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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #250 on: October 17, 2019, 08:39:43 AM »
September 26 - October 16 (fast).

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #251 on: October 17, 2019, 09:38:21 AM »
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

binntho

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #252 on: October 17, 2019, 09:56:04 AM »
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
The shore begets ice as well.
because a thing is eloquently expressed it should not be taken to be as necessarily true
St. Augustine, Confessions V, 6

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #253 on: October 17, 2019, 10:23:43 AM »
Indeed. In Aluminium's awesome animation that is evident.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #254 on: October 17, 2019, 01:34:51 PM »
Someone theorized a couple years ago that when we lose all the summer ice, autumn ice growth will start from the edges. it seems reasonable to me now, although first ice will probably start to "grow" at the CAA/North Greenland and spread from there during the winter seasons of the future...

grixm

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #255 on: October 17, 2019, 03:57:34 PM »
We are now at all-time low NSIDC 5-day average extent for the date:



Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #256 on: October 17, 2019, 07:30:01 PM »
A precarious combination.
Lowest extent for this time of year + lowest volume.
Extent - NSIDC
Volume - DMI
« Last Edit: October 17, 2019, 11:19:26 PM by Thomas Barlow »

RoxTheGeologist

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #257 on: October 18, 2019, 12:06:59 AM »
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times

The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.

El Cid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #258 on: October 18, 2019, 07:34:52 AM »

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.


The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.

I am no expert, but also think that at this time of the year what matters is SSTs and most everything else derives from that. Also, cloudiness plays an important part but that is mostly driven by ocean temp differences (with the surrounding land and the upper atmosphere).

High SSTs keep the air warm and clouds keep the warmth in the system, slowing refreeze very much and keeping SSTs still high, and you go back to the beginning of the sentence.

Jontenoy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #259 on: October 18, 2019, 10:08:50 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?

Pavel

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #260 on: October 18, 2019, 11:35:49 AM »
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
The ice could be more thin than usuall. But the freezing season is long enough to make up to 2m-thickness FYI. Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #261 on: October 18, 2019, 11:49:36 AM »
Quote
Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017...

Snow has both saved us and failed us before.  I would prefer not to reach a new record minimum maximum and run the risk of a record melt season. There might not be a way back from that.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #262 on: October 18, 2019, 01:12:29 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233434.html#msg233434

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/13 to 10/18, Forecast: 10/18 to 10/21.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

RikW

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #263 on: October 18, 2019, 01:28:03 PM »
Finally a century increase, first of this melting season;

In the last 30 years (1990-2019) only in 1996 the first century increase was later, november 26th, but 1996 also had the highest minimum in the last 3 decades.

Another maybe interesting fact, since minimum the gain was 1.271.299; When we check other years, the gain from minimum was till october 17th was on average 2.1M. (90's: 2.18, 00's 2.09, 10's 2.07). That it is the lowest gain from minimum till october 17th in the last 30 years; 2018 2nd in that ranking, 2007 3rd;



colchonero

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #264 on: October 18, 2019, 02:05:36 PM »
If Jaxa is correct, the most substantial gain today (yesterday) was on the Russian side. Coastal ice is expanding in all 3 seas (Kara, Laptev, ESS). The main pack looks to be just miles away from the Russian coast, at the Kara-Laptev border behind SZ, and there looks to be some ice in the middle of the ocean in ESS. I don't if it will become some kind of ESS arm or will it disappear on radar. I just know I wouldn't rely much on gfs temp anomalies on climatereanalyzer because the model can't include the ice that will probably form in the next days. This is a 10 days out anomaly forecast and you can clearly see an almost perfect ice pack border shape from today, surrounded by red color.



And  if you take the slideshow, red "origin" doesn't move at all, it just expands towards the pole (which is probably real like a normal "heat" wave) and then "destroys" shape of the pack.  I mean anomaly itself is probably correct, it's just the progression (or the lack of) of it that is questionable, since model can't calculate new ice that is forming.

be cause

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #265 on: October 18, 2019, 06:37:28 PM »
look back a year and the temp anomaly outlook was very similar . However 10 days later the reality was a much colder Arctic . The refreeze had accelerated to @ 170k sqkm per day .. a rate that was maintained for @ 3 weeks and earlier long-range forecasts were proved meaningless . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #266 on: October 19, 2019, 07:23:13 AM »
A GIF showing the freezing of the fjords northwest Greenland, taken from DMI Lincon crop.

