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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)  (Read 1032612 times)

maltose

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2900 on: July 06, 2019, 07:06:51 PM »
Thanks! This helped me digest the severity of the drop. We are looking at a potential catastrophe this year!

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2901 on: July 07, 2019, 02:22:38 PM »
The following 3 attachments cover Loss from Max to day 181 in blue and Loss from day 181 to Min in red.

1. PIOMAS, complete set.
2. PIOMAS, 7 High Arctic seas as defined by tealight.
3. PIOMAS, 5 Arctic Basin seas.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2902 on: July 07, 2019, 02:38:15 PM »
Super graphs.

Those graphs all seem to say that volume loss has been increasing over the years in the first half of the melting season, and reasonably flat in the second half. (That I did not know at all, at all).

Look how 2010, 2011 and 2012 all made the big above average volume losses in the first half of the melting season and then averaged the remainder.

That would imply that even in a year of high volume loss, e.g. 2019, remaining volume loss would likely tend towards around average, in turn meaning that the above average volume loss recorded so far may not be increased further over the remainder of the season.

We will see

« Last Edit: July 07, 2019, 02:44:21 PM by gerontocrat »
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2903 on: July 07, 2019, 02:43:55 PM »
That would imply that in a "normal" year, remaining volume loss would be likely to tend towards around average, in turn meaning that the above average volume loss may not be increased further over the remainder of the season.

Look how 2010 and 2011 flattered to deceive in the forts half of the melting season.

Years after 2012 differed in the cold summer (especially in comparison with 2007 and 2012).

This year began with an extremely warm June (first place on a par with 2005).

This summer is likely to be very warm, comparable to 2007 and 2012.

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2904 on: July 07, 2019, 02:50:13 PM »

Years after 2012 differed in the cold summer (especially in comparison with 2007 and 2012).

This year began with an extremely warm June (first place on a par with 2005).

This summer is likely to be very warm, comparable to 2007 and 2012.
Looked at 2012 again and amended my post above.
2012 was a very warm late summer, but remaining volume loss was average.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2905 on: July 07, 2019, 02:58:08 PM »
The excellence of 2019 in terms of volume is immense now, and it will only increase.
This is due to the fact that in 2012, as compared with 2019, the excess of ice is on the Atlantic side, where the ice melts very little over the summer (high latitudes and direction against ice drift).

magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2906 on: July 07, 2019, 06:35:34 PM »
Super graphs.

Those graphs all seem to say that volume loss has been increasing over the years in the first half of the melting season, and reasonably flat in the second half. (That I did not know at all, at all).

Look how 2010, 2011 and 2012 all made the big above average volume losses in the first half of the melting season and then averaged the remainder.

That would imply that even in a year of high volume loss, e.g. 2019, remaining volume loss would likely tend towards around average, in turn meaning that the above average volume loss recorded so far may not be increased further over the remainder of the season.

We will see

since the volume, area and extent drop in general there is ever less to be lost of it in a given period, which is why the high arctic, where a lot remains to melt till now, the picture looks distinct from the arctic as a whole.

i'm sure that if you had given it a thorough thought you would have come to that logical result that is confirmed by the numbers.

BTW i hinted at that several times in the context of comparing the "distance" from max to min, and from given points in time to others.

once there will be zero 50% ice to start with, we shall end up at zero ice while the loss from max to min will be smaller than 50 years ago, simply because there was less to lose than was lost 50 years ago during summer.


Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2907 on: July 07, 2019, 09:23:06 PM »
What is the average volume melt from July 1 to minimum?
2010's average 8,737 km3 per table Vol-1 posted earlier today.

From table Vol-3 posted earlier today..
Volume June 30 is 250 km3 less than 2012 on June 30,
and only 108 km3 less than 2017, that failed to live up to its promise of a low minimum.
Do you have the June 2019 average ice volume at hand? http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/PIOMAS.2sst.monthly.Current.v2.1.txt is still not updated. Thanks

Juan C. García

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2908 on: July 08, 2019, 06:15:10 AM »
Do you have the June 2019 average ice volume at hand? http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/PIOMAS.2sst.monthly.Current.v2.1.txt is still not updated. Thanks
It has been updated now:

Lowest   Year    1,000 km3

    1st.   2017    15.400
    2nd.  2019    15.905
    3rd.   2012    16.002   
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2909 on: July 08, 2019, 08:54:24 AM »
Wow, look at average thickness drop. I'll have a PIOMAS update on the ASIB later today.

PS Volume drop for second half of June was 3989 km3, so I wasn't too far off with my 'around 3850 km3'.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2910 on: July 08, 2019, 09:06:30 AM »
Wow, look at average thickness drop. I'll have a PIOMAS update on the ASIB later today.

