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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (November)  (Read 816860 times)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2550 on: October 04, 2018, 10:58:35 AM »
Latest thickness map, compared with previous years and their diff's.
Click for big size.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2551 on: October 04, 2018, 11:00:36 AM »
am using  Sum_of ( heff * uice * HTE) for a row of gridcells spanning the Fram Strait (I posted a map a few days ago). Heff is effective thickness, uice is appropriate velocity component and HTE the width of the gridcell along the row.
Wipneus, would you be willing to calculate historical volume export across a much more northerly line? Assuming it is possible/easy to do. I think most recent summers had no ice near the Fram export line. You could say that the Atlantic has moved beyond Svalbard, so the export line needs to move as well.
If you are willing, I think it would be useful to see a historical chart/data for the line I've drawn on your map. I expect exported volume to have dropped significantly over the years, but to still be above zero even in recent years during spring and summer. My main interest is the comparison of years such as 2016 where the pack kept trying to swim to the Atlantic, to years like 2018 where things were mostly static (or even in reverse).

echoughton

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2552 on: October 04, 2018, 01:00:14 PM »
Thanks Wip...terrific as usual. I am posting link on my FB Climate Change group and suggest they come and join. I am sure you'll see a bump up in members, Nevin.

Ned W

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2553 on: October 04, 2018, 03:10:12 PM »
Minimum volume was reached at 15 September: 5.0 [1000 km3]. Volume at 30 September is 5.12 [1000 km3], which is fifth lowest (it went below 2010 during the last days).

Thanks.  Very nice.

Compared with a year ago, most extrapolations to "zero ice" have also advanced by about a year. Extrapolating the extrapolations gives zero ice at infinity.

We'll probably hit zero ice well before the year infinity.  Getting there is just a noisy, irregular, nonlinear process.


Phil.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2554 on: October 04, 2018, 03:31:47 PM »
I notice that although Fram export is below average for September it's above last year's value.

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2555 on: October 04, 2018, 04:46:23 PM »
Here is the graph with different curve fittings. Compared with a year ago, most extrapolations to "zero ice" have also advanced by about a year. Extrapolating the extrapolations gives zero ice at infinity.

 ;D It's not just my 4 parameter gompertz fit that does this.  ;D

More seriously, extrapolating the curves from last year to this year is a bit crazy. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare the fits from 5 or 10 years before and extrapolate that?

Sterks

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2556 on: October 04, 2018, 05:21:53 PM »

Here is the graph with different curve fittings. Compared with a year ago, most extrapolations to "zero ice" have also advanced by about a year. Extrapolating the extrapolations gives zero ice at infinity.
Lol. That's great comment, something similar Achilles thought when running toward the turtle.
If there is a slowdown of the ice destruction rate, it may seem that there always be some ice.
But Achilles ended up catching the turtle in reality

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August)
« Reply #2557 on: October 04, 2018, 06:00:07 PM »
PIOMAS VOLUME TO 30th SEPTEMBER

A table and some graphs - different views of the same data.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2558 on: October 04, 2018, 06:09:09 PM »
Daily and monthly regional volume data is updated:
daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz
monthly:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional-monthly.txt.gz
On my computer the downloaded data file shows only rubbish. Is there a readable version available? Thanks Stephan

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2559 on: October 04, 2018, 06:24:56 PM »
Daily and monthly regional volume data is updated:
daily:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz
monthly:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional-monthly.txt.gz
On my computer the downloaded data file shows only rubbish. Is there a readable version available? Thanks Stephan
You need to unzip it (there's lot of free software for that) and then you get a text file which can be converted to excel or other data processing of your choice. Here's the unzipped text file. (Thanks Wipneus)

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2560 on: October 06, 2018, 01:08:36 PM »
Here is the graph with different curve fittings. Compared with a year ago, most extrapolations to "zero ice" have also advanced by about a year.

It has been like that for several years now.

