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greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3350 on: August 13, 2015, 03:06:30 AM »
"record breaking years 1996, 2005, 2007, and 2012 were predicted as such"
2012 was predicted 50 days out? Hmmmm.... having a hard time believing it.

As to the Big MAC, if it occurs might it not only break up the ice, but more importantly stir the water sufficiently to bring warm water from below the haloclines to the surface? If so, all bets could be off... Or I might just be trippin'.

Edit: Yeah, what Oren said. Fun times...

Neven: "Wet dream," as in no longer frozen?  :P
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 03:16:09 AM by greatdying2 »
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3351 on: August 13, 2015, 03:10:34 AM »
Today in the NSIDC extent horserace, we blew by 2010 into 4th position.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3352 on: August 13, 2015, 03:10:58 AM »
Would it be possible to please take the off-topic discussions and move them, well, off-topic? Though interesting, it's kind of cluttering this thread.

As to a black swan event regarding the Arctic ice, physics-wise this black swan needs to arrive in June or July. Even if a BIGMAC arrived 10 days from now, it would cause lots of damage to the ice in terms of dispersal/compaction/breakup/whatever, but probably not have enough time to melt huge amounts and set a new record before the refreeze coming up 3-4 weeks later, IMHO.

Sure, it seems unlikely. But isn't there a tremendous amount of heat sequestered beneath the ice that could be liberated by an energetic storm or two? I don't personally know how plausible that is, but unprecedented things are happening all over the place lately.
There is, but there are multiple challenges to apply it...
- rate of transfer to the ice
- rate of replenishment from depth
- increasing net radiative heat loss

A storm can liberate some, but we'd need more than a couple of storms for a black swan event I think.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3353 on: August 13, 2015, 04:40:12 AM »
An update on an old Beaufort friend: he is desperately trying to hold himself together -- and succeeding surprisingly well.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

ktonine

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3354 on: August 13, 2015, 04:41:27 AM »
An update on an old Beaufort friend: he is desperately trying to hold himself together -- and succeeding surprisingly well.

Held together by zeroth year ice.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3355 on: August 13, 2015, 04:50:40 AM »
An update on an old Beaufort friend: he is desperately trying to hold himself together -- and succeeding surprisingly well.

Held together by zeroth year ice.
I'd say less "holding together" and more "sailing in formation"
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slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3356 on: August 13, 2015, 04:52:36 AM »
Another day for losses in the Beaufort Sea in the U. Bremen update. The hole separating the arm from the rest of the pack now has a lot more area than the arm itself.

 A low pressure system is bringing strong winds - up to around 15 m/s - to the end of the arm nearest the CAA.

  That is one of three low pressure systems currently in the Arctic Basin, and flecks of yellow show lowered concentrations in several areas.

  Inside the CAA, a large part of the ice in the main (Northern) channel for the Northwest Passage  has turned from crimson (high concentration) to green (<50% concentration) in just one day. However, this has happened before - even as early as 22 July.

  MODIS shows plenty of ice still there but with a greyish hue. So maybe melt ponds are fooling the concentration reconstruction. This is consistent with the Nullschool map showing temperatures of around +2 degrees C over that ice:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-35.44,93.43,1444


If the Beaufort Sea disintegration translates through to the area and extent calculations then we might expect big losses in those numbers for Saturday and Sunday (day of release, as Wipneus presents them, if I'm not mistaken - although it is now more complicated than that, as Wipneus has just posted http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1112.msg60486.html#msg60486; maybe some of the 11 August losses already showed up for Wipneus' "Friday"?).

Click to show change from yesterday's map to today's:
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 06:21:21 AM by slow wing »

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3357 on: August 13, 2015, 05:07:33 AM »
A low pressure system is bringing strong winds - up to around 15 m/s - to the end of the arm nearest the CAA.
So what remains of the multi-year ice in that sector is being pushed even further into warm coastal waters. Doesn't stand a chance.

At this rate, there won't be anything left to be destroyed when the typhoon hits next week.  ;)

Thanks for this and all your excellent posts.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3358 on: August 13, 2015, 05:34:15 AM »
Slow wing inspired me to take a look at a longer series of UB concentration maps.

