Author Topic: The WAVY Jet Stream (Read 10629 times)

LRC1962 · « **on:** March 20, 2015, 08:00:15 AM »

(If someone has a better acronym try it)
It may be interesting to see the effects of the melting Arctic on the jet stream. What I am dubbing the visualization of the DUSTY (Do You See That Yo-yo) Jet Stream. We now have several sites where we can see the jet stream graphically and clearly displayed, so there are a lot of sources to draw from. We know that the slowing jet stream is wavering terribly in the last few years. We also know the patterns such as the"Ridiculously Resilient Ridges and Terribly Tenacious Troughs" can last from a few days to a few weeks. I also have see a few times where a piece of the JS has broken off and established a circle pattern, sometimes with bad consequences Such as happened to Alberta a couple of years ago in which a weather system got stuck, that one picked up moisture from the Hudson Bay brought it back to the Rockies, It rained, went back far enough east to get more moisture, then back west to the Rockies to rain more. Did this for over a month if my memory serves and caused millions in damages in floods. So although serious I thought it would be fun to collect some of these patterns.
Rules:
1). Must be Jet Stream patterns.
2). Must be graphical in nature.
3). More 'unusual' the better. (Grated the unusual is becoming more the norm now.)
4). Must hold its pattern more or less in the same region of the world for more than 3 days. If really strange we can go with 48 hours.
Note: Major weather patterns such as El Nino has been known to establish very firm northern and southern streams. As has been noted has been known for a piece to break off and establish a circle pattern in one spot, usually for only a day or so, but now has been seen for longer periods. North America, because of its media focus and moneyed population has a higher scrutiny but similar things have happened all over the Northern Hemisphere. As seen in the last few months a Ridiculously Resilient Ridge had sent a large number of cyclones into the Arctic through the area of the Norwegian Sea. Then of course maybe the pattern a complete break in the JS over a significant area.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #1 on:** March 21, 2015, 05:50:24 PM »

WAVY Jet Stream: Wild Amplitude Variations, Yo.
And because "wavy".

Cross-posted from the Weird Weather thread:

Forecast: Spring 2015 in U.S. = ( extreme summer West + extreme winter East ) continued

Quote

BOTTOM LINE: An extreme weather pattern is shaping up across the U.S. that favors for hot weather over the West and cold weather over the Northeast during late March into early April. The hot weather over the West will likely break records and further amplify the severe drought conditions that have been plaguing California over the past year. The cold weather over the Northeast looks to be most amplified around the turn of the month and there is risk for records to be broken.

http://www.wsi.com/blog/uncategorized/extreme-weather-pattern-expected-across-the-u-s-during-late-march-into-early-april-record-heat-in-california-as-winter-returns-across-the-northeast/

LRC1962 · « **Reply #2 on:** March 23, 2015, 04:43:14 PM »

Thanks for suggestion. DUSTY seemed a little dry to me (although California and Australia would declare things far too dry). So Wild Amplitude Variations, Yo does say things better. Then again Southern Hemisphere has the Jet going faster tighter to the pole then normal.. for now. Although there seems to be indications that the SH appears to becoming far more active in wild weather front then it has.

Sigmetnow · « **Reply #3 on:** September 03, 2015, 05:17:40 PM »

Scientists pinpoint Arctic warming hotspots behind severe northern hemisphere winters

Quote

Recent research suggests a warming Arctic could be the cause of a series of very cold winters in the US and Asia. Now, a new study picks out the exact areas in the Arctic circle where unusually high temperatures appear to be driving severe winters in mid-latitude countries.
...
Analysing air temperature records from 1979 to 2014, the researchers found that when conditions over the Barents-Kara Sea region were warmer than usual, East Asia tended to experience a cold winter. This link has also been identified by other scientists.

The new study also finds that higher-than-average temperatures over the East Siberian-Chukchi Sea region were often followed by severe winters in North America.