PS Volume drop for second half of June was 3989 km3, so I wasn't too far off with my 'around 3850 km3'.

That is the post of the season. Simple, boring, expected, and TRUE.
big time oops

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2911 on: July 08, 2019, 09:53:32 AM »
Volume still not in record territory when looking at the lagging indicator of the 365 day trailing average.

With 2019 volume currently more than 1,750 km3 less than 2018, the 365 day trailing average could be in record territory again sometime in March next year.

The only way is down, the only question is - how fast.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2912 on: July 08, 2019, 10:17:57 AM »
Is there a percentage volume drop from maximum chart anywhere?

RikW

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2913 on: July 08, 2019, 10:21:08 AM »
Nice graphs again here :)

If i read the graph correctly the arctic loses around 300k M3 volume a year? So reaching zero volume in september around the end of next decade is almost inevitable. (twice around 4.5M in the last couple of years) And with an outlier even earlier

gerontocrat

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2914 on: July 08, 2019, 10:30:45 AM »
Is there a percentage volume drop from maximum chart anywhere?
You can go to http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
or
Check out if Neven's done the biz for June on his ASIB,

Minimum losing about 320 km3 per annum,
Maximum losing about 270 km3 per annum,

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2915 on: July 08, 2019, 10:44:02 AM »
Thanks Gerontocrat. I should have been clearer.
A yearly percentage volume loss from that year's maximum, but thinking about it all the info is already in Pettit chart here http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/siv_annual_max_loss_and_ice_remaining.png

pikaia

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2916 on: July 08, 2019, 11:31:57 AM »
The volume anomaly at the end of June is more negative than it has ever been.


uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2917 on: July 08, 2019, 04:44:13 PM »
CAB volume loss from maximum of each year expressed as a percentage. 100% is at different dates.
2012-2019 edit: added 2011 for a different perspective. (2011 max was day104)
editt: Should have CAB in the title
« Last Edit: July 08, 2019, 08:53:41 PM by uniquorn »

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2918 on: July 08, 2019, 04:46:06 PM »
Awesome graph! Thanks, Uniquorn.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2919 on: July 08, 2019, 04:53:51 PM »
There is less ice to melt, sure.
The ice there is more difficult to melt, certainly.
But it is warmer and the ice is weaker.
 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2920 on: July 08, 2019, 06:42:21 PM »
The volume anomaly at the end of June is more negative than it has ever been.

In my opinion this statement is not true as the June volume anomaly is still in the light grey shaded area and not below it (as it was in 1981, 2010, 2011, and 2012).

Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2921 on: July 08, 2019, 06:42:59 PM »

It has been updated now:

Lowest   Year    1,000 km3

    1st.   2017    15.400
    2nd.  2019    15.905
    3rd.   2012    16.002   
Thank you Juan - and kind greetings from Germany.

bbr2314

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2922 on: July 08, 2019, 06:48:42 PM »
The volume anomaly at the end of June is more negative than it has ever been.

In my opinion this statement is not true as the June volume anomaly is still in the light grey shaded area and not below it (as it was in 1981, 2010, 2011, and 2012).
Your opinion is wrong... the light grey area is based on trend line, the June volume anomaly was MOST DEFINITELY the most negative it has ever been and this is not up for debate.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2923 on: July 08, 2019, 06:57:37 PM »
In my opinion this statement is not true as the June volume anomaly is still in the light grey shaded area and not below it (as it was in 1981, 2010, 2011, and 2012).

Think absolute, not relative numbers.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2924 on: July 08, 2019, 08:30:04 PM »
You're both right, it's just a matter of definition.
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magnamentis

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2925 on: July 08, 2019, 09:14:14 PM »
Volume still not in record territory when looking at the lagging indicator of the 365 day trailing average.

With 2019 volume currently more than 1,750 km3 less than 2018, the 365 day trailing average could be in record territory again sometime in March next year.

The only way is down, the only question is - how fast.

as i said elsewhere, volume loss will be smallest the year we get down to zero because there was only a fraction left to begin with.

i refer to one of my earlier replies to you. it's totally logical that drops get smaller from less

IMO to compare losses in km3 from ever less in total is misleading, one of the examples where a true fact does not draw the right picture.

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2926 on: July 08, 2019, 10:32:05 PM »
I'll have a PIOMAS update on the ASIB later today.

And here it is: PIOMAS July 2019

Conclusion: "I might be wrong, but I think that what we have seen at play during the second half of June, are the first signs of melting momentum making itself felt. I might be even more wrong, but I'm convinced that 2019 is assured of a top 3 spot when it hits the minimum in September, no matter what the weather does.

