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Tensor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3300 on: August 12, 2015, 05:07:43 AM »
The Beaufort Arm disintegrated a little more, as did the rest of the Beaufort Sea ice.


I try not to say anything here because I am not nowhere close the the knowledge of the people here, but am I wrong in thinking that "disintegrated a little more" is a bit of an understatement north of Beaufort, say 80-82 degrees north?
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3301 on: August 12, 2015, 05:26:38 AM »
The Beaufort Arm disintegrated a little more, as did the rest of the Beaufort Sea ice.


I try not to say anything here because I am not nowhere close the the knowledge of the people here, but am I wrong in thinking that "disintegrated a little more" is a bit of an understatement north of Beaufort, say 80-82 degrees north?
Good question. Sure, it looks a lot worse there than yesterday. But experience viewing these maps shows a lot of day-to-day fluctuation - particularly in the higher concentration ranges displayed between yellow and crimson.

For example, part of that particular region has been yellow before, was crimson yesterday, and is now yellow again.

So I have mostly only been remarking on the 'edge cases' where the concentration shows as green or below and is also lower than I have previously seen it.

Tensor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3302 on: August 12, 2015, 05:55:57 AM »


I try not to say anything here because I am not nowhere close the the knowledge of the people here, but am I wrong in thinking that "disintegrated a little more" is a bit of an understatement north of Beaufort, say 80-82 degrees north?
Good question. Sure, it looks a lot worse there than yesterday. But experience viewing these maps shows a lot of day-to-day fluctuation - particularly in the higher concentration ranges displayed between yellow and crimson.

For example, part of that particular region has been yellow before, was crimson yesterday, and is now yellow again.

So I have mostly only been remarking on the 'edge cases' where the concentration shows as green or below and is also lower than I have previously seen it.

Thanks, a perfect example why I don't say anything.  I will ask questions at times though.  Thanks for your work with the maps slow wing.
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3303 on: August 12, 2015, 06:20:52 AM »
Thanks, I'm just a newbie here as well really and ask similar types of questions.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3304 on: August 12, 2015, 07:08:50 AM »
Even more food...
Yep, spectacular prediction!

Still a week away but if it does come to pass that the cyclone leaks into the Arctic Basin and sweeps through it with up to ~40 mph winds then all bets are off as to the amount of ice left at minimum.

Will be following with interest how this forecast develops, at
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/
In drop-down menu choose:
Arctic
Surface wind speed
Then, initially, place the cursor arrow over the final square of "Forecast Index"

Or, grab a snapshot. 

This would qualify as bad.

The models keep coming up with these disturbing, very disturbing forecasts.  I keep feeling like we're dodging bullets.  Cyclone-sized bullets...
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3305 on: August 12, 2015, 08:29:19 AM »
Just incremental changes in today's U.Bremen update, plus the usual fluctuations between yellow, orange, red and crimson.

The Beaufort Arm disintegrated a little more, as did the rest of the Beaufort Sea ice.

That extraordinary long linear feature just off the North coast of Greenland is peeking again, showing as yellow concentration.

The ice off Greenland's East coast is currently being battered by 40 mph winds, particularly the Southern end of the ice where, unsurprisingly, some loss is evident.

Click to crossfade between yesterday's and today's maps:

Everyrhing is going south (I mean north ;) ) except tor the Laptev.
The Beaufort has been metodically decimated by that train of weak cold storms and the Chukchi too. More to come.

Nice posrts slow wing

@Nick There has been no more naming since then apart from joking, so, I dont encourage anything. That breach is clearer than before. I  do not doubt now that the two breaches are boundaries between ices of different age and structure, see MODIS yesterday.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3306 on: August 12, 2015, 08:33:20 AM »
The colour scheme is the default supplied by the University of Hamburg. Perhaps we should run a poll of a few alternatives?
Could you make it interactive and let us choose from a palette of pre-defined good color schemes as well as letting us build our own color scheme?  And let us control the speed?

;-)
L.O.L.

Blaine

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3307 on: August 12, 2015, 09:03:32 AM »
I do still intent to get around to writing you some replies to our earlier discussions.

Good post about anomaly development 1 July to 23 July and July 24 to August 9.  There was still a lot of sunlight in the the later period, and still good preconditioning.  That kept extent and area measures falling at a normal rate even with ice drift which ought to have resulted in significantly slower than normal decreases.