Being a graphics illiterate, I just opened Aug. 1-12 from the archive in web-browser tabs, then flipped through the tabs. I thought I may as well share it with y'all, but since I don't know an easy way to make gifs, I just made a screen grab movie:

https://vid.me/X1VB
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3359 on: August 13, 2015, 06:53:00 AM »
Heck, everyone's getting into the game.   :)

I used the online gif 'factory' and put together a "This Week in the Arctic" gif starting with 6 Aug and running through 12 Aug.



Unfortunately this program loops back from the last frame to the first, fading as it goes, rather than stopping at the last frame and then returning directly to the first.  When the date is the darkest is the 6 Aug frame.

http://ezgif.com/ - if anyone wants to have a go.

vigilius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3360 on: August 13, 2015, 07:26:25 AM »
So would I be correct in saying at this point that pretty much all variants of the southern route through the Northwest Passage are now open? Or is it better form to wait until CT catches up with Bremen to make such declarations? Thanks to all.

James Lovejoy

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3361 on: August 13, 2015, 08:14:04 AM »
Couldn't just the right wind patterns export a bunch of ice?  It would be extremely unlikely that enough could be exported for a new record, but it wouldn't be impossible.

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3362 on: August 13, 2015, 08:19:37 AM »
So would I be correct in saying at this point that pretty much all variants of the southern route through the Northwest Passage are now open? Or is it better form to wait until CT catches up with Bremen to make such declarations? Thanks to all.
not *quite* but damn close.  I'll use EOSDIS to make my determination, clouds permitting. 

Someone sufficiently ambitious I think could make it though now with a robust enough boat.
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Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3363 on: August 13, 2015, 08:21:46 AM »
So would I be correct in saying at this point that pretty much all variants of the southern route through the Northwest Passage are now open? Or is it better form to wait until CT catches up with Bremen to make such declarations? Thanks to all.

Better check with Wipneus' home-brew AMSR-2 topic. He produces regional sea ice concentration animations with the highest resolution, CT is really low resolution. I'm sure Wipneus will do a NWP animation as soon as it comes near to becoming ice-free.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3364 on: August 13, 2015, 08:23:26 AM »
Couldn't just the right wind patterns export a bunch of ice?  It would be extremely unlikely that enough could be exported for a new record, but it wouldn't be impossible.

The Year of the Big Flush.

Possible, but I don't know how likely.  Were some massive and persistent  storm system to set up an an optimal point to force ice out the wide open Fram Strait it would make for an interesting last few weeks.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3365 on: August 13, 2015, 08:53:00 AM »
Another day for losses in the Beaufort Sea in the U. Bremen update. The hole separating the arm from the rest of the pack now has a lot more area than the arm itself.

 A low pressure system is bringing strong winds - up to around 15 m/s - to the end of the arm nearest the CAA.

  That is one of three low pressure systems currently in the Arctic Basin, and flecks of yellow show lowered concentrations in several areas.

  Inside the CAA, a large part of the ice in the main (Northern) channel for the Northwest Passage  has turned from crimson (high concentration) to green (<50% concentration) in just one day. However, this has happened before - even as early as 22 July.

  MODIS shows plenty of ice still there but with a greyish hue. So maybe melt ponds are fooling the concentration reconstruction. This is consistent with the Nullschool map showing temperatures of around +2 degrees C over that ice:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-35.44,93.43,1444


If the Beaufort Sea disintegration translates through to the area and extent calculations then we might expect big losses in those numbers for Saturday and Sunday (day of release, as Wipneus presents them, if I'm not mistaken - although it is now more complicated than that, as Wipneus has just posted http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1112.msg60486.html#msg60486; maybe some of the 11 August losses already showed up for Wipneus' "Friday"?).

Click to show change from yesterday's map to today's:

Nice work, awesome.

Something to write about this year, how powerful divergent drift can be over a loose MYI pack. Nobody was really sure whether this mechanical action was going to hurt more than coldness healing. Three poor storms, two not even dragging heat from continent, and see.
As soon as the sun is shining strong, and for days clean of clouds again, very low over horizon, may refreeze start.