In fact, the only question on my mind right now, is: Can 2019 beat 2012? No, wait, I know it can. Allow me to rephrase. The only question on my mind right now, is: Will 2019 beat 2012?"
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slow wing

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2927 on: July 09, 2019, 03:35:12 AM »
Thanks Neven, great update, as usual!


Just want to check that I am understanding you correctly with your "top 3", which you have talked of several times.
I'm convinced that 2019 is assured of a top 3 spot when it hits the minimum in September

If you're talking about JAXA SIE September daily minimum then, with the way the data from previous years has fallen, this year is more likely to end up in 4th place than 3rd place.

That's because the bin width for 3rd (50,000 km^2)  is so much narrower than for 4th (190,000 km^2).

For it to be third, it would have to be greater than 4.02 but less than or equal to 4.07 million km^2 (hence the 50,000 km^2).


Might you instead mean "top 2" - that is, either first or second? That would apply for any 2019 lowest extent less than or equal to 4.02 million km^2.

Source: table posted by Juan Garcia in his poll thread.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 05:38:23 AM by slow wing »

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2928 on: July 09, 2019, 03:57:06 AM »
Right now, it's a battle with 2012. No one cares, nor is it scientifically interesting, if this year comes in 3rd or 4th.

To this date, 2019 is in the lead because this year leads in "albedo warming potential" and other measures of solar energy input to the Arctic ocean/atmosphere system.

However, the GAC was exceptional in 2012. it extracted ocean heat from well below 30m depth. It's going to be interesting to see how this melt season plays out because we still haven't determined how important the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) was to the record melt year of 2012.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2929 on: July 09, 2019, 04:29:04 AM »
Slow Wing, you write SIA but mean SIE. About extent you may be right, as the gap between 2nd and 3rd is quite small.
Actually in SIA (area) there was a large gap between 2016 which placed 2nd, and the year that placed 3rd (2007 or 2011, can't remember).
And I think Neven means top 3 in either extent, area or volume.

slow wing

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2930 on: July 09, 2019, 05:39:00 AM »
Slow Wing, you write SIA but mean SIE.
Thank you. Corrected.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2931 on: July 09, 2019, 07:00:08 AM »
Time for some regional volume charts. Thanks again to Wipneus for providing the data.

The Barents and Kara are both higher than 2012. The Chukchi is lower than 2012. Each is at around 200 km3 and all are headed towards zero.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2932 on: July 09, 2019, 07:20:05 AM »
The Laptev has crashed precipitously following the extreme June heat, and is currently tied with 2012. I expect it to head to zero, a feat only 1/3 of the years have managed.
The ESS is chugging along nicely, leading over 2012. I expect it to join the "hot years" at below 50 km3 or even 25 km3 by the date of the minimum, which could potentially arrive by day 250.
The Beaufort volume has flattened due to strong export of MYI from the CAB. Nevertheless, I expect it to get below 30 km3 by the date of the minimum, possibly even to zero.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 07:56:01 AM by oren »

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2933 on: July 09, 2019, 07:41:19 AM »
The CAA has been a late starter this year compared to 2012, and I expect it to reach between 100 and 250 km3 by the minimum. I'd be very surprised if it manages 50 km3 like 2012 and 2011 did.
The CAB, chief of the arctic, has seen a strong decline, giving 2012 a run for its money. Eyeballing the chart and considering the accumulated high arctic AWP, I expect the minimum to be less than 2016's and 2011's 3960 km3, and more probably above 2012's 3400 km3.  But there's also good probability for breaking that record, with melting weather and a GAC. This region, as usual, is the big question mark.
And don't forget the Greenland Sea, where high export years get punished. I expect volume at minimum to be between 200 and 300 km3, though 2017 and 2018 managed to get below 50 km3.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2934 on: July 09, 2019, 07:55:15 AM »
Making a probable summation, Beaufort + ESS + CAA should be around 250 km3 by the minimum (compared to 50km3 for 2012), and Greenland Sea another 250 km3. Adding the CAB should get the total to less than 4400 km3, with the lower limit not well defined.

Overall, I expect 2019 to pass 2016 (4400 km3) and 2011 (4300 km3) and reach 2nd place in volume. I'd be quite surprised if it manages to break 2012's 3670 km3 record.
« Last Edit: July 09, 2019, 08:01:35 AM by oren »

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2935 on: July 09, 2019, 10:06:04 AM »
And I think Neven means top 3 in either extent, area or volume.

Yes, overall third, maybe second, maybe fourth in some data sets. But clearly in there with 2007, 2011 and 2016.

However, the GAC was exceptional in 2012. it extracted ocean heat from well below 30m depth. It's going to be interesting to see how this melt season plays out because we still haven't determined how important the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) was to the record melt year of 2012.

