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Author Topic: Latest PIOMAS update (December 2019 )  (Read 1079017 times)

Yuha

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3000 on: August 04, 2019, 03:40:37 PM »
Wipneus, the thickness map in your post #2992 is last year's map not this year's.

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3001 on: August 04, 2019, 04:02:50 PM »
This year the transpolar drift has been strong and Fram export has been high compared to the last decade. The lack of Fram export in July has become the new normal as warm salty Atlantic water pushes back into the ice pack melting ice out before it reaches the Fram. There's also a summer seasonal tendency for winds that don't favor Fram export. That doesn't mean that export hasn't been high this year. The relatively high ice thickness on the Atlantic side of the basin is evidence of the strong transpolar drift that has affected the ice this year.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3002 on: August 04, 2019, 07:43:34 PM »
Wipneus, the thickness map in your post #2992 is last year's map not this year's.

Fixed, thanks for the notice.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3003 on: August 05, 2019, 07:25:30 AM »
Looking at the regional volume charts, there is a striking difference between the ESS and the Chukchi which have crashed far ahead of 2012, and the Laptev and the Beaufort which have managed to stabilize temporarily. The difference of course is the export from the CAB that has been feeding the latter seas.
Comparing with 2012, we know in hindsight that the ESS and Chukchi did go to zero eventually. OTOH, we don't know yet if the Laptev and Beaufort will manage to zero in 2019. My best-effort estimate does call for both to melt out by the date of the minimum.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3004 on: August 05, 2019, 08:13:04 AM »
Next come the question marks, where no amount of eyeballing can generate a reliable prediction. The Greenland Sea, where the halt of export has resulted immediately in a mini-crash, should reach the minimum with lower volume than 2012, but not much more can be said.
The CAA is consistently lagging 2012, and it's hard to say whether it will continue melting (e.g. 2010 trajectory) and possibly reach the 0.05-0.1 level later, or taper off into the distance a la 2016 or 2017. Most low years taper off from here, but this year is quite warm and still has the potential. My gut says partial taper.
In the CAB 2019 still maintains a healthy lead, some of it thanks to the above-mentioned export, and some thanks to the "crack" (of course both phenomena are related). However, in hindsight we know that 2012 had a mini-crash a week from now, thus giving it a serious advantage. This year could continue racing 2012 to the bottom, or could taper off following many other respectable years. My gut says race 2012 thanks to heavy preconditioning but probably finish 2nd, barring a GAC. My gut also says there should be a GAC, so...
Looking at the sum total of all regions participating in the minimum, the situation is similar, healthy lead but smaller than the mini-crash coming up in 2012, so same gut feeling: probable 2nd, but race not finished.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3005 on: August 06, 2019, 12:20:37 PM »
Piomas percentage remaining from maximum for CAB

FishOutofWater

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3006 on: August 06, 2019, 03:42:08 PM »
That highly anomalous steepening of the volume curve in mid-August 2012 is best explained, in my opinion, by Ekman pumping of heat from the Atlantic water layer into the surface ocean. Normal storms can't do this because they don't persist long enough to break up the strong density inversions. The GAC lasted ten days and was very intense at its peak. It was strong and persistent enough to break down the layering in a large volume of the Arctic ocean.

The buoy profiles were stunning. Ekman pumping by persistent high pressure areas has caused multiple episodes of upwelling along the continental shelf in the Beaufort sea, but I'm not aware of any storm other than the GAC causing a upwelling of mid-ocean water in the central Arctic ocean. There was a very large amount of energy involved in the rapid melting of ice in mid-August 2012. Because there were not large amounts of heat advected by the atmosphere, it must have come from the ocean.

This melting season atmospheric heat advection may be larger than it was in 2012, but so far storms are not persisting like the GAC, so we should perhaps expect less bottom melt from ocean heat than took place in August 2012. However, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic are very high this summer so there is a lot of ocean heat in the upper layers. Moreover, strong atmospheric heat advection has been persisting in the Arctic for months. We are going to get a chance to compare the effects of different processes on the melt minimum by comparing 2012 and 2019. The sea ice volume curves are a most important aspect of that comparison because they are a function of system enthalpy (heat).