Global Weather Logistics, via Crysophere Today...
http://globalweatherlogistics.com/seaiceforecasting/gfs.850mb.vectors.arctic.html

The cyclone that is due to cover the entire Arctic Ocean on 13 to 15 August (Thursday Friday Saturday) is interesting, I'm not sure what effect it will have. But what is interesting is what happens in the Pacific.

Tropical Storm Molave is shown on this 96 hr (4 day ahead - 12 August) with a heading arrow.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hrsfc.gif

Going back to the first link, this is seen as the strong cyclone that proceeds from Japan, and the seems to get entrained by the Cyclone in the Arctic Ocean and drawn in to Bering as the Arctic Ocean cyclone declines.

I'm not terribly impressed with the predictive skill of GFS over the Arctic Ocean.  It appears to generate far too many strong systems centered of the pole, both with very low and high pressures.  I think there has to be some problem with inversion layer dynamics, since it tends to do well elsewhere.

Molave does look like it's going to merge into a low over Alaska and drive large heat input into the Arctic Ocean.  It looks like a good setup for some large melt, but we'll have to see what happens.

GFS also shows a Laptev storm and another huge tropical system into Alaska around August 31, but both of these are fairly speculative at this point.

Generally I think that both quiet conditions (strong sunlight) and strong storms (strong heat transfer) give good melt this time of year, with moderate storms having poor melting conditions, with neither good sunlight nor good heat transfer.

When there is this much open water (especially at 80-82N north of Alaska, and the ESS) and warm water in the Arctic Ocean, it tends to generate storms on top of it.  I think we tend to think of GAC2012 as much more improbable than it was.  The nearshore Beaufort is a lot cooler than in 2012, but there's still a lot of warm water already this year, and a lot of ice-free water that could warm up easily.  I don't really trust GFS to predict it, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a big storm developing up there soon.

6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3308 on: August 12, 2015, 10:38:37 AM »
Thanks, I'm just a newbie here as well really and ask similar types of questions.
slow, you undoubtedly qualify as a poster of valuable scientific information now.

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3309 on: August 12, 2015, 11:16:20 AM »
.....A bit like this one you mean? From:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northern-sea-route/



Showing more of the Atlantic though?


That's fine in my eyes as it shows precisely and allows the brain to appreciate the slow rotation of the ice and the constant minor changes of an 'almost living' system. A teacher with 5 minutes to spare showing it to a class via laptop and ceiling video projector on a sunny day with less than perfect window blinds whilst giving a voice over might get a few comments from the back row though.  :)
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 11:36:54 AM by Ninebelowzero »

Ninebelowzero

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3310 on: August 12, 2015, 11:23:22 AM »
......The colour scheme is the default supplied by the University of Hamburg. Perhaps we should run a poll of a few alternatives?

Could you make it interactive and let us choose from a palette of pre-defined good color schemes as well as letting us build our own color scheme?  And let us control the speed?

;-)


That would of course be silly.

What we could do though is make a fully working 3d model of the Arctic . :)



That way if we're dumb enough to have caused the Summer Ice to disappear we can we clever enough to damn well put it back again.  :)


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3311 on: August 12, 2015, 12:04:48 PM »
Just been reading SIPN for this July, here's the summary of it:


As you may note, Wadhams' prediction remains at ~1M (0,98M, i read elsewhere) for the minimum extent. More interesting to me was to read what exactly prof. Wadhams bases his prediction on - i quote:
"" We use entirely statistical extrapolation methods based on measured values of sea ice extent (from satellites) and sea ice thickness (from submarine voyages). ""

Further, one may also note on the graph above how dramatically different Wadhams' prediction is from all others. But so is his 2nd "main" tool - i mean "submarine voyages". Now, let us imagine, for a moment, that somehow Wadhams' prediction would end up being closer to the actual observed 2015 minimum than any other. That would put all those "other" folks, as well as most of people here, into quite a bit of embarassement, eh.

P.S. I wonder, what that -1M km^2 bottom horizontal is for? Is there any physical sense in negative sea ice extent?  :o I sure get the idea they needed space vertically for names, but why put the "-1" number there?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 12:11:26 PM by F.Tnioli »
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crandles

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3312 on: August 12, 2015, 12:24:33 PM »
That would put all those "other" folks, as well as most of people here, into quite a bit of embarassement, eh.

