The linked article at Climate Central indicates that some scientists think that the IEA's announcement that energy related CO₂ emissions in 2014 were flat compared to 2013, may be more of an exception than a new rule (see extract below). Furthermore, the article indicates that much of this flattening was due to the increased use of natural gas; in which case the IEA should report the CO₂-equivalent emissions for 2014.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/scientists-mixed-on-whether-flat-co2-emissions-are-a-trend-18805Extract: "Steve Cohen, director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University, said the increases in use of fossil fuels in China and India — which show few signs of abating — will push emissions in the opposite direction in 2015, and only the development of affordable renewable energy technology is likely to counter that trend.
Globally, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions stayed at 32.3 billion metric tons of CO2 in both 2013 and 2014, according to the IEA. U.S. energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. have also been relatively flat, growing only an estimated 1 percent between 2013 and 2014, with growth expected to remain below 1 percent over the next two years, U.S. Energy Information Administration analyst Perry Lindstrom said.
The relatively low growth is linked to both the adoption of more fuel-efficient vehicles and the replacement of coal-powered electricity with renewable energy sources and relatively cleaner-burning natural gas. That gives policymakers in the U.S. an opportunity to make a big difference in emissions, he said.
…
Rob Jackson, an earth systems science professor at Stanford University, said it’s difficult to see how flat or declining energy-related emissions can continue globally, even with U.S. energy-related emissions showing little growth.
“Unfortunately, I don’t expect this to last very long,” Jackson said. “Decoupling CO2 emissions from economic growth is ideal. Unfortunately in fast-growing economies such as China and India, we’re not there yet, despite this year’s good news.”
The breakup of the link between CO2 emissions and economic growth in developed countries has been brought about in part by the availability of inexpensive natural gas beginning to replace coal for electric power generation, Harvard University business and government professor Robert N. Stavins said.
….
Globally, stagnant energy-related CO2 emissions could prove to be more an exception to the rule rather than the beginning of a trend, scientists say.
“Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to continue to rise — nobody thinks we have reached maximum emissions and things will soon be turning around,” Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist with the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, Calif., said.
Efforts to reduce GHGs enough to keep them flat are hardly enough to make much of a difference in the climate, he said, adding that developing nations must make significant investments in wind, solar, and nuclear power or emissions are going to rise in the long term.
“Substantial reductions in emissions are possible for both the U.S. and the rest of the world, but it will take herculean efforts and transforming the global energy system into one that does not use the sky as a waste dump,” Caldeira said. “Tiny, but positive policy moves, like increasing automobile efficiency, certainly help, but if we are to get serious about avoiding the risk of dangerous climate change, we need to up our game by somewhere between a factor of 10 and 100 over what we are doing now.”"
