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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (December)  (Read 855572 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June mid-monthly update )
« Reply #2400 on: June 29, 2018, 11:26:08 AM »
Here are the two graphs with a 1981-2010 base.

Improved?

Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June mid-monthly update )
« Reply #2401 on: June 29, 2018, 01:11:48 PM »
Your graph says 1979-2001 average.
I think that there is a finger error and it should say 1979-2009, as you say in the past comment.

I actually mentioned the anomaly graph, which uses the latter period. I agree this all lacks consistency, somebody should fix this asap.

Actually I am a defender of the 1979-2000 average, because I am convinced that we should not make a 30 years average when there is a notorious change on the Arctic Sea Ice.

The idea of the 1981-2010 average is to reflect climate, not weather. But if we make a 30 years average with satellites data, in fact, we are hidding the change that the ASI had on the beginning of the XXI Century.

Just seems odd that that instead of 1979-2000, you use the 1979-2001 average (nobody use it). But I like 1979-2000.


"Choosing a Base to compare ASI lost on PIOMAS Volume":
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1826.0.html
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 01:23:16 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2402 on: July 03, 2018, 04:26:30 PM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated, the official volume data not yet.
Calculated from thickness I get 13.8 [1000 km3] for 30th June, fifth sixth lowest place.

Here is the animation. As PIOMAS uses NSIDC sea ice concentration, I watched for some visual disturbance on the 27th. I don't see much there, perhaps you do.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 09:26:13 AM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2403 on: July 03, 2018, 04:31:07 PM »
Here are volume and volume-anomaly graphs. I decided to stick with 1979-2001 normal, mostly agreeing with Juan above.
Here a dip is visible around the 27th.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2404 on: July 03, 2018, 04:34:17 PM »
Fram export in June was less than usual for the month.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2405 on: July 03, 2018, 04:44:58 PM »
thickness for 30th June compared with previous year and the differences with 2018.

Wipneus

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Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2407 on: July 03, 2018, 05:21:23 PM »
Thanks, Wip!
Compare, compare, compare

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2408 on: July 03, 2018, 07:04:10 PM »
I notice that most of the anomalous volume of 2018 is in the Western ESS, Kara, and somewhat the Laptev.
Compared to the record years of 2012 and 2016 there is also a big positive anomaly in the Beaufort.
The extra Kara and probably the Laptev volume are expected to disappear soon. However the Beaufort and ESS could be significant retardants to a new record.

slow wing

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2409 on: July 03, 2018, 11:37:24 PM »
Thanks Wipneus, these are always appreciated!


Calculated from thickness I get 13.8 [1000 km3] for 30th June, fifth lowest place.
Graphs show 6th place? Behind 2010,11,12,16 & 17?


Based on those difference maps, this year is looking closest to 2016.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 12:05:43 AM by slow wing »

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2410 on: July 04, 2018, 07:12:28 AM »
An update on the regional volume of the various seas making up to the inner arctic basin. Big thanks as usual to Wipneus for the data.
Kara and Laptev.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 07:18:29 AM by oren »

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2411 on: July 04, 2018, 07:17:34 AM »
Chukchi and Beaufort

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2412 on: July 04, 2018, 07:19:09 AM »
ESS and the CAB.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2413 on: July 04, 2018, 07:47:00 AM »
And some numbers comparing this year to previous interesting years.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2414 on: July 04, 2018, 09:27:38 AM »
Thanks Wipneus, these are always appreciated!


Calculated from thickness I get 13.8 [1000 km3] for 30th June, fifth lowest place.
Graphs show 6th place? Behind 2010,11,12,16 & 17?

Thank for spotting, I miscounted. Corrected.

RikW

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2415 on: July 04, 2018, 09:47:08 AM »
Nice graphs oren;

If I interpret them correctly, some relative high volumes are almost certain to completely/ nearly completely melt out when i sea the graphs. So the volume difference with the current min-records will probably decrease?

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2416 on: July 04, 2018, 01:50:15 PM »
Fram export in June was less than usual for the month.
Put the export graph against the Greenland Sea area graph.
I still think there is a correlation, i.e.  when export picks up area gain increases or area loss slows down (somewhat stating the obvious, methinks) .
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2417 on: July 04, 2018, 02:47:10 PM »
I agree but I think it's beyond that - in recent years the ice is partially melting before it ever reaches Fram, making the export figures appear low.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2418 on: July 04, 2018, 05:36:37 PM »
Drawing from oren's several 'Volume by day of year' graphs, I project the following (eyeballed numbers and calculations) September minimums:

Region  Proj.Vol.  Prev.Yr.Proxy
Kara       0.02        2013
Laptev    0.05        based on 2017
Chukchi  0.0          most years
Beaufort 0.1          2014
ESS        0.1         est. ave. of 2006 & 2010
CAB        4.0         est. ave. of 2010, '11, '12 & '17
________________
total       4.3

(I'm adding numbers with different orders of magnitude, going from 1 significant digit data to a 2 digit sum; this is statistically not supportable, but geologists do it 'all the time' (especially when adding up elemental constituents from a rock analysis: for example, 3 digits for SiO2 [e.g. 67.7%] and 1 digit for MgO [e.g. 0.03%] resulting is a 4 digit total [e.g. 99.99%]) .
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2419 on: July 04, 2018, 10:04:51 PM »
Tor, I like your analysis but there are some caveats. The first is the CAA, which I did not include in the Inner Basin following Wipneus' convention, but that has never reached zero volume at minimum. I'd say add about 0.2 for a total of 4.5.
The second is the Greenland Sea, which historically has never been "empty" at minimum, but came very close to that in 2017. I'd say add 0.05, with the total remaining at 4.5.
The third is that day 260 is not necessarily the minimum, so potentially the minimum could come in a bit lower.
In any case, the big wildcard is the CAB.
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 10:17:52 PM by oren »

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2420 on: July 04, 2018, 10:24:41 PM »
I am sure nobody wants more of these charts... but here's one last pair of charts, a total of all the regions that normally participate in the PIOMAS minimum. Eyeballing, I'd say this year can easily finish 2nd, and even a volume record is still possible.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2421 on: July 04, 2018, 11:38:21 PM »
...Eyeballing, I'd say this year can easily finish 2nd, and even a volume record is still possible.

How much could a continuation of the trend to cold Summers and warm Winters effect that?

I guess I am speculating about H2O this coming Winter; which is forbotten...

uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2422 on: July 05, 2018, 12:06:34 AM »
thanks for the charts Oren, it all adds to the big picture

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2423 on: July 05, 2018, 12:43:47 AM »
Tor, I like your analysis but there are some caveats. The first is the CAA, which I did not include in the Inner Basin following Wipneus' convention, but that has never reached zero volume at minimum. I'd say add about 0.2 for a total of 4.5.
The second is the Greenland Sea, which historically has never been "empty" at minimum, but came very close to that in 2017. I'd say add 0.05, with the total remaining at 4.5.
The third is that day 260 is not necessarily the minimum, so potentially the minimum could come in a bit lower.
In any case, the big wildcard is the CAB.
I hadn't, of course, said my 4.3 was a projected Arctic minimum.  Thanks for the two additional regions.  I'd go with your regions's projection, so 4.5 would be an Arctic projected minimum using this method. Day 260 is close enough to "minimum" for projection purposes, as far as I'm concerned.
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Pagophilus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2424 on: July 05, 2018, 05:31:50 AM »
I am sure nobody wants more of these charts... but here's one last pair of charts, a total of all the regions that normally participate in the PIOMAS minimum. Eyeballing, I'd say this year can easily finish 2nd, and even a volume record is still possible.

Actually I much appreciate all the charts... each one is like seeing a ever-morphing three dimensional object from a new angle.  So thank you to oren, Wipneus, gerontocrat and all others who do the invaluable work on this. 

I know that earlier there was an argument that the CAB ice appears so compact that it might hold together unusually well, and that that might inhibit any approach to a new record low.  Does that argument still hold, in your view? 
« Last Edit: July 05, 2018, 05:36:41 PM by Pagophilus »

El Cid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2425 on: July 05, 2018, 09:42:21 AM »
I am sure nobody wants more of these charts... but here's one last pair of charts, a total of all the regions that normally participate in the PIOMAS minimum. Eyeballing, I'd say this year can easily finish 2nd, and even a volume record is still possible.

Oren, this is a highly relevant chart and for one, I much appreciate it! It shows that anything is still possibble this year - especially considering the current siberian heat wave which might obliterate the ESS. We'll see

RikW

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2426 on: July 05, 2018, 01:16:00 PM »
I also really really like them, the more charts, the better :)

Brigantine

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2427 on: July 06, 2018, 01:01:21 AM »
Actually I much appreciate all the charts...
+1

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2428 on: July 08, 2018, 12:34:26 PM »
I like the charts too, and so I've used one for the latest PIOMAS update over on the ASIB. Thanks, oren.
Compare, compare, compare

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2429 on: July 08, 2018, 02:28:24 PM »
Neven, thanks for the honorable mention (and your as-usual excellent writeup). However it seems you mentioned one chart (inner+caa+grnl) but you attached another (cab only). Both tell a similar story but it's still a little mix-up.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2430 on: July 08, 2018, 02:32:53 PM »
I was wondering where my traditional mistake was hidden. Thanks for pointing out, I've added the other graph as well.
Compare, compare, compare

Ned W

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July)
« Reply #2431 on: July 08, 2018, 02:40:17 PM »
the more charts, the better :)

That would seem to be the unofficial motto of this place...

