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Author Topic: 2019 sea ice area and extent data  (Read 123913 times)

b_lumenkraft

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #600 on: April 19, 2019, 06:33:31 AM »
Thanks for taking it wdmn! :)

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #601 on: April 19, 2019, 06:38:23 AM »
A scanty substitute, but nourishment nevertheless.  ;)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #602 on: April 19, 2019, 08:58:16 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,693,470 km2(April 18, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 20 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 63k, 24 k more than the average loss of 39 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,578k, 721 k (84%) greater than the average of 857k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 8.7% of the melting season done, with 148 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.67 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.49 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.271 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 20 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 8 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest at least until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #603 on: April 19, 2019, 09:17:03 AM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #604 on: April 19, 2019, 03:30:43 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,900,731 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,900,731    km2      
-592,983    km2   <   2010's average.
-346,278    k   <   2018
-754,510    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -45    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -21    k   loss
Central Seas__   -2    k   loss
Other Seas___   -22    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    7    k   gain
Greenland____   -15    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss

Area loss 45 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 27 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 21 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +1.5 and  +0 over the next week to 10 days. For a few days more a strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly is in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 3 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?

ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wdmn

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #605 on: April 20, 2019, 05:43:46 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2019:
     12,652,423 km2, a drop of -41,047 km2.
     2019 is the lowest on record.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #606 on: April 20, 2019, 06:26:59 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :- 12,652,423 km2(April 19, 2019)

- Extent lowest in the satellite record for 21 days in a row.
- Extent loss on this day 41k, 11 k more than the average loss of 30 k on this day.
- Extent loss from maximum 1,619k, 732 k (83%) greater than the average of 887k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 9.0% of the melting season done, with 147 days to average date of minimum (13 September)

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 3.66 million km2, 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2. Incidentally, 2012 extent on this day was 1.336 million km2 GREATER THAN 2019. The current position does not necessarily reflect the final result.

For the last 21 days ice extent has written on a previously unused part of the graph paper. This will continue for 5 days longer as long as extent loss is above zero. Modest declines would keep 2019 at lowest until the end of the month.

On 22nd April, 2016 started its 2 months as the front runner with steep declines in extent.  To remain lowest, 2019 will also have to maintain above average extent losses in May and June.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average, while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline to continue?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #607 on: April 20, 2019, 12:46:15 PM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #608 on: April 20, 2019, 01:28:35 PM »
Here comes into view the incredible 2016 early cliff, dropping 2.5M km2 over the span of 6 weeks (Apr 18th - May 30th) despite its low starting point. I really hope 2019 doesn't repeat that performance.

What causes such cliffs? Is it warm air masses, or something else? Could we see such a cliff coming in advance?
In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.

Shared Humanity

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #609 on: April 20, 2019, 01:59:06 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #610 on: April 20, 2019, 02:33:46 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 April 2019 (5 day trailing average)  11,853,501 km2
               
Total Area         
 11,853,501    km2      
-1,126,424    km2   <   2010's average.
-606,676    k   <   2018
-1,486,553    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas__   -11    k   loss
Other Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____    11    k   gain
Greenland____   -14    k   loss
Barents ______   -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Area loss 47 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 31 k on this day.
Total area lowest for 22 days in a row.

Other Stuff
GFS indicates that overall the Arctic temperature anomaly will  range from around +2.5 and  +0.5 over the next week to 10 days. At various times will be strong, but not extreme, +ve anomaly in the Atlantic Front. This is already apparent in strong area loss in the Barents and Greenland Seas in the last 4 days.

Elsewhere during this time the  temperatures over the Okhotsk Sea look to be above average (as is area loss), while parts of the West and South of Hudson Bay will be above zero degrees Celsius for part of the time. Steady but not spectacular sea ice decline?
________________________________________________________________
ps: I have added 2016 to the Total Arctic Area graph as that is the year to watch for the next two months.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #611 on: April 20, 2019, 03:05:43 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?
I agree with that, the Arctic proper is well confined and takes a time for the perimeter of ice to start shrinking after most of outer seas have already melted out, or in their way.

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #612 on: April 20, 2019, 03:06:59 PM »
2016 early opening was an outlier

magnamentis

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #613 on: April 20, 2019, 06:34:32 PM »
Curious as to what causes the gentle slope upward in May for average extent losses. Is this because the peripheral seas have melted out and it takes a while for the central arctic ice to kick in?

most probably exactly what you assume, at least i think so too ;)
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Niall Dollard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #614 on: Today at 12:12:44 AM »

In 2016 the open water due to wind drift in Beaufort reached a unprecedented extent during May. And iirc Barents melted  soon that year.

+ Look at the NH snow cover extent anomalies from February to June 2016. Low albedo.