although harder to observe in recent days due to cloud, large floes in the Beaufort continue to explode. One example is attached.
Unless I'm mistaken, those 500-1500KM2 blocks we are watching shatter are MYI.
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weatherdude88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3068 on: August 06, 2015, 02:04:57 AM »
...

Weatherdude88... Are you really arguing about the ice in Baffin Bay as if it is that significant to what is happening further North?

*And* not making that clear to me?

If so, please stop trolling.

SST's are not only colder in the eastern arctic, but also in the Greenland sea and Svalbard. You are the one claiming a late minimum based off SST's that are slightly colder than previous years. (Either way SST's are not unprecedented) It has always been assumed when talking about the eastern arctic while living in the western hemisphere is the region below:



Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3069 on: August 06, 2015, 02:18:12 AM »
It has always been assumed when talking about the eastern arctic while living in the western hemisphere is the region below:

Some people will assume that what is being referred to is the Siberian part of the Arctic. To avoid misunderstandings instead of picking nits you can just say Baffin Bay, and everyone understands what you mean.

And of course SST anomalies will show blue where there is ice. But this ice is going to melt out, as will the ice in Hudson Bay. It has no importance whatsoever wrt to how this melting season ends, so I would urge you to stop picking nits in order to pick fights. Final warning.
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Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3070 on: August 06, 2015, 02:37:26 AM »
SST's in Kara and Barents are quite toasty (relatively speaking), and there looks to be some concerted effort on the atmosphere's part to see how much of that heat can reach the ice edge.
Click to animate, but only if you have a good connection.

Paul Beckwith

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3071 on: August 06, 2015, 02:46:41 AM »
In this video I compare Arctic Sea Ice thickness now with the previous 3 years...
 
Will Arctic Sea Ice Vanish this Summer 2015? https://t.co/RXE69M5p0Z

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3072 on: August 06, 2015, 02:55:49 AM »
Is that a cyclone coming into the North Pacific at the tail  end of the animation?

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3073 on: August 06, 2015, 03:00:45 AM »
It is. Will be interesting to see how that develops.

Subjectivist

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3074 on: August 06, 2015, 03:07:18 AM »
Personally I'd like to compare these two too.

The Maslanik/Fowler/Tschudi ice age map in May on which a lot of the volume and end season extent area predictions were made.



Yesterday's Bremen visual map zoomed into the Beaufort and Banks island.



Now unless my eyes deceive me, that huge nexus of red 5m+ ice off Banks Island and Ellesmere island seems to be either gone or vanishing at an increasing rate.

Neil here is a more recent sea ice age map off the graph page Neven put up.
http://ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2015_27.gif

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3075 on: August 06, 2015, 03:08:48 AM »
In this video I compare Arctic Sea Ice thickness now with the previous 3 years...
 
Will Arctic Sea Ice Vanish this Summer 2015? https://t.co/RXE69M5p0Z

Paul, the ACNFS model has been having problems this melting season. I don't know if things have been resolved yet, it doesn't look so to me. But even then, to assume that the model is simulating reality, is going out on a limb. Because it doesn't look realistic.
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ArcticFun

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3076 on: August 06, 2015, 03:24:38 AM »
1st post here. So what is the consensus on the rest of the melt season? Is it looking like a new record minimum?

Thank You

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3077 on: August 06, 2015, 03:34:32 AM »
I think most people here agree there won't be any new records. It never was a possibility after a slow May and June, despite a smashing July.

But it's interesting to see what happens to the multi-year ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, and to the volume rebound of the past two years in general.
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TerryM

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3078 on: August 06, 2015, 03:42:33 AM »
While checking on Ward-Hunt today I was taken aback at the speed of the supposedly thick MYI as it rushed off to the west.
This region was once assumed to be the repository for the last remnants of perennial Arctic Sea Ice.


It will be interesting to see how Ward-Hunt Ice Shelf survives the season.
Terry

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3079 on: August 06, 2015, 03:52:29 AM »
Quote
Neven
I think most people here agree there won't be any new records. It never was a possibility after a slow May and June, despite a smashing July.

