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Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1100 on: February 03, 2019, 10:16:05 AM »
January 21 - February 2.

gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1101 on: February 03, 2019, 11:45:22 AM »
The attached image is from Japan's Net Office (Climate System Monitoring)
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/

You can see the SSW in late December / early January.

Is there any significance when the stratosphere suddenly cools?
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oren

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1102 on: February 03, 2019, 02:14:25 PM »
January 21 - February 2.
The Atlantic strikes again, which is how it went from 10th to 4th.

Neven

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1103 on: February 03, 2019, 02:21:59 PM »
More data, SAT for January. Second lowest Arctic-wide for the last 15 years, all sectors down compared to last three years:

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Davidsf

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1104 on: February 03, 2019, 09:25:51 PM »
The difference between 2016 and 2019 air temps is quite striking, but interesting how other factors are weighing in heavily since extent seems to be lagging. Ocean salinity (and temps?) perhaps, as Oren mentions above. Or more likely I'm greatly oversimplifying it.

kassy

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1105 on: February 03, 2019, 09:31:58 PM »
The last colder year is 2008. 2016 is the anomalous one so this could just be a regression to the mean.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1106 on: February 05, 2019, 09:32:25 PM »
With low pressure dominant in the western Arctic basin, ESRL is showing an anticlockwise circulation around the Beaufort Gyre over the coming few days.

Phil42

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1107 on: February 06, 2019, 11:35:28 AM »
I think the Pacific sector may see some further decline / slow gain in the coming week.

There is a hurricane-force cyclone off the coast of the Kamchatka Peninsula (https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/1092868696102494208). According to ECMWF it will maintain a lot of its power through the weekend and wander further north-east towards the Bering straight. There's a good possibility that this cyclone with the resulting waves up to 10m bring some disruption to sea ice in the Bering and Okhotsk Sea (attachment 1 is the forecast for Saturday).

Also temperature anomalies are being forcasted to stay a lot above normal over Bering, Chuckhi and Beaufort area in the coming week (attachment 2).

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1108 on: February 06, 2019, 02:26:22 PM »
amsr2-uhh, atlantic front, jan11-feb5.
Polarview, between Svalbard and FJL, feb5
No predictions  ;) edit: Well, perhaps a smaller contribution from Kara to the CAB as the year goes on. That possible up or downwelling north of Svalbard is starting to look very persistent.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2019, 04:58:56 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1109 on: February 06, 2019, 04:54:07 PM »
Revenge of the SSW or just 'quite similar to last year'?
amsr2-uhh, Pacific, jan11-feb5

jdallen

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1110 on: February 07, 2019, 02:10:51 AM »
Revenge of the SSW or just 'quite similar to last year'?
amsr2-uhh, Pacific, jan11-feb5
More than passing resemblance to last year.

Phil42 earlier reported a major storm with hurricane force winds and 10M waves off the Kamchatka peninsula.  That is going to drag heat north in a major way and disrupt the existing ice.

With sunlight returning and the equinox just under 6 weeks away the balance of heat exchange is already starting to slip back in favor of open water.  We may not see a lot more Bering Sea ice formation except near the coast lines, or via export from the Chukchi.
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gerontocrat

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1111 on: February 07, 2019, 09:04:46 AM »
Revenge of the SSW or just 'quite similar to last year'?
amsr2-uhh, Pacific, jan11-feb5
More than passing resemblance to last year.

Phil42 earlier reported a major storm with hurricane force winds and 10M waves off the Kamchatka peninsula.  That is going to drag heat north in a major way and disrupt the existing ice.

With sunlight returning and the equinox just under 6 weeks away the balance of heat exchange is already starting to slip back in favor of open water.  We may not see a lot more Bering Sea ice formation except near the coast lines, or via export from the Chukchi.
Last year the Okhotsk and Sea of Japan were really cold -Siberian high pressure. This seemed to encourage warm and windy weather coming up the North Pacific to hit the Bering Sea. The Okhotsk froze, the Bering did not.

This year behaved very differently until the last week of January. But since then a similar weather pattern seems to have taken hold.
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Thomas Barlow

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1112 on: February 09, 2019, 01:55:39 AM »
Warm in Bering.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1113 on: February 10, 2019, 10:05:30 AM »
A comparison of Bering sea ice from 2015-2019, jan1-feb8 using ImageJ edge detect on amsr2-uhh. Some lower concentration data has been removed to clean up the animation so this should only be seen as a guide.
« Last Edit: February 10, 2019, 12:05:05 PM by uniquorn »

Paladiea

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1114 on: February 10, 2019, 10:24:00 AM »
Pictured: Beaufort Gyre on the same day (Feb 9th) 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2012, and 2010. Ran the pics through a sharpening algorithm to make cracks under the clouds more visible.
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Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1115 on: February 11, 2019, 08:38:35 PM »
The Nenana Ice Classic reported some extraordinary low figures for the ice thickness on the Tanana river. Somehow they are showing no increase since January reading (Only 16 inches)

Surely there is some mistake with this.