Yes, this is one of the things I hope we get something of an answer to.

Making a probable summation, Beaufort + ESS + CAA should be around 250 km3 by the minimum (compared to 50km3 for 2012), and Greenland Sea another 250 km3. Adding the CAB should get the total to less than 4400 km3, with the lower limit not well defined.

Overall, I expect 2019 to pass 2016 (4400 km3) and 2011 (4300 km3) and reach 2nd place in volume. I'd be quite surprised if it manages to break 2012's 3670 km3 record.

Very nice summary, oren, thanks.
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Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2936 on: July 09, 2019, 03:57:33 PM »
The same graphs as before but using the CAB. As an interesting point I asked excel for the correlation coefficient for these graphs. This is what I got:

PIOMAS (2000-2018): -.52
High Arctic: -.10
Arctic Basin: .42
CAB: .77
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2937 on: July 11, 2019, 09:37:16 PM »
Wipneus, do you share the data for fram volume export somewhere?

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2938 on: July 12, 2019, 01:59:30 AM »
Another question Wipneus, you posted a chart last year that showed the distribution of PIOMAS thickness bins and was a good predictor of area at minimum, if I am not mistaken. Could you post it again this year?

grixm

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2939 on: July 14, 2019, 08:07:28 AM »
What is the difference between PIOMAS and DMI's thickness model? Is PIOMAS more accurate? DMI shows pretty different results, where PIOMAS has 2012 and 2019 pretty much tied for volume at this point, 2019 is lagging pretty far behind according to DMI:


Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2940 on: July 14, 2019, 08:22:18 AM »
Wipneus, do you share the data for fram volume export somewhere?

No, but I could if this is a request.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2941 on: July 14, 2019, 08:39:06 AM »
Another question Wipneus, you posted a chart last year that showed the distribution of PIOMAS thickness bins and was a good predictor of area at minimum, if I am not mistaken. Could you post it again this year?

That would be the gice graphs. For an explanation of gice see https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg152005.html#msg152005

Attached are the 30th June graphs.

El Cid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2942 on: July 14, 2019, 09:42:29 AM »
Thank you! This is the chart I was looking for!

Stephan

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2943 on: July 14, 2019, 11:43:20 AM »
Roughly calculating from the graphs (valid for June 30):
Since 1980 we have lost around a quarter of sea ice area, but around two quarters (one half) of sea ice volume. Pretty easy to be explained by the reduction of the fractions of thick and very thick ice. And there does not seem to be a change of this behaviour in the next years.

Archimid

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2944 on: July 14, 2019, 12:00:13 PM »
Quote
And there does not seem to be a change of this behaviour in the next years.

The leaders of our world and consensus science are betting our lives that there will be a change in this behavior. The loss of thick ice will stabilize and thin ice will work just as well as the thick ice of the past. This stabilization should last 3 to 5 decades.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2945 on: July 14, 2019, 12:20:16 PM »
Thanks a lot Wipneus.
It seems by looking at the red and cyan lines in the first chart, that this year has a shot at a very low Sep 10th area, similar to 2012 and 2016. It's not guaranteed of course, as some years such as 2017 did not reach the same level despite having a decent shot at the end of June.

uniquorn

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2946 on: July 14, 2019, 02:43:53 PM »
Wipneus, do you share the data for fram volume export somewhere?
No, but I could if this is a request.
Yes, please, it is a request. Maybe at the next update?

D-Penguin

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2947 on: July 15, 2019, 02:03:46 AM »
Quote
And there does not seem to be a change of this behaviour in the next years.

The leaders of our world and consensus science are betting our lives that there will be a change in this behavior. The loss of thick ice will stabilize and thin ice will work just as well as the thick ice of the past. This stabilization should last 3 to 5 decades.

And what happens to the heat balance of the arctic ocean when the thin ice melts out every summer?

philopek

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2948 on: July 15, 2019, 02:21:56 AM »
Quote
And there does not seem to be a change of this behaviour in the next years.

The leaders of our world and consensus science are betting our lives that there will be a change in this behavior. The loss of thick ice will stabilize and thin ice will work just as well as the thick ice of the past. This stabilization should last 3 to 5 decades.

And what happens to the heat balance of the arctic ocean when the thin ice melts out every summer?

Perhaps you find what you are looking for in that thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2800.0.html
« Last Edit: July 15, 2019, 07:58:00 PM by philopek »

D-Penguin

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #2949 on: July 15, 2019, 04:56:34 AM »
And what happens to the heat balance of the arctic ocean when the thin ice melts out every summer?

Perhaps you find what you are looking for in that thread: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2800.0.html
[/quote]

Thank you philopek