For example for the exponential extrapolation:  back in the early 2010s it reached zero by September 2015.  But when updating it with the most recent data, the point where the extrapolation reaches zero has advanced to 2023/2024:





The Gompertz extrapolation has also shifted substantially:  https://i.imgur.com/7OP5xTM.gif

The linear extrapolation has been more stable: https://i.imgur.com/gw5FTvz.gif

Anyway, I think all those extrapolations should be taken with a grain of salt.

crandles

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2561 on: October 06, 2018, 03:49:48 PM »
Anyway, I think all those extrapolations should be taken with a grain of salt.

So extrapolating data up to 2010, it was 5 years ahead and extrapolating data up to 2018, it was 6 years ahead ..... So extrapolating data to 1970, we must have already reached ice free!  ;D

Hmm. yes I think you are right,  these extrapolations should be taken with a grain of salt.

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2562 on: October 06, 2018, 06:12:05 PM »
So extrapolating data up to 2010, it was 5 years ahead and extrapolating data up to 2018, it was 6 years ahead

Indeed, the exponential extrapolation for the September PIOMAS minimum has been basically stuck at "ice free in (approximately) 5 years".  Gompertz follows a similar path but is a bit further in the future.  And the end date for the linear extrapolation decreased in the 2000s but didn't change much in the 2010s.



Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2563 on: October 06, 2018, 06:58:44 PM »
Thank you for that wonderful explanation and vizualisation. With my primitive Open Office fits I experienced the same this year (even a jump of even three years for this September from 2024 to 2027, see my postings in the thread "When Will the Arctic Go Ice Free?" from Sep 07 and Oct 04, 2018). I think the reason is that the extent and volume loss has not again accelerated (as it did from 80s→90s and from 90s→00s). But the losses have not paused or stalled, and the missing acceleration in the 10s could be easily explained by the fact that the less ice is present, the far north it is and it is harder to melt than e.g. thin FYI in Barents or Bering Seas.

meddoc

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2564 on: October 08, 2018, 12:54:51 PM »
Here is the graph with different curve fittings. Compared with a year ago, most extrapolations to "zero ice" have also advanced by about a year.







That's not a realistic graph, since 2016-17-18 are slipped beyond 2020 on the x Axis.

binntho

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2565 on: October 08, 2018, 12:59:07 PM »
That's not a realistic graph, since 2016-17-18 are slipped beyond 2020 on the x Axis.

Doesn't look like that to me.


Peter Ellis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2566 on: October 08, 2018, 01:45:27 PM »

Steven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2567 on: October 08, 2018, 05:18:42 PM »
That's not a realistic graph, since 2016-17-18 are slipped beyond 2020 on the x Axis.

Doesn't look like that to me.

I used the same convention as in Wipneus' graphs:  the ticks on the x-axis are placed at the start of the year (1 January) whereas the data points are placed at mid September.  For example the last data point in the graph has x-coordinate  2018.7  which is September 2018.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2568 on: October 10, 2018, 05:10:44 PM »
Am I reading this right? In the PIOMAS daily regional the minimum was on September 30, the last day in the set, so for all we know the CAB hasn't reached minimum yet?
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

be cause

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2569 on: October 10, 2018, 05:23:17 PM »
Am I reading this right? In the PIOMAS daily regional the minimum was on September 30, the last day in the set, so for all we know the CAB hasn't reached minimum yet?
[/quo


 .. my musings last night led me to think PIOMAS may still be falling .. I rarely look in on this thread .. funny to find my question already here .. :)
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2570 on: October 10, 2018, 06:57:44 PM »
Am I reading this right? In the PIOMAS daily regional the minimum was on September 30, the last day in the set, so for all we know the CAB hasn't reached minimum yet?
Yes, a very strange behavior, but something similar happened in 2009 as well.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2571 on: October 10, 2018, 06:59:30 PM »
Thanks Oren.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2572 on: October 10, 2018, 07:13:05 PM »
The slow early growth in volume in 2009 was followed by a new low at the end of the melt season in 2010. If this slow growth continues, might we see a repeat of this?

