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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #200 on: July 24, 2017, 03:55:34 PM »
I figured out a fallacy in my July 14 post.  The relationship between Iceberg A68 and the remaining Larsen C Ice Shelf is not just a transverse fault, although it looks pretty much like one within the red oval.  The purple arrow pairs are collinear and equally gapped.  One set shows the actual relative movement, the other pair doesn't.  (Whereas the red pair of arrows shows actual relative movement.) (PolarView image from July 22.)

PS: the paper linked by this post may explain my July 14 behavior!
...
link
An excellent paper on how students in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences have difficulty in conceptualizing complex systems.
Students’ Understanding of Complex Dynamic Systems
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 04:09:54 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #201 on: July 24, 2017, 07:28:11 PM »
Tor that makes better sense, the tide arrives from the south and given the inertia of this block isn't going to push it north in a hurry, but something has to give so it begins to rotate.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #202 on: July 28, 2017, 08:21:44 AM »
Was just over at Earth Observatory where they used parallel parking as a metaphor.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ (main site because Hudson Bay ice is most recent fwiw)

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90627&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid
A Fracturing Berg in the Polar Night
Quote
“The back-and-forth movement of A-68 looks akin to maneuvering a parallel-parked car out of a tight parking space—like an Austin Powers three-point turn,” said Christopher Shuman, a cryospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center and the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #203 on: July 28, 2017, 07:54:23 PM »
Nothing exceptional (per my eyes) re A68.  Here's a screen shot from yesterday's PolarView image. (click for larger view; use link for looking at details)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #204 on: July 31, 2017, 01:56:42 PM »
A68's northern mini-bergs from the July 30 PolarView image.  (The Polar View Antarctica page gives access to recent images.)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #205 on: August 03, 2017, 02:08:44 AM »
With the cracks still spreading in the remaining Larsen-C Ice Shelf, the world (& satellites) will be watching to see how itself integrity holds-up:

Title: “Cracks are still spreading where that massive Antarctic iceberg broke free”

https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/2/16081998/ice-berg-larsen-c-ice-shelf-collapse-antarctica-climate-change

Extract: “Cracks continue to spread on the Antarctic ice shelf where a trillion-ton iceberg roughly the size of Delaware broke free in July, scientists say.”
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J Cartmill

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« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 08:06:54 PM by J Cartmill »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #207 on: August 06, 2017, 06:30:40 AM »
August 5 PolarView of the northern corner with the several 'little' icebergs with A68.

Also, fast ice, bergy bits and a gap between fast ice and new ice growing on A68 - near the southern end of A68.
« Last Edit: August 06, 2017, 06:36:41 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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Susan Anderson

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #208 on: September 16, 2017, 03:22:32 AM »
Earth Observatory has posted a new picture of iceberg A68:

Daylight Returns to Larsen C
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90968&eocn=home&eoci=nh



Quote
In August 2017, polar night loosened its grip on the Antarctic Peninsula and daylight began to illuminate the region. That means scientists are getting their first sunlit looks at the massive iceberg that broke away from the Larsen C ice shelf in July. This natural-color image was captured on September 11, 2017, by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite.

For about a week before this image was acquired, offshore winds pushed sea ice away from the shelf and out to sea. The remaining thin layer of frazil ice (gray mottled streaks on the dark ocean) does not offer much resistance, letting iceberg A-68A and its companions more easily move about the ocean. Already, scientists have watched the passage widen between A-68A and the front of the ice shelf, and the smaller bits spread out.

NASA Earth Observatory image by Jesse Allen, using data from the Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE). Caption by Kathryn Hansen.

crandles

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #209 on: September 22, 2017, 08:04:41 PM »
Big Antarctic iceberg edges out to sea
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41366504

Quote
But the latest satellite imagery now indicates the near-6,000 sq km block is swinging out into the Weddell Sea.


Susan Anderson

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #210 on: October 05, 2017, 05:29:15 AM »
A couple of days back Earth Observatory had new imagery (dated 16 September), but Crandles' is obviously more recent. That thing is moving fast for something so big.



https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=91052&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #211 on: October 06, 2017, 04:13:06 PM »
Modeling tabular icebergs submerged in the ocean

Key Points: A novel-modeling framework is developed to explicitly model large tabular icebergs submerged in the ocean. Tabular icebergs are represented using Lagrangian elements that drift in the ocean, and are held together by numerical bonds Breaking the numerical bonds allows us to model iceberg breakup and calving.                         