There is some high also in forecasts that might help gather debris and compact.


F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3366 on: August 13, 2015, 10:16:38 AM »
An update on an old Beaufort friend: he is desperately trying to hold himself together -- and succeeding surprisingly well.
A little sarcastic, or is it not? What my eyes see is but a husk, walking drifting dead, so to say.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3367 on: August 13, 2015, 11:18:19 AM »
There is no chance of coming close to 2012.

Given the current models 2007 and 2011 is though.
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3368 on: August 13, 2015, 11:25:55 AM »
Nice work, awesome.

Something to write about this year, how powerful divergent drift can be over a loose MYI pack. Nobody was really sure whether this mechanical action was going to hurt more than coldness healing. Three poor storms, two not even dragging heat from continent, and see.
As soon as the sun is shining strong, and for days clean of clouds again, very low over horizon, may refreeze start.

There is some high also in forecasts that might help gather debris and compact.
(my bold in the quote)

The bold line quite puzzles me. First, i am at a loss about how refreeze may start "as soon as the sun is shining strong". Second, i fail to see how sun would be "very low over horizon".

The latter, i fail to see while using following assumptions:

 - we talk about Beaufort sea here;
 - Barrow, Alaska is sitting right next to Beaufort sea;
 - today, maximum angle for the sun in Barrow, Alaska is ~33° above the horizon (using rounded to integers latitude and longitude for Barrow in this calculator, 12 hours 00 minutes), and this can't be "very low over horizon" in any sense;
 - week later, August 20th, maximum sun angle over horizon would be ~31° (same calc);
 - month later, September 13th, maximum sun angle over horizon would be ~22°.

Please enlighten me (no sarcasm), if appropriate.
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greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3369 on: August 13, 2015, 11:44:07 AM »
An update on an old Beaufort friend: he is desperately trying to hold himself together -- and succeeding surprisingly well.
A little sarcastic, or is it not? What my eyes see is but a husk, walking drifting dead, so to say.
Sarcasm? What's that?  ;)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

greatdying2

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3370 on: August 13, 2015, 11:48:16 AM »
Heck, everyone's getting into the game.   :)

http://ezgif.com/ - if anyone wants to have a go.
Thanks!   :)
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3371 on: August 13, 2015, 12:40:41 PM »
Nice work, awesome.

Something to write about this year, how powerful divergent drift can be over a loose MYI pack. Nobody was really sure whether this mechanical action was going to hurt more than coldness healing. Three poor storms, two not even dragging heat from continent, and see.
As soon as the sun is shining strong, and for days clean of clouds again, very low over horizon, may refreeze start.

There is some high also in forecasts that might help gather debris and compact.
(my bold in the quote)

The bold line quite puzzles me. First, i am at a loss about how refreeze may start "as soon as the sun is shining strong". Second, i fail to see how sun would be "very low over horizon".

The latter, i fail to see while using following assumptions:

 - we talk about Beaufort sea here;
 - Barrow, Alaska is sitting right next to Beaufort sea;
 - today, maximum angle for the sun in Barrow, Alaska is ~33° above the horizon (using rounded to integers latitude and longitude for Barrow in this calculator, 12 hours 00 minutes), and this can't be "very low over horizon" in any sense;
 - week later, August 20th, maximum sun angle over horizon would be ~31° (same calc);
 - month later, September 13th, maximum sun angle over horizon would be ~22°.

Please enlighten me (no sarcasm), if appropriate.

Lol yeah, unfortunate use of words from my part.

I meant not strong but clear of clouds. When beautiful weather comes, if so, so to speak.

It is 30° above horizon midday but it starts to get very close to horizon at 'midnight', right? Temperatures drop. Sun radiation no sufficient anymore.
Temperatures plummet during those cold hours. I observed that last year from sat data. But you know better than me for sure living at higher latitude. :) (you live in Russia?). I am at less than 40N (NH).

What is clear is that storms are not helping the loose ice pack at all. Floe breaking, dispersing, mixing. Weak storms. Probably clouds reradiating heat back to ice and avoiding temps plummet during coldest hours of the day.