SteveMDFP

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3007 on: August 06, 2019, 03:52:11 PM »

...
The buoy profiles were stunning. Ekman pumping by persistent high pressure areas has caused multiple episodes of upwelling along the continental shelf in the Beaufort sea, but I'm not aware of any storm other than the GAC causing a upwelling of mid-ocean water in the central Arctic ocean.  ...

This is an eloquent interpretation and elegant synthesis of disparate data into a summary.
Naturally, I agree.  ;-)

peterlvmeng

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3008 on: August 06, 2019, 03:54:02 PM »
That highly anomalous steepening of the volume curve in mid-August 2012 is best explained, in my opinion, by Ekman pumping of heat from the Atlantic water layer into the surface ocean. Normal storms can't do this because they don't persist long enough to break up the strong density inversions. The GAC lasted ten days and was very intense at its peak. It was strong and persistent enough to break down the layering in a large volume of the Arctic ocean.

The buoy profiles were stunning. Ekman pumping by persistent high pressure areas has caused multiple episodes of upwelling along the continental shelf in the Beaufort sea, but I'm not aware of any storm other than the GAC causing a upwelling of mid-ocean water in the central Arctic ocean. There was a very large amount of energy involved in the rapid melting of ice in mid-August 2012. Because there were not large amounts of heat advected by the atmosphere, it must have come from the ocean.

This melting season atmospheric heat advection may be larger than it was in 2012, but so far storms are not persisting like the GAC, so we should perhaps expect less bottom melt from ocean heat than took place in August 2012. However, sea surface temperatures in the Arctic are very high this summer so there is a lot of ocean heat in the upper layers. Moreover, strong atmospheric heat advection has been persisting in the Arctic for months. We are going to get a chance to compare the effects of different processes on the melt minimum by comparing 2012 and 2019. The sea ice volume curves are a most important aspect of that comparison because they are a function of system enthalpy (heat).

I agree. The central arctic ice pack is solid even after GAC. This year the central ice pack will not be as solid as 2012, maybe even weaker than 2016.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3009 on: August 06, 2019, 04:16:19 PM »

...
The buoy profiles were stunning. Ekman pumping by persistent high pressure areas has caused multiple episodes of upwelling along the continental shelf in the Beaufort sea, but I'm not aware of any storm other than the GAC causing a upwelling of mid-ocean water in the central Arctic ocean.  ...

This is an eloquent interpretation and elegant synthesis of disparate data into a summary.
Naturally, I agree.  ;-)
Yes, good summary.

be cause

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3010 on: August 06, 2019, 04:34:43 PM »
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EBNXh7cWwAAlPJ7.jpg:large  ... the Arctic death spiral updated .. b.c.

 ps.  borrowed from Eric Holthaus on twitter .. sorry you have to click to see ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

philopek

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3011 on: August 06, 2019, 05:24:11 PM »
Same w.o. click:

Hope it's ok, else I gonna remove it ;)

be cause

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3012 on: August 06, 2019, 06:45:05 PM »
cheers .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Neven

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3013 on: August 07, 2019, 11:30:22 PM »
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019)
« Reply #3014 on: August 11, 2019, 11:21:49 PM »
Correlation Coefficients between pre and post day 212

Piomas: -0.32344182
High Arctic: -0.227528106
Arctic Basin: 0.042631957
CAB: 0.724407856


Graphs attached.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3015 on: August 21, 2019, 08:41:26 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated., last date was 2019-08-17. Volume calculated from thickness was 4.81 [1000km3], second lowest behind 2012 (4.68 [1000km3]).

graphs are being prepared...

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3016 on: August 21, 2019, 08:49:31 AM »
Here is the animation for August until now.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3017 on: August 21, 2019, 08:50:44 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3018 on: August 21, 2019, 08:52:14 AM »
And the updated Fram volume export graph.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3019 on: August 21, 2019, 08:56:24 AM »
I have trouble uploading data and graphs to the 'arctischepinguin' google site. So the updates will be delayed until the google errors are resolved or I have found time to do it manually.