Abstract: Large tabular icebergs calved from Antarctic ice shelves have long lifetimes (due to their large size), during which they drift across large distances, altering ambient ocean circulation, bottom-water formation, sea-ice formation, and biological primary productivity in the icebergs’ vicinity. However, despite their importance, the current generation of ocean circulation models usually do not represent large tabular icebergs. In this study, we develop a novel framework to model large tabular icebergs submerged in the ocean. In this framework, tabular icebergs are represented by pressure-exerting Lagrangian elements that drift in the ocean. The elements are held together and interact with each other via bonds. A breaking of these bonds allows the model to emulate calving events (i.e., detachment of a tabular iceberg from an ice shelf) and tabular icebergs breaking up into smaller pieces. Idealized simulations of a calving tabular iceberg, its drift, and its breakup demonstrate capabilities of the developed framework.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017MS001002/pdf

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #212 on: October 25, 2017, 07:37:06 PM »
The Polar View image of A-68A shows the 'large' iceberg between A-68A and the Larsen C migrating northward (toward the left in the image) [or sucked northward into the low pressure 'void'] as the ice island's southern end pivots further into the Weddell Sea.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #213 on: October 31, 2017, 06:48:33 PM »
The current PolarView  image shows the ice island continuing to move away from the coast (at least at its south end - with North being toward the left in the image) with the 'large' [~10 km] iceberg continuing to be sucked northward.  Of perhaps greater interest is the large area of open water that has opened up to the east (that's 'the top-side' in the image) of A-68A.  Because of the location of the darker and brighter icebergs [each ~4 km long - about 40 km from the left edge of the image] in the previous and current images, it is clear the ice is 'moving out' and not just melting. (Larsen C Ice Shelf is at the 'bottom' of the image.)
« Last Edit: October 31, 2017, 06:59:23 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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oren

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #214 on: November 01, 2017, 12:39:45 AM »
Thanks for the updates Tor.

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #215 on: November 02, 2017, 02:08:51 AM »


Great pictures from Operation Icebridge of A68


# 3) The western edge of iceberg A68 and the new edge of Larsen C Ice Shelf in the distance:


https://www.facebook.com/NasaOperationIcebridge/photos/pcb.1490399277703754/1490382397705442/?type=3&theater



Do we know how high the broken face is ?

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #216 on: November 07, 2017, 06:38:27 PM »
Here's a portion of yesterday's Polar View image.  Is the shelf on the right side considered to be part of Larsen C?  It's rift might have reached the edge of the shelf, if not it's real close.  The new rifts on the main part of Larsen C are also expanding.  Going to be an interesting summer.

http://www.polarview.aq/images/105_S1jpgfull/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20171107T001502_D6E4_S_1.final.jpg
FNORD

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #217 on: November 07, 2017, 09:23:17 PM »
Shared this elsewhere but repeating here in case it's of interest: today's look at Nullschool surface temps show many above freezing in the region. Click on spot (greens seem to be the ones) for local temperature:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-54.33,-82.99,568

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #218 on: November 07, 2017, 09:34:30 PM »
Here's a portion of yesterday's Polar View image.  Is the shelf on the right side considered to be part of Larsen C?  It's rift might have reached the edge of the shelf, if not it's real close.  The new rifts on the main part of Larsen C are also expanding.  Going to be an interesting summer.

http://www.polarview.aq/images/105_S1jpgfull/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20171107T001502_D6E4_S_1.final.jpg

Yes, that is part of Larsen C. Also, that island where the shelf is pinned is one of two key islands that contribute to the overall stability of the shelf. If the shelf were to recede from this island (Gipps Ice Rise) or the one to the north (Bawden Ice Rise), the entire shelf will be at risk.

Here is an article covering concerns that scientists have about these two pinning points.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/06/09/climate/antarctica-rift-update.html

Shared Humanity

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #219 on: November 08, 2017, 03:54:22 PM »
I am fascinated by the dramatic rifting that is visible on Larsen C from the Joerg Peninsula suture zone south. Does this rifting suggest a relatively fragile ice shelf as compared to the northern section of the shelf? If so, the Gipps ice rise may be the Achilles heel of the entire shelf.

Can anyone explain what rifting on a shelf suggests?

Also, the portion of Larsen C that originates from glacier R must be moving slower than the ice on either side, correct?  The rifting/fracturing, on this section of the shelf looks very different. Is this section even more fragile?