Well if you want to see embarrassment, did you read SIPN editors note:

[Editor’s Note: Upon review by the SIPN team, this outlook has been listed as heuristic in the Sea Ice Outlook report.][/quote]
it is placed directly beneath the "We use entirely statistical extrapolation methods ..." short description of the method.

Can that be interpreted as anything other than: Don't believe this method uses entirely statistical extrapolation?

Where the embarrassment should be is obvious without needing to wait for the outcome.






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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3313 on: August 12, 2015, 12:56:00 PM »
Will be interesting to see what Wadham's says near the end of September...."after all the votes have been counted."

While I am NOT a betting man (nor a scientist)......I would certainly lay a few quid against Wadham's estimate.



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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3314 on: August 12, 2015, 01:10:02 PM »
A glimpse through the clouds of a nascent "Beaufort Bite" extending north of 80 degrees:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#CAB
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3315 on: August 12, 2015, 01:16:23 PM »
There is, I guess, the 'chance' that Wadhams' estimate comprises both his view of the likely extent AND a bias coming from potential error bars in his estimate around the probability of one million sq km.

In my uneducated option (to be taken with all the salt in the sea) the chances still look to be around 50/50 from the view on 12 August combining warm water intrusions, displaced multi-year ice, overall fragmentation and potential weather bombs.

I'm sure Wadhams does not want to be right, but he appears to have the grim conviction that, as a worst case, he could be.  Surely a man with such a deep understanding of the workings of warm water and cold ice in the Arctic deserves some respect for adopting that position.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3316 on: August 12, 2015, 01:18:26 PM »
Will be interesting to see what Wadham's says near the end of September.

Prof. Wadhams will be incommunicado aboard the R/V Sikuliaq seeking out the marginal ice zone (north of?) in the Beaufort Sea hoping to measure the effect of substantial swells on both old and new ice:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222.msg55517.html#msg55517
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 01:26:39 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3317 on: August 12, 2015, 01:53:32 PM »
Quote
Surely a man with such a deep understanding of the workings of warm water and cold ice in the Arctic deserves some respect for adopting that position.

Agree.....BUT....keep in mind that there are MANY other climate scientists with equally good knowledge....that are "betting against him."

And this is coming from someone who expects we will see 3.5 - 3.75 km2 come mid September (but has the scientific background of an earthworm:).

Next 5 weeks or so will be truly interesting from an "observer" point of view...

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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3318 on: August 12, 2015, 01:58:03 PM »
Will be interesting to see what Wadham's says near the end of September...."after all the votes have been counted."

While I am NOT a betting man (nor a scientist)......I would certainly lay a few quid against Wadham's estimate.
If 2015's minimum would be below 3M, - i know i know "we don't think so", - then he'd possibly say: "well most of you folks made as big mistake as i"; if below 2M - he'd say "i told ya! See, i almost nailed it"; if above 3M - well, he'd probably back off to his many times repeated uncertainty, which is that he was originally predicting nearly ice-free minimum "around 2015 or 2016". If i might add, earlier in this topic we had quite a few people mentioning that certain conditions exist which point at possibly much bigger melt season in 2016 as compared to 2015.

Overall, i'd suggest to not trust folks and media who makes fun out of prof. Wadhams. He got his polar medal for "extreme" human endeavour in Arctic, he knows the place much better than most of us even here, he spent decades there. And his (relatively) recent manner of argument is definitely scientific and strong, to me; i've read few people who argument their points as well and proper as he does at times, like for example in here, scroll down to "4. Rebuttal from Professor Peter Wadhams" - and that's in response to talks in a place no less than UK parlament.

If you'd read that particular rebuttal in its entirety, then you may probably see why prof. Wadhams' views are quite much... diminished in public media and such. I believe this counter-action from the system towards prof Wadhams has to be accounted for whenever some of us here take a position towards Wadhams' opinions. Like in this case, when i would join your bet with a few quidrubles of my own, if i wouldn't know who Peter Wadhams is - but i know who he is, so i won't join your bet. I'll remain neutral and careful. Because, IMHO, if there are few people whos _unusual_ predictions about Arctic might end up being true - then, i believe, Wadhams is one of them.