Pavel

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3020 on: August 21, 2019, 12:19:54 PM »
Thanks for the update. The race is over for the first place at minimum. But 2019 can take the lead again in the fall

philopek

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3021 on: August 21, 2019, 03:10:04 PM »
Thanks for the update. The race is over for the first place at minimum. But 2019 can take the lead again in the fall

"Most probably over" would be a more correct term

The right storm could finish off almost half o the ice still around when looking at piomas thickness maps, 70% of the remaining ice is below 50cm thick and the 60% of that ice is not a homogeneous ice-area but fragmented into small and tiniest pieces.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2019, 03:15:48 PM by philopek »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3022 on: August 21, 2019, 03:11:47 PM »
Thanks for the update. The race is over for the first place at minimum. But 2019 can take the lead again in the fall

We still have 3 weeks to minimum?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3023 on: August 21, 2019, 04:26:13 PM »
A wider long-term view - I use to remind myself of ice volume vulnerability.

From the POMAS source:- http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/
Quote

It takes energy to melt sea ice. How much energy? The energy required to melt the 16,400 Km3 of ice that are lost every year (1979-2010 average) from April to September as part of the natural annual cycle is about 5 x 10^21 Joules, 50 times the annual U.S. energy consumption.

To melt the additional 280 km3 of sea ice, the amount we have have been losing on an annual basis based on PIOMAS calculations, it takes roughly 8.6 x 10^19 Joules .

Data from https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html tells us that on average the annual increase in Global Heat Content was about 1.13 x 10^22 joules (last 10 years, 0-2000 metres).

So every year the oceans' additional heat content is 130 times that used to melt the average permanent annual loss in Arctic Ice Volume, and more than twice the energy used for the entire melt from max to min.  Just as well ocean heat does not seem to be migrating North very quickly - but AWP in the Arctic was somewhat large this year - and the effect on SSTs has not gone away.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (August 2019 mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3024 on: August 22, 2019, 01:45:47 PM »
Did a quick comparison between 2018 and 2019, just to get an idea of where the differences are - first removing thickness bins down to 1 meter and then 2 meters (click to run, some artifacts due to compression to keep filesize down).

It seems that 2018 had a lot more ice both in the 0.75-1.00 and 1.00-1.25 meter thickness range, mostly in the ESS region and around the pole. There doesn't seem to be a lot of difference in the area of ice with thickness up to 0.75 meters - this would probably mean that area and extent should follow the 2018 path, unless storms bring about unexpectedly high melt that can eat into the thicker ice.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3025 on: September 04, 2019, 08:28:36 AM »
PIOMAS gridded thickness data has updated (official volume data not yet). Volume on 31st August was 4.17 [1000km3], second lowest behind 2012 (3.93[1000km3]).

Here is the animation for August.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3026 on: September 04, 2019, 08:42:20 AM »
The volume and volume-anomaly graphs.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3027 on: September 04, 2019, 08:46:05 AM »
Looking at the graph I think 2019 is now guaranteed a 2nd place finish?

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3028 on: September 04, 2019, 08:46:25 AM »
Fram volume export was about normal for August: low.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3029 on: September 04, 2019, 08:47:03 AM »
Looking at the graph I think 2019 is now guaranteed a 2nd place finish?

Yes

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3030 on: September 04, 2019, 08:52:08 AM »
The thickness map on 2019-08-31, compared with previous years and the differences. All need a click for full size.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3032 on: September 04, 2019, 09:07:39 AM »
Thanks Wipneus!


Looking at the graph I think 2019 is now guaranteed a 2nd place finish?

