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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (December 2019 )  (Read 1078103 times)

oren

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crandles

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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2852 on: July 02, 2019, 12:27:28 PM »
Thanks crandles. Must have been some weird caching problem. I now see 2019 too.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2853 on: July 02, 2019, 12:32:22 PM »
Hi Wipneus,
Could you please update the "AMSR2 melt extent" charts? They lack 2019.
Thanks.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extentA.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent.png

Done (the good graphs where overwritten by an old version hours later).

BTW, I prefer these newer graphs:

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extentC.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/grf/jaxa-amsr2-melt-extent-ratioC.png

The "C" means that data from Ascending and Descending orbits are combined.

The attached graphs for the day show that the ice 2019 is substantially more in melt than 2013-2018, absolutely and relatively. 2012 remains to be seen.

As always the data that I use is for research and validation. From the ADS website:
Quote
This product is opened to the public for the usages of research and validation of algorithms. The Arctic Data archive System (ADS) is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this data.



Sterks

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2854 on: July 02, 2019, 01:43:54 PM »
Great plot Wipneus, thank you!
So to assess the onset of surface melting we have now:
- Melt extent ratio
- Compactness (though dispersion plays a role)
- SMOS beige pixels chart
- Area anomaly cliffs
- Albedo Warming Potential (indirectly and here open water plays a big role)
-...

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2855 on: July 02, 2019, 04:40:01 PM »
Thank you Wipneus. Replaced previous bookmarks.

Phil.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2856 on: July 03, 2019, 01:02:15 PM »
Wipneus, any chance of increasing the font size of the legends on the graphs, they are rather difficult to read.  Thanks

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2857 on: July 05, 2019, 05:51:30 PM »
WHO ELSE IS REFRESHING THE VOLUME CHART EVERY FEW HOURS OMG WHERE IS SECOND HALF OF JUNE DATA GIVE IT TO ME NOW PLZ

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2858 on: July 05, 2019, 06:13:45 PM »
WHO ELSE IS REFRESHING THE VOLUME CHART EVERY FEW HOURS OMG WHERE IS SECOND HALF OF JUNE DATA GIVE IT TO ME NOW PLZ

guilty as charged LOL

 :o :o :o :o

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2859 on: July 05, 2019, 07:39:03 PM »
Who, me? Only two times today so far.  8)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2860 on: July 05, 2019, 07:51:59 PM »
Who, me? Only two times today so far.  8)
It is clearly an inter-governmental conspiracy.

petm

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2861 on: July 05, 2019, 07:54:45 PM »
Personally I blame you all because of your overzealous refreshes. A watched pot never boils... ;)

Blizzard92

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2862 on: July 05, 2019, 07:57:58 PM »
Sea ice thickness distribution and its anomaly for June 2019 (https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/)
UC Irvine - Earth System Science Ph.D. Candidate
Cornell University - Atmospheric Sciences B.Sc.

Twitter: @ZLabe
Website: http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2863 on: July 05, 2019, 10:10:06 PM »
Don't hoard the data, Zack! Give us the numbers!  ;) ;D
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Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2864 on: July 05, 2019, 10:24:45 PM »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2865 on: July 05, 2019, 10:28:36 PM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2866 on: July 05, 2019, 10:38:17 PM »
PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.

"My speculation that belongs to me" is that the Director of the centre received a phone call on Wednesday :-
" You and your staff WILL attend the President's Self-Glorification Ceremony at the Lincoln Memorial on July 4, or else".

With heavy hearts, the staff wasted their holiday - but afterwards got totally plastered/rat-shit/pissed at a good few bars later that evening.

Hence the delay in sending out the data.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sarat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2867 on: July 05, 2019, 10:58:42 PM »
Is it bad, is it good, is it average...!?

I hope it's that and not the June volume that landed them in that bar  ;)

Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2868 on: July 05, 2019, 11:00:06 PM »
PIOMAS Zack Labe June 2019
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

That one doesn't seem to have been updated yet...
Yes, Neven. You are right.
_________________________________________

PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.
It comes from Seattle, State of Washington:

Mailing Address:
Polar Science Center
Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washington
1013 NE 40th Street
Box 355640
Seattle, WA 98105-6698
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/about/contact-information/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2869 on: July 05, 2019, 11:03:36 PM »
PIOMAS Zack Labe June 2019
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/

That one doesn't seem to have been updated yet...
Yes, Neven. You are right.
_________________________________________

PIOMAS comes from the Polar Science Center, Washington D.C.
It comes from Seattle, State of Washington:

Mailing Address:
Polar Science Center
Applied Physics Laboratory
University of Washington
1013 NE 40th Street
Box 355640
Seattle, WA 98105-6698
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/about/contact-information/
Another speculation dies a death. Facts - a plague on them.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2870 on: July 06, 2019, 12:03:37 AM »
My best achievement on this forum ever was the email that I, Mr. nobody, wrote Dr. Zhang in 2017, explaining that PIOMAS numbers were eagerly awaited by all, and perhaps they could release the data twice a month. He wrote back sure, they'll try to do a mid-month update. And ever since, they did. I guess no one ever thought to ask...