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2573 on: October 10, 2018, 07:23:47 PM »
BTW, there is a slim chance that the total volume may set a new minimum (though I highly doubt it).


Dharma Rupa

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2574 on: October 10, 2018, 07:28:08 PM »
The slow early growth in volume in 2009 was followed by a new low at the end of the melt season in 2010. If this slow growth continues, might we see a repeat of this?

Might.  Might not.  Might see worse.  Might see a new low by the beginning of the melt season. Might see a boring Summer.  Isn't Climatology fun?  Almost as much fun as Economics.

AmbiValent

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2575 on: October 11, 2018, 03:29:32 PM »
It could be a problem if heat is getting pumped into the Arctic. The winter 2016/17 broke volume minimum records for months, and 2017 dodged a cannonball where it had a long period of less than average melting.
Bright ice, how can you crack and fail? How can the ice that seemed so mighty suddenly seem so frail?

Dharma Rupa

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2576 on: October 11, 2018, 04:23:09 PM »
It could be a problem if heat is getting pumped into the Arctic. The winter 2016/17 broke volume minimum records for months, and 2017 dodged a cannonball where it had a long period of less than average melting.

I'm beginning to think there will be no cannonball, and that it will be coolish summers and warm winters for quite some time (as in until the next ice age).  It's my guess that we will have a BOE not because of a lot of melt, but rather because of not much of a freeze.

Andreas T

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October)
« Reply #2577 on: October 13, 2018, 05:54:25 PM »
apologies if this should be in another thread, but i only just found that CPOM has updated their cryosat based volume graph. Maybe this can serve as supporting information for the discussion about the recent volume trend.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2578 on: October 19, 2018, 02:25:27 PM »
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated, last day 15 October.
Volume (calculated from thickness) at that day was 5.53 [1000 km3], third lowest behind 2012 and 2016 and just below 20122011 (5.55 [1000 km3])

Here is the animation for October.
« Last Edit: October 21, 2018, 08:46:59 AM by Wipneus »

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2579 on: October 19, 2018, 02:44:00 PM »
Daily volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2580 on: October 19, 2018, 02:54:22 PM »
Daily regional volume data is updated:
:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

The ice-velocity data was not updated, so the Fram volume export graph will have to wait.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2581 on: October 20, 2018, 12:10:23 PM »
A look at the latest volume using the same methodology as I use for JAXA Sea Ice Extent

PIOMAS / Wipneus Volume Data - 5.533 '000 km3 as at 15th October 2018


Volume is
- 3rd lowest for the day in the records going back to 1979,
- 654 km3 (10.6%) below the 2010's average,
- 426 km3 (7.1%) below 2017,
- 776 km3 (16.3%) above 2012,
- 166 km3 (3.1%) above 2016.

Volume gain since maximum is 530 km3, some 699 km3 (56.9%) below the average 2010's gain of 1,229 km3, with on averge 6.9% of the volume gain done.

This is consistent with the very low extent and area sea ice gains recorded by JAXA and NSIDC.
_________________________________________________________________________
N.B. Posted on an E. & O.E. basis as produced using "Libre" as my Excel died and I will not pay for another. Please let me know if any errors in data or calculations.
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2582 on: October 20, 2018, 03:09:02 PM »
After a further update here is the Fram volume export graph: more export than in 2017 less than the long time (2000-2017) average.

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2583 on: October 20, 2018, 04:52:10 PM »
After a further update here is the Fram volume export graph: more export than in 2017 less than the long time (2000-2017) average.

putting that number in relation to how much is there in that region to be exported, especially volume wise, considering the former up to 5m ice, would that relativate those numbers, expecially the "below long term average part"

i mean once there is zero ice, export will be zero, way below long-term average and still anything but good news, hope i more or less able to make my point.