But, of course, i won't blindly trust his words on anything, too. So, it's a situation when various factors increase my uncertainty too much to bet on anything - even if weather wouldn't be such an unpredictable (for more than few days) thing.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 02:12:41 PM by F.Tnioli »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3319 on: August 12, 2015, 02:40:28 PM »
A teacher with 5 minutes to spare showing it to a class via laptop and ceiling video projector on a sunny day with less than perfect window blinds whilst giving a voice over might get a few comments from the back row though.  :)

I have to admit I've never tried that particular experiment.  :-[
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3320 on: August 12, 2015, 02:42:53 PM »
Today on the Pacific side: warm southerlies across Bearing and Beaufort getting flushed.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3321 on: August 12, 2015, 03:09:11 PM »
And in a week? Not sure that we'll dodge this bullet (or grenade)...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3322 on: August 12, 2015, 03:33:51 PM »
Quote
F.Tnioli: As you may note, Wadhams' prediction remains at ~1M (0,98M, i read elsewhere)
Whoa. I put it at about same as 2012 or even less, but Wadhams sounds like someone on this forum (forget who) who says s/he always puts it at zero ice, because he knows he'll be right one day.
But if Wadhams is based on real measurements, maybe all those maps that are put out every day are just very vague approximations. Ie. give or take a million square kilometres or two.
Wadhams probably has a lot more funding than many of the others, so that in itself could make it a different kind of model - access to better technology? info. from submarines?.

« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 04:21:52 PM by Gonzo »

6roucho

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3323 on: August 12, 2015, 05:06:23 PM »
Quote
F.Tnioli: As you may note, Wadhams' prediction remains at ~1M (0,98M, i read elsewhere)
Whoa. I put it at about same as 2012 or even less, but Wadhams sounds like someone on this forum (forget who) who says s/he always puts it at zero ice, because he knows he'll be right one day.
But if Wadhams is based on real measurements, maybe all those maps that are put out every day are just very vague approximations. Ie. give or take a million square kilometres or two.
Wadhams probably has a lot more funding than many of the others, so that in itself could make it a different kind of model - access to better technology? info. from submarines?.
I reckon that Wadhams, the professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, at the University of Cambridge, leader of 40 polar field expeditions, and holder of the Polar Medal, probably outranks that poster. Of course that doesn't mean he's right, this year. Appeals to authority are only worth as much as the post hoc confirmation they're written on.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 05:11:24 PM by 6roucho »

Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3324 on: August 12, 2015, 05:12:27 PM »
Quote
I'll remain neutral and careful. Because, IMHO, if there are few people whos _unusual_ predictions about Arctic might end up being true - then, i believe, Wadhams is one of them.

Almost anything is possible....and Wadhams falls within that.  And the ice is in "crappy" shape.  So one of these years VERY SOON....he will be right.  In fact....all the "fuss" we make about levels of any one year, are a little silly.  We all know that the ice sheet is headed to zero...it's just a matter of time.

Is it this year....2016....2017.  Doesn't really matter a whole lot.  What matters...is that it IS going to disappear before our very eyes.  What matters NOW....is getting people TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

 
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Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3325 on: August 12, 2015, 05:12:57 PM »
Nice shot 6roucho!  :)

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3326 on: August 12, 2015, 05:56:15 PM »
Quote
Groucho: the professor of Ocean Physics, and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, at the University of Cambridge, leader of 40 polar field expeditions, and holder of the Polar Medal, probably outranks that poster.
Most folks know that I think. But can anyone address why the prediction could be so different?
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 06:07:48 PM by Gonzo »

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3327 on: August 12, 2015, 06:02:29 PM »
Quote
Buddy: Is it this year....2016....2017.  Doesn't really matter a whole lot.  What matters...is that it IS going to disappear before our very eyes.  What matters NOW....is getting people TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.
Nothing can be done about it, according to Wadhams and many others. "The methane gun has been fired." - Guy McPherson, Professor Emeritus, University of Arizona School of Natural Resources and Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, 2009-present.

There are scientifically validated ways to change the whole human race's symbiosis with nature for the better, and very quickly, evidenced by masses of scientific research, very easy to implement compared to any other solution, and not talked about at all in climate solution discussions, but it is beyond the scope of this forum.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2015, 06:16:09 PM by Gonzo »

ritter

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3328 on: August 12, 2015, 06:11:48 PM »
  What matters NOW....is getting people TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Oops. Too late. With ~20 years of warming built in at current CO2e levels, I suspect it's going the way of the dodo bird no matter what we do today, tomorrow or next week (let alone next year).