The freezing starts around the 17th of September here.

From 06.08, many many frames, big file, click to play.

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oren

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #267 on: October 19, 2019, 09:08:44 AM »
Great animation, thank you b_l.

blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #268 on: October 19, 2019, 11:35:01 AM »
Welcome, Oren! Glad you like it. :)
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aslan

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #269 on: October 19, 2019, 12:17:23 PM »
Even for the Arctic Ocean, we will be hard press to end the winter with at least a 2m first year ice, putting the risk of a memory of this summer. The islands on the russian side are nearing or breaking record which are only a few years old, like Ostrov Vrangel :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2016

Or Ostrov Kotelnyj :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2019

versus 2018

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2018

Or Ostrov Vize :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2016

And again, a layer of low level clouds is keeping in check the refreze, as shown for example with Ostrov Vrangel between 300 and 600 meters since the end of the Summer :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2019&mes=10&day=19&hora=06

And SSTs are still extrememly warm, locally up to 7 or 8 (!) °C. And with the clouds in place, cooling is going to be slow. It is a sure bet that southern Chukchi would not freeze before December or January, and it is increasingly likely that this sea could not fully refreeze before the end of the winter.
For now, the downward IR flux at surface is a bit less averaged over Arctic comapred to record holder 2018 and 2016, meaning a bit more heat is escaping the furnace of the Arctic. But we are starting with an ocean wich is way warmer than in 2016 or 2018 and to cool down this thing this small diff is not enough...

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #270 on: October 19, 2019, 01:44:19 PM »
Hullo aslan,

Really great to get real data from the Russian sites. I don't get to see it very often and the Russian Arctic shore is awfully long. Keep 'em going every so often, please.

The Chukchi & ESS Sea Ice graphs are writing lines on the unused part of the graph paper big-time.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2019, 01:57:07 PM by gerontocrat »
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #271 on: October 19, 2019, 03:52:42 PM »
Arctic Basin at lowest extent for this time of year.
https://tinyurl.com/yyhw8bs4

Tor Bejnar

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #272 on: October 19, 2019, 05:02:15 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2 ...

Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
...
In general, as climate change has caused, decade by decade, sea ice loss in the Arctic, I would expect the end of a decade to have less than the decade's average.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #273 on: October 19, 2019, 06:11:34 PM »
Not by 752k if you think of the 2010's average as 5 years before today and a trend of around 80k per year.
Anyway the point of the post was to contrast the Central Arctic Sea with the other seas.

The mosaic project is happening when the Central Arctic Sea is not behaving in line with recent years.

And in considerable contrast with its neighbours - chukchi ess especially
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blumenkraft

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #274 on: October 19, 2019, 08:11:18 PM »
Not really on-topic but surely of interest for anyone following this thread:

Omega Tau Podcast - Weather forecasting at the ECMWF

Quote
Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose, and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the "running" model.

Direct link >> http://omegataupodcast.net/326-weather-forecasting-at-the-ecmwf/

Audio link >> https://overcast.fm/+T6jAOOlk
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Aluminium

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #275 on: October 20, 2019, 08:23:11 AM »
October 12-19.

2018.

Aleph_Null

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #276 on: October 21, 2019, 12:42:05 PM »
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233673.html#msg233673

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/16 to 10/21, Forecast: 10/21 to 10/24.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]

Archimid

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #277 on: October 21, 2019, 02:06:18 PM »
October 12-19.

There seems to be some spontaneous growth in the ESS. Isn't that area where uniquorn is searching for shoals?
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kassy

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Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
« Reply #278 on: October 21, 2019, 02:15:23 PM »
About time.  ;)

And yes that is the area were most of the examples were from because it is rather shallow.
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