IMO any numbers and news should be in one or another way to put into context, naked numbers can be very misleading on either side, calming or alarming.

with putting into context i don't mean that each post has to contain the everything that's there to say but kind of mentioning what has to be considered would be good.

the reason why i'm posting this is that so often after numbers come out or develop in a certain manner a huge discussion gets loose with different standpoints that often if not mostly origin in the angle of observation, means, taking in some info, filter it by the personal preference or exception filter and then forget to look from the other side. all very normal and understandable but again, could be reduced by hinting at the shortcomings of "out of context" numbers

thanks
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2584 on: October 20, 2018, 06:34:02 PM »
And here is the Wipneus Fram export growth matched against Greenland Sea Ice Area.

No export and Greenland Sea Area goes down.

Without Fram Export methinks Greenland Sea would be mostly ice free for most of the year
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 07:43:08 PM by gerontocrat »
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Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2585 on: October 20, 2018, 07:46:12 PM »
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated, last day 15 October.
Volume (calculated from thickness) at that day was 5.53 [1000 km3], third lowest behind 2012 and 2016 and just below 2012 (5.55 [1000 km3])

...and just below 2012 2011?
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2586 on: October 20, 2018, 09:59:28 PM »
A belated PIOMAS update, but this allowed me to include Wipneus' latest graph, and show how 2018 went from 6th lowest minimum, to 5th lowest at the end of September, to 3rd lowest mid-October.
Compare, compare, compare

Jim Hunt

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2587 on: October 20, 2018, 11:30:14 PM »
For comparison purposes, the CPOM CryoSat-2 thickness map has filled out further:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#CryoSat-NRT
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Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2588 on: October 21, 2018, 08:48:59 AM »

Sam

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2589 on: October 24, 2018, 07:38:15 PM »
As we consider the various regression estimates to when we may see the first ice free Arctic, there are several important points that appear to have been missed.

The first is that this is a random or pseudo-random system. We do not have the ability to make perfect predictions. There will be oscillations above and below the projected mean. These show some degree of apparent autocorrelation, meaning that they do not behave fully randomly. Instead, the data behaves as if there is memory of preceding years in the system, combined with randomness. That apparent autocorrelation is likely the result of atmospheric oscillations which we already know do correlate with ice behavior in the Arctic.

The presence of autocorrelation violates the assumptions inherent in the trend modeling. The equations were developed presuming the data is fully random. As a result, we need to apply a large dose of caution in evaluating any of the regression curves.

The second and most important point is that the Arctic will go ice free not when the mean reaches zero, but when that random or pseudo-random variation reaches zero. This could happen at any time as we approach the two sigma lower bound of the estimates. It will almost certainly happen by the time we exceed the two sigma upper bound of the estimates. This takes three to five+ years off of the projection estimated curves time of intersecting zero.

Third, at least informally, recognizing that at the end that land fast ice might remain artificially delaying the first 100% ice free time, we all (or at least nearly all) informally agreed to a definition of essentially ice free at 1 million square kilometers or less. This pulls back the estimated first essentially ice free Arctic September by another 2-5 years from the projected estimate.

We can never give a fixed date on when this will happen, until it does happen. That is inherent to random and pseudo-random processes.

We humans have a sick fixation on having precise predictions, and almost no tolerance for those projections being wrong. This is especially true and biased toward objecting to things we don't like or don't want.

The earlier projections by some that we might see an essentially ice free Arctic September as early as 2010 were correct taking all of this into account with data and uncertainties available at the time. Note that that was not a prediction of when we would see zero ice, but rather based on the data and errors when we might see it. In retrospect they were not right precisely because of the autocorrelation in the system.

What is clear now, with those same caveats is that we will see our first essentially ice free Arctic September in about 2022-2023. Depending on the pseudo-random walk of the actual conditions, that could happen as early as next year, or as late as the early 2030s. Though it has the highest probability of happening close to the mean of the projections, there is a greater than 50% chance it will occur earlier or later.

