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nanning

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1150 on: September 09, 2019, 07:39:58 PM »
Quote
We all err.... :)
Thanks NeilT :)

I in my opinion, batteries and all that EV technology and 'renewable' energy etc. are no more than an extension of BAU and therefore a wrong direction. We know BAU (business-as-usual) is wrong. We have to change our capitalist luxury lazy profitloving temptation easy consumerist system before 2030 according to science.
We really need to drastically lower our energy use! We can't afford any more emissions. 415ppm is far far too high already. The whole biosphere is breaking down. I wish I could make you snap out of the dream (I'm not addressing just you NeilT).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

NeilT

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1151 on: September 09, 2019, 08:03:23 PM »
China is still fairly communist, read the figures.

Both China and the USSR, in their communist days, committed the worst environmental atrocities and just ignored all complaints.

The Capitalists, on the other hand, created environmental laws, tried to reign in excesses and give their children a fit place to spend all that money they have amassed.

If you read the stats I posted, it is no longer the Capitalists who are rapaciously consuming all the FF in the world.  The Children of Capitalism, are growing up and outgrowing their parents.

Your view, whilst one which may appeal to many, is out of date and needs revision.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1152 on: September 09, 2019, 08:29:31 PM »
My power walls are being installed today. I am looking forward to playing with the energy management app. Will soon have two power walls connected to my solar panels. My wife and I could easily get by with a plug in Prius for the little local driving we do so I have no plans for a model 3. A used plug in Prius is next .
 Hauling pigs to market once a month requires more horsepower and fuel than all other household monthly driving combined. My 30 year old truck will still be our families largest emitter . Eight freezers, air conditioner, water wells, refrigerator, batteries and lighting are all now supplied with solar. Don't need much household heating around here.
 I can feed us and power our farm with very little fossil fuels but earning a living farming still requires
fossil fuels( delivery to markets and grain purchases ) It takes money for all the infrastructure so we will have to keep working. Even with everything paid for we will both still keep working. I don't think any of what I do is either difficult or unaffordable for people who can afford to buy a house. Everything including the house will be paid for before I die. Strange though that none of this seems to affect property values but if the economy crashes at least we can afford our utilities because they are already paid in advance.
 
Nanning, BAU is still a valid description for my lifestyle choices. Maybe I am heading in the right direction but I believe a rigorous accounting of all the embodied energy it takes to get off the grid needs to be done on working examples around the world. First we need working examples ! We need desperately to compare low carbon options . Zero is impossible without sinking carbon somehow so I pursue farming although even farming will not sink carbon in some climate conditions. If it rained around here and stayed green year round sinking carbon would work but under desert conditions sinking carbon and zero emissions are a pipe dream.
 

sidd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1153 on: September 09, 2019, 08:46:56 PM »
Re:  My 30 year old truck will still be our families largest emitter

dont you make biodiesel ? or does the truck run on gasoline ?

sidd

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1154 on: September 09, 2019, 10:06:25 PM »
Sidd, I do make bio for my old tractor but it doesn't use much. It comes down to money sometimes and to replace my gas refrigerated truck with a diesel refer truck and make the 400+ gallons of bio it would annually take to get me to Fresno would eat about every cent of profit I make , and then some.
 I keep trying to make the point that running a business without fossil fuels is something quite different than subsistence farming. I can subsist here only because I have spent money I made working ,for wells, solar, batteries,etc. I can quit working but then everything is in a glide path because I can no longer afford infrastructure improvements. I need an income but I also need to make a profit.
 Sometimes I think I should just plant native oaks on my bottomland, grow them big enough to make it hard for the next generation to cut and stump them , and forget about renewable ag.
 I have a lot of respect for you Sidd. You are educated, manage about the best renewable farming business I know about and I hope you are well rewarded. Most of us small time farmers are both dependent on outside incomes from both husband and wife and still struggle. We lose money farming more often than we have profitable years. I am just about old enough to know I can't keep up the workload because a knee or a hip or just about anything physical will likely jump up and bite me soon enough. The farm is worth the effort, plenty of people thank me for the effort, the happy pigs are almost reward enough . I don't want to sound like I'm complaining , I'd do it all again if given the chance. Making a profit and zero carbon is a long row to hoe...  not there.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1155 on: September 10, 2019, 02:57:36 AM »
You go, Bruce!  Here’s hoping that before your 30-year-old truck bites the dust, a vehicle-share program is established in your area that will allow you to call up a truck when you require one, rather than needing to buy another one yourself.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1156 on: September 10, 2019, 03:48:21 AM »

Well,Archimid, that is unfortunately not true:

Gas/coal on average produce cca. 500kg-1 ton of Co2e to generate 1 MWh

So if a 1MWh battery used 2370 t of Co2e  during manufacturing, it needs to be 100% recharged with energy 2370-4740 times before the offset you mentioned starts to work. Since these are not recharged every day, you would need at the very least 20-30 years before the offset starts to work, but in reality more like 100+ years.

See:
https://www.quora.com/Where-can-I-find-data-for-CO2-emissions-per-MWh-for-electricity-sources-for-example-coal-vs-nat-gas


Batteries  are very dirty actually

And you didn't even add the emissions of extracting, processing, transporting and distributing fossil fuels. You only calculated the emissions while producing power.

