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Rick Aster

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3950 on: September 05, 2015, 11:53:27 PM »
that El Nino is causing a difference in sea surface height, resulting in increased water flow through the Bearing Straight and increased melt on the Pacific side. Comments?

The idea makes perfect sense in strictly physical terms — a warmer Pacific Ocean makes the water expand, resulting in a higher sea level for the Pacific Ocean and more outflow — but I would have thought the magnitude would be too small to notice.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3951 on: September 06, 2015, 01:26:45 AM »
Higher sea levels due to warmer waters do not necessarily cause lateral water movements. That only happens if there is a horizontal pressure gradient. Sea level is higher because the water is less dense and is needed just to equalize pressure.

Like a block of styrofoam floating in water, it doesn't necessarily want to move sideways.

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3952 on: September 06, 2015, 01:50:49 AM »
What sort of wave action on the ice pack should be expected from this storm?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/09/the-2015-arctic-sea-ice-minimum-extent/#comment-211792
Thanks!

So ~4 metre waves in the Laptev Sea region hitting the Laptev side of the forearm and the edge of the ice pack from ~130E-150E!

Adam Ash

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3953 on: September 06, 2015, 01:54:22 AM »
— but I would have thought the magnitude would be too small to notice.

9:43 in the video shows the water surface heights.  Between the Bering Sea and the Chukchi the level difference is between 40 and 80 cm - with the fall direction being into the Arctic from the Pacific.

Considering the very subtle density difference forces which run the various meridoidal circulations around the planet, I would imagine that an 80cm difference in water surface levels over a comparatively short distance would induce a decent flow in the down-hill direction.

[Edit:  Thanks GT; comment re densities vs height noted. But would stuff such as ice floating on the surface of the 'inclined' surface tend to move 'downhill', like debris into an eddy in a stream?]

EarthNull does show some clockwise/anti-clockwise surface currents which are flowing north through the Straight, tho that may not be an indicator of deepwater flow as the surface currents are dictated to a strong degree by wind conditions.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-175.27,66.75,3000
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 10:17:52 AM by Adam Ash »

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3954 on: September 06, 2015, 04:10:11 AM »
Today's U. Bremen update again has most of the action over on the Pacific side.

A lot of the ice in this region is very broken up. Whether it shows as water or, instead, as low concentration ice depends on the thresholds used for plotting it. One day it may be just above threshold, the next day, just below it, or vice versa - hence Neven's term 'peek-a-boo ice'.

A good example is the region around the ice pack edge at about 150W. A lot of that ice disappeared since yesterday according to the U. Bremen maps. And a more detailed MODIS image confirms this ice is in a sorry state.

Click on gif to crossfade between yesterday's and today's maps...


tzupancic

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3955 on: September 06, 2015, 07:24:17 AM »
Checking in late, just a couple of comments. First, I would like to distinguish between the significance of ultimate 'sea ice extent' and 'sea ice area' minima and broader climatic phenomena with regard to understanding the significance of the 2015 melt.  That said, it appears to me that the reduction in Arctic Sea Ice volume is the real story of 2015. 

A lot has been said about 'melt ponds' and 'melting momentum'... great stuff, but why was 2015 so different from the last couple of years? Melt ponds? 

It would appear that it comes down to heat.  And where is that heat coming from? the sun? the air? the water?. 

The water makes most sense. So, as the minimum extent story plays out, I am suggesting that the heat in the arctic ocean will continue to melt ice from below, regardless of surface freezing and extent numbers, and that this ongoing melt from below is a significant factor in defining the real impact of the 2015 melt season.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 07:36:02 AM by tzupancic »

sofouuk

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3956 on: September 06, 2015, 11:08:04 AM »
guys, come on - there is absolutely no way thermal expansion of the water column in the arctic due to El Niño (primarily a southern pacific phenomenon, btw) would raise arctic waters by 40-80 cm. that should be intuitively obvious, but if it isn't, remember that El Niño occurs when warmer subsurface waters come to the surface - it doesn't mean the overall water column is warmer, which it would have to be to cause thermal expansion. can't view the video on my phone bcz I'm on the wrong side of the great firewall of China, but I really doubt that that is what Paul is saying (tho he has advanced several dodgy ideas before, for what that's worth). changes in weather (surface air pressure) related to El Niño might cause arctic water column height to vary, tho I'd still be skeptical how closely you could connect that change to El Niño, rather than just random weather