But this all misses an important point. Whether the ice free conditions begin in 2020 or 2040, they are coming.

Which ever or when ever it is, one fact is not in doubt, human caused global warming through CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and other gas emissions are melting the polar ice and will cause an ice free Arctic Ocean this century, probably before mid century. There is no way to stop that now. The consequences of that will devastate the entire globe.

We might with immense and unprecedented global cooperation and effort avoid the complete melting of the Greenland ice. Human nature is such that we do not and will not cooperate in that way. We will not ever choose to voluntarily end civilization as we know it to save ourselves. And so, Mother Nature will do it for us. We will continue to grow until we reach the hard limits of the Earth's system forcing a catastrophic collapse and the death of nearly all humans and the final and permanent extinction of the overwhelming majority of most species extant on Earth today.

Evolutionarily this is a great thing! Massive extinction events are the single strongest driver for evolutionary advancement. That does not mean that mankind will survive the transition. Man is an incredibly adaptable animal. But we are not infinitely adaptable. Mankinds survival, despite our immense numbers, is in no way assured. Should we manage to drive the system hard enough to result in an oxygen crisis with atmospheric O2 levels dipping to 14%, most large animals are likely to perish, mankind included. Sucks for us no matter what.

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2590 on: October 24, 2018, 08:46:03 PM »
It is already happening. The idea that Greenland is going anywhere is also stupid. Look at the response we have seen with our current situation! Does anyone think the evolving situation isn't going to worsen in both directions (+ anomaly at Pole, -anomaly over Greenland / Canada)?

The albedo shifts are going to be catastrophic to the NHEM's old climate. We are probably going to see worsening cooling over North America the next ten years and worsening warming everywhere else, until Siberia starts to catch up with Canada again (who knows how icy Canada has to get for that to happen).

In the meantime, heat is continuing to accumulate year-over-year in the Arctic proper. But the notion this will result in a BOE rather than continued shifts is kind of silly. Does a Greenland-centric NHEM 500MB pattern result in less sea ice, yes, but I think there is a very good chance that we see a shift from the CAB to the CAA, with a floor somewhere around 1-1.5M KM^2 as the "re-organization" continues.

Dharma Rupa

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2591 on: October 25, 2018, 02:01:50 AM »
Third, at least informally, recognizing that at the end that land fast ice might remain artificially delaying the first 100% ice free time, we all (or at least nearly all) informally agreed to a definition of essentially ice free at 1 million square kilometers or less. This pulls back the estimated first essentially ice free Arctic September by another 2-5 years from the projected estimate.

Some of us prefer saying that the Arctic is essentially ice-free when the DMI 80 N in Summer is no longer pinned near zero.  That is, the Arctic is ice-free when there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold.

Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2592 on: October 25, 2018, 02:42:18 AM »
The cooling in the lower latitudes is the result of Arctic air being pushed out of the Arctic.  If the Arctic temperatures warm, there will be no cold air to push to lower latitudes.

 

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2593 on: October 25, 2018, 03:00:14 AM »
The cooling in the lower latitudes is the result of Arctic air being pushed out of the Arctic.  If the Arctic temperatures warm, there will be no cold air to push to lower latitudes.
Yes, because at that point Greenland magically "poofs" out of existence and we become Venus. How sensible!

Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2594 on: October 25, 2018, 04:06:45 AM »
Perhaps you should cut back on the caffeine.  You are acting like Hyperion did to constructive criticism of his pet theories.  Especially regarding the extreme nonsense you spouted, that no one has mentioned but you.

One assumption in your pet theory that is wrong, is that NH lower latitudes have been colder.  Actually, averaged around the globe they have been warmer, consistent with the continuing warming trend.  It would be best described as cold pockets of air.

The reason for the impression of colder lower latitudes is that we hear more about the extremes.
Also, increased reported snowfall is incorrectly attributed to colder temperatures, when, in fact, it is due to increased atmospheric water vapor.