Yes, at least. 2nd or 1st.
« Last Edit: September 04, 2019, 09:16:57 AM by slow wing »

Pavel

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3033 on: September 04, 2019, 09:38:48 AM »
Thanks for the update. The thickest remaining ice is now mooving to the  Fram strait. And 2019 has the highest AWP that one can expect the slow refreeze. I think 2019 Will take the 1st place again in October-November.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #3034 on: September 04, 2019, 06:45:23 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 31 August 2019  5.070  '000 km3
The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

In the second half of July and in August daily volume change was BELOW average on most days.

As a result 2019 volume is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, by 239 km3 (6.1%) compared with 2012, and guaranteed to be 2nd lowest minimum for the year by at least 410 km3 compared with 2011.
Current volume is :
- less than 2017 by 518 km3,
- less than 2016 by 522 km3,
- less than 2018 by 1,064 km3.

It is data that seems designed to make sure that observers such as me get no further clue as to the final minimum for the year..

At average volume loss for the rest of the season, minimum volume would be a nearly 3,900 km3, about 200km3 more than 2012.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3035 on: September 04, 2019, 08:08:14 PM »
PIOMAS Volume 31 August

Plume of projections from previous years' daily volume change attached.

Because the measure of area reduced in August at a rate slower than volume, the calculation of thickness suggests average thickness on 31 August is at a record low.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3036 on: September 06, 2019, 05:37:21 AM »
The thinnest ice ever for this date! That must be worthy of a headline.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3037 on: September 19, 2019, 02:32:36 PM »
Will there be an update for mid-september? If so when does it usually become available?

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019)
« Reply #3038 on: September 19, 2019, 02:54:42 PM »
Probably tomorrow +- 1 day.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3039 on: September 20, 2019, 08:55:21 AM »
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data was updated to the 15th of September. Volume (calculated from thickness) on that date was 4.06 [1000km3], second lowest for the day. The number  have been nearly constant at 4.05-4.06 for several days. Because my calculation sometimes differ with the official volume data by 0.01 I do not know if we have reached the minimum (my feeling is, it has).

Here is the animation of September thus far. 

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3040 on: September 20, 2019, 08:57:04 AM »
Here are the updated volume and volume-anomaly graphs. Click to enlarge.

Wipneus

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3041 on: September 20, 2019, 08:58:59 AM »
And the Fram volume export.

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3042 on: September 20, 2019, 09:03:09 AM »
Some people have use for the updated regional data files:

The daily data:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/data/PIOMAS-regional.txt.gz

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3043 on: September 20, 2019, 11:26:01 AM »
An update of the CAB volume and CAB thickness charts. CAB volume is 2nd place, like the total volume, but thickness is the lowest for the date.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2019, 03:41:24 PM by oren »

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (June 2019)
« Reply #3044 on: September 20, 2019, 02:40:31 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 15 September 2019  4.062  '000 km3

It looks likely the minimum happened on 14 September

The standard graphs and tables as I use for the JAXA extent data are attached.

Since the second half of July volume change was BELOW average on most days.

As a result 2019 volume is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, by 377 km3 (10.2%) compared with 2012, and guaranteed to be 2nd lowest minimum for the year by at least 250 km3 compared with the third lowest, 2011.

Current MINIMUM volume is :
- less than 2016 minimum by 350 km3,
- less than 2017 minimum by 480 km3,
- less than 2018 minimum by 951 km3,
- less than the 2010's average minimum by 912 km3,

and 72.4%, 10,619 km3 less than the 1980's average.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3045 on: September 20, 2019, 02:52:47 PM »
PIOMAS Volume as at 15 September 2019  4.062  '000 km3

A bit more


Looking forward a month or so, the plume of projections from the last 10 years daily changes suggests the minimum change, if it changes at all, will be marginal. Perhaps of more interest is that 2009 and 2018 increases were well below average, while other years are much closer to the average.