werther

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3957 on: September 06, 2015, 11:20:56 AM »
Adam Ash, hi,
You wonder whether I really believe the melt season is over. Well, I don’t. Nature couldn’t care less what I do or do not believe.
It’s just that I hold some interest in geo, climate and weather. The Arctic has been the main focus of that interest for years now. Although I haven’t given it as much time as I used to this year, I still work through the forecasts every now and then to form an opinion.

Seems ECMWF fooled me again. Their 10 day forecasts are, let’s say, dynamic. The strong High over the CAB forming by next Thursday has been swept to the Beaufort in today’s model run, leaving room for this < 975 Mb Laptev Rat:



Will it fade in tomorrow’s run? If not, this season might still produce some remarkable features in week 38.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3958 on: September 06, 2015, 11:26:11 AM »
If you think back we saw some record values ( should we still be in PDO neg) in Dec/Jan/Feb as the remnant of the record Feb KW pushed on up the west coast and aided 'The Blob' so my simple head does see pulses of warm working north and south from landfall on the Peruvian coasts?

If it truly is 'flow' that we see we had another big KW in late winter and smaller ones through spring/summer so we should see 'impact' from these over winter? Another low ice Bering/Okhotsk winter to come?

Maybe next years Pacific sector will see rapid retreat if the 'old ice' is gone and ice development is pinned by basal melt from ingress of Pacific waters ( via Alaskan Current) over re-freeze?
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kingbum

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3959 on: September 06, 2015, 11:43:32 AM »
Interesting I called for a potentially historic minimum and an early start to the refreeze in the beginning of August and everyone wanted to rip my head off...Right now it looks like day 244 maybe the actual minimum making it the earliest in the satellite era by one day. 1987 the minimum was set on  day 245....Interesting indeed

Nightvid Cole

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3960 on: September 06, 2015, 01:11:09 PM »
Higher sea levels due to warmer waters do not necessarily cause lateral water movements. That only happens if there is a horizontal pressure gradient. Sea level is higher because the water is less dense and is needed just to equalize pressure.

Like a block of styrofoam floating in water, it doesn't necessarily want to move sideways.

Not a good analogy because warmed ocean water is a liquid while Styrofoam is a solid. A better analogy would be to vegetable oil poured onto water. In this case, once a large amount has been added, it does not stay in one large blob where it was poured; rather, it spreads out horizontally.

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3961 on: September 06, 2015, 02:02:14 PM »
Here is a repost from earlier this year

Plinius, Yes the moisture transport changes salinity also but "pressure head " differences are what I was referring to. Here is a Q&A with Rebecca Woodgate.

Question from Sam: Why does the water flow from the Chukchi Sea into the Deep Basin?
Answer: I asked Chief Scientist Rebecca Woodgate to answer this question. She has been studying the physical oceanography of the Arctic for over a decade.

"We have some ideas of why water flows north through the Chukchi into the Arctic, and it's to do with the ocean and atmosphere circulation of the whole world. Basically, water evaporates from the Atlantic ocean, is carried over to the Pacific ocean by air currents, and rains back down on the Pacific. So now we have "too much" water in the Pacific and it has to get back somehow, so it flows back through the Chukchi Sea and the Arctic. That's part of it. The ocean currents could be doing the same sort of thing - pushing too much water into the Pacific, so it leaks out at the top into the Arctic. We call these effects "pressure head" effects, because there is more water on one side (the Pacific) than on the other (the Arctic) and so that drives a flow. It's the same effect as causes your toilet to flush - kinda. The winds drive the water in the Chukchi Sea too, but the average wind is actually towards the south, and tries to drive the water back south against this pressure head. The effect of the wind is however less than the pressure head effect, so on average the water still goes north."