Excellent discussion by all. I learn so much here. Thanks!

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3329 on: August 12, 2015, 06:13:01 PM »
As of yesterday, the pack was connect to Greenland and Ellesmere Island by a mixture of water and thin soup:

Metamemesis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3330 on: August 12, 2015, 06:35:31 PM »
Although a dipole set-up with Fram export would normally be fascinating to watch, it may be that the reverse set-up may be just as interesting. Starting this weekend, there are predicted to be some strong and consistent south-south-easterly winds entering the Fram Straight. Aside from the warm air and compaction they bring, it looks like any waves will have a considerable fetch.

Any bets on what this might do to the ice in that area? Already looking fragmented; I'll be keeping an eye on EOSDIS for before and after images.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3331 on: August 12, 2015, 06:42:53 PM »
  What matters NOW....is getting people TO DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT.

Oops. Too late. With ~20 years of warming built in at current CO2e levels, I suspect it's going the way of the dodo bird no matter what we do today, tomorrow or next week (let alone next year).

Excellent discussion by all. I learn so much here. Thanks!
The arctic ice is probably toast. The goal now is to prevent the *Greenland* ice from becoming toast, and, halting catastrophic ocean acidification...
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Buddy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3332 on: August 12, 2015, 06:58:12 PM »
Quote
The arctic ice is probably toast.

There is no "probably" about it.  The only question is WHEN.

And with the Arctic continuing to have additional "dark blue ice" for longer periods of time over the coming years/decades.....that means more heat absorbed by the oceans and atmosphere (and yes....Greenland IS next).

Anyone of VOTING AGE....should NOT vote for someone in public office UNLESS THEY:

(A) recognize that the planet is warming
(B) recognize that we (humans) are causing it by burning fossil fuels
(C) are ready to do something about it (like get off fossil fuels ASAP) and encourage policy's that promote the use of alternative energy sources.

 
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NeilT

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3333 on: August 12, 2015, 07:34:16 PM »
I'm sure Dr Wadhams is only trying to make a point.  If he sticks to his prediction, then sooner or later (probably sooner), he's going to be right.  After all virtually every Search prediction is following the long term trend, i.e. down, even including Wattscrapwiththat.

So, today, he's the outlying bid that is not taken up.  But over the next 5 years not only will the ice come closer to his bid, it is quite likely to meet it as it's not going back up.

The more ridicule is heaped on him today, the more ammunition he has when it comes true.

As for voting that way on real issues of climate?  First we'd have to convince the public that losing their ease of life and comfort is way less important than the sheer survival of their immediate descendants.

Strangely enough that's a hard sell.  Tells you a lot about people today.

Another thing to note is that with the deal with Iran, we're going to be burning a Hell of a lot more oil at a lot cheaper price over the next decade as Iran tanks the Oil market price with their stored oil.  Just in case it was not pessimistic enough...

I'm just annoyed that I didn't manage to convince my wife it was a good idea to build the solar panels I want before the EU slapped 50% charges on Chinese imports and the EU governments pulled subsidies on solar power payback.  Effectively creating a double whammy of tanking the solar power market in the EU and making the expensive German units the cheapest available and virtually doubling the cost of building them.

So, you see, even the EU, who have strongly championed reductions, will make decisions based on self interest before acting on climate change.

Meanwhile the Arctic ice melts.  More slowly now, but inexorably.  Record?  No record?  The damage this year to the pack is Significant and will knock on to the following seasons.
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ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3334 on: August 12, 2015, 07:56:23 PM »
Quote
F.Tnioli: As you may note, Wadhams' prediction remains at ~1M (0,98M, i read elsewhere)
Whoa. I put it at about same as 2012 or even less, but Wadhams sounds like someone on this forum (forget who) who says s/he always puts it at zero ice, because he knows he'll be right one day.
But if Wadhams is based on real measurements, maybe all those maps that are put out every day are just very vague approximations. Ie. give or take a million square kilometres or two.
Wadhams probably has a lot more funding than many of the others, so that in itself could make it a different kind of model - access to better technology? info. from submarines?.