Are people discussing record lows in extent, area, volume, or thickness?


Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3080 on: August 06, 2015, 03:55:30 AM »
Are people discussing record lows in extent, area, volume, or thickness?

No, there's little discussion of something that won't happen. The focus is on other stuff, like whether 2015 can come close to or even beat 2007/2011, and thus end second lowest (I don't think it will happen, but I'm not ruling it out either). And like I said the Beaufort full of huge holes and chunks of MYI, and volume in general.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3081 on: August 06, 2015, 04:07:13 AM »
  Personally I haven't ruled out 2015 beating 2012 in some or all of those parameters. There is a lot we don't know about the underlying heat content and state of the ice, and there is always the potential for a big storm to cause havoc.

I think we are all agreed this is an interesting season!

  Intriguing update from U. Bremen. There appears to be a lot of day-to-day fluctuation in these maps, perhaps particularly at this time of year where much of the ice pack is less constrained from moving around. But, for the first time this season that I can recall, there is a fair amount of yellow - indicating concentrations down to around 75% - North of 80 degrees and on the Pacific side. Is this just because the cloud cover has finally lifted to reveal what had been there for a while?

  The high concentration region looks a lot like it did in 2012 on the Western side, though admittedly the Eastern side has a larger region of high concentration ice than around the same time in 2012.

Click on gif to flash back to a comparison with yesterday's map...


greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3082 on: August 06, 2015, 04:22:53 AM »
SST's in Kara and Barents are quite toasty (relatively speaking), and there looks to be some concerted effort on the atmosphere's part to see how much of that heat can reach the ice edge.
Click to animate, but only if you have a good connection.
There's a pretty sizeable low heading towards Bearing from Kamchatka at the end of the forecast. Something happening on the opposite side too, over Iceland. Could be interesting.

(Edit: As Shared Humanity already pointed out.)
« Last Edit: August 06, 2015, 04:59:16 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3083 on: August 06, 2015, 04:24:18 AM »
In this video I compare Arctic Sea Ice thickness now with the previous 3 years...
 
Will Arctic Sea Ice Vanish this Summer 2015? https://t.co/RXE69M5p0Z
Nice, thanks!
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3084 on: August 06, 2015, 04:53:42 AM »
Although harder to observe in recent days due to cloud, large floes in the Beaufort continue to explode. One example is attached.
Unless I'm mistaken, those 500-1500KM2 blocks we are watching shatter are MYI.
Seems you're right.

Using Worldview, I traced the location of the example floe back through time. It (and its still intact neighbour) started out the season a few hundred km east of their current position, about 100 km off the shore of Prince Patrick Island. They were shaped during large fracturing events in early May. That location apparently consisted of the thickest MYI, transported there during the winter from further east along the edge of the CAA.

The history of the floes we were watching a week or two ago (which by the way are now almost completely melted) is similar.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim365d.gif
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3085 on: August 06, 2015, 05:09:23 AM »
  Personally I haven't ruled out 2015 beating 2012 in some or all of those parameters. There is a lot we don't know about the underlying heat content and state of the ice, and there is always the potential for a big storm to cause havoc.

I think we are all agreed this is an interesting season!
Exactly.

Regarding today's Bremen map: that eruption in the ESS, surely it's an artifact? Seems a long way to move in one day.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3086 on: August 06, 2015, 05:17:01 AM »
Great vid Paul!

Right now, if Wadhams was a betting man, I think he would be getting ready to tell his wife she can have that new hat!

JER

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3087 on: August 06, 2015, 05:31:04 AM »
Thanks Verg & FT.

There was a bit of noticeable progress today in a few areas, so I'm starting to feel more optimistic. And being able to get through ice up to 70% rather than 30-40% makes a HUGE difference. (But, of course, our progress would be very slow in ice like that.) Although important regions of the east coast of Baffin are mostly still blocked by a huge region of high-concentration ice, that situation could change a lot in the next 10 days.