El Nino does cause sea level rise in the Eastern Pacific and part of that water flows north and can be tracked on it's passage north along the Pacific  coast by tide gauges . However it takes months to get to San Francisco and even longer to get all the way to the Bering Sea so any current sea level anomaly in the Bering Strait might have been influenced by 2014 conditions in Eastern tropical Pacific but that is only speculation .
 For more info on this subject you might want to read references unthread by Neven # 2398 and Vergent # 2400.
 Paul was also making claims about heat flux and the blob earlier on this site but when challenged he disappeared . So unless he is willing to reference his opinions and how he arrived at them Mr. Beckwith's info might be viewed with a certain amount of skepticism .




« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 04:14:54 PM by Bruce Steele »

DavidR

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3962 on: September 06, 2015, 02:33:31 PM »
Interesting I called for a potentially historic minimum and an early start to the refreeze in the beginning of August and everyone wanted to rip my head off...Right now it looks like day 244 maybe the actual minimum making it the earliest in the satellite era by one day. 1987 the minimum was set on  day 245....Interesting indeed
KB
It's a little premature to  claim victory when there is up to  three weeks left before the latest  minimum date.

The current uptick  is as likely be a short term reaction to  the previous cyclone as it is to  be the minimum. There have been short term increases right through August and there is no reason to think that this is just  another short term uptick.  The recent average decline from this date is over 200K.  We still haven't seem any explanation from you as to why the season would end early. Third lowest between 2007  and 2011 still seems the most  likely  outcome.

Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3963 on: September 06, 2015, 03:20:03 PM »
Glenn Tamblyn
Quote
Higher sea levels due to warmer waters do not necessarily cause lateral water movements.
El Nino itself, as I understand it,  is caused by warm water building up in the western side towards Asia, causing higher sea level, then hitting a tipping point and all that warm water flows back over the surface of the colder water in the eastern Pacific towards south and central America, but I agree, I doubt there would be much effect in the Arctic from this differential, due to various other factors.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 04:38:17 PM by Gonzo »

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3964 on: September 06, 2015, 03:32:03 PM »
sofouuk
Quote
guys, come on - there is absolutely no way thermal expansion of the water column in the arctic due to El Niño (primarily a southern pacific phenomenon, btw)
He may have said 'el nino', but I think he's referring to the Pacific Blob, which is an unusual phenomena. However, I agree, the difference in sea levels would likely not cause much, if any effect in the Arctic.
The Pacific is always higher than the Atlantic. When they built the Panama Canal, they noticed that the Pacific was higher than Atlantic.
However, if that blob gets any warmer (next year) and Greenland meltwaters cool the N. Atlantic, it could cause a flow of warmer water. As far as I understand it, El Nino itself , is when warm water builds up on the surface of western pacific, compounding sea level rise, along with wind pushing the water constantly in that direction, until it reaches a tipping point and the warm water flows back over the surface of the ocean, over the cooler eastern side (towards S. and central America), bringing moisture with it.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 04:38:05 PM by Gonzo »

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3965 on: September 06, 2015, 03:50:13 PM »
kingbum
Quote
Interesting I called for a potentially historic minimum and an early start to the refreeze in the beginning of August and everyone wanted to rip my head off...Right now it looks like day 244 maybe the actual minimum making it the earliest in the satellite era by one day. 1987 the minimum was set on  day 245....Interesting indeed.
Re-freeze may set in temporarily, but it will melt again. You are going to see an 'indian summer' in the Arctic this year.

crandles

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3966 on: September 06, 2015, 04:28:15 PM »
As far as I understand it, El Nino itself (which we are not in one yet)

Not yet? What definition are you using? Most would say it started at least 6 months ago.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_feb2015/ensodisc.html
5th Feb 2015 only a watch

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_mar2015/ensodisc.html
5th March 2015 - El Nino Advisory

(El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.)