We are entering the first melt season since the major calving. Larsen C will be riveting this year. Get your popcorn.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2017, 04:06:04 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #220 on: November 08, 2017, 04:14:12 PM »
Larsen C is seeing temps significantly above 0C.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #221 on: November 08, 2017, 04:30:39 PM »
@SharedHumanity:

Thanks for the terrific visuals on both temps and configuration. Do you know if the "warmth" is abnormal for this time of year?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #222 on: November 08, 2017, 04:36:00 PM »
The entire peninsula is experiencing temperatures much higher than normal.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #223 on: November 08, 2017, 04:54:57 PM »
Thanks again, also for the reminder to use Climate Reanalyzer. Those visuals are mind boggling. It's tempting to go all extreme on potential melt of the WAIS this year, but I'll try to calm down, remembering what happened to Arctic melt hype so far. Scary monsters.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #224 on: November 08, 2017, 05:03:38 PM »
Positive anomalies over the peninsula are expected to weaken but West Antarctica stays warm. Based on expert analysis here provided by others, I don't expect WAIS to contribute significantly to sea levels for many decades.

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #225 on: November 15, 2017, 05:03:20 AM »

solartim27

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #226 on: November 16, 2017, 05:23:20 PM »
FNORD

Shared Humanity

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #227 on: November 17, 2017, 02:00:39 AM »
Wouldn't surprise me if we had more tabular bergs breaking free this melt season.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #228 on: November 20, 2017, 07:58:28 PM »
Interesting look at the thin new ice between A-68A (top) and the Larsen Shelf (bottom).  As the iceberg moves out, the new ice has to decide if it'll be fast ice (remaining attached to the Larsen Shelf) or stay with the iceberg, or go its own way.  I wonder if sea ice is still growing or if it is in retreat in this area.  Image from PolarView 2017-11-18 via the Polarview website.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #229 on: November 21, 2017, 03:27:06 PM »
HYCOM's 30 day Antarctic sea ice thickness gif shows well how the thickest ice collects into the SW corner of the Weddell Sea and is persistently pushed north along the coast until sent into oblivion in an easterly direction by the WSW polar winds.

Perhaps this is why Larsen C seems to be pivoting from the southern end in an anti-clockwise direction with the pivot at the northern end.

Anyway, "that is my theory and it belongs to me" (pace Monty Python).

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johnm33

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #230 on: November 21, 2017, 04:46:28 PM »

gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #231 on: November 22, 2017, 02:07:51 PM »
HYCOM's 30 day Antarctic sea ice thickness gif shows well how the thickest ice collects into the SW corner of the Weddell Sea and is persistently pushed north along the coast until sent into oblivion in an easterly direction by the WSW polar winds.

......Larsen C seems to be pivoting from the southern end in an anti-clockwise direction with the pivot at the northern end.

Anyway, "that is my theory and it belongs to me" (pace Monty Python).

More evidence to support "my theory and it belongs to me".

The first image below is Antarctic Sea Ice drift yesterday in the Weddell Sea (from Jaxa). Note the circular movement pushing sea ice SW into the corner, then North along the coast and finally NE out to sea. This seems to be a pattern often repeated and sometimes much stronger.

The second image is surface winds today in Antarctica. (from cci-reanalyzer). The West to East circumpolar winds are well away from the continent with a low formed over the Weddell Sea between the main polar winds and the shore. this pattern is also oft repeated.

PS:- And I have added HYCOM's 30 days of Antarctic Sea Ice Drift - click to start animation
« Last Edit: November 22, 2017, 03:33:33 PM by gerontocrat »
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Tealight

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #232 on: December 10, 2017, 11:04:48 PM »
Iceberg A-68A has drifted far enough from the ice shelf to begin it's journey north-east (towards the top of the image) and follow the small piece that has broken of earlier. If it keeps up with the speed of the smaller piece it might be gone in just a few years.

gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #233 on: December 18, 2017, 11:25:45 PM »
What a strange website go find an animation of what is happening to 68a

http://uk.businessinsider.com/antarctica-iceberg-a68-calving-animation-satellite-photos-2017-12?r=US&IR=T




"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

sesyf

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #234 on: December 20, 2017, 08:32:04 PM »
Of course we all know how much ice is underwater but for the general piblic it might be instructive to show how much ice there really is...

gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #235 on: December 21, 2017, 01:17:45 PM »
Of course we all know how much ice is underwater but for the general piblic it might be instructive to show how much ice there really is...
A mass of 1 trillion tonnes and an area of 5,800 km2 gives an average thickness of about 170 metres, of which about 20 (?) are above and 150 (?) below the surface.