This has been the situation over eastern parts of the US and Canada for the past two winters, says Prof Jennifer Francis from Rutgers University. Francis wasn't involved in this study, but has been actively involved in research into whether Arctic warming is affecting weather elsewhere.
...
The jet stream is driven by the temperature difference between the Arctic and the mid-latitudes. As the Arctic warms, the temperature difference decreases, weakening the jet stream, Francis explains to Carbon Brief:

"[The researchers] find that bulges in the upper atmosphere - indicative of large northward swings in the jet stream - occur in tandem with the regional Arctic warming."

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/08/arctic-warming-hotspots-behind-severe-northern-hemisphere-winters/

Freegrass · « **Reply #4 on:** January 15, 2020, 05:53:05 AM »

What's up with the jet stream? We've only got 1 in the northern hemisphere with a second one coming in from the southern hemisphere. This is crazy!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/equirectangular=-178.23,0.15,407

Gray-Wolf · « **Reply #5 on:** January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM »

I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Tom_Mazanec · « **Reply #6 on:** January 15, 2020, 01:32:10 PM »

Can computer simulations give us a clue when we will have such a ‘flip’?

Hefaistos · « **Reply #7 on:** January 15, 2020, 04:20:05 PM »

Quote from: Freegrass on January 15, 2020, 05:53:05 AM

What's up with the jet stream? We've only got 1 in the northern hemisphere with a second one coming in from the southern hemisphere. This is crazy!

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/equirectangular=-178.23,0.15,407

Nothing crazy, happens each year.

Hefaistos · « **Reply #8 on:** January 15, 2020, 04:21:50 PM »

Quote from: Gray-Wolf on January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM

I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Won't happen for the whole hemisphere.
If it happens, it will be only over the oceans.

Gray-Wolf · « **Reply #9 on:** January 15, 2020, 05:03:32 PM »

Quote from: Hefaistos on January 15, 2020, 04:21:50 PM

Quote from: Gray-Wolf on January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM
I think it was the year the QBO refused to reverse (2014?) that we saw our Polar Jet cross the equator and end up over S. Africa?

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration (with jet streaks at points around the hemisphere?)?

Won't happen for the whole hemisphere.
If it happens, it will be only over the oceans.

The 'failing' of the Polar jet allows for both Arctic plunges into areas covered by the Sub tropical Jet but also near direct transport of more Tropical air masses North

There has been increasing in such events/impacts since the turn of the century with record snow in areas not accustomed to such and unseasonable warmth over the dark of the polar night in the far north.

Will not the 'washing out' of distinct air mass types lead to a further lessening of the Jets and their speeds at height?

Freegrass · « **Reply #10 on:** January 15, 2020, 10:47:33 PM »

Quote from: Gray-Wolf on January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM

I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration

A single cell configuration would mean no more jet streams? Then what? That would mean a complete disruption of our atmosphere.

Wouldn't we flip to a double cell configuration first?

Tom_Mazanec · « **Reply #11 on:** January 17, 2020, 12:32:57 AM »

Quote from: Freegrass on January 15, 2020, 10:47:33 PM

Quote from: Gray-Wolf on January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM
I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration
A single cell configuration would mean no more jet streams? Then what? That would mean a complete disruption of our atmosphere.

Wouldn't we flip to a double cell configuration first?

I asked that question several months ago. If I understand right even number cell systems are unstable.

Freegrass · « **Reply #12 on:** January 17, 2020, 01:02:14 AM »

Quote from: Tom_Mazanec on January 17, 2020, 12:32:57 AM

Quote from: Freegrass on January 15, 2020, 10:47:33 PM
Quote from: Gray-Wolf on January 15, 2020, 01:28:10 PM
I wonder how long it takes for our hemisphere to flip from a 3 cell configuration to a single cell configuration
A single cell configuration would mean no more jet streams? Then what? That would mean a complete disruption of our atmosphere.

Wouldn't we flip to a double cell configuration first?
I asked that question several months ago. If I understand right even number cell systems are unstable.

That's what I was wondering as well; Is it possible to have a 2 cell system? And which cell would vanish? But figuring out air movements in the atmosphere is gonna take me too much time to learn, so I'll leave that up to the specialists...