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3967 on: September 06, 2015, 04:34:16 PM »
Gonzo, Yes we are in an El Nino, the swelling in the western Pacific has long since left the station and transferred it's heat and water mass to the Eastern Pacific. Atmospheric conditions have also linked.
 Beckwith is wrong about the blob moving heat via currents north of the Bering strait as I have mentioned several times already on this blog and maybe there is no point in repeating those sources again . You do need to read the posts up tread I posted by Neven and Vergent if you are going to ignore what I have said and please source your claims !

magnamentis

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3968 on: September 06, 2015, 05:04:33 PM »
Interesting I called for a potentially historic minimum and an early start to the refreeze in the beginning of August and everyone wanted to rip my head off...Right now it looks like day 244 maybe the actual minimum making it the earliest in the satellite era by one day. 1987 the minimum was set on  day 245....Interesting indeed
i cannot see anything that would support such an assumption. considering air and water temps as well as the current weather situation there is room for quite some more loss still. as to the time factor, it thing this is one of the things which cannot be predicted at all, perhaps 3 days in advance one can get an idea what can happen but not more.

weatherdude88

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3969 on: September 06, 2015, 05:37:12 PM »
As far as I understand it, El Nino itself (which we are not in one yet)

Not yet? What definition are you using? Most would say it started at least 6 months ago.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_feb2015/ensodisc.html
5th Feb 2015 only a watch

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_disc_mar2015/ensodisc.html
5th March 2015 - El Nino Advisory

(El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue.)

We very clearly have not met the criterion for El Niño as of yet even though it is imminent. NOAA defines El Niño as a 3-month running average of the sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region that must remain at or above +0.5 degrees. Once the JJA ONI value updates we will have an official El Niño. (This update will be the fifth consecutive 3 month running average greater than .5 Celsius) NOAA El Niño conditions are defined as:

1. Departures in the Niño-3.4 index equal to or exceeding +0.5C for a single month.
2. The tropical Pacific atmosphere should be consistent with El Niño. In particular, rainfall should be enhanced near the Date Line and suppressed near Indonesia, and the surface winds across parts of the equatorial Pacific should be anomalously westerly.
3.A forecast that the ONI will equal or exceed +0.5C for several seasons in a row.

An official El Niño and El Niño conditions are different mechanisms. Please do not confuse them.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2015, 06:29:57 PM by weatherdude88 »

crandles

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3970 on: September 06, 2015, 06:07:15 PM »
We are in El Nino Conditions and an El Nino episode will undoubtedly be announced very shortly. That El Nino episode looks like it will begin with FMA season and need to last until at least JJA which is past even if the number is not yet officially released.

Saying 'not in an El Nino yet' without specifying conditions or episode seems misleading to me. Even 'not in an El Nino episode yet' looks dubious as 'El Nino episode has not yet been declared' seems better.

Vergent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3971 on: September 06, 2015, 06:38:54 PM »



"What's in a name? That which we call a rose
By any other name would smell as sweet." Shakespeare

Verg

jdallen

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3972 on: September 06, 2015, 08:36:36 PM »
guys, come on - there is absolutely no way thermal expansion of the water column in the arctic due to El Niño (primarily a southern pacific phenomenon, btw) would raise arctic waters by 40-80 cm. that should be intuitively obvious, but if it isn't, remember that El Niño occurs when warmer subsurface waters come to the surface - it doesn't mean the overall water column is warmer, which it would have to be to cause thermal expansion. can't view the video on my phone bcz I'm on the wrong side of the great firewall of China, but I really doubt that that is what Paul is saying (tho he has advanced several dodgy ideas before, for what that's worth). changes in weather (surface air pressure) related to El Niño might cause arctic water column height to vary, tho I'd still be skeptical how closely you could connect that change to El Niño, rather than just random weather
I concur, sofouuk. 