   
 

 
 
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 04:51:18 AM by Cid_Yama »

Sam

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2595 on: October 25, 2018, 04:34:12 AM »
bbr2314,

What you seem to suggest (oscillation in the location of the cold pole) would only apply if there were essentially no net warming. But ... there is massive generalized warming. That is why the artic ice is melting - not because of an oscillation about where the cold pole is.

Once the Arctic Ocean ice is gone, Greenland will be the north cold pole. All the heat that has gone into melting the arctic ice will then shift into heating the ocean AND melting Greenland. Greenland is large and the ice is deep. That will take time to melt - perhaps 100-200 years. Hopefully we will have learned something before then as a result of the end of civilization and agriculture. No bet there though. Man hasn’t exhibited any sign of wisdom or learning yet. So I see little basis to suggest mankind will learn from the calamity.

Still, we have some time before the loss of all north polar ice is complete.

Beyond that, it will likely take a millennia to melt off Antarctica. Surely we will learn something before then, or simply die off entirely. In either case, I will be long dead and long past caring. Unless and until we melt off Antarctica we cannot pull off a new Venus - not that that should ever be a goal.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2596 on: October 25, 2018, 04:39:46 AM »

Some of us prefer saying that the Arctic is essentially ice-free when the DMI 80 N in Summer is no longer pinned near zero.  That is, the Arctic is ice-free when there is no longer enough ice to keep it cold.


You can add me to that group.

The first attachment shows Maximum volume and loss of ice for the years 2000-2018 with a linear trend for each. It also shows the average losses.

The second attachment shows the melt to max ratio. In the complete PIOMAS there is a very distinct spike around 2007 that to me it indicates a change of state. In the CAB dataset from the year 2000 instead of 1980 the state change is less pronounced, but It is still there as the physics suggest to me.

The third attachment shows the max from 2000-2018 and the losses from 2007-2008 assuming there has been a state change in the loses.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2597 on: October 25, 2018, 04:56:36 AM »
bbr2314,

What you seem to suggest (oscillation in the location of the cold pole) would only apply if there were essentially no net warming. But ... there is massive generalized warming. That is why the artic ice is melting - not because of an oscillation about where the cold pole is.

Once the Arctic Ocean ice is gone, Greenland will be the north cold pole. All the heat that has gone into melting the arctic ice will then shift into heating the ocean AND melting Greenland. Greenland is large and the ice is deep. That will take time to melt - perhaps 100-200 years. Hopefully we will have learned something before then as a result of the end of civilization and agriculture. No bet there though. Man hasn’t exhibited any sign of wisdom or learning yet. So I see little basis to suggest mankind will learn from the calamity.

Still, we have some time before the loss of all north polar ice is complete.

Beyond that, it will likely take a millennia to melt off Antarctica. Surely we will learn something before then, or simply die off entirely. In either case, I will be long dead and long past caring. Unless and until we melt off Antarctica we cannot pull off a new Venus - not that that should ever be a goal.

I think you are missing my point. Where we are *today* we are *already* seeing relative cooling in Greenland (even if calving and some SMB loss continue). This is probably due to 1) higher Greenland albedo due to increasing snowfall and 2) the cold pool from all the fresh melt in both Greenland and Canada, which buffers Greenland from the Gulf Stream to some extent.

If we are at 2018, six years after 2012 (worst summer on record) and summertime temps have *dropped* fairly consistently, year over year since then over a specific region -- it is time to consider that the inflection point of 2012 was the flipping switch where we went from "everywhere is getting hotter" to "hold on a minute, most everywhere is still getting hotter, but this specific spot in particular is now becoming colder in terms of temps each years, and the spot itself is now increasing in size to cover the entire Canadian Shield and Greenland".