So when ' here comes the sun' ,  the frost too.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3372 on: August 13, 2015, 12:50:36 PM »
I'm sure Wipneus will do a NWP animation as soon as it comes near to becoming ice-free.

He already did:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg60601.html#msg60601



Personally I'd like to see MODIS confirmation that the Bellot Strait vicinity for example is currently navigable. Unfortunately there were clouds in the way there yesterday, but there was certainly ice visible elsewhere on the southern route:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/
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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3373 on: August 13, 2015, 12:57:08 PM »
The Hapag Lloyd cruise ship Hanseatic has just left Kangerlussuaq heading for the eastern end of the Northwest passage via Disko Bay. Here's the view from the webcam earlier this morning, together with the route plan for the voyage:

« Last Edit: August 18, 2015, 12:46:28 PM by Jim Hunt »
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F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3374 on: August 13, 2015, 01:04:38 PM »
...
I meant not strong but clear of clouds. When beautiful weather comes, if so, so to speak.

It is 30° above horizon midday but it starts to get very close to horizon at 'midnight', right? Temperatures drop. Sun radiation no sufficient anymore.
Temperatures plummet during those cold hours. I observed that last year from sat data. But you know better than me for sure living at higher latitude. :) (you live in Russia?). I am at less than 40N (NH).

What is clear is that storms are not helping the loose ice pack at all. Floe breaking, dispersing, mixing. Weak storms. Probably clouds reradiating heat back to ice and avoiding temps plummet during coldest hours of the day.

So when ' here comes the sun' ,  the frost too.
Moscow region, Russia, yes.

Up there in Barrow, Sun gets below horizon for a few hours every day already. For ~12 hours every day, though, it's not "very low" - but quite a bit higher than that.

As for temperature drop during night hours, it's nothing as dramatic as (it seems that) you think it is. In one of my recent posts, i was giving a link to a bouy in Bering strait, complete with both surface air and surface water temperatures, very nicely graphed in several daily cycles real-time. As you can see from it, short night does not allow temperatures to drop down more than for ~2°C below daily average, at best. Usually even less than that. Sunny day can warm up surface water more than that for a few hours, up to by ~5°C or so, and that temperature "bump" would quickly be lost (in a few hours), but the daily minimums of _water_ surface temperature - SST, - from day to day are remarkably stable, no matter if it's sunny or cloudy; even not-so-large surface air fluctuations are barely noticeable in SST graph during night hours, as you can see. This would remain to be the case, i believe, as long any small part of mixable column of water - for any deep sea that's ~150m meters deep, - would remain significantly above freezing point (~-1.8°C for sea water), because as right-at-the-surface water cools, it gets more dense and sinks (mixing helping - and _sea_ water does not have density peak at ~4°C as fresh water does), being replaced by still-warmer water "from just below", and the cycle continues pretty much until all the water in mixable layer is rather close to freezing point.

All the above is as true for Bering strait as for most of Beaufort sea, i believe - at this point of the melt season.

The key thing here is to realize that water is quite opaque to IR radiation, which means that heat "inside" mixable layer - anything few dozens centimeters deeper than very surface water and down to ~150m deep, - is quite trapped in there; it can't be directly radiated "out". Another key thing to remember is huge thermal capacity of water. And yet another key thing to keep in mind is significant transparency of water to visible radiation - which most of sunlight is.

So this is what typically happens to ice-free sea/ocean during (sunny) day cycle, in my humble opinion: Sun goes up, (much of) sunlight penetrates into the water (especially when there are any significant waves, which is - most of the time), and travels through water column dozens (some photons - hundreds) meters trajectories (not equal "dozens or hundreds meters downwards" unless we talk close to equator, when entry angle is close to vertical). Beaufort sea, this - still significant now and for several more weeks, - insolation heats few dozens meters of upper sea water, being absorbed by water. Water then re-radiates part of absorbed energy as (mostly) IR radiation, but it can't easily go out as mentioned above, and so every sunny day simply adds more energy into the sea, but temperature rises very gradually - due to above mentioned water thermal capacity. But the energy stored by the end of summer - is quite huge.