Sam · « **Reply #13 on:** January 17, 2020, 01:40:03 AM »

Only odd numbers of cells can be fully stable. Any even count of cells would require air to rise over the coldest part of the arctic and sink over warmer regions. That is not stable. In a system with an odd number of cells, the driving force of the odd numbered cells powers the even cells between them.

As we have watched the atmosphere slow and destabilize with the loss of the arctic ice, we have also seen a new dynamic form with what looks like a multi-lobed cell over the pole. Is that real? or stable?

It is fascinating to watch, though also somewhat morbid.

Exactly what happens to the atmosphere and how it changes from a three cell system to the equable climate system is as yet unknown. Also still uncertain is exactly what that looks like. Is it a true one cell system (equatorial to polar)? Or is it something different?

The coriolis forces divert the poleward flows radially creating a torque in the atmosphere that under current conditions also prevent a single cell from forming. With a deeper atmosphere, different flow conditions and drag forces that perhaps changes.

Perhaps that looks like a slowly rotating vortex over the pole that is a mostly vertically stagnant part of the down flow single cell system. Perhaps it is something else. I haven't found any research that offers a solution - other than looking to Venus as an example. Have any of you seen any papers on the subject that offer likely solutions?

Sam

Florifulgurator · « **Reply #14 on:** January 17, 2020, 02:01:24 AM »

Like with many complex systems, I guess there will be a chaotic transition first. True chaos for many decades with some very interesting weather.

Quote

It is fascinating to watch, though also somewhat morbid.

Morbid curiosity is perhaps the healthiest stance on all that.

Freegrass · « **Reply #15 on:** January 17, 2020, 04:59:19 AM »

Quote from: Sam on January 17, 2020, 01:40:03 AM

Only odd numbers of cells can be fully stable. Any even count of cells would require air to rise over the coldest part of the arctic and sink over warmer regions. That is not stable. In a system with an odd number of cells, the driving force of the odd numbered cells powers the even cells between them.

As we have watched the atmosphere slow and destabilize with the loss of the arctic ice, we have also seen a new dynamic form with what looks like a multi-lobed cell over the pole. Is that real? or stable?

It is fascinating to watch, though also somewhat morbid.

Exactly what happens to the atmosphere and how it changes from a three cell system to the equable climate system is as yet unknown. Also still uncertain is exactly what that looks like. Is it a true one cell system (equatorial to polar)? Or is it something different?

The coriolis forces divert the poleward flows radially creating a torque in the atmosphere that under current conditions also prevent a single cell from forming. With a deeper atmosphere, different flow conditions and drag forces that perhaps changes.

Perhaps that looks like a slowly rotating vortex over the pole that is a mostly vertically stagnant part of the down flow single cell system. Perhaps it is something else. I haven't found any research that offers a solution - other than looking to Venus as an example. Have any of you seen any papers on the subject that offer likely solutions?

Sam

That was perfectly understandable for a hobby scientist like me and made absolute sense. Thanks for that!

I don't think we have to wait to see what'll happen to an unstable atmosphere. I think we're already seeing it right now...

Tom_Mazanec · « **Reply #16 on:** January 17, 2020, 09:23:13 AM »

Quote

Like with many complex systems, I guess there will be a chaotic transition first. True chaos for many decades with some very interesting weather.

Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

Florifulgurator · « **Reply #17 on:** January 17, 2020, 03:24:44 PM »

Quote from: Tom_Mazanec on January 17, 2020, 09:23:13 AM

Chinese curse: May you live in interesting times.

I dont see it as a curse, but a privilege. We are privileged to watch the most interesting and decisive moment in the history of primates - if not the entire history of evolution: What is called for now is cultural evolution, since biological evolution would have reached a dead end if we don't change our attitude towards planet Earth. Are we the death of evolution? Likely within my lifetime (ca. 2050) I will see if we are up to the task.

Freegrass · « **Reply #18 on:** March 25, 2020, 01:38:11 PM »

Is this what the future of the jet stream looks like? A bunch of giant circulating storms ravaging the planet?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/30/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-8.00,57.15,873

blumenkraft · « **Reply #19 on:** March 25, 2020, 01:39:49 PM »

This is crazy!

harpy · « **Reply #20 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:10:04 PM »

It's just storm after storm after storm.