What the general public would make of that I dunno.
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Mozi

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #236 on: December 21, 2017, 02:24:50 PM »
As a member of the general public, my reaction to that is "that's a lot of ice."

gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #237 on: December 21, 2017, 03:42:39 PM »
If spread out over the ocean in a 1 meter thickness iceberg 68A would cover an area of just under 1 million square kilometres, which is 4 times the area of the UK

Yes, it is a lot of ice, but in the context of the Antarctic Ice Sheet it is but a smidgeon.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #238 on: December 21, 2017, 07:35:29 PM »
What a strange website go find an animation of what is happening to 68a

http://uk.businessinsider.com/antarctica-iceberg-a68-calving-animation-satellite-photos-2017-12

The huge and growing number of people in all walks of life who are aware here in the US are animated by a strong need to overcome the rot at the top. Meanwhile,Business Insider and other outlets are looking for material of interest. Unfortunately, Larsen C break is eye candy for sensationalists, but it still moves people towards paying attention.
--
[edit: OT rant removed with apologies to anyone who saw it here. best to all, susan]

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #239 on: December 21, 2017, 07:45:47 PM »
further to A-68A's ice volume
... or 1/10 of one inch covering all the Earth's oceans!
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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #240 on: December 21, 2017, 08:54:42 PM »
What a strange website go find an animation of what is happening to 68a

http://uk.businessinsider.com/antarctica-iceberg-a68-calving-animation-satellite-photos-2017-12

The huge and growing number of people in all walks of life who are aware here in the US are animated by a strong need to overcome the rot at the top. Meanwhile,Business Insider and other outlets are looking for material of interest. [...]
I hope this isn't just an "east coast elite" impression, but extends to "flyover America"...

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #241 on: December 22, 2017, 12:59:30 AM »
@Martin Gisser: Me too. Our survival depends on it. But I think so, optimistically (from Boston, a home of elitist America). I cannot lose hope. There is no other life.

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #242 on: December 25, 2017, 12:39:05 PM »
A- 68a will collide again with larsen c? Will there be more icebergs?
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201712/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20171225T001500_4E3F_S_1.jpg


gerontocrat

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #243 on: December 25, 2017, 04:13:21 PM »
A- 68a will collide again with larsen c? Will there be more icebergs?
http://www.polarview.aq/images/106_S1jpgsmall/201712/S1A_EW_GRDM_1SSH_20171225T001500_4E3F_S_1.jpg
Weather-forecast.com says all quiet in the weddell sea now and for the days ahead. No wind = no drift (usually tending north at Larsen c location). When winter comes maybe a different story. Sea ice drift can then be something awesome.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #244 on: January 08, 2018, 09:42:25 PM »
Today's Polar View shows how much A-68A has moved since breaking off the Larsen C Shelf in July 2017 (about 35 km, net).  Obviously, it did not move in a straight line!  The 'little' icebergs (one with a purple dot) started out at the southern end of the ice island (link to July 16 post).
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #245 on: January 18, 2018, 04:25:11 PM »
Looks like some open water off of the eastern side of Ice Island A-68A, per yesterday's PolarView.  A different PolarView image from yesterday shows the entire ice island.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #246 on: January 26, 2018, 02:36:58 PM »
Yesterday's PolarView shows some recently broken off icebergs (or else they are holding on by a thread).  These were predicted by the Project MIDAS folks last July.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #247 on: January 30, 2018, 09:32:45 PM »
Is there going to be a collision?  The 'little' iceberg has scooted out of the way (see previous image, above, from 5 days ago).  Exciting times!  The A68-A Ice Island has moved about 200 meters northwards in these 5 days, I reckon. Today's PolarView image
« Last Edit: January 30, 2018, 09:38:28 PM by Tor Bejnar »
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #248 on: February 01, 2018, 06:30:07 PM »
Today's PolarView shows about 500 m separation between the ice island and the shelf.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

FrostKing70

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Re: Rift in Larsen C
« Reply #249 on: February 01, 2018, 07:12:02 PM »
I am curious about the rift below the Gipps Rise (bottom right on the posts which show it).   Does anyone know if that is a "stable/ not growing" rift or is is growing?   If it is growing, would the predicted rift direction remove the Gipps Rise as an anchor point?