Rick Thoman seems to think so. He has tweeted that the NWS also take readings on the Tanana and their thickness figure recently was more like 28 inches. 

« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 08:44:23 PM by Niall Dollard »

Aluminium

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1116 on: February 13, 2019, 07:15:15 AM »
January 31 - February 12.

Ken Feldman

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1117 on: February 13, 2019, 08:09:23 PM »
The Nenana Ice Classic reported some extraordinary low figures for the ice thickness on the Tanana river. Somehow they are showing no increase since January reading (Only 16 inches)

Surely there is some mistake with this.

Rick Thoman seems to think so. He has tweeted that the NWS also take readings on the Tanana and their thickness figure recently was more like 28 inches.

It may not be an error.  Temperatures have been way above normal in Alaska this winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/13/strange-days-winter-temperatures-have-been-way-above-normal-northernmost-part-united-states/?utm_term=.021e09db9bdb

Quote
Part of an alarming trend in recent years, temperatures have been scarily above normal this month at the northernmost point of the United States.

Through the first 12 days of February, Utqiaġvik (previously known as Barrow) is running 21 degrees warmer than normal. On Friday, readings soared as high as 30 to 50 degrees above normal for the date across Alaska’s North Slope, a region north of the Arctic Circle.

The combination of warmer-than-normal conditions and significant storminess was enough to create open water in parts of the region. This kind of weather is an extreme rarity in the middle of winter.

Temperatures even ticked above freezing in Utqiaġvik, which is something that has only happened in winter a handful of times since the early 1900s. The 33-degree high on Feb. 8 is one of the top 10 warmest readings so early in the year, and the third-warmest for this point in February.

Edit: Since this is a US news source, I assume the temperatures are being reported in Farenheit, not Celsius.

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1118 on: February 16, 2019, 12:54:03 PM »
Warmer air over the beaufort, feb15.
Worldview terra/modis and viirs,bt15day.  https://go.nasa.gov/2SWeUe9

edit: blue ~-40C, red ~-20C, yellow ~-6C on the brightness temperature image (warmer but not warm)
« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 04:02:06 PM by uniquorn »

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1119 on: February 17, 2019, 03:39:13 PM »
Following on from the previous post, here is ascat, jan1-feb16. Having seen all the ITP buoys in the beaufort move north recently, several surges towards the atlantic side are visible this year in the animation below. Thicker Beaufort ice has been pushed away from the coast in this way since 2015. This would appear to be significantly further.
Please see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg188990.html#msg188990 for a historical comparison from 2010-2018.

Niall Dollard

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1120 on: February 17, 2019, 09:21:25 PM »
The Nenana Ice Classic reported some extraordinary low figures for the ice thickness on the Tanana river. Somehow they are showing no increase since January reading (Only 16 inches)

Surely there is some mistake with this.

Rick Thoman seems to think so. He has tweeted that the NWS also take readings on the Tanana and their thickness figure recently was more like 28 inches.

It may not be an error.  Temperatures have been way above normal in Alaska this winter:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/13/strange-days-winter-temperatures-have-been-way-above-normal-northernmost-part-united-states/?utm_term=.021e09db9bdb

Quote
Part of an alarming trend in recent years, temperatures have been scarily above normal this month at the northernmost point of the United States.

Through the first 12 days of February, Utqiaġvik (previously known as Barrow) is running 21 degrees warmer than normal. On Friday, readings soared as high as 30 to 50 degrees above normal for the date across Alaska’s North Slope, a region north of the Arctic Circle.

The combination of warmer-than-normal conditions and significant storminess was enough to create open water in parts of the region. This kind of weather is an extreme rarity in the middle of winter.

Temperatures even ticked above freezing in Utqiaġvik, which is something that has only happened in winter a handful of times since the early 1900s. The 33-degree high on Feb. 8 is one of the top 10 warmest readings so early in the year, and the third-warmest for this point in February.

Edit: Since this is a US news source, I assume the temperatures are being reported in Farenheit, not Celsius.

I can see Rick Thoman's point though. Whatever about differences from normal, there had been sufficient amount of cold to thicken the ice during the period between the two ice measurements. But yet they are reporting not one inch thicker and this despite 9 days when it was below -27 C. (See temperatures from nearby Fairbanks Airport).

There was a short time when temps actually maxed slightly above zero - but hardly enough to melt ice. I wonder are the ice thickness measurements made at just one spot or an average ?

The only other thing I can think of (other than it being just a plain reading error) is maybe there were some anthropogenic discharges into the Tanana river upstream at Fairbanks which thinned the ice ?

uniquorn

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Re: The 2018/2019 freezing season
« Reply #1121 on: Today at 01:01:39 PM »
The only other thing I can think of (other than it being just a plain reading error) is maybe there were some anthropogenic discharges into the Tanana river upstream at Fairbanks which thinned the ice ?
Wild guess - permafrost depth, warmer river water?

Update on the big chunk in the Nares, now 2chunks, possibly more, jan15-feb18. The animation does cast some doubt on 3m ice in the Lincoln Sea. https://go.nasa.gov/2T2tII4