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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)  (Read 1166042 times)

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3250 on: May 06, 2020, 01:30:41 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 1 May 2020**   22,522 km3

And a look at sea ice volume, thickness & area, contrasting the seven seas of the High Arctic with the seven Peripheral Seas.
High Arctic
In April High Arctic sea ice volume barely changed at all, while sea ice area did decline quite sharply from mid-April. The result? Sea Ice thickness increased in April and may well continue to do so until mid-May.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3251 on: May 06, 2020, 01:45:23 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 1 May 2020**   22,522 km3 - Continued...

And a look at sea ice volume, thickness & area, contrasting the seven seas of the High Arctic with the seven Peripheral Seas.
Peripheral Arctic Seas
In April Peripheral Arctic sea ice volume declines sharply in Mid-March to early April, flat-lined to  mid-April & then declined sharply again from mid-April.
Sea Ice area of the Peripheral Seas has declined sharply continuously since early March, and at a faster rate than volume decline.

The result? Sea Ice thickness of the remaining ice has increased sharply since early March & is now 2nd highest in this century, having been in the top 3 since mid-March. Less ice but  thicker. What this means for future seq ice loss I really do not know.

Certainly the High Arctic & the Peripheral Seas are two very different beasties.
.
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The Walrus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3252 on: May 06, 2020, 01:56:45 PM »
Am I reading that correctly?  The ice in the peripheral seas is at the thickest it as been since the turn of the century?  Anyone have any insight into this?

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3253 on: May 06, 2020, 02:44:07 PM »
Am I reading that correctly?  The ice in the peripheral seas is at the thickest it as been since the turn of the century?  Anyone have any insight into this?
Except for 2003 - but 2020 #1 from 22nd March to 14th April, and 2nd or 3rd since then. This year it is due to ssharp area loss (as it was in 2019).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3254 on: May 07, 2020, 05:50:26 AM »
Am I reading that correctly?  The ice in the peripheral seas is at the thickest it as been since the turn of the century?  Anyone have any insight into this?
PIOMAS thickness sometimes does funny things. The lower the ice area, often the higher the thickness. This is either an artifact of the model, or a result of the natural distribution of thicknesses in the Arctic ocean. What is the true answer? Hard to know without direct knowledge of the actual ice thickness distribution.
Example: If you have a peripheral sea concentration of 0.2m (30% - newly frozen FYI), 0.5m(30% - peripheral FYI), 1.5m(30% - good FYI or MYI exported from northern waters) and 3m(10% - pressure ridges) ice, average thickness is 0.37m. Now reduce all thicknesses by 0.2m due to melting. Your new concentration is 0.3m(30%), 1.3m(30%) and 2.8m(10%), total of 70%. Average thickness is 0.46m. Cause for celebration? Not quite. Any relation between my distribution and actual reality? None that I am aware of.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3255 on: May 07, 2020, 06:41:32 AM »
It's a tale of two Arctics. The CAB and Beaufort, as also shown in the diff map posted by Wipneus, are sporting positive anomalies (compared to other low years), while the Siberian side is tracking at lowest levels for the date. In principle, this could bring about an early drop in the Laptev and ESS, while stalling in the CAB and ending the season with high area/extent. Or the CAB could be hit by strong export, while the adjacent seas are decimated. Or early open water in the Inner Basin could cause low albedo and extra energy in the system. Or it could make no difference at all. Stay tuned...

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3256 on: May 07, 2020, 09:07:15 PM »
The somewhat surprising ice thickness and volume distribution in the Arctic seas and high Arctic is the result of the very strong polar vortex this winter which maintained strong cyclonic winds over the polar region. Despite the strong polar vortex, which kept cold air pretty well bottled up through the NH winter, polar region temperatures averaged above normal. That's solid evidence of Arctic warming. It should have been colder than normal with this winter's Arctic oscillation pattern.

The normal summer weather pattern is for Fram ice export to decline so, although an increased percentage of thicker ice is in position for export, don't expect massive export. As has been the case for the past decade, the ice extent in September will be controlled primarily by the weather. Nothing looks exceptional to me at this time except for global oceanic heat content which is at a record high. That heat is taking take its toll on the ice over the decades, but there's no sign yet in the weather & climate models of anything exceptional this summer.

blumenkraft

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3257 on: May 07, 2020, 09:08:33 PM »
Welcome back FOOW! Glad to see you around. :)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3258 on: May 08, 2020, 11:46:31 AM »
The ice in the peripheral seas is at the thickest it as been since the turn of the century?  Anyone have any insight into this?

Perhaps?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3259 on: May 08, 2020, 01:17:47 PM »
The ice in the peripheral seas is at the thickest it as been since the turn of the century?  Anyone have any insight into this?

Perhaps?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/
When the melting season starts, thin ice at the edges quickly melts - large area loss and small volume loss. So average thickness of the remaining ice goes up.

This winter saw a (relatively) high maximum - so even more thin ice to quickly melt & increase average thickness of the remaining ice even more?
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grixm

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3260 on: May 26, 2020, 10:05:29 PM »
Was there an update for mid-May?

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (May 2020)
« Reply #3261 on: May 27, 2020, 12:09:54 PM »
Was there an update for mid-May?

No, and by this time not likely will there be one.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3262 on: Today at 10:28:16 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated to day 152 (~1 June). Calculated volume was 19.6 [1000 km3], 6th lowest on that day of year.

Here is the May animation.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3263 on: Today at 10:47:47 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs. Click to size.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3264 on: Today at 11:03:12 AM »
A large amount of ice crossed the imaginary line in the Fram Straight in the beginning of May.

Wipneus

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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3266 on: Today at 11:10:57 AM »
Thickness map for day 152, compared with previous yeas and their diff's. Click for size.

RikW

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3267 on: Today at 01:21:09 PM »
What a difference between 2020 and other years in the beaufort sea. Same with area and extent for beaufort sea.

Curious why that is the case, can it be the fresh water lens, thus higher melting point?

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2020)
« Reply #3268 on: Today at 02:51:06 PM »
I attach volume graphs & tables formatted as for the Jaxa extent data. No drama; 6th lowest volume at the beginning of May, ditto at the end of the month.
« Last Edit: Today at 03:24:26 PM by gerontocrat »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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