When it's cloudy days, very little visible light makes it to the surface, most scattered, quite negligible; so then surface air temperatures, amount and features of precipitation (if present), cloud IR reflection and re-radiation, winds and other factors together form the SST direction, which may be upwards sometimes, but usually (and on average for cloudy days) is gradual cooling, i believe - much slower than open skies cooling, yes. That's how it sort of compensates: a full 24 clear sky (sunny) cycle in Beaufort right now would involve ~12 hours of still powerful sunlight, plus few more hours of "low sun" sunlight, plus some hours of near-darkness (Sun not much below horizon), with relatively fast cooling of the surface - i.e. "not much a change" in terms of net surface temperature change "after full 24h have passed"; while full 24 cloudy sky cycle in Beaufort now would be defined by temperature and features of clouds and airmass in general - and if it's a warmer airmass, may even be gradual warming (this time of the year, quite lots of warm air comes into Arctic, in general), but it as well might be gradual cooling - or even "no change". But in any case one midnight SST minimum would differ from both previous (24h earlier) and next (24h later) by few .decimals of a single degree celcius (except special, unfrequent occasions), - which is what we see the Buoy reporting indeed (i believe we got two sunny days last week on that bouy in Bering Strait, rest ~5 days being quite cloudy, moderate winds, today intensifying significantly if wave size reported is any indication).

As nights get longer and sun keeps going lower and for shorter times every day, amount of incoming solar radiation decreases, but the amount stored in the water is many times higher than any given "summer's day" worth of sunlight - a result of summer months and all the 24/7 summer sunlight of all clear-sky days. Convection of warmer waters to the surface is relatively slow process when we speak thick columns of sea water (50+ meters) and few degrees, if not few .decimals of degrees C, differencies. Storms can accelerate the process. Ocean (water) currents can affect any given location, replacing warmer mixable layer of water with colder (mechanically), or vice-versa. Surface air temperatures, if very low, can further accelerate loss of heat. But still it'd take few weeks for some well-mixed 3+°C sea to cool down enough for any good ice to appear, i think - not a single night or two, no matter what weather would be there, except some rather rare extremities, like extremely intense and very cold snowfall happening without any wind. And so there is still quite long road to re-freeze in non-CAB in general and in much of Beaufort sea in particular, for all parts with night SSTs (ok, morning SSTs if to be more precise) any higher than ~3°C. As demonstrated in one of graphs recently given in this topic, non-CAB refreeze in 2012 didn't start in any noticeable in terms of whole Arctic amount till quite much into October - i believe, exactly because extra ~2 weeks were needed for significantly warmer-than-freezing-point non-CAB seas to lose accumulated heat even in their _cooler_ regions.

The warmer your august seas are, the longer (more weeks) it'd take for them to do so. And right now, much of Beaufort is already noticeably above freezing point, iirc.


I hope this clarifies, if a bit, my ongoing confusion about those "frost comes" words.

Please do correct me - this is a request to everyone - if something in my understanding above is flawed. I am willing to learn.


P.S. Quite a storm there in Bering Strait now, it seems? Up to 3m waves - i wouldn'a go fishin' in there for sure... It will mix quite some more heat into deeper layers, me thinks.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2015, 03:17:37 PM by F.Tnioli »
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3375 on: August 13, 2015, 01:18:53 PM »
While slightly outside of the reliable timeframe, both the ECM and GFS show a strong dipole emerging again at about 7-8 days out, coupled with the potential for a rather large storm on the Eurasian side of the Arctic.

ECM



GFS



The 8-10 day mean height charts support several strong ridges around the Arctic as well as a deep trough over the Eurasian side. This would tend to promote compression of the shattered ice on the Pacific, while driving warmth up into the Atlantic side and churning up the ice on the Eurasian side. A very interesting and unusual set up possible towards the end of next week.



Normally looking this far ahead has little use, but when the 2 big models agree with eachother and show an odd set up it's worth taking note of.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3376 on: August 13, 2015, 01:52:25 PM »
Quote
Jim Hunt:  Here's the view from the webcam earlier this morning, together with the route plan for the voyage:

Great stuff. Thanks!