Fossil fuels will be our end, but we can stop using them AND have a better world. There is still time.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1157 on: September 10, 2019, 04:11:57 AM »
Thanks Sig !  Well they are all wired up and waiting for start up and county inspection. They still have the plastic protection over the Tesla name.
 Like I said the power walls aren't working yet but as some sort of affirmation there was wind ,a big fire, and PG&E shut down our power for several hours. No threat of fire near the ranch but PG&E has been warning about blackouts under certain weather conditions. The new normal I think. The fire was caused by someone dragging a trailer chain I think because it started in multiple places on the freeway shoulder.

sidd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1158 on: September 10, 2019, 06:20:22 AM »
Re: diesel reefer

We run a few of those, the big traction engines are OK (except for the 5-10% drop in power) but, boy, we had a helluva time getting the reefer engine to like biodiesel. It starts and stops intermittently when the thermostat fires, and absolutely didn't like that on biodiesel, specially when cold, and it only fires for a little bit now and then.

Wound up doing complicated things, including changing out reefer motors, but thats a topic for another thread. Do we have an HVAC thread ?

sidd

nanning

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1159 on: September 10, 2019, 06:58:59 AM »
For readers who are not from the America's:
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/reefer

  Etymology 2
Clipping of refrigerator.
reefer (plural reefers)
    (colloquial, chiefly US) A refrigerated, insulated trailer, ship or shipping container.
    (rail transport, US) a refrigerator car (type of boxcar).

  Etymology 3
Origin uncertain. Perhaps from regional Spanish grifa (“cannabis”) (Mexico), grifo (“someone who smokes cannabis”) (Central America).
reefer (plural reefers)
    (slang) A marijuana cigarette.
    (slang, uncountable) Marijuana.
 ;D
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1160 on: September 10, 2019, 08:09:29 AM »
China is still fairly communist, read the figures.

Let's start with the definition. ;)

Quote
communism
/ˈkɒmjʊnɪz(ə)m/
noun
a theory or system of social organization in which all property is owned by the community and each person contributes and receives according to their ability and needs.

With this in mind, how is China fitting this definition? In China, you have poor farmers and billionaires. Businesses are privately owned.

China is a neoliberal economy with an authoritarian government. Very much like the US these days...

You need to know, when the west in the 80s started their neoliberal war against humanity, it was a Chinese idea. It was Deng Xiaoping who floated the idea of privatizing to open China to the west. Thatcher, Reagan, and Kohl loved it and immediately adopted this policy, slashing welfare and privatized public goods and services.

NeilT

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1161 on: September 10, 2019, 10:25:41 AM »
Communism is, in my estimation, the very worst face of Capitalism.  Where the very smallest elite own everything and everyone else gets to be a serf.

It is the biggest con ever.

So every time someone justifies their CO2 mitigation efforts by some collective, neo communist, swipe at capitalism, I am inclined to present a different view.

Communism was never the collective ideal.  The remains of communism are rooted in the single party state.

I visited the USSR satellites in the 70's with open eyes. Nothing I have seen since has changed my view.

We see, on this thread, the Capitalist energy water trying incredibly hard to reduce FF emissions and the, what, Socialist?  Calling the "capitalist" an energy waster.  Being a Vegan, using public transport and calling others Capitalists does little to change the energy balance of the country you live in.

But, anyway, we should get back to batteries.  Because the capitalist are well aware that if we don't transition to EV, CO2 Neutral energy and portable energy storage, they'll lose a few billion customers and that's a bad business model.  Because none of us Capitalists care about the human costs do we?

Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1162 on: September 10, 2019, 11:21:51 AM »
Quote
in my estimation,

Shall we use words in the context of their meaning or is it helpful to project very subjective things on them in the assumption the talking partner would know about them? Let's just stick to the former, because it's making the conversation way easier.

The CO2 emissions of a country is not a function of the political system per se. Sure, the Chinese government may decide to ban fossils just like that. That's not possible in the US.

We have a two-party fake-democracy country and a one-party fake-communist country. Both are emitting too much CO2. As does any 'western' country. This is because we all use the wrong primary energy sources. We use them because of the price. The price is a function of markets. The US and China are operating on one world market at almost the same market rules. Ergo the free market is the problem, not the economic/political label you put on countries.

There is one way out though: Put a price on externalities and make it a market rule by using market tools (i.e. taxation).

El Cid

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1163 on: September 10, 2019, 12:08:42 PM »


There is one way out though: Put a price on externalities and make it a market rule by using market tools (i.e. taxation).

There you have it. The problem is incentives not the system itself. Put a reasonable price on carbon AND all other pollutants, especially plastics and the market system will sort it out. You will have plenty of green energy, sustainable agriculture, etc. simply by changing the incentives (pricing externalities)

NevB

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1164 on: September 10, 2019, 03:28:17 PM »


There is one way out though: Put a price on externalities and make it a market rule by using market tools (i.e. taxation).

There you have it. The problem is incentives not the system itself. Put a reasonable price on carbon AND all other pollutants, especially plastics and the market system will sort it out. You will have plenty of green energy, sustainable agriculture, etc. simply by changing the incentives (pricing externalities)

This is as clear an example as you will ever get of the effect of a carbon price.
While this was in effect the economy was also growing.



Not enough to avoid 2C but a step in the right direction.

The image is from here (I couldn't find a bigger pic)
http://econews.com.au/62140/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-continue-to-rise/

NeilT

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1165 on: September 11, 2019, 07:36:05 PM »
A larger image.



There were a lot more things going on than just Carbon pricing during that time, including adjustment to the restrictions the financial crisis put on the world economy.

Talking about just pricing carbon, you might say that the direct approach, directly led to trump being elected.