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2871 on: July 06, 2019, 02:46:24 AM »
My best achievement on this forum ever was the email that I, Mr. nobody, wrote Dr. Zhang in 2017, explaining that PIOMAS numbers were eagerly awaited by all, and perhaps they could release the data twice a month. He wrote back sure, they'll try to do a mid-month update. And ever since, they did. I guess no one ever thought to ask...

I remember being impressed by this. You were placed into the "don't mess with" group after that.

petm

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #2872 on: July 06, 2019, 03:34:45 AM »
I guess it's a long weekend at the Polar Science Center :)

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2873 on: July 06, 2019, 07:17:04 AM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data (not the 'official' volume data yet).

Volume on 30th June was 12.05 [1000 km3], lowest value for the day of the year.

Let's animate.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2874 on: July 06, 2019, 07:27:02 AM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Click for larger pictures, helps reading the tiny fonts.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2875 on: July 06, 2019, 07:33:01 AM »
Fram export  was higher than average in June.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2877 on: July 06, 2019, 07:59:25 AM »
Thickness map, comparisons with previous years and their diff's.

You certainly want to click these to read the very small fonts (and even then...).

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2878 on: July 06, 2019, 08:25:12 AM »
Awesome, Wip, thanks a lot. You received five likes from me, and I wish I could give you more.  :)
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oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2879 on: July 06, 2019, 08:31:21 AM »
Thank you Wipneus.
Looking at the 2019-2012 comparison, I see a big warning sign. I am willing to bet my dubious reputation that the extra volume on the Atlantic side will disappear, and so will the Beaufort red blob in all probability. But the large difference in the CAA could linger and even grow and possibly affect the resulting minimum, maybe hurting the chances of a record. This is now, IMHO, 2019's big challenge.

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2880 on: July 06, 2019, 08:38:24 AM »
Thank you Wipneus.
Looking at the 2019-2012 comparison, I see a big warning sign. I am willing to bet my dubious reputation that the extra volume on the Atlantic side will disappear, and so will the Beaufort red blob in all probability. But the large difference in the CAA could linger and even grow and possibly affect the resulting minimum, maybe hurting the chances of a record. This is now, IMHO, 2019's big challenge.
I think it is this year's advantage moreso than its challenge as it is now easily in 1st place while also having +volume in Hudson etc which will melt out anyways (and the ATL front as you described). We are now clearly on path to a record minimum IMO.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2881 on: July 06, 2019, 08:40:34 AM »
Yes, only the weather can put a spanner in the works now. I think.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #2882 on: July 06, 2019, 08:55:11 AM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 30th June 2019 12,045 km3
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

In June 2019 volume has taken not so much a tumble as crashed and burned..
2019 volume now less than 2018 by 1,766 km3 (12.8%).

It is data that seems to back up numerous observations in the melting thread regarding the condition of the ice  - e.g.s  highly mobile, fractured, disintegrating, rubble, dispersed.

At average volume loss for the rest of the season, minimum volume would be around 3,300 km3, some 350 km3 below the current record minimum of 2012.
_______________________________________________________________
WIPNEUS got the data even though the Polar Science Center hasn't put it on their website yet.
Impressive
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 10:34:59 AM by gerontocrat »
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bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #2883 on: July 06, 2019, 09:10:33 AM »
3,300 KM^3 would be 10% less than 2012, which in itself is a huge reduction. If we are at 3,000 it's basically 20% below, and if we hit 2.5M it is losing a third of the ice relative to that minimum. I think 2,750-3,500KM^3 is a very reasonable estimate. But I wonder how much the global consequences differ at the upper end of that bound vs. the lower end. And then below.

That is to say, as we near the end of the sea ice's volume, does the impact of its demise on the NHEM's sensible weather increase exponentially as we near 0? Or will it just get ordinarily worse? We actually have no idea but IMO it could definitely be exponentially more terrible.

Rich

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #2884 on: July 06, 2019, 10:43:36 AM »
3,300 KM^3 would be 10% less than 2012, which in itself is a huge reduction. If we are at 3,000 it's basically 20% below, and if we hit 2.5M it is losing a third of the ice relative to that minimum. I think 2,750-3,500KM^3 is a very reasonable estimate. But I wonder how much the global consequences differ at the upper end of that bound vs. the lower end. And then below.

That is to say, as we near the end of the sea ice's volume, does the impact of its demise on the NHEM's sensible weather increase exponentially as we near 0? Or will it just get ordinarily worse? We actually have no idea but IMO it could definitely be exponentially more terrible.

I think this is an excellent question w/o an exact answer. If you open it up on another thread (perhaps under Consequences ??), I'd be happy to engage there.

Yuha

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2885 on: July 06, 2019, 11:25:06 AM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2886 on: July 06, 2019, 12:09:51 PM »
1) JUNE DATA & A LONGER TERM VIEW

I've had a look at the June data in the context of longer-term trends.