I'm hoping we can do our planned itinerary in reverse (i.e., go counterclockwise instead of clockwise). Greenland's west coast is ice-free, so we won't have any problems there; we'd reach Kane Basin on roughly the same time-table going there either clockwise or counterclockwise; and going counterclockwise would allow more time for the east coast of Baffin to become unblocked before we get there.

I'm happy that at least the polar bears, walruses, and seals have had some good, persistent summer ice conditions over a large area in Baffin Bay for a change.
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3088 on: August 06, 2015, 06:28:57 AM »
For what it is worth...

While MYI has clearly played a strong role in Beaufort this year, and seems to be the simplest explanation for the recent stall in Chukchi. I don't know how low either region will go given current data and the evolution of the melt season so far. I have just spent two hours trying to come up with something convincing either way for both regions...

For example, using 4 August extent or compactness in Beaufort vs minimum extent... The extent suggests a significant remnant of ice by the minimum, the compactness indicates virtually no ice.

So I am sceptical about strong claims either way. I have yet to see anyone come up with a convincing argument for either a significant remnant of ice, or no ice at the minimum. Don't both sides gang up on me at once!  ;D

I don't think you should lump the Chukchi and Beaufort together.  The Chukchi is not suffering from a big chunk of MYI sitting in the middle of it, and it is further south and warmer.  The recent stall in the Chukchi is best explained by wind from the recent storms chewing up nearby ice and blowing it into the Chukchi.  The wind maps posted here recently showed that pretty clearly.

Historically, the Chukchi has fully melted out for a handful of years.  It's hard to see how a warming arctic will regress so far back that the Chukchi will retain ice through the September minimum.  You can imagine a scenario where the wind continues to blow ice out of the CAB into the Chukchi, but the wind is going to have to blow steadily across 5 degrees of latitude.  It's remotely possible you can win a Pyrrhic victory there.  But if ice stays in the Chukchi, that just means some other part of the Arctic lost a hell of a lot of ice.

The Beaufort is more complicated.  That is one big hunk of ice sitting in the middle of it.  But it is also way the hell south.  And it is isolated.  It's currently being blown further south.  It can easily spread out further in all directions.  It's susceptible to wave action on all sides. 

But more importantly, I've already conceded 200K km^2 of ice extent in the Beaufort come the September minimum.   [The story was that the MYI in the Beaufort wouldn't melt at all and we would sit at about the current extent through September.  I conceded and cried uncle.  And then the damned ice started melting.  Now it's exciting!]   The CAB no longer has that arm of MYI protecting it.  When are we going to see the stall in the CAB that prevents 2015 from overtaking 2012?

It doesn't really matter whether the Beaufort melts out or not.  It will be exciting.  But the Beaufort is just too small to make much difference in the overall September minimum.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3089 on: August 06, 2015, 06:40:10 AM »
This whole season is bizarre. We start with a very early very low max, then in June we almost have a flat line melt, now we are in a situation where there are a lot of dominoes that could stay in place or be knocked over, all depending upon what happens in Aug and Sept.
The other uncertainty is how much will it take to knock those dominoes over. A big storm, a little storm.

I think you and I were watching a different melt season.  In the latter half of May and into early June, I was watching Jim Hunt watch the MacKenzie river.  We got this big heat wave all through the MacKenzie water shed instantly turning all the snow to water.  I think the MacKenzie probably set a record for peak waterflow into the delta this year.  [Yes, Neven, we are talking about records this year.]

Maybe June extent loss was flat, but a big part of that was because the Bering had already melted out.  There was still a lot of fun to be had watching heat flow from the Northern Pacific over the Chukchi and Beaufort.  And there was a lot of interesting heat sitting on top of the CAA.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3090 on: August 06, 2015, 06:43:46 AM »
Now unless my eyes deceive me, that huge nexus of red 5m+ ice off Banks Island and Ellesmere island seems to be either gone or vanishing at an increasing rate.
I'd give it the benefit of the doubt and guess that it had drifted clockwise around the CAB.