At the end of 2011 Germany decided to shut down all nuclear reactors.  By 2016 they had managed 10, significantly increasing direct CO2 emissions from coal power generation and also secondary emissions by sucking in Coal fired electricity from neighbours plus (hypocritical), not a small amount of Nuclear power too.

Simultaneously China kicked into high gear with the resurgence of 1st World finances and India also started increasing emissions at a much higher rate.

Then we have the figures on China Coal consumption and CO2 emissions.

Quote
In 2015, official statistics revealed that previous statistics had been systematically underestimated by 17%, corresponding to the entire CO2 emissions of Germany.[16]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China

It is easy to point to a chart and show one factor and say "see it was that".  But the chart is global and so is the market which produces CO2.
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein

jai mitchell

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1166 on: September 12, 2019, 05:39:42 AM »
Tesla's Partnership Virtual Power Plant with the South Australian Government is now oversubscribed and looking toward 'Phase 3"

https://reneweconomy.com.au/south-australia-says-tesla-virtual-power-plant-charging-ahead-84199/
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cmcgugan

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1167 on: September 13, 2019, 08:09:16 PM »
Interest Is Rising in Energy Storage for Building Resiliencehttps://www.navigantresearch.com/news-and-views/interest-is-rising-in-energy-storage-for-building-resilience.
Quote
Recent extreme weather events and natural disasters, such as hurricanes Harvey and Irma, draw attention to a new use case in commercial building retrofits for building resilience and independence. Natural disasters are only expected to grow in frequency and severity because of climate change. One of the key effects of these events are power outages, as seen in Puerto Rico. Building owners are taking note of this new threat and looking at energy storage and solar plus storage solutions for their building portfolios.
Batteries or other forms of energy storage can be used to make buildings more resilient to grid outages especially when combined with renewable energy generation such as PV. In the building design and operation fields there is a growing awareness that while "Green" buildings can help reduce energy use and CO2 production, we also need to prepare buildings for a more extreme climate.

Ken Feldman

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1168 on: September 27, 2019, 07:19:36 PM »
GE is shifting from producing turbines for steam plants (i.e. coal and natural gas) into batteries for renewable plants.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/09/27/ge-renewable-energy-wins-battery-storage-contracts-in-california-south-australia/

Quote
General Electric profits have been hammered recently because a large part of its business involved supplying generating systems powered by steam. As the world transitions to renewable energy, steam turbines are less and less in demand and GE’s business has suffered as a result.

But the company is reinventing itself as a provider of grid scale energy storage systems and has recently received two important contracts — one to provide a total of 100 MWh of battery storage at three locations in California and another for 300 MWh of storage in South Australia.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1169 on: October 02, 2019, 05:17:08 AM »
My power walls have been up and running a couple weeks . I can watch my solar input and power uses on my Tesla app.  On most days the powerwalls contribute ~35 % and the solar contributing the remaining 65 % . 100 % solar/battery electric , on most days. When it is really cloudy the power in the powerwalls gets drawn down and two days of clouds results in power being drawn from the grid . Most days however I am putting power back on the grid while still running my home and business freezers with 100% solar/battery.
 The air conditioner is a power hog and on really hot days it can eat all the energy my solar produces.
The pressure pump for my water system uses enough energy that I can see if I left a faucet open on the app. The app is really fun !  It tells me how many kWh my home uses, how much solar is produced,
how much the powerwalls contributes but it doesn’t tell you how much power you put back on the grid .
You can figure it out subtracting power used from power produced with the excess as power to the grid.
I have to start taking meter readings and figure out how to read a “ smart meter “ . It doesn’t take long to figure out where to concentrate future energy saving projects.
 On good days my solar produces ~ 30 kWh my home uses ~ 11 kWh (65%solar/35% batt)according
to the app. The power accrues to run the 3 phase well pumps on a separate meter.  I will be looking to see what my monthly averages are when I get there.

TerryM

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1170 on: October 02, 2019, 05:42:25 AM »
^^
Congrats Bruce
Sounds like a big step in the right direction!
Terry

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1171 on: October 02, 2019, 05:58:53 AM »
Thanks Terry. It is all pretty much automatic , it just affords the opportunity to watch. I wonder what kWh a house is supposed to run on in a decade or two ? 

blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1172 on: October 02, 2019, 06:15:36 AM »
Yeah, congrats Bruce!

Don't forget to tell everyone about this (even the ones who don't wanna know). Word to mouth is the best marketing for renewables. :)

TerryM

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1173 on: October 02, 2019, 08:03:39 AM »
Thanks Terry. It is all pretty much automatic , it just affords the opportunity to watch. I wonder what kWh a house is supposed to run on in a decade or two ?
Your situation with the commercial freezers is going to be unique. I don't know how they'd force down residential use but I suspect it will be by mandating highly progressive rates. Enough energy to run the fridge, cook your meals and watch some TV will be very inexpensive, but costs will ramp up very rapidly.


The Best
Terry
« Last Edit: October 02, 2019, 08:16:42 PM by TerryM »

oren

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1174 on: October 02, 2019, 12:08:16 PM »
Thanks for sharing your experience Bruce.

gerontocrat

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1175 on: October 02, 2019, 12:28:46 PM »
Thanks for sharing your experience Bruce.
Hullo Bruce,

Energy efficiency - are there any low cost things you can do to your house to reduce the air-con load ?

I worked in rural Africa in places and the years BAC (Before Air-Conditioning). Traditional house design (over-hanging eaves / verandahs on the sunny side, smaller windows, outside shades, even changes to the roof to encourage drafts through the roof space) worked quite well for most of the year.