The September volume minimum has been declining at a linear trend of around 320 km3 per annum. The 2010's average minimum volume is just under 5,000 km3. Assuming
- 5,000 km3 as the 2010's midpoint value (i.e. 2004),
- and an average loss rate in the following 5 years of 320 km3 per annum,
then in 2019  the minimum volume would be 1,600 km3 less, i.e. 3,400 km3. This is just 100 km3 more than the result from assuming an average volume loss from now to minimum.

Then one could say that the result of the major volume loss in June was mainly to make it more likely to get the September minimum back a bit below trend. The data obviously has no view in whether remaining volume loss will be above, below or at average.

2) TEALIGHT'S HIGH ARCTIC (or the 7 Central Seas of Kara+Laptev+ESS+Chukchi+Beaufort+CAA+CAB)

High Arctic volume is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Area is lowest in the satellite record.
High Arctic Average thickness is 2nd lowest in the satellite record - 2017 being the lowest. This is simply because 2017 area was around 500,000 km2 more than 2019 at the end of June.

What really matters is that on volume and thickness 2019 is below 2012 and 2016.
What also matters is that 2019 Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) in the High Arctic is also highest.

So Albedo joins volume and thickness to suggest, that in the seas that matter from now to minimum, record low volume, thickness and area is more likely.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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petm

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2887 on: July 06, 2019, 01:49:42 PM »
Green means "go" for melt I guess... yikes!

Sterks

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2888 on: July 06, 2019, 02:02:59 PM »
That's a lot of relatively thick ice in Barents and beyond the Atlantic Front of the CAB.
Is it easy-to-melt ice? Not so sure. The tentacles over Barents, maybe. Retreat the front 100-200 km North of Svalbard? not really...
Then we have the CAA that started really really late.
This smells 2nd in September

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2889 on: July 06, 2019, 02:17:08 PM »
That's a lot of relatively thick ice in Barents and beyond the Atlantic Front of the CAB.
Is it easy-to-melt ice? Not so sure. The tentacles over Barents, maybe. Retreat the front 100-200 km North of Svalbard? not really...
Then we have the CAA that started really really late.
This smells 2nd in September

We also got to remember 2012 had the perfect GAC right over the perfect spot for separating the ice pack that year  which must of affected how low it went to some extent although the way the ice was then, it may of fell to the lowest on record anyways, just not spectacularly so. So I agree that 2nd lowest is perhaps more likely than the lowest but a headline nevertheless.

The volume figures are not surprising but dissapointing too see winters attempt to try and thicken it come to complete waste with the warm spring and summer. It's damage limitation time for the ice really.

Sterks

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2890 on: July 06, 2019, 02:26:47 PM »
Agreed.
Note however that the GAC per se had little effect on volume as the affected ice was already thin (see volume anom 2012 around Aug 5-10)

Pavel

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2891 on: July 06, 2019, 03:01:38 PM »
 I see the 50% probability of 2019 ending #1 in extent, 70% probability of #1 in volume and 99% of the highest AWP.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2892 on: July 06, 2019, 03:18:43 PM »
PIOMAS has updated the gridded thickness data (not the 'official' volume data yet).

Volume on 30th June was 12.05 [1000 km3], lowest value for the day of the year.

Let's animate.

Not unexpected given the weather for the last month but it sure is frightening watching the ice on the Pacific and Siberian sides of the Arctic basin getting its ass kicked.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2893 on: July 06, 2019, 03:29:12 PM »
Awesome, Wip, thanks a lot. You received five likes from me, and I wish I could give you more.  :)

Quite simply the most important posts each month chronicling the melt season and they appear like clockwork.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2894 on: July 06, 2019, 03:37:48 PM »
When comparing this year with 2012, keep in mind that the areas where 2012 had much more ice are Beaufort, Chukchi and ESS, all of which melted completely.

Agreed and this will also occur this year. It is somewhat troubling we need to rely on the Atlantic side in order to avoid a new minimum.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2895 on: July 06, 2019, 03:38:59 PM »
Fram export  was higher than average in June.

Even more so relative to the dwindling amount of ice volume in the near CAB.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2896 on: July 06, 2019, 04:06:25 PM »
Fram export  was higher than average in June.

Even more so relative to the dwindling amount of ice volume in the near CAB.

And some of the remain thick ice ( outside CAA ) has already tickets for the Fram Express...

subgeometer

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2897 on: July 06, 2019, 04:43:57 PM »
Updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

Click for larger pictures, helps reading the tiny fonts.

Thanks for the amazing work.

The data is stark - it looks like 2019  is 200 km3 ahead of 2012 at this point. That doesn't leave a lot of margin, given the weather and momentum

Edit: OOps, my bad, misread the graph. upped the difference 10X
« Last Edit: July 06, 2019, 04:50:56 PM by subgeometer »

maltose

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2898 on: July 06, 2019, 06:43:15 PM »
What is the average volume melt from July 1 to minimum?

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2899 on: July 06, 2019, 06:52:10 PM »
What is the average volume melt from July 1 to minimum?
2010's average 8,737 km3 per table Vol-1 posted earlier today.

From table Vol-3 posted earlier today..
Volume June 30 is 250 km3 less than 2012 on June 30,
and only 108 km3 less than 2017, that failed to live up to its promise of a low minimum.
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