We get a sunny day here and there.

I remember what the sun was like, it was bright, things grew.

Zinc_wit · « **Reply #21 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:33:00 PM »

Quote from: Freegrass on March 25, 2020, 01:38:11 PM

Is this what the future of the jet stream looks like? A bunch of giant circulating storms ravaging the planet?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/30/0600Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-8.00,57.15,873

excuse me for the stupid question but what exactly is going on here?
I know very little of these things, I should probably take a quick course on all of this haha.

kassy · « **Reply #22 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:35:54 PM »

I was wondering too....it´s not like i have a memory of the jet stream because these sites are rather recent while you watch the ice for decades.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #23 on:** March 25, 2020, 04:55:22 PM »

Well, the jetstream is supposed to be kind of a circle, circling counterclockwise around the arctic. By doing that, it keeps cold arctic air in the arctic, and warmer air out.

What we see here are small clockwise circles all over, blowing cold air out of the arctic, warm air is pushed in.

Good videos on the topic:

kassy · « **Reply #24 on:** March 25, 2020, 06:27:51 PM »

Yeah but i do think the circle idea is too simplistic. It would be cool if we could jump back 10 or 20 years and look at a normal old school jet stream but we don´t have that data.

I like to rotate the planet. There is a different set up in the SH. Then there are all these teleconnections. It´s great that we can see all this but it´s hard to parse.

harpy · « **Reply #25 on:** March 25, 2020, 06:30:34 PM »

I call BS that we don't have any images, we have jetstream images from 20 years ago.

Could someone with knowledge please post an image 10-20 years ago?

We could easily compare to today's images. We probably have jet stream images going back 30 years.

Or am I wrong and we are a poorly advanced civilization that has no data prior to 2010?

kassy · « **Reply #26 on:** March 25, 2020, 06:35:46 PM »

We did make huge progress in satellites.

What satellites are input for this?

Freegrass · « **Reply #27 on:** March 26, 2020, 02:29:53 PM »

Has anyone ever seen a gigantic high pressure "storm" like this before? I say storm because look at those strong winds. How unusual is that? It's connected to the jetstream "storm" I talked about before.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/31/0300Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-21.54,50.73,1323/loc=-19.221,54.888

blumenkraft · « **Reply #28 on:** March 26, 2020, 02:41:18 PM »

Freegrass, it's still far out.

As pointed out somewhere else on the forum earlier, we have fewer weather data at the moment due to less air traffic. Perhaps it's just a function of less reliable models? IDK.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #29 on:** March 26, 2020, 02:56:28 PM »

That said, netweather.tv sees it too.

Freegrass · « **Reply #30 on:** March 26, 2020, 09:24:17 PM »

I don't think this is a data anomaly. Surely this is backed up by modern satellites?

Do you agree that this is a very unusual weather phenomenon if it really happens? I've never seen anything like it...

Edit: Maybe less air traffic is indeed the cause, but then because the sun can beat down on our gorgeous planet now unabated by dirt or man made clouds...

blumenkraft · « **Reply #31 on:** March 27, 2020, 09:24:37 AM »

I think the new run has it further south?

IDK if it's unprecedented, but this whole jetstream situation ATM sure looks weird!

harpy · « **Reply #32 on:** March 27, 2020, 03:03:22 PM »

AGAIN:

Does anyone here have an image of the Jet stream prior to 2010?

Anyone, anywhere?

blumenkraft · « **Reply #33 on:** March 27, 2020, 03:23:05 PM »

Back to 2014 >> https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/jetstream_archive.asp#

I can't give you any more, sorry.

Gray-Wolf · « **Reply #34 on:** March 27, 2020, 03:32:57 PM »

Quote from: harpy on March 27, 2020, 03:03:22 PM

AGAIN:

Does anyone here have an image of the Jet stream prior to 2010?

Anyone, anywhere?

I'd try Jen Francis?

She's been looking at data going back beyond the turn of the century to track the impacts of low ice/warmed Arctic Ocean on the polar Jet?

I'm sure if you read her earlier papers she'll link to the sites She used?