The modern thin-skinned concrete box was and is total junk, as is the tin roof instead of thatch.
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rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1176 on: October 03, 2019, 07:02:07 PM »
The $2.5 trillion reason we can’t rely on batteries to clean up the grid

Quote
Lithium-ion batteries could compete economically with these natural-gas peakers within the next five years, says Marco Ferrara, a cofounder of Form Energy, an MIT spinout developing grid storage batteries. “The gas peaker business is pretty close to ending, and lithium-ion is a great replacement,” he says.

Quote
But much beyond this role, batteries run into real problems. The authors of the 2016 study found steeply diminishing returns when a lot of battery storage is added to the grid. They concluded that coupling battery storage with renewable plants is a “weak substitute” for large, flexible coal or natural-gas combined-cycle plants, the type that can be tapped at any time, run continuously, and vary output levels to meet shifting demand throughout the day.

Not only is lithium-ion technology too expensive for this role, but limited battery life means it’s not well suited to filling gaps during the days, weeks, and even months when wind and solar generation flags. This problem is particularly acute in California, where both wind and solar fall off precipitously during the fall and winter months.

This leads to a critical problem: when renewables reach high levels on the grid, you need far, far more wind and solar plants to crank out enough excess power during peak times to keep the grid operating through those long seasonal dips, says Jesse Jenkins, a coauthor of the study and an energy systems researcher. That, in turn, requires banks upon banks of batteries that can store it all away until it’s needed. And that ends up being astronomically expensive.

Quote
There are issues California can’t afford to ignore for long. The state is already on track to get 50 percent of its electricity from clean sources by 2020, and the legislature is once again considering a bill that would require it to reach 100 percent by 2045. To complicate things, regulators voted in January to close the state’s last nuclear plant, a carbon-free source that provides 24 percent of PG&E’s energy. That will leave California heavily reliant on renewable sources to meet its goals.

Quote
The Clean Air Task Force, a Boston-based energy policy think tank, recently found that reaching the 80 percent mark for renewables in California would mean massive amounts of surplus generation during the summer months, requiring 9.6 million megawatt-hours of energy storage. Achieving 100 percent would require 36.3 million. The state currently has 150,000 megawatt-hours of energy storage in total. (That’s mainly pumped hydroelectric storage, with a small share of batteries.)

Quote
Similarly, a study earlier this year in Energy & Environmental Science found that meeting 80 percent of US electricity demand with wind and solar would require either a nationwide high-speed transmission system, which can balance renewable generation over hundreds of miles, or 12 hours of electricity storage for the whole system (see “Relying on renewables alone significantly inflates the cost of overhauling energy”). At current prices, a battery storage system of that size would cost more than $2.5 trillion.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/611683/the-25-trillion-reason-we-cant-rely-on-batteries-to-clean-up-the-grid/

blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1177 on: October 03, 2019, 07:37:22 PM »
This stinking pile of shit article is debunked so often by now, why is it still shared??

The original study is from 2016 and not at all that negative.

Quote
In a case study of a system with load and renewable resource characteristics from the U.S. state of Texas, we find that energy storage delivers value by increasing the cost-effective penetration of renewable energy, reducing total investments in nuclear power and gas-fired peaking units, and improving the utilization of all installed capacity.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1178 on: October 04, 2019, 06:39:23 PM »
The cost of solar/ batteries can be shouldered by residential and small businesses . The public supported grid will have serious problems when large numbers of current utilities users go off grid.
Utilities will be challenged with a shrinking number of customers and cost demands for servicing an aging grid infrastructure.
 If the cost of electricity tracked availability winter costs could rise to compensate for annual fluctuations in solar intensity. People can adapt and costs will drive adaption. Just give them a Tesla power app. and let them figure out how to change bad habits that current grid users can’t parse out in their monthly electric bill. Better yet have an open market with a real time electric rate that individuals and small businesses could use to sell private energy back to the grid. That way the people who can afford to go off grid have a reason to stay hooked up, to make money !


rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1179 on: October 04, 2019, 06:48:54 PM »
This stinking pile of shit article is debunked so often by now, why is it still shared??

The original study is from 2016 and not at all that negative.

Quote
In a case study of a system with load and renewable resource characteristics from the U.S. state of Texas, we find that energy storage delivers value by increasing the cost-effective penetration of renewable energy, reducing total investments in nuclear power and gas-fired peaking units, and improving the utilization of all installed capacity.

Below is the abstract of the underlying study, which I have read. I have italicized the part that you quoted AND highlighted the very next sentence. I have also bolded the piece that notes that the marginal benefit of storage diminishes with scale.

i.e. In small scale, storage does offer a lot of benefits BUT as you scale up to allow for greater amounts of variable renewables there are significant cost issues. These researchers call for "flexible nuclear" as an answer (one I do not agree with).

$2.5 trillion is not actually that much spread out over a 10-year period, lets remember that Trump gave away $1 trillion in his last tax cut and the "flying pig" F35 already cost $1 trillion. The US economy is $20 trillion in size. A good-sized "weapons to ploughshares" program could easily provide such funding. The yearly real US defence budget (when all hidden costs are taken into account) is about $1 trillion per year, a quarter of that would fund the required grid/battery investments. The "market" will not fix this problem by itself, large-scale government action can. Thats how the US highway system was built.