Gonzo,

I have respect for Wadhams, and never want to make a bad situation worse by saying hurtful things about someone clearly going through issues regards mental well-being. But the odds of Dr Wadhams reading anything here are vanishingly remote, so...

Dr Wadhams has gone nuts. Because it is so common there is even a term for when an elderly distinguished scientist loses the plot and starts spouting nuttiness. The term for such an occasion is 'going emeritus'. And Dr Wadhams has clearly gone emeritus.

It is my honest hope that those collegaues closest to Dr Wadhams take him aside over a glass of fine whiskey and a good cigar (or whatever works) and quietly persuade him to take a break and re-establish equilibrium. I know whereof I speak, in a previous job work pressures took a toll on me.

[RANT]
Dr Wadhams has no secret data, nothing, nada, not a sauasge more than other sceintists woking on sea ice. Nor does he have any unique insights. He said in June that he thought a virtually ice free situation was possible this year, he made his 1 million prediction via SIPN and for the first time those running SIPN addressed an individual prediction by stating how staggeringly improbable it was. Then Dr Wadhams said he was just establishing a benchmark, something he forgot to say in the June interview or indeed include in his June SIPN submission (surely the obvious place to state it if that were his prior intent, rather than his post hoc justification). His SIPN prediction is seen in this graphic.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-mEBMxrttbTU/VY5W_WdOmeI/AAAAAAAACM4/pMr90noUsac/s640/JUNE%2BSIPN.png
It's the lowest one.

What is going on is that a naive and unphysical extrapolation of volume loss gave 'about now' as the year of the volume decline crossing zero. This unphysical expectation is still driving people including Dr Wadhams. This year has seen an excellent melt season. Many regions started below average extent, June was good melt weather, July was one of the best summer months I have seen for ice melt, August continues to be fairly good for melt. yet even with that, 1 million is totally off the table. The thing is this; it was off the table back in April, nothing about the initial conditions for this year supported a September extent of 1 million, or even close.

Dr Wadhams has not produced any evidence for the 1 million claim, that's not because he is hiding his best cards, it's because he isn't holding any cards at all.
[/RANT]

ritter

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3335 on: August 12, 2015, 08:02:36 PM »
The arctic ice is probably toast. The goal now is to prevent the *Greenland* ice from becoming toast, and, halting catastrophic ocean acidification...
Absolutely.  ;)

ChrisReynolds

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3336 on: August 12, 2015, 08:39:15 PM »
Cesium,

Actually, for the peripheral region a flat lie doesn't mean no more ice, in the 2012 plot you can see the upward curve from late August to mid September, which is the bottom of the average curve inverted (i.e. 2012 area (zero) - average area).

All I was saying was that in the recent extent losses were about average, and area loss has gone from above to below average. We can discuss a different way of determining that, but I can assure you that the conclusion will be the same. I don't just look at anomalies.

As stated I use the NCEP/NCAR baseline period because it ties atmospheric and ice data to a common baseline, that was what led me on to show the usefulness of anomalies considering the various composite regions (chosen to break down events such as that shown based on my experience and understanding).

I have attached a plot of the post 2007 areas, and as that lacks longer term historical context, for completeness I have added all years 1979 to 2015. Anomalies concentrate attention on the small changes without being swamped by the seasonal cyle.


Blaine,

Yes it doesn't look as exciting as it was, but I do let myself get excited on long shots from time to time, it is a hobby for me and this summer has been really good. I'll bear in mind your observation about GFS in the Arctic Ocean.

Looking at ice behaviour the loss of 2012 was in excess of 2 or 3 sigma (I forget). But I agree that what drove that, thinner winter ice, strong dipole in June, early open water warming and increased likelihood of storms. Not to mention increased likelihood of cyclone amplification through latent heat flux and water vapour. So the 2, 3 or whatever sigma of the naive sea ice statistics approach is probably an overstatement of how unlikely the event was.

Feel free to take your time. I should post on PIOMAS gice tonight, but I'm putting that aside. I've just taken delivery of a new PC Based oscilloscope and am likely to put sea ice aside for a bit. You can PM me or leave a comment at my blog to prompt me if I miss your comment.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3337 on: August 12, 2015, 08:52:53 PM »
If anyone wants to vote or change their vote, the polls are up for another 14 hours or so.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3338 on: August 12, 2015, 09:56:42 PM »
As for voting that way on real issues of climate?  First we'd have to convince the public that losing their ease of life and comfort is way less important than the sheer survival of their immediate descendants.