Among other of the many problems Paul's idea has is that the water has a lot of other places to go. Far easier for thermal increases in volume to spread out across the Pacific than go north.  Further, the increase can't be static - there is nothing to sustain the gradient over time - no confinement, gravitational (which would effectively reduce the gradient), etc.  I'm afraid his idea was I completely thought through and fails right from the start.
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Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3973 on: September 06, 2015, 08:52:23 PM »
crandles
Quote
Not yet? What definition are you using? Most would say it started at least 6 months ago.

weatherdude88
Quote
We very clearly have not met the criterion for El Niño as of yet even though it is imminent.
I agree with weatherdude. An El Nino is not really complete without the accompanying weather patterns, which are not clear yet, however, there is warm surface waters in the eastern Pacific.
Anyway, if people want to have a simpler definition, fine, but back to the topic about sea levels in warm and cold areas, which is relevant to Paul Beckwith's point about warm and cold SSTs creating a differential in sea level in the Arctic (similar to what happens as El Nino begins)

plinius

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3974 on: September 06, 2015, 09:27:51 PM »
Gonzo, what's missing for an El Nino?
We have already westerly wind anomalies in the whole tropical pacific, easterly in the 200 hPa level. Plus the OLR has a nice El Nino signature:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

There is nothing missing anymore.

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3975 on: September 06, 2015, 11:58:34 PM »
The funny thing is that CPC was going to call for El Nino in March (started in Nov 2014) but a small change in the baseline made the Feb month ONindex fall below the threshold of +0.5 C. For the three months before that and the following five ones (including August) the index has been above the threshold. The CPC just made the El Nino 2015 official (since August is the required fifth consecutive month above +0.5 C). No conspiracy theory, NCEP regularly adapts the baseline to remove or detrend global warming effect.

Nevertheless, it is just numbers. As Vergent shows in one map, there is no much discussion. It is the most intense El Nino since 1998. Current SST anomaly in Ecuator region around between 150W and 120W is going above 2C. And Plinius described all required patterns that indicate el Nino, which as I said is crystal clear this year.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

What Vergent map shows is that the whole North Pacific is out of norm!!!

For me El Nino started in 2014, that led to warm surface temps in Winter; since Spring 2014 the anomalous subsurface heat content has been well above average (another indicator of El Nino coming). Funny too, this year El Nino has been declared with still very high subsurface heat content. Usually the heat content is declining by the time the surface tempeatures rocket out. Not this time.

It is an El Nino 2014-2015-2016. See the ramp up of Centra Pacific SST anomalies starting March 2014, positive since July 2014.



See themaveraged subsurface anomalous heat content, put in context, positive and very high for historical standards. All this average heat is taken below the surface along the Equator (averaged out from 0 to 250 m depth) and typically it rises to the surface by Winter. Huge amount of energy to be released yet:



« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 12:32:54 AM by seaicesailor »

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3976 on: September 07, 2015, 12:09:46 AM »

There is a nice "El Niño 2015?",  it can get the question mark removed from the title now.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.0.html

But since this melting season thread has its days counted, maybe the mods could be lenient with these off topic discussions :--) (if they keep reading it ;--) )

LRC1962

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3977 on: September 07, 2015, 12:21:42 AM »
Here are a few links that show, because of today's global heat and what it has impacted traditional El Nino weather could be non existent.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/biggest-el-nino-of-our-generation-may-be-tempered-by-the-blob-1.3194415
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/this-year-s-el-nino-will-be-the-strongest-in-18-years-wmo-says-1.3212589
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/us/news/articles/us-weather/winter-preview-el-nino-contributes-to-a-tale-of-two-seasons/56531/
The consensus seems to be, we have no clue what Nov-May will be like, all we know is the El Nino will be one of the biggest in resent history.
Putting in prospective of how it all will impact the Arctic, I do not think anyone could dare predict, because there are too many complicating variables that never have been a part of the past. These include, The Blob, TTT-RRR, I suspect the cold North Atlantic as that could help setup an intense blocking high. Then you may have to include the direction the hot air masses coming off the Sahara and the direction it decides to take as a result of the direction the weather systems take if the blocking high sets up again. All these were not around in the early 90's and therefore realy put major question makes as to what will happen this winter and next summer  and how those weather patterns will impact the Arctic.  :-\
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Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3978 on: September 07, 2015, 02:01:56 AM »
plinius
Quote
Gonzo, what's missing for an El Nino?
The Westerlies.
They are very borderline so far. Maybe next week.
Triple R will crush them though.
Now back to the topic. What Beckwith was saying is that just like an El Nino, there is a sea level difference between one side of the Arctic than the other. El Nino is caused by the same type of differential, of heat and sea level. So the suggestion was, it is something to consider. I personally don't think it will make much difference this year, but if the Pacific Blob remains, would be more and more significant, with the same dynamics that cause an El Nino.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 02:09:18 AM by Gonzo »