Quote
Electrical energy storage could play an important role in decarbonizing the electricity sector by offering anew, carbon-free source of operational flexibility, improving the utilization of generation assets, and facilitating the integration of variable renewable energy sources. Yet, the future cost of energy storage technologies is uncertain, and the value that they can bring to the system depends on multiple factors. Moreover, the marginal value of storage diminishes as more energy storage capacity is deployed. To explore the potential value of energy storage in deep decarbonization of the electricity sector, we assess the impact of increasing levels of energy storage capacity on both power system operations and investments in generation capacity using a generation capacity expansion model with detailed unit commitment constraints. In a case study of a system with load and renewable resource characteristics from the U.S. state of Texas, we find that energy storage delivers value by increasing the cost-effective penetration of renewable energy, reducing total investments in nuclear power and gas-fired peaking units, and improving the utilization of all installed capacity. However, we find that the value delivered by energy storage with a 2-hour storage capacity only exceeds current technology costs under strict emissions limits, implying that substantial cost reductions in battery storage are needed to justify large-scale deployment. In contrast, storage resources with a 10-hour storage capacity deliver value consistent with the current cost of pumped hydroelectric storage. In general, while energy storage appears essential to enable decarbonization strategies dependent on very high shares of wind and solar energy, storage is not a requisite if a diverse mix of flexible, low-carbon power sources is employed, including flexible nuclear power.

gerontocrat

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1180 on: October 04, 2019, 08:13:37 PM »
The real purpose of the study is revealed in the last 4 words of the last sentence

"In general, while energy storage appears essential to enable decarbonization strategies dependent on very high shares of wind and solar energy, storage is not a requisite if a diverse mix of flexible, low-carbon power sources is employed, including flexible nuclear power."

Yep, a pile of shit indeed.
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oren

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1181 on: October 04, 2019, 11:52:01 PM »
Obviously storage gives a diminishing return with scale.  The larger the battery, the less it is fully recycled (charge to discharge). But IMHO given the semi-predictable variability of solar power, a 10-hour storage could still have a very good payback.
I have not read the paper (stuck with a mobile for the next few days) but often such papers ignore other storage (regular hydro which is sometimes dispatchable), dispatchable loads (especially EVs which can be charged in a way that maximizes renewables usefulness), possibility to use gas plants as backup that are mostly idle, and the falling costs of batteries. If the paper is from 2016, the cost has already further plummeted and the case for batteries improved.
Nuclear?? Too expensive, too inflexible, too many long-term problems. Nah.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2019, 07:33:26 AM by oren »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1182 on: October 05, 2019, 08:54:48 PM »
Saying that battery storage can’t replace coal plants because batteries can’t run for “days, weeks or months” is an overly simplistic view of battery storage that conveniently ignores battery benefits that coal or gas plants cannot provide:  instant grid balancing and ancillary services.

Quote
“In the first four months of operations of the Hornsdale Power Reserve (the official name of the Tesla big battery, owned and operated by Neoen), the frequency ancillary services prices went down by 90 per cent, so that’s 9-0 per cent.

“And the 100MW battery has achieved over 55 per cent of the FCAS revenues in South Australia. So it’s 2 per cent of the capacity in South Australia achieving 55 per cent of the revenues in South Australia.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/the-stunning-numbers-behind-success-of-tesla-big-battery-63917/

Battery storage with its unparalleled technological capabilities keeps the grid balanced using fewer fossil fuel or nuclear plants, expanding the utility of the renewable sources that replace them.
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TerryM

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1183 on: October 05, 2019, 09:23:37 PM »
^^
Very true, has anyone been making a counter argument?
Terry

rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1184 on: October 05, 2019, 11:51:22 PM »
The real purpose of the study is revealed in the last 4 words of the last sentence

"In general, while energy storage appears essential to enable decarbonization strategies dependent on very high shares of wind and solar energy, storage is not a requisite if a diverse mix of flexible, low-carbon power sources is employed, including flexible nuclear power."

Yep, a pile of shit indeed.

I have still not seen any factual debunking of this paper detailed, or a link to one provided. This would be very useful for my actual understanding. Statements backed up without facts are simply unfounded assertions. The academics involved may have a position, but this does by itself not invalidate the arguments made in a peer reviewed publication (I checked the authors' other papers which cover a lot of work on the economics of battery technology usage etc.).

I am reading through other papers which I have to take time to get my head around. The general agreement seems to be that up to 80% with storage and HVDC lines is quite reasonable. The cost then starts increasing rapidly as we approach 100% renewables+storage and 100% availability (the classic 80/20 rule hits again!). The costs may seem high, but spread over a decade or so it becomes much less of an issue.

When looking at weather patterns over decades there can be significant low-no wind/low-no solar periods (multiple days) which would require many multiples of the 80% storage amounts - the question becomes how to deal with those. There is the mix of demand destruction (agreed reductions to industry and business, networked appliances such as washing machines that are blocked, blocking of non-essential EV charging, brown outs etc.) and use of EV batteries etc. There is a lot of cultural change involved in the last 10% for a society used to continuous electricity supplies.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1185 on: October 06, 2019, 03:24:04 AM »
There are other types of battery systems than chemical batteries.  The most used today is pumped hydro which isn't everywhere practical.  Some are investigating compressed air.  I'm rather enamored with rail based mass 'batteries'.  I imagine what looks like a cog railroad, but at the top of the mountain is not a tourist attraction but hundreds/thousands of 2 m. cubes of granite (21.5 tonnes each) which can be put on cars which will generate electricity as they go down the hill on hot still nights, to be brought back up on sunny windy pleasant days.  (Don't want to induce a landslide, though!)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1186 on: October 06, 2019, 04:18:25 AM »
Microgrids
Western Australia Utility Removing Poles & Wires In Renewable Energy Transition
Quote
“The old-fashioned way of centralized generation being distributed by stringing poles and wires to the remote corners of Australia is giving way to solar and battery systems where energy is generated closer to where it is used,” AEMC chief executive Anne Pearson says. “These reforms mean that people living at the end of the line will get a better quality service with the same protections without paying any more.”
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/05/western-australia-utility-removing-poles-wires-in-renewable-energy-transition/
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blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1187 on: October 06, 2019, 06:47:46 AM »

blumenkraft

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1188 on: October 06, 2019, 07:04:13 AM »
There are other types of battery systems than chemical batteries.