What evidence do you have that reducing greenhouse gas emissions would require significant reductions to ease of life and comfort for the average citizen of this world?

Here's a counter-example:  reducing coal emissions in Beijing would significantly improve the ability of the populace to breathe.

Lord M Vader

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3339 on: August 12, 2015, 09:58:09 PM »
This is a repeat of my post from the IJIS thread:

During the years 2002-2014 there have been a rather high similarity in the SIE loss according to IJIS data from August 11 to SIE minimum from 2007-2014:

2002: down 1,1 Mn km2
2003: down 0,9 Mn km2
2004: down 1,25 Mn km2
2005: down 1,1 Mn km2
2006: down 0,8 Mn km2
2007: down 1,25 Mn km2
2008: down 1,5 Mn km2
2009: down 1,2 Mn km2
2010: down 1,4 Mn km2
2011: down 1,4 Mn km2
2012: down 1,7 Mn km2
2013: down 1,2 Mn km2
2014: down 1,2 Mn km2


If we are limiting ourselves to the years 2007-2014 we should most likely see an additional 1,2 Mn km2 in sea ice extent numbers. Maybe 1,4-1,5 Mn km2 if weather conditions are favorable. That said, IJIS SIE number for August 11 was 5,722,632 km2. Thus I think it's fair to say that the SIE minimum for 2015 will end up somewhere around 4,2-4,5 Mn km2. This would equal to a third, fourth or fifth place. With this mathematics we realize that it would require a record melt to beat 2007 at second place. Even 2011 at third place could be tricky as it would require a loss of 1,5 Mn km2.

2012? Well, a loss of 2,6 Mn km2 is more or less just utopia. But hey, there might be a "Big MAC" coming in the end of ECMWF 12z forecast run for today at August 12.... What kind of damage would such one do to the ice?

Sincerely, LMV

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3340 on: August 12, 2015, 10:35:20 PM »
2012? Well, a loss of 2,6 Mn km2 is more or less just utopia. But hey, there might be a "Big MAC" coming in the end of ECMWF 12z forecast run for today at August 12.... What kind of damage would such one do to the ice?

LMV refers to this forecast for 240 hrs (10 days out), which is an Arctic sea ice watcher's wet dream (viewing Arctic sea ice loss as a spectacle, and forgetting about the consequences etc.):
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gideonlow

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3341 on: August 12, 2015, 11:17:00 PM »
Is "Big MAC" for Mega Arctic Cyclone (and a Big one at that!)?

I've read everyone's reasoning or why reaching a record low extent is impossible now, and it's all very sensible, but I also have this nagging feeling that a Black Swan event—or what would have been such in the past—could shatter all expectations. 

As others have said: Are we sure that when the next minimum records are set, we'll see it coming?

NeilT

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3342 on: August 12, 2015, 11:19:02 PM »

What evidence do you have that reducing greenhouse gas emissions would require significant reductions to ease of life and comfort for the average citizen of this world?

Here's a counter-example:  reducing coal emissions in Beijing would significantly improve the ability of the populace to breathe.

Well it would reduce it quite a bit.  However it would not do a single thing about the vehicle emissions.

Then, if they reduced the coal emissions they would have to replace that massive baseload power with something else.  Let's face it, coal is cheap, available, has abundant resources which are easy to extract and a Coal power station can go up in 6 months. 

The only truly viable alternative, today, which does not emit CO2, nuclear, is truly expensive, is powered by a very constrained resource which is hard to extract and takes at least 5 years to build if it's really going to last and be safe.

So if you believe that going without coal is going to a quick one stop shop in terms of air quality, think again.  Then add to that the exponential growth in vehicles, many of which are diesel and you realise that air quality is not going to be quite to easy to get.

Also that power is as much for manufacturing as it is for personal consumption. Which means jobs, wealth, goods, freedom.

Now let's look at the UK which I did an analysis of recently for some friends I talk to elsewhere.

So we shift the personal vehicle traffic to EV. Great.  The energy use balance of the UK is...

Around 12% Electricity
Around 38% petroleum of which 27% was personal transport

So if we wanted to go EV in the UK totally, we would need to triple our current electricity capacity.  But our spare capacity is only 5% in winter.  Worse is that we will be closing down 7gwh of coal fired plants in the next 5 years and we'll be replacing that with 7.5gwh of Nuclear.  Which, if all goes well with the Government contract, should be ready in about a decade.  If it goes like most other government stuff it'll take 2.