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3979 on: September 07, 2015, 04:09:10 AM »
A thinning and fraying at the edges of the ESS 'forearm' ice pack projection, when compared to yesterday, is the most notable feature of today's U. Bremen update. Recall the forearm shattered into large chunks about a week ago. It now appears to have deteriorated further due to the storm that just passed through and its associated waves. The projection's shoulder on the Laptev Sea side has also retreated.

As usual there are lots of comings and goings of low concentration ice around the Beaufort Sea area - the peek-a-boo ice effect due to lots of floes sloshing around - but with no clear trend as to whether there is a net coming or a net going.

  On the Canadian side, a yellow patch has appeared amongst the thickest ice pack, signifying a reduction to ~75% concentration ice, at ~60W and 7 degrees from the Pole. This is presumably associated with the low pressure system passing through there - it might even be the eye.

Click on gif to crossfade between the two latest daily maps...
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 04:17:54 AM by slow wing »

Greenbelt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3980 on: September 07, 2015, 04:59:48 AM »
U Bremen Sept 6 chart not seeing any ice left in the NW passage main route it looks like?

JMP

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3981 on: September 07, 2015, 06:23:05 AM »
If you want to ask where could more melt come from....
Does one need to go all the way to the Pacific for warmer water?  From what I understand there is a warm thermocline roughly about 150 meters down? or less? depending on mixing.  And, isn't this the time (in an average year) for a regular amount of bottom melt to continue anyway?

The possible increase in upwelling of warmer water is perhaps now most dependent on weather from above stirring it up. And, that's probably still critical at this stage in the progression toward a zero day in some future September minimum (I think that's what we saw in 2012) And, yes the dipole, but isn't the warmth (this late in the year) mostly coming from below?

(I think too that possibly the fresh water coming in from the land via rivers may likely be significantly (if slightly) increasingly warmer - I haven't seen - can't find - any information on that.) 

But my point is that the stored energy in the water below the ice seems to be underrated in the late season discussion and that's the nearest source of warmth.  Or, have I got it wrong?



 

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3982 on: September 07, 2015, 08:18:12 AM »
U Bremen Sept 6 chart not seeing any ice left in the NW passage main route it looks like?

It's there but has the same green color as the chosen for lands. Unfortunate selection of color, lol

Might be open tho

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3983 on: September 07, 2015, 08:41:33 AM »
plinius
Quote
Gonzo, what's missing for an El Nino?
The Westerlies.
They are very borderline so far. Maybe next week.
Triple R will crush them though.




Right. Intense bursts since July. Persistent since March. Right, crushed.

Jim Hunt

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3984 on: September 07, 2015, 09:11:34 AM »
U Bremen Sept 6 chart not seeing any ice left in the NW passage main route it looks like?

There's plenty still there on Hamburg Uni AMSR2. See also:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.0.html
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

F.Tnioli

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3985 on: September 07, 2015, 10:08:08 AM »
Wipneus' PIOMAS for august. By September 1st, PIOMAS volume went way below DMI's, by some 1k+ km^3. But to me, what PIOMAS shows for August still feels understatement. Expected more melt, expected beating 2013. Unless something as unusual (in PIOMAS terms) as 2008 happens in September, that's not going to happen. In PIOMAS, that is.
To everyone: before posting in a melting season topic, please be sure to know contents of this moderator's post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261893.html#msg261893 . Thanks!

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3986 on: September 07, 2015, 02:05:25 PM »

ITP Buoys 70, 81, 82, 85, 86, 87 at Beaufort region just adjacent to ice still report temperatures around or above -1ºC from surface to depths about -25 m.