There are a lot of electric energy storage technologies besides batteries, compressed air, and pumped hydroelectric.

For example, there are

- Flywheels (some flywheels use magnetic bearings, operate in a vacuum to reduce drag, and can attain rotational speeds up to 60,000 revolutions per minute)

- Thermal energy storage (electricity can be used to produce thermal energy, which can be stored until it is needed. For example, electricity can be used to produce chilled water or ice during times of low demand and later used for cooling during periods of peak electricity consumption or in radiators that can store warmth)

- Power to gas (there are multiple ways, hydrogen seems to be the most common one these days)

- Vehicle to grid (since BEVs have batteries, why not utilize it?)

- Molten Salt Storage (perfect in combination with thermal solar plants - already build in)

- Gravity storage (https://heindl-energy.com) (great podcast about the topic here >> https://omegataupodcast.net/299-gravity-storage/)

... and many more.

In general, you can utilize potential energy, kinetic energy, magnetic energy, capacitive energy, and chemical energy.

And this is all ignoring the fact that we don't need any storage at all if there is a big enough interconnected grid!

rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1189 on: October 06, 2019, 08:27:39 PM »
I have still not seen any factual debunking of this paper detailed, or a link to one provided.

https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/en/documents/publications/studies/What-will-the-energy-transformation-cost.pdf

Thankyou Blumenkraft, looks like very interesting reading.

From a first glance the 80/20 rule still seems to be in play, and they assume an inflation-adjusted 100 Euro CO2 per ton price (this balances the increase in costs relative to continuing with the current mix), and they target an 85% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.

They do assume a huge drop in energy demand (due to electrification efficiencies, more energy efficient appliances, and extensive building renovations etc.) from 3579 TWh to 2000 TWh - I don't see any concern about the Jevon's paradox. The lowered amount is then supplied by 66% renewables and 33% fossil fuels, with the assumption that natural gas has much lower CO2 emissions than coal. That assumption is correct, but ignores the the fugitive methane emissions.

What I see from the well thought out study (with some concerns about assumptions in some places) is the scale of the problem to transform society's (in this case Germany's) usage of energy to reduce CO2 emissions by 85%. The resultant mix (with reduced energy usage) is 66%/33% renewables/fossil fuels. So quite different from the 100% renewables scenario.


rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1190 on: October 06, 2019, 08:42:08 PM »
A Behind the Scenes Take on Lithium-ion Battery Prices - Bloomberg New Energy Futures

Very well written article, in detail answering the relative pessimists and optimists with respect to BNEFs forecast for battery prices. BNEF see prices dropping from $176/kWh to $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030. Thats a 2/3 reduction in price by 2030. Based on the learning curve with respect to doublings in volume.

Quote
In December 2018, BloombergNEF published the results of its ninth Battery Price Survey, a series that begin in 2012 looking back at data from as early as 2010. The annual price survey has become an important benchmark in the industry and the fall in prices has been nothing short of remarkable: the volume weighted average battery pack fell 85% from 2010-18, reaching an average of $176/kWh.

Quote
“Batteries will fall much faster than you are forecasting.” The key determinant of our forecast is the relationship between price and volume. From the observed historical values, we calculate a learning rate of around 18%. This means that for every doubling of cumulative volume, we observe an 18% reduction in price. Based on this observation, and our battery demand forecast, we expect the price of an average battery pack to be around $94/kWh by 2024 and $62/kWh by 2030.

https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/

rboyd

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1191 on: October 06, 2019, 09:25:43 PM »
Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap?

$20/kWh it seems for 100%, at 95% renewables its $150/kWh. Seems the Trancik Lab at MIT has many of the answers.

Battery prices are not the total cost of battery provided storage (installation, operating costs etc.), so I would conservatively think that $150/kWh all in cost is doable in the 2030 timeframe using BNEFs forecasts for battery prices. To bring the cross-over point forward would need a meaningful carbon tax.

Quote
But how cheap is cheap enough?

That question is the subject of a fascinating recent bit of research out of an MIT lab run by researcher Jessika Trancik (I’ve written about Trancik’s work before), just released in the journal Joule.

To spoil the ending: The answer is $20 per kilowatt hour in energy capacity costs. That’s how cheap storage would have to get for renewables to get to 100 percent. That’s around a 90 percent drop from today’s costs. While that is entirely within the realm of the possible, there is wide disagreement over when it might happen; few expect it by 2030.

Quote
It’s important to test renewable energy over longer time spans. In addition to daily and weekly fluctuations in solar and wind, there can be yearly or even multi-year fluctuations. And indeed, by looking back over 20 years, the team found several rare events in which wind and solar were both unusually low for an unusually long time. These rare events represent a spike in the amount of storage needed. Planning for them substantially increases the cost of a pure-renewables system.