So, in order to reduce our emissions, meet our targets, around the world, we're either going to have to make whole new businesses to make the transition or we're gong to have to massively wind back our lifestyle to reduce our carbon footprint.

Creating whole new businesses will require epic level government funding which will require epic level taxes.

We have started too late and too little.  Far too few people even care about what is going on and even fewer of them want to make the sacrifices.  Trust me I talk to people about this a LOT.  The level of ignorance fostered by the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt), pushed out by the right wing press and the denialoshpere is huge.

I don't need to produce surveys to prove my point, I just need to read the press, talk to people and, above all, watch how they vote.

Meanwhile the cryosphere shrinks and idiots like the Daily Mail and WUWT talk about "recovery"....
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3343 on: August 12, 2015, 11:58:04 PM »
Would it be possible to please take the off-topic discussions and move them, well, off-topic? Though interesting, it's kind of cluttering this thread.

As to a black swan event regarding the Arctic ice, physics-wise this black swan needs to arrive in June or July. Even if a BIGMAC arrived 10 days from now, it would cause lots of damage to the ice in terms of dispersal/compaction/breakup/whatever, but probably not have enough time to melt huge amounts and set a new record before the refreeze coming up 3-4 weeks later, IMHO.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3344 on: August 13, 2015, 01:31:04 AM »
Would it be possible to please take the off-topic discussions and move them, well, off-topic? Though interesting, it's kind of cluttering this thread.

As to a black swan event regarding the Arctic ice, physics-wise this black swan needs to arrive in June or July. Even if a BIGMAC arrived 10 days from now, it would cause lots of damage to the ice in terms of dispersal/compaction/breakup/whatever, but probably not have enough time to melt huge amounts and set a new record before the refreeze coming up 3-4 weeks later, IMHO.

Sure, it seems unlikely. But isn't there a tremendous amount of heat sequestered beneath the ice that could be liberated by an energetic storm or two? I don't personally know how plausible that is, but unprecedented things are happening all over the place lately.

forkyfork

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3345 on: August 13, 2015, 01:36:04 AM »
the powerful cyclone on the ecmwf has support from its ensemble members :o





forkyfork

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3346 on: August 13, 2015, 01:37:13 AM »
...as well as the gefs


Michael Hauber

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3347 on: August 13, 2015, 01:53:31 AM »
According to Andrew Slater's temp page July saw what to me looks like the biggest heatwave ever recorded, in terms of both peak temperature and duration.  However since then temps have been below normal.  Perhaps the Arctic weather is becoming stickier, we were stuck in a hot pattern, and now in a cold pattern.  I'd also say that we were not that far off from matching 2012 if we continued to experience strong melting weather in August, with 2012's advantage being thinner ice left over from the previous year, and this year's advantage being a much bigger heatwave.  But at the moment we are running on momentum from the July heatwave with strong bottom melt continuing as surface melt stalls, but I'd expect if this cooler pattern does not break soon that the chance of matching 2007 which a week or two looked very good will be lost.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3348 on: August 13, 2015, 02:08:08 AM »
Neil, a few quick off topic points.

China seems to have hit "plateau" coal and may be decreasing their use.  China is putting a big push on electric cars.  China has massive wind and solar installations underway.

We don't have to replace even half the primary energy as we move from gasmobile to EVs.  Internal combustion engines are extremely inefficient, wasting about 80% of the input energy.  EVs waste about 20%.


cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3349 on: August 13, 2015, 02:51:40 AM »
Is "Big MAC" for Mega Arctic Cyclone (and a Big one at that!)?

I've read everyone's reasoning or why reaching a record low extent is impossible now, and it's all very sensible, but I also have this nagging feeling that a Black Swan event—or what would have been such in the past—could shatter all expectations. 

As others have said: Are we sure that when the next minimum records are set, we'll see it coming?

We should have a pretty good idea at least by 50 days before the minimum:
http://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
"record breaking years 1996, 2005, 2007, and 2012 were predicted as such"
"improved skill may be available via several avenues of refinement"
[Apologies if my data entry skills, or lack thereof, introduced typos into the quoted text.]