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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6150 on: October 07, 2020, 05:59:24 PM »
—- Daimler’s approach vs. Tesla’s.  Giga Berlin to use 4680 cells.
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/7/20, 3:40 AM
It's funny. When you watch Daimler & Tesla investor presentations, you can really see the difference between the two companies
Daimler's CEO talks about the company like it's a spreadsheet
But @elonmusk and Drew talk about engineering and products

I know which I'm investing in
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1313745938385575936
[2min vid intercuts the two presentations]

Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/7/20, 10:33 AM

 I do so wish that more companies would put down their spreadsheets for a moment and focus on making products that move your heart
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313850036564963328

WMC: true, Tesla moves your heart.  hey, what kind of cells are you planning to move our hearts with in Berlin?  CATL LFP? 2170 cells... 4680? I know you said you’re making cells in berlin
Elon MuskBerlin will use 4680 cell with structural battery pack & front & rear single piece castings. Also, a new paint system.
Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven.

WMC: elon you fucker you sandbagged that presentation so hard
Elon Musk:   Prototypes are a piece of cake, but high volume production of a new technology is extremely hard. Takes much longer than people think to climb the production S-curve. I can’t emphasize enough that production is by *far* the hard part.
< “Large scale manufacturing, especially of new technology, is somewhere between 1,000% and 10,000% harder than the prototype. I would really regard, at this point, prototypes as a trivial joke," — @elonmusk
Elon MuskWe do expect to make heavy use of LFP for medium range cars & stationary storage
WMC:  That’s what I expected. Drew seemed to indicate the CATL LFP modules could fit into the structural battery pack


—- Giga Berlin:  The Forests
Nice to see “afforestation” rather than deforestation!
Tesla has affirmed it will plant three times the area of trees it removed.
A “sustainable mixed forest” is planned.
Quote
Naturraum für Generationen (@nfg_brandenburg)10/6/20, 12:36 PM Die @Tesla - Aufforstung hat begonnen!
Den Anfang machen die Kiefern, die circa 30% der Fläche ausfüllen werden: Heute und morgen werden 50.000 Setzlinge bei Krügersdorf, Mixdorf und Merz gepflanzt.
Vielen Dank an unsere Helfer, die diese Mammutaufgabe mit uns bewältigen!

[ Translation:
The @Tesla afforestation has begun!
The pine trees, which will fill about 30% of the area, will start: today and tomorrow, 50,000 seedlings will be planted at Krügersdorf, Mixdorf and Merz.
Many thanks to our helpers who are doing this mammoth task with us! ]
https://twitter.com/nfg_brandenburg/status/1313518520592986113
Photo below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6151 on: October 07, 2020, 09:58:14 PM »
—- More Elon tweets today re:  manufacturing
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/7/20, 10:53 AM
Berlin will use 4680 cell with structural battery pack & front & rear single piece castings. Also, a new paint system.
Lot of new technology will happen in Berlin, which means significant production risk. Fremont & Shanghai will transition in ~2 years when new tech is proven.

< How do you view this risk as difficult but better than m3 ramp? I don’t want to see you go through that kind of pain again.
Elon Musk:  The Model 3 production ramp was sheer agony for two years, but that was do or die for Tesla. No US car company has reached high volume production with sustained free cash flow in ~100 years. Hundreds of car startups all died or were absorbed for peanuts by big three.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313864182350204928
Elon Musk:  Even GM & Chrysler went bankrupt in 2009. Ford and Tesla are the only US car companies that have avoided bankruptcy.
Elon Musk:  But now we understand production much better. It will be our primary competitive advantage long-term.
< And the beautiful thing is each gigafactory is like a new product and is better than the prior
Elon Musk:  Yes, the Gigafactory is the hardest & most critical product

< Will Giga Berlin stamp the middle of the main body as one piece as well?
Elon Musk:  Battery pack will be a bonded structure with cells providing shear transfer between steel upper & lower face sheets, eliminating most of the center body parts while providing better torsional rigidity & improved polar moment or inertia. This is a *major* breakthrough.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313869332003401728

Major mystery solved:
< How do you repair rear end damage with frame involvement, if everything is just one piece?
Elon Musk: The crash absorption rails can be cut off & replaced with a bolted part for collision repair

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1313874241134063616

< When Sandy Munro mocked up 4680 cells in a $TSLA 3/Y pack, he said it should unprecedented rigidity:
 “I know all you short sellers are gonna say ‘well everyone’s gonna do that!’. Well, they aren’t doing it” — Sandy Munro
Video clip:  https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1309558521252380673
Whole Mars Catalog:   catch the full video here! you don’t want to miss it!   ➡️youtu.be/GkQga-mzO4Y
Elon Musk: Sandy Munro understands engineering
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6152 on: October 08, 2020, 12:06:55 PM »
We did not get the new Tesla wiring architecture with the early Model Y.  That architecture can be seen here

https://insideevs.com/news/361298/new-tesla-wiring-system-promises-to-cause-a-revolution/#:~:text=Elektrek%20revealed%20the%20patent%20application,of%20wires%20(1.5%20km).

Quote
metimes people get to ask a very simple question: “Why do we do this in this way?” When Tesla does it, we often see amazing results. Such as this, which has to do with car wiring architecture. In search of a simpler way to assemble them, Tesla may have made a revolution.

The patent abstract can be seen here

http://appft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-adv.html&r=48&f=G&l=50&d=PG01&p=1&S1=(%22Tesla,+inc%22.AS.)&OS=AN/%22Tesla,+inc%22&RS=AN/%22Tesla,+inc%22

I guess some people might ask why does Tesla bother to patent when they give the rights to use.  But the answer is simple, to stop others from blocking Tesla from success.

I was certainly looking forward to this, it was first mooted as really viable in the 90's but technology needed to catch up before it became viable.

If Tesla manage to deliver this in Berlin, then it is going to cut the cost of manufacture again.

They have had nearly 2 years to perfect it and it will be more than 2 years by the time Berlin is ready. The factory is more closely situated to Grohmann, allowing a test line of new assembly equipment with a much faster turnaround than the US or China.

For me this ties into Musks statements about the speed of the production line and stoppages.  Let alone the sheer reduction in materials used.
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Yuha

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6153 on: October 08, 2020, 04:23:40 PM »
We did not get the new Tesla wiring architecture with the early Model Y. 

[...]

If Tesla manage to deliver this in Berlin, then it is going to cut the cost of manufacture again.

They have had nearly 2 years to perfect it and it will be more than 2 years by the time Berlin is ready. The factory is more closely situated to Grohmann, allowing a test line of new assembly equipment with a much faster turnaround than the US or China.

Maybe the wiring architecture is waiting for the rumored new chip. The schedule in this article matches Berlin production quite well:
Quote
According to industry news, Broadcom and Tesla are cooperating to develop ultra-large HPC chips for vehicles. They are produced using TSMC’s 7nm process and are the first to use TSMC’s SoW advanced packaging technology. Each 12-inch wafer can only be cut out. 25 chips. Production of the new chips will begin in the fourth quarter, with an initial production of about 2,000 wafers, and it is expected to enter full mass production after the fourth quarter of next year.

It is understood that the HPC chip created by Broadcom for Tesla will become the core computing special application chip (ASIC) for Tesla electric vehicles in the future, which can be used to control and support advanced driver assistance systems, electric vehicle power transmission, and automotive entertainment.
https://www.chinatimes.com/newspapers/20200817000176-260202
2020/08/17 (Google translated)

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6154 on: October 08, 2020, 05:00:29 PM »
Yuha, I think that is HW4.

I was looking at the designs and there is a significant reduction in wiring by discrete battery connects local to the hub which runs the endpoint.

The hubs are unlikely to run this silicon as it seems to be the main ASIC (AI chip).  Hubs are unlikely to require chips larger than a micro SD card and you get hundreds of them on a wafer.

I guess we just have to be patient and see what arrives but it is worth speculating about.  I haven't heard anything more about the wiring but it is a clear cost cutting initiative and also a significant speed boost on the assembly line.  Right now they need to keep door panels open to connect wiring as the vehicles are assembled and the robots struggle to handle the cables.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6155 on: October 11, 2020, 04:18:24 AM »
Elon Musk is one again in twitter spreading viciously misleading lies about coronavirus.

Once more he uses the 14 day delay between positive test and death to downplay the threat and maximize the lies.

This bizarre abandonement of science will lead to Tesla failure.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6156 on: October 11, 2020, 05:06:22 AM »
Archimid, people don’t give a whit about what Musk thinks about coronavirus.  What’s making news is the President being hospitalized, being crazy on talk radio for two hours; holding illegal rallies at the White House; and infecting his entire staff. 
If Musk’s opinions were affecting Tesla, the board would stop him from tweeting about it!  His tweets may upset you, but mainstream media and the general public don’t care, and clearly the board sees no harm in it.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2020, 07:53:11 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6157 on: October 11, 2020, 12:38:38 PM »
The act of abandoning science in favor of Trumpism signals decay. Elon Musk surrendered to Donald Trump and fakeness. He will become fake, like Trump. He surrendered.

Elon Musk is taking easy road. Just lie, steal and kill your way through success. It's working mightily for Trump.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6158 on: October 11, 2020, 07:42:58 PM »
Quote
Gary Black (@garyblack00) 10/8/20, 4:50 PM
$TSLA 3Q earnings will be released Wed Oct 21 (3rd Wed of Oct). Every other earnings release going back to 2016 has been on 4th or 5th Wednesday after the quarter.
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1314307210642624516
< I wouldn't read too much into it. Last Q3 in Oct was 23rd, July was 22nd, now it's 21st...maybe they just didn't want to scare everybody so close to Halloween?

Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2020 earnings call with Elon Musk set for October 21
October 8, 2020
Quote
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will be posting its Q2 2020 financial results on Wednesday, October 21, 2020. After the closing bell, the company will release a brief advisory with a link to its Q3 2020 Update Letter. TSLA will hold its regular Q&A session for the third quarter at 2:30 PM PST (5:30 PM EST). Retail and institutional investors, along with analysts, will discuss the all-electric car maker’s financial results for the second quarter.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-tsla-q3-earnings-call-date/

If you own Tesla stock, you can use say.com/tesla to vote on questions to be asked during the Q&A, or to suggest your own.

—-
“Moving forward, the Tesla FUD propaganda campaign has been rendered, for all intents and purposes, ineffectual and inconsequential.”
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1313970201621344257

—-
Quote
ALEX (@ajtourville) 10/9/20, 6:02 PM
Legacy auto whispered to Tesla: “You're not strong enough to withstand the storm”

Tesla whispered back: “I am the storm”
$TSLA
https://twitter.com/ajtourville/status/1314687766916067328

At the link: 90 sec. vid: Sandy Munro (in a suit!):  OEM’s must let go of their ICE anchor If they are to survive

“OEM’s will just end up abandoning ship.”
https://twitter.com/benchrispinb/status/1314710613894062084
At the link:  Sad but perfect GIF:  that confused old guy in the door of his swamped minivan in a flooded Houston underpass (being urged by onlookers to abandon it and swim to safety)


—- Tesla Giga Shanghai roars back into action in pursuit of record Q4 deliveries
 October 8, 2020
Quote
If there is anything that 2020 has proven for Tesla, it is that Gigafactory Shanghai is steadily playing a larger role in the electric car maker’s quarterly numbers. And now that reported updates to the facility’s Model 3 production lines are completed and the seven-day National Day celebration is over, it is becoming evident that Tesla China is looking to end the year on a high note, especially when it comes to vehicle deliveries.

Recent drone flyovers of the Gigafactory Shanghai site have revealed that the massive number of vehicles spotted on the site prior to the end of the third quarter have been cleared out, suggesting that the cars have already been sent to delivery centers and customers. As noted by drone operator Wuwa Vision, which has followed Giga Shanghai’s construction for about two years now, local reports now point to the facility producing about 800 vehicles a day

 Watch Wuwa Vision’s recent drone flyover of the Gigafactory Shanghai site in the video below.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-shanghai-pursues-record-q4-deliveries/




—- Giga Berlin
Tobias Lindh (@tobilindh) 10/8/20, 10:37 AM
New time-lapse video from today at #GigaBerlin

https://twitter.com/tobilindh/status/131421344458581197

—-
Tesla Gigafactory Berlin’s reforestation efforts officially begin
October 7, 2020
Overall, the organization is aiming to plant over 200,000 tree saplings and bushes by the end of the year.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-giga-berlin-reforestation-begins/


—- Giga Texas Rumors
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/8/20, 7:54 PM
so apparently Austin will be live BEFORE Berlin
And i’m [hearing] that Tesla’s battery team has been told to prioritize Austin over Berlin for equipment as well
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1314353435790045184


—-  FSD
Quote
< Why is Waymo a specialized solution? The more important thing in FSD is going to be decision making, which only depends on sensor input - which Waymo has. They do use ICE cars but migrating controls to other cars (EV) shouldn't be a show stopper - I could be wrong.
<< It only works where they have high resolution maps and only so long as nothing changes to outdate or disagree with the maps. It’s fragile.
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)10/8/20, 3:18 PM
Exactly. We barked up that tree for way too long (sigh). Gives a false sense of victory being close — a tantalizing local maximum — but reality is just too messy & weird. Our new system is capable of driving in locations we never seen even once.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1314283988400451584
< "Too messy and weird" – 2020 in a nutshell
[Gif:  dumpster fire floats down a massively flooded street]
Elon Musk (@elonmusk)10/8/20, 6:15 PM
Pretty much, but I think it may end on a high note
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1314328552318341120
< Like a 500k+ annual deliveries high note? ;)
<< Shhhh

—- Tesla Insurance
Quote
< Man, what if Tesla bundles FSD subscription with Tesla insurance. It will be a no brainer to get it
Whole Mars Catalog: They’ve already confirmed they will do that
> Once full autonomy is approved by regulators, FSD has to be insured under manufacturer product liability.
They confirmed this at autonomy day during Q&As.
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1314256139618410496


—- Megapacks
Quote
PG&E (@PGE4Me) 10/5/20, 9:02 PM
The first @Tesla Megapacks installed at PG&E’s Moss Landing substation. Once operational (targeting 2Q 2021) this 182.5MW battery #energystorage system will be one of the largest utility-owned, lithium-ion battery energy storage systems in the world.
https://twitter.com/pge4me/status/1313283574611804175
Photo(s) below.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6159 on: October 12, 2020, 01:51:04 AM »
Tesla’s Robot Snake Charger is Not Dead Yet
https://electrek.co/2020/10/09/tesla-robot-snake-charger-not-dead/



The idea behind the concept is that Tesla would need to have a way to autonomously charge vehicles without human intervention once it has a fleet of self-driving electric vehicles.

If vehicles are to be operated without drivers, or even passengers at times, it makes sense for Tesla vehicles to be able to charge without having to have someone manually plug the charger into the electric car.

... Now CEO Elon Musk brought it up for the first time in 5 years when asked about long distance “summoning,” which consists of a Tesla vehicle autonomously driving to its owner:

Pranay Pathole @PPathole Oct 8

*Hypothetically* will this new FSD update be able to drive/summon across states (given it's all connected & not blocked by any borders)?

Elon Musk @elonmusk Oct 8

Yeah, provided we do our metal gear snake autocoupler

https://mobile.twitter.com/PPathole/status/1314275895683633152

In a follow-up tweet, the CEO confirmed that Tesla still has plans for the robot snake charge concept:

Zain @ZainRaz4 Oct 8 Replying to @elonmusk
 
Will we ever see the automatic snake charger?

Elon Musk @elonmusk Oct 8

Yes

https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1314280534604996608

Tesla’s CEO has been claiming that the automaker will have a fleet of “1 million robotaxis” by the end of the year, but that timeline is becoming unlikely, with only a few months left in the year and Tesla’s Autopilot core rewrite being delayed to December.

We know that Tesla has been exploring other solutions besides the snake charger for automated charging.

In 2017, Tesla applied for a patent on a new design for a charger embedded into the ground and requiring a charge connector at the bottom of the vehicle.

As far as we know, they haven’t implemented that solution either, yet.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6160 on: October 12, 2020, 11:40:11 AM »
Wireless charging at 50KW to 75KW is going on trial in Norway for Taxi's.  My suspicion is that, eventually, wireless charging will take over for all but the fastest charging.  But Tesla is unlikely to embrace it until there is enough technology and a clear demand. 

It is more weight for something which is more about convenience.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6161 on: October 12, 2020, 01:30:55 PM »
Wireless charging at 50KW to 75KW is going on trial in Norway for Taxi's.  My suspicion is that, eventually, wireless charging will take over for all but the fastest charging.  But Tesla is unlikely to embrace it until there is enough technology and a clear demand. 

It is more weight for something which is more about convenience.
On top of that wireless charging is not very efficient so I hope not.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6162 on: October 12, 2020, 03:16:42 PM »
If people cared about that, nobody would use a wireless mobile charger....
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6163 on: October 12, 2020, 03:28:12 PM »
Split-Second ‘Phantom’ Images Can Fool Tesla’s Autopilot
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-x-autopilot-phantom-images/amp

Researchers found they could stop a Tesla by flashing a few frames of a stop sign for less than half a second on an internet-connected billboard.

Researchers at Israel's Ben Gurion University of the Negev have spent the last two years experimenting with those "phantom" images to trick semi-autonomous driving systems. They previously revealed that they could use split-second light projections on roads to successfully trick Tesla's driver-assistance systems into automatically stopping without warning when its camera sees spoofed images of road signs or pedestrians. In new research, they've found they can pull off the same trick with just a few frames of a road sign injected on a billboard's video. And they warn that if hackers hijacked an internet-connected billboard to carry out the trick, it could be used to cause traffic jams or even road accidents while leaving little evidence behind.

In their first round of research, published earlier this year, the team projected images of human figures onto a road, as well as road signs onto trees and other surfaces. They found that at night, when the projections were visible, they could fool both a Tesla Model X running the HW2.5 Autopilot driver-assistance system—the most recent version available at the time, now the second-most-recent —and a Mobileye 630 device. They managed to make a Tesla stop for a phantom pedestrian that appeared for a fraction of a second, and tricked the Mobileye device into communicating the incorrect speed limit to the driver with a projected road sign.

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/01/how-a-300-projector-can-fool-teslas-autopilot/?intcid=inline_amp

In this latest set of experiments, the researchers injected frames of a phantom stop sign on digital billboards, simulating what they describe as a scenario in which someone hacked into a roadside billboard to alter its video. They also upgraded to Tesla's most recent version of Autopilot known as HW3. They found that they could again trick a Tesla or cause the same Mobileye device to give the driver mistaken alerts with just a few frames of altered video.

The researchers found that an image that appeared for 0.42 seconds would reliably trick the Tesla, while one that appeared for just an eighth of a second would fool the Mobileye device. They also experimented with finding spots in a video frame that would attract the least notice from a human eye, going so far as to develop their own algorithm for identifying key blocks of pixels in an image so that a half-second phantom road sign could be slipped into the "uninteresting" portions. ... More recently, a Chinese team found they could exploit Tesla's lane-follow technology to trick a Tesla into changing lanes just by planting cheap stickers on a road.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6164 on: October 12, 2020, 10:15:47 PM »
If people cared about that, nobody would use a wireless mobile charger....
Switching car charging to wireless would have a noticeable effect on your electric bill. Some would care some wouldn't.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6165 on: October 13, 2020, 09:34:23 AM »
The changes in UK taxes on the new top line variant of my car moves it from £270 per year to £1,300 per year after the first year.  Again some won't care, I do.

I'd expect wireless charging to be in public places where they would only pay for the power they actually get, not what it cost the infrastructure to deliver it.

I'd expect that, at home, people would always use a cable.  Except for those who can afford to not be bothered.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6166 on: October 13, 2020, 09:41:24 AM »
Split-Second ‘Phantom’ Images Can Fool Tesla’s Autopilot
https://www.wired.com/story/tesla-model-x-autopilot-phantom-images/amp

Today, but it is a simple fix to update the software learning so that a sign must actually be there, right up to when the car stops, for it to be recognised, would solve that.

After all there is no point at which a sign is flashed at you and removed and you stop.  FSD for Tesla is teaching a machine to drive.  Which means creating the edge case conditions on which it acts.  Trying to attack a Tesla into stopping is an edge case, it will be "learned".  Of course they need to be careful about how they "ignore" a sign and new variants will be created.  However as the software "gow's up", it will become more aware and therefore much harder to fool.

Just like the difference between a human child and an adult.

I expect, as this becomes more mature, Tesla will develop an attack team to create attack scenario's and teach the software to recognise them.  Just as you train humans.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6167 on: October 13, 2020, 03:08:58 PM »
Analysts try to talk down Tesla stock.

Quote
"In our experience, we've never seen a stock rise that much that fast with such little regard for past fundamentals,"

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-surge-outpaces-fundamentals-market-rally-valuation-needham-2020-10-1029671062#

So I'm wondering why, with Tesla, you would want to focus so much on past fundamentals.

last year I said that it was likely that 100% or greater growth would become more and more difficult for Tesla.  It appears I'm going to have to eat those words.

Let us think for a second.  Even if Tesla manages to hit 500k vehicles in 2020, what would it take for Tesla to double that in 2021?

An additional 250k from Shanghai Model Y (yes capacity is being specced for 300k initially but let's make it very real).

Then Giga berlin phase 1 is being specced for 500k but will only go into volume production somewhere in Q3, so let's say 150k for the year.  Same again for Texas.

Even with those low goals, Tesla doubles again in 2021.

If Tesla brings Shanghai up to full 1M production, Berlin up to half full production at 1M and texas even to 500k, Tesla will triple in 2022.

Totally ignoring FSD and RoboTaxi, that's enough to keep shares high for the next 2 years.

Then, of course, we will see the full rewrite of FSD and, so I read, samples of HW4 to run it on, this year.  With a potential full volume delivery of HW4 in Q3 2021.  HW4 is supposed to deliver around 432 TOPS compared to HW3 144 and, potentially, for the same power. This is more than Nvidia Drive Orin, at less power draw.

Looking back on Tesla's past fundamentals should only highlight how far they have climbed.

Sometimes I wonder how they make real return on the money they invest.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6168 on: October 13, 2020, 05:18:42 PM »
Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/12/20, 7:31 AM
Limited FSD beta releasing on Tuesday next week, as promised. This will, at first, be limited to a small number of people who are expert & careful drivers.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1315616137464307718
Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/12/20, 11:28 AM
Day 1 of crying publicly on Twitter until @elonmusk sends me the FSD beta  :'(
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1315675681620021250

Elon Musk: Limited Tesla FSD Beta Releasing Next Week
Quote
As promised by Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the company will soon release a fully functional version of its Full Self Driving package, which is the result of a "fundamental rewrite,” but only for private beta testers.

Musk tweeted today that a limited beta will be released on Tuesday next week, in line with his earlier promises. Tesla CEO emphasized that a really small number of people who are experts and careful drivers will have access to it.

Tesla has been working diligently on a transition to a more complex AI framework that would improve the capabilities of Autopilot. During Q2 2020 Earnings Call, Musk explained that what Tesla has done so far is pretty much operating in 2.5D. But 2.5D is not well-correlated in time. "You're thinking about the world in three dimensions and the fourth dimension being time," said Musk. He explained that it is really difficult to convey how much better a 4D system would work.

"It's capable of things that if you just look - looking at things as individual pictures as opposed to video - basically, like you could go from like individual pictures to surround video. So, it's fundamental.

"So, that architectural change, which has been underway for some time but has not really been rolled out to anyone in the production fleet, is what really matters for full self-driving."
 …
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/elon-musk-limited-fsd-beta-releasing-next-week

Tesla Autopilot Updates & Notes from Elon Musk
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/12/tesla-autopilot-updates-notes-from-elon-musk/amp/
Compilation of previous statements.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6169 on: October 14, 2020, 10:31:11 PM »
”His reference to a prophecy was not immediately clear.” ;D

UPDATE 1-Tesla's back-to-back price cuts put sticker on U.S. Model S below $70,000
Quote
Oct 14 (Reuters) - Tesla Inc will further cut the price of its Model S "Long Range" sedan in the United States to $69,420, the electric carmaker's chief executive, Elon Musk, announced in a tweet [ bit.ly/2H0JCP0 ] on Wednesday.

The anticipated drop marks the second time this week Tesla has cut the price for the high-end sedan, following a 4% cut of the Model S’s price in the United States on Tuesday to $71,990.

Tesla shares were up 3.6% at $462.72 late on Wednesday afternoon.

The company also on Tuesday reduced by 3% the price of its Model S in China, where it had previously cut the starting price of its Model 3 sedan.

“The gauntlet has been thrown down! The prophecy will be fulfilled. Model S price changes to $69,420 tonight!” Musk tweeted. His reference to a prophecy was not immediately clear. …
https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-model-s/update-1-teslas-back-to-back-price-cuts-put-sticker-on-u-s-model-s-below-70000-idUSL4N2H53VI

Quote
stevenmarkryan (@stevenmarkryan)10/14/20, 3:40 PM
Imagine trying to compete with Tesla.
#Tesla cuts Model S price by $3k effective immediately (because they can).
So you announce an entry-level "competitor" due in 2022 for $69,990.
Then $TSLA cuts price a further $2,570 (down to $69,420 -- for the lols & because they can).
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1316463987660386304
« Last Edit: October 14, 2020, 10:37:42 PM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6170 on: October 14, 2020, 11:01:15 PM »
I am guessing Musk is referring to the perceived significance of the numbers 69 and 420 .

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6171 on: October 15, 2020, 01:46:51 AM »
< Any idea which gauntlet he is referring to?
Lucid announced a $69,990 version of the Air due in a few years.
https://twitter.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1316518216651464704

Lucid Air packs Tesla Model S-beating 406-mile range and 480 hp for $69,900
Well, it's $69,900 if you qualify for the full $7,500 federal tax credit, that is.
Oct. 14, 2020
https://www.cnet.com/google-amp/news/lucid-air-base-model-406-mile-range-69900-tesla-model-s/

Lucid has also smack-talked Tesla on occasion, noting some Lucid engineers used to work there, while Musk has downplayed their claims that they provided vital design input for the Model S.  So some tit-for-tat, or “two can play that game” going on here, as well. ;)
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6172 on: October 15, 2020, 09:52:16 AM »
I am guessing Musk is referring to the perceived significance of the numbers 69 and 420 .

Musk likes that kind of thing.  What I'm  interested to find out, from the financials next week, is continuing profit margin and cash on hand.

I'm assuming that Tesla made a profit and that profit margin is going into price cuts which help business and drives competition.  This has been a Tesla model all along.

Regardless of the TelsaQ marketing, Tesla doesn't sell at a loss, they just use the money differently.  They have two new factories and one major expansion to bring online in the next 9 months.  That will cost a lot of cash.

Once that is done, I expect prices to keep falling, perhaps even faster.

If Tesla can get the wiring structure changed to a hub system with far less wiring and machine installed, their costs are going to drop again, this will be translated into price drops again.

When Giga Berlin goes live VW is going to find it very hard to get premium price for their ID.3 and with falling 3 and Y prices it is only going to get harder.  When the small vehicle debut's it's going to start impacting the likes of the e206 and the e500 at a price point they will find hard to compete with.

If you watch the Brexit news you will see that the EU has just refused to modify rules of origin for EV's.  This is because the majority of EV components are manufactured in Japan and China.  Especially battery tech for non vertically integrated companies.

This is going to make Tesla, with a battery plant in Berlin, Very, Very, popular in the EU.

You have to wonder how good Musk and the Tesla team are at Chess?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6173 on: October 15, 2020, 10:39:59 PM »
Models S & X are such a small part of Tesla’s business now, price cuts for them are not a big deal.  And such cuts put pressure on other EV makers to make their EVs more affordable:

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/14/20, 3:47 PM
Tesla caught wind of Lucid cutting prices, so they cut the Model S price in advance. They're not going to let Lucid look compelling in any way
So Lucid advertised a price that's lower after tax credit, and now Tesla is undercutting them again. Tesla can afford it, pain for Lucid

Model 3 & Y are the bread and butter now
Model S & X don't really make a difference to their business, so better to compete with Lucid aggressively then try and be greedy milk the S & X for all they're worth
prices coming down is good for the mission. and plaid brings it way up

Gary Black:  In the grand scheme of things, $TSLA cutting price by another $2,500 on Model S LR and Perf won’t matter ($50M hit), and puts more pressure on Audi e-tron and Mercedes EQS. I don’t like legitimizing Lucid, which may not even make it to launch. I trust Elon - he’s been right.

< By reducing the price he is taunting other makers (Lucid in this case) to also reduce prices. Lower prices for even more expensive models will accelerate EV adoption and create chatter amongst everyone. The price chosen is itself a marketing strategy!

<< And by next year if Dems take Senate and White House, TSLA may get back a $7k tax credit. It almost passed in previous budget deal. Stabenow proposed in April granting each automaker a $7,000 tax credit for an additional 400,000 vehicles on top of the existing 200,000 vehicles
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1316465611367567360
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6174 on: October 15, 2020, 10:52:53 PM »
Models S & X are such a small part of Tesla’s business now, price cuts for them are not a big deal.  And such cuts put pressure on other EV makers to make their EVs more affordable:

Quote
Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) 10/14/20, 3:47 PM
Tesla caught wind of Lucid cutting prices, so they cut the Model S price in advance. They're not going to let Lucid look compelling in any way
So Lucid advertised a price that's lower after tax credit, and now Tesla is undercutting them again. Tesla can afford it, pain for Lucid
Is Tesla trying to make "other EV makers make their EVs more affordable" ?

or

is Tesla trying to put a potential competitor out of business (as did Amazon, facebook etc etc )?

If the latter, so much for Musk blah blah about opening up Tesla patents to all to speed up transition to EVs.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6175 on: October 15, 2020, 11:22:27 PM »
My thoughts exactly. Tesla claims to oass on cost savings to buyers and to encourage other EV makers which fits with the "mission".
But when the rubber hits the road, Tesla either cuts ovet-greedy prices to a reasonable level, or cuts them to a loss level to tackle a new entrant to the field, despite Tesla's huge lead and secure market position. Not nice at all.
As a side note, somehow the eternal supporters find this behavior a good thing.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6176 on: October 16, 2020, 11:15:57 AM »
As a side note, somehow the eternal supporters find this behavior a good thing.

You know Oren, I thought to hear that from GSY and not you.

If you compare the approach of Mercedes to the approach of Tesla, you might find some of what you are saying.

Mercedes has decided that they are going to sell horrendously expensive "luxury" cars with a 20% BEV mix, 25% Hybrid mix, up until 2030 and it is going to insulate themselves from Tesla.  At the same time they are going to push out their new BEV platform by cutting Capex and R&D costs.

Tesla, on the other hand, has never sold their vehicles with negative margin from the pure production angle.  Tesla has sold vehicles which pay for themselves and for the huge investment they are putting into bringing a totally new high volume vehicle manufacturer to the market.  Yes Tesla has borrowed huge sums of money, but not anything like the money it would take to produce cars which make no margin and expand the operations of cars that make no margin.  That thinking simply doesn't hold water and I outed GSY on this many times.  If you sell vehicles at a negative margin and you sell more vehicles, you make a bigger loss. This might have looked like that with lower volume and truly massive investment, but once volumes hit a certain level, it was obvious that margin was good and a profit was being made and directed to other things.

Tesla has no need of making an actual profit because it has absolutely no intention of paying a dividend.  Investors don't expect a dividend and why would they make a profit, only to pay the government taxes on it, when they can funnel that profit back into the business and become a world leader in another area (batteries anyone).

Tesla cuts the cost of their moderately expensive Electric vehicles as their production processes improve and vehicle profits increase.

Tesla is running a hugely capital and cashflow expensive business to grow at a rate which is unprecedented, never seen in the automotive world before.

Tesla is not cutting prices of a fixed cost vehicle to try and grab market share from a massive incumbent.  In the EV space Tesla is the incumbent and is running faster than anyone else.  It is cutting costs to increase sales to generate more profit in order to grow the business even faster and head off the obvious competition which is, right now, ramping up.

If Tesla does not keep cutting costs and growing sales, Tesla will be rolled up before it achieves the goals it has set.  If Tesla fails, Automotive transition to electric will take another decade.

The automotive vehicle market is massively oversupplied with manufacturers. Why should Tesla care if a few of them go belly up?  The whole goal of Tesla is to galvanise the market into competing with Tesla and, potentially, overtaking Tesla, which will achieve Tesla's goals faster.

You will note that Musk even stated that they would consider making batteries for the competition.  Does this sound like a company wishing to use it's lead to destroy everyone.

By the time Tesla hits 20m vehicles, it will be like Manhattan island, travelling through the air hypersonic, with a gaggle of auto manufacturers in its slipstream.  The manufacturers will learn to fly or crash and burn when they land.

The critical need, for Tesla, is that they, as a company, do not lose momentum and allow their market to be hoovered up by the competition before critical mass on EV adoption has happened.  As other manufacturers were not competing (Leaf and Bolt were compliance cars and not competition), Tesla had a free hand to push as much of the profit as they could into expansion.  As VW and others ramp up volume, Tesla will need to cut prices and use the size of the operation to continue growth at the same unprecedented pace, whilst competing with the other firms.

To go back to Mercedes, their plan is one to maximise profits for investors and minimise fines.  It is not anything to do with cutting emissions or transitioning to Electric.  If I were to gamble on what Mercedes long term goal is, I would say it is to be acquired by someone who wants their luxury brand name.  Much like Jaguar and Rolls Royce.

This is an entirely different picture than the "Tesla is bad" or "Tesla is a scam" viewpoint.

Like or hate Musk, or even neutral (I'm neutral), the challenges of bringing a totally new vehicle company into being, in an area that was thought to be an edge case (EV) and bring it up to being a strong international force for change, fall into the old saying of "The impossible we do right away; miracles take just slightly longer"!

I was 7 years in the UK Army.  If you want Asshat attitudes, stupid brain dead statements and idiotic mantra, Musk is a toddler.  Musk is a long, long, way from that kind of stupidity.  My most favourite of that was someone screaming in my face that something had not changed over the intervening years, it had "evolved".  How something evolves without change is a mystery that, apparently, only the Army knows.

So if we want to take a step back, devolve Musk and his tweeting from Tesla and think about it.  Just how would you create a brand new vehicle manufacturing company making EV's that, apparently, nobody wants to pay for and turn it into a company that sells 20 million of them a year?
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oren

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6177 on: October 16, 2020, 11:39:11 AM »
Neil you wrote so many words but did not address my (and Gero's) point about Lucid. Did I say Tesla was a scam? Did I say some of the incumbents were not going to go belly up? But I did point out Tesla cut their prices specifically to undercut a potential new entrant competitor, despite all their nice talk talk talk about supporting other EV makers and about cutting prices when their production costs go down. Their actions belie their sweet words.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6178 on: October 16, 2020, 01:15:28 PM »
The latest price cut is a typical Elon style marketing move to create some controversy and generate headlines. That's free advertisement for Tesla. Even Lucid probably benefits from it as they get some free advertisement too.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6179 on: October 16, 2020, 01:42:18 PM »
Oren,

If you wanted to say Tesla was undercutting Lucid, you would need to come up with a little more than a $500 difference in price.

Lucid gets the first 200,000 vehicles with the federal subsidy.  Lowering a vehicle to the same price so the buyer can choose on company, quality and features is not crushing the competition.  It is competing with the market.

Lucid has decided to enter the market where Tesla was in 2012. The main difference is that Tesla had no competition at that time.  If Lucid are not able to compete with the market at their chosen price point, then they are not going to survive.  Forcing Lucid to compete by pricing at the same level is not crushing your competition.

If Tesla wanted to, I'm sure, they could produce a Model S with comparable features, for $60,000 and sell it at a mild loss, supported by the 3/Y sales, to drive Lucid out of business.

Also the 420 in the price is just to thumb his nose at the analysts.

As Yuha says, Lucid will gain marketing from this.  It will also gain the impression that the vehicle is so good that Tesla had to cut prices again to compete.  Hardly a bad position to be seen in.

This extreme negative attitude to Tesla, because of Musk, just doesn't work for me.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6180 on: October 16, 2020, 02:34:26 PM »
Maybe plot Tesla historical price cuts (and their size) vs incoming competition?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6181 on: October 16, 2020, 03:17:11 PM »
Hard to do I guess.  You can't talk about prices of imported vehicles and Tesla only started selling local in China this year.  So not enough data.

In the US the only competition actually emerging is Lucid.  You can't call the Bolt competition or the Leaf.  They are simply not in the same market.

The comparisons can begin in Europe in 2022 when Tesla is on an even footing with locally produced vehicles, with VW.  For China that could begin next year but the Y would need till 2022.

In short, Tesla has only really had like for like competition in China and they only started selling there this year.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6182 on: October 16, 2020, 04:51:00 PM »
The lowest price Lucid won’t be available until (at least) 2022.  Lucid announced a reduced price for a car they hope to produce in the future, but Tesla has reduced the price of a car being sold today.  That’s not bullying.  That’s a clear warning that Lucid needs to adjust its targets and demand greater manufacturing efficiency, if it really wants to compete.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6183 on: October 16, 2020, 05:25:17 PM »
My thoughts exactly. Tesla claims to oass on cost savings to buyers and to encourage other EV makers which fits with the "mission".
But when the rubber hits the road, Tesla either cuts ovet-greedy prices to a reasonable level, or cuts them to a loss level to tackle a new entrant to the field, despite Tesla's huge lead and secure market position. Not nice at all.
As a side note, somehow the eternal supporters find this behavior a good thing.

Seems like Tesla is fighting with with one hand tied by not charging exorbitant amounts for use of their patents and you want to tie up another limb by not allowing them some freedom to set prices as they see fit. If prices that are high are over greedy, while competitive price is just nasty to the competition, then I think it is beginning to sound like there is no price that would satisfy you.

Most companies have freedom to set prices as they see fit, why not Tesla?

Perhaps because they have a dominant market position? If so, what risk(s) do you want to regulate? That they charge too much, stopping the market growing as much as it should, seems the obvious one. In this case you should be pleased to see competitive prices not complain about them.

The alternative risk to regulate against might be that of loss leader prices to establish and maintain a dominant position is a related more profitable business. Tesla seems to be showing they can get to profitability and while a related market like robotaxis may develop, at the moment there is competition to get there first. So I don't see need for regulation, at least not yet anyway.

Trying to regulate in both directions would seem a bit crazy, wouldn't it?

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6184 on: October 16, 2020, 07:23:15 PM »
Steven Mark Ryan:
Quote
In this video I react to, discuss and share my opinions on clips of mainstream finance media (Yahoo Finance, The Street w/Jim Cramer) coverage of Tesla's recent Model S meme price cut to $69,420. Elon Musk is a memelord. But there's more than meets the eye. These price cuts show Tesla's intent to dominate future "competition" on price, performance and value. ...

Tesla Trolls Everyone With Model S Price Cuts ($69,420) - YouTube

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6185 on: October 16, 2020, 07:27:15 PM »
Sorry for stirring the pot. A few final words on a not very important subject.
I am not against Tesla and I don't hate Musk. I actually hope for Tesla to succeed (IMHO it already did) and admire Musk for his approach to innovation. And I am not looking to regulate anything here. However, in this case I find that Tesla's marketing messages ring hollow. They are supposedly above the habit of pricing against the (theoretical) competition, they are supposedly pricing based on their cost and pass on savings when they can, knowing their EVs are way better than anyone else's. Especially as we're talking about the good guys here, new EV makers such as Lucid (and Rivian etc.), rather than the bad guys such as Mercedes and VW. That's all.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6186 on: October 16, 2020, 07:55:27 PM »
Lucid is not here until 2021 at the earliest  and even then they will not start shipping the cheaper base spec model for probably years.
I don't see how you can get upset at a Tesla price cut now when lucid has cut the price on a car not even in production yet .  If you read the lucid site you can clearly see they are  trying to compete with Tesla S .  Lucids announced pricing was a direct challenge to the base model S. Tesla replied with nope you are not going to steal some of our market with a promise so far out in the future .
The price cut to 69420 is pure marketing from Musk .
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6187 on: October 16, 2020, 08:43:09 PM »
Maybe plot Tesla historical price cuts (and their size) vs incoming competition?
Perhaps history won't show light on the issue.

Tesla is now an established company, able to grow at a fast rate and make a profit at the same time, much financed from internal cash flow. Companies often change their nature as they mature, many say they must to survive.

Remember Google at the beginning - "do no evil" ? Now it is a behemoth, ruthless in tax avoidance and in suppressing competition.

Is Tesla going the same way? Musk has many other fish to fry, mavbe the men in suits are already changing Tesla from within -  the ethos subtly changes to mainstream corporate America.
And that includes as regards competition - getting your retaliation in first. Given Tesla is looking at a market they rightfully see as expanding from a million EVs per year to tens of millions of vehicles a year, why else swat an irritating fly?

And Oren - I am always happy to stir the pot. And equating a politely critical comment with GSY's outpourings is beyond balderdash.






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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6188 on: October 16, 2020, 09:28:59 PM »
China has literally hundreds of different companies making EVs, but Tesla leads by focusing on becoming the world’s best in manufacturing.
Quote
Marcel Münch 马赛(@_mm85) 10/6/20, 7:08 AM
(1/6) After recent $TSLA Model 3 price cuts in #China the competitive pricing range landscape including $XPEV, $BYDDY, $NIO looks like this: [⬇️ Graph below]
https://twitter.com/_mm85/status/1313436031308398592

(2/6) Tesla is now directly attacking XPeng $XPEV P7 Sedan - the China copycat of Model 3. The Model 3 SR+ is now also sitting below the Chinese EV subsidy threshold. …


Tesla Model 3 ''Insane'' Price Cuts ''Threaten'' Chinese EV Companies: Chart Shows ''Highly Competitive'' Landscape
Quote
According to the popular Chinese media, a definitely major topic of discussion amongst the whole New Energy Vehicle manufacturers is something that Tesla unexpectedly did. The company reportedly decreased the prices of its Tesla Model 3 making it harder for other EV companies to keep up.

According to Inside EVs It was already shown in certain reports that the huge demand for the known MIC Model 3 is quite blooming and it is definitely great on one hand of the spectrum but as always, if certain competitors are unable to adjust to the brand new situation, the results will most likely be affected. …
https://www.techtimes.com/articles/253134/20201006/tesla-model-3-insane-price-cuts-threaten-chinese-ev-companies.htm
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6189 on: October 16, 2020, 09:52:56 PM »
Quote
Ron Baron says 2 to 3 more doubles in ten years for $tsla
$2 Trillion company 
https://twitter.com/jhall/status/1316343181252980736
2-min CNBC vid excerpt at the link.

Tesla will become a $2 trillion company, says billionaire Tesla shareholder Ron Baron
Quote
Billionaire investor Ron Baron believes Tesla, whose shares have surged more than 400% this year, will be a $2 trillion company.

Baron, a longstanding Tesla shareholder, said Wednesday morning on CNBC's "Squawk Box" that he believes Tesla's vehicle sales will grow 50% annually in the coming years. Tesla's current market cap is $416.2 billion.

"We're very excited about that," he said. …
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/10/14/tesla-will-become-a-2-trillion-company-says-billionaire-ron-baron-.html
[Somewhat longer video excerpt in this article.]


——-
Quote
*Walter Bloomberg:  $Tsla Credit Rating Was Upgraded At S&p To Bb- From B+, Outlook Stable

Gary Black:  $TSLA credit upgrades starting before the 3Q print. That said, BB- is still way too low (3 ratings below investm grade) given that TSLA cash now equal to TSLA debt. TSLA mgmt has done poor job explaining what the proceeds of the $5B ATM equity raise were for. Maybe on 3Q call.

Gary Black (@garyblack00) 10/12/20, 12:47 PM
S&P Ratings:
Investment grade:
AAA
AA+
AA
AA-
A+
A
A-
BBB+
BBB
BBB- <— Where $TSLA should be
——————————————
Speculative:
BB+
BB
BB- <—New $TSLA S&P rating
B+
B
B-
CCC
CC
C
https://twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1315695667130634241


======
Quote
Sounds like your “expert” might be a “moron”
https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1315713914001268736
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6190 on: October 16, 2020, 10:06:30 PM »
—- Solar
Quote
TESLARATI (@Teslarati) 10/14/20, 1:20 AM
Tesla Solar Roof 15kW installation completed in 4 days: Time-lapse video
https://twitter.com/teslarati/status/1316247418942492672
[Notice in the video how the workers are walking all over the installed tiles!]

Elon Musk:  Making progress

Article:
Tesla Solar Roof 15kW installation completed in 4 days: Time-lapse video
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-solar-roof-installation-4-days-video/amp/


———-
Tesla Gigafactory Nevada ramps installation of new rooftop solar panels
October 15, 2020
Quote
Tesla appears to be ramping its efforts to cover Gigafactory Nevada’s roof with solar panels. This was hinted at in a recent flyover of the site, which showed several new rows of solar panels being set up on the roof of the massive facility. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-nevada-solar-panel-ramp-images/
⬇️ Photo below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6191 on: October 17, 2020, 03:50:46 AM »
BREAKING: Tesla unfairly smacks down the competition by increasing Model 3 range and features while not increasing price. ;) ;D

Tesla Model 3 ‘refresh’ goes live with 353-mile range, Uberturbine wheels, powered trunk, and more
October 15, 2020
Quote
The Tesla Model 3 “refresh” has gone live on the electric car maker’s online configurator, and it comes with several compelling updates. As could be seen in the all-electric sedan’s order page, the Model 3 now comes with better range, better performance, new wheels, new features like a powered trunk, and more.

A look at the Model 3’s updated online configurator shows that the Standard Range variant, which used to have 250 miles of range, now has 263 miles of range per charge. The Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor AWD stands at the top range-wise with a whopping EPA rating of 353 miles per charge, far above the 322 miles that it previously offered. Even the Model 3 Performance, which is not optimized for maximum efficiency, now comes with 315 miles per charge, an improvement over its previous 299-mile EPA rating.

Performance-wise, both the Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor AWD received improvements. The Long Range Dual Motor AWD now comes with a 0-60 mph time of 4.2 seconds while the Model 3 Performance is capable of reaching 60 mph in just 3.1 seconds. The two Model 3 variants’ 0-60 mph times were previously listed as 4.4 seconds and 3.2 seconds, respectively.

Despite the updates to the entire Model 3 lineup, the all-electric sedan is still offered at the same price. The Model 3 Standard Range Plus starts at $37,990, the Long Range Dual Motor AWD is listed at $46,990, and the top-of-the-line Performance variant is priced at $54,990 before options. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-refresh-price-wheels-range/

——-

Tesla Model 3 SR+ Has Lowest Energy Consumption of All BEVs, Says Report
Quote
Energy consumption of electric vehicles is a very important characteristic since it directly impacts how many miles an EV can actually drive. Electric vehicles from different manufacturers have different energy consumption, so it is very important to understand which one is the best choice. Tesla Model 3 is the BEV with the lowest power consumption according to the Motor1.com test.

Motor1.com put Tesla Model 3 Standard Plus energy to a consumption test at 64-79 °F. The results were surprising because Model 3 had a consumption of up to 11.90 kWh/60 miles, a record for any BEV tested by Motor1.com.

The Hyundai Kona Electric came in 2nd place with 12.0 kWh/60 miles,
the old Renault Zoe with 12.7 kWh/60 miles was 3rd,
and the Nissan Leaf 40 kWh had 13.1 kWh/60 miles, coming in 4th.

Tesla Model 3 has become a leader in all driving conditions.
   •   City traffic (Rome): 15.0 kWh/60 miles, range 205 miles
   •   Mixed urban/suburban: 14.0 kWh/60 miles, range 221 miles
   •   Motorway: 19.2 kWh/60 miles, range 162 miles
   •   Energy-saving test: 9.2 kWh/60, power reserve 336 miles

The test cars were always driven by the same Motor1.com Italy journalist. The route was always the same, Rome-Forlì, and is about 224 miles long. The route  includes 65% Superstrada (expressway, speed limit 56 to 68 mph), 25% Autostrada (motorway, speed limit 81 mph), 5% Strada Statale (federal road, speed limit 56 mph), and 5% of city traffic. 
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-model-3-sr-is-the-lowest-energy-consumption-of-all-bevs-says-report

Quote
Elon Musk (@elonmusk) 10/16/20, 3:45 AM
@Tesmanian_com Current production is slightly better
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1317008759286243329
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6192 on: October 17, 2020, 08:24:47 AM »
I think Tesla prices are mostly algorithmic. They have an algorithm that takes into account things like projected demand and production capacity and adjusts the price accordingly.

Surely humans have some input over their prices, but I don't think one should read too much into it except as an efficiency improvement.

If Tesla slows down to let others catch up, then the mission slows down.

If the competition want to keep up they better roll up theirs sleeves. This advantage is something that $$ can't fix, only hard work, determination and time.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6193 on: October 17, 2020, 12:36:52 PM »
Agree totally.  Hence my analogy of Tesla rocketing ahead with a gaggle of car manufacturers in their slipstream.

I was not kidding when I said root hog or die.

Ask yourselves this.  If Tesla reduces competition with the market to give Lucid a leg up, what will the rest of the compliance car manufacturing companies do?

My take is they will kill them both and put a brake on EV adoption until they are ready.

If Lucid cannot compete with Tesla and keep up, the lions chasing Tesla will have them as a tasty appetiser.

This specific situation is about business and economics, not the environment and is right on target for the Tesla mission.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6194 on: October 18, 2020, 12:58:40 PM »
Giga texas, apart from the huge founds going in for the presses, at the other end rebar is stacking up, holes for posts are in progress and the first steel framework (albeit tiny), has gone up.

There should be a burst of speed for a while now as forests of posts start to appear.


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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6195 on: October 18, 2020, 11:52:09 PM »
So, will it be a "giga" factory or a "tera" factory? 

I recall seeing a list of largest buildings in the world, and the biggest Tesla factory was #2 or 3 (if not soon to be #1 when fully built).  So I think "giga" and "tera" is just (mostly effective, I think) PR.

The good thing about my yoctofactory is that camera-wielding drones won't notice it.  (Don't ask what my factory makes; it's secret even to me.)
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6196 on: October 19, 2020, 03:54:00 PM »
Time will tell.  The footprint may be 3* Berlin, but the plans so far are not that much larger.  Terra or Giga?  Who knows.  Or are they going to wait for the next factory and its size?

They are grading a larger area than Berlin, so I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Fair amount of rumbles coming out of Shanghai that the Model Y may already have a few samples being constructed.  Certainly the site is moving towards vehicular access for the loading bays and completion of roads.

All go right now.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #6197 on: October 19, 2020, 08:55:58 PM »
Tesla Q3 results this Wednesday!

Why the S&P 500 Can’t Afford to Keep Tesla Out
Oct. 18, 2020
Quote
Tesla is expected to produce another quarterly profit when it reports third quarter numbers after the market closes on Wednesday.
When numbers come out, Tesla (ticker TSLA) bulls and bears will pore over margins, regulatory credits, and statements from Elon Musk about production capacity and future demand.

A quarterly profit will restart another debate as well: S&P 500 inclusion. Will Tesla finally go into the S&P 500?

One strategist on Wall Street believes it is imperative—for the index, not the company—to include the electric vehicle pioneer.
Tesla (ticker: TSLA) qualified for inclusion in the S&P 500 when it reported a GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) profit for the second quarter of 2020. That gave the company positive profits over the past 12 months and in its most recently reported quarter.

But the S&P 500 has passed over Tesla stock a couple of times since then, adding Pool (POOL) and Etsy (ETSY) instead of Tesla. Wall Street analysts and pundits have speculated that S&P Global (SPGI) might be scared off by excessive stock volatility or the fact that regulatory credits helped boost second-quarter profits. The S&P has consistently told Barron’s the index committee considers many factors, but never tips their hand regarding how they reach their decisions.

Not having Tesla is in the S&P is, frankly, a little odd. It’s the world’s most valuable auto maker and would be the ninth largest component, trailing, for now, behind Walmart (WMT) and ahead of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). …
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/why-the-s-p-500-cant-afford-to-keep-tesla-out-51603024238

—-

Oct 15, 2020
Alex Potter of @Piper_Sandler joins Tesla Daily Rob Maurer live to discuss Tesla autonomy, energy, Battery Day, and more. They also take questions from institutional investors and on YouTube.  Discussion timestamps are in the YouTube description below the video.
➡️https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzPcCpJvj5I
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.