For each of the four states, Trancik’s team [at MIT] modeled a renewables+storage system that has an “equivalent availability factor” (EAF) of 100 percent. That means the system would precisely match supply to demand, providing baseload, intermediate, and peaking power, given real-world resource-availability conditions, in every hour of every day, over 20 years.

(Actually, they did multiple scenarios per state: solar-only, wind-only, an optimized solar-wind mix, and all of those with two different tiers of storage technologies. I’m trying to keep it simple.)

That is a high bar: enough storage to accommodate any possible fluctuation of wind and solar over two decades.

The basic result is that storage energy-capacity costs have to fall to about $20 per kilowatt hour for a renewables+storage system to be cost competitive at the task of providing 100 percent of US energy.

Quote
First and most notably, loosen the amount of time that the system must meet demand and things get much easier for storage. And a 100 percent EAF is a little crazy anyway; the existing power system is not up and available 100 percent of the time. There are brownouts and blackouts, after all. No power system is 100 percent reliable.

Trancik’s team found that if the EAF target is lowered from 100 to 95 percent, the cost target that storage must hit rises to $150/kWh. (More specifically, lowering the EAF reduced the total cost of energy storage by 25 percent for the first tier of storage technologies and 48 percent for the second tier.) That’s a much more tractable number, within reach of existing technologies.

Quote
Why does lowering the EAF so little ease the pressure on storage so much? The explanation is in those rare meteorological events of extended low wind and sun. They don’t happen often over a 20-year span, but building enough storage to deal with them when they do happen makes the last few percent of EAF exponentially more expensive. To lower the EAF to 95 percent is to say, “something else can handle those rare events.” (As to what that something might be, we’ll discuss that later.)

Second, remember, the team is modeling a system in which storage is doing almost all the flexibility work. In fact, there are other sources of grid flexibility. My favorite candidate for flexibility dark horse is “load flexibility,” demand-side programs that can shift energy consumption around in time. Another source of flexibility is enhanced long-distance transmission, to carry renewable energy from regions that produce it to regions that need it. Another is dispatchable renewables like run-of-the-river hydro and advanced geothermal.

Quote
Third, a renewables+storage system also gets easier if renewables get cheaper. The numbers that Trancik’s team use for renewables are quite conservative. (For instance, $1/Watt solar costs are already being beat routinely in the US.) If renewable energy continues to defy expectations and plunge in cost, it would become cheaper and easier to oversize renewables and curtail the excess energy. That in turn would ease pressure on storage.

In short, the headline $20/kWh cost target for energy storage is almost certainly more stringent than what will be required in the real world. Even the $150/kWh target required for an EAF of 95 percent is likely too stringent. In the real world, storage will be assisted by other forms of grid flexibility like long-distance transmission, load flexibility, and microgrids, along with regulatory and legislative reforms. And renewables will probably continue to get cheaper faster than anyone predicts.




gerontocrat

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1192 on: October 06, 2019, 09:48:25 PM »
Getting to 100% renewables requires cheap energy storage. But how cheap?

It ain't necessarily so - because of the way the electricity market is working. When demand exceeds supply the price goes through the roof - that's how gas peaker plants still make money even when utilisation is so low.

Hence Tesla's S. Australia big battery is making loads of loot even though it has reduced the peak price by quite a bit and even though we are talking capital cost per KwH from a couple of years ago. It also collects energy while demand is less than supply as oftimes happens with solar and wind.

So big batteries of the right size in the right place can be money-makers and save the consumer  money while the market is rigged in this dumb manner.

A simple calculation of $ per KwH is insufficient to determine affordability in each possible location - and will change as networks adjust to more wind & solar, and more domestic /commerce/ industry installations with their own wind/solar/battery systems.
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Ken Feldman

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1193 on: October 08, 2019, 05:54:09 PM »
Scientists have achieved a big breakthrough in Lithium-Carbon Dioxide batteries.  If it can be brought to market, it will help with EVs, storage for renewable energy and provide a market for captured CO2.  They have seven times the energy density of current Lithium ion batteries, however, they only last 500 recharges.  That's a big step up from 10 charges which was their previous limit.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Tech-Breakthrough-Is-This-The-End-Of-Lithium-Ion-Batteries.html

Quote
For many years, scientists have salivated at the prospects of finding a material that could significantly extend the life of Li-ion batteries and allow them to last longer between charges. Now, researchers have discovered that lithium-carbon dioxide batteries fit the bill beautifully, since they possess up to 7x higher energy density than the common Li-ion batteries.

But one little problem has been dogging them, though: they just couldn’t figure out how to make them last beyond a few charge cycles.

Until now.

Only last year, researchers at MIT demonstrated a prototype that lasted a grand total of 10 charge cycles. At the time it was an important breakthrough that solved one of the problems in the market. It was a game-changer, even though it didn’t provide enough efficiency.

But now that’s about to change. The newer version by the University of Illinois is an even bigger step-up in terms of the shellacking it can take in the form of charge cycles before giving up the ghost.

The technical cul de sac that the researchers have overcome revolves around a tendency of carbon buildup on the catalyst during charging.

How it works

So, how does this new wonder gadget work?

According to Amin Salehi-Khojin, associate professor of mechanical and industrial engineering at UIC's College of Engineering and author of the paper, lithium-carbon dioxide batteries have been plagued by the accumulation of carbon, which not only blocks the active sites of the catalyst but also prevents efficient diffusion of carbon dioxide and triggers electrolyte decomposition in a charged state.

To get around this challenge, Salehi-Khojin and his colleagues used a hybrid electrolyte in conjunction with molybdenum disulfide as a cathode catalyst to help incorporate carbon in the cycling process.

