Next come the question marks, where no amount of eyeballing can generate a reliable prediction. The Greenland Sea, where the halt of export has resulted immediately in a mini-crash, should reach the minimum with lower volume than 2012, but not much more can be said.
The CAA is consistently lagging 2012, and it's hard to say whether it will continue melting (e.g. 2010 trajectory) and possibly reach the 0.05-0.1 level later, or taper off into the distance a la 2016 or 2017. Most low years taper off from here, but this year is quite warm and still has the potential. My gut says partial taper.
In the CAB 2019 still maintains a healthy lead, some of it thanks to the above-mentioned export, and some thanks to the "crack" (of course both phenomena are related). However, in hindsight we know that 2012 had a mini-crash a week from now, thus giving it a serious advantage. This year could continue racing 2012 to the bottom, or could taper off following many other respectable years. My gut says race 2012 thanks to heavy preconditioning but probably finish 2nd, barring a GAC. My gut also says there should be a GAC, so...
Looking at the sum total of all regions participating in the minimum, the situation is similar, healthy lead but smaller than the mini-crash coming up in 2012, so same gut feeling: probable 2nd, but race not finished.