JER

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3377 on: August 13, 2015, 07:11:35 PM »
Jim said:

Quote
The Haupag Lloyd cruise ship Hanseatic has just left Kangerlussuaq heading for the eastern end of the Northwest passage via Disko Bay. Here's the view from the webcam earlier this morning, together with the route plan for the voyage:

It appears that Hanseatic will be skipping most parts of Baffin and Ellesmere Islands, so will likely be successful in getting to where they want to go (with the probable exception of Kane Basin). My trip has been postponed to 2016. Too many important planned locations still blocked by heavy ice.
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3378 on: August 13, 2015, 07:36:11 PM »
Don't mean to flood the zone but the owner/operator of EZGif has added a "don't fade from last frame to first" feature after I contacted him.  Here's a version of the Aug 6 through 12 gif I loaded earlier that pauses on the last frame and then jumps direct to the first.



The damage done to the ice on the Pacific side (west in my world) suggests we're going to see a lot more extent drop over the next few weeks.

sedziobs

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3379 on: August 13, 2015, 08:19:28 PM »
Here's a version of the Aug 6 through 12 gif I loaded earlier that pauses on the last frame and then jumps direct to the first.

Everyone has their own preferences, but I think what you have come up with here is the best way to show weekly changes.  Nice job!  It's very convenient to track details when concentrating on individual regions, while at the same time presenting an overview of the entire Arctic.  I appreciate the effort, and I hope you will continue to post such animations on a regular basis.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3380 on: August 13, 2015, 08:49:48 PM »
Sorry to hear that, JER.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Bob Wallace

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3381 on: August 13, 2015, 09:04:15 PM »
" I hope you will continue to post such animations on a regular basis."

If there's interest. (Or at least no call to "Cut it out!".)

Feedback?  Faster/slower?  Crop tighter for this time of year?  One week?  Monthly?

It's possible to add more fading frames between days which should make things 'smoother' but would make the file larger.  Worth the time/bandwidth?

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3382 on: August 13, 2015, 09:05:26 PM »
F. Tnioli, I was looking for a buoy in the Bering Strait a while back and couldn't find one. As it turns out I also saw the new NOAA Buoy yesterday. I hope it will give us data through freeze and thaw
2015/2016.  The wave chart you see on that site is in feet not meters. Here is another data set for the same buoy that is more clear about wave height and period as the chart in the link you gave isn't. 

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=48114


JER

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3383 on: August 13, 2015, 09:05:54 PM »
Thanks, Tor.
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

sedziobs

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3384 on: August 13, 2015, 09:21:57 PM »
Feedback?  Faster/slower?  Crop tighter for this time of year?  One week?  Monthly?

I would say maybe a little bit faster transition between days, though I like the pause at each day as it is now.  That's for weekly at least.  I suppose if you did a monthly animation everything would need to be a little faster.  I don't think extra frames are necessary.  I like the crop area, as even watching the ice in southern Baffin is interesting now.

These are all just my opinions of course.  As I said earlier, I think the animation is already excellent as-is.

Neven

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3385 on: August 13, 2015, 10:23:56 PM »
Sorry to hear that, JER.

Yes, too bad.  :(
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seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3386 on: August 13, 2015, 10:25:42 PM »

Generally I think that both quiet conditions (strong sunlight) and strong storms (strong heat transfer) give good melt this time of year, with moderate storms having poor melting conditions, with neither good sunlight nor good heat transfer.


Hi Blaine, I wanted to add something to this before. I pretty much agreed with all your comment except for what I put in italics. Weak cold cloudy storms may not be much over compact pack as you say, but they have been coming and going over the already broken ice of Beaufort and Chukchi for two weeks, and the satellite images speak for themselves.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3387 on: August 13, 2015, 10:31:48 PM »
Personally I'd like to see MODIS confirmation that the Bellot Strait vicinity for example is currently navigable.

The clouds have moved and Bellot Strait doesn't look too bad but there's still some ice swilling around a bit further south:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2015-images/#CAA
"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

Laurent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3388 on: August 13, 2015, 10:44:11 PM »
Perhaps it is my imagination but it looks like a wedge is forming along that possible flow...Things become very interesting.
You must zoom to see it.
http://1.usa.gov/1J6RV47
Well, may be it is only that big low that stir the ice right there...