In plain speak, the scientists created a single multi-component composite product rather than a hodgepodge of separate products, which helped to enhance the recycling process.

While the new batteries still cannot hold a candle to high-end Tesla batteries that can be recharged up to 5,000 times and last up to a million miles, 500 charge cycles is good enough to make them practical for many everyday uses, including in portable power packs, smartphones, UPS systems and possibly even some electric vehicles.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1194 on: October 09, 2019, 04:43:39 AM »
Calif. average monthly kWh use is between 500-600 per month. I am average I guess at the low end of average. But I run eight freezers, a couple refrigerators, an air conditioner and the pressure pump for my (and about a hundred pigs) water. So I ain’t normal even if i’ m average. The solar panels are producing about 800 kWh per month and with the powerwall batteries covering 100% of nighttime use I can run my home and farm freezers without grid use. It is taking a bit of practice totally getting off of grid use however because if two big power draws like the air conditioner and the water pump run at the same time it will pull more power than the powerwall can deliver and the grid will supply the excess. I have gone as long as ten days with zero grid use for my home power but it will take some practice to make that a month or two.
I still have another three phase meter that runs on grid power. However with net metering the kWh I send to the grid from my solar array can offset the kWh I draw from the grid on the three phase meter that supplies my agricultural water well pumps. So not everything is technically solar but the power necessary can and is being supplied for all my home and farm uses.
I learned that the powerwall app. started counting total power both supplied to the grid and drawn from the grid after PG&E recognized my powerwall. I am also getting a lot better at reading my smart meters. Still fun !

 
.
 

Archimid

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1195 on: October 09, 2019, 09:17:39 AM »
Bruce Steele, it brings me great happiness every time I hear someone achieved a high level of energy independence. May your system serve you well and last you a long time.

If I may ask some questions, what is your typical state of charge during the daily cycle? Do you charge them to 100%? How low do you usually discharge them? I ask to try to glimpse into the life expectancy of your batteries. Do you have a life expectancy for them? Maybe a plan to maximize that life expectancy?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1196 on: October 09, 2019, 05:56:53 PM »
Archimid, The powerwalls are set to retain half their capacity in case of a power outage. I can change the amount in storage but so far I am working with what the installer programmed. There is a minimum amount of kWh that are required to be annually cycled through the powerwalls to qualify for the rebate but at around 165 kWh it isn’t a large amount of power.
 The powerwall charges up to 99% most days then discharges at night down to about 65%. If there isn’t a full daylight charge because of clouds the powerwall will drop to 50% and then stop downloading during nighttime use. The grid takes over.
 Here is my use history of use for the last ten days.
227 kWh solar production
148 kWh home use
66.3 kWh powerwall use
From grid 3.3 kWh
To grid 75.9 kWh

The powerwalls come with a warranty. 70% of original power at ten years.
The batteries will charge whenever solar kWh exceeds home use until the batteries are full. The batteries will also supply extra kWh when an appliance like the air conditioner draws more power than the solar array is producing so the powerwalls supply power then charge as the air conditioner cycles.
I imagine this short charge / discharge cycling is not ideal for battery life but it is how the powerwall works during summer daylight hours. If the air conditioner was wired to my 3 phase meter it would relieve most of the short cycle issues and the power I am sending back to the grid ... 75 kWh in ten days would cover it’s energy demands. I would like some advice on this idea if anyone might speculate on how the short cycles affect battery life. Winter will come with different issues than summer .
 

Archimid

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1197 on: October 09, 2019, 06:44:15 PM »
The powerwall charges up to 99% most days then discharges at night down to about 65%. If there isn’t a full daylight charge because of clouds the powerwall will drop to 50% and then stop downloading during nighttime use. The grid takes over.

That’s what I wanted to know. It’s kind of weird that your batteries are programmed for 99% maximum charge daily. For car batteries the best practice is to charge to 80% in a daily basis to get a few extra cycles. In your case that would mean charging to 80% and using down to 45%.  In case of inclement weather or scheduled outage you charge to 99%, just in case. If this applies to powerwalls as it does to batteries you might get a few extra years of batteries.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1198 on: October 09, 2019, 07:35:32 PM »
The powerwall charges up to 99% most days then discharges at night down to about 65%. If there isn’t a full daylight charge because of clouds the powerwall will drop to 50% and then stop downloading during nighttime use. The grid takes over.

That’s what I wanted to know. It’s kind of weird that your batteries are programmed for 99% maximum charge daily. For car batteries the best practice is to charge to 80% in a daily basis to get a few extra cycles. In your case that would mean charging to 80% and using down to 45%.  In case of inclement weather or scheduled outage you charge to 99%, just in case. If this applies to powerwalls as it does to batteries you might get a few extra years of batteries.

Tesla powerwalls have a “Storm Watch” feature that keeps powerwalls as full as possible when outages are likely.  They expanded that for the California fires earlier this year.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1368.msg205031.html#msg205031
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Batteries: Today's Energy Solution
« Reply #1199 on: October 09, 2019, 09:48:02 PM »
Happening today:

Tesla prepares EV owners, Powerwall customers for CA’s historic power outages
October 9, 2019
Quote
As California faces a historic power outage in several Bay Area counties, American electric car maker Tesla appears to have begun making preparations for its customers who are residing in affected areas. Reports from the Tesla community reveal that the company is sending charging reminders to electric car owners, while Powerwall 2 customers are starting to see their home battery units charging up to full power in preparation for the mass outages.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-ev-owners-powerwall-customers-ca-power-outage
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.