Freegrass · « **Reply #35 on:** March 28, 2020, 12:26:56 AM »

That jet stream vortex is still there, all the way down to the surface...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=344.60,67.79,662

harpy · « **Reply #36 on:** March 30, 2020, 02:09:35 AM »

The Northern polar Jet stream... in 2020.

Freegrass · « **Reply #37 on:** March 30, 2020, 02:55:01 AM »

Quote from: harpy on March 30, 2020, 02:09:35 AM

The Northern polar Jet stream... in 2020.

That is an awesome find!

We already had locust, floods, fire, disease, and now a scull... Makes you wonder what's next...

be cause · « **Reply #38 on:** March 30, 2020, 08:56:53 AM »

glad the skull has been shared .. I noticed Wrangle and Ireland are in the eye sockets .. so very much centred on the pole .
https://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2020032918/gfsnh-4-6.png?18 is even more skull-like . b.c.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #39 on:** March 31, 2020, 08:07:44 PM »

Jetstream at 180˚ over the equator. At 90˚east, it's also way too far south.

We keep having small circles spinning over the Pacific and Northern America.

Over the Arctic, it behaves as if there was no Arctic anymore.

At least the eastward one over Europe and the one over Africa are about to dissolve.

blumenkraft · « **Reply #40 on:** May 10, 2020, 06:25:10 PM »

Clockwise jetstream over the Arctic.

Click to play.

Niall Dollard · « **Reply #41 on:** May 12, 2021, 08:22:21 PM »

There seems to be a new study each week now - linking or refuting the link between global warming and increased waviness in the jet stream.

Here's one study in the linking camp. (Although it seems to be the ones dissing the link that are getting all the attention, at the moment).

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2020JD033668

vox_mundi · « **Reply #42 on:** September 14, 2021, 12:08:51 AM »

Jet Stream Changes Could Amplify Weather Extremes By 2060s
https://phys.org/news/2021-09-jet-stream-amplify-weather-extremes.html

New research provides insights into how the position and intensity of the North Atlantic jet stream has changed during the past 1,250 years. The findings suggest that the position of the jet stream could migrate outside of the range of natural variability by as early as the year 2060 under unabated greenhouse gas emissions, with potentially drastic weather-related consequences for societies on both sides of the Atlantic.

Osman's research team collected glacial ice core samples from nearly 50 sites spanning the Greenland ice sheet to reconstruct changes in windiness across the North Atlantic dating back to the eighth century. The reconstructions suggest that natural variability has thus far masked the effect of human-caused warming on mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics across annual and longer timescales.

... The work reveals that although natural variability has largely controlled the position of the North Atlantic jet stream, continued warming could cause significant deviations from the norm. In particular, model projections forecast a northward migration of the North Atlantic jet stream under 21st-century warming scenarios. Such migration could render the jet stream significantly different within a matter of decades.

Weather events like this summer's heat wave in the Pacific Northwest and the floods in Europe are some recent examples of how the jet stream affects weather patterns based on its intensity or location in the short term, Osman said. But societally significant changes also occur across longer time scales; reconstructing the jet stream's past revealed that in some years, it could be far north, only to venture more than 10 degrees farther south a few years later.

The team was able to match certain changes in wind speed and geographical shifts to historical weather-related calamities. For example, during a famine that gripped the Iberian Peninsula in 1374, the jet stream was situated unusually far north. Similarly, two famine events in the British Isles and Ireland in 1728 and 1740 coincided with years that winds blew at nearly half their usual intensity, dramatically cooling temperatures and reducing precipitation. The latter of these events, in 1740, is estimated to have cost the lives of nearly half a million people.

Osman and his co-authors expect that any future shifts in the North Atlantic jet stream would also have dramatic implications on day-to-day weather and ecosystems, with trickle-down effects impacting national economies and societies.

North Atlantic jet stream projections in the context of the past 1,250 years, PNAS (2021).
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/38/e2104105118

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Author Topic: The WAVY Jet Stream (Read 10629 times)

Tom_Mazanec

Hefaistos

Hefaistos

Tom_Mazanec

Sam

Tom_Mazanec

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft

blumenkraft