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3091 on: August 06, 2015, 06:49:04 AM »
eastern arctic

While we're on the subject of vocabulary, talking about the East and West in a place whose most interesting feature is that most everything is South... well, that just seems confusing.  Do we mean "eastern arctic" from a North-American bias?  a European bias?  or a Russian bias?  ;-)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3092 on: August 06, 2015, 07:03:20 AM »
Are people discussing record lows in extent, area, volume, or thickness?

No, there's little discussion of something that won't happen. The focus is on other stuff, like whether 2015 can come close to or even beat 2007/2011, and thus end second lowest (I don't think it will happen, but I'm not ruling it out either). And like I said the Beaufort full of huge holes and chunks of MYI, and volume in general.

I think you forget that we started this season talking about the record low maximum extent.  [I pish-poshed the whole idea and was quite wrong.  I won't be wrong twice in one year!]

And no matter how you slice it, something interesting is happening to MYI this year.  That's got to show up somewhere.  Perhaps greatest percentage of MYI lost in one year.

The isolated arm of MYI in the Beaufort may set a record for biggest isolated chunk of September minimum ice.  The Lead north of the Archipelago seems like it might break a record.

And while *you* may not be talking about a record extent, area, and volume loss -- [gratuitous ad hominem attack coming ;-)] because you are too conservative to go out on the thin end of the limb -- the bucket I voted for in the poll includes 2015 beating 2012 in both area and extent.  Until the CAB stalls out, 2015 is on track to beat 2012 in area and extent.

;-)

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3093 on: August 06, 2015, 07:40:49 AM »
Neil here is a more recent sea ice age map off the graph page Neven put up.
http://ftp://ccar.colorado.edu/pub/tschudi/iceage/gifs/age2015_27.gif

Yup I saw the latest July one.  But all that shows is some of the thick ice has moved to the same places where we have holes and extensive melt.

I was just trying to identify that we made projections based on MYI predictions which were in a place which now has no ice.

The movement of that ice only shows that it moved to another area which is also melting heavily.  In Paul Beckwiths video, it shows what I was trying to present much more cleanly.  Simply that the thick ice is mostly gone.

I guess time will tell and at the end of the season we'll know more than we do now.  I must admit it all becomes a bit immediate in the summer melt season and sources which often update very quickly when things are slow update very slowly or even once or twice a week when things are going very quickly.  Even after so long watching all of this, I still can't sit back for a week or two and just let it do it's thing and come back and see the effect.

I won't expect any records unless all that outlying ice which has moved so close to the coastline fully melts out and right now it's not looking like it.  Although I'm always prepared to be surprised in the Arctic.  I'm not really watching that ice too closely right now, I'm more interested in what is clearly melt ponding and floe breakup which has been extending up to 85N before freezing again and starting all over again.

If there is a significant record to be had this year, it looks to me like the largest amount of heat transport into the CAB through open water.  That's mainly what I'm looking for as I haven't seen the ice do this before and it's more of a harbinger of things to come than what melts suddenly in the warm coastal waters.  At least I think so. 
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3094 on: August 06, 2015, 08:02:20 AM »
Posts I made on americanwx

This is a great example of the situation.

You have to look past the clouds.

As the ice thickness gets low enough the scan starts to become transparent.

You can see compared to 2014 huge areas of the Pacific side and CAA are almost ice free.

This is where all of that crap concentration is.

This is just isn't spread out.  It's almost gone. 

On nevens forum there are images from modis showing huge floes in the Beaufort starting to just disentigrate.  Next phase is vanishing.





That's getting counted as extent. 

But not for long!!!


30% concentration has been
Plummeting still.

Below 2011 only above 2012/2007.



It's going to  require an extraordinary cold pattern + endless dispersal of the ice and that probably won't be enough.

The combo of a mile mild late May and June melting off snow early then an epic July has left way to much heat in the water.



