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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (September)  (Read 784552 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2500 on: September 03, 2018, 08:21:04 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2501 on: September 03, 2018, 08:25:10 PM »
Nothing in the Fram Strait export...

Wipneus

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meddoc

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2503 on: September 03, 2018, 08:42:45 PM »
Thanks Wip!

Numbers however seem to be too good...
Lincoln Sea & above CAA is a Rubble, while ESS Arm is much thinner and fragmented than in PIOMAS Graphic Data.

ghoti

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2504 on: September 03, 2018, 09:24:56 PM »
Am I misinterpreting the Worldview of the ESS ice? Looks way thinner than PIOMAS August 31 suggests.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2505 on: September 03, 2018, 10:18:59 PM »
PIOMAS Data and Graphs in same format as JAXA posts as at 31 August

I attach a table and two graphs. The 2018 line has been following the 2010's average for months now.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2506 on: September 04, 2018, 05:15:20 AM »
Thank you Wipneus.
I find it interesting this year that PIOMAS modeled thickness was a good predictor of the melting difficulty of certain regions.
In both the Beaufort and the ESS, the areas that appeared to be thick initially have indeed lasted quite a long time while other areas in the same seas have already melted.
The same happened in the Laptev as can be seen by the latest animation, melt has progressed rather rapidly until reaching a local region of thicker (modeled) ice, where melt slowed down considerably.
Even in the Lincoln Sea, modeled thickness has been low since the February lift-off + warmth event, and indeed this year saw this location open up during late summer in an unprecedented way.
I note that PIOMAS is considered more accurate on the general volume that on the specific location it is to be found in, especially as it uses the crude NSIDC grid. So in spite of that, it had a good predictive capability this year.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2507 on: September 04, 2018, 06:00:45 AM »
Am I misinterpreting the Worldview of the ESS ice? Looks way thinner than PIOMAS August 31 suggests.

Ya, no. I have been saying this for a while. This is a good/great model, but when it is obviously wrong, we should acknowledge it as such.

2 months ago, PIOMAS was modelling much of the ESS as 10-15 feet thick. Need I say more?
big time oops

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2508 on: September 04, 2018, 07:24:42 AM »
2 months ago, PIOMAS was modelling much of the ESS as 10-15 feet thick. Need I say more?
Not true. 2 months ago, June 30th, PIOMAS was modelling a small part of the ESS as up to 2.5m (8ft) thick, and much of the ESS as up to 2m thick.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg161984.html#msg161984

Sterks

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2509 on: September 04, 2018, 08:46:10 AM »

 I was expecting a greater drop as well. But I don't think it is because of mismodeling, but because the Beaufort sea has all that excess of ice wrt other hotter years as Wip maps clearly show. Melting has been stagnant there with colder SSTs this August. Also, after all, there is still quite some ice in ESS, the melting there has been catching up due to weather but still is well above most 2010s.

Tealight

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2510 on: September 04, 2018, 12:52:38 PM »
Am I misinterpreting the Worldview of the ESS ice? Looks way thinner than PIOMAS August 31 suggests.

PIOMAS is quite low resolution so the ice-free areas average out with the last remaining thick floes. My AMSR2 derived Volume model is more detailed and shows gaps in the ESS arm.

https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/amsr2-sea-ice-volume

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2511 on: September 06, 2018, 05:16:45 AM »
2 months ago, PIOMAS was modelling much of the ESS as 10-15 feet thick. Need I say more?
Not true. 2 months ago, June 30th, PIOMAS was modelling a small part of the ESS as up to 2.5m (8ft) thick, and much of the ESS as up to 2m thick.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg161984.html#msg161984

You're right. I misremembered that. Thanks. Not sure what I am thinking of. I remembered it as white.
big time oops

iceman

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2512 on: September 09, 2018, 01:37:53 PM »
My AMSR2 derived Volume model is more detailed ....

This model seems useful. Just curious: have you looked into correlations with Fram export?

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2513 on: September 09, 2018, 04:08:12 PM »
2 months ago, PIOMAS was modelling much of the ESS as 10-15 feet thick. Need I say more?
Not true. 2 months ago, June 30th, PIOMAS was modelling a small part of the ESS as up to 2.5m (8ft) thick, and much of the ESS as up to 2m thick.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg161984.html#msg161984

Nothing like data and facts.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2514 on: September 09, 2018, 04:13:26 PM »
My AMSR2 derived Volume model is more detailed ....

This model seems useful. Just curious: have you looked into correlations with Fram export?

What is most intriguing is how the thickest ice has lifted off the CAA and appears to be heading toward the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas.

Tealight

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2515 on: September 11, 2018, 11:19:56 PM »
My AMSR2 derived Volume model is more detailed ....

This model seems useful. Just curious: have you looked into correlations with Fram export?

Nope. Since the September minima are ranked similar to PIOMAS. I don't think my model gives any surprises there.

What is most intriguing is how the thickest ice has lifted off the CAA and appears to be heading toward the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas.

I wouldn't read too much into it. The region might be exaggerated by snow which can be blown away. Those very thick region come and go in the raw data from ADS and in these cases my algorithm just smoothes out wild thickness swings. (My own freeze calculation only goes up to 50cm, everything above is from JAXA/ADS algorithm)

Here are some previous years to compare:
https://drive.google.com/drive/u/1/folders/1G9s1Z0-15hjvFxHD-wOg24e24wZWHAws
« Last Edit: September 11, 2018, 11:27:16 PM by Tealight »

johnm33

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2516 on: September 12, 2018, 09:56:41 AM »
"What is most intriguing is how the thickest ice has lifted off the CAA and appears to be heading toward the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas."
The ice does appear more mobile and more compressible so I'm wondering how much that affects the fluctuation of thickness. It seems that any movement towards the center of mass would rapidly caused ridging, which being newly formed would, when pushed away from the main body, equally rapidly break apart. I'm guessing that the Beaufort residual is formed from the more durable remnants.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2517 on: September 17, 2018, 10:45:15 PM »
Better late than never (+ a discussion of the end of this melting season):

PIOMAS September 2018
Compare, compare, compare

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September)
« Reply #2518 on: September 17, 2018, 10:53:23 PM »
Well written as usual Neven. In a couple pf days we'll also have the PIOMAS mid-month number, to more or less wrap up this melting season.