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2432 on: July 19, 2018, 10:15:25 AM »
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated upto 15th of July. Calculated volume for that day is 10.18 [1000km3] which is fourth lowest for the day (hope I got that right).

Here is the animation.

Avalonian

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2433 on: July 19, 2018, 10:24:39 AM »
Interesting how this shows traces of the spectacular thinning of the Beaufort side seen in the US Navy graphics a few days back - although not to the same extent.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2434 on: July 19, 2018, 10:37:34 AM »
Updated Fram export graph: no export in July.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2435 on: July 19, 2018, 10:42:54 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs show the melt in July is higher than most until now.

Wipneus

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RikW

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2437 on: July 19, 2018, 10:47:10 AM »
The ESS has quickly turned green last 2 weeks...

Assuming there are no significant deviations with reality I think we will dodge a record again. I've been studying the graphs if I can see an increase in melting season duration, but that's hard to see.

Beaufort does look bad, how much melt normally happens during the remaining 6-9 weeks? around 50-75cm on average? If that's true, beaufort should go *poof* or the model is clearly wrong ;)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2438 on: July 19, 2018, 11:47:05 AM »
Here are several regional charts based on the data from Wipneus. This time I am focusing on this year's laggards - Kara, Beaufort and the ESS, in addition to my usual chart summing up all the regions typically participating in the September volume minimum.
As can be seen, Kara has done some catching up, Beaufort and ESS are still lagging, and the "Inner+" is still keeping up with the leaders.

echoughton

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2439 on: July 19, 2018, 12:59:04 PM »
GREAT work, as usual, Wipneus....one of the reasons I love this forum.
 8) 8) 8) 8) 8)

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2440 on: July 27, 2018, 11:05:38 PM »
Assuming there are no significant deviations with reality I think we will dodge a record again. I've been studying the graphs if I can see an increase in melting season duration, but that's hard to see.


I was jolted into action by "shared humanity" - who on the melting season thread was saying how it is volume that is the metric that matters most. So I took the daily PIOMAS data and made a mirror image of NSIDC area and extent spreadsheets with it. Here is the 1st result - data only to 30th June as I am content to wait for the Polar Science Center to put out the data each month.

And what the hell - a trashy guess at this years minimum volume.

If you ignore that it is volume in the graph , you could be looking at NSIDC Area. or Extent, or JAXA extent. 
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2441 on: August 04, 2018, 11:32:45 AM »
PIOMAS thickness data has been released. The official volume data (and graphs) not yet.

My calculation of the latest date (31 Jul) volume is 7.58 [1000km3], fifth lowest behind 2010,2011,2012 and 2017. Actually very close to 2016 with 7.6 [1000km3]

Here is the thickness animation of July.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 12:05:05 PM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2442 on: August 04, 2018, 12:11:24 PM »
Here are the updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs (with volume in July 2018 calculated from thickness).

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2443 on: August 04, 2018, 12:14:43 PM »
Who expected any Fram export anyway?

Wipneus

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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2445 on: August 04, 2018, 12:21:34 PM »
Who expected any Fram export anyway?
Well, not me.

Qu. (there always is). Is sort of zero Fram export July to late fall the normal since way back when, or is it a newish thing since MYI sort of evaporated?
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Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2446 on: August 04, 2018, 12:28:38 PM »
I had expected a slightly larger drop, but 2018 does creep closer to the top 3.
Compare, compare, compare

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2447 on: August 04, 2018, 12:40:26 PM »
Who expected any Fram export anyway?
Well, not me.

Qu. (there always is). Is sort of zero Fram export July to late fall the normal since way back when, or is it a newish thing since MYI sort of evaporated?

1) the grey line in the background is the average (2001-2017) of the monthly export. 2018 is well below even that.

2) last year I posted an animation of fram export just to answer your question (with 2017 showing very little export). Rather than looking up the port, I attach the animation again. "Zero" summer export happened before, but is certainly not the rule.

meddoc

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2448 on: August 04, 2018, 12:43:15 PM »
Albeit a late GAC or some other Extreme Event, I'd say this Year we dodged another Bullet.
However, Autumn- Winter Refreeze will be very hindered, as large open Areas persisted (Chukchi, Bering, Barents, NA) all Year round almost.

& not to forget salty water from Wave Action also fools the Sensors- ergo the more Storms & more open Water develop, PIOMAS Numbers should be viewed with Critique.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2449 on: August 04, 2018, 12:44:24 PM »
Thickness map of 31 July, compared with previous years.