The 365 day trailing average continues to decline by about just under 3 km3 per day. This would lead to a new record 365 day low at the end of 2020.
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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (September 2019, mid-monthly update)
« Reply #3046 on: September 21, 2019, 12:29:18 AM »
The Arctic and climate change (1979 – 2019): What the ice record tells us
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/the-arctic-and-climate-change-1979-2019-what-the-ice-record-tells-us/
Quote
This story has been updated: 2019’s Arctic ice melt season started out with record heat and rapid ice loss. Though cooler weather prevailed in August, stalling the fall, by mid-September ice extent was dropping dramatically once again. Then this week, 2019 raced from fourth to second place — now behind only 2012, the record minimum.
With 2019 providing no reversal over past years, scientists continue to document and view the Arctic Death Spiral with increasing alarm. This story reviews the 40-year satellite record, along with some of the recent findings as to how Arctic ice declines are impacting the global climate.
Researchers are increasingly certain that melting ice and a warming Arctic are prime factors altering the northern jet stream, a river of air that circles the Arctic. A more erratic jet stream — with increased waviness and prone to stalling — is now thought to be driving the increasingly dire, extreme global weather seen in recent years.
The 40-year satellite record of rapidly vanishing Arctic ice — as seen in a new NASA video embedded within this article — is one of the most visible indicators of the intensifying climate crisis, and a loud warning to world leaders meeting at the UN in New York next week, of the urgent need to drastically cut carbon emissions.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #3047 on: September 22, 2019, 11:40:35 AM »
Time for some regional volume charts. Thanks again to Wipneus for providing the data.

The Barents and Kara are both higher than 2012. The Chukchi is lower than 2012. Each is at around 200 km3 and all are headed towards zero.
Time to review my predictions in this thread from 2.5 months ago regarding minimum volume, both total and regional. (Although it's still possible that PIOMAS could see a marginal new minimum in the few days after Sept 15th).

All three seas indeed went to zero as expected, but the Barents only did it in the last minute, thanks to persistent ice near Svalbard. While Chukchi went to zero on the earliest date on record.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #3048 on: September 22, 2019, 11:47:25 AM »
The Laptev has crashed precipitously following the extreme June heat, and is currently tied with 2012. I expect it to head to zero, a feat only 1/3 of the years have managed.
The ESS is chugging along nicely, leading over 2012. I expect it to join the "hot years" at below 50 km3 or even 25 km3 by the date of the minimum, which could potentially arrive by day 250.
The Beaufort volume has flattened due to strong export of MYI from the CAB. Nevertheless, I expect it to get below 30 km3 by the date of the minimum, possibly even to zero.
The Laptev surprisingly managed to keep some ice throughout the season, thanks to persistent export and a very weak August. It contributes 40 km3 to the total minimum. The ESS actually managed to hit zero, a rare achievement and 2nd earliest after 2007. The Beaufort cooperated and hit 15 km3.

oren

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Re: Latest PIOMAS update (July 2019)
« Reply #3049 on: September 22, 2019, 12:04:31 PM »
The CAA has been a late starter this year compared to 2012, and I expect it to reach between 100 and 250 km3 by the minimum. I'd be very surprised if it manages 50 km3 like 2012 and 2011 did.
The CAB, chief of the arctic, has seen a strong decline, giving 2012 a run for its money. Eyeballing the chart and considering the accumulated high arctic AWP, I expect the minimum to be less than 2016's and 2011's 3960 km3, and more probably above 2012's 3400 km3.  But there's also good probability for breaking that record, with melting weather and a GAC. This region, as usual, is the big question mark.
And don't forget the Greenland Sea, where high export years get punished. I expect volume at minimum to be between 200 and 300 km3, though 2017 and 2018 managed to get below 50 km3.
The CAA behaved as expected not joining 2011 and 2012 at the extreme low, although at 130 km3 it was rather on the low side of my expected range.
The CAB also cooperated and bottomed at 3760 km3. Melting weather we had in July but not in August, and the GAC I expected (based on high AWP in the inner basin) did not materialize. Despite all this, a strong 2nd place. One of these years, all three months Jun-Jul-Aug will be bad, maybe a GAC will come too, and the CAB record will be easily broken.
The big surprise was in the Greenland Sea, where persistent export throughout the early season basically stopped in the late season, and volume bottomed at 100 km3.