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3389 on: August 13, 2015, 10:46:06 PM »
My trip has been postponed to 2016. Too many important planned locations still blocked by heavy ice.

I'm also sorry to hear that Jenny  :(
"The evil that is in the world always comes from ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence, if they lack understanding." Albert Camus, The Plague

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3390 on: August 13, 2015, 11:56:08 PM »
Here is the same place on the Arctic Ocean, along north CAA, roughly same date, about halfway from Greenland to Beaufort.
Top one is 2012 (Aug 15)
Bottom one is 2015 (Aug 12)
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 04:29:17 AM by Gonzo »

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3391 on: August 14, 2015, 01:26:25 AM »
Laurent
Quote
Perhaps it is my imagination but it looks like a wedge is forming along that possible flow...Things become very interesting.
Good catch. I've been looking at that on the concentration maps, and when I look at 2012 satellites, that whole area is pretty uniform all the time, even in first half of September. In early Sept. 2012, that whole region through there looks more like 2015 looked in July.  There's also a big intrusion opening up from the Lincoln Sea towards that area. Will those 3 intrusions join up?
« Last Edit: August 14, 2015, 01:36:17 AM by Gonzo »

JER

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3392 on: August 14, 2015, 03:48:59 AM »
Thanks Neven and Jim.

The good news is that the polar bears, walruses and seals in those areas have some decent summer ice for a change!
As a result of climate change, "The Arctic is the ecological equivalent of a war zone." -- Jenny E. Ross

Shared Humanity

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3393 on: August 14, 2015, 05:45:10 AM »
Is "Big MAC" for Mega Arctic Cyclone (and a Big one at that!)?

I've read everyone's reasoning or why reaching a record low extent is impossible now, and it's all very sensible, but I also have this nagging feeling that a Black Swan event—or what would have been such in the past—could shatter all expectations. 

As others have said: Are we sure that when the next minimum records are set, we'll see it coming?

I was here in 2012 and am pretty sure no one here saw that coming.

cesium62

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3394 on: August 14, 2015, 06:23:07 AM »
There is no chance of coming close to 2012.

Given the current models 2007 and 2011 is though.

No!  Say it's not so!  Friv is calling an end to the party so soon?

Icebird

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3395 on: August 14, 2015, 08:11:08 AM »

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3396 on: August 14, 2015, 08:18:19 AM »

Pmt111500

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3397 on: August 14, 2015, 08:39:45 AM »
Perhaps it is my imagination but it looks like a wedge is forming along that possible flow...Things become very interesting.
You must zoom to see it.
http://1.usa.gov/1J6RV47
Well, may be it is only that big low that stir the ice right there...

Maybe, maybe not, maybe a bit? (Wasn't too accurate to keep all the grey along so this might be overdone)

NeilT

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3398 on: August 14, 2015, 09:08:12 AM »
Looking at the Bremen maps today Friv, that area which has been going yellow/green above 80N on the Pacific side is now starting to go strongly green.

Not sure it's going to end any time soon.  We have between 3 and 4 weeks left depending on how pessimistic you are of when the melt season will end.

I notice the Atlantic side has also started to disintegrate on the borders too.  The maps don't look anything like ending to me.  More like just beginning a longer slower flush back of all the floating "ice mist"...  Something which his common around this time of year.
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oren

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3399 on: August 14, 2015, 09:27:20 AM »
Looking at the Bremen maps today Friv, that area which has been going yellow/green above 80N on the Pacific side is now starting to go strongly green.

Not sure it's going to end any time soon.  We have between 3 and 4 weeks left depending on how pessimistic you are of when the melt season will end.

I notice the Atlantic side has also started to disintegrate on the borders too.  The maps don't look anything like ending to me.  More like just beginning a longer slower flush back of all the floating "ice mist"...  Something which his common around this time of year.

Not that Friv needs any helping.. but the melting season is far from over. Definitely a lot of ice is still going to melt. It's just that the pace of this melt will not bring us to 2012 levels, though it could lead us to the vicinity of 2011 (and maybe remotely 2007), which is quite impressive in any year and especially after the lousy 2013/2014 combo.