So what happens when we get to 2024 and the Arctic is still spiraling in terms of volume? Will the trend that has developed since 2011-12 magically reverse and will Canada and Greenland start warming over summertime? Maybe one summer out of the next few sees such a result, but I am banking on the contrary, especially if recent history is any indicator. While Siberia is going to scorch and burn each and every year, Canada is going to be increasingly white come 8/1 each year (and Greenland's melt pulses will be exactly that, I highly doubt it will endure any stretch of multi-month +++ anomalies outside of the times of year where such a result still leaves temps sub-freezing).

It is important to note that as the Arctic's capacity for cooling shrinks, Greenland's is seemingly growing to compensate, as well (both due to albedo and less oceanic heat immediately to its SE). That means as we approach a BOE CAB, Greenland is likely to begin *adding* seasonal SMB, even if calving continues. The side effects of increasing melt in Greenland as much as we already have result in so much cooling thereafter that any GHG reductions etc are already moot and we are doomed.  :)

The notion that Greenland could melt in 100 or 200 years is equally absurd. A mass loss of 1% of the GIS in a single 365-day span would result in the discharge of 28,500KM^3 worth of ice, which is substantially more than the entire Arctic Ice sheet measures at peak volume each winter nowadays. And all that would go into the NATL! We would quickly enter a winter far worse than Tambora's if such an event ever occurred.

For reference: this year it took 800KM^3 of additional SWE accumulated in North America as of ~4/15 (double normal) to result in a severe postponement of summer across most of the Shield, and much of Greenland altogether. Now that is *additional* SWE melt vs. normal (and resulting albedo feedbacks), but consider how *SMALL* that number is, and how BIG the Greenland melt numbers are for full melt, and then realize the implications of what happened this summer mean Greenland meltout is impossible because we entire spiral-snowball NHEM by the time it is down a couple tens of thousands of cubic KM.

PS:



...also did some googling re: Greenland's albedo this yr --



http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/

"High winter and spring snowfall, and a moderate initial pace of melting, resulted in a more reflective (higher albedo) surface for the ice sheet than in past summers. Since bright, fresh snow blanketed areas that were once darker, such as dirty snow or bare ice, July’s average albedo for the ice sheet was 5 to 9 percent above the 2000 to 2009 reference period."

Looks like the monthly albedo in July 2018 was about .78, possibly a record high, versus .72 in 2012, a record low. That is about an 8% increase in Greenland's reflectivity. And not only is Greenland getting whiter, the Arctic is still blue-ing and maybe has a bit more snow parts of the yr but by August, even this yr went snow-free. The contrast is worsening, but as Greenland keeps getting whiter and snowier (in fact according to NSIDC ^^^ this year had a SMB gain, even accounting for calving), its potency for generating PVs / Greenland airmasses will only grow stronger.

It must also be noted the biggest differential in Greenland's albedo vs. recent norm in 2018 was at a time of peak insolation. This is especially consequential because during wintertime, Greenland is mostly dark anyways. But an 8% difference in reflectivity over an area the size of Greenland in only six years is enormous! The forcing from the albedo differential is now overwhelming GHG input (or rather rising because of it, due to all the snow).

Assume Greenland keeps getting snowier through 2030. Is it unreasonable to expect albedoes rising upwards to 85-90%? What happens to temps then? The potential surely matches well with the extremely abrupt drops seen historically.

And a final note from NSIDC re: 2018 --

"As noted in the previous post, exceptional winter snow accumulation and heavy, summer snowfall, drove the net snow input mass to 130 billion tons above the 1981 to 2010 average. This was followed by a near-average melt and runoff period, resulting in a large net mass gain for the ice sheet in 2018 of 150 billion tons. This is the largest net gain from snowfall since 1996, and the highest snowfall since 1972. However, several major glaciers now flow significantly faster than in these earlier years. The net change in mass of the ice sheet overall, including this higher discharge of ice directly into the ocean, is not clear at this point but may be a smaller loss or even a small gain. This is similar to our assessment for 2017, and in sharp contrast to the conditions for the preceding decade."
« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 07:59:01 AM by bbr2314 »

Cid_Yama

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2598 on: October 25, 2018, 05:54:38 AM »
Climate Change Deniers have been rallying around a cooling Greenland.  Greenland did cool during the later half of the 20th century due to a positive NAO, which brought cooler and wetter weather to parts of Greenland.