This is consistent with the yellowish/reddish color of SST anomalies map in that region. Still potential for melting in this area.

For next days, forecast dispersion of ice in this area but also of much colder weather.

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3987 on: September 07, 2015, 03:11:35 PM »
seaicesailor.

Yes like I said, they are borderline. Maybe in a week.
But the RRR will annihilate them.

Gonzo

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3988 on: September 07, 2015, 03:12:57 PM »
.
WHAT THE ! ? ! !

http://arctic-roos.org/
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 04:43:48 PM by Gonzo »

AmbiValent

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3989 on: September 07, 2015, 03:55:06 PM »
WHAT THE ! ? ! !
It's obviously the shadow of Darth Vader on the Arctic.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Bruce Steele

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3990 on: September 07, 2015, 04:01:05 PM »
Seaicesailor, Gotta be a little careful with the ITP dataset and check "the last Profile" date . The only current date is ITP 82 with -1.2 C  and ITP 85 at -.5 five days ago at six meters to the surface on it's Microcat.  Sometimes a buoy will start to send data again but data from 70,81,86, and 87 is from at least a month ago. Glad to see you're going there to look around however and you can go back thru the completed missions data to see what the T/S contours looked like years past.
 

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3991 on: September 07, 2015, 05:21:37 PM »
Seaicesailor, Gotta be a little careful with the ITP dataset and check "the last Profile" date . The only current date is ITP 82 with -1.2 C  and ITP 85 at -.5 five days ago at six meters to the surface on it's Microcat.  Sometimes a buoy will start to send data again but data from 70,81,86, and 87 is from at least a month ago. Glad to see you're going there to look around however and you can go back thru the completed missions data to see what the T/S contours looked like years past.

oops thank you

seaicesailor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3992 on: September 07, 2015, 06:38:21 PM »
An interesting weather pattern starting this Friday was mentioned before. Now closer in time.


marcmczero

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3993 on: September 07, 2015, 11:04:27 PM »
.
WHAT THE ! ? ! !

http://arctic-roos.org/

I think this message board is about to go crazy....say it can't be real.

Nick_Naylor

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3994 on: September 07, 2015, 11:33:18 PM »
It doesn't look particularly real.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2015, 11:44:00 PM by Nick_Naylor »

stackmaster

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3995 on: September 07, 2015, 11:42:54 PM »
This one is not to difficult to understand if you go to the link and see the graphic of the Arctic with a 90 degree pie slice from the Greenland sea to the western CAA with no ice indicated.  It is clearly a glitch.

helorime

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3996 on: September 08, 2015, 12:44:30 AM »
Darth Arctic
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3997 on: September 08, 2015, 01:30:21 AM »
Uh oh! Santa has gone over to the Dark Side...  :(

slow wing

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3998 on: September 08, 2015, 04:32:27 AM »
Nothing too dramatic in the U. Bremen update.

The low pressure system above Greenland is still producing a yellow patch but surely it has nowhere to go this late in the season and will just refreeze.

Is the Pacific side ready to just freeze up or will there instead be a bit more action before it does? Climate Reanalyser is starting to predict a bit more wind around the Arctic than it had been over the next several days - nothing major but winds above 10 m/s. So it looks like we will be in the game for new ice minima over the next week at least.

Click on gif to compare the past two days...

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: The 2015 melting season
« Reply #3999 on: September 08, 2015, 09:24:27 AM »
I think we can expect little change over the next 2 to 3 days before compression driven losses resume at the weekend.

Northerly winds into the Beaufort and Chukchi may promote some increases up to Thursday, but that depends on the losses in the remaining detatched and fragmented ice. Southerlies in through Laptev begin to develop also, but these remain weak and/or poor orientated until about Friday.




As the high pressure shifts towards the North American side, those southerlies over the Laptev sea shift and strengthen, promoting compacting, while the northerlies near the Bering Strait fade. This should allow for some losses to begin again.




This favourable pattern for losses continues into the early days of next week.




This will probably be the last shot at getting below 2011 before the refreeze proper kicks in
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel