Batteries: Today's Energy Solution

[etienne]

An article on batteries and storage from the "Climate denial crock of the week" blog.
https://climatecrocks.com/2018/09/20/the-rush-for-better-batteries/

Interesting because it provides a general view, but nothing special.

In energy should be stored as heat, and if it would work that well, maybe a first step could be for District heating network, and once that works, why not trying to make electricity out of it.

[jacksmith4tx]

Refrigerators are kind of a inverse battery 

What would be really cool (pun intended) is solid state (magnetic?) refrigeration. In Texas it's the #1 user of electricity. Solid state refrigeration could cut emissions of refrigerants gases, reduce electrical demand, potentially last longer and provide affordable A/C and refrigeration to developing nations.

https://newatlas.com/magnetic-cooling-shape-shifting-alloy/56379/

Magnetic cooling systems work by exploiting the magnetocaloric effect – which basically means that certain materials will change temperature when exposed to a magnetic field. The technology has been around almost as long as conventional fridges, but has never really taken off because device complexity can ruin energy efficiency. The problem is often the superconducting magnets used, which require their own cooling system.

To get around that problem, researchers from Technical University Darmstadt and the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) in Germany used a unique combination of magnets and special alloys. The magnets contain the rare-Earth metal neodymium, as well as iron and boron. The alloy is a mixture of nickel, manganese and indium.

That combination is key to making the system practical. Those magnets are the strongest permanent magnets currently known, capable of generating magnetic fields 40,000 times stronger than that of the Earth. That particular alloy, meanwhile, will cool down when exposed to a magnetic field and, in addition, it can return to its original shape after being deformed.

While this is overkill for commercial use it does show the potential.

All-solid-state cryocooler becomes a reality
https://www.lanl.gov/discover/news-stories-archive/2018/August/0821-cryocooler.php

Markus Hehlen and collaborators have — for the first time — demonstrated an all-solid-state optical refrigerator that operates at cryogenic temperatures and has no moving parts.

This might go in the category of things like affordable fusion power and flying cars but technology marches on.

[Sigmetnow]

Huge Lithium ion batteries weighing 1.9 metric tons total are on their way to the International Space Station to replace old Nickel-Hydrogen batteries.  They are installed on the exterior of the station, exposed to the vacuum of space.  Others were swapped out about two years ago. 

Sept 22, 2018:  Kounotori 7 cargo resupply mission on its way to ISS

...six new battery Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) consisting of new lithium-ion battery cells weighing some 1.9 metric tons. The ORUs are slated to replace the station’s current nickel-hydrogen batteries.

http://www.spaceflightinsider.com/organizations/jaxa/kounotori-7-cargo-resupply-mission-on-its-way-to-iss/

Dec 2016:  Sometimes Even the International Space Station Needs New Batteries
https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/a24563/upgrade-international-space-station/

[Archimid]

Tesla’s massive Powerpack battery in Australia cost $66 million and already made up to ~$17 million

https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-powerpack-battery-australia-cost-revenue/

We have already seen several pieces of evidence that Tesla’s massive Powerpack battery project in Australia is quite financially successful, but now we get all the numbers as Neoen, Tesla’s partner in the project, files for IPO.

The giant battery cost ~$66 million and it reportedly already made up to $17 million during the first ~6 months of operation.

They are talking revenue not profits, but it is impressive.

[gerontocrat]

Tesla’s massive Powerpack battery in Australia cost $66 million and already made up to ~$17 million

https://electrek.co/2018/09/24/tesla-powerpack-battery-australia-cost-revenue/

We have already seen several pieces of evidence that Tesla’s massive Powerpack battery project in Australia is quite financially successful, but now we get all the numbers as Neoen, Tesla’s partner in the project, files for IPO.

The giant battery cost ~$66 million and it reportedly already made up to $17 million during the first ~6 months of operation.

They are talking revenue not profits, but it is impressive.

Also excludes cost saving from slaughtering the price of electricity for brief periods of supply shortfall and cost savings of reduced damage to electrical gear due to  near instantaneous response to frquency / voltage drops

[Sigmetnow]

The article has links to other examples of recycling used vehicle batteries to stationary storage.

Renault wants to build a 60 MWh energy storage system with used electric car battery packs

Renault is launching today a new  “Advanced Battery Storage” program today. With the program, the French automaker is aiming to build “the biggest energy stationary storage system using EV batteries ever designed in Europe by 2020.”

While several automakers have now launched “second-life” programs for used electric vehicle battery packs, Renault is in a particularly good position to run those programs because of how it sells many of its electric vehicles.

In some markets, Renault sold most of its Zoe electric vehicles while retaining ownership of the battery packs. They have also offered battery upgrades – resulting in them having significantly more used battery packs than the average automaker.

Now Renault wants to take advantage of that model with this new energy storage program. They plan to deploy “at least 60 MWh” of energy storage capacity at several different sites accross Europe. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/09/25/renault-energy-storage-system-used-electric-car-battery-packs/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla's big battery in Australia [officially known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve] is starting an energy storage movement

...The timeline was ambitious, and unsurprisingly, it attracted a slew of critics, some of whom claimed that batteries could not be built that big or that quick. In the same month as Elon Musk and Michael Cannon-Brookes’ conversation on Twitter, for example, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) issued a report suggesting that the maximum size of a utility-scale lithium-ion battery would be 1MW. The report was published not long after then-AEMO chairman Tony Marxsen stated that utility-scale batteries were about 10 to 20 years away from providing meaningful contributions to the grid. The Minerals Council of Australia, the country’s primary coal lobby, also suggested that a large-scale battery installation would take at least one year to design and two years to build.
...
It won’t be an overstatement to say that the Tesla big battery has become a project, possibly even the project, which ultimately proved that battery storage is an ideal alternative for fossil fuel-powered backup plants. This was emphasized earlier this month by Tesla CTO JB Straubel, who noted that the improvements in battery storage are starting to affect the market for traditional fossil fuel-powered peaker plants. In an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle, Straubel stated that even at this point, large battery installations are “already outcompeting natural gas peaker plants.” ...

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerpack-farm-australia-energy-storage-movement/

[Rob Dekker]

Tesla Is 2 Years Ahead Of Schedule On Gigafactory 1

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/10/01/tesla-is-2-years-ahead-of-schedule-on-gigafactory-1/

It’s worth pausing to celebrate this rare but strong example of Tesla being two full years ahead of schedule on the timeline it originally set out for the Gigafactory back in 2014. From an initial 2020 target, we now find the 35 GWh annualized production volume goal looks set to be achieved by the end of 2018. That’s 4 years to reach a goal that was initially planned to require 6 years.

Tesla and Elon Musk have come in for a lot of flack recently, but the progress on the ground at the Gigafactory should serve to remind us that — away from the negative press and frequent skepticism about the revolutionary company’s broader mission — Tesla is achieving remarkable goals to accelerate the move towards sustainable transportation and energy.

[Archimid]

For Now, at Least, the World Isn’t Making Enough Batteries

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/for-now-at-least-the-world-isn-t-making-enough-batteries

Evidence of the battery-powered era is all around us. Electric vehicles are cruising down our freeways. Household appliances thrum with stored solar energy that was until recently a daytime-only power source. Governments from California to China and South Korea—even Donald Trump’s Washington—have taken steps that will make battery power more ubiquitous.

There’s just one hitch to this battery boom: The world isn’t making nearly enough. All of the new demand from North America, Europe and Asia is constrained at the moment by a market that remains heavily dependent on a few producers.

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla big battery claims its first major fossil fuel victim
October 5

Elon Musk’s crusade to rid the world of fossil fuels and lead the transition to clean energy took a small but significant step forward this week, when the Australian Energy Market Operator decided to put an end to a market that has been rorted outrageously by fossil fuel generators in recent years.

It’s a highly technical change in the complex world of managing Australia’s largest machine – the electricity grid. But it is significant, because it highlights just how quickly new technologies such as batteries are changing the way grids are being managed, and making them smarter, faster, cleaner, and cheaper.

Decades-old assumptions about how the grid should be managed, using old technologies, are now being challenged. And some of the market rorts built up over time by the energy incumbents are slowly being swept away (hopefully not to be replaced by new ruses invented by new players).

AEMO advised energy market players this week that it was bringing to an end the three-year-old requirement for 35MW of local regulation frequency and ancillary services to be provided in South Australia when there was risk of the state’s grid separating from the rest of the national grid.

This contingency was introduced in late 2015, and was designed to ensure, says Christian Schaefer, AEMO’s head of system capability, that the state’s grid – with a high percentage of renewables – could operate safely and securely by itself. Such isolation events were expected to be frequent given the planned upgrades and maintenance of the main link to Victoria.

Until the Tesla big battery was put into service last December, that market had been rorted outrageously by the previous sole providers of FCAS – several major gas generators – who ensured the price of FCAS in that state rose nearly 100-fold to the market cap of $14,000/MWh when AEMO made the precautionary call for local back up.

That would send the cost of FCAS for such events up to $6 million a day. It happened almost every time the constraint was imposed and total costs from several dozen such events totalled $109 million in 2016 and 2017, with the costs passed on to wind farms and other big energy consumers.

That was until the Tesla big battery arrived and smashed the gas cartel, because it meant that the gas generators could no longer control the price of that service.

The total cost in 2018 is projected by AEMO to be just $3.6 million. That also reflects a big decline in the number of occasions that the constraint was imposed, but also because the presence of the battery means prices can’t be gamed when it is imposed.

Now it seems that AEMO is satisfied that the presence of the Tesla big battery, along with its new system strength rules to ensure a minimum amount of gas generation at any one time, means that it no longer needs to impose the market constraint. In effect, the Tesla big battery spoiled the party, and now the party is over. ...

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-claims-its-first-major-fossil-fuel-victim-30614/

Cross-post in Oil & Gas thread.

[TerryM]

rort - noun Australian, informal


1- a fraudulent act or practice


Any idea what cells were used in the Tesla Big Battery?
I'd read that they were supplied by Samsung, but there is so much disinformation around Tesla that it's hard to keep up.


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

...
Any idea what cells were used in the Tesla Big Battery?
I'd read that they were supplied by Samsung, but there is so much disinformation around Tesla that it's hard to keep up.

Terry

Yes; looks like due to time constraints and Panasonic’s limitations, Samsung cells were used.

Despite its close relationship with Panasonic, Tesla will actually be utilizing Samsung SDI lithium-ion battery cells at the facility in South Australia that’s now under construction, the company has revealed.

The reason for the choice of supplier is a fairly pragmatic one, though — Panasonic reportedly wouldn’t be able to meet demand for the project. It’s noteworthy here that we just reported on the fact that Panasonic is expanding its automotive lithium-ion production capacity in Japan, not that those are the same cells.

Also noteworthy is that Tesla CEO Elon Musk promised the massive new facility in South Australia would be online within 100 daysof a grid connection agreement being signed or that it would be “free” — presumably, that promise has led to a need to be pragmatic about rapid sourcing of battery cells.

“Tesla is importing the cells to the US for final assembly before sending them to Australia — apparently taking the promotional benefits over profit,” Asia Times notes. ...

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/09/30/tesla-using-samsung-sdi-battery-cells-129-mwh-south-australia-facility/

[TerryM]

Thanks Sig


That's about what I'd heard. Emotions are sometimes so high when it comes to Tesla or Musk that it's difficult at times to separate the wheat from the chaff.


You're posts are pro Musk, pro Tesla, but I've never known you to play with the facts.
Terry

[NeilT]

I don't think it was only about manufacturing ability.  Panasonic is Japanese and China has been doing its best to lock Japan out of heavy metallic resources like cobalt.  Japan and China are actively researching undersea mining of both inactive seamounts and polymetallic (but usually called manganese), nodules from the sea floor.  As the ocean floor is extremely rich in these heavy metals.

It could simply have been that Panasonic was unable to source sufficient Cobalt at such short notice to produce such a large increase in cells.

It is this scarcity which is driving the move away from Cobalt in Li batteries as much as possible.

Of course you have to know about the problem and dig a bit to see what is going on.  I knew about the ocean mining Japan was doing about 8 years ago, as a friend has contacts with an experimental company designing products for that express purpose.

[magnamentis]

I don't think it was only about manufacturing ability.  Panasonic is Japanese and China has been doing its best to lock Japan out of heavy metallic resources like cobalt.  Japan and China are actively researching undersea mining of both inactive seamounts and polymetallic (but usually called manganese), nodules from the sea floor.  As the ocean floor is extremely rich in these heavy metals.

It could simply have been that Panasonic was unable to source sufficient Cobalt at such short notice to produce such a large increase in cells.

It is this scarcity which is driving the move away from Cobalt in Li batteries as much as possible.

Of course you have to know about the problem and dig a bit to see what is going on.  I knew ut the ocean mining Japan was doing about 8 years ago, as a friend has contacts with an experimental company designing products for that express purpose.

this is most probably as you suggest. in this context i posted elsewhere that for this and similar reasons batteries the way they're built nowaday are not a future-proof solution but would cause more trouble than fossil fuels ever have if the entire world would be/become dependent on them.

anyways i believe that the future will bring a mix of energy sources and that the main coverage will be covered by H2, made from sea-water, powered by renewables like PV , wind and geothermie.

excuse my bad english when it comes to term on this level but i hope i was able to convey the point.

[NeilT]

excuse my bad english when it comes to term on this level but i hope i was able to convey the point.

You should see my written French  (or perhaps not as you probably would not understand it...).  I fully understand trying to communicate in a language which is not your native.  You got the situation over very well.

[gerontocrat]

Another small but perhaps significant step in reducing the problems associated with intermittent renewale energy.

https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/mandurah-suburb-to-get-communal-tesla-battery-in-australia-first-trial-20181017-p50a8g.html

Residents in the Mandurah suburb of Meadow Springs have been selected to take part in an Australian-first communal battery trial.

The 105kW (420kWh) Tesla powerbank battery installed in a neighbourhood park will allow 52 surrounding houses with solar panels to store the excess power generated during the day and draw on it in the peak evening period.

[Sigmetnow]

Scotland

Tesla delivers first Powerpack project at tidal power station

Tesla delivered a new Powerpack system to Nova Innovation’s tidal power station in Scotland – creating “the world’s first grid-connected ‘baseload’ tidal power station.”

Nova Innovation is deploying underwater turbines to produce electricity from the energy of the tides on the shores.

Tidal energy is extremely reliable since tides are easily predictable, but tides don’t consistently create energy throughout the day. That’s where Tesla’s Powerpack comes in. The battery packs can store excess energy from the tides to be delivered when the turbines can not produce electricity.
...
Tesla’s Powerpacks have already been deployed at many renewable projects, like solar and wind farms, but it’s the first time that it has been installed at a tidal power station. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/11/01/tesla-powerpack-tidal-power-station/
Short video at the link.

[Sigmetnow]

Australia

A new Tesla 'shared Powerbank' launches as a community alternative to individual Powerwalls

In a press release, the government explained the program:

“At a cost of $1 per day, each customer participating in the 24-month trial will be able to virtually store up to eight kWh of excess power generated during the day from their solar PV systems in the battery. They will then be able to draw electricity back from the PowerBank during peak time without having to outlay upfront costs for a behind the meter battery storage system.”

It adds up to $0.125 per kWh stored, with the state average cost of electricity per kWh being $0.283.

Energy Minister Ben Wyatt commented on the launch of the project:

“For customers with solar panels, this is a simple opportunity that uses the existing network connection to their home, requires zero augmentation to their connection, and delivers savings and flexibility to suit their needs.”

https://electrek.co/2018/11/05/tesla-shared-powerbank/

[Sigmetnow]

California

Tesla and others to deliver over 2 GWh of energy storage in California project to replace 3 gas plants

The California Public Utilities Commission approved this week a very important proposal from PG&E to deploy over 2 GWh of energy storage capacity from battery systems by Tesla and other companies that will replace three gas plants.

We first learned of the project at PG&E’s Moss Landing substation when they submitted it to CPUC and the company was in talks with Tesla earlier this year.

It involves four separate energy storage projects and two of them should become the world’s largest battery systems.

Dynegy is going to deploy a 300 MW / 1,200 MWh project on PG&E’s grid while the Tesla project will be a 182.5 MW / 730 MWh, which could eventually go up to 1.1 GWh.

When Tesla completed its giant Powerpack project in Australia, it became the largest battery in the world, but these new ones are several times larger. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/11/09/tesla-pge-giant-energy-storage-replace-gas-plants/

[sidd]

CA battery coverage at utilitydive, looks like the batteries are replacing Calpine gas plants which need RMR (reliable must run) certification to be economically viable. And CAISO dont wanna pay for RMR power forever.

Another thing is all projects have  max duration at peak power on battery packs of 4 hour. Wonder if that's in the regulations ...

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/storage-will-replace-3-california-gas-plants-as-pge-nabs-approval-for-worl/541870/

sidd

[Sigmetnow]

Australia

A new Tesla 'shared Powerbank' launches as a community alternative to individual Powerwalls
...

Now online, three months early!

Tesla battery will power unusual community storage project in Western Australia

A community storage pilot project using Tesla batteries went live this week in Western Australia, three months ahead of schedule. The 105KW/420KWh pooled storage will act as a sort of locker for excess power produced by homes with solar panels.

The project is an unusual one because it pools battery capacity for homes with solar panels. It was funded by energy company Synergy and government-owned Western Power, which sought 52 customers with solar panels on their homes as participants. The 52 shares of the project were snapped up in two weeks, far more quickly than expected, which accelerated the project's timeline.

Participants will each be allotted 8kWh of storage, which they will "fill" with excess power created by their rooftop solar panels during the day. (This is in theory, of course. Solar-generated electricity can flow back onto the grid, but there's no guarantee that the battery will be charged with solar-generated electrons.) In the evening, customers will "be able to draw electricity back from the PowerBank during peak time without having to outlay upfront costs for a behind-the-meter battery storage system," says a press release from the government of Western Australia.

https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2018/11/tesla-battery-will-power-unusual-community-storage-project-in-western-australia/

[Sciguy]

Battery costs are continuing to drop, leading to huge investments in utility scale storage projects:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2018/11/09/battery-energy-storage-is-a-1-trillion-opportunity-as-costs-continue-to-crash/#6871f1c74684

Large-scale energy storage used to be part of the future of energy. But it’s here now, and it’s going to become increasingly important in the years to come.

Clean energy researchers at Bloomberg NEF (BNEF) find that more than $600 billion will be invested in the sector between now and 2040. The group’s latest Long-Term Energy Storage Outlook says that the “tumbling costs of utility-scale lithium-ion battery storage systems will transform the economic case for batteries in both the vehicle and the electricity sector”, predicting that prices will fall by 52% between 2018 and 2030, adding to the steep declines already experienced this decade.

This will lead to $620 billion of investment* flowing to the sector in the next 22 years, creating a cumulative capacity of 942GW, BNEF said. In the near term, the market will be dominated by South Korea and the US, but China will be the driving force from the 2020s onward.

[Tor Bejnar]

I wonder what affect resource depletion (of 'easy to get to' resources) will have on these predicted price reductions as consumption skyrockets.  I understand there are efforts (like what Tesla is doing) to reduce requirements for the more expensive ingredients, but still ... 

And I wonder what percentage of the world's battery gigafactories will be Tesla-related these coming years (in China or elsewhere) -  or will only Tesla use the term?

[And when will the first terafactory be declared     - the term is searchable, but not yet relevant:  "안녕하세요 테라팩토리입니다. 간만에 찾아뵙는데요. 금일은 1학년 신입생들을 선발하고 난 후 첫 실습을 했습니다."].

[Archimid]

I wonder what affect resource depletion (of 'easy to get to' resources) will have on these predicted price reductions as consumption skyrockets.

Tor, maybe this helps.

Ten years left to redesign lithium-ion batteries

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05752-3

If nothing changes, demand will outstrip production within 20 years. We expect this to occur for cobalt by 2030 and for nickel by 2037 or sooner.

Car manufacturers and governments project that 10 million to 20 million electric cars will be produced each year by 2025. If each car battery requires 10 kg of cobalt, by 2025, electric vehicles would need 100,000–200,000 tonnes of cobalt per year — most of the world’s current production. Similarly, 400,000–800,000 tonnes of nickel would be required annually, or 20–40% of all the metal used today. More would be needed when trucks, buses, aeroplanes and ships become battery-powered.

My bet is that asteroid mining will supply the nickel past 2030. Cobalt may not be a problem according to Panasonic. There is plenty of lithium.

[Sciguy]

I'm guessing that recycling the materials from old batteries will be less expensive than mining asteroids.  In fact, some companies have already started on it.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-Trends/Rare-metal-miners-dig-into-used-batteries-for-lithium-and-cobalt

As the era of the electric vehicle dawns, global resource players are working to establish networks and technologies for collecting and recycling valuable materials used in rechargeable batteries.

Demand is expected to skyrocket for these materials, and enhancing recycling capacity is one way to ease a possible shortage of electric vehicle batteries -- as well as profit from surging prices.

Rare materials such as cobalt, nickel, manganese and lithium are used in battery cathodes to increase capacity.


For example, Japan's JX Nippon Mining & Metals has invented a technology to eliminate impurities and separate individual metals from used batteries for recycling. These includes lithium, which is particularly difficult to extract.

The Japanese company plans to start by recycling batteries from electronic devices such as personal computers, then expand to automotive batteries sometime in 2019.

[crandles]

My bet is that asteroid mining will supply the nickel past 2030.

Wow that seems ambitious. Musk is aiming for manned free return trajectory around moon by 2024 and SLS about the same at best. That is half of 12 year time frame gone just to be able to take such a baby step toward asteroid mining. ET Landings, taking off again, autonomous mining equipment and spacecraft loading, journeys to and back from asteroid .... there seems an awful lot to develop in a very short period. Even if possible in that timeframe, there is the issue of whether value of goods returned have any hope of being worth the cost and risk involved?

[NeilT]

My bet is that asteroid mining will supply the nickel past 2030. Cobalt may not be a problem according to Panasonic. There is plenty of lithium.

Much closer source, although the recovery may be as difficult.  Or maybe not, we know much more about undersea recovery of minerals and our technology in the area has improved drastically in the last 4 decades.

The sample collection from prospective area of sea bottom is discussed at Chapter 7 and Fig. 7.31. The worldwide resource has been estimated at 5,00,000 million tonnes. The nodules are of greatest economic interest metal contents varying between nickel (1.25 and 1.50%), copper (1.00 and 1.40%), cobalt (0.20 and 0.25%), manganese (~30%), iron (~6%), silicon (~5%), aluminum (~3%) and with lesser amounts of Ca, Na, Mg, K, Ti and Ba.

In the end it depends on the cost of recovery.  But I'd guess that space operations are going to be more expensive than sea bed recovery.  Especially given that the space based technology doesn't even exist yet.

[Archimid]

Crandles, it does seems ambitious, it has to be that way. There are people already working on it, and so far they have been successful.

https://www.planetaryresources.com/company/timeline/

With Space X lowering launch costs and spacecraft technology improving steadily I think 2030 is not at all out of the question.

[crandles]

I was aware there are people working on it. 'Working on it' so far seems to be 'just looking for potential resources' (and link provided is just testing a cubesat that has been looking for resources on Earth to test its systems so not even started looking yet). Well not going to put a plan together without knowing where you are going to go, so fair enough as a starting point. However IMHO, it just underlines how much development is needed. Add another 5 or 10 years to your timescale and I might accept that it could happen by 2035 or 2040.

[gerontocrat]

My bet is that asteroid mining will supply the nickel past 2030. Cobalt may not be a problem according to Panasonic. There is plenty of lithium.

Much closer source, although the recovery may be as difficult.  Or maybe not, we know much more about undersea recovery of minerals and our technology in the area has improved drastically in the last 4 decades.

The sample collection from prospective area of sea bottom is discussed at Chapter 7 and Fig. 7.31. The worldwide resource has been estimated at 5,00,000 million tonnes. The nodules are of greatest economic interest metal contents varying between nickel (1.25 and 1.50%), copper (1.00 and 1.40%), cobalt (0.20 and 0.25%), manganese (~30%), iron (~6%), silicon (~5%), aluminum (~3%) and with lesser amounts of Ca, Na, Mg, K, Ti and Ba.

In the end it depends on the cost of recovery.  But I'd guess that space operations are going to be more expensive than sea bed recovery.  Especially given that the space based technology doesn't even exist yet.

Seabed mining
The sea bed is not a desert. Much of it will become a desert as mining increases in scale and pollutants are strewn around. Later on some scientist will discover it's importance to planetary ecosystems, but by then - too late.

Asteroid mining
I can just about see a possibility of mining an asteroid with a very high scarce mineral content, and sending a lump back into orbit around earth (say alongside the international space station at 400 kms up there).

But  how do you get a lot, an awful lot, of tons of nickel orbiting earth at (say) 5 miles (8 kms) a second from there to gigafactory 1 at zero velocity?

[Sciguy]

Conventional mining projects and changes to the composition of battery anodes will make asteroid and/or sea-bed mining unprofitable for the foreseeable future:

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-truth-about-the-cobalt-crisis#gs.Lm7oYDs

The current supply of cobalt is restricted not so much by the availability of the mineral, but by the cost of extracting and processing it, he said. Already, two major mining projects could help increase supply if the business case were strengthened by an uptick in demand.

The article (from 2017) explains that the two mining projects would add 29,000 tons per year to the current supply of 93,000 tons.  It goes on to discuss how the resources in the Congo differ from other colbalt deposits:

Cobalt mining has taken off in the DRC because it's associated with copper, which can be extracted at a profit. Cobalt mining hasn't been mined extensively elsewhere because it's associated with nickel, which is harder to mine profitably.




The value of nickel is expected to rise, though, thanks to its use in nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cathodes for electric-vehicle batteries.

And battery manufacturers are starting to play with the relative proportions of nickel, cobalt and manganese in a way that could help the supply chain. Initially, NMC cathodes were designed with a 1-1-1 ratio of each material.

“We’ve moved from that to 5-2-3, so more nickel, less cobalt,” Rawles said. “8-1-1 is where the industry is looking at the moment.”

If you remember the "rare earths" shortages from 2010 to 2011 that were going to cripple the wind industry, those were solved by using materials that were more economical.  Material substitutions even made the price of wind turbines lower.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/535381/what-happened-to-the-rare-earths-crisis/

Although the properties of rare earths are hard to mimic, the prospect of shortages led several companies and researchers to find ways to reduce their need for the materials. The U.S. Geological Survey points out that the lighting industry decreased its use of rare earths last year because new light emitting diode (LED) bulbs contain less rare earth material than compact fluorescent bulbs. General Electric tells MIT Technology Review that it expects to significantly cut down on the rare earths it uses in its lighting products, thanks to new materials it has developed to replace them. Siemens appears to be considering technology that eliminates dysprosium in its wind turbines, and Nissan announced in 2012 that it cut the dysprosium in the Leaf electric car’s motor by 40 percent by using a new manufacturing process.

[Sciguy]

And researchers have found a way to redesign anodes completely, changing from layering concept to a technology using disordered rock salts.  It not only eliminates the need for cobalt, but increases the capacity of the battery:

https://www.power-technology.com/news/study-increases-capacity-cobalt-free-battery/

Building on their 2014 discovery, which found cathodes can maintain a high energy density without the layering structure of cobalt, the team members have now shown that they can also increase battery storage capacity without cobalt. They believe that this could open up new possibilities for the design of cathodes.

“We’ve opened up a new chemical space for battery technology,” said senior author and professor in the Department of Materials Science and Engineering at Berkeley Gerbrand Ceder.

“For the first time we have a really cheap element that can do a lot of electron exchange in batteries.”

Using a process called fluorine doping, the scientists were able to incorporate a large amount of manganese in the cathode. Having more manganese ions with the proper charge allows the cathodes to hold more lithium ions and increase the battery’s capacity.

The disordered manganese cathodes approached 1,000 watt-hours per kilogram, with typical lithium-ion cathodes in the range of 500-700 watt-hours per kilogram.

“In the world of batteries, this is a huge improvement over conventional cathodes,” said lead author Jinhyuk Lee, who was a postdoctoral fellow at Ceder’s lab during the study.

The team plans on scaling the technology up to test it in applications such as laptops or electric vehicles, but Ceder is confident that the discovery will provide freedom for further developments.

“You can pretty much use any element in the periodic table now because we’ve shown that cathodes don’t have to be layered,” said Ceder.

[Archimid]

But  how do you get a lot, an awful lot, of tons of nickel orbiting earth at (say) 5 miles (8 kms) a second from there to gigafactory 1 at zero velocity?

A few years ago when Planetary Resources started, I asked a similar question. Someone answered "That's easy, gravity". I just shut up and took it as the correct answer. I assume that they will just crash it somewhere.

[gerontocrat]

But  how do you get a lot, an awful lot, of tons of nickel orbiting earth at (say) 5 miles (8 kms) a second from there to gigafactory 1 at zero velocity?

A few years ago when Planetary Resources started, I asked a similar question. Someone answered "That's easy, gravity". I just shut up and took it as the correct answer. I assume that they will just crash it somewhere.

Asteroids are supposed to be a threat. 100 tons of nickel could do a lot of damage at 5 miles per second.
And how many tons not vaporised on the way down

[Archimid]

I agree. It is not as simple as "gravity", but the host of problems that must be solved before we can even change the trajectory of asteroids made the answer of "gravity" good enough. At least back then. Now with reusable rockets a reality and access to space becoming cheaper before the turn of  the decade it may be worth giving it a few whirls. 

The right approach seems to be securing propellant. They are looking for water in asteroids to convert to fuel, but if they can land on an asteroid even throwing asteroid pieces on the opposite direction they want to travel at high enough speeds might do the trick.

If they can change the orbit of the asteroid towards earth, then slowing down, fitting the asteroid with thermal protection and find it a suitable spot to crash into might be doable. The trick is not to carry the propellant from Earth, but to somehow get from space.

And remember, asteroid crashes are 100% natural.

[Archimid]

Ken Feldman, I think you have the most likely solution to the problem. Between more efficient resource extraction, recycling and chemistry changes battery resources should not become a huge problem for decades.

[Tor Bejnar]

Thanks, you all, for this discussion on material costs in a greatly expanding market.  (Not that I'm attempting to end it.)

[Sigmetnow]

Australia:  Labor will subsidise 100,000 household batteries, and aim to help one million more households have battery systems by 2025 if it wins the next federal election.

Labor's $15 billion energy investment

"The beauty of the batteries is that the energy is going to be there when you need it not just when the sun is shining," Mr Shorten told the Nine Network.
...
The Smart Energy Council estimates new household battery systems could help homes save more than 60 per cent on their power bills.

They would also reduce peak demand in the electricity grid and improve the grid's reliability.

https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/labor-ready-to-unveil-energy-policy/news-story/7d3fb8916b7b9e2f427f0e6ac3c3c23c

[gerontocrat]

Surprised TESLA not blowing the trumpet on this... big batteries rule, OK.

And meanwhile the lunatic Aussie right-wing Federal Government is still mounting a rearguard action against all things renewable despite being hammered in recent state government  elections and a total humiliation in the by-election in the constituency of their recently defenestrated Prime Minister. Sort of the US in miniature.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/tesla-big-battery-turns-one-celebrates-50-million-in-grid-savings-95920/
Tesla big battery turns one, celebrates $50 million in grid savings

The Tesla big battery in South Australia on Friday celebrates its first anniversary since swinging into action on November 30 last year – a day before its official opening.

In that period, the 100MW/129MWh Tesla big battery – officially known as the Hornsdale Power Reserve – has defied the critics and naysayers and proved that it can make money, lower prices and boost grid security. More than that, it has become a major signpost to the future of faster, cheaper, smarter and cleaner grid.

What is already known is most of those savings have been achieved by smashing the cartel of gas generators that was controlling prices in the FCAS market.

The battery’s presence means that a network constraint imposed in South Australia that was repeatedly rorted by those generators is no longer needed.or imposed.

More importantly, the success of the battery has paved the way for other installations. Another two batteries in Victoria – at the Gannawarra solar farm (Tesla) and the Ballarat network hub (Fluence) have nearly completed commissioning, and a third is soon to join at the Wattle Point wind farm in South Australia.

Then a  third wave will emerge at the Kennedy (Tesla), Lake Bonney (Tesla), Lincoln Gap (Fluence), Bulgana (Tesla) and Snowtown wind and solar projects. UK billionaire Sanjeev Gupta has big plans for an even bigger battery near Whyalla, and batteries at Newman and Alice Springs have proved their worth in supporting diesel and gas generators and slashing fuel costs.

[gerontocrat]

Meanwhile, in France (and its oversea territories), real movement on big battery /grid stabilisation systems plus solar/wind power.

It looks like President Macron's government is doing one thing right, at least.

https://www.energy-storage.news/news/neoens-6mwh-france-battery-system-is-preparation-for-new-breed-of-storage-a

Neoen’s 6MWh France battery system is preparation for ‘new breed’ of storage arriving in Europe

[Sigmetnow]

Australia

Tesla's giant 'Virtual Power Plant' made of 50k homes and Powerwalls enters 2nd phase

Tesla’s ambitious plan to establish a 250 MW/650 MWh “Virtual Power Plant” in South Australia is moving to its second phase. In an announcement last week, Minister for Energy and Mining Dan van Holst Pellekaan stated that initiatives are now underway to install Powerwall 2 home battery units and solar panels to another 1,000 Housing SA properties.

The proposed Virtual Power Plant was conceived by Tesla and South Australia’s former Labor government earlier this year. The project is undoubtedly ambitious, involving 50,000 connected homes, each fitted with a 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery and a 5 kW rooftop solar system. The 50,000 houses are expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity. Just like Tesla’s Powerpack farm in South Australia, the VPP will be capable of providing additional grid stability by shifting demand away from a stressed grid during peak hours.

The first phase of the project, which involved the installation of batteries and solar panels to the first 100 houses of the VPP, has been successful so far. Households that are part of the existing system have reported a 70% reduction in their grid consumption, leading to lower power bills. With the first trial phase done, Tesla and solar retail partner Energy Locals are now looking to add 1,000 more households to the system.
...
If the second phase of the Virtual Power Plant proves successful, the third, most ambitious phase of the project will commence. Provided that funding for the estimated AU$800 million ($628 million) project is secured, the system would grow to 50,000 homes over the next few years. When complete, the 50,000-strong Virtual Power Plant is expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity, dwarfing the highly successful Hornsdale Power Reserve near Jamestown, which has a 100MW/129MWh capacity.

Watch Tesla’s teaser for the South Australia Virtual Power Plant in the video [at the link].

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-virtual-power-plant-south-australia-second-phase/

[Archimid]

Fluoride discovery could lead to much longer-lasting EV batteries

http://hondanews.com/releases/honda-research-institute-and-university-researchers-develop-breakthrough-battery-chemistry

Fluoride-ion batteries offer a promising new battery chemistry with up to ten times more energy density than currently available Lithium batteries," said Dr. Christopher Brooks, Chief Scientist, Honda Research Institute, and a co-author of the paper. "Unlike Li-ion batteries, FIBs do not pose a safety risk due to overheating, and obtaining the source materials for FIBs creates considerably less environmental impact than the extraction process for lithium and cobalt."

...

Currently, solid-state fluoride ion-conducting battery iterations need to operate at elevated temperatures–above 150 degrees Celsius–to make the electrolyte fluoride-conducting. According to the paper's authors, these limitations in the electrolyte have presented a significant challenge for achieving low-temperature operating FIBs.

To address this, the research team found a method for creating a fluoride-ion electrochemical cell capable of operating at room temperature–a breakthrough made possible by a chemically stable liquid fluoride-conducting electrolyte with high ionic conductivity and a wide operating voltage. The scientists developed the electrolyte using dry tetraalkylammonium fluoride salts dissolved in an organic, fluorinated ether solvent. When paired with a composite cathode featuring a core-shell nanostructure of copper, lanthanum and fluorine, the researchers demonstrated reversible electrochemical cycling at room temperature.

[Sigmetnow]

By the Reno [Nevada] Gazette.

It's big, loud and secretive: We got a tour of Tesla's Gigafactory and here's how it works
https://www.rgj.com/story/news/2018/12/10/reno-sparks-nevada-tesla-gigafactory-factory-model-3-sedan-jobs/2211115002/
With photos and video.

[Sigmetnow]

According to the document, a Tesla Megapack consists of long 23′-5″ (7.14m) x 5′-3″ (1.60m) battery system, which the company mostly installs back to back with another unit.

Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California

Tesla is listing the project as having a total capacity of 1,200 MWh, which would mean that each Megapack has a capacity of 2,673 kWh.

That’s more than 12 times the capacity of Powerpack 2 in a package that could potentially fit about 8 Powerpacks.

The total capacity of those 449 Megapacks represents more energy capacity than Tesla Energy deployed throughout its first 3 years of operation – all Powerpacks and Powerwalls combined. ...

https://electrek.co/2018/12/15/tesla-megapack-debut-giant-energy-storage/

Commissioned by PG&E at the Moss Landing substation.

[Archimid]

The California Public Utilities Commission approved the project last month and along with 3 other energy storage system, the new energy storage capacity is so important that it will replace three gas power plants.

Three gas power plants. Frigging awesome.

[gerontocrat]

The article suggests that for grid-scale stationary storage systems flow batteries may end up the preferred solution over lithium-ion due to longer power discharge times and reducing cost. In another article cell-cube claim that have a 10 year old unit with 11,000 cycles on the clock still at 99% capacity.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-24/canada-battery-maker-says-flow-storage-costs-to-tumble-by-half  (in 4 years)

Canada Battery Maker Says Flow Storage Costs to Tumble by Half
Bloomberg News
24 December 2018, 03:11 GMT Updated on 24 December 2018, 16:00 GMT

CellCube Energy Storage Systems Inc., a Canada-listed maker of batteries that can last for as long as two decades, said the cost of its technology may halve within four years, potentially boosting its uptake over lithium-ion units.

Costs of its vanadium redox flow battery units, which can discharge power for four hours, will decline to $150 per kilowatt hour from $300, President Stefan Schauss said in a phone interview from Toronto this month. Batteries with eight hours of duration will slump to $100 from $200, he said.

Utilities and renewable energy suppliers are increasingly looking to store intermittent wind and sun-generated power to balance out power flows to grids and deploy the electricity when demand peaks. About $620 billion in investment will be required to meet the global energy storage needs that will surge to a cumulative 942 gigawatts by 2040, according to Bloomberg NEF.

“The stationary energy storage market is in an inflection point,” said Schauss, adding that users increasingly prefer storage with longer duration. Combined with falling costs of flow batteries, “lithium batteries may have a hard time to compete.”

[sidd]

More on vanadium redox flow batteries:

https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/its-big-and-longlived-and-it-wont-catch-fire-the-vanadium-redoxflow-battery

https://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/12312/Massive-800-MegaWatt-hour-Battery-to-Be-Deployed-in-China.aspx

https://www.engineering.com/ElectronicsDesign/ElectronicsDesignArticles/ArticleID/8536/Turning-Toxic-Waste-into-Batteries.aspx

Second link claims 20MW 80 MWH in cargo container. Not too bad. hundred of these in a football stadium could power one of several millionstrong midwestern towns that i wander past. Probably best to colocate with large consumers to cut down prices for xmission and xformer yards.

now you still got HCL in volume and vanadium to deal with in case of a spill, but thats what spill control protocols are for. And it dont catch fire like sodium sulfur.

sidd

[SteveMDFP]

More on vanadium redox flow batteries:
 
now you still got HCL in volume and vanadium to deal with in case of a spill, but thats what spill control protocols are for. And it dont catch fire like sodium sulfur.

sidd

Thanks, sidd.  I think we'll hear more about vanadium flow batteries in the future.  It already has an important use in steel, so industrial uses are not a foreign concept.  Pricey stuff, but flow batteries keep re-using the same vanadium ions over and over.  Such stationary flow batteries may be a no-brainer addition to big solar photovoltaic systems in the near future.  And yes, as toxic spills are concerned, one could do far worse than vanadium, mostly toxic when inhaled.

We might avert catastrophes with such technology, if needed investments can be made fast enough.

[sidd]

Re: Such stationary flow batteries may be a no-brainer addition to big solar photovoltaic systems in the near future.

absolutely, colocate near intermittent generation which has transformer yard  and big transmission right there as well as my suggestion of colocating with large consumers. The latter can make some serious coin off peak shaving, and the former off peak production.

sidd