Quote
Three major melt events during late July and August brought the 2018 Greenland melt season to a close. Overall, conditions on the ice sheet were slightly warmer than average for the second half of the summer.

 Three significant melt events peaked on July 17, July 31, and August 9. While none of these were exceptional, they were among the highest melt extents for those dates in the satellite record, at or above 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles)—roughly a third of the ice sheet. High atmospheric pressure contributed to the melt events on July 31 and August 9. Strong winds from the southeast were linked to the melt events on July 17 and July 31, and from the southwest on August 9. Surface temperatures during the events were generally 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average. Overall, higher-than-average temperatures of 0.5 to 1.2 degrees Celsius (0.9 to 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 mean characterized the second half of summer.
link


As for last year's Arctic report card:

Quote
Surface air temperatures observed on the ice sheet indicated a different pattern than those observed at coastal station, especially during summer 2017. Measurements at twenty coastal weather stations of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) indicate widespread above- or near-average air temperatures for the seasons of autumn 2016 through summer 2017 (relative to the average for the period 1981-2010), with the exception of spring in northeast Greenland. New record highs were set at a number of sites in autumn 2016, with absolute anomalies above +5° C (see Table 1).

This year's Arctic report card comes out in December.

Again, enhanced snowfall is due to increased atmospheric water vapor.  Any cooling is regional, localized to small parts of Greenland, and due to regional weather conditions.
 


« Last Edit: October 25, 2018, 06:03:38 AM by Cid_Yama »

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (October mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2599 on: October 25, 2018, 05:59:00 AM »
Climate Change Deniers have been rallying around a cooling Greenland.  Greenland did cool during the later half of the 20th century due to a positive NAO, which brought cooler and wetter weather to parts of Greenland.

Quote
Three major melt events during late July and August brought the 2018 Greenland melt season to a close. Overall, conditions on the ice sheet were slightly warmer than average for the second half of the summer.

 Three significant melt events peaked on July 17, July 31, and August 9. While none of these were exceptional, they were among the highest melt extents for those dates in the satellite record, at or above 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles)—roughly a third of the ice sheet. High atmospheric pressure contributed to the melt events on July 31 and August 9. Strong winds from the southeast were linked to the melt events on July 17 and July 31, and from the southwest on August 9. Surface temperatures during the events were generally 2 to 5 degrees Celsius (4 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 average. Overall, higher-than-average temperatures of 0.5 to 1.2 degrees Celsius (0.9 to 2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1981 to 2010 mean characterized the second half of summer.
link


As for last year's Arctic report card:

Quote
Surface air temperatures observed on the ice sheet indicated a different pattern than those observed at coastal station, especially during summer 2017. Measurements at twenty coastal weather stations of the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) indicate widespread above- or near-average air temperatures for the seasons of autumn 2016 through summer 2017 (relative to the average for the period 1981-2010), with the exception of spring in northeast Greenland. New record highs were set at a number of sites in autumn 2016, with absolute anomalies above +5° C (see Table 1).

This year's Arctic report card comes out in December.

 

I would just like to emphasize that I am not a denier, I think climate change is going to result in widespread + worsening areas of horrible heat, and limited areas of cryospheric crisis (though the balance will, IMO, shift from the former to the latter as we head deeper into CAB BOE). In fact I would assert my outlook is far worse than contemporary consensus on climate change because you are dealing with a simultaneous worsening of BOTH extremes rather than a static shift towards hot, with the increasing gradient between A and B ultimately responsible for the "superstorms" we are now seeing (with breakdown of normal jetstream, oceanic heat distribution to poles is increasingly sporadic and cyclonic -> hence why we see so many Cat 5s now).