Just yesterday at a buoy in the Western CAB 2cm of snow and 4cm of bottom ice melt took place with surface temps below freezing.

This is the only buoy out of 9 in the Beaufort and Western CAB that isn't floating.

And it's down to 85CM of ice.

So it's likely its on one of the thickest flies left.




The ice surface area is barely above the water line and you can see the ice in the water and its definitely well under 1 meter.



Here is one a little further South that had massive bottom melt in I'm June it crapped out in early July with BMI going nuts.



I don't know why this year is being treated like the current ice state is a mirage.

If the dipole pattern didn't break this year would be with 2007 right now.

And there is still an abundance of lower Latitude ice for sure gonna go.

The ice over the Pacific side will slowly degrade and vanish.


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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3095 on: August 06, 2015, 09:05:48 AM »
I'm not so sure about "slowly" part, Friv. Rest, sounds alright. :)
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3096 on: August 06, 2015, 10:19:43 AM »

I don't know why this year is being treated like the current ice state is a mirage.

Because after two years of the weather patterns and melt patters doing unusual things which lead to pauses and higher end state figures, caution is better than anticipation.

I'm guessing that will start to change around August W3 when we will have a much clearer view of the end state. But, again, all will depend on how quickly September cools down.  As we have seen, it's been snowing on the Buoys every time the sun goes away and it will possibly be colder in Sept.

On reflection it looks like the El Nino is actually impacting the arctic ice this year instead of next by pushing warmer water from the Pacific into the Arctic now.  But that is a purely subjective WAG and may have no basis in reality at all.
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3097 on: August 06, 2015, 10:44:51 AM »

And while *you* may not be talking about a record extent, area, and volume loss -- [gratuitous ad hominem attack coming ;-)] because you are too conservative to go out on the thin end of the limb -- the bucket I voted for in the poll includes 2015 beating 2012 in both area and extent.  Until the CAB stalls out, 2015 is on track to beat 2012 in area and extent.

Yes, I admit I'm somewhat conservative, because I think that people expect me to try to remain as credible as possible and not screw up too much. But I did go out on a limb somewhat with that Guardian guest blog, announcing that the 'recovery' might get wiped out this year (mind you, I wrote that article a full week before it was published).

One of the reasons I don't think this melting season will come close to 2012, is of course, because of the huge drop 2012 had around this period due to GAC-2012. But also I feel like the ice on the Atlantic side is not playing this year, similar to 2007 in a way, when all the action was on the Pacific side of the Arctic (although there was a lot more Fram action back then). Looking on MODIS the ice looks very homogenous, and there's not much of a Laptev Bite going on this year.

I speculated that there might be open water closer to the North Pole than last year (ie north of 86°), because there was first year ice over it at the end of winter for the first time on record, but that didn't pan out.

Of course, I'm interested in where this melting season ends up, but I'm already more interested in what this means for next year. How much MYI and volume will there be when all of this is over?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3098 on: August 06, 2015, 10:57:35 AM »
I was wondering about the active Pacific storm season throwing us a (re) curve ball and 'there she blows'?? I believe it is the remnants of the 'cane that is passing Hawaii right now and the experimental models have it running north , running around the Triple R, and into the basin around Bering?

How much energy is it still holding as it approaches? What kind of winds is it carrying with it?

Should bring even more excitement doe us through the middle of the month eh?
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3099 on: August 06, 2015, 12:04:46 PM »

On reflection it looks like the El Nino is actually impacting the arctic ice this year instead of next by pushing warmer water from the Pacific into the Arctic now.  But that is a purely subjective WAG and may have no basis in reality at all.

I think so too. Too much coincidence. Two extra-tropical storms one in May and one in July made it up to the Bering and helped blow warm air into the Arctic. Then  In Alaska it was heat wave one after another.

I wonder if this year there are factors that enable direct hits of El Niño; or that other factors were present in previous ones to inhibit effects. I read something along these lines in this forum or in ASIB.